SPX Target 6270 - Can It Get There?SPX Targets 6270 – But Can It Get There? | SPX Market Analysis 20 Feb 2025
The SPX is climbing like a caffeinated squirrel... ok, maybe not. It’s more like a slightly confused sloth trying to find second gear!..., while DJX and RUT are stuck in the mud.
The breakout move we’ve been waiting for has arrived, and now the question is—does it have enough fuel to hit 6270, or will it stumble and trigger my hedge at 6100? Bollinger Bands are too tight for reliable setups, so I’m sticking with my 6 money-making patterns until volatility expands.
Let’s break it all down…
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
📈 SPX is Soaring (like a fat pigeon!) – But the Other Indexes Aren’t Joining the Party
While SPX is off making new highs, its friends DJX and RUT seem to have lost their invitations.
DJX is struggling to gain meaningful ground 📉
RUT can’t even catch an uptick, making it the weakest of the bunch ❌
Meanwhile, SPX is leading the way, with a clear breakout in play
A closely following NDX is nipping at SPX's heals
💡 Breakout Confirmed – But Can It Hold?
Scenario #1 from our previous discussions has unfolded—the range has broken out.
Target: 6270 🎯
Hedge trigger: 6100 in case the move fails
This is the good kind of waiting—waiting for profits to materialise
🔄 Why I’m Avoiding Tag ‘n Turn Setups Right Now
Normally, after a breakout, I’d shift back to Tag 'n Turn setups. But there’s a problem…
Bollinger Bandwidth is too tight, making moves too fast
Price is flipping from one side of the bands to the other
A Bollinger Band pinch is forming, indicating more compression before expansion
So, what’s the plan?
✅ I’ll continue to use my 6 money-making patterns
✅ I’ll wait for volatility to expand before returning to Bollinger setups
✅ No forced trades—only high-probability moves
🚀 Final Takeaway?
The breakout is here, the target is set, and the plan is clear. Now, it’s time to let the market do its thing and wait for the move to play out.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2018, Amazon briefly became a $1 trillion company—but it only stayed there for a few hours before dropping back below the threshold.
💡 The Lesson? Even the biggest breakouts can be short-lived—just because a stock (or index) makes a new high doesn’t mean it will stay there forever. Always have a plan—targets and hedge triggers matter.
Stocks
ELIT - LOW CHEATELIT - LOW CHEAT
(+):
1. Low risk entry point
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (82)
9. Stock build VCP Characteristic
Try to Adding with some basic fundamental about EPS growth:
a. Quarterly QoQ: +31.29%
b. Quarterly YoY: 653.96%
c. Annual YoY: +75.48%
d. TTM YoY: +220.19%
(-):
1. Stock not confirm on stage 2 uptrend if not break the blue line
Note:
- Consider to add some position if break the blue line
- Market look bottoming, just wait this stock to breakout with high volume
Share Price of Analog Devices (ADI) Soars by Approximately 10%Share Price of Analog Devices (ADI) Soars by Approximately 10% in a Day
The S&P 500 Index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) set a new record yesterday, following the release of minutes from the latest Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. As it became known, committee members would like to see inflation decline further; however, in their view, potential changes in trade and immigration policies could "complicate" the disinflation process.
Analog Devices (ADI) Shares Among Top Gainers
Amid predominantly bullish sentiment in the current US stock market, Analog Devices (ADI) shares surged by approximately 10% in a single day following the release of quarterly results. The company exceeded analysts' expectations on earnings per share by 5.5%, while gross revenue came in 2.68% above forecasts.
According to MarketWatch:
→ Analog Devices has increased its dividend by 8% and expanded its share buyback programme by $10 billion.
→ CEO Vincent Roche stated that "we have moved past the cyclical downturn, and the situation has turned in our favour," giving an optimistic outlook for the second half of 2025.
Technical Analysis of Analog Devices (ADI) Shares
The ADI stock chart shows that the price is forming a long-term upward trend (illustrated by the blue channel), with the following key observations:
→ The ongoing rise suggests a major breakout of the Bull Flag pattern, indicating a resumption of long-term growth following a correction.
→ The psychological level of $200 has shifted from resistance to support—a similar development could occur at the $240 level, where the current all-time high is located.
Analog Devices (ADI) Share Price Forecast
Analysts are mostly optimistic. According to Yahoo Finance:
→ 18 out of 29 surveyed analysts recommend buying ADI shares.
