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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.14.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: Trump Signs Reciprocal Tariffs Executive Order: President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries with trade barriers against the U.S. The tariffs will not take effect immediately, which has been well-received by the markets. Potential Ukraine Peace Talks: The U.S. is initiating discussions with Russia and Ukraine to potentially end the ongoing conflict. This development has led to a decrease in crude oil prices and could influence global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Friday, Feb 14: 🛍️ Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM. 🌐 U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes (8:30 AM ET): Import Prices: Forecast: +0.5% MoM; Previous: +0.1% MoM. Export Prices: Forecast: Data not available; Previous: +0.3% MoM 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #daytrading #charting #trendtao
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Is Liquidity Zones The Hidden Battleground of Smart Money In every market move, liquidity zones are the battlefields between buyers and sellers. Understanding these zones is crucial for spotting reversals and breakouts before they happen. What Are Liquidity Zones? High Liquidity Areas, Where large orders are placed, typically around key support/resistance or round numbers. Low Liquidity Areas. Where price moves quickly due to fewer orders, often creating price imbalances. Why Liquidity Matters Smart money (institutions) seeks liquidity to execute large orders without massive slippage. Their footprints appear as wicks, sudden volume spikes, or rapid price reversals. Spotting Liquidity Traps False Breakouts, Price pierces a key level, triggers stop losses, and reverses quickly. Stop Hunts, Sudden price spikes beyond a key level, only to return inside the range. rading Strategy Example 1. Use volume profile or heat maps to spot high-interest price areas. 2. Wait for Reaction, Enter only after confirmation (e.g., a sharp wick or order flow shift). 3.Risk Management, Place stops beyond liquidity zones to avoid getting trapped. Master liquidity zones, and you'll start seeing the market through the eyes of institutional players.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by wolfchemist
Broadcom - This Chart Is Just Splendid!Broadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ) is starting the rejection: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For the past decade, Broadcom has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation, perfectly rejecting the upper resistance as well as the lower support trendline. With the recent weakness, Broadcom is now preparing for a clean rejection away from the major reversal area. Levels to watch: $250, $150 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by basictradingtv
8
$TLSA Poised For An 85% Surge Amidst Alzheimer’s Drug BoomTiziana Life Sciences Ltd (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TLSA ), a stock that has been under the radar, is now showing strong signals of a potential breakout. With a falling wedge pattern and a bullish RSI reading, coupled with the growing interest in Alzheimer’s drug development, NASDAQ:TLSA is positioning itself as a stock to watch in 2025. Technical Analysis As of the time of writing, (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TLSA ) shares are down 5.52%, but this dip is likely a temporary setback. The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52.77, which, despite the recent decline, suggests that bullish momentum is building. The RSI is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating a healthy consolidation phase before a potential upward move. The most Intriguing technical indicator is the falling wedge pattern that has formed since January 23. This pattern is typically a bullish reversal signal, especially after a prolonged downtrend. The falling wedge is characterized by converging trendlines that slope downward, with the price making lower highs and lower lows. As the pattern nears its apex, the likelihood of a breakout increases. For NASDAQ:TLSA , the immediate support lies at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A pullback to this zone could serve as an excellent buying opportunity for traders, as it aligns with recent resistance-turned-support levels. On the upside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is acting as a pivot point. A breakout above this