Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) - A Deep Dive Trading GuideIntroduction
Inversion Fair Value Gaps (IFVGs) are an advanced price action concept rooted in Smart Money theory. Unlike standard Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), IFVGs consider the idea of price revisiting inefficiencies from an inverse perspective. When price "respects" a previously violated gap from the opposite side, it creates a powerful confluence for entries or exits.
This guide will cover:
- What an IFVG is
- How it differs from traditional FVGs
- Market context for IFVG setups
- How to trade them effectively
- Real chart examples for clarity
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What is an IFVG?
An Inversion Fair Value Gap (IFVG) occurs when price trades through a traditional Fair Value Gap and later returns to that area, but instead of continuing in the original direction, it uses the gap as a support or resistance from the other side.
Standard FVG vs. IFVG:
- FVG: Price creates a gap (imbalance), and we expect a return to the gap for mitigation.
- IFVG: Price violates the FVG, but instead of invalidation, it respects it from the other side.
Example Logic: A bullish FVG is formed -> price trades through it -> later, price revisits the FVG from below and uses it as resistance.
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Structure and Market Context
Understanding structure is key when trading IFVGs. Price must break structure convincingly through a Fair Value Gap. The gap then acts as an inversion zone for future reactions.
Ideal Market Conditions for IFVGs:
1. Market is trending or has recently had a strong impulsive move.
2. A Fair Value Gap is created and violated with displacement .
3. Price retraces back to the FVG from the opposite side .
4. The gap holds as support/resistance, indicating smart money has respected the zone.
---
Types of IFVGs
1. Bullish IFVG: Price trades up through a bearish FVG and later uses it as support.
2. Bearish IFVG: Price trades down through a bullish FVG and later uses it as resistance.
Note: The best IFVGs are often aligned with Order Blocks, liquidity levels, or SMT divergences.
---
How to Trade IFVGs
1. Identify a clear Fair Value Gap in a trending market.
2. Wait for price to break through the FVG with momentum .
3. Mark the original FVG zone on your chart.
4. Monitor for price to revisit the zone from the other side.
5. Look for reaction + market structure shift on lower timeframes.
6. Enter trade with a clear stop loss just beyond the IFVG.
Entry Confluences:
- SMT divergence
- Order Block inside or near the IFVG
- Breaker Blocks
- Time of day (e.g., NY open)
---
Refined Entries & Risk Management
Once the IFVG is identified and price begins to react, refine entries using:
- Lower timeframe market structure shift
- Liquidity sweeps just before tapping the zone
- Candle closures showing rejection
Risk Management Tips:
- Set stop loss just beyond the IFVG opposite wick
- Use partials at 1:2 RR and scale out based on structure
- Don’t chase missed entries—wait for clean setups
---
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Confusing IFVG with invalidated FVGs
- Trading them in low volume or choppy conditions
- Ignoring market context or structure shifts
- Blindly entering on first touch without confirmation
Tip: Let price prove the level—wait for reaction, not prediction.
---
Final Thoughts
IFVGs are an advanced but powerful tool when used with precision. They highlight how Smart Money uses inefficiencies in both directions, and when combined with other concepts, they can form sniper-like entries.
Practice finding IFVGs on historical charts. Combine them with SMT divergences, OBs, and market structure, and soon you’ll start seeing the market through Smart Money eyes.
Happy Trading!
Stocks
US 100 - At a Critical Crossroads The US 100 index shows intriguing price action as it navigates key technical levels. Currently trading at 18,967.2 , the market has formed a clear double top pattern at the resistance zone, suggesting potential exhaustion in the uptrend.
Key Technical Observations:
The chart reveals strong resistance near recent highs around 19,024.3 , with price struggling to break through this ceiling. Below current levels, we spot a double bottom formation that previously provided support, creating an interesting tension between these patterns.
Notable price levels include:
- Resistance: 19,024.3 (double top confirmation)
- Support: 18,961.7 (recent swing low)
- Critical zone: The weakened gap that remains to be filled below current prices
Market Dynamics:
The minimal +0.02% change indicates indecision at these levels. The presence of liquidity pools both above and below suggests potential for volatility when either side gives way.
Trading Considerations:
A break above the double top resistance could signal continuation of the uptrend, while failure to hold current levels may see price test lower supports to fill the gap. The tight range between 18,961.7 and 19,024.3 suggests an impending volatility expansion.
The market appears to be at an inflection point where the next directional move could be significant. Traders should watch for either a confirmed breakout above resistance or breakdown below support before committing to positions.
Final Note: This technical setup presents clear risk/reward opportunities, but requires confirmation before acting. The double top pattern would only be validated by a break below the interim support levels.
Disclaimer: Market conditions can change rapidly. This analysis represents one interpretation of current price action and should be verified with additional indicators. Always use proper risk management.
S&P 500 Index Most Bullish Signal In 15 YearsThis is why it is very clear, certain, that the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is set to grow in the coming months. Last week produced the highest volume session, on the bullish side, since April/May 2010, that's 15 years. Back then, when this signal showed up, this index went to grow for years non-stop.
The SPX also produced the strongest weekly session in several decades, maybe the strongest week ever, and a bounce happened (support found) exactly at the 0.618 retracement Fib.
This is all we need to know. When the bulls enter the market and do so with force, it is because the market is set to grow. The correction produced decline of 21%. This is pretty standard. The fact that the correction happened really fast, it means that it will also have a fast end.
The low is in. The correction is over. The S&P 500 Index is set to grow.
