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The last 4 previous Stockmarket Fear spikes were great buys...for Bitcoin, allowing investors to enhance their long-term holdings. Purchasing risk assets when the #VIX exceeds 50 and over 20% of stocks fall below their 200-day moving average has consistently yielded positive returns, with a success rate of one hundred percent when evaluated one week, one month, and three months later. This particular scenario has only happened 11 times in the history of the S&P 500, and the reading from Monday, April 7th, marked one of those rare instances. #BTFD
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
2
LYFT, 3D Daily Breakout Confirms Potential Mid-Term ReversalOn the 3-day chart of Lyft, price action is developing within a potential mid-term reversal structure. The key trigger was the breakout of the descending trendline on the daily timeframe, signaling a shift in momentum after an extended downtrend. The asset bounced from the long-term ascending support zone around $9.66, and the structure now points to a possible expansion toward key Fibonacci retracement levels: Upside targets based on Fibo levels: – $14.36 (0.5) – $15.47 (0.618) – $17.05 (0.786) – Extended: $24.88 (1.618) Technical Highlights: – Breakout confirmed on daily chart trendline – 3D chart shows tightening triangle pattern – Stochastic momentum turning bullish from oversold levels – Volume profile supports accumulation, not distribution – Resistance zone: $14.30–$17.00 – Holding above the breakout trendline keeps the bullish setup valid Fundamental Context: Lyft is restructuring operations, with narrowed losses, improved efficiency, and customer retention focus. The company is regaining share in the ride-hailing segment, and investors are beginning to price in operational stabilization. The improving sentiment is reflected in growing institutional interest and mid-term positioning. This is a potential mid-term bullish scenario, activated by the daily breakout and confirmed if price holds above the trendline. A push above $15.50–$17.00 could unlock the full target at $24.88. As long as structure holds, this remains a strong trend reversal setup.
NASDAQ:LYFTLong
by TotoshkaTrades
4
RF 1D: Breakout or Just a Bullish Pause?Regions Financial (ticker: RF) finally escaped the descending channel it had been stuck in for nearly 8 months — like someone who missed their stop and woke up in a different state. The breakout came with volume and a hold above the 50-day MA, which technically gives the bulls a reason to stretch their legs — cautiously. The price has already cleared the 0.618 Fibonacci level (~21.66), and is now pushing toward the 0.5 zone (~22.87). If momentum holds, the next key area is target 1 around 24.00–24.50. Beyond that — and this is where things get ambitious — we have target 2 in the 27.50–28.50 range, which aligns with pre-breakdown resistance from late 2024. RSI is climbing into overbought territory but still confirms the breakout rather than warning of a top — at least for now. On the macro side: U.S. regional banks have had a rough ride in early 2025, but RF has held up better than many peers. The recent earnings beat and visible uptick in volume suggest growing institutional interest. If bond yields keep cooling and risk appetite returns to the value sector, RF could remain in favor. That said, bulls need to see a confirmed hold above 22.80. Otherwise, this could end up as another failed retest — and bears are always lurking just outside the channel.