level could ignite a bullish rally, potentially propelling the stock toward an 85% surge. Alzheimer’s Drugs – The Next Big Market Opportunity While the technical setup is compelling, the story behind NASDAQ:TLSA is equally intriguing. The Alzheimer’s drug market is emerging as the next big opportunity, drawing parallels to the obesity drug boom led by companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. With an estimated market value of $13 billion by 2030, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, the race to develop effective Alzheimer’s treatments is heating up. Companies like Biogen Inc., Eli Lilly & Co., Novo Nordisk, and Roche AG are investing billions into Alzheimer’s research. Recent developments have shown promise, with two new drugs—Leqembi (developed by Biogen and Eisai) and Kisunla (by Eli Lilly)—already approved in the U.S. These drugs target amyloid plaques in the brain, slowing the progression of the disease in its early stages. However, they are not without challenges, as side effects like brain bleeding and swelling have been reported. For (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TLSA ) stock, this presents a unique opportunity. If the company is involved in Alzheimer’s research or has partnerships with major pharmaceutical players, it could benefit significantly from the growing interest in this sector. Even if NASDAQ:TLSA is not directly involved, the overall bullish sentiment in the healthcare and biotech sectors could provide a tailwind for the stock. Additionally, any positive developments in Alzheimer’s drug trials or approvals could act as a catalyst for NASDAQ:TLSA , driving the stock higher. As Gregoire Biollaz, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management, noted, “It could be a year where we also see a bit more clarity in terms of traction for the drugs that are approved so far.” Conclusion NASDAQ: NASDAQ:TLSA is at a critical juncture, with both technical and fundamental indicators pointing to a potential surge. The falling wedge pattern suggest that the stock is building momentum, while the growing interest in Alzheimer’s drugs provides a strong fundamental catalyst. For investors seeking the next big opportunity, NASDAQ:TLSA could be the stock to watch in 2025. As always, investors should conduct their own due diligence and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. However, with an 85% surge on the horizon, NASDAQ:TLSA is undoubtedly a stock worth keeping on your radar.
NASDAQ:TLSALong
by DEXWireNews
TSLA - Filling the gap and then upside?The stock is trading around $337, showing significant volatility after a sharp decline from recent highs near $480. There's a notable gap in the price action around the $260-280 region that hasn't been filled. The overall price action has formed a series of lower highs since the recent peak. The current technical structure suggests potential weakness in the near term. The unfilled gap around $260-280 could act as a magnetic price level. Historical price action shows that gaps tend to get filled eventually, supporting the likelihood of a move down to this region.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by financialflagship
NVIDIA: last accumulation before $260 rally.NVIDIA is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.723, MACD = -1.780, ADX = 32.427) as the price is accumulating in preparation for the 2025 rally. We are on a 1D MA50-100 squeeze that looks very much like November 6th 2023. The 1D RSI patterns among those two Bull Flags are also identical and what followed this squeeze was a +150% rally from the last bottom. The trade is long (TP = 260.00) aiming for a full +150% extension. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by InvestingScope
2
FRESHWORKS ($FRSH): DRIVING AI-POWERED GROWTH IN SaaSFRESHWORKS ( NASDAQ:FRSH ): DRIVING AI-POWERED GROWTH IN SaaS 1/7 Revenue Growth: Freshworks just posted $194.6M in Q4 2024 (+22% YoY), with full-year revenue hitting $ 720M (+21% YoY)! ⚡️ Growth is fueled by new customer wins and the rising AI demand in customer service, sales, and IT solutions. 