You can be certain. If you have any doubts, just ask the chart.
Namaste.
Nvidia: Bullish Monday?A new week is about to get started and we would like to know if the NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) chart supports a bullish Monday.
What is the chart saying on the daily timeframe?
The chart has many positive signals and support a strong week but...
Good Sunday my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, how are you feeling in this wonderful day?
I hope you are doing great.
Let's read the chart; together, let's trade!
The chart looks really good and the short-term can always surprise, anything goes.
The chart is saying, "up, straight up," and even though the markets are unpredictable, I can easily tell you what the market is doing and is most likely to happen after the weekly close.
NVDA is super bullish and likely to continue growing based on multiple signals:
1) The falling wedge pattern is already confirmed. The action broke above it.
2) The trading volume supports a continuation of the pattern breakout.
3) The correction was really strong but the reaction to support was even stronger. Such a strong reaction indicates that traders were anxious and ready to buy. The only reason to sell was based on political bad news. With the bad news removed, up we go. NVDA is solid and with Bitcoin and mining growing, the market expanding, AI, NVDA is set to follow and also grow.
4) Both the 0.786 and 0.618 Fib. retracement levels are major support and gauge the strength of a stock. If the action is happening below, bearish; when the action happens above bullish. The fact that the action moved below just to recover makes this a strong bullish signal. A failed signal for the bears because they failed to move prices lower. A strong bullish signals for the bulls because the action is back above long-term critical support.
5) The session 10-April closed as a hammer and this also points up.
6) Finally, NVDA managed to close daily above EMA8, EMA13 and EMA21. Short-term bullish bias is now valid, active and confirmed.
All these are bullish signals saying that the market will move higher next.
What needs to happen for all this to become invalid?
NVDA would need to close daily below the last low.
No need to worry about short-term moves and noise. We are going up long-term.
The correction here reached more than 43%. Believe it or not, a 43% drop is a very strong drop. For the market to go lower, it would need to be the end of the company or worse. What need is there for a stock like this one, with a great product in huge demand, to drop by 80%, for what reason?
We are going up.
Namaste.
MARA Holdings, Inc.: Your Altcoin ChoiceThis is obviously not an Altcoin but it was requested in the Altcoin Choice session that we did recently, so here is the analysis.
MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) . It looks good.
A long-term higher low has been established. MARA produced a low first in October 2023. This was followed by a series of swings and waves. Reaching the later part of 2024, the action turned full bearish and now in April 2025 MARA Holdings seems to be ready to go bullish again. And here the stock printed a higher low.
A long-term higher low will lead to a long-term higher high. The last peak happened in February 2024 at 34.09. The next higher high at 42.86 is an easy one and should happen in 2025. It can definitely go higher but I am no stocks expert so can't dig any deeper for you.
In support of these signals, I looked for the RSI and found a small bullish divergence. It is only a month old but it is still a bullish divergence and it is valid. The reading on the RSI is also good and supports a new wave of growth. It seems Crypto and the stock market are now one.
Trading volume is standard and average and does not support our bullish bias, but it doesn't negate either. Average volume with no change on the upside or downside supports a neutral market. A market on autopilot. If there was a bearish move this bearish move is not strong as it is not supported by volume. So the early reversal signals can be good as there is nothing to hold the bearish wave. Things can change, but we are not talking about that, we are looking at the chart and what it currently says.
The chart is saying that MARA can start to grow in the coming weeks and days. If this growth develops, it can last months and end up in a new high, a higher high based on the long-term.
Thank you for reading and for your continued support.
Namaste.
GOOGLE's generational bottom made. This is how it reaches $350.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) almost tested last week its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). That level has been holding for more than 2 years (since March 13 2023) and it's been the main Support of the Bull Cycle that followed the November 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom.
The pattern is almost like the Ascending Triangle that led to the March 2020 COVID crash, which was the most recent time before the late 2022 bottom that the stock made contact with the 1W MA200. As you realize, all those times have been what we call 'generational bottoms', thus extremely good long-term buy opportunities. And as you see they've been on extremely tight time symmetry, all took place roughly every 2.5 years.
If the pattern continues to repeat itself, then we may witness a rally (green Channel Up) similar to the one that peaked on November 2021 and reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, setting a $350 Target would be more than realistic based on this pattern.
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 14–17, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🏦 Major Financial Earnings Reports: This week, investors will focus on earnings from prominent financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. These reports will provide insights into the financial sector's health amid recent market volatility.
📺 Tech and Healthcare Earnings: Key tech and healthcare companies such as Netflix, TSMC, and UnitedHealth Group are also scheduled to release earnings. Analysts will scrutinize these reports for indications of sector performance and future outlooks.
🏠 Housing Market Indicators: The release of housing starts data and a homebuilder confidence survey will shed light on the housing sector's response to recent economic conditions and tariff implementations.
🇪🇺 European Central Bank Meeting (April 17): The ECB is expected to address recent tariff developments and may announce interest rate decisions in response to economic pressures.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 14:
🗣️ Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker Speaks (6:00 PM ET): Insights into regional economic conditions and monetary policy perspectives may be provided.
🗣️ Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Speaks (7:40 PM ET): Remarks may offer perspectives on economic developments and policy considerations.
📅 Tuesday, April 15:
📈 Import Price Index (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.4%
Measures the change in the price of imported goods, indicating inflationary pressures.
🏭 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -10.0
Previous: -20.0
Assesses manufacturing activity in New York State, providing early insights into industrial performance.
