Apple respite before sell offApple bounced straight of major support at circa $170, with the SMI now also rising we could see a few weeks of short term respite before continuing down to test the major support line again. Also notice a backtest of the rising trend at around 21%.
Long term view is still bearish, don't think we've seen the yearly bottoms yet. Will be interesting to see how this plays out especially with bonds.
Stocks
AMD: Best level to buy since Oct 2022.Advanced Micro Devices are virtually oversold on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 30.639, MACD = -13.430, ADX = 36.312) having hit the bottom (HL) of the 3 year Channel Up. The 1W RSI is slightly even lower it was on the previous bottom of October 10th 2022. This should be the start of the new long term bullish wave, which based on the previous one should make a HH on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, approximately a +300% rally (TP = 280.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Where is the support level for Nasdaq?! Is the bloodbath over?Bearish fair value gap ranges are taking over this chart and when we rally up into them, they have been sending us down over and over.
This week we have had the advantage of a bearish gap from last week's low. This gave us clear reason to seek longs to fill the gap. Now we have a small cushion of long interest in this range after retesting the 2023 yearly candle's broken high.
As long as we remain above this yearly level--16.960ish (Using last year's low for NQ 17,570ish)-- we will see a neat consolidation and sitting upon these levels before the rally that may lead us out of this range.
That is what I expect, however, if we lose these levels, you already know we are headed to the dungeon of a true recession.
20 min breakdown:
NVIDIA Update 3 Rangebound with new Low for longsIn this video I bring to your attention what we could possibly expect if we lose the current level and if we do then where is the next crucial zone to look for Longs.
If you have read this then pls do Boost my work and any questions then leave them below
Trump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds SharplyTrump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds Sharply
As shown in the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index is currently trading near the 5,500 level.
This result is highly encouraging, considering that as recently as yesterday morning, the index was hovering around 4,900.
Why Have Stocks Risen?
The strong rebound seen yesterday evening was triggered by a statement from the US President — he announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of wide-ranging global trade tariffs, which had originally been unveiled on 2 April and led to a sharp drop in the index (as indicated by the arrow).
However, this does not apply to China, for which tariffs were not delayed but increased. "Due to the lack of respect China has shown towards global markets, I am raising the tariff imposed on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately," said Donald Trump, according to media reports.
Overall, US stock markets responded positively to the news, and Goldman Sachs economists have withdrawn their US recession forecasts.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
Despite yesterday’s sharp rebound, the stock market remains in a downtrend (as indicated by the red channel).
From a bullish perspective:
→ A Double Bottom pattern (A–B) has formed around the 4,900 level;
→ Price has moved into the upper half of the channel.
From a bearish perspective:
→ Bulls must overcome key resistance near the psychological 5,000 level;
→ While tariffs have been delayed, they have not been cancelled. As such, the risk of an escalating trade war is likely to continue putting pressure on the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in the coming months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Price Played Out Exactly As Predicted — Jan 14 Setup RevisitedOn January 14, I shared this precise setup here on TradingView. At the time, it didn’t get much attention—but I trusted the analysis.
Today, price played out exactly as projected. Every level respected. Every zone reacted to. This isn’t hindsight—this is foresight, documented and time-stamped.
Key Notes:
• Clean market structure
• Precise liquidity sweep and shift
• Institutional confluence at premium/discount zones
• Patience + precision = result
I’m sharing this not to say “I was right”—but to highlight what’s possible with disciplined analysis. If you’re serious about trading or just want to see how I break down charts in real-time, feel free to drop a follow.
Let the chart speak
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 10, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariff Pause and Increased Tariffs on China: President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most trading partners but increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. This move led to a surge in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 rising by 9.5% and the Dow Jones by 7.9%.
🇨🇳📈 China's Retaliatory Tariffs: In response, China imposed additional tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods, escalating trade tensions and impacting global markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, April 10:
📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.1%
Previous: 0.2%
Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, indicating inflation trends.
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 219,000
Previous: 225,000
Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions.
🗣️ Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Testifies to Senate (10:00 AM ET):
Provides insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on economic conditions and monetary policy.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Tesla Taps the Golden Zone – Is the Launch Sequence Engaged?Tesla (TSLA) has shown textbook precision by respecting the golden zone after a significant sweep of previous highs. Rather than violating the last HTF low—which would’ve hinted at deeper downside—price instead retraced cleanly into the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) range and reacted with strong bullish intent.
