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EURUSD - Major resistance ahead with the fair value gaps!The EUR/USD pair remains firmly within a prevailing downtrend, characterized by a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows. This bearish momentum has resulted in the formation of several significant Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) on the 4-hour chart, which now act as potential resistance zones on any pullbacks. These FVGs not only coincide with important technical structures, but also align with key Fibonacci retracement levels, adding confluence to their strength. In the analysis below, we’ll walk through these zones and discuss the most probable scenarios based on the current price action. First resistance zone The first major resistance lies within the 4-hour FVG in the 1.1600 to 1.1650 region. This zone coincides with the golden pocket, which is formed between the 0.618 and 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels. This overlap strengthens the likelihood of price reacting bearishly here, should the market manage to retrace upwards into this area. Given the strong downward momentum, this level may be enough to trigger a continuation to the downside, making it a critical area to monitor for rejection signals. Second resistance zone The second key resistance is found in the upper 4-hour FVG, ranging from 1.1690 to 1.1750. This zone aligns closely with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and marks a former support zone that has now been broken, indicating a potential structure break. Price returning to this level would be retesting the underside of broken market structure, which often acts as a powerful resistance area. Given this, a deeper pullback into this region may serve as a trap for late buyers and potentially offer a high-probability short setup. Bullish bounce area On the bullish side, the most relevant support is currently found within the 1-hour FVG that was formed last Friday, during the release of the U.S. unemployment rate data. This zone is positioned below current price levels and is likely to act as a strong short-term demand area. It is reasonable to anticipate a bullish reaction from this zone if the market retraces downward, making it a favorable area to seek long opportunities for a potential move into the higher resistance levels described above. Final thoughts While the broader trend remains bearish, short-term bullish bounces are likely within defined fair value gaps. Traders should keep a close eye on the 1-hour FVG for possible long entries, while watching the 4-hour FVGs, particularly those aligning with key Fibonacci levels, for signs of bearish continuation. If resistance holds firm, the EUR/USD could resume its downtrend, but any structural breaks or sustained closes above these levels would challenge that view. As always, price action around these zones should guide the final decision-making. ------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
by Youriverse
61
Meta Platforms (META) Shares DeclineMeta Platforms (META) Shares Decline Shares of the US tech giant Meta Platforms (META) hit a record high last week, climbing above $780 following the release of a strong earnings report: → Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $7.14, significantly exceeding the forecast of $5.88. → The company also outperformed expectations on key metrics related to advertising growth. → Additionally, the media has highlighted the growing importance of AI technology to Meta’s business. However, shortly after reaching an all-time high, META shares began to show bearish momentum. Technical Analysis of the META Chart On the four-hour chart, the following signals are visible: → A bearish engulfing pattern formed on Thursday; → A bearish gap appeared at Friday’s market open, followed by a continuation of the downward move. This represents a notable pullback from the historical peak — potentially indicating that the initial bullish reaction to the earnings report has faded. The share price decline suggests a correction from overbought territory, as confirmed by the RSI indicator. The $740 level appears to be a key support zone — previously acting as major resistance before the breakout. Bulls could also find support from the median line and the lower boundary of the ascending channel that has been developing since mid-May. Given this context, a scenario in which bulls attempt to resume the uptrend within the ascending channel cannot be ruled out, especially considering the company’s strong fundamentals and the presence of multiple technical support levels. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:META
by FXOpen
7
