Get started

Stocksignaler

Look Out Below Market Trends Up This WeekWorking on very preliminary theories of where we could be based on the movement so far. Check out my last analysis from a month ago to see why I thought we were due a major market correction. Theory has us in: Supercycle 2, Cycle wave 1, Primary wave 1, Intermediate wave 2. Assuming we are in the very early stages of a large macro level wave 1 down (Cycle 1), we are likely inside the first wave (Primary 1) of that movement. We may have just completed Intermediate wave 1 down, however, the pace was so fast it may still be early in Intermediate wave 1. The wave 3 reversal indicators signaled much more than normal which means they all called the end of the impulse waves correctly, or the first group in the currently marked Minor wave 1 was inaccurate. As it is laid out now, Minor wave 2 retraced around 50% of wave 1's drop. Wave 3 extended nearly 161% of wave 1's movement. Wave 4 retraced nearly all of wave 2's movement and wave 5 extended nearly 261% of wave 3's movement. These are all close to Fibonacci movements commonly used for identifying reversals. Although Minor wave 3 as marked is short at just 12 bars long, wave 5 was 11 bars long (as marked) maintaining a wave principle on 3's length. There is enough here to consider Intermediate wave 1's movement complete. Confirmation of this theory should occur if Intermediate wave 2 sees general upward movement over the next week. Intermediate wave 1 currently measures 82 bars. 38.2% of this length is 31.324 bars, so I have rounded up to 32 bars for a premature potential length of Intermediate wave 2. As far as real world catalysts, the primary earth mover is likely in the Middle East. The world is bracing for a coordinated Iranian strike against Israel. A few articles today mentioned the Tisha B'Av which takes place on August 12-13 as a potential retaliation date. This would begin around bar 33 for Intermediate wave 2. IF we truly are in the early stages of a wave 2, a third wave with a simple common wave extension of 161.8% would place a low at 4731.93. The next normal wave 3 retracement at 261.8% would put a low at 4150. IF we are truly in a longer term major bearish cycle, 4150-4731 is a normal move here. A catalyst to get the market there could be significant unrest in the Middle East capable of not only disrupting energy supply, but shipping, manufacturing, and elevated geopolitical tensions.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by StockSignaler
If History Rhymes, Here Is Top and BottomI am still quite confident the markets are set to drop significantly in 2024. I have studied correctional wave patterns that are similar to our current situation wherein the market topped on January 4, 2022 and began the corrective pattern. **The pattern contains a wave B that is larger than wave A in duration and movement. The wave C then moves more than wave B** The current case so far so the index drop 1,327.04 points over 195 trading days. As of the close on March 6, 2024, wave B has gained 1,658.09 points in 347 trading days (the current top for this calculation is 5149.67 on March 4. CURRENT SITUATION SO FAR: I have found similar conditions 11 times historically and studied how waves B and C reacted in those situations and applied it to the current case to determine where wave B could end and what wave C could do. ******2023****** This first event began February 24, 2023. I will use 6 minute bars for comparisons. This is an inversion to today's scenario as the B wave moved down instead of up. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 74.97 points over 58 trading bars Wave B moved 89.89 points over 193 trading bars Wave C moved 150.33 points over 149 trading bars Wave A was 30.05% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 119.90% of wave A's movement Wave A was 38.93% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 200.52% of wave A's movement The full inverted movement picture was this: If we apply the data explicitly to the data from our 2022 wave A, wave B could last 647 trading days gaining 1,591.14 points placing the market top at 5,082.72. Wave C could then lose 2,660.98 points in 501 trading days. ******2018****** This next event began January 26, 2023. I have returned to daily bars for this scenario. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 319.07 points over 44 trading days Wave B moved 387.11 points over 121 trading days Wave C moved 594.33 points over 65 trading days Wave A was 36.36% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 121.32% of wave A's movement Wave A was 67.69% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 186.27% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 536 trading days gaining 1,609.96 points placing the market top at 5,101.54. Wave C could then lose 2,471.88 points in 288 trading days. ******2014****** This next event began July 24, 2014. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 82.38 points over 73 trading hours Wave B moved 110.25 points over 205 trading hours Wave C moved 198.6 points over 129 trading hours Wave A was 35.61% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 133.83% of wave A's movement Wave A was 56.59% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 241.08% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 548 trading days gaining 1,775.98 points placing the market top at 5,267.56. Wave C could then lose 3,199.23 points in 344 trading days. ******2011****** This next event began January 19, 2011. I will use hourly trading bars for this example. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 23.34 points over 6 trading hours Wave B moved 31.41 points over 22 trading hours Wave C moved 26.17 points over 4 trading hours Wave A was 27.27% % the duration of wave B Wave B moved 134.58% of wave A's movement Wave A was 150% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 112.13% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 715 trading days gaining 1,785.93 points placing the market top at 5,277.51. Wave C could then lose 1,488.01 points in 130 trading days. ******2005****** This next event began March 7, 2005. I will return to daily trading bars for this example and the rest after this point. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 89.47 points over 31 trading days Wave B moved 109.64 points over 73 trading days Wave C moved 77.44 points over 50 trading days Wave A was 42.47% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.54% of wave A's movement Wave A was 62.00% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 86.55% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 459 trading days gaining 1,626.15 points placing the market top at 5,117.73. Wave C could then lose 1,148.55 points in 314 trading days. ******2000****** This next event began March 24, 2000. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 784.24 points over 639 trading days Wave B moved 807.46 points over 1259 trading days Wave C moved 909.3 points over 352 trading days Wave A was 50.75% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 102.96% of wave A's movement Wave A was 181.53% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 115.95% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 384 trading days gaining 1,366.32 points placing the market top at 4,857.90. Wave C could then lose 1,538.70 points in 107 trading days. ******1990****** This next event began January 3, 1990. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 19 trading days Wave B moved 49.95 points over 115 trading days Wave C moved 75.27 points over 62 trading days Wave A was 16.52% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 122.55% of wave A's movement Wave A was 30.65% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 184.67% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,180 trading days gaining 1,626.29 points placing the market top at 5,117.87. Wave C could then lose 2,450.64 points in 636 trading days. ******1979****** This next event began October 5, 1979. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 13.1 points over 11 trading days Wave B moved 21.16 points over 79 trading days Wave C moved 25.99 points over 30 trading days Wave A was 13.92% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 161.53% of wave A's movement Wave A was 36.67% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 198.40% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 1,401 trading days gaining 2,143.57 points placing the market top at 5,635.15. Wave C could then lose 2,632.85 points in 532 trading days. ******1968****** This next event began December 2, 1968. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 40.76 points over 368 trading days Wave B moved 53.13 points over 665 trading days Wave C moved 60.78 points over 437 trading days Wave A was 55.34% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 130.35% of wave A's movement Wave A was 84.21% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 149.12% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 352 trading days gaining 1,729.80 points placing the market top at 5,221.38. Wave C could then lose 1,978.88 points in 231 trading days. ******1965****** This next event began May 13, 1965. Waves A and B looked like this: Wave A moved 9.95 points over 32 trading days Wave B moved 13.99 points over 156 trading days Wave C moved 22.44 points over 168 trading days Wave A was 20.51% the duration of wave B Wave B moved 140.60% of wave A's movement Wave A was 19.05% the duration of wave C Wave C moved 225.53% of wave A's movement The full movement was this: Applying this data to our current wave A data, wave B could last 950 trading days gaining 1,865.82 points placing the market top at 5,357.40. Wave C could then lose 2,992.87 points in 1,024 trading days. Based on all of these instances, some are too far off to rhyme to our current situation when it comes to likely duration of wave B or top while others have options in play in the very near-term. With our current high 347 days into wave B, the next likely duration candidates are: 352, 384, 459, 536, 548, 647, 715, and 950. With only one top more than 300 points ago, nearby tops for wave B are at: 5,102, 5,118 (twice), 5,221, 5,267, 5,277, 5,357, and 5,635. One of the historically similar instances possible in the near-term for both the duration and top are from 1968. A replication or near similar movement could place the top on next Monday at 5,221. This happens to be the day prior to the next CPI reading. A CPI increase could further delay or altogether push rate cuts off the table this year. If this is the exact top, the bottom could occur 231 trading days later near 3,242.50. This level aligns very near my original forecasted low below 3,300 (granted I figured the top would have been in well before now). The bottom could be around February 10, 2025 which is also in my semi-wide ballpark of the original market bottom forecasted on July 4, 2022. The highest retracement for wave B's movement in relation to wave C is 161% from 1979, while most reside in the 119%-135% range. We have currently retraced (over extended) around 125% of wave A's movement. We shall see what occurs as time moves on. If a drastic falls is still set to occur, it will take cascading events likely to the finance and technology sectors to make it so.