This move indicates a healthy retracement rather than weakness, suggesting a continuation to the upside. Confirmation of this potential bullish leg would be a sustained close above the 272–300 level, which aligns with previous buyside liquidity zones and Fibonacci confluence.
Key Observations:
- Golden Zone respected: Price bounced cleanly between the 62–79% fib levels.
- HTF low protected: No violation of higher timeframe bullish structure.
- Volume spike supports the reversal move.
Targets:
- Short-term: 300.61
- Mid-term: 416.67
- Long-term swing: 861.17 (over 255% potential gain)
Conclusion:
Tesla looks set for lift-off 🚀. The reaction at the golden zone and the preservation of structure give high confluence for a potential explosive move higher. Wait for confirmation via price continuation and structure integrity.
As always — DYOR (Do Your Own Research).
Quantum's HIMS Trading Guide 4/10/25 HIMS (Hims & Hers Health, Inc.) - Sector: Healthcare (Telehealth)
Sentiment: Bullish. Post-close call volume steady, RSI ~58 (up from ~55), Amplified GLP-1 demand—speculation persists despite tariff noise.
Tariff Impact: Minimal. Domestic focus shields HIMS; 104% China tariffs irrelevant unless generics supply tightens.
News/Catalysts:
Current: tariff pause softens market fear.
Upcoming: Retail Sales (April 15)—strong data could lift +5%; Fed rate outlook (May 2025)—cut signals might push +7%.
Technical Setup:
--Weekly Chart:
---HVN $30 (resistance), support ~$25.45.
---Uptrend (8-week EMA > 13-week > 48-week).
---RSI ~58, MACD above signal,
---Bollinger Bands upper band,
---Donchian Channels above midline,
---Williams %R -25.
--One-Hour Chart:
---Support $28.50, resistance $29.50.
---RSI ~60,
---MACD above signal,
---Bollinger Bands upper band,
---Donchian Channels above midline,
---Williams %R -20.
--10-Minute Chart:
---8/13/48 EMAs up,
---RSI ~62,
---MACD rising.
Options Data:
--GEX: Bullish—pinning near $29.
--DEX: Bullish—call delta dominates.
--IV: High—~50–55% vs. norm 45–50%.
--OI: Call-heavy—above $29.
Timeframe Analysis:
---Weekly: OI call-heavy (70% calls at $30), IV high (55%)—bullish, speculative push.
---Monthly: OI call-leaning (65% calls at $30–$32), IV moderate (50%)—bullish trend.
---3-Month: OI call-heavy (75% calls at $32), IV moderate (45%)—bullish long-term.
Directional Bias:
---Bullish. GEX/DEX and call OI signal strong upside; high IV fuels volatility—intraday breakout potential.
Sympathy Plays:
---TDOC rises with HIMS; AMWL gains with HIMS.
---Opposite: HIMS rallies → WMT fades.
Sector Positioning with RRG: Leading Quadrant (Healthcare vs. XLV)—growth persists.
Targets: Bullish +6% ($30.77); Bearish -3% ($28.16).
Amd - The One And Only Setup For 2025!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) shifts to a very bullish market:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Perfectly following previous cycles, Amd corrected about -60% over the past couple of months. However now we are seeing some first bullish signs at a major confluence of support. If we actually also witness bullish confirmation, an incredible rally of about +200% could follow.
Levels to watch: $100, $300
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P - What will happen next for the S&P?The S&P 500 has been dropping quickly after Trump's tariff policies were announced. It fell from 5750 to 4900, and is now at 5053, all in just a few days. This is a sharp decline, and sellers are clearly in control right now.
However, after such a big drop, it's common to see a short-term bounce before the market continues to fall. There is strong resistance between 5400 and 5500, which lines up with the golden pocket (a key level in technical analysis). This could make it harder for the S&P to rise past these levels.
Looking further down, there is another strong support area between 4500 and 4600. This level also matches the golden pocket on the daily chart, making it an important point for potential support. If the market keeps falling, we could see this area tested before any significant recovery.