NYSE:RFLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 13, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 13, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🇺🇸 CPI Data Release Anticipated The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data today at 8:30 AM ET. Economists forecast a 0.3% month-over-month increase, following a 0.1% decline in March. Year-over-year, CPI is expected to remain at 2.4%, with core CPI holding steady at 2.8% . 🤝 U.S.-China Trade Truce Boosts Markets Markets rallied on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days, easing trade tensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,160 points (2.8%), the S&P 500 rose 3.3%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.4%. Major tech stocks like Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ), Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), and Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) saw significant gains . 📈 Coinbase to Join S&P 500 Coinbase Global Inc. ( NASDAQ:COIN ) will be added to the S&P 500 index on May 19, replacing Discover Financial Services. The announcement led to an 11% surge in Coinbase shares during after-hours trading . 💎 Sotheby's to Auction $20M Blue Diamond Sotheby's Geneva is set to auction the "Mediterranean Blue Diamond," a rare 10-carat gem valued at $20 million, today. The auction has garnered significant global interest from collectors and investors . 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Tuesday, May 13: 8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 8:30 AM ET: Core CPI for April 4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Tesla - The Next 7 Days Decide Everything!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is sitting at a crucial structure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Despite the -60% correction which we have been seeing over the past couple of months, Tesla still continuously validates its overall uptrend. That's exactly the reason for my strong bullish thesis and the assumption, that after we see bullish confirmation, Tesla will reject the current support area. Levels to watch: $250, $400 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
7
ROCKET LAB establishing its long-term Support to $32.00It's been too long (September 30 2024, see chart below) since we last took a trade on one of our stock gems, Rocket Lab (RKLB), which smashed through our $14.50 Target: The price is now trading sideways for the past 2 weeks, establishing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the new Support. Having made the Trade War bottom on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it got its much needed overbought technical harmonization and created new long-term demand. The pattern is similar to the 1D MACD Bearish Cross in late May 2024, which also made the price trade sideways before eventually almost testing the previous Resistance. As a result, we expect to see $32.00 in July before the stock breaks to a new All Time High. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:RKLBLong
by TradingShot
NASDAQ Harmonic pattern indicating strong bounce incoming.AI vs. Dot-Com Bubble When drawing parallels between #AI and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, many express concerns that current valuations may be excessively inflated. However, significant differences are apparent. To begin with, the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the NASDAQ-100 is approximately 30, whereas during the dot-com bubble, it skyrocketed to 200, with many companies lacking any earnings in sight. Additionally, the market capitalisation to #GDP ratio reached unprecedented levels in the late 1990s, while today's figures, although still high, are supported by robust earnings and solid cash flows from established business models. Innovations in AI, cloud computing, and digital transformation have fuelled revenue growth, exemplified by #NVIDIA's data centre sales, which surged 409% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and Microsoft's Azure, which experienced a 28% year-over-year increase in 2024. This surge in productivity is being driven by individuals, businesses, and governments alike. As a result, major tech firms are making substantial investments in AI research and development, with clear strategies for monetisation. AI is poised to become a transformative force, akin to the transistor, a groundbreaking invention that scales effectively and permeates various sectors of the economy. Lastly, the Federal Reserve raised interest #rates to 6.5% to tackle inflation after previously lowering them to address Y2K concerns before the bubble burst in 2000. In contrast, current expectations suggest that interest rates will stabilise or decrease, which would support valuations.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by BallaJi
2
NASDAQ Fall? US100 AnalysisHello everyone. We had a volatility at stock market last 2 month, it looks like market had good correction and found new buyer. BUT I DON'T THINK LIKE THAT. After MR. Trump inauguration we saw bear market signals, it was like hedge funds dumped stocks, but after strong sell new buyers came at market and show us pretty good market correction but what will be next? The last 2 months brought intense volatility post-Trump’s inauguration. Hedge funds sold off heavily (S&P 500 dropped ~8% from its December high), but buyers stepped in, pushing a 5% retracement. RSI on SPY shows oversold conditions fading, yet I’m skeptical of this bounce. Why? Bearish signals linger. VIX remains elevated (>20), and volume on up days is weaker than selloffs. Plus, geopolitics could derail this rally. Over the weekend, Ukraine and Russia discussed a 30-day ceasefire. If talks fail, the West’s new sanctions could spike oil prices (Brent crude already testing $80) and hammer energy-heavy indices like XLE or European markets (DAX). I’m watching SPY’s 200-day MA (~510) as key support. A break below could signal a deeper pullback to 480. Energy and tech (QQQ) look vulnerable if sanctions hit. What’s your take—buying this dip or bracing for more downside? Here is my 2 scene what i am expect from market, for me Scene and technical view scene 2 is more logical bur we will see what will be next step for stock market. For collaboration text me in DM!!! Always make your own research!!!