Cyclical Stocks vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: How Can You Trade Them?Cyclical Stocks vs Non-Cyclical Stocks: How Can You Trade Them? Not every stock is created equal. One of the biggest distinctions is cyclical vs non-cyclical—those that grow or decline alongside economic conditions and those that are less sensitive. In this article, we explore the key differences between the two, how to analyse both, and how to trade them. What Are Cyclical Stocks? Cyclical stocks are those that rise and fall in line with the broader economy. They’re more sensitive to consumer spending and include those in the travel, automotive, construction, and luxury goods sectors. Simply put, when consumers have more disposable income, they’re likely to buy new cars, travel abroad, or invest in home improvements. Demand boosts corporate earnings and pushes share prices higher. However, when consumers have less money or face economic uncertainty, they reduce and delay spending on these discretionary purchases, dampening company earnings and stock valuations. Nike and Starbucks are good examples here—both are cyclical companies that see higher demand when consumers are in a stronger financial position and feel comfortable purchasing brand-name clothes or buying coffee on the go. Cyclical stocks tend to be more volatile than non-cyclical ones. Their sensitivity to cyclical business conditions offers potential opportunities for traders to capitalise on a growth phase, but timing matters—getting caught in a temporary or prolonged downturn can lead to sharp drawdowns. Cyclical Sectors - Automotive - Airlines & Travel - Luxury Goods & Apparel - Construction & Materials - Banking & Financial Services - Technology & Semiconductors - Restaurants & Entertainment - Retail (Discretionary Spending) Is Tesla a Cyclical Stock? Yes, Tesla is a cyclical stock. Demand for electric vehicles moves in line with economic conditions, consumer spending, and interest rates. Is Amazon a Cyclical Stock? Amazon is partly cyclical. Its retail business depends on consumer spending but its cloud computing division (AWS) sees constant demand and provides diversification. What Are Non-Cyclical Stocks? Non-cyclical stocks belong to companies that sell essential goods and services. Contrasting with cyclical stocks and their sensitivity to consumer spending, non-cyclical companies sell things people buy regardless of economic conditions. They’re often referred to as defensive stocks because they tend to hold up when the economy weakens. Non-cyclical sectors include healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples. Supermarkets, pharmaceutical companies, and electricity providers see relatively steady demand because people still need food, medicine, and power whether the economy is growing or contracting. For example, consumer non-cyclical stocks, like Procter & Gamble, which owns brands like Oral-B, Charmin, and Gillette, continue to generate revenue year-round because consumers still buy everyday household items. The same goes for Johnson & Johnson, which sells medical products that hospitals and pharmacies need. Compared to cyclical stocks, non-cyclical stocks are usually less volatile because their earnings are more consistent. While their potential returns are relatively limited vs their more growth-oriented cyclical counterparts, non-cyclical stocks are believed to not dive as sharply during a downturn. Non-Cyclical Sectors - Consumer Staples (Everyday Goods) - Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals - Utilities (Electricity, Water, Gas) - Telecommunications - Grocery & Essential Retail - Defence & Aerospace How Traders Analyse Cyclical Stocks In a market where going long or short volatile cyclical stocks is an option (such as with CFDs), many prefer to trade them over non-cyclical stocks. More broadly, traders analyse a few key indicators to determine whether cyclical stocks are in a growth phase. Macroeconomic Indicators When GDP expands, businesses and consumers spend more, and free-flowing spending boosts demand in cyclical sectors. Similarly, interest rates determine spending on more big-ticket purchases, like cars, homes, and luxury goods. Lower interest rates encourage borrowing and vice versa. Employment rates also play a key role. More layoffs and a higher unemployment rate mean consumers dial back purchases of discretionary goods and services. Employment conditions, along with economic and policy uncertainty, drive consumer confidence. When optimism is high, cyclical stocks often rally. Earnings Trends & Sector Data Unlike non-cyclical companies, cyclical firms see earnings fluctuate based on economic cycles. Traders pay attention to quarterly reports and especially forward guidance. If a company expects strong sales growth due to rising demand, this can drive its stock price higher and possibly signal an upswing in the sector. Industry-specific data, like auto sales figures or airline bookings, is also a useful gauge for assessing the future performance of a company. Market Sentiment & Seasonal Trends Cyclical stocks are prone to seasonal patterns—retailers surge in the holiday season, while travel stocks perform well in summer. Market sentiment is another important factor; for instance, if economic uncertainty is growing but investors on the whole believe it to be a temporary blip, then cyclical stocks may still rise. Analysing Non-Cyclical Stocks While traders often favour cyclical stocks for their higher potential returns, many