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Three tracks to the bottom (cont)This is a follow-up to my analysis from the other day. The green track is the one for the 1968 model. It has held pretty close to the entirety of the whole correction so I favor this model for now. The 2018 model is pretty good. It is the yellow track. It was a short duration but had the lowest bottom. This would give us a bottom around 2700 which most of my other models are no longer favoring. It is good to see, but I am not favoring it as much as the 1968 model. The final model is the 2005 model and the magenta solid path. This model has one of the higher tops over the longer period of time. I do not like this model but it is possible. I figure the drop will be quicker and go below the prior low from October 2022. The 2005 correction did not see C go below wave A's bottom.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Two Signals For MGM Provide Rollercoaster ActionI had two trading signal trigger for MGM last week that could set the stage for some good up and down trading. My MACD overtraded signal fired on the daily chart on January 31, 2023 indicating the stock should move down over the next 10 trading days. This signal is accurate 94.297% of the 264 studied occurrences. There is a delay to the downside action that occurs during 3% of the successes. This means the stock moves upward before reversing course and obeying the signal's projected movement. The delay area for this specific signal is the white box on my chart above. The target box for the bearish movement is the larger green box to the downside. On February 2, the closing price created a bullish signal based on my multi-timeframe indicator. This bullish signal indicates MGM will likely move to the upside in the next 10 and 25 trading bars. However, this indicate has a high delay rate at 62.791% over 10 days and 73.256% over 25 days. This means the stock moves down first prior to moving up. The typical delay area for this signal is the yellow box which overlaps the white and green boxes. I have also placed the likely bullish target box as the lighter blue outlined one. We can use the delay box for the second signal to shrink the possible target area for the bearish signal. The overlap of the yellow box in the green likely indicates future downward movement will likely occur between 5 and 12 February with a bottom between 42.00-43.24. Once this bottom is in, the stock may then move upward to the bullish target box which begins around 46.63. This could provide an interesting trading setup if we buy on this dip. As far as movement once or if we hit the bullish target box? There is a key resistance line (the dotted magenta line) around 51.17 which stood strong since November 2021. It was broken through to a new all-time high on July 31, 2023 up to 51.35, however, the stock has never closed above 50.77. We will see what happens with this ceiling. My modified wave theory does have this stock nearing a top for now, however it remains to be seen.
NYSE:MGMLong
by StockSignaler
3
A Little Bearish on Verizon StockWe received two signals for Verizon stock based on the closing price on February 2, 2024 indicating the stock will likely drop over the next 6-20 days. My SAG Gauge Conservative algorithm bearish signal has occurred 211 times. A bearish signal has successfully seen the stock drop below the signal closing price over the next 10 trading days 95.7% of the time. The typical delay, or time the stock does not immediately move downward has generally only been 1 day. This means the stock could move up on Monday, but likely begin its decline as late as Tuesday of this upcoming week. The other bearish signal is my Up and Down MACD, which signals before a typical MACD cross would occur. Instead of signalling at the cross, I added additional parameters that trigger shortly after weakness is confirmed and well ahead of the cross most people will trade on. For VZ stock, it is accurate in determining reversals 94.50% of the time. This one is interesting in that delays that have occurred result in less than a 1% move. This means the signal price on Friday (closing price) of 42.13 would most likely not see the stock move above 42.60 before it moves below 42.13. In this instance I am looking for a drop well below 42.13. Simultaneous signals of both algorithms at the same time has occurred 60 times. 58, or 96% of the time the stock has dropped. Simultaneous signals are something I prefer to see as it is more bolstering than solo signals. The last time these two signals occurred together and failed was March 22, 2000. The stock failed to trade downward over the next 27 days. Day 28 finally went into the red, but was a failure in my 10 and 25 day studies. I am looking for a possible move up on Monday/Tuesday at the latest before we start to move down. A success will occur if the stock goes below 42.13. Historically, simultaneous signals send the stock down to at least 42.09 (which is a very weak success). The 10 day target is a 1.3% - 4% drop over the next 6-9 days. The 25 day target is 2.4% - 6% over by days 13-22. It is unclear where the stock will go after this movement occurs.