FPMARKETS:US100Short
by elmakacho
WHAT A LOVELY BULLISSH GAP ON AMAZON: A 4RR PROFIT TRADE CLOSEDI just closed this beautiful 4RR trade on Amazon. The trade was entered last week, this new week market open Gap pushed the price high to my 4RR target. Trade Idea; The monthly is extremely bullish. The weekly is also bullish. Daily is bullish as well, so i entered on the daily time frame pull back swing low. Result? A beautiful 4RR profits trade. Next Action? I will wait till the daily frame correct and form a swing low before entering for a bullish trend continuation buy.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Elijahenoch7
Celanese Corp | CE | Long at $39.64Celanese Corp is another chemical company (like Dow Inc) crushed by tariffs and economic headwinds. It's dropped -78% in one year.... However, this is a very strong company with strong credit market interest and no immediate liquidity crisis. From a technical analysis perspective, this... like in 2008 and 2020... is the time to gather shares given it has reached the "abysmal crash" levels based on my selected simple moving averages. In the past, recovery to new highs has taken 1-2 years. History doesn't always repeat, but fear is opportunity in the stock market. If negative news continues to reign, a dip into the high $20's isn't out of the question. If the company can squeak through 2025 and not continue to stack debt (debt/equity=2.43x), the growth opportunity into 2027-2028 looks promising. I'm keeping my targets into 2026 low, but this could be a good buy and hold for the right investor. Targets: $47.00 $54.75
NYSE:CELong
by WorthlessViews
Gold - New All Time High in the making?market context and trend environment This 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside. Price has respected key retracement levels, reinforcing the technical strength of this zone. fair value gap and fibonacci confluence A notable feature of this setup is the alignment between a visible fair value gap and the Fibonacci golden pocket zone, comprising the 0.618–0.65 retracement levels. This convergence of technical tools adds weight to the significance of the support zone around the 3,280–3,300 region. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets. The presence of both in the same area increases the likelihood of price reacting positively here. liquidity sweep and structural reaction Before revisiting this key demand zone, price briefly swept below a local low, which may have served as a liquidity grab to fuel the next bullish leg. This liquidity sweep is followed by a sharp reaction, suggesting that downside pressure may have been absorbed by aggressive buyers positioned at the FVG and golden pocket. Price has since rebounded, and the subsequent price action shows a gradual formation of higher lows, hinting at a shift in short-term order flow back in favor of buyers. projection and bullish scenario The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. Multiple buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) are marked, representing areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered. These zones offer clear targets for bullish expansion. The blue arrowed projection outlines a methodical stair-step advance, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530. strategic framework and trader insight This chart offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement is particularly notable and serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. Rather than anticipating immediate breakout behavior, the projection emphasizes a progressive structure that aligns with how larger players tend to accumulate positions before moving the market. Patience and alignment with structure are emphasized as price prepares for a potential continuation move higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Louigi_24
99
MSTR (Strategy) coming up to $395, the smaller resistance levelNASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350 I personally know someone who played with fire by buying MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by SakisBack
1
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 12–16, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 12–16, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Inflation and Retail Sales Data in Focus Investors are closely watching this week's release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and Retail Sales data on Thursday. These reports will provide insight into inflation trends and consumer spending amid ongoing tariff concerns. 🤝 U.S.-China Trade Talks Resume High-level trade discussions between the U.S. and China are set to continue this week in Switzerland. The outcome of these talks could significantly impact global markets and investor sentiment. 💼 Key Corporate Earnings Reports Major companies including Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ), Cisco ( NASDAQ:CSCO ), Applied Materials ( NASDAQ:AMAT ), and Take-Two Interactive ( NASDAQ:TTWO ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. These reports will offer insights into consumer behavior and the tech sector's performance. 🏦 Federal Reserve Speeches Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday, with other Fed officials also making appearances throughout the week. Their comments will be analyzed for indications of future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 12: No major economic data scheduled. 📅 Tuesday, May 13: 8:30 AM ET: Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 📅 Wednesday, May 14: 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventory Report 📅 Thursday, May 15: 8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales for April 8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization 10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks 📅 Friday, May 16: 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Building Permits for April 10:00 AM ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) for May S&P Global ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
BTC Technical Market Update! $110,000?Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Market Update Over the past several trading sessions, Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated a pattern of strength, particularly visible on the 4-hour chart. Price action has consistently respected the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zones on this timeframe, taking support from these areas without breaching any significant downside levels. This repeated behavior indicates a strong underlying bullish sentiment, suggesting that market participants are actively defending key support zones. Furthermore, Bitcoin recently approached a high-liquidity resistance zone—a level that historically acts as a supply barrier—and not only absorbed the liquidity but also decisively broke through it. This move implies that bullish momentum is firmly in control, and short-term resistance levels are being invalidated one after another. The market structure remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows supporting the current trend. As of now, BTC has just bounced from a 4H FVG and is trading above that support. However, a short-term pullback remains possible. If such a retracement occurs, it is expected to revisit the next significant 4H FVG support zone, which lies approximately between $98,800 and $97,400. This area could act as a strong accumulation zone for buyers, potentially fueling another bullish wave. In the case of renewed upward momentum from this level, Bitcoin could target the $101,000 to $105,000 range in the short to mid-term. Market participants are advised to remain cautious and observe price behavior as it unfolds in the coming days. Technical setups are aligning in favor of the bulls, but volatility may increase near key resistance and support levels. Always base your trades and investment decisions on thorough analysis, and keep in mind that no setup guarantees results. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please ensure you conduct your own independent research and analysis (DYOR) before making any trading or investment decisions.
