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WE GOT A 5/5 TRADE SETUP ON MBLY. LARGE MOVE INCOMING! NASDAQ:MBLY 🖐️WE GOT A 5/5 TRADE SETUP ON MOBILEYE. My trading strategy consists of 5 Indicators: 1.) A clear and clean Charting pattern setup. ✔️For this chart that is a symmetrical pattern. 2.) A Volume Gap to fill and strong buying area. ✔️ Clearly sitting on a large "Volume shelf" - JW 3.) The MACD up trending. Crossing Zero line=Bullish ✔️ We are indeed up trending and a Zero line crossing is imminent for this chart. 4.) Stochastic rising and making higher lows. ✔️ Up trending and just crossed the middle RSI band. Higher lows are being made on this chart. 5.) Weekly Stochastic Up Trend. Most bullish once it crosses up through lower band or down through upper band. ✔️ Clearly had a red through yellow flip and are up trending on this charts stochastic heading toward Lower band. Bonus: We are staying above the 50MA and about to have the 25MA cross upward through the 50MA as well (BULLISH Signal). Finally, I've been following this stock for awhile now and every market open we get a massive amount of short volume in order to try and drive down the stock and get the 20% of shareholders who aren't NASDAQ:INTC to sell them their shares for them to cover at lower prices. I hope you enjoyed it! Like ❤️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂 NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:ENPH NASDAQ:SBUX NYSE:MCD #Stock #stocks #Stockmarket #EarningsReport #TradingTips #investing #investingideas
NASDAQ:MBLYLong
by RonnieV29
18
Coinbase (COIN): Strong push ahead after Bitcoin surge!After our last analysis on NASDAQ:COIN two months ago, we saw another leg down into the golden pocket and the imbalances we were watching. These got partially filled, reaching around 50%, which provided the necessary strength for a push higher. This recent jump is largely due to Bitcoin's rise over the past weeks, as Coinbase, being a major holder of Bitcoin, has directly benefited from this positive development. This surge was strong enough to invalidate the bearish trend on the higher time frame, confirming that a bullish sequence is now in play. The biggest and closest resistance ahead is the VAH (Volume Area High) traded since November 2023. With the RSI currently overbought and showing a bearish divergence, a pullback could be on the horizon. However, we aren't too concerned about this unless the price drops below $160.50. The bullish outlook will only be invalidated if it dips under $145. One thing to note about NASDAQ:COIN is its heavy correlation with Bitcoin, which introduces more volatility. The crypto market is also playing a key role in the U.S. elections, with both Trump and Harris addressing the sector. This could provide some tailwinds for Coinbase in the future. In terms of the broader outlook, the potential wave ((iii)) could see a rise toward $263-$323, though this will take time to unfold. Given the market dynamics, it's better to remain cautious, but the setup looks promising. Overall, we continue to monitor NASDAQ:COIN closely, but we are more inclined to invest in Bitcoin itself due to the inherent correlation and volatility with the stock.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
GENERAL MOTORS rally expected ahead of major 1W Golden CrossGeneral Motors (GM) is close to a Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is a major bullish development as since its first trading days in November 2010, it has only been formed twice. The first one was on the week of June 19 2017 and second on March 29 2021. In both cases, the price rallied aggressively and reached the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the pull-back that took place before. On top of that, its last two lows and the August 05 in particular, tested and successfully held both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). As a result, we expect the price to extend the rally and target at least $65.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:GMLong
by TradingShot
1
SWING IDEA - TORRENT POWERTorrent Power, a major player in the power sector, is showing strong technical signs of a swing trading opportunity. Reasons are listed below : 1650 Support Zone : The 1650 level has acted as a strong support zone, and the price is holding steady around this level, indicating potential upside. Bullish Engulfing Candle on Daily Timeframe : A bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart suggests strong buying momentum, indicating that the stock may reverse from its current support zone. Double Bottom Pattern : The formation of a double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal signal, indicating the stock may have completed its downtrend and is now primed for an upward move. 0.618 Fibonacci Level Support : The stock has bounced back from the golden Fibonacci retracement level, providing additional support to the bullish thesis. 50 EMA Support : The price is holding above the 50-day exponential moving average, adding strength to the current setup and suggesting the trend is intact. Target - 1908 // 2000 Stoploss - daily close below 1610 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:TORNTPOWERLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