NYSE:VZShort
by StockSignaler
If the market finally topped, this is nextSince the recent bull move at the end of October began, we have stayed above the same trendline. Not only did the final hour of trading break below that line, it also closed below it. Is this the first indication we have begun Cycle wave C down? Based on the historical quartile percentages, it appears Cycle wave C and ultimately Supercycle wave 2 will bottom below 3041. The original call for the bottom in July 2022 was to occur around 2400 in the first quarter of 2025. Those dates initially moved forward when I thought Cycle B ended early and I raised the levels to 2700-2900 as well. A bottom in 2025 looks all but certain due to the elongation of Cycle wave B. It looks like the low should stay above 2474.27 but let's see what the other studies say. The duration models have the most likely lengths at 2499 and 1365 hours which are the respective lengths of B and A. I will once again discount these lengths due to the macro nature of the forecasted wave. The then longest durations are at 2720-2740 and 1240-1260 followed by 4080-4100. The price models agree the most at a bottom between 2900-3050, with the next pocket of agreement at 2650-2750. Other levels are available as high as 3100-3250 and low as 2350-2400. My derivative model is unable to produce enough data due to the macro position of the sought wave. The final study compares specific characteristics of the preceding waves to determine what Cycle wave C could do based on historical similarities. Cycle wave B was longer than Cycle wave A, which while less frequent, wave C's behavior is relatively consistent. Cycle wave B was 2499 trading hours long (assuming it has finally completed) while wave A was 1365. This means A was 0.5462 times that size of B. I looked for waves that had the same ratio between 0.5 and 0.65. I further sought historicals where the price movement of A/B was between 1-1.15. In the current case Cycle wave A moved 1.0316 times that of B. Wave B nearly retraced all of Cycle wave A's movement at 96.94%. The of this query provided realistic goals of what Cycle wave C could look like. Duration models like the window from 2261-3864 with the median at 2842. The price models like the low between 3165.62-3378.02. The low is expected to remain above 2729.944 according to this study. My preliminary assessment puts the bottom around 2150-2200 trading hours and around 2650-2900 for price. This would put the market bottom around mid-March 2025. This is the green box in the bottom right of the main chart above. I have figured China taking Taiwan would be a factor in the coming declines, but deflation in the U.S. economy, shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, politics in the U.S. will possibly play factors too. This is the final piece of the ABC correction which is a shorter variation of the 2000-2009 more macro ABC correction. Once we bottom out, the next impulsive cycle should send the S&P 500 index beyond 8000 over the next 15-20 years. I am also working on my modified wave analysis for DIS, JPM, and KO over the next few months. Follow me for more analysis and happy hunting.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Market Top Within 2 Days Or Less?I am bearish again already (surprise)! The terror in the Red Sea could be the tipping point for future economic calamity now that multiple companies have chosen the longer path to market around South Africa. Going on the premise Minor wave 4 dropped with a quiet whimper, we are possibly in the final Minor wave 5 up. First task is to identify potential tops. The far right percentage levels are the historic retracement levels from a prior analysis for the Cycle wave B top. The solo value to the left is the nearest potential top for Primary wave C (movement extension at 115.13% of Primary wave A). Similar levels for the top of Minor wave 5 are the inner percentage lines on the right. Half of the historic levels are between 4738.57-4794.712. The second study has the most agreement at a top between 4760-4780. Very few models are looking for a top beyond 4785 at this time. Duration models agree the most at 24 hours which was the length of wave 2, but we are in a micro enough of a stage that this level is valid. Another duration pocket is 35-36 trading hours long. Today's close already puts Minor wave 5 at 16 hours long. Third pocket of agreement is 20-22 hours which would occur prior to tomorrow's close. My derivative model has the largest price range at 4770.30-4864.91, tighter range at 4801.75-4854.92, most specific at 4833.20-4844.06. The duration models are at 4-24 hours, 9-22, and 14-18 hours. The final study compares relationships of the other microwaves against similar historical ratios. Minor wave 1 was 0.3174 the movement of Minor wave 3, while Minor wave 2 