Stocks
AMD stock up over 20% off the lows- outperform NVidia?AMD is still cheap relative to its growth and still way down from all time highs.
Seeking alpha analysts expect 25-30% annual growth in earnings yearly. The stock is still in the low 20s PE. Stock can double and still be a good business worth owning for the long term and let compounding earnings work.
Low rsi and bollinger bands gave us the signal to buy, we bought with leverage, now we are in the shares unlevered.
Target would be all time highs over the next 2-3 years.
AMD broke above its 1D MA50. Is the trend finally changing?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) broke today above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 5 months (since October 29 2024)! From that day after it has also been below a Lower Highs trend-line, basically the Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Down, which it marginally broke last week but today it smashed it.
A short-term pull-back based on the 1D RSI symmetry (with the August 20 2024 and May 28 2024 Highs) is possible but on the long-term we expect a full recovery on this Bullish Leg of at least +43.13% (like the August - September Leg).
As a result, we expect a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) test at $135.00.
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Nas100 - Huge bear trap or further downside?The Nasdaq 100 has recently broken a critical rising trendline that has supported its bullish trajectory for an extended period. This break signifies a potential shift in market sentiment, suggesting that the prior uptrend may be losing steam. When an established trendline is breached, it often signals a change in the market's direction, indicating that buyers are losing control and sellers are starting to assert dominance.
In addition to the trendline break, the Nasdaq 100 has now fallen below all of its key moving averages—namely, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. These moving averages are widely followed indicators of trend strength, and their loss is typically a bearish sign. When prices drop below these averages, it signals weakening momentum, and it becomes harder for the index to regain upward traction without strong buying pressure.
The weekly timeframe shows a beautiful support level if the bulls fail to reclaim all the key moving averages.
Together, the break of the rising trendline and the loss of key moving averages suggest that the Nasdaq 100 could be entering a phase of increased volatility and downward pressure. Traders should closely monitor the index for potential further declines or a failure to reclaim these key technical levels, as they could signal deeper market corrections.
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Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01: 9988 (BABA)
The price has broken out of a consolidation range that lasted approximately two years, supported by a normal volume distribution.
The stock has risen to meet the Fibonacci Extension resistance level of 161.8 at a price of 144 HKD. Currently, it is forming a sideways consolidation pattern on the smaller timeframe, establishing a base structure viewed as re-accumulation.
The 6-month target is set at the Fibonacci Extension level of 261.8, which corresponds to a price of 189 HKD. This target aligns with a price cluster based on the valuation from sensitivity analysis, using the forward EPS estimates for 2025-2026 as a key variable for calculations, along with the standard deviation of the price-to-earnings ratio.
Wait for the Right Moment to Accumulate Shares within the Consolidation Range
Purchase near the support level of the range when the price pulls back. Look for a candlestick reversal pattern as a signal to add to your position.
However, should the price break down to the lower consolidation range, the stock would lose its upward momentum, potentially leading to a prolonged period of consolidation or a deeper pullback to around 90 HKD.
Always have a plan and prioritize risk management.
NAK Long-Term BULLISHThis is on the monthly chart and very reliable .
NAK is nearing a total breakout of a descending trendline in place since 2012. In confluence with this, NAK has been staying around it's floor price for months now. It looks ready to launch from this base.
TP #1 = 1.15 (should be easy to reach)
TP #2 = 2.50 (likely to be reached longer term)
SL = 0.19
Current price at time of this post is 0.313
Risk is only $0.123 per share, while reward for TP#1 is $0.837 per share, but the potential for TP #2 is high and this would be a reward of $2.187 per share!
OH NO GUESS WHAT I FOUND $TSLA HEAD AND SHOULDERThe head and shoulders pattern is a chart formation in technical analysis that signals possible trend reversals, often suggesting a change from a bullish to a bearish trend. It features three peaks: a central "head" that is the highest, flanked by two "shoulders," with a neckline connecting the troughs between these peaks.
Tesla's stock is often viewed as a risky investment for several reasons:
High Valuation: NASDAQ:TSLA stock price is considered very high compared to traditional car manufacturers, with a much higher price-to-earnings ratio.
Market Volatility: The NASDAQ:TLSA price is highly volatile, influenced by factors like CEO Elon Musk's public comments, regulatory changes, and overall market sentiment.
Intense Competition: The electric vehicle market is becoming more competitive, with many established and new companies investing heavily in EV technology.
Production Issues: Tesla has experienced production and supply chain challenges, which can affect its ability to meet demand and maintain profitability.