2/7 – EARNINGS BEAT • Non-GAAP EPS: $0.14 (beat by $0.04) 💰 • Operating profit for FY2024 doubled to $ 99M from $ 44.5M in 2023 🔥 • FY2025 guidance: Revenue $ 809M–$ 821M (12–14% YoY growth) 🚀 3/7 – CASH FLOW & PROFITABILITY • Free Cash Flow margin at 21% in Q4—showing major profitability strides 💸 • Shifting from less profitable past to a more robust, scalable business model 🏆 4/7 – SECTOR SNAPSHOT • Competes with Salesforce, HubSpot, Zendesk in the SaaS arena 🌐 • Enterprise Value to Revenue ratio is on the lower end—could be undervalued given its growth 📈 • Mid-market & SMB focus → niche advantage vs. pricier enterprise solutions 5/7 – RISK FACTORS • Market Competition: Big fish (Salesforce) + fresh entrants (Zendesk) 🏦 • Customer Acquisition: High marketing costs, must maintain ROI 🤝 • Economic Sensitivity: Downturn = possible budget cuts on software 💼 • Tech Shifts: Rapid AI innovation—no resting on laurels! 🤖 6/7 – SWOT HIGHLIGHTS Strengths: • Strong AI-driven revenue growth • Wide product portfolio (sales, IT, support, etc.) • Growing customer base & retention ✅ Weaknesses: • Less profitable historically (though improving) • Revenue heavily reliant on core products 😬 Opportunities: • Expand into untapped global markets • Double down on AI for new revenue streams 🌍 Threats: • Market saturation & intense competition 🏁 • Data privacy regs could disrupt operations ⚖️ 7/7 Freshworks: undervalued gem or just another SaaS player? 1️⃣ Bullish—AI + mid-market niche = unstoppable! 🏅 2️⃣ Neutral—Need more proof of profitability 🤔 3️⃣ Bearish—Competition & economy hold it back 🐻 Vote below! 🗳️👇
NASDAQ:FRSHLong
by DCAChampion
2
UPSTART ($UPST): AI-DRIVEN LENDING ON THE RISEUPSTART ( NASDAQ:UPST ): AI-DRIVEN LENDING ON THE RISE 1/8 – REVENUE & EARNINGS BLAST • Q4 2024 revenue: $219M (+56% YoY) 🔥 • Powered by a 68% jump in loan originations 💸 • EPS: $0.26, beating estimates by $0.30 (analysts expected -$0.04) 🚀 • Positive Adj. EBITDA—Upstart’s inching closer to sustained profitability 🏆 2/8 – BIG FINANCIAL EVENTS • Strong focus on AI model innovation + expanding funding supply 🤖 • Management bullish on earnings call—AI improvements = growth catalyst 🚀 • Renowned for bridging lenders & borrowers via advanced, automated credit assessments 🌐 3/8 – SECTOR COMPARISON • Some valuation measures say overvalued (e.g., GF Value ~$28 vs. market ~$65) 🧐 • Outpacing fintech peers like SoFi, PayPal, Ally in revenue growth 📈 • Profitability & multiples (P/E, P/S) lag behind due to recent net losses 😬 • Unique AI-lending angle may justify a premium—if it pays off 💡 4/8 – RISK ASSESSMENT • Partner Dependence: A few big lenders = high exposure ⚠️ • Economic Sensitivity: Loan defaults rise if consumer conditions worsen 🌪️ • Regulatory Hurdles: Shifting financial rules could dent operations 🏛️ • Credit Risk: Holding loans on the balance sheet—watch out in downturns 💥 5/8 – SWOT HIGHLIGHTS Strengths: • Advanced AI for credit analysis 🤖 • High automation in approvals ⚡️ • Scalable via partner expansions 🌍 Weaknesses: • Limited operating history ⏳ • Recent financial losses 📉 • Reliance on key partners 🤝 Opportunities: • New loan products (auto, HELOC, etc.) 🚗🏠 • Expanding digital lending market 🌐 • Gaining market share as AI evolves 🔬 Threats: • Fierce fintech competition 🏁 • Possible regulatory changes ⚖️ • Macro headwinds affecting credit demand 🌩️ 6/8 – UN/UNDERVALUATION DEBATE • Some see big future potential → undervalued by growth prospects 💹 • Others worry about multiples & an over-reliance on economic upswings 😬 • Recovery depends on broader economic rebound & strong risk management 🏦 7/8 Is Upstart a gem or a risk? 1️⃣ Bullish—AI lending will transform fintech 🏅 2️⃣ Cautiously Optimistic—Need more stability 🤔 3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation & macro risks are too high 🚫 Vote below! 🗳️👇 8/8 – STRATEGY WATCH • Keep tabs on new loan products & partnerships 🛠️ • Monitor economic indicators (defaults, credit demand) impacting revenue 💼 • Regulatory shifts can either boost or bury AI-lending advantage ⚠️
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by DCAChampion
1
Is Calvin Klein BRAT?I am going to embarrass myself here and tell you that I did not know that PVH was a listed company, and it owns Calvin Klein! D’oh! They also own Tommy Hilfiger. You may think of CK as mostly a marketer of bras, underwear and so on. But for a while they were a force in American fashion — a kind of utilitarian, Carolyn Bassette-Kennedy vision of sporty chic. They just had their first fashion show in 7 years, and they hired ex-Celine assistant designer Veronica Leoni. The show felt like a retrospective in a sense, and it mostly drew from Raf Simon’s era there — critically praised but didn’t sell. I guess the question though, is, how do the new clothes translate into product? After all, CK has great marketing — and a great brand — but the product, other than bras and undies — is not there. Remains to be seen. Right now PVH is a bit of a shitshow — I mean, there are fires everywhere: Not only has China just blacklisted it, they also have their manufacturing agreement with G-III ending in 2027. They’ve said they’d like to onshore, but that’s easier said than done — people forget how integrated China is in the manufacturing process. You can’t just magic up that scale overnight! In other words, there’s a reason it trades at 6x earnings. Is CK brat? No. Reminds me of a few other US retail stocks — VF Corp, for one, which makes Vans and The North Face. Fine product, but cyclical as anything — too much of a hostage to retail stores. No margin. Not brat either. This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox.