still turn to non-cyclical companies as a possible form of short-term defence against downturns, to balance a long-term portfolio, or when unique occasions arise (earnings reports, company-specific news, etc.). Earnings Stability & Cash Flow Since non-cyclical companies sell essential goods and services, their earnings tend to be more consistent. Traders look at revenue trends, gross margins, and free cash flow to assess a firm’s ability to generate relatively steady income. Consistent earnings—even during downturns—can be a marker of a strong non-cyclical stock. Dividend History & Payout Ratios Many non-cyclical stocks pay dividends. That makes them attractive for those looking for income-generating assets. A company with a long track record of consistent or growing dividend payments is often a sign of financial strength. The payout ratio (dividends paid as a percentage of earnings) is another metric traders examine—too high, and it could indicate unsustainable distributions. Market Conditions & Defensive Rotation If economic uncertainty rises, investors will generally shift into defensive sectors like healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples. Many will monitor fund flows—where institutional money managing exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, and large portfolios is headed—to understand if risk aversion is growing. Likewise, outperformance in certain sectors can be a signal. If sector indices like the S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index or the S&P 500 Healthcare Index outperform the overall S&P 500, it may indicate capital moving into non-cyclical stocks. Trading Cyclical and Non-Cyclical Stocks Now, let’s take a closer look at how traders engage with these stocks. Short-Term Trading Short-term traders generally focus on stocks or sectors expected to move over hours or days. One strategy might be to examine the broader conditions and trade ahead of earnings reports. If summer is approaching and the economy is doing well, Delta Air Lines could rise in the weeks before an earnings release as traders anticipate strong quarterly performance and positive forward guidance. Another strategy is trading macro themes. If inflation rises, traders might focus on companies with strong pricing power, like consumer staples firms that can pass costs onto consumers. If economic data points to a slowdown, they might focus on healthcare stocks. Medium-Term Trading Medium-term traders take a broader view and typically adjust their portfolio weightings based on economic conditions. During expansions, they may overweight cyclicals like construction and travel stocks, while shifting into non-cyclicals as recession risks grow. That could mean just rebalancing a collection of ETFs, over/under-weighting a set of stocks, or a mix of both. Here, the focus is usually on broader economic trends while also staying alert for possible strengthening or weakening consumer demand. Long-Term Trading Long-term traders often hold a mix of cyclical and non-cyclical stocks to maintain a balanced portfolio across economic cycles. While they may still adjust weightings over time, they tend to be more concerned with long-term sector trends and income generation. With a longer time horizon, these traders may be more willing to allocate more capital to cyclical stocks during a downturn, especially to otherwise strong companies or sectors, to take advantage of potential rebounds months down the line. The Bottom Line Understanding the difference between cyclical and non-cyclical stocks is fundamental to trading them. Careful analysis—macroeconomic, sectoral, and company-specific—can help traders identify potential opportunities across all time horizons. FAQ What Are Examples of Cyclical Stocks? Cyclical stocks include Tesla (TSLA), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Nike (NKE), Caterpillar (CAT), Marriott International (MAR), and Ford (F). Which Industries Are Most Cyclical? Highly cyclical industries include automotive, airlines, hospitality, construction, luxury goods, and consumer discretionary retail. Is Coca-Cola a Cyclical Stock? No, Coca-Cola is considered a non-cyclical stock. Demand for its wide range of products remains stable regardless of economic conditions. Is Starbucks a Cyclical Stock? Yes, Starbucks is a cyclical stock. Coffee purchases aren’t essential, so demand fluctuates based on disposable income and consumer confidence. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by FXOpen
1
S&P500’s Bullish Island Turns Risky: Elliott Wave Says “Top”The S&P500 Index( SP:SPX ) started to rise and even created a new All-Time High(ATH=$6,428) with the help of the Bullish Long Island Pattern , as I published in my previous idea on May 14, 2025 . The S&P500 Index is currently moving near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , upper line of the ascending channel , the Important Resistance line , and the Yearly Resistance(1) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , the S&P500 Index appears to be completing microwave 5 of microwave 5 of the main wave 5 . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . I expect the S&P500 Index to correct at least -4% and fall to the lower line of the ascending channel . First Target: $6,233 Second Target: $6,033 Note: Stop Loss(SL) $6,513 Do you think S&P500 Index can create a new ATH above $6,500 !? Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), Daily time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
