NIO (NIO): 55% Increase but Bearish Trends Still LoomA while back, we analyzed NIO, and recently, we’ve seen a considerable 55% increase in the stock price. However, despite this rise, nothing truly convinces us that this bearish trend has ended or that a sustainable upward movement is underway.
The critical factor here is that none of the key levels that need to be breached for a trend reversal have been crossed. Specifically, we’re looking at the current Wave ((iv)) level around $6.04. If this level isn’t breached, it’s likely that we could see further declines, possibly dipping into the $2.99 range—or even lower, potentially as far as $1. It may seem dramatic, but considering NIO has already dropped up to 62% since January, repeating such a decline isn’t out of the question.
In conclusion, the market remains quite weak, and we’re still cautious about the possibility of more significant setbacks. Always remember, it’s okay to stay on the sidelines and not invest in everything that catches your eye. 🤝
Stocks
PROCTER & GAMBLE is bullish bouncing on the 1D MA50.Procter and Gamble (PG) closed yesterday on a 3-day red streak and the 1D candle almost touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the short-term Support, which is intact since August 14. The stock has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 15 2023 Low, which is inside a wider Channel Up pattern since the 2022 market bottom.
The 1D MA50 is the first Support level of the 9-month Channel Up, with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) being the second (and last). The Higher Lows are priced below the 1D MA50 but currently we haven't completed most likely the Bullish Leg at hand.
Last April the price pulled back to the 0.382 Fib, which held and provided the final push to the -0.236 Fib extension for a Higher High. Currently the 1D MA50 test is also testing the 0.382. If it holds, we expect the stock to peak again near the -0.236 Fib extension. As long as it holds then, we remain bullish, targeting 182.00.
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FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming.
As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future.
Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
Telephone and Data Systems (TDS) Analysis Company Overview: Telephone and Data Systems NYSE:TDS is actively expanding its fiber and broadband infrastructure, positioning itself for future growth in a high-demand sector. The company’s recent investments are paying off, with steady growth in its service addresses and strong financial performance.
Key Catalysts:
Fiber Expansion: TDS added 28,000 marketable fiber addresses in Q1 2024, increasing its fiber footprint significantly. The company has grown its service addresses by 12% year-over-year, reaching 1.7 million addresses, a key driver of its future revenue growth.
CEO Confidence: CEO Leroy Carlson has expressed optimism regarding TDS’s growth prospects, particularly emphasizing the company's strategic investments in broadband infrastructure.
Financial Performance: In Q2, TDS demonstrated strong financial health, with ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) growth, better cost management, and higher free cash flow, all of which enhance its earnings potential in the coming quarters.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on TDS above the $19.00-$20.00 range. Upside Potential: The upside target for TDS is set at $30.00-$31.00, driven by its expanding fiber infrastructure, solid financial performance, and the strategic broadband investments that position the company for long-term growth.
📡 TDS—Leading the Fiber and Broadband Revolution. #FiberExpansion #BroadbandGrowth #TDSInvestments 💡
MASTERCARD short-term weakness is a buy opportunity. Target $515Mastercard (MA) gave us an excellent sell signal on our last call (April 02, see chart below), reaching our exact Target ($440.00) before turning sideways and reach this way a Higher Low:
That Higher Low was a bottom on the 2-year Channel Up pattern that has been dominating the long-term price action of the stock. As you can see it hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and has rebounded since, which is similar to the March 16 2023 Low.
The similarities are evident on this chart between the Bullish and Bearish Legs of the Channel Up and the Sine Waves help at giving us a sense of Highs and Lows. The 1D RSI sequences between the two main fractals are also similar and this shows that probably we are at a similar symmetrical level as on July 14 2023.
As a result, we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then final rally towards the elections for a Higher High around $515.00, which will be just below the -0.236 Fibonacci extension (similar to the September 14 2023 High). Then we expect the stock to yet again seek the bottom of the Channel Up near the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) at $460.00.
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The Global Liquidity Index is looking very interesting here.The GLI is looking very interesting at these levels. It's currently bouncing around within the Fibonacci retracement levels shown. Stocks and crypto usually perform better during times of increased liquidity for obvious reasons. Now that we are heading into a period where central banks around the world are propping up markets with freshly printed cash, we may see this index set a new high, which will be good for asset prices overall.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
3 Pro Tips for Managing Losing Trades,Risk, Emotions & StrategyManaging losing trades is an essential part of trading, whether you're involved in stocks, forex, or any other financial market, we have all heard traders say I haven't ever taken a loss before my strategy has 100% win rate blah blah ok really, even the best traders in the world take losses, as humans we naturally don't like to lose but in trading its a part of doing business. Here are three in-depth tips to help manage losing trades effectively:
### 1. ** Develop and Stick to a Risk Management Plan **
A risk management plan is your primary defence against significant losses. The key components include position sizing, setting stop-losses, and managing risk-reward ratios.
- ** Position Sizing **: Always ensure that you're not risking too much of your capital on a single trade. A common rule is to risk no more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any given trade. This way, even if you hit a streak of losses, your account can recover.