NYSE:PVH
by BlackBull_Markets
Nasdaq - Starting The Final Parabolic Year!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is perfectly following the breakout: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Back in 2020 we already witnessed the channel break and retest, which was followed by a parabolic rally of another +50%. And in mid 2024, the Nasdaq again broke the channel trendline towards the upside, preparing the repetition of the parabolic rally which we saw four years ago. Levels to watch: $30.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQLong
by basictradingtv
14
TESLA Is this the right time to buy again?Right at the start of the year (January 02, see chart below) we issued a Sell Target on Tesla (TSLA) at $330: This was based on the 1-year Parabolic Growth Channel of the stock, which formed a Higher High and was already in the rejection phase. The 330 Target was hit yesterday, the price touched the bottom of the Channel and we already see a recovery attempt today. The condition that completes the strong buy sentiment that is emerging on Tesla, is that it hit yesterday the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since October 23 2024. As you can see, the last two times that the stock traded on its 1D MA100, it was the most optimal buy opportunity. Following a -33% decline on the previous two corrections of the Parabolic Channel, we've always seen an immediate rebound of at least +43.38%. As a result, we expect Tesla to initiate the new Bullish Leg, which, before a Higher High, can target on the short-term $465 (+43.38%). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by TradingShot
20
STOCKS | AI | Amazon, Meta & MSFTPeople who are saying that AI is just a bubble are missing the big picture. Huge tech companies are pouring serious money into it, which shows they believe AI is here to stay. We're talking massive investments – like over $320 billion in AI infrastructure by 2025, according to the Financial Times. Amazon is planning over $100 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, mainly focused on AI infrastructure. This could be huge not only for NASDAQ:AMZN as a whole but also for the AI industry. Alphabet is also throwing in around $75 billion this year to boost its AI capabilities. These kinds of investments from the top players make it clear: they know you have to spend big to win in the AI game and clearly there is a race going on, especially after the release of DeepSeekAI. American companies don't want to be left behind, and it's likely that they will pour money into integrating AI to improve their business operation - with the ultimate aim to improve profit - which is great for stock prices. How they make money from AI might change over time, but the overall direction is obvious – AI is changing everything and driving innovation. According to Statista, the global AI market is predicted to reach around $826 billion by 2030. That kind of growth tells you AI is going to be a major force in just about every industry. And therefore I believe that all the companies making major investment in AI will also see exponential growth over the next 5 years - meaning it may be a longer term game play. _______________ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:META
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Crypto-Check-
2
