$42 TARGET $RXRX BUY NOW!The triple bottom chart pattern usually emerges after an extended downtrend with bears dominating the market. While the first bottom might reflect regular price fluctuations, the second bottom signals that the bulls are gathering strength and gearing up for a potential reversal. The third bottom demonstrates robust support, suggesting that bears may surrender when the price surpasses resistance levels.
ALSO: Investing in Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) offers intriguing possibilities for several reasons:
Innovative Technology: NASDAQ:RXRX utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to expedite drug discovery. Their BioHive-2 supercomputer, powered by Nvidia AI chips, is among the most powerful accelerated computing systems globally.
Partnerships: NASDAQ:RXRX has formed alliances with major tech and healthcare leaders, including Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), which invested $50 million into its operations. These collaborations aim to streamline drug discovery, making it faster and more cost-effective.
Promising Pipeline: NASDAQ:RXRX boasts a strong lineup of drug candidates, and their technology has already shown promising results. Their merger with Exscientia, another biotech company focused on AI-driven drug discovery, has created a more robust, vertically integrated platform.
Potential for High Returns: While investing in NASDAQ:RXRX involves risks, it also holds the potential for significant returns. The company's innovative approach could transform the healthcare industry, making it a potential "10-bagger" (a stock that increases tenfold in value).
Long-term Vision: RXRX seeks to shorten the drug discovery process from years to months and significantly reduce costs. This long-term vision could lead to substantial growth if successful.
Stocks
SMCI: Rejection on the 1W MA50 will be the last buy opportunity.Super Micro Computer has turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 76.279, MACD = 3.600, ADX = 40.488) as a result of the relentless rally of the past 2 weeks but on 1W (RSI = 57.515) it just turned bullish, which is indicative of the long way it has to cover until it makes new ATH again following last year's accounting discrepancies. The price is about to test the 1W MA50 as a Resistance, which under normal circumastances of Bull Cycle, it is a support. A potential rejection there, should provide the last buy opportunity that will test the 1D MA50 as a Support. We remain long on SMCI, next TP = 95.00.
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Nvidia - The +50% Rally Is Inevitable!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is about to create a false breakdown:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After the -12% drop on Nvidia last month, Nvidia actually broke the final support trendline towards the downside. However bulls are about to break it again towards the upside, which would confirm the false bearish breakdown, leading to a short squeeze rally of about +50%.
Levels to watch: $140, $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Tripled power mover in 2 hours with 3 Buy spots along the way!Power 💪 $3.05 to $9.40 in under 2 hours reaching over +200% 🚀 NASDAQ:GCL
Wanted to buy at $5 but volume wasn't safe enough, it pops and sets up for another good entry, wanted to buy $6.21 but it moved beyond it, kept waiting for a dip buy around $6.20 but all it gave was $6.50 several times so had 2 buy orders placed at the same time one for $6.21 on the possible dip and one for $7.31 for the possible breakout.
It triggered $7.31 and kept going, all 15min candlesticks green so I kept alerting new buys for the big fat win!
A Bearish Case for Diageo: Breaking Critical Support LevelsThe descending triangle pattern on Diageo’s weekly chart presents a strong bearish signal, suggesting that the stock may be poised for a deeper decline. Historically, descending triangles indicate mounting selling pressure, and with price action nearing critical support levels, the risk of a breakdown is significantly high.
Currently, Diageo is approaching key lows last seen in 2020, around 2050, a level that previously acted as a strong support zone. However, the confluence of technical factors suggests this support may not hold:
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement Confluence – Just below 2050, the 2026 level aligns with a key long-term Fibonacci retracement. While this could act as a temporary support zone, the broader technical setup suggests further weakness.
2️⃣ The Psychological 2000 Level – Round numbers often serve as psychological barriers in the market, but with a descending triangle breakdown, this level may fail to provide meaningful support.