📅 Wednesday, April 16:
🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +1.2%
Previous: +0.2%
Indicates consumer spending trends, a primary driver of economic growth.
🏭 Industrial Production (9:15 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: +0.7%
Measures the output of factories, mines, and utilities, reflecting industrial sector health.
🏠 Homebuilder Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 38
Previous: 39
Gauges builder sentiment in the housing market, indicating construction activity trends.
📅 Thursday, April 17:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 223,000
Previous: --
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 1.41 million
Previous: 1.5 million
Tracks the number of new residential construction projects begun, indicating housing market strength.
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 3.7
Previous: 12.5
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region, providing insights into sector health.
🏦 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision, with markets anticipating a potential cut in response to tariff impacts.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysi
Quantum's NVDA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. AI chip dominance drives optimism, but tariff risks and valuation concerns temper enthusiasm. Chatter posts split—bulls see growth, bears eye correction.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $110, with $105 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $108-$110 buys to $115 if $108 holds. Bearish below $108 risks $105.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $NVDA.
Earnings: Q1 due May; no update today.
Chatter: Debates AI growth vs. tariff/supply chain risks.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): No confirmed NASDAQ:NVDA M&A; AI chip partnerships rumored.
Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:NVDA ; stock swung (April 3-9).
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~50 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~45 (neutral).
MFI: ~40 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$112 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$115 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness.
Daily:
RSI: ~48 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
MFI: ~45 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$112 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$115 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback.
Hourly:
RSI: ~45 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
MFI: ~50 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$112 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$115 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing.
Price Context: $110.93 (April 11), 1M: -9%, 1Y: +28%. Range $105-$120, testing $110 support.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $115 (12,000, 60% ask), $120 (10,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets.
Puts: $105 (8,000, 70% bid), $108 (6,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $108.
Open Interest:
Calls: $115 (35,000, +6,000), $120 (25,000, +5,000). Bullish interest.
Puts: $105 (20,000, flat), $108 (22,000, +3,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0.
IV Skew:
Calls: $115 (40%), $120 (42%, up 3%). $120 IV rise shows upside hope.
Puts: $105 (35%, down 2%), $108 (36%). Falling $105 IV supports floor.
Probability: 60% $105-$120, 20% <$105.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $110.
Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $110.
GEX: +60,000. Stabilizes range.
DEX: +8M shares, neutral.
Karsan view: GEX holds $105-$120; tariff news key.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Neutral, $105 support, $120 resistance. No $NVDA/ NASDAQ:AMD divergence.
Daily: Bullish at $110 FVG, targets $115. Bearish < $108.
1-Hour: Bullish >$110, $115 target. MSS at $108.
10-Minute: OTE ($109-$111, $110) for buys, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $108-$110 to $115. Options show $115 calls. Fed cuts aid.
Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $105-$120 range.
Bearish: 15%. Below $105 possible with tariffs. $105 put volume grows
HOOD daily chart: breakout or fakeout? Key zone approaching.Robinhood's stock has formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential bullish reversal. The price has broken above the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $44.00, suggesting further upside potential. Next targets are $48.40, $52.79, $58.22, and $67.00. RSI and MACD indicators confirm bullish momentum.
Fundamental Factors:
Robinhood continues to show revenue and profit growth, supporting positive investor sentiment. The company is expanding its services and attracting new users, strengthening its market position.
Scenarios:
Main scenario: continued rise to $48.40, then to $52.79 and higher.
Alternative scenario: pullback to $39.71 with potential decline to $36.00.
“Markets are strong” – Are they really?President Trump recently stated that "markets became very strong once they got used to tariffs."
But let’s look at the facts:
📊 AMEX:SPY is down -9% YTD, and major names like:
MSFT: -7.55%
AAPL: -18.66%
NVDA: -12.94%
Tech is bleeding, and the broader S&P 500 is clearly reflecting the pressure of trade policy uncertainty.
🟥 Tariffs = market stress
🟩 Market resilience = not the same as strength
What we’re seeing is not a “strong market” — it’s a market under pressure trying to survive political noise. The weekly chart shows a clear drop after the peak, followed by uncertainty, not conviction.
💭 Is this truly the “strength” investors want to see?
Quantum's PLTR Trading GuideSentiment: Bullish. AI and government contract hype drives enthusiasm, though valuation risks noted. Chatter lean bullish, citing growth momentum.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $88, with $85 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $86-$88 buys to $92 if $86 holds. Bearish below $86 risks $80.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts aid growth stocks, positive for $PLTR.
Earnings: Q1 due early May; no update today.
Chatter: Bullish on AI/contracts, some warn of pullback.
Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): No confirmed NASDAQ:PLTR M&A; partnership expansions rumored.
Other: Tariff volatility hit tech; NASDAQ:PLTR resilient.
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~75 (overbought).
Stochastic: ~85 (overbought).
MFI: ~80 (overbought).
SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish).
Interpretation: Overbought, bullish SMAs suggest pullback risk.
Daily:
RSI: ~72 (overbought).
Stochastic: ~80 (overbought).
MFI: ~75 (overbought).
SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish).
Interpretation: Overbought, bullish SMAs but caution warranted.
Hourly:
RSI: ~70 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~75 (overbought).
MFI: ~70 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$86 (above, bullish), 20-day ~$85 (above, bullish).
Interpretation: Overbought, bullish momentum fading.
Price Context: $88.55, 1M: +2%, 1Y: +303%. Range $80-$92, testing $88 resistance.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $90 (10,000, 60% ask), $95 (8,000, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $90+.