→ The average 12-month price target for ADI shares stands at $257.
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Canadian Venture index --- Inverse head & shouldersGold has reached unprecedented heights, approaching the $3000 mark—a prediction we made with precision. Now is the moment to turn our attention to silver and the mining sector.
To start, let's examine the Canadian venture index, which is displaying a promising inverse head and shoulders pattern. I am confident that the logarithmic projection will be achieved without much difficulty.
Datadog: S&P 500 Candidate?! Key Levels to Watch Now!Hi there,
When we talk about the most respected stocks in the market, getting added to the S&P 500 index is a big milestone for any company. It’s not just a status symbol—it’s an event that can push the stock price higher as funds and investors rush to buy it.
Datadog (DDOG) is one of the potential candidates , so let’s analyze what the price action is telling us.
Technical Breakdown:
Right now, Datadog stock is testing a key support level of around $130. This price level has acted as both resistance and support in the past, and in November last year, the stock broke above it. Now, it has come back to retest this level, possibly looking for a base before making its next move.
If $130 holds as support, and the company’s fundamentals remain strong, this could be a solid entry point for buyers.
A secondary support zone to watch is near $100, about 25% lower than the current price. This level has seen big price movements before, meaning there could be strong interest from traders and investors if the stock drops there.
As legendary investor Peter Lynch once said:
"If you sell instead of buying when a stock drops 25%, you won’t achieve long-term profits in stocks."
This idea is also the foundation of my approach – what to do when the price drops? Am I ready to buy more at lower prices? If the answer is something like “probably not,” “not sure,” etc., then it’s worth considering whether it’s even worth buying in the first place!
Plans for different types of investors:
Short-Term Investors: If you’re looking for a quick trade, you might want to wait for a dip to $100, where a stronger bounce could happen. Buying from current prices can be a bit risky considering short-term horizons.
Long-Term Investors: If you believe in Datadog’s continued growth, the $130 level might already be a good spot to start buying. But be ready to buy more if the price drops further.
Final Thoughts:
Datadog is a fast-growing company with strong fundamentals, but the stock also has a high valuation and faces competition. As always, do your own research and make sure your investment strategy fits your risk level and goals.
Cheers,
Vaido
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US30 | Consolidation or Breakout? Key Levels to Watch! 📊 US30 (Dow Jones) Technical Analysis – February 20, 2025 📉📈
The US30 has been consolidating around the pivot zone (44,404 - 44,550), showing signs of a potential breakout.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
If the price stabilizes above 44,560, we can expect a continuation toward 44,756 and 44,926.
A breakout above 45,000 could trigger further bullish momentum toward 45,323.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
A 4H close below 44,404 may signal weakness, with downside targets at 44,204 and 43,763.
If 43,763 fails to hold, further decline toward 43,212 and 42,769 is possible.
📊 Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 Pivot Zone: 44404 - 44550
🔹 Resistance Levels: 44756 | 44926 | 45323
🔹 Support Levels: 44204 | 43763 | 43212
💬 Will US30 break 44,926 and rally higher, or will it pull back for a correction? Drop your predictions below! 👇🔥
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital.
📊 Key Data Releases:
📅 Thursday, Feb 20:
🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K.
📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
META’S Q4 2024—$META RIDES AI AND ADS TO VICTORYMETA’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:META RIDES AI AND ADS TO VICTORY
(1/9)
Good evening, Tradingview! Meta’s Q4 2024 earnings landed—$48.4B revenue, up 21% YoY, topping estimates 📈🔥. A 16.5% stock rally seals the deal. Let’s unravel NASDAQ:META ’s big win! 🚀
(2/9) – AD & AI POWER
• Q4 Revenue: $48.4B, 21% jump from last year 💥
• Profits: Nearly $21B—up 49%—efficiency shines 📊
• Ad Surge: Biggest driver, fueling the cash flow
AI’s humming, ads are king—Meta’s on fire!
(3/9) – KEY WINS
• AI Spend: $60B+ lined up for ‘25 🌍
• Users: 3.35B daily logins—record crowd 🚗
• Meta AI: 700M monthly fans—AI’s buzzing 🌟
Stock’s tearing up the charts—hot streak alert!