16
NVTS Tight Coil Before Earnings## ⚡️ \ NASDAQ:NVTS WEEKLY TRADE IDEA (AUG 5–9) **🔥 STRONG BULLISH FLOW | CALL/PUT: 5.24 | EARNINGS INCOMING** --- ### 🔍 SENTIMENT SNAPSHOT * 📈 **Daily RSI**: 59.2 — Bullish * 📅 **Weekly RSI**: 71.4 — Strong momentum * 🔻 **Volume**: 0.7x — Weak institutional follow-through * 🔔 **Earnings Risk**: HIGH — Earnings expected Aug 5 * 🧠 **Model Consensus**: Bullish, but cautious on binary event --- ### 💡 TRADE SETUP | 🔹 | Trade Type | Long Call | | -- | -------------- | --------------- | | 🎯 | **Strike** | **\$8.50** | | 📅 | **Expiry** | **Aug 8 (Fri)** | | 💵 | **Entry** | **\$0.55** | | 📈 | **Target** | **\$1.50** | | 🛑 | **Stop** | **\$0.30** | | 📏 | **Size** | 1 contract | | ⚖️ | **Confidence** | 70% | --- ### ⚠️ TRADE NOTES * 🚨 Earnings volatility could create gaps — plan around Aug 5 * 📉 Low volume = reduced follow-through risk * ⏰ Very short expiry = high gamma exposure --- ### 🧩 STRATEGY CONTEXT > “Momentum is real, but earnings are the wildcard. Size light. Stay nimble.” 📍 Enter: At market open Monday 🔍 Watch: Post-earnings price action + volume spike 📊 Manage: Tight stop, scale out if it rips pre-earnings --- 💬 Playing NVTS this week? 🔥 Comment “NVTS” if you’re watching this setup 🔁 Repost if you’re riding earnings momentum
NASDAQ:NVTSLong
by quantsignals
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 5, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🔹 PBOC Moves Prompt FX Backlash On August 5, 2019, China’s central bank allowed the yuan to depreciate over 2% to its lowest level since 2008. That same day, the U.S. Treasury officially designated China as a currency manipulator, citing the PBOC’s moves as retaliation for recent U.S. tariff actions. In response, China ordered state-owned enterprises to suspend purchases of U.S. agricultural goods—a significant blow to U.S. exporters. 🔹 EU Suspends Counter-Tariffs for Six Months Following a negotiated framework with the U.S., the European Union suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods for six months. The move aims to de-escalate trade tensions while joint discussions continue. 🔹 Citi Raises Gold Price Outlook to $3,500/oz Citi revised its short-term trading range for gold to $3,300–$3,600 per ounce, based on weakening U.S. labor data, rising inflation pressure from tariffs, and growing demand for safe-haven assets. Spot gold traded around $3,356 oz on Monday. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, August 5: 8:30 AM ET – U.S. Trade Balance (June) Expected to improve modestly to –$67.6 billion (from –$71.5B), reflecting tariff-influenced shifts in import/export volumes. 9:45 AM ET – S&P Global U.S. Final Services PMI & ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July) Key indicators of service-sector strength. Readings above 50 suggest expansion; below 50, contraction. Flash estimates forecast moderated growth in activity. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational use only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #trade #data #inflation #currency
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
S&P 500 ETF & Index– Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction📉📊 S&P 500 ETF & Index at Resistance – Technicals Hint at a Possible Correction 🔍⚠️ Everything here is pure technicals— but sometimes, the market whispers loud and clear if you know how to listen. 🧠📐 The VOO ETF, which tracks the S&P 500 , has now reached the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel, once again brushing against resistance near 590.85. This zone has consistently led to major pullbacks in the past. On the right panel, the US500 Index mirrors this move—pushing toward all-time highs, right as broader sentiment turns euphoric. Technically, both charts are overextended and pressing into key zones. 👀 Potential Path: 🔻 Rejection from current zone ➝ Down toward 526.17, then 465.72 (green support channel) 🔁 Possible bounce after correction — trend still intact long term And while we’re keeping it technical, it’s worth noting that the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) i s currently screaming “overvaluation.” This doesn't predict timing—but it adds macro context to an already overheated chart setup. The lesson? Price respects structure. Whether or not the fundamentals are in agreement, the charts are warning that now may not be the time to chase. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Stay sharp, stay technical. 🎯 One Love, The FX PROFESSOR 💙 ps. the beauty of these levels? Tight Stop loss- excellent R/R Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
TRADENATION:US500Short
by FX_Professor