SWING IDEA - AMBER ENTERPRISESAmber Enterprises , a leading player in the Indian air conditioning and refrigeration industry, is showing technical signals that suggest a promising swing trading opportunity. Reasons are listed below : 4600 Resistance Breakout : The 4600 level has been a significant resistance zone. The price is now breaking out above this level, indicating strong bullish momentum. Strong Bullish Marubozu Candle on Daily and Weekly Timeframes : The recent formation of bullish marubozu candles on both the daily and weekly charts indicates strong buying pressure and suggests potential for further upward movement. Trading Above 50 and 200 EMA : The stock is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), reinforcing the bullish sentiment and providing strong support levels. Higher Highs : The stock is consistently making higher highs, indicating a strong upward trend. Gradual Increase in Volumes : A noticeable increase in trading volumes confirms the strength of the price move and indicates growing investor interest. Trading at All-Time High : The stock is trading at its all-time high, suggesting strong market confidence and potential for further gains. DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:AMBERLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
BANK OF AMERICA Short-term buy signal.Last time we gave a signal on the Bank of America Corporation (BAC), was exactly a year ago (October 11 2023, see chart below), with the stock giving us a highly profitable buy trade, hitting the $44.00 long-term Target: This time our focus is on the shorter term 1D time-frame where the stock is forming a Bullish Megaphone similar to the one in January - March 2024. Currently the price is pulling back (blue circle) and the symmetric pattern of mid March 2024 suggests that it should now rebound towards the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are turning bullish mid-session, targeting $44.00 (above Fib 2.0 and below Resistance 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:BACLong
by TradingShot
PayPal (PYPL): Elliott Wave update - final target in sightSince our entry in PayPal, the stock has performed exceptionally well, respecting the Elliott wave structure and currently providing us with a return of over 35%. This price action demonstrates how effectively PayPal follows the Elliott wave count, reinforcing our bullish outlook. We have now set our stop loss at break even, allowing us to safeguard our gains while continuing to benefit from potential upward movement. During the recent wave (4), we chose not to enter, but it's important to note that the price respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level precisely, indicating a strong likelihood that similar levels will be respected in future corrections. PayPal is currently advancing through wave (5), and we anticipate this wave to conclude soon. Our target for the larger wave (iii) stands at $81, with wave (5) potentially reaching up to $84. However, there is a possibility that wave (5) may conclude before reaching the wave (iii) target. Therefore, we will closely monitor the situation, keeping our alerts ready to react as needed. Once PayPal moves into the $81 target area, we will look to secure additional profits. Should the price action align with our projections, we will consider re-entering at wave (iv) for further opportunities. Until then, we let our position continue running.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
$NNENASDAQ:NNE Graph illustration in practice: It's not very clean when there is high volatility, but the principle remains the same. First bullish leg of more than 30% (here +100%), higher lows, volatility contraction, price riding the moving averages (-> the Fork @Toto), formation of a tight base -> pattern like RDM or VCP 🔥🔥 The difference between a pattern that works and one that doesn't lies in what fuels it. We observe this with a change in volume behavior: large buyer volumes and low seller volumes. In this case, the fuel is investors' interest in new AI technology.