was 1.1958 times the movement of Minor wave 4. I compared 1:3 values that were 0.28-0.35 and 2:4 values that were 1.1109. This data suggests the length of Minor wave 5 could be between 19-24 hours, with strongest agreement at 22-24 hours. The data suggests the top is no higher than 4797.90, and likely between 4754-4774. I am looking for a possible top in 18-24 hours between 4759-4776. Hour 24 would be the first hour of trading on Wednesday. Last week, when I thought Minor wave 4 was yet to be finished my top was this coming Friday. This move up may be too quick, however, today's new high likely confirms Minor wave 4 had ended prior to my last analysis projecting its end thus making a earlier market top plausible. This theory of the market topping will likely require a few days to confirm which won't be visible until next week, unless the market drops quickly in some regard before this week's end. Happy Holidays as volatility appears ready for a dynamic return!
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Profit Taking On Friday?Minor wave 3 has possibly ended on cue with the high at the open today. If this holds, next stop should occur quickly with a Minor wave 4 bottom. The historical models of common retracement percentages are on the right. The three maximum models are red at the bottom. The pink levels are the quartiles for the most specific relational data and generally contain the bottom among the three levels. Light blue lines are next slightly broader data set and the yellow are the broadest dataset. The second study has the largest agreement for the bottom in a very tight range of 4685-4690 which is the top green box. The larger green box contains the top and bottom of the next range and likely a more probable location for the bottom. This is between 4645-4680. The same set of modelling is also used to determine duration for Minor wave 4. The strongest agreement is at 24 hours long with second at 7 hours. These are the lengths of waves 2 and 3 respectively and possibly unlikely as mentioned in prior analyses, however, we are in more of a micro wave with the Minor waves and those levels cannot be ruled out as they would be in a long duration macro wave. Next agreement is 14 hours (possibly encouraged as a multiple of 7 hours) and then 21 hours. Just like there are two boxes of interest when it comes to price I have the same for duration. The top box is the 7 to 14 hour area and the larger green box is 7-21 hours. The next study is my newer derivative model. The bottom should be contained in the light blue box (which is yet to be entered indicating more downward action tomorrow). This is between 2-20 trading hours. The price should be between 4636.95-4693.03. A more specific area for the bottom is the orange box between 3-13 hours and 4638.53-4679.26. The most specific target region tiny pink/magenta box) from median data is between 4652.01-4665.49, however, the duration has already been busted. The final study seeks specific ratios of the other micro waves in the current macro wave to identify common historical waves. Minor wave 3 so far gained 192.07 points while Minor wav 1 gained 60.97. Wave 1/ Wave 3 is 0.317436. Similarly working Minor wave 2's loss of 52.89-->Wave 1/Wave 2 is 1.15277. I sought all micro wave 4s in which the prior micros held a 1/2 ratio between 1.1 and 1.2 AND 1/3 ratio between 0.28 and 0.35. I further determined what those wave 4s did and developed potential targets for the current wave 4. This data puts the duration between 6-8 hours and 8-19 hours. The bottom is contained between two pockets at 4673.9-4693.1 and 4663.4-4673.9. Ideally this has the bottom no lower than 4663 and lasting less than 19 hours. Considering all of the data and projections from the studies. It looks like the bottom of Minor wave 4 could occur as soon as tomorrow but no later than Monday. My forecast for the bottom is inside the white box between 4663-4680. This could be as simple as profit taking from the amazing bull sprint in the past 6 weeks. If this target zone is hit on Friday, I should lay out forecasts for Minor wave 5 and the final market top this weekend. I continue to lay all models out as part of my testing and refinement to see which ones work or are working, versus which models can be discarded. Although the biggest key is historical data may not be indicative of future behavior.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
