99% of people buying $NVDA don't understand this:🚨99% of people buying NASDAQ:NVDA don't understand this:
NASDAQ:GOOGL : “We’re boosting AI capex by $10B.”
Wall Street: “Cool, that’s like $1B or 0.06 per share for $NVDA.”
So from $170.50 at the time of news to $170.56 right?
No.
NASDAQ:NVDA trades at 98× earnings. So that $0.06? Turns into $6.00
Why?
Because people are expecting that to be happening every single year for 98 years and they're paying All of it Today in Full amount.
So NASDAQ:NVDA will get $1B more per year. But NASDAQ:NVDA price per share already increased by $100B in past 2 days 😂
Then it crashes 40% and everyone is wondering why.
Stocks
JOHNSON & JOHNSON Sell opportunity on a Double Resistance.It's been 9 months (October 11 2024, see chart below) since our last Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) analysis, where we gave a very timely sell signal that surgically hit our $141.00 Target:
The Channel Down has since broke to the upside and a new Higher Lows structure has emerged but with a clear Resistance Zone for the time being. At the same time, the price is also just below the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the September 04 2024 High.
With the 1D RSI overbought (same as on February 25 2025), we don't give the upside much room to go, so we turn bearish here, targeting the 0.382 Fibonacci extension and Higher Lows trend-line at $160.00.
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MARA: shoulders done, now walk toward the targetOn the daily chart, MARA completed a textbook inverse Head & Shoulders reversal with a clear breakout above the descending trendline. A corrective pullback followed, and the price is now heading into the key buy zone at 15.21–15.77 - aligning with the 0.72 and 0.79 Fibonacci retracements, and the upper boundary of the broken channel. This is the area to watch for a potential continuation of the bullish impulse.
Volume on the breakout was above average, confirming strong buyer interest. The EMAs are trending below the price, supporting the upward structure. The first target is located at 21.57 (previous resistance), with a potential extension to 28.77 (Fibonacci 1.618).
Fundamentally, MARA remains highly correlated with BTC and crypto sentiment. As interest returns to crypto-related assets due to ETF flows and possible Fed easing, mining stocks like MARA gain attention. Recent reports also show improved production efficiency and lowered costs - a tailwind for bulls.
Tactically, the best setup would be a confirmed reaction from the buy zone — whether a strong candlestick formation, volume surge, or reclaim of a key level. If that happens, aiming for 21.57 and 28.77 becomes a solid plan.
The pattern played out - now it's time for the market to walk the talk.
EUR/USD - Bullish parallel channel formation!The EUR/USD currency pair is currently exhibiting a bullish market structure on the 4-hour timeframe, moving steadily within a well-defined ascending parallel channel. Price action has consistently bounced between the lower and upper boundaries of the channel, with each dip finding support at the lower trendline and each rally meeting resistance near the upper trendline. This ongoing pattern suggests a strong and orderly bullish trend as the pair continues to make higher highs and higher lows within the channel.
The Market’s Upward Momentum
One notable feature of this trend is the recurring formation of 4-hour Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) during each upward leg. These FVGs act as temporary inefficiencies in the price movement, which the market consistently returns to fill before resuming its bullish momentum. As shown in the chart, the EUR/USD has filled multiple FVGs over the past week. Today, the pair once again retraced to fill a newly formed 4H FVG and has since continued its move higher. This repeated behavior reinforces the strength of the uptrend, as the market efficiently corrects itself and then propels further in the direction of the overall trend.
Bullish Outlook
From a bullish perspective, the key level to watch is the horizontal resistance zone around 1.1766. A confirmed break and hold above this level would signal a strong continuation of the current uptrend. Should the price sustain itself above this level, it could initiate a renewed push toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel, potentially targeting levels near 1.1820 and beyond. This scenario would confirm market confidence and open the door for further gains.
Bearish Risk
On the flip side, the bearish case would involve a false breakout above the 1.1766 resistance level, followed by a sharp rejection and a break below the rising lower trendline of the channel. Such a move would invalidate the current structure and shift the bias to the downside. In that case, the 4-hour FVG located between approximately 1.1710 and 1.1740 will act as a critical support zone. If this area fails to hold, it could trigger a deeper retracement and potentially lead to a more prolonged bearish correction.
