Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.13.2024🔮
📅 Tue Jan 14
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core PPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.2%)
📊 PPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.4%)
📅 Wed Jan 15
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (prev: 0.3%)
📊 CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%)
📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%)
📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: -0.3 (prev: 0.2%)
⏰ 10:30am
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M
📅 Thu Jan 16
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% (prev: 0.2%)
📊 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.7%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 201K)
📊 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -7.0 (prev: -16.4)
📅 Fri Jan 17
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Building Permits: 1.46M (prev: 1.49M)
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
On a gap up, we will hold and run higher.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
The markets will get a few days of a bullish run.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
Stocks
"Market Corrections Ahead of the Presidential Inauguration."Corrections are a part of the stock market, signaling moments of weakness and opportunity. Here's a breakdown of the current market decline levels, ranging from the recent 5% pullback to the potential 20% drop that defines a bear market. These are the levels that I will be watching to let me know the momentum of this current shorter term downtrend.
Historical Context:
Over the past 50 years:
5-10% declines occur about 3-4 times per year on average.
10-20% corrections happen roughly every 2-3 years.
Full bear markets (20%+ declines) are rarer but significant, averaging one every 6-8 years.
This chart visualizes the current levels, helping traders and investors understand where we stand in historical context and where the market could potentially head.
Always remember that as hard as some corrections and declines can be, they all create buying opportunities for long term investors.
PGHL searching for a breakout.Procter & Gamble Health Limited is one of India’s largest VMS Companies manufacturing and marketing over-the-counter products, vitamins, minerals, and supplements products for a healthy lifestyle and improved quality of life.
Procter & Gamble Health Ltd. CMP is 5258.5. The Positive aspects of the company are Company with No Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge and Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin. The Negative aspects of the company are high Valuation (P.E. = 40.1).
Entry can be taken after closing above 5264. Targets in the stock will be 5333 and 5477. The long-term target in the stock will be 5565 and 5600+. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 5156 or 4956 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Delta Corp forming a bottom. Delta Corp. Ltd. (India) engages in the business of gaming and entertainment. The firm owns and manages casinos in India. It operates through the following segments: Gaming, Online Skill Gaming, and Hospitality.
Delta Corp. Ltd. (India) CMP is 118.93. The Positive aspects of the company are Moderate Valuation (P.E. = 20.5), Company with No Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, The Negative aspects of the company are Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash, Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects and De-growth in Revenue and Profit.
Entry can be taken after closing above 125.25. Targets in the stock will be 125, 129, 131 and 141. The long-term target in the stock will be 149 and 156. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 108 or 104 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. I or my clients might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 demonstrated a robust rally, exceeding a notable support level at 5872. This upward movement, however, resulted in a significant decline of the index to a critical support level at 5870 and lower lows. The volatility associated with this upward trend has introduced instability by destabilizing the bullish trend by flagging a new downward target marked at Outer Index Dip 5645. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent support levels of Mean Sup 5770 may trigger a substantial rally, potentially leading to the Mean Res at 5920, before plunging again to drop toward the targeted level of 5645.
What is an ETF? | The Modern Investor’s Secret WeaponWhy ETFs Are Like a Financial Swiss Army Knife ?
Warren Buffett famously stated that 90% of his wife’s inheritance would go into one simple investment: a low cost S&P 500 index fund, likely an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). ETFs, which now manage over $13 trillion in assets worldwide, combine the benefits of diversification and simplicity by bundling various stocks, bonds, or other assets into a single investment product.
1. Understanding ETFs
ETFs allow you to invest in a collection of assets that often track specific indices, sectors, or asset classes. Key benefits include:
- Diversification: Gain broad exposure without picking individual stocks.
- Liquidity: Trade ETFs like stocks throughout the trading day.
- Transparency: Daily disclosure of holdings ensures clarity about your investments.