OKLO — when nuclear momentum breaks resistanceSince late 2024, OKLO had been consolidating inside a clear rectangle between $17 and $59. The breakout from this long-term range triggered a new bullish impulse. The price has since returned to retest the breakout zone, now aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $51.94. The retest has completed, and the price is bouncing upward, confirming buyer interest. Technically, the trend remains firmly bullish. The price closed above the prior range, EMAs are aligned below, and the volume spike during breakout supports genuine demand. The volume profile shows a clean path toward $100, indicating limited resistance ahead. The structure suggests a controlled rally rather than an exhausted move. Fundamentally, OKLO is a next-generation SMR (Small Modular Reactor) company focused on delivering compact, efficient nuclear power solutions. Following its public debut via SPAC and recent capital injection, OKLO is transitioning from development to implementation. Institutional interest is holding strong, and the broader move toward decarbonization and energy independence places the company in a strategic position. Target levels: — First target: $100 — psychological and technical resistance — Second target: $143 — projected from prior range breakout OKLO isn’t just another clean energy ticker — it’s a quiet disruptor with nuclear potential. The chart broke out. The volume confirmed. Now it’s time to see if the market follows through.
NYSE:OKLOLong
by TotoshkaTrades
NAS100 - Stock Market Heading Down?!The index is trading in its medium-term ascending channel on the four-hour timeframe between the EMA200 and EMA50. However, if the index corrects upward towards the specified supply zone, it is possible to sell Nasdaq with better risk-reward. In recent days and weeks, the Nasdaq Composite Index once again approached its historic highs, even setting a new all-time record. However, following the latest jobs data and the Federal Reserve meeting, the index experienced a price correction. Unlike many previous bullish phases that were driven largely by short-term momentum or emotional reactions, the current upward trend in the Nasdaq reflects structural maturity and market stabilization. Institutional capital inflows and strong corporate earnings have together painted a picture of a more stable and predictable future for this index. According to recent financial data, U.S. equity funds received over $6.3 billion in net inflows during the final week of July—marking the first positive inflow after three consecutive weeks of outflows. The key engine behind this growth continues to be the robust performance of tech companies. Firms such as Meta, Microsoft, and AI-oriented companies like Nvidia and Broadcom posted exceptionally strong earnings reports. These results not only exceeded analysts’ expectations but also fueled significant gains in their stock prices, contributing to the Nasdaq’s momentum. Despite some sector-specific concerns—for instance, regarding Qualcomm in the semiconductor space—the broader tech sector has sustained its upward trajectory and even extended that momentum to adjacent industries, especially those involved in cloud and AI supply chains. Meanwhile, advisors to Donald Trump revealed that he plans sweeping reforms at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This announcement followed the July jobs report, which showed only 73,000 new jobs and sharp downward revisions to prior months’ figures. On Truth Social, Trump accused the current BLS Commissioner, Erica McEnturfer, of politically manipulating employment data and ordered her immediate removal. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer subsequently announced that Deputy Commissioner William Witrofsky would serve as acting head. Trump emphasized that economic data must be accurate, impartial, and trustworthy—and not politically skewed. Following this leadership change, a broader debate has emerged around how employment statistics are collected and reported. While statistical revisions have long been a routine, non-political process since 1979, there are now growing questions about whether a better system for gathering and publishing this critical data could be developed. As a nonpartisan branch of the Department of Labor, the BLS publishes its monthly employment report at 8:30 AM Eastern on the first Friday of each month. The data is gathered from surveys of around 629,000 business establishments. Analysts have cited several reasons for the frequent need for revisions: • Late responses from firms • Delays from large corporations that distort preliminary figures • Recalculations due to seasonal adjustments (e.g., holidays or weather) • Demographic shifts impacted by immigration or deportation • Annual revisions based on finalized tax records With a relatively light economic calendar in the U.S. this week, traders have turned their focus to the latest developments in trade negotiations—particularly talks with countries that have yet to finalize trade agreements with Washington. Although the U.S. has reached deals with key partners including