SOLID BIOSCIENCES—$SLDB CASHES UP FOR GENE THERAPY PUSHSOLID BIOSCIENCES— NASDAQ:SLDB CASHES UP FOR GENE THERAPY PUSH
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! Solid Biosciences is stacking cash—no revenue yet, but a $200M raise has tongues wagging 📈🔥. NASDAQ:SLDB ’s betting big on gene therapy—here’s the scoop! 🚀
(2/9) – CASH, NOT SALES
• Revenue: Zilch—clinical-stage vibes 💥
• Q3 ‘24 Loss: $0.61/share, missed $0.58 est. 📊
• Cash Boost: $200M offering just landed
No sales, but NASDAQ:SLDB ’s war chest is growing!
(3/9) – BIG MOVE
• Feb 18 Raise: $200M via 35.7M shares, warrants 🌍
• Cash Pile: Was $171M, now nearing $350M 🚗
• Goal: Fuel SGT-003 trials into ‘27 🌟
NASDAQ:SLDB ’s loading up for the long haul!
(4/9) – SECTOR CHECK
• Market Cap: $500M post-raise 📈
• Vs. Peers: Sarepta’s 13B dwarfs it—revenue rules
• Edge: Low EV ($150M), big therapy dreams
Undervalued biotech bet or long shot? 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS ON DECK
• Trials: SGT-003 flops could sink it ⚠️
• Sentiment: 30% drop from Jan peak—jitters 🏛️
• Burn: $20-25M/quarter—clock’s ticking 📉
High stakes, high risks—can it deliver?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Cash: $200M raise powers trials 🌟
• SGT-003: Early data dazzles, Fast Track nod 🔍
• DMD Focus: Huge need, blockbuster shot 🚦
NASDAQ:SLDB ’s got fuel and firepower!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: No revenue, all-in on one play 💸
• Opportunities: $2-4B cap if trials pop 🌍
Can NASDAQ:SLDB turn cash into a cure?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:SLDB ’s $200M haul—your take?
1️⃣ Bullish—Gene therapy gold ahead.
2️⃣ Neutral—Wait for trial proof.
3️⃣ Bearish—Risks outweigh the buzz.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
NASDAQ:SLDB ’s revenue-free, but $200M keeps SGT-003 alive—stock’s buzzing 🌍🪙. Low EV vs. peers, yet trials and rivals loom. Cure or bust?
Stocks
AMAZON Excellent buy opportunity for a new ATH.Last time we looked at Amazon Inc. (AMZN) was three months ago (November 13 2024, see chart below), giving a pull-back buy signal:
The price action couldn't have followed this more accurately as after a short-term pull-back, the stock hit our $240.00 Target at the end of January.
Since then the price started to pull-back again to a point where this week it broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since September 11 2024. With the 1D RSI on the 40.00 mark, this pull-back resembles the April 25 2024 Low, made near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
We expect a similar medium-term rebound to start towards the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is marginally below it at $252.50.
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Walmart (WMT) Stock Drops Over 6%Walmart (WMT) Stock Drops Over 6%
As shown in the Walmart (WMT) stock chart, trading on 20th February closed at $97.26, whereas the previous day, the stock was trading around $103. The decline of over 6% marks the largest drop in Walmart (WMT) stock price in 15 months.
Why Did Walmart (WMT) Stock Drop?
The bearish momentum emerged after Walmart’s earnings report, which was actually quite strong, as:
→ Sales growth reached 5.2%;
→ The company exceeded analysts' expectations (earnings per share were 2% higher than forecasts);
→ Walmart announced a 13% dividend increase.
However, WMT stock fell because the retail giant released a profit forecast for 2025 that came in below market expectations. This was attributed to uncertain consumer behaviour and geopolitical conditions. Additionally, investors may have been dissatisfied with increased executive compensation.
Walmart (WMT) Stock Technical Analysis
The chart shows that after the decline, the price is consolidating near support levels formed by:
→ The lower boundary of the ascending channel;
→ Former resistance around $96.
The situation resembles November 2023, when the market also reacted negatively to an earnings report. However, WMT stock later recovered, and a similar scenario could unfold in 2025.
Analytical Walmart (WMT) Stock Price Forecasts
Analysts remain optimistic. According to Yahoo Finance:
→ The average 12-month price target for WMT is $107.25;
→ Of the 42 analysts surveyed, 38 recommend buying WMT stock.
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US500 - Follow the Optimism!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 As per my latest US500 analysis (attached to the chart), it rejected the blue circle zone and surged by over 5%.
What's next?