Passive investing with ETFs has surged in popularity over active strategies due to lower fees and higher transparency
2. The Impact of Fees
While ETFs are cost effective, they do charge fees (expense ratios).Even small differences in fees can compound significantly over time, reducing long term returns:
- A 0.05% fee might cost $6K over 20 years on a $100K investment growing at 10% annually.
- A 1.00% fee could cost $112K over the same period.
Thus, keeping costs low is critical, especially for long-term investors.
What qualifies as “low cost”?
- Under 0.10%: Very low, often for funds tracking major indices.
- 0.10%–0.25%: Still affordable, typically for niche or strategy-focused ETFs.
- Above 0.50%: High; these funds require careful evaluation to justify their costs.
3. Leading ETF Providers
Major ETF providers dominate the industry:
- BlackRock (iShares): $3.2 trillion AUM, 452 funds, 0.30% average fees.
- Vanguard: $3 trillion AUM, 86 funds, 0.09% average fees, known for reinvesting profits to lower costs.
- State Street (SPDR): $1.5 trillion AUM, 158 funds, 0.27% average fees, creator of the first US-listed ETF (SPY)
4. Top ETFs by Popularity
Some ETFs hold significant assets due to their simplicity, reliability, and low fees :
- S&P 500 funds (SPY, VOO, IVV): Track the largest US companies
- Total US Market (VTI): Covers small, mid, and large-cap US stocks
- Thematic Funds (VUG, VTV): Focus on growth or value stocks
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): Heavy on tech companies like Apple and Microsoft
- Bond ETFs (BND, AGG): Represent the US investment-grade bond market
These ETFs serve as essential building blocks for diversified portfolios
5. Concentration in US Markets
US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are increasingly dominated by a handful of companies:
- The top 10 stocks make up 39% of SPY and 52% of QQQ.
- Companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon account for 34% of the S&P 500.
While this concentration can amplify gains in bull markets, it also increases vulnerability during downturns.
6. Exploring Specialized ETFs
Beyond broad-market funds, ETFs can target specific regions, sectors, or investment strategies. Choosing the right ETF mix depends on your financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. For simplicity, Warren Buffett recommends sticking to an S&P 500 index fund, while globally diversified options like VT are also available.
Final Takeaway
ETFs have revolutionized investing with their low costs, transparency, and accessibility. Whether you're a beginner or a seasoned investor, understanding what's inside the ETF and how it aligns with your strategy is key to building a successful portfolio.
Intel - This Support Has To Hold!Intel ( NASDAQ:INTC ) is retesting cucial support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After dropping an incredible -60% over the past couple of months, we are finally seeing some stabilization at the current support on Intel. It is also quite likely, that we will see another short covering rally, which would perfectly line up with a rejection away from the support area.
Levels to watch: $20, $26
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Market Volatility: The Trade That Taught Me PatienceEarly on, I thought I could outsmart market volatility. I’d jump into trades during big moves, hoping to catch the wave. But one day, it caught me instead.
The Day Volatility Got Me
I remember trading during a news event. The market spiked in my direction, and I got excited. I moved my stop-loss higher to give the trade “room to run.” Then, out of nowhere, the market reversed. My gains disappeared, and I ended up with a bigger loss than I could afford.
That trade taught me that volatility is unpredictable—and dangerous if you’re not prepared.
What Volatility Did to Me
-Tempted me to chase moves: I couldn’t resist jumping in, even when it wasn’t smart.
-Shook my confidence: The wild swings made me doubt my plan.
-Made me emotional: I panicked when things didn’t go as expected.
How I Fixed It
I stopped trading during news events unless it fit my strategy. I started using stop-losses and stuck to them, no matter what. And I reminded myself that no single trade is worth blowing my account.
What I Learned
-Volatility is part of trading—embrace it, but don’t let it control you.
-A solid strategy and risk management are your best defenses.
-Patience pays off when the market gets wild.