the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea, no formal agreement has yet been made with China to extend the current trade truce, which is set to expire on August 12. The new U.S. tariff plan proposes a baseline 10% rate for most countries, but some—like India and Switzerland—face much higher rates of 25% and 39%, respectively. However, since implementation of the tariffs has been postponed until August 7, there’s still time for further negotiations and possible rate reductions. Sources close to the White House suggest the administration is eager to continue talks. What’s now becoming clear is the sheer magnitude of the proposed tariff shifts—far beyond pre-trade-war averages. These changes could have more severe consequences than previously estimated, potentially pushing up U.S. inflation while simultaneously threatening global growth. As such, markets may be entering a fresh wave of volatility. Compounding these concerns is the U.S. Treasury’s upcoming bond issuance schedule, which could add to market instability. Also on the radar is the ISM Services PMI for July, due Tuesday. Its results will be closely watched for signs on the U.S. dollar’s direction and the Fed’s potential actions at its September meeting. Notably, as of July 18, 2025, the widely-followed Buffett Indicator—measuring the ratio of market capitalization to GDP—was 2.3 standard deviations above its historical average. This level surpasses even the dot-com bubble era of the early 2000s. The indicator is now firmly in the “overvalued” zone, which often precedes market corrections or even crashes. For context, during the 2008 financial crisis, it was roughly 1.5 standard deviations below the historical norm.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 6, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 6, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍 🪙 Citi Lifts Gold Price Forecast Amid Global Uncertainty Citi raised its short-term gold outlook to $3,500/oz, citing surging safe-haven demand driven by trade instability, softening labor metrics, and heightened geopolitical risk. Risk premiums and volatility remain elevated. 📉 Equities Tumble as Risk Aversion Returns U.S. stocks slipped on renewed caution—investors rotated into bonds and precious metals following weaker job indicators and escalating trade friction. The dollar and gold strengthened, while equity futures pulled back. 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Wednesday, August 6: No major U.S. economic data releases scheduled for today. Markets are closely monitoring corporate earnings reports and commentary from Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly later in the day. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational and informational purposes only—it is not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #trade #currency #gold #earnings
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Ashok Leyland looking attractive on charts. Ashok Leyland Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of commercial, defense vehicles, and power solutions. Ashok Leyland’s Closing price is 121.97. Dividend Yield @CMP = 2.60%. The positive aspects of the company are Companies with decreasing Promoter pledge, Annual Net Profits improving for last 2 years, MFs increased their shareholding last quarter and FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding. The Negative aspects of the company are High Valuation (P.E. = 23.2), Companies with High Promoter Pledge, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash, Companies with High Debt and Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects. Entry can be taken after closing above 123.5 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 126 and 131. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 142 and 150. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 114 and 100 depending upon your risk taking ability. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:ASHOKLEYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Manappuram can bounce again from Mother line? Manappuram Finance Ltd. is a non-banking financial company, which engages in the provision of financial services, including gold loans, foreign exchange services, and remittances. The firm offers cash loan against gold pledge and also offers customers money transfers and foreign exchange services. It operates through Gold Loan and Others and Microfinance segments. Manappuram Finance Ltd. Closing price is 258.9. Dividend Yield @CMP = 1.41%. The positive aspects of the company are Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Companies with Zero Promoter Pledge, Dividend yield greater than sector dividend yield, Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity and FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding. The Negative aspects of the company are Increase in Provisions in Recent Results, Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income, Declining profits every quarter for the past 2 quarters and Insiders sold stocks. Entry can be taken after closing above 262 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 274 and 283. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 297 and 309. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 246 or 231 depending upon your risk taking ability. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:MANAPPURAMLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