Long
by Peter_Wade
Will gold reach an all-time high?Gold (XAU/USD) Market Analysis Trend Environment The 4-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) from OANDA illustrates a strong impulsive structure within a broader bullish trend. Following a sharp upward movement that broke through previous structure, gold formed a swing high before entering a corrective phase. The market has since pulled back and appears to be stabilizing near a zone of high confluence, suggesting potential for a renewed move to the upside. Key Levels Support Zone 3,280-3,300 region, characterized by a fair value gap and Fibonacci golden pocket zone (0.618-0.65 retracement levels). Potential Targets Higher lows and break of structure above recent swing highs, with buy-side liquidity levels (BSL) marking areas where buy stops are likely to be clustered. Technical Confluence The alignment of the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement levels in the 3,280-3,300 region increases the likelihood of price reacting positively. Fair value gaps represent inefficiencies in the market caused by strong institutional participation, while the golden pocket is historically known for acting as a magnet for reversals within trending markets. Bullish Scenario The chart projects a potential bullish continuation move, with a series of higher lows anticipated to form en route to a break of structure above recent swing highs. A methodical stair-step advance is expected, respecting interim levels before ultimately attempting to reach the prior high near 3,530. Strategic Framework This analysis offers a methodical roadmap for bullish continuation, rooted in the smart money framework of liquidity, inefficiency, and institutional order flow. The confluence between the fair value gap and Fibonacci retracement serves as a key validation area for bullish traders. By understanding the technical and institutional drivers of the market, traders can better navigate the complexities of the gold market and identify potential opportunities for growth.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Peter_Wade
NZDUSD - Elliott Wave Setup: Eyes on the Buy Zone!NZDUSD - 3D Chart Elliott Wave Outlook We've been tracking NZDUSD over the years and each move continues to align with Elliott Wave Theory. The current structure is unfolding as a large ABC corrective pattern. - Wave A and the complex Wave B (WXY) are now complete. - We're now in Wave C, and we expect it to target the highs of Wave A. Recently, NZDUSD made a clear bullish impulse but has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. This correction is likely to resolve with a bullish breakout. We've marked a buy zone between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels, which we believe is the ideal entry area. We'll be watching this zone closely for lower timeframe bullish confirmations like a break of structure (BOS) or trendline break. Trade Plan: - Wait for price to enter the buy zone - Look for bullish confirmations (BOS, trendline break) - Enter after confirmation, with stops below the corrective lows - Targets: 0.63 (500 pips), 0.65 (700 pips) Goodluck and as always, Trade Safe!