🏹 As long as US500 remains within the short-term rising channel marked in red, any bearish movement toward the lower red trendline should be considered a correction and a potential opportunity to look for trend-following long positions.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.21.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🛢️ Trump Considers 25% Tariff on Imported Cars: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, aiming to protect domestic manufacturers. This move could impact global trade relations and the automotive industry.
🇷🇺🇺🇸 U.S.-Russia Diplomatic Talks: High-level discussions between U.S. and Russian officials are set to continue, focusing on resolving the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Outcomes from these talks may influence global markets and geopolitical stability.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Friday, Feb 21:
🏭 Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 51.3; Previous: 51.2.
💼 Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): Forecast: 53.0; Previous: 52.9.
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 4.13M; Previous: 4.24M.
📉 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 71.1; Previous: 67.8.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
$SOFI is poised to reach the $20 range following its correctionNASDAQ:SOFI 's price began 2025 at $15.40. Today, it traded at $15.56, marking a 1% increase since the start of the year. The forecasted price for SoFi at the end of 2025 is $41.23, representing a year-over-year change of +168%. The expected rise from today to year-end is +165%.
By mid-2025, the price is projected to reach $20-$29.56.
Strong Growth Prospects: NASDAQ:SOFI has shown significant growth in revenue and profitability. The company reported a 35.8% year-over-year revenue growth and a 45% net profit margin in 20241.
Positive Market Trends: Analysts are optimistic about NASDAQ:SOFI 's future performance, with some projecting a 72% upside potential, targeting a $25 share price.
Diverse Financial Services: NASDAQ:SOFI offers a wide range of financial services, including lending, investing, and banking, which helps diversify its revenue streams and reduce risk.
Member Growth: The company has been experiencing robust member growth, which is a positive indicator of its expanding customer base and market reach.
Buy NASDAQ:SOFI now and let's get wealthy!
$PLTR WILL RETEST $112-115 PIVOT POINTAn overreaction in financial markets occurs when securities are excessively overbought or oversold, driven more by psychological factors than by underlying fundamentals.
The last two-day dip was excessively sold off.
BUY NASDAQ:PLTR NOW TO GET THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE OR RESTEST OF $112-115.
From there, let's see if the market pushes NASDAQ:PLTR to $120 or higher.
Investing in Palantir Technologies Inc. ( NASDAQ:PLTR ) could be appealing for several reasons:
Strong Growth Potential: Analysts expect Palantir to experience significant business volume growth in the coming years, with high growth rates anticipated.
High Profit Margins: The company has particularly high margins before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, contributing to strong profitability.
Financial Stability: Palantir has a sound financial situation, providing it with significant leeway for investment and expansion.
Positive Analyst Revisions: Over the past year, analysts have regularly revised their sales and earnings forecasts upwards, reflecting renewed optimism about the company's future performance
META: 2nd Expansion Era targets $900 by the end of the year.Meta may have only now turne bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.480, MACD = 20.520, ADX = 63.183) but on 1W it has been on an exceptionally healthy bullish tech (RSI = 66274) since the October 2022 bottom. Ever since that was formed, Meta entered its 2nd Expansion era with similarities in price and RSI terms obvious with the 1st Expansion era of 2012-2018. As long as the 1W MA50 supports, we can see a similar Channel Up targeting $900 by the end of 2025.
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GDX - Gold Miners ETF: Inverse Head & shouldersGold prices have surged to unprecedented levels in light of recent trade policy changes. The announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding a new 25% tariff on essential imports such as cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals has created a wave of uncertainty among investors. This risk-off sentiment has driven many to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.
Nevertheless, this upward momentum may encounter challenges if a trade agreement with China comes to fruition. A successful deal could alleviate global trade tensions, leading to a decrease in gold demand and possibly resulting in selling pressure.
However sustained high bullion prices could prove to be a significant advantage for gold miners. The GDX ETF is showing a persistent inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating potential for further gains.
$TKA THYSSENKRUPP & IVECO—HIDDEN DEFENCE GEMS SHINEXETR:TKA THYSSENKRUPP & IVECO—HIDDEN DEFENCE GEMS SHINE
(1/9)
Good afternoon, Tradingview! Thyssenkrupp’s stock soared 20% this week—defence spending’s the buzz 📈🔥. Investors eye TKMS and Iveco’s IDV as undervalued stars. Let’s unpack this rally! 🚀
(2/9) – MARKET SURGE
• Thyssenkrupp: 20% spike Monday, 53% YTD 💥
• Iveco: 68% YTD—IDV’s 10% margin shines 📊
• Driver: Europe’s military budget boom
Defence cash is flipping the script—big gains!