3️⃣ Measured Move Target: 1875 – When analysing the height of the descending triangle pattern, its projected move suggests a breakdown well beyond the above-mentioned support levels. A clean breach of 2050 could see a swift move lower, with 1885 emerging as the next major target.
With the weight of these technical indicators aligning, the path of least resistance appears to be downward. Unless Diageo finds an unexpected catalyst for recovery, breaking these key levels could trigger further selling momentum, forcing the stock into deeper correction territory. Traders and investors should approach this setup with caution, as the evidence strongly favours a bearish continuation. 🚨📉
N.B. Understanding the Descending Triangle Pattern
A descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern that forms when the price action is characterized by a series of lower highs converging towards a horizontal support level. This pattern signals increasing selling pressure, as buyers fail to push prices higher while sellers continuously drive prices downward.
Key Features of a Descending Triangle
1️⃣ Horizontal Support Line – The price consistently finds support at a particular level, creating a flat base.
2️⃣ Lower Highs – Price fails to reach previous highs, forming a descending trendline.
3️⃣ Breakout Expectation – A descending triangle typically breaks downward once sellers overwhelm buyers at the support level.
4️⃣ Volume Decline & Expansion – Volume usually declines as the pattern develops and increases significantly at the breakout.
________________________________________
How to Measure the Descending Triangle
To predict a potential price target, traders measure the height of the triangle and project it downward from the breakout point.
✅ Step 1: Identify the Pattern
• Find the flat support level where price repeatedly bounces.
• Draw a descending trendline connecting the lower highs.
✅ Step 2: Measure the Height
• Take the distance from the highest point of the triangle (initial peak before lower highs start forming) to the horizontal support level.
• Example: If the high of the triangle is 2675 and the support level is 2275, the height is 400 points.
✅ Step 3: Project the Breakdown Target
• Once price breaks below the support level, subtract the measured height from the breakdown point.
• Example: If the breakdown occurs at 2275, then:
o 2275 - 400 = 1875 (expected price target).
________________________________________
Confirming the Breakout
📉 Bearish Confirmation:
• A daily or weekly close below support, ideally with an increase in volume.
• Retests of the broken support level that now act as resistance.
⚠️ False Breakouts:
• Sometimes, price may briefly dip below support and reverse higher.
• Confirmation is key before entering trades based on the descending triangle pattern.
________________________________________
Final Thoughts
A descending triangle is a powerful bearish signal, particularly when seen in downtrends. Traders use it to identify potential breakdown opportunities and set realistic price targets. Risk management is crucial, as false breakouts can occur, and waiting for confirmation increases the probability of a successful trade.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Overtrading Chaos: Classroom Insights & Quick FixesWatching my students get caught up in the whirlwind of overtrading was like watching a rollercoaster ride gone wrong - all that excitement turned into stress, quick decisions based on gut feelings rather than strategy, and seeing their accounts shrink before my eyes. Here's what I've noticed firsthand:
-Emotion Over Logic: They were making choices fueled by the fear of missing out or trying to get back at the market after a loss, not because it was the smart move. Spot on. Emotional trading is the quickest path to financial ruin. It's all about managing those emotions.
-Exhaustion: The constant screen time was draining them, both physically and mentally. This is why I always preach about the importance of having a life outside of trading. Burnout is real and it clouds judgment.
-Costly Habits: Those small fees and spreads started adding up, eating away at their profits with each impulsive trade. Always remember, every trade has a cost. Overtrading is like death by a thousand cuts.
But here’s the good news - I've got some immediate steps I take to turn things around:
1)Trade Log Love: I get them to write down every trade, focusing on the reasons behind their decisions. It’s amazing how this simple act helps them learn from their actions. A trade log isn't just about accountability; it's about education. Every trade is a lesson.
2)Take a Breather: I enforce a little break after each trade. It's like hitting the reset button for your brain, ensuring the next trade isn't just a reaction to the last. This is critical. It’s about breaking the cycle of reactive trading. Think of it as forced discipline.