Struggling with market volatility? DM me—I’ve been there and can help. I also have a webinar this Sunday to help you tackle this challenge and stay grounded.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Trading Without a Plan: The Rollercoaster I Couldn’t Get OffWhen I started trading, I thought I didn’t need a plan. I’d jump into trades, figuring I’d make it work as I went along. For a while, I got lucky. But soon, luck ran out.
The Day I Realized I Needed a Plan
It hit me after a week of back-to-back losses. Every win I’d made was wiped out, and I didn’t understand why. I wasn’t following any rules—I was just hoping each trade would work out. And when it didn’t, I felt completely lost.
What Trading Without a Plan Did to Me
-My results were inconsistent: Some days were great, but most weren’t.
-I had no risk management: I’d risk too much on one trade and too little on another.
-I felt out of control: Without a plan, I was relying on gut feelings, and they failed me.
How I Fixed It
I decided to start over. I created a simple plan, back-tested it, and promised to stick to it. I set rules for how much I’d risk and reminded myself that small, consistent wins would add up over time.
What I Learned
-A plan gives you control and consistency.
-Risk management is key—it protects your account when trades don’t go your way.
-Trading without a plan isn’t trading. It’s gambling.
If you’re struggling with inconsistency or a lack of direction, send me a DM—I’ve been there and can help. I also have a webinar this Sunday to help you build a strategy and stay consistent.
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Trading Under Pressure: When Emotions Take OverThere was a time when the pressure of trading got to me. The market moved fast, and I felt like I had to act quickly or miss out. Fear, greed, and panic ruled my decisions instead of logic.
The Day Emotions Took Over
I remember one trade vividly. I jumped in because I didn’t want to miss what looked like a sure win. It turned against me, and instead of cutting my losses, I froze. I held on, hoping it would turn around—it didn’t.
By the end of the day, I wasn’t just frustrated with the loss. I was frustrated with myself.
What Emotional Trading Did to Me
-Clouded my thinking: Fear stopped me from taking good trades.
-Chased losses: Greed pushed me into setups that weren’t part of my plan.
-Made everything feel heavier: Every loss hit harder, and I felt stuck.
How I Turned It Around
I started journaling my trades to identify patterns. When I felt fear or greed, I’d take a moment to breathe and refocus. Slowly, I learned to trust my strategy, not my emotions.
What I Learned
-Trading is as much mental as it is technical.
-Reacting emotionally doesn’t work—it’s a fast track to mistakes.
-Staying calm and focused leads to better decisions.
If trading feels overwhelming or your emotions are taking control, you’re not alone. DM me—I’ve been there and can help. I also have a webinar this Sunday that will help you tackle this challenge.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
SP500: Watch This Key Support LevelStrong US jobs data was released today at 14:30 CET, showing 256K new jobs versus the expected 164K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected data could lead to more risk-off sentiment, as 97% of speculators now believe the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting. As a result, with stocks pulling back and the USD strengthening, even cryptocurrencies could face more weakness.
Remember, Powell delivered a hawkish cut back in December, when they noted that there can be less cuts in 2025 due to strong economic projections for 2025 which can bring infaltion back up so they must be carefull with rate decision. And this data today is reason why FED may stay on old, rahter than cut and why then stocks can resume even low, which have been in corrective territory since the last Fed meeting in December.The key focus now is identifying the next major support level for stocks. I believe that once stocks turn back to the upside, it could open opportunities across other assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Looking at the S&P 500 futures contract, there has been a slow but steady recovery since early November, following Trump’s win in the US elections. However, the market may attempt to liquidate latecomers who joined the stock rally after Trump’s victory. The 5,700 level on the SP500 futures stands out as a critical support zone, acting as a “stop-loss” level for many positioned in the well-known “Trump trade.” If the price reaches this area, more liquidations could occur, potentially clearing the way for a stronger bounce. Markets rarely move straight up that will profit everyone; liquidations often happen on the way higher. There is no easy money.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the sharp drop from all-time highs looks like an incomplete correction. The current sideways movement likely forms wave B, suggesting that wave C could lead to more liquidations toward the 5,800 level, which I see as a very important support zone.If this is indeed is a triangle in wave B, keep in mind that moves out of triangles are final in the sequence, meaning any drop could be limited before the market turns higher. So, I still believe risk-on sentiment will return, but this may not happen until Trump officially returns to office and market positioning settles for 2025.