The Ghost of 1986-1987 Stock Market Overlay onto $IWMThe 1986-1987 stock market advance was 48% as measured by the S&P500 Index SP:SPX from the low in late 1986 which peaked in August 1987 and crashed into October 19th's spectacular 20% decline in one day. The advance in the Russell 2000 Index from the low in 2023 to the high in 2024 was 51%, topping the 48% gain in the SP:SPX and the meltdown wasn't as spectacular, but it was similar. There were similar patterns in fears of trade wars, US dollar declines, new tax laws going into effect back then and tax laws sunsetting this time. Those you can go into by reviewing my other charts I have published over the years here. I stretched the 1987 pattern to fit the low to the high, so it isn't "exactly" the same time day-to-day for this pattern. I found it interesting because the chart of AMEX:IWM all by itself had the same "look" to me as the 1987 bull market and crash so I decided to put it together for you all here to see. I would expect a choppy market from here on as people adjust to the new uncertainties. Sellers of this decline will be shy to reinvest anytime soon and buyers are likely afraid to step up and get aggressive with so much uncertainty. Sentiment as measured by AAII shows an extremely fearful and reluctant investor class, which is typical to see at major market bottoms. Wishing everyone peace and prosperity! Tim West 11:17AM EST April 24, 2025
AMEX:IWMLong
by timwest
3
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for August 4–8, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for August 4–8, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📦 U.S. Tariffs Finalized as August 7 Deadline Nears President Trump’s administration confirmed newly finalized tariff rates—ranging from 10% to over 40%—on dozens of countries, set to take effect starting August 7. The announcement has heightened global trade uncertainty and injected volatility into equity markets 📉 Weak Jobs Data Spurs Concern July’s nonfarm payrolls came in at just 73,000 jobs added, far below expectations, while revisions to May and June data subtracted a combined 258,000 jobs. In response, the administration fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics head, escalating political risk around economic transparency 📈 U.S. Shows Resilience Amid Policy Chaos Despite the tariff-era turbulence and labor softness, U.S. Q2 GDP rose by 3%—outperforming forecasts. Businesses racked up inventory as a hedge, absorbing initial price shocks. Still, concerns about sustained inflation pressures and waning consumer confidence linger 🎯 Earnings Week Spotlight on Tech & Industrial Names Major companies reporting include Palantir (Monday), AMD, Uber, Disney, McDonald’s, Gilead, Pfizer, Constellation Energy, and Eli Lilly. Markets will watch for AI signals, consumer demand, and industrial trends 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, August 4 Factory Orders (June) — Critical for industrial demand and trade momentum. 📅 Tuesday, August 5 ISM U.S. Services PMI (July) — Thermometer for expansion in the biggest part of the economy. S&P U.S. Services PMI (July, flash) — Preliminary signal on service-sector strength. Trade Balance (June) — Watching for impact of tariffs and shifting cross-border flows. 📅 Thursday, August 7 Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims — Weekly labor-market readings post weak payroll report. Productivity & Labor Costs (Q2) — Reflect business efficiency and wage trend shifts. Wholesale Inventories (June) — Key for supply-chain and inventory cycle insights. Consumer Credit (June) — Measures household borrowing resilience. 📅 Friday, August 8 Fed Speech: St. Louis Fed President Musalem — Market-watchers will look for cues on the near-term rate path. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This weekly outlook is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #jobs #earnings #inflation #Fed #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
ES | SP500 - Weekly Recap & Gameplan - 03/08/25📈 Market Context: Traders are currently anticipating a possible 0.25% rate cut during the upcoming September FOMC meeting, which continues to support the broader bullish framework. Although the market pulled back after the Non-Farm Employment Change data came in below expectations, overall optimism remains. Sentiment has now cooled off from last week's greed and shifted to a more neutral stance. Historically, August tends to bring some chop and pullbacks, but the structural bias still leans bullish. 🧾 Weekly Recap: • ES kicked off the week with strong upward momentum, climbing steadily into Thursday. • Along the way, price swept a key 4H swing high, breaking into new highs before initiating a retracement. • This price action hinted at a short-term distribution and possible liquidity grab ahead of a correction. 