(3/9) – DEFENCE PLAYS
• TKMS Spin-Off: Warship unit set for ‘25 🌍
• Iveco IDV: Defence arm spins out in ‘25 🚗
• BofA: TKMS worth half Thyssenkrupp’s cap 🌟
Hidden gems catching the spotlight!
(4/9) – SECTOR SNAPSHOT
• Defence P/E: 25.8x vs. 18x 3 yrs ago 📈
• Thyssenkrupp & Iveco: ~8x—bargains?
• Vs. Giants: Rheinmetall, BAE soar, but these lag
Value hunt’s on—undervalued or overhyped? 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH
• Peace Talks: Ukraine deal softens demand? ⚠️
• Execution: Spin-offs need to deliver 🏛️
• Focus: Beyond big defence names risky 📉
Rally’s hot—can it hold the heat?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Thyssenkrupp: €16B+ TKMS backlog 🌟
• Iveco: IDV’s 10% profit margin 🔍
• Cash Flow: Thyssenkrupp hits €0-300M ‘25 🚦
Defence muscle’s flexing hard!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Thyssenkrupp’s steel drag, Iveco’s focus 💸
• Opportunities: EU budget hikes, spin-off buzz 🌍
Can these sleeper hits wake up big?
(8/9) –Thyssenkrupp & Iveco defence bets—your call?
1️⃣ Bullish—Spin-offs spark a surge.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s there, risks balance.
3️⃣ Bearish—Rally fades fast.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Thyssenkrupp’s 20% leap, Iveco’s IDV glow—defence cash ignites hidden plays 🌍🪙. Cheap vs. giants, but risks lurk. Gems or mirage?
SPX Target 6270 - Can It Get There?SPX Targets 6270 – But Can It Get There? | SPX Market Analysis 20 Feb 2025
The SPX is climbing like a caffeinated squirrel... ok, maybe not. It’s more like a slightly confused sloth trying to find second gear!..., while DJX and RUT are stuck in the mud.
The breakout move we’ve been waiting for has arrived, and now the question is—does it have enough fuel to hit 6270, or will it stumble and trigger my hedge at 6100? Bollinger Bands are too tight for reliable setups, so I’m sticking with my 6 money-making patterns until volatility expands.
Let’s break it all down…
---
SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📈 SPX is Soaring (like a fat pigeon!) – But the Other Indexes Aren’t Joining the Party
While SPX is off making new highs, its friends DJX and RUT seem to have lost their invitations.
DJX is struggling to gain meaningful ground 📉
RUT can’t even catch an uptick, making it the weakest of the bunch ❌
Meanwhile, SPX is leading the way, with a clear breakout in play
A closely following NDX is nipping at SPX's heals
💡 Breakout Confirmed – But Can It Hold?
Scenario #1 from our previous discussions has unfolded—the range has broken out.
Target: 6270 🎯
Hedge trigger: 6100 in case the move fails
This is the good kind of waiting—waiting for profits to materialise
🔄 Why I’m Avoiding Tag ‘n Turn Setups Right Now
Normally, after a breakout, I’d shift back to Tag 'n Turn setups. But there’s a problem…
Bollinger Bandwidth is too tight, making moves too fast
Price is flipping from one side of the bands to the other
A Bollinger Band pinch is forming, indicating more compression before expansion
So, what’s the plan?
✅ I’ll continue to use my 6 money-making patterns
✅ I’ll wait for volatility to expand before returning to Bollinger setups
✅ No forced trades—only high-probability moves
🚀 Final Takeaway?
The breakout is here, the target is set, and the plan is clear. Now, it’s time to let the market do its thing and wait for the move to play out.
---
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2018, Amazon briefly became a $1 trillion company—but it only stayed there for a few hours before dropping back below the threshold.
💡 The Lesson? Even the biggest breakouts can be short-lived—just because a stock (or index) makes a new high doesn’t mean it will stay there forever. Always have a plan—targets and hedge triggers matter.
ELIT - LOW CHEATELIT - LOW CHEAT
(+):
1. Low risk entry point
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (82)
9. Stock build VCP Characteristic
Try to Adding with some basic fundamental about EPS growth:
a. Quarterly QoQ: +31.29%
b. Quarterly YoY: 653.96%
c. Annual YoY: +75.48%
d. TTM YoY: +220.19%
(-):
1. Stock not confirm on stage 2 uptrend if not break the blue line
Note:
- Consider to add some position if break the blue line
- Market look bottoming, just wait this stock to breakout with high volume
Share Price of Analog Devices (ADI) Soars by Approximately 10%Share Price of Analog Devices (ADI) Soars by Approximately 10% in a Day
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) set a new record yesterday, following the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. As it became known, committee members would like to see inflation decline further; however, in their view, potential changes in trade and immigration policies could "complicate" the disinflation process.