Puts: $85 (7,000, 70% bid), $80 (5,000, 65% bid). Put buying grows.
Open Interest:
Calls: $90 (30,000, +5,000), $95 (20,000, +4,000). Bullish positions.
Puts: $85 (18,000, +3,000), $80 (15,000, +2,000). Hedging. Put-call ~0.7.
IV Skew:
Calls: $90 (45%), $95 (47%, up 3%). $95 IV rise shows upside bets.
Puts: $85 (40%, up 2%), $80 (38%). Rising $85 IV signals downside fear.
Probability: 60% $80-$92, 20% <$80.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Positive (~200k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $88.
Charm: Positive (~100k shares/day). Pins $88.
GEX: +80,000. Caps upside.
DEX: +4M shares, bullish.
Karsan view: High GEX limits $92+; pullback to $85 likely.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Bearish at $88 OB, targets $85. Bullish > $92.
Daily: Bearish at $88 FVG, targets $85. Bullish > $90.
1-Hour: Bearish < $88, $85 target. MSS at $90.
10-Minute: OTE ($87-$88.50, $87.75) for sells, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 45%. ICT/SMT buys $86-$88 to $92. Options favor $90 calls. AI hype supports.
Neutral: 30%. $80-$92 range, balanced options.
Bearish: 25%. Below $85 likely with overbought signals. $85 put volume rises.
This Aussie Tech Gem Is Screaming BUY – If This Zone Holds!SDR (SiteMinder) is showing massive potential both technically and fundamentally:
- Trading 75.4% below fair value
- Forecasted to grow 65.36% YoY
- Earnings up 28.2% p.a. over the last 5 years
- Analysts expect 91%+ upside
On the chart, we’re sitting right on a high-probability monthly FVG + OB zone. If respected, we could see a strong rally back toward the $6.90–$7.78 buyside liquidity levels and beyond.
Key Levels to Watch:
📍 FVG support: ~$3.50
📈 Targets: $6.90 – $7.78
🧠 Confirmation needed via strong candle closes
🔥 Could be a high-reward play — but as always, DYOR!
Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA.
Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today.
Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth.
Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects.
Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9).
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~50 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~45 (neutral).
MFI: ~40 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness.
Daily:
RSI: ~48 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
MFI: ~45 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback.
Hourly:
RSI: ~45 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
MFI: ~50 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing.
Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets.
Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245.
Open Interest:
Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest.
Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0.
IV Skew:
Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope.
Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor.
Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250.
Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250.
GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range.
DEX: +7M shares, neutral.
Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence.
Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245.
1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245.
10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid.
Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range.
Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.
Quantum's T (AT&T) Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. Dividend yield (4-5%) and debt reduction ($123B) attract income seekers, but telecom competition and tariff fears limit enthusiasm. X posts praise stability, though growth concerns persist.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bullish. Options pin $27, with call buying eyeing $28. ICT/SMT supports $26-$26.50 buys to $27.50-$28 if support holds. Bearish risk below $25 low unless earnings falter.
Influential News:
--Federal Reserve: Rates unchanged, two 2025 cuts expected, easing debt costs. Liquidity boost mildly positive.
--Earnings: Q1 due April 23 (EPS $1.97-$2.07 vs. $2.13). Fiber (28.9M locations) and cash flow (>$16B) could lift if beat.
--Chatter: X mixed—stability vs. tariff risks. Analyst focus on earnings revisions.
--Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Talks to acquire Lumen’s fiber unit ($5.5B+), potentially boosting growth but risking debt concerns.
--Other: Tariffs caused volatility; RUS:T stable. Broadband expansion adds value.
Indicators:
--Weekly:
----RSI: ~45 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
----MFI: ~40 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMA signals suggest consolidation.
--Daily:
----RSI: ~48 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
----MFI: ~45 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs indicate pullback but recovery possible.
--Hourly:
----RSI: ~50 (neutral).
----Stochastic: ~60 (neutral).
----MFI: ~50 (neutral).
----SMAs: 10-day ~$27.10 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$27.30 (below, bearish).
----Interpretation: Neutral, mildly bullish momentum.
Price Context: $26.79 (April 11 close), 1M: -6%, 1Y: +59%. Range $25-$29, holding $26 support amid tariff concerns.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
-Volume:
----Calls: $27 (3,500, 60% ask = buying), $28 (2,500, 55% ask). Bullish bets on $27-$28.
---Puts: $25 (2,000, 70% bid = selling), $26 (1,500, 65% bid). $25 put selling supports $26 floor.
-Open Interest:
---Calls: $27 (10,000, +2,000 = buying), $28 (7,000, +1,500). Institutional bullishness.
---Puts: $25 (4,000, flat), $26 (6,000, +1,000). Hedging, not bearish. Put-call ~0.9.
-IV Skew:
---Calls: $27 (25%), $28 (27%, up 2%). $28 IV rise shows $28+ speculation.
---Puts: $25 (22%, down 1%), $26 (24%). Falling $25 IV reinforces $26 support.
-Probability: 60% $25-$28, 20% >$29.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
---Vanna: Neutral (~50k shares/1% IV). Stable IV limits flows; earnings IV spike could push
$27.50.
---Charm: Neutral (~20k shares/day). Pins $27.
---GEX: +20,000. Dealers sell $28, buy $26, holding range.
---DEX: +1M shares, neutral.
---Karsan view: GEX pins $26-$28; catalyst needed.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
--Weekly: Neutral, $25 support, $29 resistance. No $T/ NYSE:VZ divergence (~$43 NYSE:VZ ).