Sideways Markets? Heres why Im still getting paidSideways Market? Here’s Why I’m Still Getting Paid | SPX Market Analysis 12 Feb 2025 The markets may be moving like molasses, but that’s no problem when you’re getting paid to wait. While others are watching charts in frustration, our Theta decay is quietly dripping profits into our accounts. No rush, no panic—just letting the market do its thing while we collect. Let’s break it down… --- SPX Deeper Dive Analysis: 📉 Markets Are Moving Sideways—And That’s OK SPX is stuck in a range, drifting aimlessly while traders wait for direction. But unlike those who need a big breakout to make money, we’re already profiting while standing still. 💰 Theta Decay – The Power of Getting Paid to Wait While the market meanders, options lose value That lost value turns into profits for our income trades Instead of hoping for a massive move, we collect steady gains 📌 The Current Market View We still anticipate a move from the upper range to the lower range 📉 No need to force trades—our edge is patience If SPX moves, great. If not, we still win 🔑 Why Income Trading Wins in a Sideways Market Unlike traditional trading methods where: ❌ You need a strong directional move to profit ❌ You rely on timing the market perfectly ❌ You risk getting stopped out too soon We simply: ✅ Let Theta decay work in our favour ✅ Profit even when the market goes nowhere ✅ Have time on our side—no need for constant action 📌 Final Takeaway? The market may be stuck, but profits aren’t. Theta is working, our positions are intact, and there’s no stress—just steady gains. --- Fun Fact: 📢 Did you know? The S&P 500 has spent nearly 80% of its time trading sideways rather than trending up or down. 💡 The Lesson? The market isn’t always moving—but smart traders don’t need it to. That’s why income trading thrives when others struggle.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Gilead Sciences (GILD) Soars 4.93% on Strong Q4 Earnings ReportsGilead Sciences (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:GILD ) is making waves in the biotech sector after delivering a stellar fourth-quarter earnings report that not only crushed Wall Street expectations but also set the stage for a promising 2025. The stock surged 4.50% in premarket trading on Wednesday, signaling strong investor confidence in the company’s growth trajectory. Quarter and Optimistic Guidance Gilead’s Q4 earnings report was nothing short of impressive. The company posted adjusted earnings of $1.90 per share, a 10.5% year-over-year increase, and handily beat analysts’ estimates of $1.74. Revenue climbed 6% to $7.57 billion, surpassing the consensus forecast of $7.15 billion. HIV Franchise Shines Bright Gilead’s HIV portfolio remains its crown jewel. Biktarvy, the company’s flagship HIV treatment, generated $3.8 billion in sales, up 21% year-over-year and well ahead of the $3.47 billion forecast. Descovy, another HIV drug, also outperformed expectations, with sales rising 21% to $616 million. Combined, Gilead’s HIV product sales reached $5.45 billion, up 16% from the previous year. Looking ahead, Gilead is poised to expand its HIV franchise further with the anticipated mid-2025 launch of lenacapavir, a twice-yearly injectable for HIV prevention. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is expected to make a decision on the drug by mid-2024, and its approval could be a significant growth catalyst. Oncology and Liver Disease: Steady Growth Gilead’s oncology and liver disease segments also contributed to the strong quarter. Sales of its cell therapies for cancer treatment rose 5% to $488 million, beating expectations of $476 million. Trodelvy, a cancer drug, saw sales jump 19% to $355 million, surpassing the $324 million forecast. Liver disease treatments brought in $719 million, up 4% year-over-year. Veklury: The Only Blemish The only downside in Gilead’s report was Veklury, its COVID-19 treatment. Sales plummeted 53% to $337 million due to lower hospitalizations, particularly in the U.S. Upbeat 2025 Guidance Gilead’s bullish outlook for 2025 further fueled investor optimism. The company expects adjusted earnings of $7.70 to $8.10 per share on product sales of $28.2 billion to $28.6 billion. The midpoint of this guidance exceeds analysts’ estimates of $7.61 per share and $28.35 billion in revenue. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, Gilead’s stock is showing strong bullish signals. As of Wednesday’s premarket trading, GILD is up 4.93%, poised to form a gap-up pattern upon market open. Key Levels to Watch - Resistance: A breakout above the 1-month high of $100 could serve as a critical catalyst for a sustained bullish run. This level represents a psychological barrier, and a decisive move above it could attract more buyers. - Support: In the event of a pullback, immediate support lies at the 65% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the $92 mark. This level could act as a springboard for renewed upward momentum. RSI Indicates Room for Growth The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. This suggests there is ample room for further upside, especially if the broader market sentiment remains favorable. Conclusion Gilead Sciences (GILD) is firing on all cylinders, with a strong Q4 earnings beat, robust guidance for 2025, and a promising pipeline. The company’s leadership in the HIV market, coupled with its growing presence in oncology and liver disease, positions it well for long-term growth. From a technical standpoint, the stock is primed for a breakout, with key resistance and support levels offering clear markers for traders and investors.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by DEXWireNews