NASDAQ:NNELong
by NicolasPT1
JPM: Overbought on 1M. Buying becomes risky now.JP Morgan is almost overbought on its 1M technical outlook (RSI = 69.452, MACD = 20.800, ADX = 54.049), trading very close to the top of the 12 year Channel Up. Being overbought on the wider/ longest timeframe available, indicates trend exhastion and a potential bearish reversal. Basically, we continue to use the same pattern that helped us get a strong buy last time and this time it shows that the last two times the 1M RSI was this overbought, the stock pulled back to at least the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Consequently we expect a lengthy but relatively controlled correction to start in the coming candles to test the 0.236 Fib and approach the 1M MA50 (TP = 187.00). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:JPMShort
by InvestingScope
1
NETFLIX Earnings is setting it up for $840.Netflix (NFLX) is already one of the big winners of the earnings season as it announced Q3 results that exceeded expectations and saw the price up by more than +11.00% on Friday. Even technically that is a big win as the rebound came from a Thursday test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the first in 2 months (since August 14). The stock has been trading within a Channel Up for a whole year (since the October 18 2023 Low) and now has the perfect fundamental excuse to aim higher. The 1D RSI shows a similar pattern so all previous bottoms with the Channel Up (Aug 05 2024, April 22 2024, January 17 2024, October 18 2023) so either a 3.0 Fibonacci extension or a +25% rise is expected. This time both happen to be just over $840.00, so we can claim that this is a reasonable target to aim for during this Bullish Leg. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NFLXLong
by TradingShot
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) AnalysisCompany Overview: SoFi Technologies NASDAQ:SOFI has been on an impressive growth trajectory, with its member base increasing by over 40% year-over-year to reach 8.8 million as of Q2 2024. This significant expansion underscores SoFi's ability to not only acquire new members but also retain and cross-sell to its user base, positioning the company as a major player in the fintech space. Key Catalysts: Product Mix Shift: The strategic shift from a reliance on lending products to a broader array of financial services products—which now outpace lending offerings—boosts margins and improves the lifetime value of SoFi’s customers. This diversification strengthens the company's business model by lowering its dependence on traditional loans. Earnings Momentum: SoFi has consistently outperformed earnings expectations, evidenced by 11 upward revisions in the last 90 days. This signals strong financial management and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive further investor confidence. Growing Member Base: SoFi's ability to grow its member base at a 40% annual rate is a clear sign of the company’s competitive advantage in the fintech space, particularly through the seamless cross-selling of products across its ecosystem. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on SOFI above $9.00-$10.00, as the company’s ability to grow its member base and shift to higher-margin products sets the stage for sustained growth and stock appreciation. Upside Potential: Our upside target for SOFI is $15.00-$16.00, driven by strong earnings performance, a diversified product mix, and expanding membership, all of which contribute to improving financial metrics and stock valuation. 🚀 SOFI—Fintech Leader on a High-Growth Path. #Fintech #FinancialServices #EarningsOutperformance
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by Richtv_official
$NQ outlook headed into OCT. 21 WEEKMarket structure still shows us that it is bullish based on Technicals. No catalyst yet for a big bearish move/correction/pullback. Friday ended as an inside bar /1 / harami. Means an explosive move is coming. Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday. The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs. Rejection off the order blocks from April time frame and the SEPT bounce off the imbalance created in AUG. There's no real catalyst 'yet' for a big bearish move. I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ Similar to my NASDAQ:QQQ post a week ago, price is still respecting the upward trendline which is now annotated with the green triangle. Watch for price for the rest of OCT attempt to take out ATH (Liquidity) at 20983.75 and potentially reverse/stall at 21,000. Why that number? Psychological level along with where many algos most likely set their orders along with those who went short at ATH set their stops ABOVE entry. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE but an OPINION. #SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SADnation
$SPY Outlook for OCT 21, 2024AMEX:SPY headed into this week is an inside bar / 1 / harami. Means an explosive move is coming. Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday. The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs. There's no real catalyst ' yet ' for a big bearish move. I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ There still a GAP downside that was not completely filled last week. #SPY is in this rising wedge pattern and been respecting the TL (Green/Red). The pivot for SPY will be 583.99 - 584.55. If the bulls hold above that, you will see 585.39 get taken and then potentially 586.12. Failure by the bears to stop the move up and 587/587.35/588 will be on the path. If the bears take control and break the pivot zone, then you will see 583.67 / 583.2 / 582.6 / 582.33 and 581.82 / 581.5 / 580.9 Market Structure starts to change with a break of 582.16. A true MSS comes at 565 break. Keep in mind, there is a divergence between NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE! #SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