by WicktatorFX
4
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the initial days of this week’s trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a steady to low price movement pattern, successfully achieving a significant target at the Mean Support level of 5601, as indicated in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. Subsequently, the Index experienced a robust rebound, effectively retesting the Mean Resistance level of 5692. This upward trajectory achievement established a reversal pattern for the downward acceleration to repeat the Mean Support level 5601 retest. However, it is critical to recognize the considerable risk of a sharp upward movement from the current price action, which may lead to an ascent toward the next Mean Support level of 5778. Furthermore, there exists the potential for additional escalation, potentially reaching the Outer Index Rally level of 5915 and beyond.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Walt Disney Co | DISThe Walt Disney Company is reportedly exploring options to sell or find a joint venture partner for its India digital and TV business, reflecting the company's ongoing strategic evaluation of its operations in the region. The talks are still in the early stages, with no specific buyer or partner identified yet. The outcome and direction of the process remain uncertain. Internally, discussions have commenced within Disney's headquarters in the United States as executives deliberate on the most viable course of action. These deliberations signify the company's willingness to adapt and optimize its business operations to align with changing market dynamics. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 11 that Disney had engaged with at least one bank to explore potential avenues for assisting the growth of its India business while sharing the associated costs. This approach suggests a proactive stance by the company to explore partnerships or arrangements that can drive growth while minimizing financial burdens. While it is too early to ascertain the exact direction this exploration will take, the developments in Disney's India business warrant attention, as they may shape the future landscape of the company's presence in this all-important region. The ongoing shift from traditional TV to streaming has placed Disney and its competitors in a costly and transformative phase. As part of this transition, Disney is actively cutting costs amid macroeconomic challenges that have impacted its advertising revenue and subscriber growth. CEO Bob Iger has been at the forefront of these changes, and his contract was recently extended through 2026 to allow him sufficient time to make transformative changes while strengthening the bench with future leaders of the company. One of the key considerations for Disney is evaluating its portfolio of TV networks, including ABC and ESPN. Bob Iger has expressed a willingness to be expansive in assessing the traditional TV business, leaving open the possibility of selling certain networks while retaining others acknowledging that networks like ABC may not be core to Disney's new business model. ESPN, as a cable TV channel, is being approached differently. Disney is open to exploring strategic partnerships, such as joint ventures or offloading ownership stakes, to navigate the challenges faced by the sports network. CEO Iger, who had previously expressed pessimism about the future of traditional TV, has found the situation to be worse than anticipated since his return to Disney. Although the linear networks segment, which accounts for Disney's TV properties such as ABC, National Geographic, FX, and FreeForm, has struggled to grow in the recent past, this segment is still an important part of the company's business, which is evident from the positive operating income reported by this segment in fiscal 2022. As below data reveals, the DTC business and content licensing made operating losses in FY 2022 which were offset by the operating income reported by linear networks. For this reason, investors will have to closely monitor a potential sale of TV assets to evaluate the impact of such a decision on Disney's profitability. The broadcasting landscape is experiencing a significant shift, with uncertainties surrounding its future and the changing nature of consumer preferences. While linear television channels are not expected to disappear immediately, their consumption continues to decline as viewers increasingly favor OTT platforms. This transition represents a fundamental trend shaping the industry. In terms of business models, subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services will continue to grow with targeted advertising. As the ascent of streaming video continues, cable, satellite, and internet TV providers in the United States faced their most significant subscriber losses to date in the first quarter of 2023. Analyst estimates indicate a collective shedding of 2.3 million customers during this period. Consequently, the total penetration of pay-TV services in occupied U.S. households, including internet-based services like YouTube TV and Hulu, dropped to its lowest point since 1992, standing at 58.5%, according to Moffett's calculations. In Q1, pay-TV services in the U.S. witnessed a nearly 7% decline in customers compared to the previous year, with cable TV operators experiencing a 9.9% decline, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network registered subscriber losses of 13.4%. Virtual MVPDs, which are multichannel video programming distributors, also suffered significant losses, shedding 264,000 customers during the quarter. Comcast, the largest pay-TV provider in the country, lost 614,000 video customers in Q1, and Google's YouTube TV was the only tracked provider to experience subscriber growth, adding an estimated 300,000 subscribers during the period. These trends illustrate the challenges faced by the pay-TV industry, with factors like increasing sports-broadcast fees driving retail prices higher, leading to cord-cutting and subsequent price adjustments by distributors. By 2026, e-Marketer predicts that the number of non-pay TV households will surpass pay TV households by over 25 million. In efforts to achieve profitability in the streaming business, Disney has implemented significant cost-cutting measures, including saving $5.5 billion through cost reductions and layoffs, and a focus on making Disney+ and Hulu more profitable. Disney aims to enhance Hulu