3)Quality Time: I shift the focus to waiting for those golden opportunities, teaching them that sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make. Patience in trading is not just a virtue; it's a strategy. The markets reward those who wait for the right moment.
Come join me as I navigate through the overtrading storm, helping my students, and maybe you too, become more thoughtful, strategic traders! This is what I call practical wisdom. Overtrading is a symptom of not having a solid plan. I'd recommend this course of action to any trader looking to turn their habits around.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
HEDERA’S Q4 2024—$HBAR SURGES ON CHAIN GROWTH & ETF RUMORSHEDERA’S Q4 2024— CRYPTOCAP:HBAR SURGES ON CHAIN GROWTH & ETF RUMORS
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview! Hedera’s Q4 2024 is blazing—chain GDP hit $840M, up 213% QoQ 📈🔥. Meme coins and dApps drove the surge, with CRYPTOCAP:HBAR up 30% overnight. Let’s unpack this blockchain beast! 🚀
(2/9) – NETWORK PERFORMANCE
• Q4 Chain GDP: $840M, +213% QoQ 💥
• TVL: $8.6B, DEX Volume: $3.3B/day (+150%)
• Stablecoin Volume: $5.1B/day (+36%)
• Jan ‘25: $517M app revenue, $552M econ value
Hedera’s humming—10k TPS at $0.0001 fees!
(3/9) – BIG MOVES
• Q3 Asset Tokenization Studio: Enterprise appeal soars 🏦
• Feb 9 X Buzz: HBAR ETF rumors, NVIDIA/Intel AI chip embeds 🌍
• Coinbase HBAR Futures: Drops today, Feb 18! 🚗
Speculation and scale are lighting up $HBAR!
(4/9) – SECTOR CHECK
• Market Cap: $11.61B (Jan ‘25), Now $0.39-$0.40 🌟
• Vs. L1s: ETH ($400B), SOL ($88.6B), ADA ( FWB:20B )
• Outpaces in speed/cost, 53% of global L1 fees Dec ‘24
Undervalued sleeper vs. giants? X thinks so!
(5/9) – RISKS TO FLAG
• Volatility: Feb 8 drop hints manipulation 📉
• Regs: ETF hype could flop if SEC stalls ⚠️
• Competition: SOL’s Firedancer, ETH scaling loom 🏛️
• Meme Coin Fade: Speculative juice may dry up
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Speed: 10k TPS, $0.0001 fees slay 🌟
• Q4 Stats: $840M GDP, $8.6B TVL 🔍
• Enterprise Edge: Nairobi Stock Exchange, SpaceX 🚦
Hedera’s a lean, mean blockchain machine!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Meme coin reliance, smaller dApp pool 💸
• Opportunities: ETF approval, NVIDIA/Intel deals, DeFi push 🌍
Can CRYPTOCAP:HBAR turn hype into lasting heat?
(8/9) – CRYPTOCAP:HBAR ’s Q4 fire—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—ETF & tech blast it up.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth holds, risks bite.
3️⃣ Bearish—Speculation fizzles out.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Hedera’s Q4 shines—$840M GDP, ETF buzz, and tech leaps fuel CRYPTOCAP:HBAR ’s charge 🌍. Cheap vs. L1s, but volatility lurks. Gem or trap?
$KBE’S BANKING BOOM—Q4 STRENGTH & POST-ELECTION SURGEAMEX:KBE ’S BANKING BOOM—Q4 STRENGTH & POST-ELECTION SURGE
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview! AMEX:KBE ’s riding high—up 8.3% since the Nov ‘24 election, beating AMEX:SPY ’s 3.3% 📈🔥. Banks are cashing in on trading and dealmaking post-election. Let’s dive into the AMEX:KBE rally! 🚀
(2/9) – PERFORMANCE & REVENUE
• Post-Election Gain: +8.3% vs. AMEX:SPY +3.3% 💥
• Q4 Revenue Growth: Holdings ( NYSE:GS , NYSE:JPM , NYSE:BAC ) up 5-10% YoY
• Sector EPS Est.: +7-8% for Q4 2024
Fixed income trading and investment banking are fueling the fire!