Right now, it seems likely that the market will keep going lower. My main expectation is that we’ll get a small rally first, which could trick some traders into thinking the market is recovering, before continuing down. However, with all the uncertainty around the news and policies right now, it's also possible the market could keep dropping sharply without much of a rally.
Keep a close eye on the markets and stick to good risk management practices. If you don’t, it could really hurt your portfolio. Stay alert and adjust your strategy as things change.
Thanks for your support.
- Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis!
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The Stock Market (SPX) Will Also RecoverGreat news my dear friends, reader and followers, truly great news.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is now reversing after challenging a strong support level. This level is the 0.618 Fib. retracement for the bullish wave that started after the October 2023 market low. A strong bounce is visible as soon as this level was hit.
The correction is a classic ABC and the C wave is very steep. When a move is really strong, great force, it can't last that long. So the drop happened all at once, fast, and this means a fast end as well as a strong reversal, but the reversal will not be the same.
We are more likely than not to experience a long drawn out recovery, higher highs and higher lows long-term. Higher prices next.
This is the main support level, 0.618 around 4885. If this level breaks, the next strong support sits at 4540. We are going up.
It is not only Bitcoin and the Altcoins, the stock market will also grow.
The correction is over.
Total drop amounts to a little more than 21%.
This is huge and more than enough.
The bears are satisfied. The bears are done. A bearish wave is followed by a bullish wave.
Short bearish action, long bullish action.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
NVIDIA: Still has a long way to go.NVIDIA turned from oversold to neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.969, MACD = 44.021, ADX = 44.021) and is about to do the same on 1W too, as today's 90-day tariff pause announcement is giving the market an aggressive comeback. Technically though that doesn't seem enough to restore the tremendous bullish sentiment of 2023 and 1st half of 2024 as the trend is currently restricted by not only the 1D MA50 and MA200 but a LH trendline also coming straight from the ATH.
The same kind of LH kept NVDA at bay on its last main correction to the August 5th 2024 bottom. This started a +44.46% rally that got rejected on the LH trendline. If we apply that today we get a projected 1D MA200 test just under the LH trendline. A TP = 125.00 fits perfectly on the short term, but long term we still have a long way to go.
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NASDAQ Harmonic pattern indicating strong bounce incoming.AI vs. Dot-Com Bubble
When drawing parallels between #AI and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, many express concerns that current valuations may be excessively inflated. However, significant differences are apparent.
To begin with, the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the NASDAQ-100 is approximately 30, whereas during the dot-com bubble, it skyrocketed to 200, with many companies lacking any earnings in sight.
Additionally, the market capitalisation to #GDP ratio reached unprecedented levels in the late 1990s, while today's figures, although still high, are supported by robust earnings and solid cash flows from established business models.
Innovations in AI, cloud computing, and digital transformation have fuelled revenue growth, exemplified by #NVIDIA's data centre sales, which surged 409% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and Microsoft's Azure, which experienced a 28% year-over-year increase in 2024. This surge in productivity is being driven by individuals, businesses, and governments alike.
As a result, major tech firms are making substantial investments in AI research and development, with clear strategies for monetisation.
AI is poised to become a transformative force, akin to the transistor, a groundbreaking invention that scales effectively and permeates various sectors of the economy.
Lastly, the Federal Reserve raised interest #rates to 6.5% to tackle inflation after previously lowering them to address Y2K concerns before the bubble burst in 2000.
In contrast, current expectations suggest that interest rates will stabilise or decrease, which would support valuations.
HAPPENING NOW?! HERTZ CUP AND HANDLE BREAKOUT 1D CHART?HERTZ (HTZ) Price rose significantly to $4.26 on the 1 Day chart. Is this a sign of an impending bullish breakout? My personal target opinion for bullish movement is $5.50. Will this be a major bullish turning point for Hertz? Or will it be a easy grab for traders running short positions?
S&P 500 Index Under Pressure – Another -10% Drop Incoming?Today, I want to analyze the S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) for you. This index is one of the most important indices in the US stock market , which has been determining the direction of parallel financial markets such as crypto and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) for the past few days, so an analysis of this index can be important for us.
The S&P 500 Index started to fall after Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on countries around the world, which was like a coronavirus .
The question is whether this fall is temporary or will continue . To answer this question, we need to consider many parameters, but if we look at the sds chart from a technical analysis chart , we can expect a further decline .