100% Gains in Walmart! What’s Next at This Key Level?Hello readers, Back in July 2023, I pointed out a major breakout in Walmart (WMT) after years of struggle around the $150-$154 zone. Fast forward, and here we are – Walmart has doubled in price! 📈 Of course, this isn't the raw $300 we might expect because of the 3-for-1 stock split, but the percentage gain remains a solid 100%+ from our entry. What Now? $100 is a round number, and historically, NYSE:WMT has reacted to these psychological levels. The market has started to range in these level, suggesting some hesitation. Taking partial or full profits could be a smart move – but as always, the choice is yours! This is just a reminder and a heads-up to stay aware of price action. Trade smart! 💡 Let me know your thoughts – are you holding or booking profits? Cheers, Vaido
NYSE:WMT
by VaidoVeek
1
Coca-Cola (KO) Stock Surges Nearly 5% in a DayCoca-Cola (KO) Stock Surges Nearly 5% in a Day Yesterday, shares of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) saw a significant rally, climbing nearly 5% and reaching a yearly high above $67. The last time KO stock traded at this level was in late October 2024. Investor optimism was fueled by the release of the company’s Q4 financial report, which exceeded expectations: → Reported earnings per share: $0.55 vs. expected $0.52 → Gross revenue: $11.5 billion vs. forecasted $10.7 billion Additionally, Coca-Cola announced: → A substantial market share increase in the non-alcoholic beverage sector and $10.8 billion in free cash flow. → Projections for 5–6% organic revenue growth in 2025, highlighting the company’s resilience amid economic uncertainty. Technical Analysis of Coca-Cola (KO) Stock At yesterday’s market open, KO formed a large bullish gap, which may act as future support. Meanwhile, price extremes outline an ascending channel pattern. If optimism persists: → The price may move towards the channel median, where supply and demand tend to balance (similar to early 2025). → Bears might become active around $69.25, a level that has previously influenced price movements (indicated by arrows). Analysts' Price Forecast for Coca-Cola (KO) Stock Following the earnings report, analysts from leading investment firms have acknowledged Coca-Cola’s strong performance, either reaffirming or raising their price targets for KO stock: → Citi maintained a "Buy" rating with a $85 price target. → Jefferies reiterated its "Buy" rating with a target of $75. → UBS kept its "Buy" rating, setting a $72 target. According to TipRanks: → 12 out of 13 surveyed analysts recommend buying KO stock. → The 12-month average price target for KO is $72.4. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NYSE:KO
by FXOpen
1
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.12.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇺🇸🏛️ Fed Chair Powell Testifies: At 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify before Congress, providing insights into the economic outlook and potential monetary policy adjustments. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Wednesday, Feb 12: 🏢 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.4% MoM. 📈 Core CPI (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: +0.3% MoM; Previous: +0.2% MoM. 📉 CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 2.9%; Previous 2.9%. 📉 Core CPI (YoY) (Jan): Expected 3.1%; Previous 3.2%. 🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 AM ET): Previous: +8.664M. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SP:SPX
by TrendTao