(3/9) – BIG EVENTS
• Pro-Business Vibes: Deregulation hopes lift sentiment 🏛️
• M&A/IPO Surge: Banks thriving in deal flow 📊
• NYSE:GS Q4 Est.: GPW:11B + revenue, +5-7% YoY 🚗
X posts buzz about a banking renaissance!
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• AMEX:KBE : +8.3% vs. AMEX:XLF +6%, AMEX:IWM +5.4% 🌍
• Forward P/E: ~10x ( AMEX:KBE ) vs. 12x ( AMEX:XLF ), 20x ( AMEX:SPY )
• P/B: 1.2x vs. AMEX:XLF ’s 1.5x
Undervalued vs. peers, but banking focus shines!
(5/9) – RISKS TO WATCH
• Rates: Rising costs could pinch margins 📉
• Trade Policy: Tariffs might slow deals ⚠️
• Loan Demand: Weakness or credit dips a threat 🏦
• Sentiment: Undervaluation lingers—earnings key!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Trading Power: FICC up 10% in Q4 🌟
• Dealmaking: Top banks lead M&A/IPO surge 🔍
• Low Cost: 0.35% expense ratio beats most 🚦
AMEX:KBE ’s got muscle in the banking game!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Cyclical reliance, bank-only focus 💸
• Opportunities: Deregulation, 10-15% earnings pop in ‘25 🌍
Can AMEX:KBE cash in on policy and growth?
(8/9) – AMEX:KBE ’s Q4 strength—where’s it going?
1️⃣ Bullish—Banks keep soaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth holds, risks balance.
3️⃣ Bearish—Rate woes hit hard.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
AMEX:KBE ’s Q4 glows—trading and deals lift banks high 🌍. Cheap at 10x P/E, but risks lurk. Undervalued gem or cyclical trap?
TESLA SWING LONG IDEA - TSLA We had a great run on Tesla after Trump's election, which boosted the idea of Robotaxi and green earnings over time.
If you follow me on X, you would know that I have been buying Tesla since the $204 level (August 5th crash). We had a great run from there to $490.
Currently, we have seen a 33% retracement from the top.
The price hit the weekly demand zone and showed a strong rejection there (forming a weekly dragonfly doji).
I have started to build a swing position from this level to ride Tesla to new all-time highs.
The first challenge will be the bearish trendline that has been driving the bearish trend since December 18th. Breaking that trendline should lead to new highs, in my opinion.
If the price breaks and closes below $300 on the daily chart, it will invalidate my setup, and I will look to exit the position.
ROBINHOOD’S Q4 2024—TRADING BOOM FUELS RECORD GAINSROBINHOOD’S Q4 2024—TRADING BOOM FUELS RECORD GAINS NASDAQ:HOOD
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview! Robinhood’s Q4 2024 earnings are out 📈🔥—$1.01B in revenue, up 115% YoY, smashing $945M estimates. Post-election trading frenzy in equities and crypto lit the fuse. Let’s break down HOOD’s monster quarter! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
• Q4 Revenue: $1.01B, +115% YoY 💥
• Q3 Recap: $637M, +36% YoY
• Q4 EPS: $1.01, beats $0.43 est. 📊
• Net Income: $916M, up 510% from Q3’s $150M
• ARPU: $164, +102% YoY
Record profits, driven by a trading surge!
(3/9) – KEY WINS
• Net Deposits: $16.1B, +42% QoQ 🌍
• New Tools: Index options, futures, Robinhood Legend launched late 2024 🚗
• SEC Settlement: $45M in Jan 2025 clears past compliance woes ✅
HOOD’s expanding fast and cleaning house!