SWING IDEA - CAPRI GLOBAL CAPITALCapri Global Capital , a prominent non-banking financial company (NBFC), is showing technical indicators that suggest a promising swing trading opportunity. Reasons are listed below : 200 Zone is a Strong Support Zone : The 200 level has been established as a strong support zone, providing a solid base for potential upward movement. Bullish Engulfing on Daily Timeframe : The formation of a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart indicates strong buying pressure and suggests potential for further upward movement. Support at 50 EMA : The stock is finding support at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing the bullish sentiment and providing a strong support level. 0.618 Fibonacci Support : The stock is finding support at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, a key area where prices often bounce back, indicating potential for an upward move. Increase in Volumes : A noticeable increase in trading volumes confirms the strength of the price move and indicates growing investor interest. Target - 250 // 290 Stoploss - weekly close below 197 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:CGCLLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
SWING IDEA - EQUITAS SMALL FINANCE BANKEquitas Small Finance Bank , a leading small finance bank in India, is showing promising signs for a potential swing trade. Reasons are listed below : 75 Zone as a Strong Support Zone : The 75 level has proven to be a solid support zone, providing a strong foundation for a potential upward move. Bullish Hammer on Weekly Timeframe : The formation of a bullish hammer on the weekly chart, which also engulfed the previous week's candle, indicates strong buying pressure and a potential reversal from the support level. 0.5 Fibonacci Support : The stock is currently resting at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a key area where buyers often step in to push the price higher. Gradual Uptick in Volumes : An increasing volume trend suggests growing investor interest, further supporting the potential for a bullish move. Target - 95 // 105 // 115 Stoploss - weekly close below 72 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
NSE:EQUITASBNKLong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
3
Titagarh Rail systems catching the train. Titagarh Rail Systems Ltd. operates as a holding company, which engages in the manufacture and sale of freight wagons, passenger coaches, and steel castings. It operates through the following segments: Freight Rolling Stock, Passenger Rolling Stock, Shipbuilding, and Others. The Others segment includes miscellaneous items like specialized equipment's for defence, bridge girders, tractors, and others. Titagarh Rail Systems Ltd CMP is 1197.50. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Rising Net Cash Flow and Cash from Operating activity, Annual Profit Growth higher than Sector Profit Growth AND Strong Annual EPS Growth. The Negative aspects of the company are High PE (PE=55.3), High promoter stock pledges AND Companies seeing significant coronavirus impact. Entry can be taken after closing above 1283. Targets in the stock will be 1338, 1509 AND 1596. The long-term target in the stock will be 1710, 1795 AND 1876. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 1049. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:TITAGARHLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
1
Kopran can climb further. Kopran Ltd. is a holding company, which engages in the manufacturing of pharmaceuticals and related products. It operates through the following business units: Formulations, and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients. The firm's products include Amyn, Lokit, and Ciproquin. Kopran Ltd CMP is 320. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding, Annual Profit Growth higher than Sector Profit Growth AND Mutual Funds Increased Shareholding in Past Month. The Negative aspects of the company are Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash AND Stocks in the sell zone based on days traded at current PE and P/BV. Entry can be taken after closing above 321. Targets in the stock will be 330 and 342. The long-term target in the stock will be 352 AND 368. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 291. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:KOPRANLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
SMCI at a Critical Support: Will Buyers Return?In the daily time frame, SMCI is approaching a key support zone, highlighted in green. This area previously acted as strong resistance, with several attempts to break above it. Although the price hasn’t returned to this zone yet, I believe once it does, buyers could step in again. This level has proven significant before, and if the price revisits this support, it could present a potential buying opportunity. Keep an eye on this zone, as it may signal a shift in momentum if buyers come back. This version reflects that the price hasn’t yet revisited the support zone.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by WaveRiders2