Analog Devices (ADI) Shares Among Top Gainers
Amid predominantly bullish sentiment in the current US stock market, Analog Devices (ADI) shares surged by approximately 10% in a single day following the release of quarterly results. The company exceeded analysts' expectations on earnings per share by 5.5%, while gross revenue came in 2.68% above forecasts.
According to MarketWatch:
→ Analog Devices has increased its dividend by 8% and expanded its share buyback programme by $10 billion.
→ CEO Vincent Roche stated that "we have moved past the cyclical downturn, and the situation has turned in our favour," giving an optimistic outlook for the second half of 2025.
Technical Analysis of Analog Devices (ADI) Shares
The ADI stock chart shows that the price is forming a long-term upward trend (illustrated by the blue channel), with the following key observations:
→ The ongoing rise suggests a major breakout of the Bull Flag pattern, indicating a resumption of long-term growth following a correction.
→ The psychological level of $200 has shifted from resistance to support—a similar development could occur at the $240 level, where the current all-time high is located.
Analog Devices (ADI) Share Price Forecast
Analysts are mostly optimistic. According to Yahoo Finance:
→ 18 out of 29 surveyed analysts recommend buying ADI shares.
→ The average 12-month price target for ADI shares stands at $257.
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Canadian Venture index --- Inverse head & shouldersGold has reached unprecedented heights, approaching the $3000 mark—a prediction we made with precision. Now is the moment to turn our attention to silver and the mining sector.
To start, let's examine the Canadian venture index, which is displaying a promising inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am confident that the logarithmic projection will be achieved without much difficulty.
Datadog: S&P 500 Candidate?! Key Levels to Watch Now!Hi there,
When we talk about the most respected stocks in the market, getting added to the S&P 500 index is a big milestone for any company. It’s not just a status symbol—it’s an event that can push the stock price higher as funds and investors rush to buy it.
Datadog (DDOG) is one of the potential candidates , so let’s analyze what the price action is telling us.
Technical Breakdown:
Right now, Datadog stock is testing a key support level of around $130. This price level has acted as both resistance and support in the past, and in November last year, the stock broke above it. Now, it has come back to retest this level, possibly looking for a base before making its next move.
If $130 holds as support, and the company’s fundamentals remain strong, this could be a solid entry point for buyers.
A secondary support zone to watch is near $100, about 25% lower than the current price. This level has seen big price movements before, meaning there could be strong interest from traders and investors if the stock drops there.
As legendary investor Peter Lynch once said:
"If you sell instead of buying when a stock drops 25%, you won’t achieve long-term profits in stocks."
This idea is also the foundation of my approach – what to do when the price drops? Am I ready to buy more at lower prices? If the answer is something like “probably not,” “not sure,” etc., then it’s worth considering whether it’s even worth buying in the first place!
Plans for different types of investors:
Short-Term Investors: If you’re looking for a quick trade, you might want to wait for a dip to $100, where a stronger bounce could happen. Buying from current prices can be a bit risky considering short-term horizons.
Long-Term Investors: If you believe in Datadog’s continued growth, the $130 level might already be a good spot to start buying. But be ready to buy more if the price drops further.
Final Thoughts:
Datadog is a fast-growing company with strong fundamentals, but the stock also has a high valuation and faces competition. As always, do your own research and make sure your investment strategy fits your risk level and goals.
Cheers,
Vaido
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Thursday, Feb 20:
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K.
📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
META’S Q4 2024—$META RIDES AI AND ADS TO VICTORYMETA’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:META RIDES AI AND ADS TO VICTORY
(1/9)
Good evening, Tradingview! Meta’s Q4 2024 earnings landed—$48.4B revenue, up 21% YoY, topping estimates 📈🔥. A 16.5% stock rally seals the deal. Let’s unravel NASDAQ:META ’s big win! 🚀
(2/9) – AD & AI POWER
• Q4 Revenue: $48.4B, 21% jump from last year 💥
• Profits: Nearly $21B—up 49%—efficiency shines 📊
• Ad Surge: Biggest driver, fueling the cash flow
AI’s humming, ads are king—Meta’s on fire!
(3/9) – KEY WINS
• AI Spend: $60B+ lined up for ‘25 🌍
• Users: 3.35B daily logins—record crowd 🚗
• Meta AI: 700M monthly fans—AI’s buzzing 🌟
Stock’s tearing up the charts—hot streak alert!