Regarding Bitcoin, I see the 85,000–87,000 area as a very interesting support zone, where more downside could be limited.
Grega
Bill.com (BILL) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Bill.com NYSE:BILL is a leading provider of cloud-based financial workflow automation software tailored to small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). Serving nearly 500,000 SMBs, the company has established itself as a key enabler of digital transformation in financial operations, streamlining accounts payable (AP) and accounts receivable (AR) processes.
Key Growth Catalysts
Expanding SMB Market Share:
SMB Focus: BILL addresses a vast and underserved SMB market, where the demand for automation and efficiency is rapidly increasing.
As SMBs adopt digital solutions, BILL’s platform is positioned to capture significant market share by improving cash flow management and operational efficiency.
AI-Powered Innovation:
Recent enhancements integrate AI capabilities to streamline invoice processing, fraud detection, and payment approvals.
These features drive customer retention, reduce churn, and open new revenue opportunities.
Strategic Leadership Additions:
Mary Kay Bowman (EVP, Payments): A seasoned leader with a strong payments background, Bowman’s expertise enhances BILL’s ability to scale its payments business.
Bobbie Grafeld (Chief People Officer): Grafeld’s focus on talent acquisition and organizational culture will support BILL’s growth initiatives and workforce scalability.
Competitive Positioning
End-to-End Platform:
BILL’s platform simplifies financial workflows, making it indispensable for SMBs looking to reduce manual work and enhance financial visibility.
Its robust integration with major accounting software platforms (e.g., QuickBooks, Xero) strengthens its competitive moat.
Recurring Revenue Model:
BILL benefits from a high proportion of recurring revenue, driven by subscription fees and transaction volumes, ensuring stable cash flow.
Scalability:
The platform’s ability to grow with customers—from small startups to larger SMBs—positions BILL as a long-term partner in financial automation.
Financial and Stock Outlook
Bullish Momentum Above $72.00-$73.00:
BILL's innovation, market penetration, and strategic hires provide a robust foundation for continued growth.
Upside Target: $130.00-$135.00, reflecting optimism about its ability to expand market share and improve margins.
Investor Appeal:
BILL’s focus on AI-driven efficiency and its expanding SMB footprint make it attractive to growth-focused investors.
A debt-light balance sheet and consistent revenue growth highlight its financial strength.
Conclusion
Bill.com is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for financial automation among SMBs. Its AI-driven platform, strategic leadership, and strong market penetration underscore its growth potential.
📈 Recommendation: Bullish on BILL above $72.00-$73.00, targeting $130.00-$135.00.
Quantum Corporation: Major Levels to WatchGood morning, trading family!
Quantum Corporation is at a crucial point:
Above $34.50: A breakout could push us to $50 or even higher.
Below $29: The downside opens up to the $6–$12 range.
Stay sharp as these levels could define the next big move.
This Sunday, I’m hosting a Master Your Mind Traders Class to help you build a stronger trading mindset and strategy. Seats are limited—send me a DM for details!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Micron Technology: Bearish or Ready to Break Out?Good morning, trading family!
Micron (MU) is at an important spot right now:
If we move lower, I’m watching $97 and $96 as key levels, with potential for more downside.
If we hold above $100, there’s room to climb to $102, $103, and $104. A break above $104 could mean a smoother ride higher.
I’m also hosting a Master Your Mind Traders Class this Sunday to help you refine your skills and mindset. Want to join? Send me a message for details.