--Daily: Bullish at $26 FVG, targets $28. Bearish < $26.
--1-Hour: Bullish >$26.50, $27.50 target. MSS at $26.50.
--10-Minute: OTE ($26.69-$26.80, $26.73) for buys, NY AM (8:30-11:00 AM).
Trade Idea:
---Bullish: 60%. ICT/SMT buys $26-$26.50 to $27.50-$28 (OTE $26.73). Options favor $27-$28
calls. Earnings, M&A, Fed cuts support.
---Neutral: 30%. RSI (~45), SMAs (bearish), $25-$29 range, balanced options (put-call ~0.9).
---Bearish: 10%. Below $25 needs earnings miss. Low $25 put volume.
Quantum's KWEB Trading Guide 4/13/25Analysis:
Post-Close Options Activity (April 11):
Data: System reports 469.32K contracts traded on April 11, with puts at 10.99% (calls ~89%). High call volume at $31/$32 strikes suggests bullish bets.
Interpretation: Call-heavy flow indicates retail/institutional optimism, likely targeting a sweep above $31.35 (weekly high). Potential for a liquidity sweep trapping longs, aligning with ICT/SMT reversal.
RSI (14) Level and Trend:
Estimate: Daily RSI ~55 (neutral-bullish), based on April 11 close ($30.52, +2.97% from $29.62). Uptrend from April 8 low ($27.95) but below March 17 peak ($38.401) avoids overbought.
Interpretation: RSI supports bullish setups (above 50), with room for upside before resistance (~70). A sweep to $31.50 could push RSI higher, signaling OTE retracement.
Anonymized X Post Insights (April 11–13):
Summary: Posts highlight Chinese tech optimism (e.g., DeepSeek AI, consumer spending), tempered by tariff fears (Trump’s 125% threats). Some speculate on KWEB breaking $31, others note volatility risks.
Interpretation: Mixed sentiment leans bullish, with chatter about AI and stimulus driving buy-side interest. Tariff uncertainty suggests potential sell-side sweeps if news escalates.
Potential Reversals/Catalysts:
Liquidity Sweeps: Call-heavy options and X speculation point to a buy-side sweep above $31.35 (W-High), trapping retail longs before an OTE reversal to $30.00 (HVN).
Institutional Positioning: High call OI suggests dealers hedging bullish bets, but tariff risks could trigger smart money to fade retail.
Catalysts: Retail Sales (April 15) or tariff relief news could spike KWEB, while escalation could drive sell-side volatility.
Why: Sentiment aligns with ICT/SMT, where bullish retail chatter sets up sweeps, and smart money reverses at OTE. Neutral-bullish RSI and call volume support a setup.
Action: Log sentiment as neutral-bullish, expect sweep above $31 or drop to $29 on tariff news. Highlight for video: “KWEB’s call-heavy buzz could trap retail—watch for a smart money reversal.”
Tariff Impact
Assessment: Severe
Exposure:
KWEB’s holdings (e.g., PDD, JD.com, Tencent) rely on China’s internet economy, with significant supply chain and consumer exposure to U.S.-China trade. Tariffs (e.g., 125% proposed) raise costs for e-commerce and tech exports, hurting revenues.
Example: PDD (Temu) faces U.S. import duties, squeezing margins; JD.com’s logistics chain is tariff-sensitive.
Current Policy (April 13):
Context: Trump’s April 10 statement escalates tariffs to 125% on Chinese goods, with no relief confirmed by April 13. Web reports (Reuters, April 4) note market volatility from tariff fears, impacting KWEB’s April 8 low ($27.95).
Impact: Severe, as KWEB’s ETF structure amplifies holdings’ tariff pain (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent ADRs). Sentiment sours on escalation, driving sell-side sweeps.
Tariff Relief Potential:
Scenario: A 90-day pause or negotiation (rumored on X, inconclusive) could lift KWEB +3–5% ($31.50–$32.00), as seen in past relief rallies (e.g., February 2025, +1.6% on pause news).
Fundamentals: Relief boosts consumer spending on KWEB’s holdings, supporting bullish MSS. Without relief, bearish pressure persists.
AMT Tie-In: Tariff news creates imbalances (LVN breaks), with price seeking HVNs (e.g., $30.00) post-volatility.
Why: Severe tariff exposure makes KWEB sensitive to trade news, fueling sweeps (buy-side on relief, sell-side on escalation), per ICT/SMT.
Action: Rate tariff impact severe, monitor April 14 for negotiation updates. Video: “Tariffs could sink KWEB, but relief might spark a sweep to $32—stay sharp.”
News/Catalysts
Current (April 11, 2025)
Closing Price:
System Data: KWEB closed at $30.52 (currentPrice), +2.97% from prevDayClose ($29.62).
Verification: Matches April 11 high ($30.63), low ($29.41), open ($30.12).
Drivers:
Positive: Call-heavy options (89% calls) and AI buzz (DeepSeek, X posts) drove the rally. Web reports note Chinese tech resilience despite tariffs.
Negative: Tariff fears capped gains, with X posts citing Trump’s 125% threat as a drag.
Sector Trends: China ETFs rose (e.g., MCHI +2.1%, April 11), supporting KWEB’s move.
Why: Options flow and AI speculation fueled bullish momentum, but tariffs restrained breakout above $31.
Action: Highlight $30.52 close, +2.97%, driven by calls and AI. Video: “KWEB jumped 3% on AI hype, but tariffs loom large.”