Regulatory Risks: Changes in government policies and regulations, especially those related to environmental standards and EV incentives, can significantly impact Tesla's business.
While these points highlight potential risks, Tesla also has strengths such as strong brand recognition, technological innovation, and leadership in the EV market. It's important to consider both the risks and potential rewards when evaluating Tesla as an investment.
SELLL NOW!!!!!
Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) 1WTechnical Analysis
- The weekly chart of Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) shows a potential reversal after a prolonged downtrend.
- A breakout above the descending trendline and consolidation above $110.85 (0.786 Fibonacci) could signal the start of an upward movement.
- Key Resistance Levels: $132.06 – $146.95 – $161.85 – $180.28 – $210.07.
- Key Support Zone: $83.83 - $90.
- CCI and RSI indicators confirm improving sentiment.
A sustained breakout above $110-112 could lead to mid-term growth.
Fundamental Analysis
Crown Castle is one of the largest telecommunications infrastructure operators in the US.
- Stable revenues due to long-term contracts with telecom providers.
- Dividend yield of ~6%, making it attractive for long-term investors.
- 5G expansion and IoT growth create long-term opportunities.
Risks: High debt burden, interest rate impact, and competition with American Tower.
CCI has growth potential if it breaks above the $110-112 zone. However, macroeconomic risks remain relevant.
Lockheed Martin 1W Possible Scenario 1WTechnical Analysis 1W
The chart shows a second breakout of the weekly trendline, which could increase downside pressure on the price.
Key Levels:
- Support: $393.08 (0.236 Fibonacci), $324.65 (0 Fibonacci)
- Resistance: $439.70 (0.382 Fibonacci), $471.48 (0.5 Fibonacci), $500.00 (0.618 Fibonacci)
Indicators signal weakness, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Fundamental Analysis
Lockheed Martin is one of the world's largest defense contractors, specializing in aerospace, defense, and security. The company is known for producing the F-35 fighter jet, missile defense systems, and space exploration technologies.
Key Factors Affecting the Stock:
Financial Performance:
- Strong revenue growth supported by high government defense spending
- Solid backlog of contracts, ensuring future revenue stability
- However, potential budget constraints or shifting defense priorities could impact future earnings
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Factors:
- Rising global tensions (Ukraine, Middle East, Indo-Pacific) drive higher defense budgets worldwide
- US interest rates and inflation may affect long-term government contracts
- Potential NATO expansion and Indo-Pacific security agreements could bring new contract opportunities
Competition & Industry Risks:
- Competes with Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and General Dynamics
- Cost overruns and supply chain disruptions could pressure profit margins
- The US government's shift to AI-driven warfare and cyber defense might change future contract allocations
Conclusion:
A breakdown below $393.08 could open the way toward $324.65, signaling a deeper correction. To regain an uptrend, the price must reclaim the $439.70 resistance level.
Adyen (ADYEN) – Technical Analysis and 1W OutlookTechnical Analysis
Adyen's stock is forming a symmetrical triangle, indicating a potential breakout. The recent price surge confirmed the pattern's breakout, but a correction toward the 0.618 Fibonacci level (1457.2 EUR) is possible, acting as a key buying zone.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1720.8 EUR (0.5 Fibonacci), 2311 EUR (0.236 Fibonacci)
Support: 1457.2 EUR (0.618 Fibonacci), 1081.8 EUR (0.786 Fibonacci)
Target: 2838 EUR
Indicators suggest a potential continuation of the uptrend:
MACD is signaling bullish momentum
Stochastic indicates a possible correction before further upside
Fundamental Analysis
Adyen is a leading player in the payment technology sector, serving major companies like Uber, Spotify, and Microsoft.
Key Factors Impacting the Stock:
Financial Performance: Recent earnings reports showed revenue growth driven by increased payment volumes.
Macroeconomics: Lower inflation and potential interest rate cuts could benefit the tech sector.
Competition: Pressure from PayPal and Stripe remains a key risk.
Adyen maintains bullish potential following the triangle breakout. The 1457-1500 EUR zone is crucial for trend confirmation, with a possible long-term target at 2838 EUR. However, a short-term correction remains possible.
Wingstop Inc. (WING) 1WTechnical Analysis 1W
The chart shows a breakout of the weekly uptrend line, signaling potential further downside.
Key Levels:
-Support: 206.49 USD (0.382 Fib), 152.93 USD (0.236 Fib), 66.36 USD (0 Fib)
- Resistance: 249.78 USD (0.5 Fib), 293.07 USD (0.618 Fib), 354.70 USD (0.786 Fib)
Indicators suggest weakness.