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: $56.4B, Stock: $65.28 🌟
• Trailing P/E: 40.9x vs. IBKR (50x), SCHW (20x)
• Revenue Growth: 115% YoY crushes sector avg (5.7%)
Outpaces peers in growth, but valuation’s a hot debate!
(5/9) – RISKS ON DECK
• Market Volatility: Trading boom could fade 📉
• Regs: $45M SEC hit flags ongoing scrutiny 🏛️
• Competition: Schwab, Coinbase closing in ⚔️
• Economy: $1.21T credit card debt, layoffs loom ⚠️
Big gains, big risks—tightrope ahead!
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Revenue: 115% YoY, $916M profit shines 🌟
• User Loyalty: $16.1B deposits, 2.2M+ Gold subs 🔍
• Innovation: Futures, options expand the game 🚦
HOOD’s firing on all cylinders!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Trading reliance, reg baggage 💸
• Opportunities: Futures growth, crypto-friendly regs, global push 🌍
Can NASDAQ:HOOD turn momentum into a dynasty?
(8/9) – HOOD’s Q4 is a banger—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—Growth keeps roaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Solid, but risks loom.
3️⃣ Bearish—Peak’s in, fade coming.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Robinhood’s Q4 is a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B thunderclap—trading, deposits, and profits soar 🌍. But volatility and regs lurk. Undervalued or overhyped?
BAIDU’S Q4 2024 Earnings drop today Review Q3BAIDU’S Q3 2024 PERFORMANCE—AI GROWTH VS. AD WOES
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview Fam! Baidu’s latest financials are 📈🔍. Q3 2024 revenue hit ¥33.6B ($4.7B USD), but the story’s in the details: AI’s soaring, ads are slipping. Let’s dive into BIDU’s numbers and outlook! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS SNAPSHOT
• Total Revenue: ¥33.6B ($4.7B USD)
• Baidu Core: ¥26.5B ($3.7B USD), +4% YoY 💥
• Cloud Revenue: Strong growth (exact figures vary) ☁️
• Q3 EPS: ¥19.2 ($2.67 USD), missed ¥19.62 est.
• Non-GAAP Net Income: ¥7.6B (~$1.06B USD)
Next up: Feb 18 earnings, est. $1.78 EPS, $4.56B revenue (-7.4% YoY).
(3/9) – BIG MOVES IN AI & AUTONOMOUS TECH
• Baidu World 2024: Unveiled iRAG & Miaoda AI tools 🤖
• ERNIE API: 1.5B daily calls, up 30x YoY 📈
• Lidar Deal: $200-300M with Hesai for Yichi 06 robotaxis 🚗
AI and autonomy are stealing the show—growth engines revving up!
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: $31.36B (Feb 2025) 🌍
• Trailing P/E: 10.56x, Forward P/E: 10.5x—cheap vs. Alphabet or Tencent 📊
• Lags GOOG in search/ad scale but leads Chinese peers (JD, PDD) in AI diversification
At 3x EV/EBITDA, is BIDU undervalued? X posts think so!
(5/9) – RISKS ON THE RADAR
• Ad revenue: Squeezed by Tencent, ByteDance competition 📉
• AI costs: Big R&D spend, profits TBD 🤔
• China regs: Unpredictable hurdles loom 🏛️
• Economy: Slowdown could hit ad & cloud growth
• U.S.-China tension: Weighs on sentiment ⚠️
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• King of China’s search market, mobile ecosystem thriving 🔍
• ERNIE Bot: 430M users, 770k enterprise apps 🌟
• Apollo Go: Leading autonomous driving, $162.6B robotaxi market by 2025 🚦
Baidu’s got serious firepower!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Ad margins shrinking, AI not yet cashing in 💸
• Opportunities: AI cloud expansion, robotaxi scale-up, China stimulus upside 🌍
Can Baidu turn its tech bets into gold? Time will tell!
(8/9) – What’s BIDU’s 2025 vibe?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI and autonomy will drive a breakout.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth potential, but risks balance it out.