Final thoughts
In summary, the EUR/USD is currently respecting a bullish parallel channel on the 4-hour timeframe, with upward moves consistently leaving and then filling 4H FVGs before continuing higher. The 1.1766 level is pivotal, a sustained break above it favors continued bullish momentum, while a rejection and breakdown from the channel could signal a bearish reversal. Traders should closely monitor price behavior around this key level and the integrity of the ascending channel to anticipate the next significant move.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support. If you enjoyed this analysis, make sure to follow me so you don't miss the next one. And if you found it helpful, feel free to drop a like 👍 and leave a comment 💬, I’d love to hear your thoughts!
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
🏔️ Copper Market Flashpoint
Following President Trump’s announcement of steep copper tariffs (15–50% range), U.S. copper futures surged, then sharply reversed. Inventory arbitrage between CME and LME markets surged, distorting pricing dynamics and triggering concern over metal market stability.
🇪🇺 EU–China Summit Signals Trade Reset
EU leaders concluded their 25th summit with China, fostering deeper economic and strategic ties. Observers expect follow-up on mutual trade agreements, particularly regarding tech and sustainability sectors.
🌍 EM Equity Rally Consolidates Gains
Emerging markets continue to outperform global equities in 2025—with MSCI EM up ~18% vs. S&P 500. Analysts highlight strong opportunities in AI/fintech stocks in China and Latin America, suggesting further rotations out of U.S. markets.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, July 25:
8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June):
Forecast shows a sharp drop (~–10%), following a ~16% gain in May—signaling possible cooling in business-related equipment purchases.
10:00 AM ET – U.S. Imports of Steel Products (June):
Trade-data release monitoring steel flows amid evolving tariff frameworks.
All Day – Corporate Earnings Reports:
Companies such as First Financial Bancorp (FFBC), HCA, AON, Charter, and others report earnings. Outlooks may influence small- to mid-cap sentiment.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #data #earnings #commodities #EM #technicalanalysis
COSTCO Looking for a bottom to fuel rally to $1250.Last time we looked at Costco (COST) was 6 months ago (January 21) when we gave the most optimal buy signal exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up at the time, easily hitting our $1045 Target:
Since then, the stock has entered a new Accumulation Phase in the form of a Triangle and this week broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is where its previous bottom (Higher Low) was formed.
The last similar Triangle pattern was formed straight after the May 16 2022 market bottom and once it broke upwards it led to a massive rally. Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar.
Our Target is $1250, just below the 1.786 Fibonacci extension.
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META Slows Down For A Correction Within UptrendMeta has seen a strong recovery recently, but barely retested February highs around 740, from where we can see some nice pullback, but it appears corrective, since it’s unfolding in three waves, and forming a potential bull flag — likely wave 4. A breakout above the downward channel on a daily close could signal the start of wave 5 and a push to new highs.
However, keep a close eye on the 666.1; a break below this level would invalidate the bullish view and suggest a deeper consolidation phase may follow.
Highlights:
Direction: Up (pending breakout)
Structure: Wave 4 bull flag; wave 5 possible soon
Support: 680 / 690
$RIOT Targets hitNASDAQ:RIOT has hit my take profit target at the High Volume Node and R3 daily pivot where it has found resistance.
Wave III appears to be complete with wave IV expected targets being the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement, also the daily pivot point and ascending daily 200EMA, $10.24.
Analysis is invalidated if we continue to the upside with a new swing high. RSI is overbought no bearish divergence.
Safe trading
$IREN More downside after huge rally!NASDAQ:IREN is printing bearish divergence on the daily RSI at all tie high resistance.
An Elliot wave motif wave appears complete and wave looks underway with a shallow target of the daily pivot, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and ascending daily 200EMA.
The daily red wick after printing a 20% start to the day is reminiscent of a blow off top in this asset trapping newbs with FOMO price discovery pump. Market behaviour in action!
Analysis is invalidated if price returns to all time high.
Safe trading
$COIN Wave 4 pullback?NASDAQ:COIN had a tremendous run, a text book Elliot wave 3 but has confirmed bearish divergence on the daily RSI.
The trend is strong so wave 4 could be shallow, only reaching the previous all time high, High Volume Node and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and daily pivot point between $322-345
Further decline brings up the High Volume Node support at 0.382 Fib retracement and ascending daily 200EMA! Also a highly probable scenario!