- ** Set Stop-Loss Orders **: A stop-loss is a predetermined point where you exit a trade to prevent further losses. This should be set based on your analysis and not emotions. Many traders use technical levels like support and resistance or a percentage-based rule (e.g., 2-5% below the entry price). However, it’s essential to place the stop at a level that aligns with market conditions, rather than placing it arbitrarily.
- ** Risk-Reward Ratio **: Aim for a risk-reward ratio that makes sense in the long term (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3), meaning that for every dollar you risk, you aim to gain two or three. This ensures that even with a lower win rate, your winning trades can outweigh your losses.
### 2. ** Detach from Emotional Biases **
Emotions like fear, greed, and frustration can cloud judgment, leading to poor decision-making during losing trades. Psychological discipline is crucial to protect against these common pitfalls.
- ** Avoid Chasing Losses **: After a losing trade, many traders try to "win back" what they lost quickly, often leading to overtrading or taking high-risk trades. This is called "revenge trading" and can exacerbate losses. Take a step back, assess the situation, and only enter new trades that meet your criteria.
- ** Accept Losses as Part of the Process **: Losing trades are inevitable. Successful traders view losses as an expense or cost of doing business. They understand that even the best trading strategies have losing streaks. Accepting this reality helps you avoid emotionally driven decisions.
- ** Maintain a Trading Journal **: Keeping track of both winning and losing trades can help you identify emotional patterns. Record why you took the trade, the results, and how you felt during the trade. This reflection can provide insight into emotional triggers and help you make more rational decisions in the future.
### 3. ** Adjust Your Strategy Based on Market Conditions **
Markets are dynamic and constantly changing. What works in one market environment may not work in another. Regularly review and adapt your trading strategy to current market conditions, particularly after losing trades.
- ** Assess Trade Context **: After each losing trade, conduct a post-trade analysis. Did the trade fail due to poor market conditions, execution errors, or a flaw in your strategy? Recognising these patterns can help you tweak your approach and avoid repeating the same mistakes.
- ** Diversify Your Strategy **: Relying too heavily on one trading approach or asset class can increase the likelihood of losses during unfavourable conditions. Consider diversifying your strategies (trend following, mean reversion, etc.) and the assets you trade. This spreads risk and can stabilise performance during market volatility.
- ** Cut Losses Early When Conditions Change **: If the market conditions that supported your trade change significantly, don’t hesitate to exit the trade, even before hitting your stop-loss. For example, news events or shifts in sentiment can render your trade idea invalid. Being flexible and willing to exit early when your initial reasoning no longer holds is essential.
By applying a robust risk management plan, controlling emotional biases, and regularly adapting your strategy to current market conditions, you can navigate and limit the damage of losing trades.
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed?
Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates.
Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%.
The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps.
First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record .
Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go?
What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18.
Better Safe Than Sorry?
A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs).
“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000.
Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut
Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house.
But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber.
The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc.
The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
ES, SPX - Santa Rally could trigger Cup & Handle patternA strong end to Q4
Window dressing by fund managers who were underweight equities
would trigger a cup handle pattern
breaking the trendline of the pattern is around 4600 on the #ES
I could also make an argument for HVF pattern we have a high 3 in place
A recession will no doubt rear it's head at some point ...
but a blow off top first to hand bears a beating is definitely a scenario I have shared before.
AMAZON SHORT FROM RESISTANCE|
✅AMAZON is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 191.75$
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 184.00$
SHORT🔥
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META: Targeting $700 at least by the end of the year.META platforms is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.256, MACD = 7.090, ADX = 26.657) as it is making a healthy rebound on the 1D MA50. The 1 year Channel Up is posting recurring phases inside it and at the moment we are on similar grounds as early December 2023. Even the 1D RSI is identical between phases. Technically that suggests that the Channel Up can top on a HH after a +92% rise from the bottom but having the 0.618 Fibonacci level as a clear Rising Resistance, we will settle for a TP = 700.00 by the end of the year.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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$USINTR -Fed Cuts Rates by 50 BPS ECONOMICS:USINTR
- The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 4.75%-5% in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks.
It is the first rate cut since March 2020 after holding it for more than a year at its highest level in two decades.
Will Feds decision of cutting 50bps tumble the markets in spite of fear for U.S and Global Markets indicating Recession brewing around the corner ?
Amazon (AMZN): Swing Trade & Chart Analysis UpdateTwo months ago, we anticipated a pullback to wave (2), and after a brief pump, we saw an immediate sell-off. The fascinating part? Amazon dropped 25% and reversed almost perfectly on the long-held trendline, which hasn’t been adjusted. It's incredible how simple technicals can sometimes work so well.
We've now pushed back into the $183-190 range. This could be a relief pump, likely short-lived. While we aren’t ruling out a rise above the current wave (1), we’re leaning toward a flat correction, as wave A was fast. If correct, we should turn soon and continue downward with a 5-wave structure into the 50-78.6% Fibonacci retracement target area.