Upcoming (Week of April 14–18)
Events:
April 15, Retail Sales (8:30 AM): Measures U.S. consumer spending, impacting KWEB’s e-commerce holdings (PDD, JD.com).
April 16–18, Tariff Talks: Potential U.S.-China negotiations, per X chatter (inconclusive).
Ongoing, China Stimulus: Rumored fiscal measures could lift Chinese tech, no date confirmed.
Predictions:
Bullish (+3%, ~$31.50): Strong Retail Sales (+0.5% MoM) or stimulus news boosts e-commerce, sweeping buy-side liquidity ($31.35).
Bearish (-3%, ~$29.50): Weak Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM) or tariff escalation triggers sell-side sweep ($29.41).
Neutral (±1%, $30.20–$30.80): Mixed data or no tariff news keeps KWEB near $30.00 (HVN).
Why: Catalysts drive displacement (sweeps to OHLC/LVNs), setting up OTE entries, per AMT/ICT.
Action: Set alerts for Retail Sales (April 15), monitor X for tariff updates. Video: “Retail Sales could push KWEB to $32 or drop it to $29—big week ahead.”
Technical Setup
Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Adjusted to April 11 Close, $30.52)
Weekly Chart
HVN (High Volume Node):
Level: $30.00 (POC, near W-Open $29.59, D-Close $30.52).
Role: Support, price consolidated March 24–April 11 ($29–$31).
Stance: Bullish (price above HVN, defending $30.00).
LVN (Low Volume Node):
Level: $31.50 (near W-High $31.35, April 4).
Role: Fast-move zone, price dropped post-$31.35 (April 4–8).
Stance: Neutral (price below LVN, potential sweep target).
EMA Trend:
Status: 8-week ($31.50) < 13-week ($32.00) < 48-week ($33.50), downtrend but flattening.
Stance: Neutral (price below EMAs, but $30.52 tests 8-week).
RSI (14):
Level: ~55 (neutral-bullish, up from 45 at $27.95, April 8).
Stance: Bullish (>50, room to 70).
MACD:
Status: Above signal, nearing zero (bullish crossover April 10).
Stance: Bullish (gaining momentum).
Bollinger Bands:
Status: Price at midline ($30.50), bands narrowing.
Stance: Neutral (breakout pending).
Donchian Channels:
Status: Above midline ($29.65, W-Low to W-High).
Stance: Bullish (breakout potential).
Williams %R:
Level: ~-40 (neutral, not overbought).
Stance: Bullish (>-50, rising).
ADR (Average Daily Range):
Status: Expanding (~3%, $0.90/day).
Stance: Bullish (volatility supports moves).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.20, April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers control).
ICT/SMC:
MSS: Bearish (lower highs from $38.401, March 17, but higher low $27.95, April 8, signals potential shift).
Trend: Neutral (consolidation $29–$31, testing W-High $31.35).
Summary: Neutral-bullish, price at HVN ($30.00) with LVN ($31.50) as sweep target. Indicators favor upside, but MSS needs confirmation.
1-Hour Chart
Support/Resistance:
Support: $29.41 (D-Low, April 11), aligns with W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($30.00).
Resistance: $30.63 (D-High, April 11), near LVN ($31.50), W-High ($31.35).
Stance: Bullish (price above support, testing resistance).
RSI (14):
Level: ~60 (bullish, rising from 50 at $29.41).
Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought).
MACD:
Status: Above signal, positive histogram.
Stance: Bullish (momentum building).
Bollinger Bands:
Status: Price near upper band ($30.60).
Stance: Bullish (breakout potential).
Donchian Channels:
Status: Above midline ($30.02).
Stance: Bullish (trend strength).
Williams %R:
Level: ~-30 (bullish, not overbought).
Stance: Bullish (>-50).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.30, intraday April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers dominate).
ICT/SMC:
Buy-Side Liquidity: Above $30.63 (D-High), $31.35 (W-High), LVN ($31.50). Retail stops cluster here.
Sell-Side Liquidity: Below $29.41 (D-Low), $27.95 (W-Low/M-Low).
OB: Bullish OB at $29.80–$30.00 (April 10 consolidation, demand zone, near HVN $30.00).
FVG: Bullish FVG at $30.00–$30.20 (April 11 gap, unfilled, aligns with D-Open $30.12).
OTE: Fib 61.8%–78.6% from $29.41 (low) to $30.63 (high) = $30.05–$30.15 (overlaps OB/FVG/HVN).
Displacement: Potential impulsive move to $31.50 (LVN) or $29.00 (below D-Low) on Retail Sales or tariff news.
Summary: Bullish bias, with OTE ($30.05–$30.15) as entry zone post-sweep, supported by OB/FVG/HVN.
10-Minute Chart
Closing Move (April 11):
Status: Rallied to $30.52, closed near high ($30.63), strong volume.
Stance: Bullish (buyers pushed close).
EMA Direction:
Status: 8-EMA ($30.45) > 13-EMA ($30.40) > 48-EMA ($30.30), uptrend.
Stance: Bullish (EMAs rising).
RSI (14):
Level: ~65 (bullish, cooling from 70).
Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought).
MACD:
Status: Above zero, bullish crossover.
Stance: Bullish (momentum intact).
VWAP:
Status: Above VWAP (~$30.40, late April 11).
Stance: Bullish (buyers control).
ICT/SMC:
Liquidity Sweep: Wick to $30.63 (8:50 AM, April 11) tested buy-side, no clear rejection yet.
Retracement: Potential retrace to $30.05–$30.15 (OTE) if sweep completes (e.g., April 14, 8:00 AM).