Long term outlook remains around $600 target
Safe trading.
$BTDR Closed above resistance!NASDAQ:BTDR Bitdeer closed above major resistance yesterday, despite BTC and alt coins having a bearish day, triggering our long signal in the Weekly Trade signals substack.
I am looking for price to start to accelerate in wave 3 and resistance now support to hold. If BTC reverses it will add additional tailwinds with a target of the major resistance above the R5 daily pivot $24
Safe trading
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 U.S.–EU & U.S.–Japan Trade Optimism Lifts Sentiment
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record-high closes on July 23, fueled by optimism over a potential U.S.–EU trade deal mirroring the U.S.–Japan framework, with the EU-set tariff on autos potentially halved to 15%
💵 Dollar Retreats, Yields Climb
As markets shifted toward risk assets, U.S. Treasury yields increased and gold softened, while the dollar eased—highlighting growing confidence in trade-driven growth news
🏦 Fed Independence Under Pressure—But No July Cut Expected
A Reuters poll shows economists see heightened political pressure on the Fed jeopardizing its independence, though the consensus remains that rates will stay unchanged this month
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Thursday, July 24:
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly tally of new unemployment benefit applications—key indicator of labor-market conditions.
10:00 AM ET – New Residential Sales (June)
Tracks signed contracts for new homes, offering insight into housing demand under tightening mortgage rates.
All Day – Trade Headlines & Fed Watch
Continued focus on U.S.–EU trade developments and any follow-up to Fed independence concerns from policy circles.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #trade #economy #Fed #housing #jobs #technicalanalysis
Altcoin Season Has Started. And A Quick Look At The Stock MarketHey Traders,
Time for me to catch you up on the latest price action in both the stock market and crypto as well as touch upon a few changes on my platform and subscription services and what I plan for the future.
Timestamps:
00:00 | Housekeeping - site changes, etc
04:35 | BTC Dominance
06:45 | DXY Dollar Chart
10:00 | SPY
14:25 | BTC Bitcoin Chart
15:45 | Bitcoin Liquidity Heatmap
17:30 | Solana
19:05 | Ethereum
20:20 | Crypto & Stock Trackers
24:25 | My Indicator
26:10 | Where I Went Wrong & How I Plan To Course Correct
✌️ Stew
XAU/USD – Ranging Market Prepping for Breakout?Gold has been ranging for the next couple months and usually I am out of the market during the months of April Through July because historically these are not my best months trading XAU/USD. However you will see me posting a lot more in the coming months because my best months historically are August - December where the market really cranks up with some bigger moves.
So in a summarized version below you will find what it is that i am looking at with gold.
Gold (XAU/USD) has remained locked in a defined consolidation range between 3,250 (support) and 3,450–3,502 (resistance) since early April. Price has printed multiple internal falling wedge formations within this zone, indicating compression before potential expansion.
🔍 Technical Overview
Range Duration: ~3.5 months
Key Range:
Support: 3,250
Resistance: 3,450–3,502
Compression Patterns: Multiple falling wedges breaking upwards inside the range, hinting at bullish pressure.
Touch Confirmations: Both range boundaries have been tested multiple times, reinforcing validity (per Multi-Touch Confirmation).
Contextual Bias: Seasonally, August–December tends to be a high-volatility trending period for Gold.
🎯 Trade Plan
Inside Range:
Maintain neutral bias.
Execute range-to-range scalps/swing setups with clear invalidation zones.
Avoid trading mid-range.
Breakout Scenario (Bullish):
A clean close above 3,502 triggers breakout watch.
Ideal setup: Retest + 15-min flag → long continuation.
Potential upside target: ~3,700 (range height extension).
Breakdown Scenario (Bearish):
Loss of 3,250 opens door to bearish continuation.
Look for clean liquidity sweep or structure flip before committing.
Initial downside target: 3,100 zone.
🛡️ Risk Notes
Avoid third-touch entries in aggressive momentum unless followed by flag formation.
Remain disciplined with the 80/20 confluence rule — don't let perfectionism delay entries.
Always execute with pre-trade checklist and defined R:R profile.