3️⃣ Bearish—Ads and regs will drag it down.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Baidu’s Q3 shows a tale of two trends: AI and autonomy surging, ads under pressure 🌍. With a low valuation and big tech bets, BIDU’s at a crossroads. Will innovation outpace the risks? Earnings drop today—stay tuned for the next chapter! 💪
Is NASDAQ Losing Steam? A Reality Check for TradersHey Realistic Traders, Is CAPITALCOM:US100 Out of Steam? Let’s Dive Into the Analysis…
On the daily timeframe, the Nasdaq remains above the EMA-100, which has served as strong support through multiple successful rebounds. Simultaneously, the price has moved above the bullish trendline, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend.
Within wave 4, the price formed a falling wedge pattern, followed by a breakout. This signals the initiation of wave 5, which could potentially extend beyond the length of wave 1, given that wave 3 did not exceed the 1.618 Fibonacci ratio. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has already formed a bullish crossover, adding further confirmation of a positive outlook for the Nasdaq.
Considering these strong technical signals, the price is likely to move upward toward the first target at 23,538 , or potentially the second target at 24,356.
However, this bullish scenario depends on the price staying above the critical stop-loss level at 20,833.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Nasdaq."
USNAS100 | Breakout Confirmed! Will ATH Hold or Push Higher?📊 NASDAQ 100 (USNAS100) – Technical Analysis (4H Chart)
🔹 Market Overview:
The price has broken the key resistance zone and stabilized above it, confirming bullish momentum. The bullish volume pushed the price up quickly to reach ATH at 22,100 before facing some resistance.
🔹 Current Price Action:
A correction toward 21,900 is likely before another push higher.
As long as price trades above 21,900 and 21,807, the market remains bullish and can target 22,292 next.
🔥 Potential Bullish Scenario:
✅ As long as price holds above 21,900 - 21,807 → bullish continuation expected!
📌 Targets:
📍 22,100 (ATH Retest)
📍 22,292 (Key Resistance Target)
📍 22,412 (Major Resistance Level & Channel Top)
⚠️ Potential Bearish Scenario:
❌ A 4H close below 21,807 would signal a short-term pullback.
📌 Support Targets:
📍 21,900 (first support zone)
📍 21,807 (critical pivot area, potential bounce zone)
🔑 Key Levels:
📍 Pivot Zone: 21,900 - 21,807
📍 Resistance: 22,100 | 22,292 | 22,412
📍 Support: 21,900 | 21,807 | 21,570
📌 Conclusion:
✅ Bullish bias remains intact while price holds above 21,900.
🚀 Break above 22,100 = new bullish leg toward 22,292+.
⚠️ Failure to hold 21,807 could lead to a drop toward 21,570.
💬 Do you think we break 22,100 or correct first? Drop your thoughts below! 👇👇
Weekly Market Outlook: February 18 – 21, 2025🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs Implementation: President Donald Trump has signed executive orders imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These tariffs are set to take effect on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
🇷🇺🇺🇸 Diplomatic Talks: Senior U.S. and Russian officials are scheduled to meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on February 18 to discuss the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and explore potential resolutions.
🇩🇪🗳️ German Snap Election: Germany is set to hold a snap election this week, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) expected to perform well, potentially influencing European markets.
📊 Key Data Releases:
Tuesday, Feb 18:
🇺🇸🏭 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Measures manufacturing activity in New York State.
🇺🇸🗣️ U.S. President Trump Speech (3:00 PM ET): Insights into potential policy directions and economic outlook.
Wednesday, Feb 19:
🇺🇸🏠 Housing Starts (8:30 AM ET): Data on new residential construction projects.
🇺🇸📄 FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM ET): Detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's policy discussions from the January meeting.
Thursday, Feb 20:
🇺🇸📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Weekly data on unemployment claims.
🇺🇸🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Indicator of manufacturing sector health in the Philadelphia region.
Friday, Feb 21:
🇺🇸🏭 S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET): Preliminary data on manufacturing sector performance.