integration, seeing it as a vital component of the company's transition from TV to a streaming-only model. Discussions are also underway for Disney to acquire Comcast Corporation's (CMCSA) stake in Hulu, as Disney currently holds 66% ownership. The company believes that the integration of Hulu and Disney+ will bolster the streaming business and contribute to its profitability. While the negotiations with Comcast over Hulu's valuation are ongoing, the combined offering of Disney+ and Hulu is expected to be available to consumers by the end of the calendar year. Although Disney's plans for ESPN+ and the fate of its other cable channels, such as the Disney Channel, remain uncertain, Bob Iger expects ESPN to eventually move to a streaming-only model, acknowledging the disruptive nature of the traditional TV business model. The discussions surrounding Walt Disney's TV and streaming business in India come at a critical juncture for the company, as it grapples with intensified competition and significant challenges in the market. The emergence of Reliance Industries' JioCinema streaming platform has posed a considerable threat to Disney's dominance, especially after Reliance secured digital rights for the highly popular Indian Premier League cricket tournament. This strategic move by Reliance, which offered free access to the tournament earlier this year, caused a substantial decline in Disney+ Hotstar's subscribers, a popular streaming service under Disney's India business. Additionally, Viacom18, which is backed by Reliance and Paramount Global (PARA), made a significant impact on Disney's market position in India. Through its partnership with Warner Bros, Viacom18 secured content rights to popular shows on HBO including Succession, previously aired on Disney's platform. This collaboration forms a formidable alliance challenging Disney's dominance in the Indian market. Reliance's freemium model poses the most significant threat to Disney's current position. By offering content for free on its streaming platform, JioCinema attracted a substantial number of subscribers through the broadcast of IPL. With its ample cash reserves, Reliance has the advantage of focusing on subscriber growth without immediately focusing on monetization strategies. The loss of streaming rights for the IPL, combined with a subsequent decline in paid subscribers, had a profound impact on Disney's reputation in India in the first quarter of this year, which could very well be the most challenging Q1 Disney has had in India for a long time. A report on video consumption trends in India by Media Partners Asia sheds light on the dynamic landscape of the online video sector in India. For the 15 months that ended in March 2023, total consumption across the online video sector reached a staggering 6.1 trillion minutes. During this period, Disney+ Hotstar emerged as the dominant player in premium VOD, capturing 38% of viewing time. The report attributes Hotstar's success to its strong sports offerings and the depth of its Hindi and regional entertainment content. During the survey period, Zee and Sony together held a 13% share of the Indian premium video sector viewing time. While the two companies are expected to merge pending regulatory approval, they are projected to operate independently for another year, benefiting from strong engagement across sports as well as regional, local, and international content. Prime Video and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) collectively accounted for a 10% share of viewership in the premium VOD category. Prime Video also garnered a significant portion of viewership from regional Indian titles. The report emphasizes that local content dominates premium VOD viewership, particularly outside the sports category, while international content leads paid tiers. Catch-up TV is prevalent in the free tier across freemium streaming platforms. Although Disney was the clear winner in 2022, this report highlights a significant shake-up in the market brought about by the transformation of JioCinema. JioCinema, which previously held a mere 2% share of the premium video market, experienced a major upswing in growth since April. This surge can be attributed to JioCinema's decision to offer free live streaming of the popular IPL cricket tournament, a property that was previously exclusive to Disney-owned media in India. Despite technical glitches impacting user experience, JioCinema witnessed a more than 20-fold increase in consumption in April 2023, enabling it to dominate the premium VOD category. The report raises questions about JioCinema's ability to sustain this growth and scale in the absence of IPL action after June 2023. That being said, this could be an early indication of growth challenges Disney-owned brands may face in India. Star India, now known as Disney Star following the rebranding last year, is expected to experience a revenue drop of around 20% to less than $2 billion for the fiscal year ending September 2023. Additionally, EBITDA is projected to decline by approximately 50% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Hotstar is estimated to lose 8 to 10 million subscribers in its fiscal third quarter as well. Given the current scenario, finding an outright buyer for Disney's India business is expected to be challenging. When Disney acquired the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox in 2019, the enterprise value of the Indian business was estimated at around $15-16 billion. This high valuation, coupled with the intense competition and declining subscriber base, presents a complex landscape for potential buyers or partners. I believe Disney stock is attractively valued today given that the company's streaming business has a long runway for growth internationally while its brand assets will continue to drive revenue higher. As an investor, I am both concerned and curious about what the future holds for Disney's linear networks segment. Going by the recent remarks of CEO Iger, major changes are on their way. A strategic decision to divest non-core assets, in my opinion, will trigger a positive response from the market. That being said, a major divestment of TV assets could materially impact the company's profitability in the next 3-5 years until its streaming business scales enough to replace lost revenue from the linear networks segment. Investors will have to closely monitor new developments to identify a potential inflection point in Disney's story.
NYSE:DIS
by moonypto
4