4 Scenarios for Anticipating The Fed's PolicyBased on prevailing economic conditions and financial pressures Scenario #1 | The Fed’s Policy and Its Implications High Inflation Persists & Bank Liquidity Declines Conditions: Bank Credit grows slowly, while Deposits grow at a slower pace than Borrowings. Cash Assets decline significantly, indicating a reduction in liquidity within the banking system. Interbank lending rates rise, tightening funding among banks. Inflation remains high, but economic growth slows. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Maintain high interest rates or increase further to curb inflation. Reduce bond holdings through Quantitative Tightening (QT) to absorb liquidity from the financial system. Open emergency lending facilities for banks to prevent panic in financial markets. Impacts: USD may strengthen as higher interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to global investors. Increased pressure on banks, especially those heavily reliant on short-term funding. Stock markets may experience a correction, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as technology and real estate. Scenario #2 | Recession Starts to Surface & Credit Tightens Conditions: Bank Credit stagnates or turns negative, indicating that banks are restricting credit due to concerns about default risks. Deposits stagnate, as investors prefer alternative assets such as bonds or gold. Stock markets begin showing bearish pressure due to economic uncertainty. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Gradually lower interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. End Quantitative Tightening (QT) and restart Quantitative Easing (QE) to inject liquidity into the markets. Adjust bank reserve requirements to allow more flexibility in lending. Impacts: USD may weaken as lower interest rates reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. U.S. government bonds will become more attractive, causing bond yields to decline further. Stock prices may rise, particularly in sectors that benefit from lower interest rates, such as technology and real estate. Scenario #3 | Liquidity Crisis in the Banking System Conditions: Sharp declines in Cash Assets, causing some banks to struggle to meet short-term obligations. Deposits exit the banking system, as public confidence in banks decreases. Federal Funds Rate spikes, making interbank borrowing more difficult. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Provide emergency lending facilities for banks facing liquidity shortages, as seen during the 2008 and 2023 financial crises. Lower interest rates in an emergency move if liquidity pressures worsen to maintain financial stability. Collaborate with the FDIC to guarantee deposits and prevent bank runs. Impacts: Financial markets may experience high volatility, with potential panic selling in banking stocks. Investors will flock to safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. government bonds, causing their prices to surge. Confidence in the USD may temporarily weaken, especially if the Fed injects large amounts of liquidity into the system. Scenario #4 | Soft Landing - Stable Economy & Fed Policy Adjustments Conditions: Inflation is under control, and the economy continues to grow positively. Bank Credit grows steadily, and bank liquidity remains adequate. Stock markets remain calm, with no signs of panic in financial markets. Possible Fed Policy Responses: Keep interest rates stable for an extended period, with no drastic changes. End Quantitative Tightening (QT), but avoid immediately restarting QE. Collaborate with financial regulators to maintain banking system stability without major interventions. Impacts: USD remains stable, as no major monetary policy changes occur. Lending rates remain in a moderate range, supporting investment and consumption growth. Stock markets may gradually recover, particularly in sectors benefiting from stable monetary policies. Anticipating The Fed’s Policy! If liquidity declines and inflation remains high → The Fed is likely to maintain high interest rates & tighten monetary policy. If a recession starts to emerge → The Fed may lower interest rates & ease monetary policy to support credit and investment. If a liquidity crisis occurs → The Fed may bail out banks, lower interest rates, and stabilize the financial system. If the economy remains stable → The Fed may hold interest rates & make only minor adjustments. Recommendations: Monitor The Fed’s statements and key economic data (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP) to anticipate upcoming policy changes. Analyze market reactions to monetary policy to identify trends in stocks, bonds, and USD. Use bank liquidity and Borrowings data to assess potential liquidity constraints in the banking system. If you have additional insights or different perspectives, I’d love to discuss them in the comments! ICEUS:DX1! ICEUS:DXY CBOE:CBOE NASDAQ:CME TVC:US10Y
ICEUS:DX1!
by CipherOracle