First Projection of Next Stock Market DropOperating under the premise Primary wave 2 was finally finished or will soon, this is the preliminary peak at Primary 3 down. Here is the hourly: I am displaying the daily with the play button so it will be viewable forever on TradingView as the hourly will eventually stop loading (years from now). Things to note, Primary wave 2 was the third largest retracement of a Primary wave 2 inside a Cycle wave C in history according to my mapping of the S&P 500. I did not think it would reach this level, however, multiple models had secondary agreement of the top between 4515-4519 which was quite close. Will teach me not to ignore secondaries again. The initial models are looking at Primary wave C lasting 505-690 trading hours. For this initial projection I plotted the end around 600 hours. The final bottom was projected around 3450, but the median model placed future Intermediate wave 5 below 4400. This current wave structure is based on the initial premise of a 600 hour duration and drop of 1071 points. Again the structure is perfect world symmetrical and not likely totally accurate. I am using this as a guide and will update as we move. Bottom line, something major has to happen especially in the Intermediate wave 3. Initial call is down to 4100 for wave 1, up toward 4325 for wave 2, down to 3700 for wave 3, up to 3900 for wave 4 and final Primary wave 3 bottom around 3385. Will provide deeper analysis over the coming days. What is the cause of this massive projected slide? China-Taiwan? Semi-conductor manufacturing issues? Debt Bubble? Baby Boomer House Downsizing (cannot happen that fast)? More credit rating declines? Russia? US political party uncertainties? New wars? Other Black Swan?
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
5
Testing Theory One Moves Market…Last night I posited 3 theories: 1) We are still in Intermediate wave A up 2) Intermediate wave C (and Primary wave 2 up) will end this week 3) The market topped last Friday at the close I went into theories 2 and 3 last night but wanted to dedicate more time to theory 1 which will occur here. I first placed the Minor waves (yellow) where they likely ended. I believe everything through Minor wave 4 is accurate. The last step is to project what Minor wave 5 would do based on the data from all prior waves. The models provided me the levels to the far right (coloring coding is spelled out in METHODOLOGY below). I next reviewed possible model agreement for time and price. The lengths appeared to remain less than 16 hours in length. Most models were between 7-12 hours. Prices agreed the most at 4415-4419 with secondary agreement at 4430-4434. Prior to today the high was 4418 and today reached a new high at 4421.76. My target window based on this data remained between 4415-4435. I next applied my beta testing derivative model to the data. It provided the white, yellow, and green boxes. The white box contained all historical end points which means the market top will likely occur in this window. It spanned 3-11 hours between 4393-4454. The median data from the derivative model provided the smallest green box which topped at 4423 (just above the current high). Taking all of these separate models I determined the market top will likely be around 4430 and last 10 hours. I applied this to another program which takes historical data and determines how much each micro wave comprises of the larger macro wave’s final length and movement. I took those median values which the white path pivoted at. Minute wave 1 was expected to last 1 hour and top at 4371.54, wave 2 was 1 hour with a low at 4352.95, wave 3 was 3 hours long with a top at 4410.65, wave 4 lasted a single hour bottoming at 4386.35, and the final 3 hours were for wave 5 to top at 4426.67. I then plotted the green Minute wave numbers based on the actual market swings thus far. It appeared waves 1 and 2 were pretty spot on. Minute wave 3 likely lasted 2 more hours with a higher top at Friday’s high of 4418. Considering all of these models it is quite possible the current market top is in. The next leg of the adventures should be down. I will complete another analysis tomorrow projecting where Intermediate wave B could end. There is still a chance theory 2 from yesterday has occurred or will occur, but the ultimate direction for the next 1-2 weeks should be down. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Drop soon, but how long?The movement of the past week has raised many questions as to where the market is which we will attempt to answer in this analysis. The long duration Intermediate wave A, followed up with a quick and tiny drop for Intermediate wave B presented characteristics I have compared to similar historical events. The best way to categorize this pattern is by comparing Wave A to Wave B’s duration (or hourly bars), movement, and rise over run or movement divided by duration. I took those values in the current case and compared them to historics to attempt to determine where Intermediate wave C could end. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A IS AT LEAST 3x LONGER THAN WAVE B? Currently, wave A’s duration of 50 trading hours was 3.8462 times longer than wave B’s 13. I studied similar instance where the ratio between A and B’s bars were between 3 and 5 to determine what could happen next. Based on the results I took the prior ratios of A/C and applied it to wave A’s actual 50 bar length to determine what C could do. The results are a mix between 7 and 38 trading hours for wave C. Of note, these are all less than wave A’s length. If the max hold true, wave C and the market top could occur no later than this Friday, November 17 at 1230 eastern time. While 7 trading hours is the lowest value, it could be an outlier so moving to the next lowest at 21 trading hours could place the low on or after the final hour of trading on Tuesday, November 14. Using the same process, the potential tops based on the A/C ratio that are possible are 4489.87 and 4501.87. I do not like any others greater than 4503. I next move over to the same concept but based on the expressed BC ratio for historical waves where A to B’s bars were between 3 and 5. The potential lengths max out at 38 hours again with a tight grouping around 28-30 hours. 29 hours is the first hour of trading on November 16. Of the potential tops, 2 of them are in still in play but likely to be hit within the first 1-2 trading days of this week at 4422.27 and 4441.24. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S MOVEMENT IS 6x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S MOVEMENT? Wave A’s movement of a 287.42 point gain divided by wave B’s paltry 47.26 point loss resulted in wave A being 6.0817 times larger than wave B. I studied historical occasions where wave A was 6 times larger than wave B to attempt to determine what could happen next. The potential lengths in this case appear to hold a 1:1 relationship which is why so many results indicate wave C can be 50 bars long. Some of these results are for micro waves wherein wave A may have only been 1 to 2 bars and the following wave C was also 1 to 2 bars. I will not consider the 50 bars as the current market is quite close to the top and 50 bars would take too long to get there. The potential lengths of interest appear to be in the 10 to 13, maybe 17 trading hour zone. Hour 10 will occur tomorrow within the first 3 hours of trading and hour 13 is later in the day. Hour 17 ends before 1230 eastern time on November 14. Nearly all of the project ed tops have occurred with the exception of 4478.88. While considering wave C from the B/C ratio and applying wave B’s length of 13 hours, all results point to 13 hours. This is not helpful, even though 13 is a length already derived and taken into consideration. Once again, most of the moves have already occurred except for four notables at 4433.11, 4446.68, 4462.09, and 4496.39. WHAT DOES WAVE C DO WHEN WAVE A’S RISE OVER RUN IS 1.5x LARGER THAN WAVE B’S RR? Wave A gained 287.42 points over 50 trading hours creating a rise over run of 5.7484. Wave B lost 47.26 points over 13 trading hours for a rise over run of 3.6354. Taking wave A’s value and dividing by wave B indicates Wave A was 1.5812 times larger. This is not an unusual value as B waves are corrective and most of the time shorter and retrace less than wave A moved. I researched similar instances where the A to B ratio was between 1.5 and 1.7 to determine possible wave C reactions. This generated a much larger list of results with 60 matches. Potential wave C lengths are 7, 8, 10, and 13. Potential market tops of 4459.37 and 4478.88 are possible. The values based on historic B/C rise over run relationships max out at a length of 13 bars again. The only potential tops to occur are 4451.35 and 4496.39. Another application of historical studies place lines correlating to percentages on charts for potential movement retracement and movement extensions. There is too much data to list all possible datapoints but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Potential reversal levels based on historic Intermediate wave Cs in Primary wave 2s have strongest agreement of reversal between 4415-4419, and secondary is 4430-4434. Similarly, based on data for waves ending in 2C2C, strongest agreement is at 4515-4519 with shared secondaries 4415-4419 and 4485-4489. Lastly, the broad data for waves ending in 2C indicates the market top could also be at 4415-4419, with secondaries at 4420-4425. Bottom Line Analysis: There are three major things to consider. The first is that all movement so far is only Intermediate wave A. While this is possible, Intermediate wave B will likely begin soon with a drop. The second theory is Intermediate wave C will end this week. We will likely see upward movement likely no higher than 4500 this week with my primary target below 4471 before Wednesday. I like the values between 4459-4462. Playing this second theory out, median historical models have Minor wave 1 inside of Intermediate wave C at 1 hour top at 4390.29, wave 