Entry Signal: Pin bar or engulfing at OTE (e.g., $30.10, 10-minute candle).
Summary: Bullish, awaiting sweep above $30.63 or $31.35, retrace to OTE for entry.
Options Data
Analysis:
GEX (Gamma Exposure):
Status: Positive GEX at $31 strike (high call OI), neutral at $30.
Impact: Dealers buy stock to hedge calls, supporting $31 pin or slight lift to $31.50.
Explanation: Positive GEX stabilizes price near high OI strikes, aligning with LVN ($31.50) sweep.
Stance: Neutral-bullish (pinning likely, breakout possible).
DEX (Delta Exposure):
Status: High call delta (+0.3, 89% call volume).
Impact: Bullish pressure, as dealers hedge calls by buying KWEB.
Explanation: Call-heavy delta fuels upside momentum, supporting buy-side sweep.
Stance: Bullish.
IV (Implied Volatility):
Status: Moderate (~25%, vs. 20–35% norm for KWEB).
Impact: Steady swings ($0.50–$1.00/day), good for ATM/OTM calls.
Explanation: Moderate IV balances premium cost and volatility, ideal for OTE entries.
Stance: Bullish (volatility supports options).
OI (Open Interest):
Status: Call-heavy (65% calls at $31, 20% at $32, 15% puts at $30).
Impact: Momentum toward $31–$32, potential pin at $31 (high OI).
Explanation: High call OI marks targets (W-High $31.35, LVN $31.50), puts at $30 guard HVN.
Stance: Bullish (calls drive upside).
Cem Karsan’s Application and Weekly Trading Breakdown:
Gamma: High at $31 (pinning risk), low at $32 (breakout potential).
Vanna: Rising IV (25% to 30% on Retail Sales) lifts calls, dealers buy KWEB, pushing to $31.50.
Charm: Near OPEX (April 18), $31 calls hold delta if ITM, spiking volatility April 17–18.
Volatility Skew: Call skew (higher IV for $32 vs. $30) favors upside breakouts.
Weekly OI (Exp. April 18): 65% calls at $31, 20% at $32. Pinning likely at $31 unless Retail Sales sparks breakout to $32.
Options Strategy:
Trade: Buy $31 calls at OTE ($30.10, April 14, 8:50 AM), premium ~$0.50.
Exit: $31.50 (W-High/LVN, premium ~$0.90), profit $0.40.
Stop: Below OB ($29.80, premium ~$0.20), risk $0.30.
R:R: 1.33:1 (adjust to 2:1 with partial exit).
ICT/SMC Tie-In: Enter post-sweep ($31.35), retrace to OTE ($30.10), target $31.50.
Vanna:
Status: IV rise (25% to 30%) amplifies calls, dealers buy KWEB.
Impact: Bullish lift to $31–$31.50, aligns with LVN sweep.
Explanation: Vanna boosts delta near high OI, supporting OTE reversal.
Charm:
Status: OPEX (April 18) nears, $31 calls gain delta if KWEB hits $31.
Impact: Volatility spikes April 17–18, favors quick OTE trades.
Explanation: Charm accelerates delta, amplifying sweep-to-OTE moves.
Timeframe Analysis:
Weekly (Exp. April 18):
OI: 65% calls ($31), 20% ($32), 15% puts ($30).
IV: Moderate (25%), rising on catalysts.
Stance: Bullish (calls dominate, breakout risk).
Monthly (Exp. May 2):
OI: Balanced (50% calls $32, 50% puts $29).
IV: Stable (~24%).
Stance: Neutral (consolidation likely).
3-Month (Exp. July 7):
OI: Call skew ($33–$35, 60% calls).
IV: Low (~22%).
Stance: Bullish (long-term upside).
Directional Bias:
Synthesis: Positive GEX ($31 pin), high call DEX (+0.3), moderate IV (25%), call-heavy OI (65% at $31), vanna (IV lift), charm (OPEX volatility), and ICT/SMC (buy-side sweep to $31.35, OTE at $30.10) suggest a bullish trend for April 14, with potential retracement post-sweep.
Why: Options data aligns with ICT/SMT (call OI = buy-side liquidity, OTE = dealer hedging zone), per AMT (LVN sweep, HVN reversal).
Action: Focus on $31 calls, highlight pinning vs. breakout. Video: “KWEB’s $31 call wall could pin or pop—perfect for an OTE play.”
Sympathy Plays
Correlated Assets:
MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF): Tracks broader Chinese equities, rises ~2–3% if KWEB rallies (e.g., $31.50), due to shared holdings (Alibaba, Tencent).
BABA (Alibaba ADR): KWEB’s top holding, moves +3–4% on KWEB’s sweep to $31.35, driven by e-commerce/AI overlap.
Opposite Mover:
GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): Risk-off asset, fades ~1–2% if KWEB rallies (risk-on), as investors shift from safe havens to tech.
Why: Sympathy plays confirm sector momentum (Chinese tech), while GLD hedges tariff fears, per ICT/SMT sentiment.
Action: Monitor MCHI/BABA for confirmation, GLD for divergence. Video: “If KWEB pops, MCHI and BABA follow—watch gold for the flip side.”
Sector Positioning with RRG
Sector: Technology – Emerging Markets (China Internet).
RRG Position: Improving (vs. MCHI ETF).
Rationale: KWEB’s April 11 rally (+2.97%) outpaces MCHI (+2.1%), with RSI (~55) and call OI signaling strength. Tariff fears weaken absolute gains, but relative momentum grows.