(4/9) – SECTOR SMACKDOWN
• Forward P/E: ~28x, leaner than Amazon’s 33x
• Ad Game: 21% growth beats Google’s 12% 📈
• User Pull: Social king—rivals can’t touch it
NASDAQ:META ’s a growth beast—hidden value or hype? 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS ON THE HORIZON
• Regs: EU and U.S. eyeing fines—trouble brews? 🏛️
• AI Bet: $60B spend—payoff’s a question ⚠️
• Saturation: 3.35B users tough to top 📉
High stakes in this tech showdown!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Ad Muscle: $46.8B in Q4—ad king rules 🌟
• AI Edge: 700M Meta AI users—future’s here 🔍
• Cash Pile: $52B free flow in ‘24 🚦
NASDAQ:META ’s flexing serious firepower!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Metaverse burns SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B , AI costs stack 💸
• Opportunities: Threads hits 100M+, AI ads shine 🌍
Can NASDAQ:META spin risks into wins?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:META ’s Q4 rocks—what’s the vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI and ads keep it roaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s cool, risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Big spends clip its wings.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Meta’s Q4 dazzles—$48.4B revenue, $21B profit, AI soaring 🌍🪙. 28x P/E vs. peers, but growth’s electric. Regs and AI costs loom—gem or gamble?
APPLOVIN’S Q4 2024—$APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGEAPPLOVIN’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGE
(1/9)
Good evening, Tradingview! AppLovin’s Q4 2024 earnings hit—$1.37B revenue, up 44% YoY, crushing $1.26B estimates 📈🔥. AI-powered AXON drives a 37% stock pop. Let’s unpack NASDAQ:APP ’s monster quarter! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS
• Q4 Revenue: $1.37B, +44% YoY ($953.3M Q4 ‘23) 💥
• Ad Revenue: $999.5M, +73% YoY
• Apps Revenue: $373.3M, -1% YoY 📊
• EPS: $1.73, beats $1.24 est.
• Net Income: $599.2M, +248% YoY
(3/9) – BIG MOVES
• Stock Surge: +37% post-earnings (Feb 13) 🌍
• Buybacks: $2.1B retired 25.7M shares in ‘24 🚗
• Debt Play: $3.55B notes issued Nov ‘24 💸
• Q1 ‘25 Guide: $1.355-1.385B, tops $1.32B est.
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: $175B (Feb 13) 🌟
• Trailing P/E: 116 vs. TTD (50), META (33)
• Growth: 44% YoY beats TTD (26%), META (19%)
• 1Y Stock: +1,000%, 2Y: +3,000%
Premium price, growth screams value!
(5/9) – RISKS TO FLAG
• Valuation: 116 P/E—high stakes, no misses 📉
• Debt: $3.51B vs. $567.6M cash—leverage looms ⚠️
• AI Rivals: Google, Meta eye AXON’s turf 🏛️
• Regs & Economy: Ad spend cuts lurk
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Growth: 44% revenue, $599M profit soars 🌟
• Margins: 62% EBITDA, $2.1B FCF in ‘24 🔍
• AXON: 73% ad surge—AI’s the champ 🚦
NASDAQ:APP ’s a profit powerhouse!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Apps dip (-1%), $3.51B debt 💸
• Opportunities: E-commerce ads, AI edge, acquisitions 🌍
Can NASDAQ:APP turn risks into riches?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:APP ’s Q4 stuns—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI keeps it soaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth holds, risks balance.
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation bites back.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
AppLovin’s Q4 dazzles—$1.37B revenue, $599M profit, stock blazing 🌍🪙. High P/E, but AI growth shines. Debt and rivals loom—gem or peak?
Amazon - Catch The Parabolic Rally Now!Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) will start the parabolic rally:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Just a couple of months ago, we finally saw the expected all time high breakout on Amazon. Following the overall governing rising channel pattern, I simply do expect the acceleration of the current rally, the creation of a parabolic rally, but maybe we will see a bullish retest first.
Levels to watch: $180, $400
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below:
1. Which stocks to choose?
2. At what price should the trade be made?
3. In what volume?
As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait.
However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map.
Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right.
Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis
When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks.
Vertical line Alpha - Y axis
Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions.
Fear of the button
This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready.
Enthusiasm
At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
FOMO
FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there.
Zen
The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills.
Disappointment
This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy.
Euphoria
Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue.
Tilt
A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value.
Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
AMD: Hit rock bottom. Huge upside potential from here.Advanced Micro Devices Inc turned neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.032, MACD = -2.460, ADX = 22.524) signaling a potential reversal of the long term bearish trend. This month the price hit the 1M MA50 and if it managed to close the 1M candle over it, we expect to have a market bottom formed much like October 2022 and April 2018. A rally of at least +275% started following both of those bottoms. We believe the risk of buying here is low and the reward high and thus turn bullish (TP = 390.00).
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The Convoluted Wellness Movement Say what you will about RFK Jr, but his ideas, if implemented even in some small ways, would have a drastic impact on the psychopharmaceutical industry. I'm a therapist myself, and I can't tell you how many teenagers are placed on SSRIs and ADHD medication without careful consideration for long term effects. Not that these medications are poisonous - they can be very helpful for many. I do think they are overprescribed, however, and can lead to lifelong dependency if not used carefully or with intent. While I don't think psychedelics would be great for teenagers and their developing brains (says the guy who took mushrooms for the first time at 17), I do think they are a powerful alternative, and do not require as much consistent dosing. The pharmaceutical industry will try to push microdosing, so as to make greater profits.
Do I think psychedelics will be implemented as mental health treatment successfully on the first go-around? Not necessarily. Do I think that certain people with a family history of psychosis and mood disorders should avoid psychedelics? Probably.
The companies at the forefront of this research could be in a decent position to spike in value. They may be eventually bought out by other entities, of course, or simply lose their speculative value. Maybe this is already happening. I'm wondering if CYBIN in particular, is forming a bottom here. It does look trapped in an endless wedge, with every pump getting aggressively sold. However, volume is steadily increasing week by week, which could indicate some hidden accumulation.
MindMedicine may be positioned a little better, from a technical perspective. I've bought back into both MindMedicine and Cybin equally over the last day or two. Not a big position, but perhaps worth the gamble. Each could easily decline by 50% or more from here. MNDMD at least seems to have a healthier chart.
The bigger concern is whether these companies' finances can withstand more time before regulatory clarity, as well as governmental stability as a whole. Things are looking very strange in the U.S. Either way, there is a movement (public or not) towards homeopathic medicine.
I guess we'll see. This investment is entirely speculative, and seems just as likely to trend towards zero as it is to explode 10x in value.
This is my personal opinion, and is meant for personal use only - not as financial advice. These stocks have relatively low volume and are prone to wild price swings.
AIRBNB’S Q4 2024—$ABNB SOARS WITH RECORD GROWTHAIRBNB’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:ABNB SOARS WITH RECORD GROWTH
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview Fam! Airbnb’s Q4 2024 earnings dropped—$2.5B revenue, up 12% YoY, topping $2.42B estimates 📈🔥. Nights booked hit 111M, and a $14% stock surge shows the market’s love. Let’s unpack NASDAQ:ABNB ’s big win! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS
• Q4 Revenue: $2.5B, +12% YoY ($2.2B Q4 ‘23) 💥
• Net Income: $461M vs. -$349M loss last year
• EPS: $0.73, beats $0.61 est. 📊
• Adj. EBITDA: $765M, +4% YoY, 30.8% margin
• GBV: $17.6B, +13% YoY
Travel demand’s fueling the fire!
(3/9) – KEY HIGHLIGHTS
• Stock Surge: +14% post-earnings (Feb 14) 🌍
• Buybacks: $838M in Q4, $3.4B for 2024 🚗
• New Ventures: $200-250M investment in travel services for May ‘25 ✅
NASDAQ:ABNB ’s betting big on growth beyond stays!
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: ~$102B, Stock: $161.2 🌟
• Trailing P/E: 48.87 vs. BKNG (23), EXPE (15)
• Outperforms: 12% revenue growth beats BKNG (6%), EXPE (2%)
Premium valuation, but $4.5B free cash flow says it’s earned!
(5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH
• Economy: Retail sales dip hints travel cuts 📉
• Regs: NYC bans, Barcelona threats loom 🏛️
• Competition: BKNG, EXPE, hotels fight back ⚔️
• Costs: $200-250M spend may squeeze Q1 margins ⚠️
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Growth: 12% revenue, $461M profit shines 🌟
• Cash: SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B net, $4.5B FCF powers buybacks 🔍
• Tech: 535+ upgrades boost scale 🚦
NASDAQ:ABNB ’s a travel titan with muscle!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: High P/E (48.87), Q1 margin dip 💸
• Opportunities: New services ( SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B + potential), LatAm/Asia boom 🌍
Can NASDAQ:ABNB turn expansion into gold?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:ABNB ’s Q4 rocks—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—Growth keeps climbing.