(4/9) – SECTOR SMACKDOWN
• Forward P/E: ~28x, leaner than Amazon’s 33x
• Ad Game: 21% growth beats Google’s 12% 📈
• User Pull: Social king—rivals can’t touch it
NASDAQ:META ’s a growth beast—hidden value or hype? 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS ON THE HORIZON
• Regs: EU and U.S. eyeing fines—trouble brews? 🏛️
• AI Bet: $60B spend—payoff’s a question ⚠️
• Saturation: 3.35B users tough to top 📉
High stakes in this tech showdown!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Ad Muscle: $46.8B in Q4—ad king rules 🌟
• AI Edge: 700M Meta AI users—future’s here 🔍
• Cash Pile: $52B free flow in ‘24 🚦
NASDAQ:META ’s flexing serious firepower!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Metaverse burns SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B , AI costs stack 💸
• Opportunities: Threads hits 100M+, AI ads shine 🌍
Can NASDAQ:META spin risks into wins?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:META ’s Q4 rocks—what’s the vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI and ads keep it roaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s cool, risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Big spends clip its wings.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Meta’s Q4 dazzles—$48.4B revenue, $21B profit, AI soaring 🌍🪙. 28x P/E vs. peers, but growth’s electric. Regs and AI costs loom—gem or gamble?
APPLOVIN’S Q4 2024—$APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGEAPPLOVIN’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGE
(1/9)
Good evening, Tradingview! AppLovin’s Q4 2024 earnings hit—$1.37B revenue, up 44% YoY, crushing $1.26B estimates 📈🔥. AI-powered AXON drives a 37% stock pop. Let’s unpack NASDAQ:APP ’s monster quarter! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS
• Q4 Revenue: $1.37B, +44% YoY ($953.3M Q4 ‘23) 💥
• Ad Revenue: $999.5M, +73% YoY
• Apps Revenue: $373.3M, -1% YoY 📊
• EPS: $1.73, beats $1.24 est.
• Net Income: $599.2M, +248% YoY
(3/9) – BIG MOVES
• Stock Surge: +37% post-earnings (Feb 13) 🌍
• Buybacks: $2.1B retired 25.7M shares in ‘24 🚗
• Debt Play: $3.55B notes issued Nov ‘24 💸
• Q1 ‘25 Guide: $1.355-1.385B, tops $1.32B est.
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: $175B (Feb 13) 🌟
• Trailing P/E: 116 vs. TTD (50), META (33)
• Growth: 44% YoY beats TTD (26%), META (19%)
• 1Y Stock: +1,000%, 2Y: +3,000%
Premium price, growth screams value!
(5/9) – RISKS TO FLAG
• Valuation: 116 P/E—high stakes, no misses 📉
• Debt: $3.51B vs. $567.6M cash—leverage looms ⚠️
• AI Rivals: Google, Meta eye AXON’s turf 🏛️
• Regs & Economy: Ad spend cuts lurk
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Growth: 44% revenue, $599M profit soars 🌟
• Margins: 62% EBITDA, $2.1B FCF in ‘24 🔍
• AXON: 73% ad surge—AI’s the champ 🚦
NASDAQ:APP ’s a profit powerhouse!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Apps dip (-1%), $3.51B debt 💸
• Opportunities: E-commerce ads, AI edge, acquisitions 🌍
Can NASDAQ:APP turn risks into riches?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:APP ’s Q4 stuns—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI keeps it soaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth holds, risks balance.
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation bites back.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
AppLovin’s Q4 dazzles—$1.37B revenue, $599M profit, stock blazing 🌍🪙. High P/E, but AI growth shines. Debt and rivals loom—gem or peak?
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below:
1. Which stocks to choose?
2. At what price should the trade be made?
3. In what volume?
As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait.
However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map.
Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right.
Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis
When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks.
Vertical line Alpha - Y axis
Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions.
Fear of the button
This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready.
Enthusiasm
At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
FOMO
FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there.
Zen
The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills.
Disappointment
This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy.
Euphoria
Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue.
Tilt
A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value.
Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
AMD: Hit rock bottom. Huge upside potential from here.Advanced Micro Devices Inc turned neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.032, MACD = -2.460, ADX = 22.524) signaling a potential reversal of the long term bearish trend. This month the price hit the 1M MA50 and if it managed to close the 1M candle over it, we expect to have a market bottom formed much like October 2022 and April 2018. A rally of at least +275% started following both of those bottoms. We believe the risk of buying here is low and the reward high and thus turn bullish (TP = 390.00).
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