🇺🇸🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET): Reports on the number of previously owned homes sold.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nvidia = 4T Market CapNASDAQ:NVDA : Largest Market Cap in the World?!
4 Trillion Market Cap Inbound 🎯
Ever since Nvidia flipped to green on the H5 indicator we have come back to retest it 5 times. In which we bounced and then rallied hard!
Support created and NASDAQ:NVDA is breaking out!
Not financial advice
$AMD (ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES) – DATA CENTER DOMINANCE & AI AMD (ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES) – DATA CENTER DOMINANCE & AI POTENTIAL
(1/7)
Q4 2024 Revenue landed between $7.65B–$7.7B, beating estimates (~$7.53B). That’s a year-over-year jump fueled by Data Center sales skyrocketing +69% to $3.9B—now over half of AMD’s total revenue! Let’s dive in. 🚀
(2/7) – EARNINGS BEAT
• Q4 2024 EPS: ~$1.09 (a hair above consensus $1.08–$1.09)
• Operating cash flow up +240% YoY—huge liquidity boost 💰
• Despite the beats, stock dipped -2% post-earnings—profit-taking or a sign of sky-high expectations? 🤔
(3/7) – GUIDANCE & MOMENTUM
• Q1 2025 sales guidance: $7.1B (~above $7.0B estimates)
• Indicates continued growth, with AMD’s pivot to AI & data center paying off 💡
• Investors weigh: Are expectations now too lofty?
(4/7) – SECTOR COMPARISON
• AMD’s data center surge outpaces Intel in growth & profitability
• Trails NVIDIA in AI infrastructure domination, but could be undervalued if the market’s underestimating AMD’s AI diversification potential ⚙️
• Future gains might hinge on capturing more hyperscaler demand 🔗
(5/7) – RISK FACTORS
• NVIDIA: Still the top AI chip supplier—AMD must fight for share
• Semiconductors are cyclical: macro downturn = potential demand drop 📉
• TSMC reliance → supply chain or geopolitical hiccups
• The -2% stock drop post-earnings suggests the bar is set high
(6/7) – SWOT HIGHLIGHTS
Strengths:
Data Center revenue up 69% → half of total rev 🌐
Diversified portfolio, not just PC chips
Strong cash flow fueling R&D
Weaknesses:
Lags NVIDIA in AI adoption
Post-earnings stock dip hints at market skepticism
Opportunities:
AI expansions beyond GPU domination
Partnerships / acquisitions → deeper AI capabilities 🤖
Emerging markets (auto, IoT, etc.) for chip technology
Threats:
Fierce competition (NVIDIA, Intel)
Economic slowdowns
Regulatory or supply chain bumps ⚠️
(7/7) – Is AMD a prime AI contender or overshadowed by NVIDIA?
1️⃣ Bullish—Data center momentum will fuel AI growth 🚀
2️⃣ Neutral—Solid performance, but needs bigger AI share 🤔
3️⃣ Bearish—NVIDIA leads, AMD can’t catch up 🐻
Vote below! 🗳️👇
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge 13%Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Shares Surge 13%
The Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) stock chart shows:
→ Friday’s closing price rose over 13% from Thursday’s close;
→ The stock has surged more than 80% from its February low;
→ Friday’s close marked the highest level since late October 2024.
SMCI’s rally comes despite an 11 February quarterly report that missed expectations:
→ EPS: $0.59 vs. expected $0.60;
→ Revenue: $5.65bn vs. expected $5.72bn.
Bullish sentiment is driven by (according to media reports):
→ A forecasted $40bn revenue for FY2026, 70% higher than projected FY2025 revenue;
→ Reports indicate that SMCI shares are unlikely to be delisted from NASDAQ due to financial reporting issues (which we previously discussed when analysing the SMCI stock chart on 3 December);
→ Investor enthusiasm for AI and rapid data centre construction to support it.