Walt Disney Co | DISThe Walt Disney Company is reportedly exploring options to sell or find a joint venture partner for its India digital and TV business, reflecting the company's ongoing strategic evaluation of its operations in the region. The talks are still in the early stages, with no specific buyer or partner identified yet. The outcome and direction of the process remain uncertain. Internally, discussions have commenced within Disney's headquarters in the United States as executives deliberate on the most viable course of action. These deliberations signify the company's willingness to adapt and optimize its business operations to align with changing market dynamics. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 11 that Disney had engaged with at least one bank to explore potential avenues for assisting the growth of its India business while sharing the associated costs. This approach suggests a proactive stance by the company to explore partnerships or arrangements that can drive growth while minimizing financial burdens. While it is too early to ascertain the exact direction this exploration will take, the developments in Disney's India business warrant attention, as they may shape the future landscape of the company's presence in this all-important region. The ongoing shift from traditional TV to streaming has placed Disney and its competitors in a costly and transformative phase. As part of this transition, Disney is actively cutting costs amid macroeconomic challenges that have impacted its advertising revenue and subscriber growth. CEO Bob Iger has been at the forefront of these changes, and his contract was recently extended through 2026 to allow him sufficient time to make transformative changes while strengthening the bench with future leaders of the company. One of the key considerations for Disney is evaluating its portfolio of TV networks, including ABC and ESPN. Bob Iger has expressed a willingness to be expansive in assessing the traditional TV business, leaving open the possibility of selling certain networks while retaining others acknowledging that networks like ABC may not be core to Disney's new business model. ESPN, as a cable TV channel, is being approached differently. Disney is open to exploring strategic partnerships, such as joint ventures or offloading ownership stakes, to navigate the challenges faced by the sports network. CEO Iger, who had previously expressed pessimism about the future of traditional TV, has found the situation to be worse than anticipated since his return to Disney. Although the linear networks segment, which accounts for Disney's TV properties such as ABC, National Geographic, FX, and FreeForm, has struggled to grow in the recent past, this segment is still an important part of the company's business, which is evident from the positive operating income reported by this segment in fiscal 2022. As below data reveals, the DTC business and content licensing made operating losses in FY 2022 which were offset by the operating income reported by linear networks. For this reason, investors will have to closely monitor a potential sale of TV assets to evaluate the impact of such a decision on Disney's profitability. The broadcasting landscape is experiencing a significant shift, with uncertainties surrounding its future and the changing nature of consumer preferences. While linear television channels are not expected to disappear immediately, their consumption continues to decline as viewers increasingly favor OTT platforms. This transition represents a fundamental trend shaping the industry. In terms of business models, subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services will continue to grow with targeted advertising. As the ascent of streaming video continues, cable, satellite, and internet TV providers in the United States faced their most significant subscriber losses to date in the first quarter of 2023. Analyst estimates indicate a collective shedding of 2.3 million customers during this period. Consequently, the total penetration of pay-TV services in occupied U.S. households, including internet-based services like YouTube TV and Hulu, dropped to its lowest point since 1992, standing at 58.5%, according to Moffett's calculations. In Q1, pay-TV services in the U.S. witnessed a nearly 7% decline in customers compared to the previous year, with cable TV operators experiencing a 9.9% decline, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network registered subscriber losses of 13.4%. Virtual MVPDs, which are multichannel video programming distributors, also suffered significant losses, shedding 264,000 customers during the quarter. Comcast, the largest pay-TV provider in the country, lost 614,000 video customers in Q1, and Google's YouTube TV was the only tracked provider to experience subscriber growth, adding an estimated 300,000 subscribers during the period. These trends illustrate the challenges faced by the pay-TV industry, with factors like increasing sports-broadcast fees driving retail prices higher, leading to cord-cutting and subsequent price adjustments by distributors. By 2026, e-Marketer predicts that the number of non-pay TV households will surpass pay TV households by over 25 million. In efforts to achieve profitability in the streaming business, Disney has implemented significant cost-cutting measures, including saving $5.5 billion through cost reductions and layoffs, and a focus on making Disney+ and Hulu more profitable. Disney aims to enhance Hulu integration, seeing it as a vital component of the company's transition from TV to a streaming-only model. Discussions are also underway for Disney to acquire Comcast Corporation's (CMCSA) stake in Hulu, as Disney currently holds 66% ownership. The company believes that the integration of Hulu and Disney+ will bolster the streaming business and contribute to its profitability. While the negotiations with Comcast over Hulu's valuation are ongoing, the combined offering of Disney+ and Hulu is expected to be available to consumers by the end of the calendar year. Although Disney's plans for ESPN+ and the fate of its other cable channels, such as the Disney Channel, remain uncertain, Bob Iger expects ESPN to eventually move to a streaming-only model, acknowledging the