2️⃣ Neutral—Solid, but risks hover.
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation caps it.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Airbnb’s Q4 dazzles—$2.5B revenue, stock soaring, new bets in play 🌍. Premium P/E vs. peers, but growth screams value. Risks lurk—regs, economy. Gem or peak?
$SHOP’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE?NYSE:SHOP ’S Q4 2024—E-COMMERCE KING OR OVERHYPED HUSTLE?
(1/9)
Hey Tradingview crew! Shopify’s Q4 2024 is dropping jaws 📈🔥! $2.81B in revenue—31% YoY blast—$94.5B GMV, and a fat cash flow flex. Is NYSE:SHOP the champ or just flexing? Let’s rip it open! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS BLOWOUT
• Q4 Revenue: $2.81B, +31% YoY—smoked $2.73B est. 💥
• Subscription: $666M, +27%
• Merchant Solutions: $2.15B, +33%
• EPS: $0.44, edged $0.43 est. 📊
• FCF: $611M, 22% margin— GETTEX:25M over est.
NYSE:SHOP ’s cash machine is humming!
(3/9) – BIG WINS
• GMV: $94.5B, +26%—fastest since ‘21 🚗
• Full Year: $8.88B revenue, +25.78% 🌍
• 3-Month Trials: New twist for Q1 ‘25 subs ✅
• Enterprise: 114 deals in 10 quarters—B2B up 132%!
X is buzzing— NYSE:SHOP ’s scaling like a beast!
(4/9) – SECTOR SMACKDOWN
• Market Cap: ~$151.5B, P/E 81, P/S 14.3 🌟
• Vs. NASDAQ:BIGC : Lagging, $CRM/ NASDAQ:ADBE : Broader focus
• NYSE:SHOP ’s 31% growth smokes peers—$94.5B GMV flexes
Pricey, but is it a steal for this hustle? X debates!
(5/9) – RISKS TO DODGE
• Amazon & WooCommerce: Claws out for NYSE:SHOP ’s turf 📉
• Economy: Slowdown could choke GMV ⚠️
• Tariffs: Duty hikes loom— NYSE:SHOP ’s got tools, but ouch!
• Costs: Intern army in ‘25—cash burn risk?
X says watch out—trouble’s lurking!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Revenue: 31% YoY—$2.81B Q4 fury 🌟
• FCF: 22% Q4 margin, 18% ‘24 🔍
• Global: 33% GMV growth, EMEA +37% 🚦
NYSE:SHOP ’s an e-commerce titan—X can’t look away!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: High P/E 81, merchant reliance 💸
• Opportunities: Enterprise boom, AI tools, price hikes 🌍
Can NYSE:SHOP turn hype into gold? X wants to know!
(8/9) – NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is fire—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—$151.5B king keeps slaying
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth’s hot, but risks bite
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation’s a trap, crash incoming
Vote now—let’s brawl it out! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL BLAST
NYSE:SHOP ’s Q4 is a $2.81B thunderclap—GMV soaring, cash flowing 🌍. But competition and costs lurk. Undervalued rocket or overhyped bubble?
Arista Networks Dips 4% Premarket Despite Strong Q4 FinancialsArista Networks (NASDAQ: NYSE:ANET ) saw a 4% dip in premarket trading despite delivering better-than-expected revenue and earnings in its latest quarterly report. The stock's recent movement raises questions about market sentiment and potential buying opportunities.
Strong Revenue and Earnings Growth
Arista Networks, a leader in cloud networking, reported a fourth-quarter revenue of $1.93 billion, reflecting a 7% year-over-year increase. This beat analyst estimates and demonstrated the company’s ability to sustain growth even amid economic uncertainty.
Net earnings surged to $830.1 million (65 cents per share), compared to $664.3 million (52 cents per share) in the prior year. These strong financials reflect Arista’s continued dominance in the cloud networking industry, particularly as it pushes further into AI-driven initiatives.
Additionally, Arista Networks provided an optimistic forecast for the first quarter of 2024, expecting revenue between $1.93 billion and $1.97 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations. This suggests that despite short-term price volatility, the company’s long-term growth remains intact.
Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings
Despite the positive earnings report, NYSE:ANET faced early selling pressure. However, analysts remain bullish on the stock, with an average "Buy" rating from 15 analysts. The 12-month price forecast stands at $108.38, representing a slight downside of -3.12% from the latest price, indicating that the market might already be factoring in Arista’s growth potential.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, NYSE:ANET ’s premarket drop of 4.11% has placed its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47, signaling that the stock is approaching oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels.
Currently, the stock is trading above key moving averages (MA), suggesting that the broader uptrend remains intact. However, the dip brings NYSE:ANET close to its one-month low, a temporary support level that traders should watch closely. If selling pressure continues, a break below this level could lead to further downside.
That said, this retracement could also be a strategic move to sweep liquidity and attract demand for a potential rebound. Investors should watch for price stabilization and confirmation of renewed buying interest before making any decisive moves.
Conclusion
Despite the early sell-off, Arista Networks’ strong fundamentals, growing revenue, and positive long-term outlook position it as a solid investment choice. The recent dip may be an opportunity for traders to capitalize on a short-term pullback before the stock resumes its upward trajectory. As always, monitoring key technical levels and broader market trends will be crucial in assessing NYSE:ANET ’s next move.
TESLA ($TSLA) "Long" -$600-Tesla (TSLA) on the 4-hour chart.
First thing to mention: Weekly Close in 2days about might print a 2nd Doji.
Key Support and Resistance Levels :
The price is currently testing a crucial support level around $350.
Orange Block, 15min unfilled gap. If we take it out and don't lose Cyan trendline I might even add to the trade.
Dotted Cyan lines, 4h resistances
Price might go to $470 or even new high then do retracement to stop out late Longs.
At $620, Projection of past price. I'll be 90% out before this.
If the price breaks above the cyan trend line and holds above $385 it could signal a bullish reversal.
Conversely, if the price fails to hold above these levels and drops below $350, it may continue its downward trend.
Keep an eye on volume during any breakout attempts. Higher volume can confirm the strength of the move.
Monitor key psychological levels like $400 and $500 for further confirmation.
SPX In Limbo - Which way will it break?SPX in Limbo – Will It Break Up or Down? | SPX Market Analysis 19 Feb 2025
Still waiting. Yep, that’s where we are.
The market is about as exciting as watching paint dry, but this is not the time to get impatient. As much as I’d love to jump into a trade just to feel productive, I know better—waiting for the right entry beats chasing the wrong one.
Let’s break it down while we sip on tea and pretend to be Zen masters of market patience.
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SPX Deeper Dive Analysis:
Why Patience is Everything in Trading
There’s an old trading rule that never fails—the market will always move… eventually. But right now, it’s in one of those frustrating, indecisive moods where:
Nothing is confirming (so forcing a trade is a bad idea)
It’s stuck between two key levels (meaning we wait for the breakout or breakdown)
Volume is sluggish (which means false moves are more likely)
Still Watching Two Scenarios
☑ Scenario #1 – The Bullish Breakout Entry
Needs price to confirm above key resistance
No fakeouts—just clean, strong momentum
Only then do I consider a bullish trade
☑ Scenario #2 – The Bearish Reversal Entry
Needs clear rejection at resistance
No weak, choppy movements—just a solid confirmation
Only then do I take a bearish setup
Why Forcing Trades is a Losing Game
Let’s be honest—waiting is boring. But do you know what’s worse? Jumping into a trade just because you're impatient… and then watching it immediately go against you.
Every trader, at some point, has thought:
"It looks like it’s going to move, maybe I should enter early…" (Nope.)
"I don’t want to miss the move…" (You won’t—if you follow the plan.)
"Other traders are jumping in—should I?" (Nope. They’re probably wrong.)
The right trade at the wrong time is still the wrong trade.
What’s Next?
✅ Stay patient—the market will tip its hand soon enough
✅ Wait for clear confirmation—not “I think this might be it” confirmation
✅ Don’t trade out of boredom—trade because the setup is 100% valid
📌 Final Takeaway? Patience = profit. I’m still waiting, tea in hand, and when the market finally makes its move, I’ll be ready.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know?
The stock market used to take 5 months to process a trade before the 1970s. Now? It happens in milliseconds—but traders still struggle to wait a few hours for the right setup.
💡 The Lesson?
Patience has always been a trader’s best tool. Some things never change.