No limit orders yet, but we're setting alerts to better time our entry. 🔥
Intel stock down 70%...opportunity?Good Morning Testosterone Traders,
Intel has been brought to my attention
Intel stock is down 70% from the pandemic era price of $67 per share , and now actively trading around $21 per share as of this posting.
I am confident to add Intel to my long-term portfolio.
Share your thoughts....
ORACLE Channel Up targeting $200.Oracle (ORCL) broke above its previous High last week and even though the current one is under a certain degree of volatility (reasonable due to the Fed), this confirmed the upward continuation of the trend.
Technically, the stock has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the September 2022 market bottom and after a prolonged test this year of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, it has started the new Bullish Leg with the current phase being the last one.
An ideal 1W RSI symmetry suggests that we might be printing a sequence similar to March - June 2023, which peaked after a +110% rise from its bottom.
As a result, we remain bullish on Oracle, targeting $200.00 by the end of the year.
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Meta (Facebook) Price AnalysisMeta’s price is approaching a key daily resistance level. If we get a breakout above this resistance, it could signal the start of a strong upward move, with potential to target the next r level.
Key points to watch:
Breakout above the daily resistance: This could lead to a continuation of the uptrend.
If the breakout happens, the price may target the next level on the chart.
It’s crucial to watch the price action closely to confirm the breakout!
AMD... Is it time to BUY?? YESSIR!!What are we looking at technically?
- The market is in an obvious uptrend
- A bullish BOS (break of structure)
- A retracement to the OTE (Optimal Trade Entry) fib levels between .705 - .786
- The bullish FVG is also aligned with the OTE levels for a confluence of support
- Price has formed a fractal low on the +FVG as price completed the External to Internal run on liquidity. Now comes the IRL back to the ERL move. The swing high at 227.30 is the target, as that is where the buy side liquidity is.
Fundamentally, the recent Amazon partnership is the latest move that will give AMD a huge boost. Not mention the AMD may become a buyer of INTEL's AI Fabric Chip.
Things are looking up for the organization.
What do you think?
It's a BUY for me.
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
JP MORGAN to rise at least +14% on this rally.We haven't looked into JP Morgan Chase (JPM) in almost 6 months (March 25, see chart below) and the excellent sell signal it gave us:
That was right at the top of its 2-year Channel Up. Right now we have the price rebounding an pricing a Higher Low on a shorter-term Channel Up since the March 25 High. Being still below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), gives time for an early buy.
The minimum % of a Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +14.07% so our Target is at $229.00 accordingly.
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SP500 Can Break To All-Time Highs After A Triangle ConsolidationBack in August the SP500 turned down for a deeper correction back to 5k area, at the same time when drop on all major indexes and some big cap names were pretty aggressive. However, there was a huge spike in VIX (not shown on this chart), so it must have been a lot of fear involved, which after initial selling shows extreme pessimism and that's when the market tends to stabilize, when least expected.
Well, what is most important is that we have seen some stabilization through most of the second part of August, but notice that the index did not reach new highs; it turned down at the start of the September, after moving up to 5655 area. So, we think that recent drop to 5400 area is actually subwave (C), ideally part of a complex correction, possibly a triangle in wave 4. Especially because of a recent turn up, that looks like a wave (D), so be aware of a slowdown in wave (E), which is still missing based on basic structure of a triangle pattern.
Anyhow, we think that sooner or later index will break to a new highs, ideally after FED rate decision.
Comprehensive Analysis of Chevron (CVX) - 16/09/2024Chevron (CVX) is an established energy company listed in the S&P 500 index.
Technical Analysis: I use moving averages as zones rather than lines. On the weekly chart, I applied the 200 EMA and 200 SMA, shading the area between them in orange to create a moving average zone. Currently, prices are finding support in this zone on the weekly chart.
Additionally, the $140 level acts as a demand zone and creates confluence.
On the daily chart, the ATR-based Keltner Channels are touching the lower band, indicating that downside volatility has reached its natural limits. There is also a bullish order block present.
On the 4-hour chart, I use the Inverse Fisher RSI. It filters out noise and provides fewer false signals compared to the standard RSI.
On the 1-hour chart, there is a noticeable decline in volume. Remember, without volume, it is difficult to break through support or resistance levels. From a technical standpoint, different timeframes are giving BUY signals.
Fundamental Analysis: The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.81, which is considered normal for the sector. In the last quarter, Chevron reported total revenue of $49.66 billion and a net profit of $4.43 billion, resulting in a 9% profit margin, which meets my no-loss rule.
Chevron has strong return on equity, and growth continues. Its current ratio is 1.16, meaning its short-term assets exceed its liabilities, indicating financial stability.
The price-to-book ratio is 1.60, which is excellent for a company of this size.
Chevron's total assets stand at $260 billion, while total liabilities are around $100 billion, meaning the company's debt-to-assets ratio is 38.51%, which is highly acceptable.
The company’s annual dividend yield is 4.55%, providing a potential bonus for long-term investors.
With CVX trading near its 52-week low and showing positive signals, it could be a good choice for portfolio managers.