Tie-In: Improving quadrant supports bullish MSS, OTE entries at HVN ($30.00).
Why: RRG aligns with sentiment (call-heavy) and technicals (above HVN), per AMT value area.
Action: Highlight Improving RRG for video: “KWEB’s gaining steam in China tech—prime for a sweep setup.”
Targets
Bullish:
Target: +3.5% to $31.60.
Levels: W-High ($31.35), LVN ($31.50), next resistance ($32.00).
Rationale: Buy-side sweep to $31.35 (W-High), breakout to LVN on Retail Sales or tariff relief, per ICT/SMC.
Bearish:
Target: -3.2% to $29.55.
Levels: D-Low ($29.41), below W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($29.50).
Rationale: Sell-side sweep below $29.41 on weak Retail Sales or tariff escalation, retracing to HVN, per AMT.
Why: Targets tie to OHLC (W-High, D-Low), HVNs/LVNs, and catalysts, ensuring ICT/SMC alignment (liquidity to OTE).
(AAL) American Airlines "Crashing"?! Long Put Worthy?American Airline (AAL) in recent years has had major news coverage due to various collisions and other events. The technicals appear to show some strong bearish momentum forming on the 1 Week chart. Will the airline company coming crashing down? Or is this currently a discounted buying opportunity? What are your thoughts?
The last 4 previous Stockmarket Fear spikes were great buys...for Bitcoin, allowing investors to enhance their long-term holdings.
Purchasing risk assets when the #VIX exceeds 50 and over 20% of stocks fall below their 200-day moving average has consistently yielded positive returns, with a success rate of one hundred percent when evaluated one week, one month, and three months later.
This particular scenario has only happened 11 times in the history of the S&P 500, and the reading from Monday, April 7th, marked one of those rare instances.
#BTFD
IDBI Bank Looking to make a comeback on Weekly Charts. IDBI Bank Ltd. engages in the provision of commercial banking services to retail and corporate customers. It operates through the following segments: Corporate and Wholesale Banking; Retail Banking; Treasury; and Other Banking and Group Operations. The Corporate and Wholesale Banking segment includes corporate relationship covering deposit and credit activities other than retail, as well as corporate advisory and syndication, project appraisal, and investment portfolio.
IDBI Bank Ltd. Closing price is 79.49. The positive aspects of the company are Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 11.9), Companies with Zero Promoter Pledge, Company able to generate Net Cash - Improving Net Cash Flow, Companies with Low Debt, Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding and MFs increased their shareholding last quarter The Negative aspects of the company is Companies with high market cap, lower public shareholding.
Entry can be taken after closing above 80 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 83.7, 88.1 and 92.1. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 95.6 and 99.3. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 65.4.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
BPCL looking strong on Weekly Charts. Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. is a holding company, which engages in the business of refining of crude oil and marketing of petroleum products. It operates through the Downstream Petroleum and Exploration & Production (E&P) segment. The Downstream Petroleum segment includes the refining and marketing of petroleum products. The E&P segment focuses on hydrocarbons.
Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. Closing price is 293.20. The positive aspects of the company are Very Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 9.3), Companies with reducing Debt, Companies with Zero Promoter Pledge, Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin and MFs increased their shareholding last quarter. The Negative aspects of the company are Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash and Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects.
Entry can be taken after closing above 296 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 306, 319 and 330. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 345, 355 and 366. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 261 or 234 depending upon your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of April 11, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading session, the Index has recorded lower opening prices, thereby completing our key Outer Index Dip levels at 5026 and 4893, as previously highlighted in last week's Daily Chart analysis. This development establishes a foundation for a continuous upward trend, targeting the Outer Index Rally at 5550, with an interim resistance identified at 5455. Should this upward momentum persist, further extension may reach the subsequent resistance levels of 5672 and 5778, respectively. However, it is essential to note that a downward momentum may occur at the very significant completion target level of the Outer Index Rally at 5550, with the primary objective being a Mean Sup 5140 and retest of the completed Outer Index Dip at 4890.
S&P 500 Pullback Nearing End? Hammer + Elliott Wave Say Rebound!The S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is one of the most important indexes in the financial market these days , with the cryptocurrency market and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) having a strong correlation with this index .
After Donald Trump suspended tariffs on 90 countries (except China) , the S&P 500 Index started to rise and seems to have managed to break through the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,094) and is pulling back to this zone .
One of the signs of a reversa l of the S&P 500 Index can be the formation of the Hammer Candlestick Pattern , which announces the end of the pullback .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing a corrective wave that could be in the form of a main wave 4 ( it is correcting both in time and price ).
I expect the S&P 500 Index to resume its upward trend in the coming hours, if nothing special is released , and to reach the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) and Yearly Pivot Point . If this happens, today's Bitcoin analysis could also be correct .
Note: In the worst case, if the S&P 500 Index touches $5,050, we should expect a further decline in the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin.
Do you think the S&P 500 Index will return to an upward trend, or is this increase temporary?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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ORACLE: On a 3 year bottom. Buy opportunity for 240 long termOracle is bearish on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 35.862, MACD = -4.360, ADX = 42.565) as this week it reached almost the same levels of correction as the 2022 Bear Market (-42.72%). This is also nearly a HL bottom for the 3 year Channel Up and as the 1W MA200 is right below, a great long term buy opportunity. The bullish wave after the 2022 bottom almost reached the 1.382 Fibonacci, so we have a technical level to target this time also (TP = 240).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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