✅ Summary
Gold is at a pivotal point. The confluence of a tight multi-month range, internal compression patterns, historical breakout timing, and validated levels builds a compelling case for an imminent expansion move. Remain patient, avoid anticipation, and react to confirmed structure and price behavior.
Buying TMO sharesI am buying TMO shares according to my strategy for stocks, ETFs, and precious metals.
This strategy shows 100% performance on this stock on a weekly timeframe. Therefore, I am investing a small percentage of my deposit in it and will wait for it to perform. I hope that everything will work out this time too :)
Of course, the price may go even lower, but I will buy more if the strategy shows a buy signal. In the long run, I think there will be an excellent profit.
DYOR
EXXON MOBIL Critical crossroads.Exxon Mobil (XOM) has been trading within a Channel Down since the June 17 2024 Low and just recently on the July 11 2025 High, it made a Lower High pattern similar to November 22 2024.
As long as the price trades below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), we expect to start the new Bearish Leg and test at least Support 1 (97.85).
If however it breaks above the 1D MA200 it will invalidate all prior Lower High patterns, and will most likely follow the (blue) Channel Up to break above the Channel Down. In that case, we will be targeting Resistance 1 (120.00).
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A Sleeping Giant in the Energy Sector?While everyone’s chasing the next hot AI stock, a quiet opportunity might be taking shape in the energy sector; and it could be a big one.
🔋 As AI data centers explode in size and number, the demand on our power grid is rising fast. Nuclear is still years away, and renewables are struggling to scale in time. That leaves oil and gas as the most reliable players; and one U.S. company may be perfectly positioned to ride that wave.
📊 Technical Analysis
NASDAQ:PROP PROP has been in a steady downtrend, moving within a falling wedge pattern (marked in green). Right now, it’s retesting the bottom of that wedge, typically where things get oversold.
Even more interesting, PROP bounced off a major monthly demand zone last week, a signal that buyers may be stepping in.
In the short term, if the blue demand zone holds, we could see a push toward the $7 mark, which lines up with the top of the wedge.
But to really confirm a medium-term reversal, we’ll need a clean break above the $8.3 resistance. If that happens, the door could open to a rally toward $15, a key level from early 2024.
🛢️ Why PROP? A Hidden Play With Room to Run
Prairie Operating Co. (NASDAQ: PROP) isn’t your typical small-cap oil stock. They own 65,000 acres in Colorado’s DJ Basin and use modern drilling tech to stay lean and efficient. That means they can still make money even when oil prices dip.
As energy demand continues to climb, PROP could be sitting in the sweet spot , especially with the world so focused on tech stocks. But behind every AI boom is a growing energy need, and companies like PROP are the ones powering it.
One well-known Wall Street firm recently gave PROP a Buy rating with a $21.75 price target; that’s a potential 281% upside from where it stands today. And that’s not even counting the potential boost from energy-friendly policies under the current administration.
📌 One to Watch in 2025
PROP might just be one of the most under-the-radar energy plays going into the new year.
The biggest moves often start quietly; and this one has all the ingredients to surprise.
➡️ As always, speak with your financial advisor and do your own research before making any investment decisions.
📚 Always follow your trading plan => including entry, risk management, and trade execution.
Good luck!
All strategies are good, if managed properly.
~ Richard Nasr
XNCR 1D time to growth?XNCR: the uptrend hasn't started yet - but someone's quietly accumulating
XNCR spent nearly 4 months building a base and finally broke out of consolidation with a clear upward move. The pattern looks like a range with a narrowing triangle at the bottom — the breakout came with rising volume. Entry makes sense in the 9.00–9.20 zone on a retest. Volume profile and Fib levels confirm the importance of this area, plus there’s a clean support shelf at 9.00. The target is 15.65, which aligns with the height of the structure. The 200-day MA is still above price, but a push beyond 11.00 could open the door to acceleration.
Fundamentally, Xencor is a biotech company focused on monoclonal antibodies. After a tough 2023–2024 and cost reductions, the market is beginning to price in signs of recovery. Key partnerships remain intact, the pipeline is alive, and recent data for XmAb7195 was well received at industry events. Valuation remains low, and biotech ETF flows are slowly picking up.
Still a relatively low-volume name, but the structure is clean, the setup is readable, and fundamentals are turning. With a tight stop below 8.50, the risk-reward looks solid.