Technical Analysis of SMCI Stock
The price has reached the key psychological level of $50 per share:
→ Historical price action at this level has often triggered significant reversals;
→ A bullish cup-and-handle pattern is forming.
A higher second low suggests growing demand strength, potentially leading to a bullish breakout above $50.
SMCI Stock Price Forecast
Analysts remain cautious. According to Yahoo Finance:
→ Only 2 of 6 analysts recommend buying SMCI shares;
→ The 12-month average price target is $47.91.
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AppLovin (APP) AnalysisCompany Overview:
AppLovin NASDAQ:APP is a mobile marketing leader, providing developers with tools for user acquisition, ad optimization, and analytics. The company also benefits from its owned apps, such as Monopoly GO!, which contribute 30% of its revenue.
Key Catalysts:
AI-Driven Revenue Expansion 🤖
AI plays a pivotal role in AppLovin’s success, driving 80% of its revenue growth. This AI advantage helps optimize user engagement and ad targeting, boosting overall platform efficiency.
Mobile Gaming Growth 🎮
The mobile gaming industry is projected to grow at an 8% annual rate through 2027, positioning AppLovin to benefit as a key player in game monetization and marketing solutions.
E-Commerce Ad Expansion 🛒
AppLovin’s new e-commerce ad pilot could generate FWB:30M -$50M in Q4 2024, with a self-service platform launch in mid-2025 targeting the $200B+ global e-commerce ad market.
Analyst Confidence 📊
Oppenheimer has reiterated its Outperform rating, with a $480 price target, citing AppLovin’s earnings potential, robust ad revenue streams, and growing monetization avenues.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on APP above the $380.00-$400.00 range, supported by AI adoption, ad growth, and entry into e-commerce advertising.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $650.00-$670.00, reflecting AppLovin’s potential to expand its revenue base across multiple high-growth sectors.
📢 AppLovin—Driving Innovation in Mobile Advertising and Game Monetization. #AppMarketing #AI #MobileGaming
Why Hermès’ margins shame the competitionThis analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
You know my favourite stocks are luxury stocks, and they’ve had a hard last year. Richemont and Moncler were the clear standouts from the most recent season (both grew sales), while Brunello did well too. Obviously, Kering did not do well. Here’s Hermes, which pretty much smashed everyone out of the park:
Revenue amounted to €15.2 billion
(+15% at constant exchange rates and +13% at current exchange rates)
Recurring operating income reached €6.2 billion, representing 40.5% of sales
Adjusted free cash flow amounted to €3.8 billion, up by 18%
Can we take a step back and please admire what smashing results those are — that’s a luxury business which does not cut corners operating on a 40.5% margin, with a free cash flow stream that is unheard of for the luxury industry. Let’s also consider that this is during what is nominally a recession.
Worth thinking about what makes Hermes special:
A hatred of meetings, corporate hogwash, and the associated.
They compete only with themselves — not others .
Human values. Hermes objects are made by people and bought by people . Corporate hogwash tends to see people as numbers, and then corporate hogwash forgets about the importance of psychology.
A fanatical obsession with product — product is the message.
No marketing team.
If your product is good enough, and the story you communicate is good enough, the people will come. The same can be said of Brunello, which I have always said is like a “mini-Hermes” — people buy Brunello for quality and the ethos it communicates. Worth re-reading Brunello’s daily routine, which does not look like the nonsense ice bath CEOs who you see on Instagram:
US100 - Strong uptrend will probably continueThe Nasdaq 100 has demonstrated remarkable strength in its recent uptrend, pushing to new highs above 22,100. However, the current price action suggests the market may be slightly overextended in the short term, making a pullback to the marked support zone around 21,800-21,900 a potential opportunity for more favorable entry points.
Given the overall bullish market structure and momentum, any retracements should be viewed as buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. The upward trajectory remains intact, with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that after a healthy pullback, the index could continue its ascent toward new highs above 22,300. Traders should watch for price action confirmation and potential bullish setups around the marked support level.