Fundamental Analysis:
Wingstop specializes in chicken wings.
Key Factors:
- Financials: Revenue growth, but high valuation increases correction risk
- Macroeconomics: Interest rates impact consumer spending
- Competition: Pressure from McDonald's and KFC
Conclusion: A break below 152.93 USD could lead to 66.36 USD. Bulls need a recovery above 249.78 USD for trend reversal.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 24–28, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Inflation Data 📈: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February on Friday, March 28. This index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, maintaining a 2.5% year-over-year growth. These figures will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇬🇧💼 UK's Spring Statement and Economic Outlook 💼: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the UK's Spring Statement to Parliament this week, addressing revised growth forecasts and fiscal policies. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower growth estimates, potentially impacting global markets, including the U.S., due to economic interlinkages.
🇨🇳📊 China's Manufacturing and Services PMIs 📊: China will release its official Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) for March on March 28. These indicators will provide insights into the health of China's economy, with potential implications for global trade and U.S. markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Monday, March 24:
🏭 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET) 🏭:
Forecast: 51.5
Previous: 52.7
This index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion.
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
This index measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions, with higher readings indicating greater confidence.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏘️:
Forecast: 679,000 annualized units
Previous: 657,000
This report indicates the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month, reflecting the health of the housing market.
📅 Wednesday, March 26:
🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️:
Forecast: -1.0%
Previous: 3.2%
This data reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
📅 Thursday, March 27:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 223,000
This report provides the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market.
📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📈:
Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth
Previous: 2.3%
This release provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:
Forecast: 1.0%
Previous: -4.6%
This index measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales.
📅 Friday, March 28:
💵 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💵:
Forecast for Personal Income: 0.4%
Previous: 0.9%
Forecast for Personal Spending: 0.6%
Previous: -0.2%
This report indicates changes in personal income and spending, providing insights into consumer behavior.
💹 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💹:
Forecast: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
Previous: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
This index measures changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:
Previous: 592 rigs
This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
GOOGLE Bottom confirmed. Laying eyes on $220.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 10 2024 High. Last week, the Bearish Leg touched the pattern's bottom, completing a -23.92% decline from the top, which is almost symmetrical to the previous Bearish Leg (-23.32%).
At the same time the 1D RSI got oversold (<30.00) and recovered on a Bullish Divergence, while the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), forming a Bearish Cross. Last time we had this formation was September 06 2024 and 1 day later, the bottom (Higher Low of the Channel Up) was formed.
Among all this, the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is holding, which is the market's long-term Support since July 12 2023. As a result, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start and as the previous one did, target the 1.236 Fibonacci extension at $220.00.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸🛍️ Amazon Spring Sale Impact 🛍️: Amazon’s Big Spring Sale is underway, and increased consumer activity could lift retail sector sentiment this week. Watch for broader impacts on e-commerce competitors and discretionary stocks.
🇬🇧📉 UK Growth Outlook Cut 📉: Ahead of the UK's Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise growth forecasts downward. While not U.S.-centric, weaker UK economic momentum may influence broader global risk sentiment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🏠 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET):
Forecast: +4.4% YoY
Previous: +4.5% YoY
A gauge of housing market strength based on home price changes in 20 U.S. metro areas.
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
Measures consumers’ outlook on business and labor conditions. A key sentiment driver.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 679K annualized
Previous: 657K
Tracks the number of newly constructed homes sold. Sensitive to rates and affordability.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
#MSFT - HTF Distribution - Waiting for key levels to be taken.Clear HTF distribution. There’s a potential pullback (if it occurs) into the 1W PHOB before a downward continuation.
Personally, I’d like to get involved between the HTF Demand zone and the 1M PHOB + 4W HOB, which, in my opinion, could serve as a potential reversal level, so keep an 👀 out
MicroStrategy To $370?Hello friends! I'm back with an analysis of MSTR. As we can see, the price had a significant drop of 57% from November 2024 to March 2025. The price is highly correlated with Bitcoin, and said cryptocurrency is in a wave 4 within an Elliott wave pattern. Therefore, Bitcoin will be returning to test $110,000. Therefore, MSTR, holding 499,096 bitcoins, will see a very significant rise in its price. In the short term, MSTR will be going to test its luck at $370 per share. However, it is highly likely that it could return to $410 per share. MSTR has many technical and fundamental indicators in its favor to be a highly profitable value asset. The best buying zones are below $300 per share.
Disclaimer: This is only an opinion; it should not be used as investment advice or recommendation.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603.
Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.