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
ORACLE Slowly turning into a long-term Buy again.Oracle (ORCL) gave us an excellent buy signal on our last call (September 18 2024, see chart below):
For the past 30 days it has been on a technical decline, which based on its +2 year pattern, is nothing but the Bearish Leg of the Channel Up. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is the natural Support of this trend but the September - October 2023 Bearish Leg bottomed a little over the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result we expect the stock to turn into a buy by the end of the month or if the 1W RSI hits its 42.70 Support first and initiate the new Bullish Leg, which at first shouldn't be that aggressive.
Our Target is a little below the -0.236 Fib extension at $220.00.
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SQ - Building "Block"Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 After being stuck in an accumulation phase for almost two years, SQ has finally broken above its range.
The shift in momentum is now confirmed in favor of the bulls, with the price trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
🏹 As SQ retests the lower blue trendline, I will be looking for trend-following long positions, targeting the $200 round number.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024🔮 Nightly SP:SPX / AMEX:SPY Predictions for 1.10.2024
📅 Fri Jan 10
⏰ 8:30am
💰 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.4%)
👷 Non-Farm Employment Change: 164K (prev: 227K)
📉 Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (prev: 4.2%)
⏰ 10:00am
📊 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: 74.0 (prev: 74.0)
📈 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations: 2.8%
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
The markets are very sensitive right now with the pause. I wouldn't bet that it holds this gap for long.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
A little more upside, and then markets will need the weekend to digest.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
NETFLIX: testing the 1D MA50. Buy?Netflix is marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 43.757, MACD = 4.950, ADX = 42.375) as the December correction is testing now the 1D MA50. Technically this has been the trend's support since mid August 2024. The 2 year Channel Up offers useful conclusions here. Each of its past January months (2023 and 2024) saw a surge of +38% from their closest low. If this is repeated again, then the price will test the Channel's top. Aim for that +38% rise (TP = 1,200).
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Nvidia - Shocking Everybody Again In 2025!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) will rally another +40% in 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For most people, it seems absolutely counterintuitive to witness another parabolic blow off rally on Nvidia and that's exactly why we will see such moves during 2025. Market structure just supports this outlook since Nvidia is still overall bullish and has some room towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
My Crazy Trading Story and How I Fixed ItHey everyone! I want to tell you about this one time when trading made me feel like I was on a wild rollercoaster. I made some money with a trade, and I got so excited that I thought I could do it again, but even bigger. But guess what? I lost a lot of that money back because I was too greedy.
I know you guys have felt this too:
- Fear: When your trade starts going down, and you get scared, selling it too early. Then, you see it going up the next day, and you're like, "Oh no, why did I do that?"
- Greed: When you win big, you want more, right? But sometimes, that makes you keep a trade too long or do another one without thinking, and then you lose.
-Worry: Those nights where you can't stop thinking about your trades. You're either scared to lose more or afraid you'll miss out if you don't trade. It's so hard to decide what to do.
It's super frustrating when you mess up because you're letting your feelings control your trades. But I found a cool trick that helped me a lot:
My Trick: The Chill-Out Break
When I start feeling all those big emotions - like greed or worry - I set a timer for 15 minutes. I go outside, take a walk, or play with my dog. Anything to get my mind off trading for a bit. When I come back, I'm calmer, and I can think better about what to do next. It's like taking a timeout in a game, but for your brain.
This little break has stopped me from making bad choices just because I was feeling too much. It's not just about making more money; it's about being happy while trading.
Have you ever felt like this when you're trading? What do you do to calm down? Let's talk about it! Ever felt this way? Send me a DM, I'm more than happy to help or even join my webinar this Sunday.
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Telsa, Bullish Opportunity: Wait for the Pullback first.TESLA / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
The market is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the breakout zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target:
1- First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation.
2- All-time high
3- The one standard deviation target is shown in the chart.
Why Wait?
Entering after a pullback ensures you're trading with confirmation and reduces the risk of chasing the market. This approach not only minimizes drawdowns but also increases the probability of catching the trend at a stronger position.
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.