BILI Projects to $100Bilibili Inc. is a leading provider of online entertainment tailored for the youth of the People's Republic of China. The company boasts a diverse array of digital offerings, including professionally produced user-generated videos, mobile gaming experiences, and enhanced services like live streaming, occupationally created videos, audio dramas on Maoer, and comics available through Bilibili Comic. Additionally, Bilibili offers advertising solutions, IP derivatives, and various other services. The company is also involved in business and technology development, e-commerce, and the distribution of videos, comics, and games. Established in 2009, Bilibili Inc. is based in Shanghai, China.
Bilibili is currently priced at $20.81, indicating it may be undervalued according to discounted cash flow analysis, which suggests a fair value of $28.84. Although there has been notable insider selling recently, the stock remains 28% below its estimated fair value and is projected to achieve profitability within the next three years, surpassing average market growth rates. While the anticipated revenue growth of 10.2% per year is not as robust as one might hope, it still outpaces the overall US market's growth rate of 8.9%.
NVIDIA Rejected on the most important Resistance of all.Last time we looked at NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) was just 20 days ago (January 29, see chart below) but we managed to get the exact bottom buy opportunity on the 1W MA50:
As the stock reacted with an immediate and relentless rally of 10 straight green 1D candles, it hit yesterday its first hurdle, the All Time High (ATH) Lower Highs trend-line and closed in red.
This Lower Highs trend-line is historically very important as every time a similar technical structure broke in the past 2 years, a strong rally followed. The early ones were stronger, which is natural to expect as the company was recovering from the 2022 Inflation Crisis and had enormous room to grow. On a side-note, the 1D RSI rebounded on its 34.00 Support, where the stock's last two bottoms were priced.
As a result, we believe that if NVIDIA breaks and closes above the current Lower Highs trend-line, it should at least repeat the last rally from its bottom (+68.69%), which translates to a $190 medium-term Target.
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Alibaba Shares (BABA) Hit 12-Month High Ahead of Earnings ReportAlibaba Shares (BABA) Hit 12-Month High Ahead of Earnings Report
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is set to release its quarterly earnings report on 20 February. The Wall Street Journal cites optimistic analyst estimates, projecting gross revenue of 279.03 billion yuan (approximately $38 billion), up from 260.35 billion yuan a year ago and 236.50 billion yuan in the previous quarter.
Investor sentiment has been buoyed by Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma’s presence at an event with Chinese President Xi Jinping. According to Barron’s, this signals government efforts to restore confidence in the private sector, particularly in technology. At present, such factors may be having a greater impact on the stock market than geopolitical headlines or Trump’s tariff policies.
These and other drivers—including a recent partnership between Alibaba and Apple to integrate AI features into the iPhone 16 series—have fuelled bullish momentum. As a result, Alibaba shares (BABA) have surged nearly 20% in February, reaching their highest level since February last year.
Technical Analysis of Alibaba Shares (BABA)
In our previous analysis on 29 January, we noted that BABA’s price movements were forming key levels for an Andrews' Pitchfork pattern, indicating a bullish outlook.
Currently, the price has:
→ Surpassed the October high near $118.
→ Gained bullish momentum after consolidating around the psychological $100 level.
The RSI indicator signals overbought conditions, suggesting a potential correction. However, given the strong news flow, any pullback may be shallow.
Alibaba (BABA) Stock Forecasts
According to BarChart, after years of underperformance, many investors are looking at China with renewed optimism for 2025. Hedge fund Appaloosa Management’s founder and president, David Tepper—whose net worth stands at $21.5 billion—recently acquired Alibaba shares, as per the latest 13F filings.
He may believe that the Chinese stock market is significantly undervalued, based on the “Warren Buffett Indicator,” which compares a country's total market capitalisation to its GDP. A ratio below 100 suggests undervaluation, while a higher figure indicates overvaluation. Currently, China’s market cap-to-GDP ratio stands below 70%, compared to over 200% for the US.
Tepper is not alone in his bullish stance. According to TipRanks:
→ 7 out of 8 analysts surveyed recommend buying BABA shares.
→ The average 12-month price target for BABA is $129.13.
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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.19.2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸🗣️ President Trump's Address: At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, February 18, President Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech that may provide insights into upcoming policy directions.
📱🍏 Apple Product Launch: Apple CEO Tim Cook has announced a new product launch set for February 19, 2025. Speculations suggest it could be the iPhone SE 4, featuring a 6.1-inch OLED display and an A18 chip with Apple Intelligence.
📊 Key Data Releases:
🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 1.390M; Previous: 1.499M.
📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis