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Vita Coco: Hydrating Investors with Impressive Growth Prospects◉ Abstract The US coconut water market, projected to grow at 18.10% CAGR to $5.12 billion by 2029 from $1.89 billion in 2023, presents significant opportunities. Vita Coco, the market leader, demonstrates resilience amidst supply chain challenges. Notably, industry giants Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, which previously ventured into this space with ZICO and O.N.E., respectively, have since divested their interests, validating Vita Coco's competitive advantage. With a debt-free balance sheet, 15% revenue growth in FY2023, and expanding EBITDA margins, its fundamentals remain strong. This robust growth trajectory, combined with a solid financial foundation, positions the company as an attractive investment opportunity, offering potential for long-term value creation and substantial returns. Investors seeking exposure to the burgeoning natural and organic beverages market may find this growth story compelling. Read full analysis here……….. ◉ Introduction The coconut water beverage market in the United States is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing health consciousness among consumers and a rising demand for natural and organic beverages. Here are the key insights into the current state and future projections of this market. ◉ Current Market Size and Growth Rate The U.S. coconut water market was valued at USD 1.89 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 5.12 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 18.10% during this period. ◉ Key Growth Drivers ● Health Consciousness: Increasing consumer preference for natural, low-calorie beverages that offer hydration and essential electrolytes. ● Rising Demand for Functional Beverages: Coconut water is popular among athletes and health enthusiasts for its functional benefits, such as electrolyte replenishment. ● Growth of Organic Products: Rising demand for organic coconut water as consumers seek clean-label products free from additives. ● Innovative Product Offerings: Introduction of flavoured coconut water and convenient packaging options, such as cans, enhances appeal and accessibility. ● Increased Availability and Distribution: Wider retail presence in supermarkets, health food stores, and online platforms boosts market accessibility. ● Cultural Acceptance: Traditional significance of coconut water in regions where coconuts are common supports its global popularity. ● Sustainability Trends: Eco-friendly packaging and sustainable sourcing practices attract environmentally conscious consumers. ◉ Major Players in the US Coconut Water Industry 1. Vita Coco ● Market Position: Vita Coco is one of the leading brands in the coconut water segment, known for its wide range of flavours and strong brand recognition. ● Product Offerings: Offers plain and flavoured coconut water in various sizes. ● Market Share: Holds a substantial portion of the market, often cited as the top player. 2. Coca-Cola Company (ZICO) ● Market Position: Previously owned ZICO, a well-known coconut water brand, which Coca-Cola acquired in 2012 but later discontinued in 2020. ● Current Status: While ZICO is no longer on the market, Coca-Cola remains a significant player through its other beverage offerings. 3. PepsiCo (O.N.E.) ● Market Position: PepsiCo's O.N.E. brand was a notable competitor in the coconut water space until its divestment in 2021. ● Current Status: PepsiCo has shifted focus away from this segment but retains influence through its broader beverage portfolio. 4. C2O Pure Coconut Water ● Market Position: C2O is recognized for its pure coconut water sourced from Thailand, emphasizing quality and natural ingredients. ● Market Share: It holds a significant share among niche brands. 5. Taste Nirvana ● Market Position: Specializes in high-quality coconut water sourced from Thailand, focusing on authentic taste and premium offerings. ● Product Range: Includes both plain and flavoured varieties. 6. Amy & Brian Naturals ● Market Position: Offers 100% natural coconut water with no additives, appealing to health-conscious consumers. ● Distribution: Available through various retail channels, including health food stores. 7. Other Notable Brands ● Additional brands such as Raw C, Bai, and Harmless Harvest also contribute to the market's competitive landscape, offering unique products that cater to different consumer preferences. In an industry poised for robust growth, we will conduct an in-depth examination of Vita Coco's technical and fundamental aspects. ◉ Company Overview The Vita Coco Company Inc. NASDAQ:COCO is a leading developer, marketer, and distributor of coconut water products and other beverages. Its portfolio includes Vita Coco coconut water, coconut oil, and coconut milk, as well as Runa plant-based energy drinks, Ever & Ever packaged water, and PWR LIFT protein-infused fitness drinks. The company also offers private label coconut water and oil solutions for retailers. With a global presence spanning the United States, Canada, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific, Vita Coco's products are available through various channels, including club stores, food and drug retailers, convenience stores, e-commerce platforms, and foodservice providers. Founded in 2004 and headquartered in New York, New York, the company formerly operated as All Market Inc. before adopting its current name in September 2021. ◉ Investment Advice 💡 Buy The Vita Coco Company NASDAQ:COCO ● Buy Range - 30.3 - 31.3 ● Sell Target - 43 - 44 ● Potential Return - 37% - 40% ● Approx Holding Period - 12-14 months ◉ Market Capitalization - $2.01 B ◉ Technical Analysis ● Weekly Chart ➖ Since its debut in 2021, the stock has undergone a prolonged consolidation phase, during which it developed a Rounding Bottom pattern. ➖ Following the breakout, the stock price surged initially but quickly transitioned into another consolidation phase, forming a Symmetrical Triangle pattern. ➖ Recently, a strong breakout has set the stage for considerable upward momentum. ● Daily Chart ➖ On the daily chart, an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern is clearly visible. ➖ After a recent breakout, the stock price is now aiming for new highs. ◉ Relative Strength The stock's performance over the past year has not matched up to the Nasdaq index, achieving a modest return of 22.5%, in contrast to the Nasdaq's impressive 40% return. ◉ Location Wise Revenue Breakdown Total Revenue in 2023: $494 million ● Americas Segment: ➖ Total Revenue from Americas: Approximately $424 million. ➖ Revenue from the United States: Around $401.97 million, reflecting substantial growth from $352.73 million in the previous year. ● International Segment: ➖ Total Revenue from International: Approximately $70 million, indicating a smaller contribution compared to the Americas. ◉ Revenue and Profit Analysis ● Year-over-Year ➖ For the fiscal year 2023, the company reported a revenue of $493.6 million, marking a 15% increase from the $427.8 million recorded in fiscal year 2022. ➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also saw a remarkable rise, reaching $57.5 million, a significant jump from just $12.3 million in FY22. ➖ Additionally, the EBITDA margin expanded to 11.6%, up from a mere 2.9% during the same timeframe. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the most recent quarter ending in September, revenue fell to $133 million, down from $144 million in June 2024. This figure also represents a decline from $138 million in the same quarter last year. ➖ The EBITDA for this latest quarter was $20.8 million, a decrease from $30.2 million in June 2024. ➖ In September, the diluted EPS experienced a modest rise, increasing to $1 (LTM) from $0.94 (LTM) in June 2024. ◉ Valuation 1. P/E Ratio ● Current P/E vs. Peer Average P/E ➖ When examining the P/E ratio, COCO is at 33.9x, which suggests a considerable overvaluation compared to the peer average of 22.4x. ● Current P/E vs. Industry Average P/E ➖ In the context of the Global Beverage industry, COCO's P/E ratio of 33.7x is significantly higher than the industry average of 18.8x, indicating that it is relatively expensive. 2. P/B Ratio ● Current P/B vs. Peer Average P/B ➖ Looking at the P/B ratio, COCO's current value of 8x is lower than the average of its peers, which stands at 10.5x, suggesting a relative undervaluation. ● Current P/B vs. Industry Average P/B ➖ In comparison to the industry average, COCO's P/B ratio of 8x indicates a significant overvaluation, as the industry average is only 5.1x. 3. PEG Ratio ➖ A PEG ratio of 0.6 suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ In fiscal year 2023, operational cash flow experienced remarkable growth, reaching $107 million, a substantial increase from only just $11 million in fiscal year 2022. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ The company proudly maintains a completely debt-free status, showcasing its strong financial health. ◉ Earnings per Share (EPS) Growth Forecasts ➖ Experts forecast that the earnings per share (EPS) could increase from $1 to $1.09 by December 2025, and further rise to $1.3 by December 2026. ◉ Top Shareholders ➖ Blackrock has significantly increased its investment in this stock, now holding an impressive 5.55% stake, which marks a 7.4% rise since the end of the June quarter. ➖ On the other hand, The Vanguard Group has a stake of approximately 4.31% in the company, representing a 3% rise from the June quarter. ◉ Conclusion The coconut water market is booming due to health trends, functional beverage demand, innovation, and wider availability. Vita Coco, despite Q3 supply chain woes, is optimistic about the future and is investing in inventory and production capacity. Despite overvaluation, the company's growth potential is significant, driven by the rising demand for organic products.
NASDAQ:COCOLong
by NaranjCapital
UNLOCK PROFITS! 5 Opportunities to Capitalise1. Tesla (Weekly Timeframe) NASDAQ:TSLA ● A symmetrical triangle pattern is clearly visible on the weekly chart. ● Following a recent breakout with strong volume, the price is likely to rise significantly. 2. Lam Research Corporation (Weekly Timeframe) NASDAQ:LRCX ● After breaking out of the cup and handle pattern, the price surged to an all-time high around the 113 level. ● A notable rejection from this peak caused a pullback to the previous breakout level. ● The price is currently consolidating at this level, preparing for a potential upward move. 3. Tapestry (Daily Timeframe) NYSE:TPR ● The stock has been trading within a rectangle pattern for a while. ● Now, following a robust breakout supported by significant volume, the stock price is primed for an upward trajectory. 4. Oppenheimer Holdings (Daily Timeframe) NYSE:OPY ● After breaking out of a bullish pennant pattern, the stock price is targeting higher levels. ● The breakout was accompanied by significantly high trading volume. 5. Deckers Outdoor Corporation (Daily Timeframe) NYSE:DECK ● The stock price has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. ● A recent breakout could drive the price to higher levels.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by NaranjCapital
Abbott Labs Shakes Off Downtrend, Sets Sights on $142 milestoneIn December 2021, the stock price hit an all-time high near the 142 mark, after which it experienced a significant drop. Following this decline, the price found support around the 90 level and began to recover. Last week, the stock managed to break through the upper boundary of the descending parallel channel, setting the stage for additional upward momentum. An immediate resistance level is noted at the 122 level, and a substantial movement is expected if this level is surpassed.
NYSE:ABTLong
by NaranjCapital
The Payment Card Titan: Comparing Visa, Mastercard, and Amex◉ Abstract The global credit card market is projected to grow from USD 559.18 billion in 2023 to USD 1,146.62 billion by 2033, driven by advancements in digital payment technologies, e-commerce growth, increased financial literacy, and urbanization, especially in Asia-Pacific. Visa leads the market with a 38.73% share, followed by Mastercard and American Express. Visa and Mastercard operate primarily as payment networks, while American Express both issues cards and offers unique rewards. Financially, all three companies show strong revenue growth, with American Express yielding the highest ROI but also carrying significant debt. Despite this debt, American Express appears undervalued based on financial ratios. Overall, while American Express presents an attractive investment opportunity, Visa and Mastercard also demonstrate solid fundamentals and growth potential for investors in the expanding credit card market. Read the full analysis here . . . ◉ Introduction The Global Credit Card Market Size was Valued at USD 559.18 Billion in 2023 and the Worldwide Credit Card Market Size is Expected to Reach USD 1146.62 Billion by 2033, ◉ Key Growth Drivers ● Digitalization and Technology: Advancements in payment technologies, including mobile wallets and contactless payments, enhance convenience and security. ● E-Commerce Growth: The rise of online shopping increases demand for credit card payments, as consumers prefer their ease and safety. ● Financial Literacy: Improved understanding of financial products encourages more consumers, especially in developing regions, to adopt credit cards. ● Urbanization: Growing urban populations, particularly in Asia-Pacific, lead to greater access to banking services and credit facilities. ● Emerging Markets: Rising disposable incomes in developing countries drive new credit card accounts as financial institutions expand their offerings. ● Consumer Convenience: The preference for quick and easy payment methods boosts credit card usage over cash transactions. ● Rewards Programs: Attractive loyalty programs incentivize consumers to use credit cards for everyday purchases. ● Regulatory Support: Government initiatives promoting cashless transactions foster a favourable environment for credit card adoption. ◉ Market Overview As of 2022, the global credit card market was primarily led by Visa, which held a 38.73% share of the worldwide payment volume. Mastercard followed with a 24% market share, while American Express (Amex) accounted for 4.61%. Notably, China UnionPay is also a major player in this space, surpassing Amex in terms of purchase volume ◉ Key Players in the Payment Card Industry 1. Visa NYSE:V ● Market Cap: $552 B ● Market Share: 38.73% ● Business Model: Payment network facilitating transactions between consumers, businesses, banks, and governments globally. ● Card Issuance: Does not issue cards itself. ● Global Reach: Extensive acceptance network across more than 200 countries. 2. Mastercard NYSE:MA ● Market Cap: $474 B ● Market Share: 24% ● Business Model: Payment processor and network partnering with banks to offer various card products. ● Card Issuance: Does not issue cards itself. ● Global Reach: Broad acceptance worldwide with diverse products catering to different consumer needs. 3. American Express NYSE:AXP ● Market Cap: $203 B ● Market Share: 4.61% ● Business Model: Card issuer and payment network offering unique benefits and rewards directly to cardholders. ● Card Issuance: Issues its own cards. ● Global Reach: High acceptance rate in the US (99% of merchants), lower in Europe and Asia due to higher transaction fees. ◉ Technical Aspects ● From a technical perspective, there's a notable similarity among the three stocks: each is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. ● All three stocks have formed a Rounding Bottom pattern, and after breaking out, their prices have climbed to new heights. ● While Mastercard and American Express are currently trading at their all-time highs, Visa is positioned just below its peak. ◉ Relative Strength The chart vividly demonstrates that American Express has excelled remarkably, achieving a return of nearly 85%, whereas Mastercard and Visa have delivered returns of 28% and 20%, respectively. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis 1. Visa ● Year-over-Year ➖ In FY23, Visa achieved a remarkable revenue increase of 11.4%, reaching $32.7 billion, up from $29.3 billion in FY22. ➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also saw a significant rise, totalling $22.9 billion compared to $20.6 billion in FY22. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the latest June quarter, Visa's revenue rose to $8.9 billion, slightly surpassing the $8.8 billion reported in March 2024. This reflects a year-over-year growth of nearly 9.5% from $8.1 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ The EBITDA for the most recent June quarter reached $6.2 billion, indicating an almost 9% increase from $5.7 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ In June, the diluted EPS saw a modest rise, climbing to $9.35 (LTM) from $8.94 (LTM) in March 2024, which represents a notable year-over-year increase of 18.6% from $30.3 (LTM). 2. Mastercard ● Year-over-Year ➖ Mastercard's revenue for FY23 experienced a robust growth of 12.9%, reaching $25.1 billion, up from $22.2 billion in FY22. ➖ The EBITDA for FY23 also increased, reporting $22.9 billion, up from $20.6 billion in FY22. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the recent June quarter, Mastercard's revenue climbed to $7.0 billion, compared to $6.3 billion in March 2024. Year-over-year, this marks an increase of nearly 11% from $6.3 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ The EBITDA for the latest June quarter was $4.4 billion, reflecting an almost 9% rise from $3.9 billion in March 2024. ➖ In June, the diluted EPS saw a slight increase, rising to $13.08 (LTM) from $12.59 (LTM) in March 2024, which is a significant year-over-year increase of 23% from $10.67 (LTM). 3. American Express ● Year-over-Year ➖ For the fiscal year 2023, the company experienced a remarkable revenue growth of 9.7%, reaching an impressive $55.6 billion, compared to $50.7 billion in fiscal year 2022. ➖ Additionally, operating income showed a positive trajectory, with fiscal year 2023 reporting $10.8 billion, an increase from $10 billion in the previous fiscal year. ● Quarter-over-Quarter ➖ In the latest June quarter, revenue continued its upward trend, totalling $15.1 billion, up from $14.5 billion in March 2024. This represents a significant year-over-year growth of nearly 8.7% from $13.9 billion in the June quarter of the previous year. ➖ Furthermore, operating income for the June quarter reached $3.2 billion, marking a substantial increase of almost 19% from $2.7 billion in the same quarter last year. ➖ The diluted earnings per share (EPS) also saw a remarkable rise in June, climbing to $13.39 (LTM) from $12.14 (LTM) in March 2024, which is a significant jump of 36% compared to $9.83 (LTM) in the same quarter last year. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ Visa stands at a P/E ratio of 29.1x. ➖ Mastercard is at a P/E ratio of 38.7x. ➖ American Express shows a P/E ratio of 20.6x. ➖ When we analyze these figures, it becomes clear that American Express appears significantly undervalued compared to its peers. ● P/B Ratio ➖ Visa has a P/B ratio of 14.3x. ➖ Mastercard's P/B ratio is a staggering 64x. ➖ American Express, however, has a P/B ratio of just 6.8x. This further reinforces the notion that American Express is currently undervalued in the market. ● PEG Ratio ➖ Visa's PEG ratio is 1.56. ➖ Mastercard's PEG stands at 1.71. ➖ American Express shines with a PEG ratio of just 0.56. ➖ This metric also highlights American Express's superior value proposition compared to its peers. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ Visa's operating cash flow for the fiscal year 2023 has risen to $20.8 billion, marking a notable increase from $18.8 billion in fiscal year 2022. ➖ Similarly, Mastercard has experienced growth in its operating cash flow, which has reached $12 billion in fiscal year 2023, up from $11.2 billion in the previous year. ➖ In contrast, American Express has reported a significant decline in its operating cash flow, decreasing from $21.1 billion in fiscal year 2022 to $18.6 billion in fiscal year 2023. ◉ Debt Analysis 1. Visa ● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 0.52 as of June 2024, indicating a stable financial structure with moderate leverage. ● Total Debt: About $20.6 billion. ● Total Shareholder Equity: $39.7 billion. ● Analysis: Visa's ratio reflects a cautious debt approach, balancing equity and debt financing, with net debt well-supported by operating cash flow, enhancing financial stability. 2. Mastercard ● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 2.10, indicating a higher reliance on debt compared to Visa 5. ● Total Debt: $15.6 billion. ● Total Shareholder Equity: $7.5 billion. ● Analysis: Mastercard’s higher ratio suggests it is more aggressive in leveraging debt for growth initiatives compared to Visa. This strategy may lead to greater volatility in earnings due to interest obligations. 3. American Express ● Debt to Equity Ratio: Approximately 1.80, indicating a significant level of debt relative to equity 5. ● Total Debt: $53.2 billion. ● Total Shareholder Equity: $29.54 billion. ● Analysis: American Express’s ratio shows a strong reliance on debt financing, which can enhance growth but also introduces risks related to interest payments and market conditions. ◉ Top Shareholders 1. Visa ● The Vanguard Group has notably boosted its investment in Visa, now commanding a remarkable 7.52% share, reflecting a 0.62% increase since the close of the March quarter. ● In contrast, Blackrock maintains a stake of approximately 6.7% in the firm. 2. Mastercard ● When it comes to Mastercard, Vanguard has also made strides, raising its ownership to an impressive 8.27%, which is a 1.02% uptick since the end of March. ● Blackrock, on the other hand, has a substantial 7.56% stake, showing a 1.17% growth from the same period. 3. American Express ● As for American Express, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway boasts a significant 21.3% stake in the company. ● Meanwhile, Vanguard holds a 6.36% interest, while Blackrock has a 5.89% share. ◉ Conclusion After a thorough analysis of both technical and financial indicators, we find that American Express offers a compelling valuation opportunity that is likely to attract investors. Nonetheless, it is important to recognize the significant debt load the company carries, a concern that also extends to Mastercard. ● From a technical standpoint, the chart for American Express seems to be stretched thin. Investors might want to hold off for a corrective dip to secure a more advantageous entry point. ● Mastercard's financial results reflect solid performance, though it carries a high level of debt. The technical chart indicates a slight overvaluation. Savvy investors might look to build their positions during times of price stabilization. ● Visa presents a well-rounded synergy between its technical and fundamental metrics. Its chart reveals a remarkable rebound, approaching previous all-time highs after a notable decline. The company's valuation and growth potential make it a compelling investment choice.
NYSE:VLong
by NaranjCapital
7
Globus Medical: Approaching resistance, is a breakthrough comingWeekly Chart ● The stock has tested the trendline resistance multiple times. ● Currently, it is trading just below this level. ● A breakout above this resistance is anticipated in the near future. ● Following the breakout, the price may increase. Daily Chart ● A Symmetrical Triangle pattern has formed. ● A strong breakout has taken place, supported by significant volume. ● The price is now set for a potential upward movement.
NYSE:GMEDLong
by NaranjCapital
Exxon's Make-or-Break Moment: $123 Resistance in FocusThe chart distinctly illustrates that the stock has been in a consolidation phase for over a year and is presently trading slightly below its resistance zone. For a potential upward movement, the price must surpass the 123 level and maintain its position above this threshold. At the same time, there is a significant likelihood that the stock price may encounter rejection once more, leading to a decline towards its trendline support level.
NYSE:XOM
by NaranjCapital
1
Coca-Cola's Bull Run Intensifies: Pole & Flag Breakout Expected!The chart shows that the stock price encountered resistance near the $65 level, subsequently dropping to $52, where it found support. After rebounding from this support, the price began to rise, successfully breaking through the Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that had formed during the consolidation phase. Following this breakout, the price entered another consolidation period, created an Ascending Triangle Pattern. With another breakout, the stock price surged to an all-time high of $73.5 before experiencing a pullback. A bullish Pole & Flag pattern has emerged on the chart, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. It is expected that the price will break through this pattern and reach new highs in the near future.
NYSE:KOLong
by NaranjCapital
2
Antitrust Threat Looms Over Google, Shares Could Plummet by 10%!Google's dominance might be ending. A U.S. judge has decided that the company's control over search is unfair competition. This could lead to Alphabet, Google's parent company, being split up and a major change in online advertising. A new era of search could be coming, as the internet's main player may soon lose its power. Technical Analysis The share price has surged by over 190% since hitting its lowest point during the Covid-19 crash. Following a previous peak of $152, the stock experienced a significant drop and subsequently entered a prolonged phase of consolidation. After approximately 2.5 years of this price stabilization, the stock finally broke through its prior resistance in April 2024. This significant breakthrough resulted in an impressive surge, propelled the price to a new all-time high of $193. However, the stock price faced considerable resistance at that level, resulted in a decline and eventually breaking down of its upward-trending parallel channel. The stock is likely to experience a sharp decline of about 10%, finding support somewhere between $132 and $131.
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by NaranjCapital
NOC vs LMT: A Valuation War Between Top Defence Manufacturers!ABOUT COMPANIES Northrop Grumman NYSE:NOC excels in advanced aircraft systems, divided into four main areas: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. Aeronautics Systems designs and manufactures cutting-edge aircraft for the U.S. military and global clients. Defense Systems integrates battle management and weaponry, while Mission Systems delivers innovative solutions for defense and intelligence. Space Systems focuses on solutions for national security and commercial purposes. Established in 1939 by John K. Northrop and others, the company is headquartered in Falls Church, VA. Lockheed Martin NYSE:LMT stands as a top global security and aerospace company, dedicated to the research, design, and production of advanced technology systems. It operates in four primary segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control (MFC), Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS), and Space. The Aeronautics segment focuses on military aircraft, including combat and drones. MFC specializes in air and missile defense and precision strike systems. RMS develops military and commercial helicopters and cyber solutions, while the Space segment creates satellites and defense systems. Founded in 1912, the company is located in Bethesda, MD. MARKET CAPITALIZATION ● Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) - $75.96 Billion ● Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) - $135.53 Billion TECHNICAL ASPECTS ● Northrop Grumman ➖ The monthly chart shows that the stock price is currently on a distinct upward path. ➖ Previously, it faced resistance around the $360 level, caused a notable pullback. ➖ Subsequently, the price formed a Double Bottom pattern and broke out successfully. ➖ This breakout drove the price to an all-time high near the $556 level but the price started declining from there. ➖ Nevertheless, the stock price found strong support around the $420 level, allowed it to bounce back. ➖ Currently, the stock is approaching its previous all-time high, and if it can overcome that resistance, we can anticipate further price increases in the coming days. ● Lockheed Martin ➖ This stock is on a strong upward trajectory, consistently achieving higher highs and higher lows. ➖ Following a significant breakout around the $500 mark, the stock price surged and is now trading at $568.5, just shy of its all-time peak of $578.7. ➖ From a technical perspective, the price is hovering just below the upper boundary of a parallel channel, which may act as a resistance point. ➖ However, if the price can break through this range and maintain that momentum, we could see even greater upward movement ahead. Relative Strength ● The chart shows that the NYSE Composite TVC:NYA has provided a solid return on investment of about 18% in the last year. In comparison, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin have done even better, with returns of around 20% and 27%, respectively. REVENUE BREAKDOWN ● Northrop Grumman The company derives its income from four main segments. ➖ The largest share comes from the space systems segment, contributing around 33%, which equates to $14.34 billion out of a total revenue of $43 billion. ➖ Next, the aeronautics systems segment adds nearly 27%, bringing in $11.61 billion of the overall revenue. ➖ The mission systems segment follows closely, accounting for about 26%, or $11.12 billion of the total. ➖ Finally, the defense systems segment generates nearly 14%, totaling $5.99 billion of the overall revenue. ● Lockheed Martin Similar to Northrop Grumman, this company also operates through four segments to drive its revenue. ➖ The aeronautics segment leads the way, contributing around 38.4%, which amounts to nearly $28.77 billion of the total revenue of $74.85 billion. ➖ The rotary and mission systems segment accounts for 26.4% of revenue, equating to $19.76 billion. ➖ Next, the space segment contributes 17.8%, which is $13.33 billion. ➖ Finally, the missile and fire control segment makes up 17.4%, totaling $12.99 billion of the overall revenue. REVENUE & PROFIT ANALYSIS ● Northrop Grumman Revenue ➖ For the FY23 the revenue has jumped by 7.3% to $39.3 B from $36.6 B in FY22. ➖ In the recent June quarter there is no significant surge in revenue as the recent quarterly revenue stands at $10.2 B compared to $10.1 B in the march 2024. But from the last year June quarter the revenue has grown by almost 6% from $9.6 B. Profit ➖ The operating profit has experienced a decline, with FY23 reporting only $2.9 billion, a drop from $6.3 billion in FY22. ➖ In the latest June quarter, the operating profit held steady at $1.3 billion, unchanged from the March quarter. Basic EPS (LTM) ➖ The basic EPS saw a slight rise in June, climbing to $15.26 (LTM) from $14.33 (LTM) in March 2024. However, compared to the same quarter last year, there has been a significant drop from $30.23 (LTM) Analyzing these numbers shows that although revenue has risen, the company is having difficulty producing profits, which may impact the share price in the near term. ● Lockheed Martin Revenue ➖ In FY23, the company experienced a slight revenue increase of 2.4%, rising to $67.6 billion from $66 billion in FY22. ➖ During the recent June quarter, revenue reached $18.1 billion, up from $17.2 billion in the March quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, this represents a significant growth of approximately 8.6%, up from $16.7 billion. Profit ➖ The operating income has experienced a year-over-year increase. For FY23, it reached $9.0 billion, marking a 23% rise from $7.3 billion in FY22. ➖ However, there hasn't been a notable change in operating profit on a quarter-over-quarter basis. In June, the operating profit stood at $2.2 billion, slightly up from $2.1 billion in March. This figure is consistent with the operating profit reported in the same quarter last year. Basic EPS (LTM) ➖ The basic EPS stood at $27.58 (LTM) in June 2024 ➖ Over the past year, there has been no notable growth in EPS (LTM) Lockheed Martin demonstrates a more robust financial standing compared to Northman Grumman. VALUATION ● P/E Ratio ➖ P/E vs. Median P/E (1) Northrop Grumman's current price-to-earnings ratio over the past twelve months stands at 33.2x, which appears elevated when compared to its four-year median of 15.2x. (2) Lockheed Martin's recent twelve-month p/e ratio is 20.1x, also showing a rise relative to its four-year median of 16.2x. ➖ P/E vs. Industry P/E (1) NOC shows a fair valuation with a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 33.2x, which is just below the US Aerospace & Defense Industry average of 33.3x. (2) On the other hand, LMT, with a P/E of 20.1x, seems to be undervalued relative to the industry average of 33.3x. ● P/B Ratio ➖ NOC's current P/B ratio of 5.3x appears inflated when stacked against the US Aerospace & Defense Industry average of 3.2x. ➖ In the case of LMT, it stands out as significantly overvalued, boasting a P/B ratio of 21.9x, which is far above the industry average of 3.2x. FREE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS ● Northrop Grumman ➖ In FY23, cash flow from operations saw a remarkable increase, climbing to $3.9 billion, a notable rise from $2.9 billion in FY22. ➖ In the most recent quarter, this figure reached $4.4 billion, up from $3.9 billion in March. ● Lockheed Martin ➖ There was little change in operating cash flow, with FY23 reporting $7.9 billion, which is nearly the same as the $7.8 billion recorded in FY22. ➖ On a quarterly basis, there has been an uptick; for the June quarter, operating cash flow stood at $8.8 billion, an increase from $8.0 billion in March and $7.7 billion in the same quarter last year. DEBT ANALYSIS ● NOC currently has a debt of $16.3 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 114%. While this may raise some concerns, the company boasts an interest coverage ratio of 5.2, indicating a solid ability to manage interest payments on its debt. ● In contrast, LMT carries a debt of $19.3 billion, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of 311%, which suggests poor financial health. However, with an impressive interest coverage ratio of 8.9, the company is in a strong position to meet its interest obligations. TOP SHAREHOLDERS ● Northrop Grumman ➖ State Street Global has a notable 9.59% ownership in this firm, while The Vanguard Group possesses a considerable 8.22% stake. ● Lockheed Martin ➖ In addition to the 11.2% held by Lockheed Martin's Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP), State Street Global and The Vanguard Group own 15.1% and 8.99% respectively. ➖ BlackRock also maintains a significant 7.13% interest in this company. CONCLUSION After reviewing all the financial metrics, it becomes evident that each company possesses distinct strengths and weaknesses. It's difficult to determine which one is the superior investment choice at this moment. A look at the monthly chart indicates that both companies are currently at a high point, but they could be good candidates for accumulation during any significant downturns. In 2023, the US spent $916 billion on defense, which was more than any other country. This was an increase of $55 billion from 2022. and this figure could increase given the current global landscape. Therefore, companies like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin are expected to perform well in the foreseeable future.
NYSE:NOCLong
by NaranjCapital
Concerned about aging? Start investing in Addus now!The aging U.S. population is set to double by 2050, increasing the need for caregivers. Addus HomeCare Corporation, based in Frisco, Texas, provides essential personal care, hospice, and home health services. With a market cap of $2.35 billion, Addus reported $1.115 billion in revenue in June 2024, with a 27% profit increase. The company is debt-free and has major shareholders like Blackrock and The Vanguard Group. EPS is forecasted to grow significantly by December 2025. With a growing need for home healthcare services, the company is well-positioned to expand its customer base and market presence. Company Overview Addus HomeCare Corporation and its subsidiaries offer personal care services for the elderly, disabled, and those at risk of hospitalization in the U.S. It operates in three areas: Personal Care, Hospice, and Home Health. The Personal Care segment helps with daily activities like bathing, grooming, and meal preparation. The Hospice segment provides care and support for terminally ill patients and their families. The Home Health segment delivers skilled nursing and therapy services for those recovering from illness or hospitalization. Its clients include government agencies, managed care organizations, insurers, and private individuals. Founded in 1979, Addus is based in Frisco, Texas. Investment Advice by Naranj Capital Buy Addus Homecare Corporation NASDAQ:ADUS ● Buy Range- 120 - 125 ● Target- 150 - 160 ● Potential Return- 25-30% ● Duration- 10 -12 Months Market Capitalization - $ 2.35B Sector - Healthcare (Nursing) Technical Analysis ● The monthly chart indicates a clear upward trend in prices. ● Earlier, the stock peaked near the 129 (128.8 to be precise) level before experiencing a correction, which was subsequently followed by an elongated consolidation period from November 2020 to July 2024. ● Recently, the stock has successfully made a multi-year breakout of the previous resistance zone and has maintained its position above this breakout level. ● We expect this momentum to persist, leading to further price increases in the days ahead. Entry, Exit & Stop-loss ● Entry with Capital allocation strategy (1) consider adding 50% of your desired quantity at the current market price (132 - 133). (2) The second buying opportunity will be in the 120 - 122 range, where you can also add rest 50% of your quantity. ● Target Chart analysis indicates a promising upside potential of 25-30% for this stock from the best buying level, with a target around the 155 to 160. There is also a strong likelihood that the stock could exceed this target. ● Stoploss It is crucial to implement a strict stop-loss below the 115 level, as we anticipate that the stock may encounter challenges if it drops to this point. Revenue Breakdown The company generates its revenue through three primary segments. (1) The personal care sector represents around 74.2% of the overall revenue, totaling $827 million out of $1.11 billion. (2) Meanwhile, hospice services contribute nearly 19.7%, amounting to $219.8 million of the total revenue. (3) The home health segment accounts for approximately 6.1%, which translates to $67.8 million of the overall revenue. Sales & Profit Analysis ● A noticeable rise in revenue has been observed. For the June quarter, revenue reached $1.115 billion, marking an 11.6% increase from $999 million in June 2023 (YoY) and a 2.5% rise from $1.08 billion in March 2024 (QoQ). ● Additionally, profits surged by 27% in the latest quarter, climbing to $68.89 million from $53.83 million in the same quarter last year, and up 5% from $65.67 million in March 2024. ● The profit margin has also improved, increasing from 5.4% to 6.2% year-on-year. ● The basic EPS for the June 2024 quarter is reported at 4.28, marking a significant increase of 27% from 3.37 in the same quarter last year. Peer Companies (1) Privia Health Group (NASDAQ: PRVA) - $ 2.41B NASDAQ:PRVA (2) Amedisys (NASDAQ: AMED) - $ 3.21B NASDAQ:AMED (3) Astrana Health (NASDAQ: ASTH) - $ 2.33B NASDAQ:ASTH Valuation ● P/E vs Fair P/E Ratio ➖ The current PE ratio stands at 34.1x, slightly expensive to the estimated Fair PE of 28.7x. ● P/E Ratio vs Peers ➖ ADUS offers great value with a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 34.1x, significantly lower than the peer average of 62.7x. ● P/E Ratio vs Industry P/E ➖ ADUS seems to come at a higher price, boasting a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 34.1x, notably surpassing the US Healthcare industry average of 26.2x. Debt Analysis ➖ ADUS stands proudly as a debt-free entity, a remarkable transformation from five years ago when its debt to equity ratio stood at 12.9%. This significant shift underscores the company's commitment to financial health and stability. Top Shareholders ● Blackrock currently holds a substantial 16% stake in this stock, reflecting an impressive increase of 11.2% since the March quarter. ● Meanwhile, The Vanguard Group has also boosted its investment, raising its stake by 8.5% from the previous quarter, bringing their total holding to 7.74%. Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts Experts forecast that the earnings per share (EPS) could increase from $4.28 to $4.51 by December 2024, and further rise to $5.03 by December 2025. Conclusion With the growing need for home healthcare services, the company is well-positioned to broaden its customer base and enhance its market presence.
NASDAQ:ADUSLong
by NaranjCapital
1
Apple is a great buy once it exceeds 240! The stock experienced an extended period of consolidation, during which it formed several bullish chart patterns, including the Double Bottom and Rounding Bottom. After the price broke above the neckline of the Rounding Bottom, the stock surged to reach an all-time high close to the 237 level. Since then, it has retraced nearly 17%-18%, returned to its support level. Now, with a robust rebound underway, the stock is approaching its resistance zone, and there are strong expectations for a significant breakout. The optimal buying opportunity lies just above the 240 level.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by NaranjCapital
25