The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,095) and is completing a pullback . It also lost its important Uptrend lines last week, which is not good news for the S&P 500 Index and US stocks .
From an Elliott wave theory , the S&P 500 IndexS&P looks like it has completed the main wave 4 , and we should expect the next decline(-10%) .
I expect the S&P 500 Index to attack the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) at least once more. The area where we can expect the S&P 500 Index to pull back is the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
What do you think? Will the S&P 500 Index continue its downward trend, or was this decline temporary?
Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,408, we can expect further Pumps.
Note: There is a possibility of a Bear Trap near the Heavy Support zone($4,820-$4,530) and PRZ.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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APPLE Best buy opportunity of the last 6 years.Back in August 02 2024 (see chart below), we introduced this model on Apple Inc. (AAPL) that had high probabilities of success at predicting Cycle peaks:
We may have not hit $280 but $260 is close enough especially if you are a long-term investor that values buying low and selling high.
Now that the price has corrected by -35% and just hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 10 years (since July 2016), it is time to revisit this macro-model once again.
As you can see, -35% corrections have been present on every Cycle since the January 2009 bottom of the Housing Crisis. The pattern that the stock follows is very specific and it starts with a prolonged correction, the Bear Cycle essentially, which is a lengthy correction phase, such as the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 2015/16 China slowdown and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Then a very structured uptrend phase starts in the form of a Channel Up that leads the market to its first peak, followed by a shorter, quicker correction phase that tests the 1M MA50 and rebounds. The rebound is the final bull phase of the Cycle, usually strong and sharp and leads to the eventual Cycle Top and then starts then new Bear Cycle (prolonged correction).
Right now the current 4-month correction is technically, based on this model, the new shorter correction. Being more than -35% in size, the last one larger than this was the previous short correction of the last Trade War in October 2018 - January 2019 (-38%).
The similarities don't stop here but extend to the 1M RSI as well, which just entered its 25-year mega Buy Zone that has been holding since December 2000 and the Dotcom Crash! In fact the last time Apple's 1M RSI was this low was in June 2013, which was the bottom of the 1st short correction on our chart.
This remarkable symmetry just shows how similar the current phase is with its previous ones and if the symmetry continues to hold, we should be expecting a strong recovery to start. Even if the price makes a slightly deeper low as -38% (like the January 2019 bottom), we may still expect the minimum rise that it had all those years shown on the chart, +145%, which translates to a potential $390 Target long-term.
It is in times like this, that patient long-term investors filter out the news noise, make their unbiased moves and maximize their profit.
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Monster Beverage Corp (MNST) – Energizing Global GrowthCompany Snapshot:
Monster NASDAQ:MNST continues to dominate the $60B+ global energy drink market, expanding across 159 countries with a diverse portfolio and strong executive leadership.
Key Catalysts:
Global Market Expansion 🌐
Strategic brands like Predator and Fury targeting emerging markets
New geographies = incremental revenue & brand exposure
Category Leadership & Diversification 🥤
Strong lineup: Monster Energy®, Reign®, Bang®, Java Monster®, NOS®
Broad consumer appeal → fuels market share gains in both premium & value tiers
Industry Tailwinds 📊
Energy drink market projected to grow at 7.6% CAGR (2025–2029)
Monster well-positioned with affordable, recognizable, and global brands
Leadership & ESG Strength 💼💚
Longtime Co-CEOs Rodney Sacks & Hilton Schlosberg driving global strategy
Involvement in charitable events reinforces brand goodwill and consumer trust
Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $50.00–$51.00
🚀 Upside Target: $75.00–$76.00
📈 Growth Drivers: Emerging market expansion, brand strength, leadership, and rising category demand
⚡️ Monster – Powering growth from the shelf to the streets. #MNST #EnergyDrinks #GlobalLeader
TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD 100% bounce🔸Hello traders, today let's review daily chart for TSLA. we are
looking at a 67% correction, almost complete now, another 67%
recent correction presented on the right.
🔸Most of the bad news already price in and we are getting
oversold, expecting a bottom in weeks now not months.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: BUY/HOLD once 67% correction
completes at/near strong horizontal S/R 140/150 USD, TP bulls
is 280/300 USD, which is 100% unleveraged gain.
**Tesla (TSLA) Market Update – April 9, 2025**
📉 **Stock Decline:** TSLA closed at $221.86, down 4.9%, amid new tariffs and CEO Elon Musk's political involvement
**Analyst Downgrades:*
Wedbush's Dan Ives cut the price target by 43% to $315, citing a "brand crisis"
Wells Fargo's Colin Langan set a target at $130, anticipating a potential 50% drop
📊 **Delivery Shortfall:** Q1 deliveries fell 13% year-over-year to 336,000 vehicles, missing expectations by about 40,000 unis.
🌍 **Tariff Impact:** President Trump's new tariffs are expected to increase costs and disrupt Tesla's supply chain, especially concerning Chinese operatins.
💡 **Investor Sentiment:** Analysts express concern over Musk's political ties affecting Tesla's brand and sales, particularly in China.
So here’s what I’m doing: Not Panicking.This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research.
Listen, the US has survived the depression of WWI, the Great Depression, the depression of WWII, oil shocks, the dot com bubble, the GFC, the COVID-sell off. It’ll likely survive this.
In the scope of history, that $1 survived very well indeed. Panicking and running for the hills does not do so well. Winston Churchill was a great and flawed man but a terrible investor; he bought and sold shares prior to the 1929 crash in such speculative investments as mining companies, railways, and so on — most of them lost money (hence why Churchill continued to write at such a pace — to fund his Champagne-and-spec stock lifestyle). Hetty Green, on the other hand, (known as the “Queen of Wall Street”, managed to do very well her time — her quote?
I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them until they go up, and people are crazy to get them.
Now, that’s something I can get behind.
Nobody wanted Meta a few years ago. I wrote an internal memo, close to its plummet in ‘22 (it got to $99 or so a share!). I wrote this:
ii) Yet what if we were to tell about about a company with this set of heuristics? Let’s call it “Company A”
Company A has a 31% return on equity and a 20% return on capital.
It has a net income margin of 37% and a FCF margin of 21%
Its income has a compounded annual growth rate over the last 5 years of 41%
If we add in numbers, now, let’s say the net income for 2020 was $29 billion, and $10 billion of that was used to repurchase stock from shareholders?
Let’s say the unlevered FCF is around $6 billion per quarter, and let’s say the debt to equity ratio is about 9x.
In other words, Company A is grows at a quick clip, and has done sustainably for the majority of its life. Its return on capital and return on equity would make any investor happy. Its FCF is an absolute machine.
Would you buy Company A?
Company A was Meta . You would’ve roughly made 4x or 5x’d your money if you’d bought around then. The point is, the fundamentals of a business matter, and right now there a quite a few exceptional businesses with good fundamentals trading at a good price. Alphabet (Google) trades at ~16x earnings. LVMH trades at ~18x earnings. And so on. Brown-Forman trades at ~15x earnings. These are all “inevitables” — Google will continue to be a dominant advertising platform, LVMH will continue to sell luxury, and Brown-Forman will continue to sell Jack Daniel’s and so on.
I talked to my ma in the weekend. She is not really a share person. Her portfolio is a bunch of “inevitables”. It’s done very well. She said “aren’t you worried about this stock market?”, and I said “You love supermarket shopping, Mum. If you see something at a 25% discount you buy it. You come home, and you’re delighted that you found some mince on special²”
She was like, “oh, that makes sense”.
The problem is you have a lot of people looking at charts and catching worry that the world will end. The world, I am delighted to say, has a magnificent disposition to carry on.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 9, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Implementation of New U.S. Tariffs: As of April 9, the U.S. has imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.
🛢️📉 Oil Prices Decline Sharply: In response to escalating trade tensions, oil prices have fallen nearly 4%, reaching their lowest levels since early 2021. Brent crude dropped to $60.69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $57.22.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, April 9:
📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.8%
Indicates the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers, reflecting supply chain dynamics.
🗣️ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET):
Remarks may shed light on economic conditions and policy perspectives.
📝 FOMC Meeting Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET):
Provides detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy deliberations from the March meeting.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Bond Futures Back At SupportTrade is fairly simple here. Go long treasuries and if it breaks down cut.
- A bounce and push back up could be another ugly catalyst for the US stock market.
- A breakdown however would push yields up (and economic growth forecasts) which would be quite bullish for stocks especially down at these levels