disruptive nature of the traditional TV business model. The discussions surrounding Walt Disney's TV and streaming business in India come at a critical juncture for the company, as it grapples with intensified competition and significant challenges in the market. The emergence of Reliance Industries' JioCinema streaming platform has posed a considerable threat to Disney's dominance, especially after Reliance secured digital rights for the highly popular Indian Premier League cricket tournament. This strategic move by Reliance, which offered free access to the tournament earlier this year, caused a substantial decline in Disney+ Hotstar's subscribers, a popular streaming service under Disney's India business. Additionally, Viacom18, which is backed by Reliance and Paramount Global (PARA), made a significant impact on Disney's market position in India. Through its partnership with Warner Bros, Viacom18 secured content rights to popular shows on HBO including Succession, previously aired on Disney's platform. This collaboration forms a formidable alliance challenging Disney's dominance in the Indian market. Reliance's freemium model poses the most significant threat to Disney's current position. By offering content for free on its streaming platform, JioCinema attracted a substantial number of subscribers through the broadcast of IPL. With its ample cash reserves, Reliance has the advantage of focusing on subscriber growth without immediately focusing on monetization strategies. The loss of streaming rights for the IPL, combined with a subsequent decline in paid subscribers, had a profound impact on Disney's reputation in India in the first quarter of this year, which could very well be the most challenging Q1 Disney has had in India for a long time. A report on video consumption trends in India by Media Partners Asia sheds light on the dynamic landscape of the online video sector in India. For the 15 months that ended in March 2023, total consumption across the online video sector reached a staggering 6.1 trillion minutes. During this period, Disney+ Hotstar emerged as the dominant player in premium VOD, capturing 38% of viewing time. The report attributes Hotstar's success to its strong sports offerings and the depth of its Hindi and regional entertainment content. During the survey period, Zee and Sony together held a 13% share of the Indian premium video sector viewing time. While the two companies are expected to merge pending regulatory approval, they are projected to operate independently for another year, benefiting from strong engagement across sports as well as regional, local, and international content. Prime Video and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) collectively accounted for a 10% share of viewership in the premium VOD category. Prime Video also garnered a significant portion of viewership from regional Indian titles. The report emphasizes that local content dominates premium VOD viewership, particularly outside the sports category, while international content leads paid tiers. Catch-up TV is prevalent in the free tier across freemium streaming platforms. Although Disney was the clear winner in 2022, this report highlights a significant shake-up in the market brought about by the transformation of JioCinema. JioCinema, which previously held a mere 2% share of the premium video market, experienced a major upswing in growth since April. This surge can be attributed to JioCinema's decision to offer free live streaming of the popular IPL cricket tournament, a property that was previously exclusive to Disney-owned media in India. Despite technical glitches impacting user experience, JioCinema witnessed a more than 20-fold increase in consumption in April 2023, enabling it to dominate the premium VOD category. The report raises questions about JioCinema's ability to sustain this growth and scale in the absence of IPL action after June 2023. That being said, this could be an early indication of growth challenges Disney-owned brands may face in India. Star India, now known as Disney Star following the rebranding last year, is expected to experience a revenue drop of around 20% to less than $2 billion for the fiscal year ending September 2023. Additionally, EBITDA is projected to decline by approximately 50% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Hotstar is estimated to lose 8 to 10 million subscribers in its fiscal third quarter as well. Given the current scenario, finding an outright buyer for Disney's India business is expected to be challenging. When Disney acquired the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox in 2019, the enterprise value of the Indian business was estimated at around $15-16 billion. This high valuation, coupled with the intense competition and declining subscriber base, presents a complex landscape for potential buyers or partners. I believe Disney stock is attractively valued today given that the company's streaming business has a long runway for growth internationally while its brand assets will continue to drive revenue higher. As an investor, I am both concerned and curious about what the future holds for Disney's linear networks segment. Going by the recent remarks of CEO Iger, major changes are on their way. A strategic decision to divest non-core assets, in my opinion, will trigger a positive response from the market. That being said, a major divestment of TV assets could materially impact the company's profitability in the next 3-5 years until its streaming business scales enough to replace lost revenue from the linear networks segment. Investors will have to closely monitor new developments to identify a potential inflection point in Disney's story.
NYSE:DIS
by moonypto
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