📌 Technical Outlook & Game Plan: → I'm anticipating a move into the Monthly Fair Value Gap — a high-probability liquidity zone on my radar. → That area could act as a springboard for bullish continuation or at least provide a strong reaction. → Until that happens, I remain short-biased targeting the 6226$ zone, which I've marked as a major level. 🎯 Setup Trigger: Once price taps 6226$, I'll monitor for: • Clear break of structure on the 4H and 1H timeframes • Formation of new demand zones indicating potential reversal → On confirmation from the lower timeframes, I’ll shift my focus toward long setups, potentially targeting new highs. 📋 Trade Management: • Stoploss: Below the demand zone formed on 1H–4H • Target: I’ll trail my stop to lock in profits as price moves higher • Note: Although I’ll be watching for ATH retests, I plan to manage risk actively and book profits along the way 💬 Like, follow, and comment if this breakdown supports your trading! I’ll be sharing more detailed setups and educational posts — stay connected!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
NQ | NASDAQ - Weekly Recap & Gameplan - 03/08/25📈 Market Context: The market is pricing in a potential 0.25% rate cut in the September FOMC meeting, keeping the overall structure bullish. Although we saw a retracement after the Non-Farm Employment Change came in weaker than expected, bullish sentiment remains intact. Currently, market sentiment has shifted to neutral from last week’s greed. Augusts are often choppy and prone to retracement/accumulation, but structurally, bulls still hold the upper hand. 🧾 Weekly Recap: • NQ started the week strong with price discovery, pushing higher from Monday to Thursday. • Eventually, price ran a key 4H swing liquidity, which led to another all-time high. • That move was followed by the start of a healthy retracement, signaling short-term distribution. 📌 Technical Outlook & Game Plan: → I'm expecting price to run into the Monthly Fair Value Gap — a major liquidity magnet in my model. → That move could generate significant bullish energy — at least a short-term bounce, if not a full reversal. → Until then, I remain bearish targeting 22,583 (my marked black line). 🎯 Setup Trigger: After price takes 22,583, I’ll watch for: • 4H–1H break of structure (BOS) • Formation of fresh demand zones → Upon LTF confirmation, I’ll look to go long aiming for another test of all-time highs. 📋 Trade Management: • Stoploss: Below the 1H–4H demand zone • Target: Trailing stop strategy; aggressive profit-taking on the way up • Note: Final target could be all-time highs, but I’ll manage the position actively 💬 Like, follow, and comment if this outlook adds value to your trading. Educational content and more setups are coming soon — stay tuned!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
Watching for Pullback Below $84 in Citigroup (C)Over the past month, Citigroup shares have appreciated 8.58%, outperforming both the Finance sector's 1.91% gain and the S&P 500's 3.92% increase. This relative outperformance may signal strength, but short-term positioning and market structure suggest a potential shift. Expecting a Sharp Move Below $84 – Option Flow Insight Despite the recent strength, I anticipate a significant downward move below the $84 level in the upcoming week. This expectation is based on notable option activity detected in the Times & Sales feed, specifically large put orders suggesting bearish positioning. In response to this setup, I plan to execute a bearish vertical spread, specifically: Buying the $84 puts Selling the $80 puts This strategy limits downside risk while still profiting from a potential retracement. Fundamental Picture Ahead of Earnings Citigroup's next earnings release is scheduled for July 15, 2025. The company is expected to report: EPS of $1.70 (+11.84% YoY) Revenue of $20.85B (+3.51% YoY) For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate forecasts: EPS of $7.38 (+24.03%) Revenue of $83.84B (+3.33%) While these figures suggest healthy growth, it's important to note that recent analyst estimate revisions have been modestly negative, with the EPS estimate decreasing 0.27% over the last 30 days. Citigroup currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), reflecting a neutral sentiment from analysts. Valuation Metrics From a valuation standpoint: Forward P/E: 10.75, notably below the industry average of 15.02 PEG ratio: 0.61, versus the industry average of 1.26 This indicates that Citigroup is undervalued relative to its peers, especially when considering growth prospects, which could provide some support. However, short-term bearish flows may dominate price action heading into earnings. Industry Outlook The Financial - Investment Bank industry, which includes Citigroup, currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, placing it in the top 40% of over 250 industry groups. Historically, industries in the top half outperform those in the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.
NYSE:CShort
by Wiiso