2 down in 2 hours at 4349.60, wave 3 at 3 hours long high at 4423.27, wave 4 down to 4382.76 in an hour and final wave 5 to 4456.04 in 2 hours. Actual wave reversal points are: Some of our historical levels to consider pointed to a top around 4415-4416 to include. Some of our possible durations were at 7 trading hours as well which would have concluded with Friday’s close where the market peaked at 4418.03. Many models are hinting at the market top being in. After Friday’s market close, Moody’s downgraded the US Credit Rating. This could see declines on Monday. While I think theory two is possible, theory three cannot be discounted. We will see how trading begins on Monday and Theories 1 and 3 both should begin with declines on Monday, and it could take a week to actually know which one is unfolding. Once Primary wave 2 is over, I am initially projecting a near thousand-point loss in the S&P 500 index by May 2024. The cause is unknown, I have been looking at China invading Taiwan for over a year. I figure this could cripple the semiconductor industry which controls much of the things we use throughout the world whether a conflict destroys the manufacturing ability or hands monopolistic control to the Chinese, the outcome will likely be devasting in the short-term. Nearly everything in the world relies on a chip or component moving through Taiwan, as the world’s eggs are basically in one basket. METHODOLOGY As a data scientist, I operate a modified wave theory loosely composed of rules and principles from Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. I develop theories based on suspected wave locations in time and lay out hypotheses to test. Once the movement occurs, I determine which path played out and repeat the process for the next movement.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Down Big After Monday?We are likely still in Minor wave 4 moving upward. It was originally forecasted to last 7 to 10 to 13 hours. The 7th hour will be the first hour of trading on Monday. The 5 minute chart has a potential wave structure so far if we are inside of Minuette wave 3 inside Minute wave C upward: The market could open upward or move up in the first hour of trading. The median historical models are pointing to a high around 4420, I am not sure it will go that far based on the amount of completed movement already but this is definitely a wait and see situation. I am more ready for the next decline which could begin as soon as tomorrow. For now I am projecting Minor wave 4 to end before 1330 eastern time tomorrow at a high of 4405. I am doing this to forecast the final Minor wave 5 bottom. This would mean Minor wave 4 lasted 10 hours, gain 69.69 points for a movement retracement of 44.96%. The most specific models (pink lines) for Minor wave 5s in Intermediate wave 3s in Primary wave 1s is pointing at a minimum movement extension of 158.43% which is 4244.73 and aligns with one of the forecasted Intermediate wave 3 bottoms of 4248.04. The median and third quartile extension point to a low around 4204-4210. These models also agree on a length of 25 hours which puts the low at this Friday. This is pointing to at least a 160 point drop in 4.5 days which would likely require constant bad news this week. Second most agreement on length is only 11 hours which would be even more steep. The next set of models (light blue) on slightly broader data has a wider movement range between 110.57%-191.67% with the median at 167.775% or a bottom at 4230.25. There is not a strong agreement on duration as it is spread between 6-27 hours. The next broader dataset (yellow lines) have a much higher bottom than the specific models as the range 4237.71-4307.59. Model agreement on duration is quite spread out as well with 22-27 hours carrying interest while larger agreement can be found in the 7-15 hour range. Monday is quiet on the scheduled economic data front which could allow the upward drift. Tuesday has home sale figures for July along with Fed speakers. Any mention of further rate hikes is likely unwelcomed news, especially for tech and high debt companies. Wednesday is mortgage numbers, building permits, manufacturing PMI and new home sales along with energy stockpiles. Thursday is jobless claims and durable goods orders for July and Jackson Hole kicks off on Friday with consumer sentiment numbers coming in within the first hour of trading. Highlights of the analysis are a minimum 160 point drop at some point this week. I originally thought slightly unmanageable but we are finishing an Intermediate wave 3 which will have more steep movement and the economic data along with the Federal Reserve speeches are the perfect fuel for such an event.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
2
Can we end up tomorrow?We are either still in Minor wave 3 down or may have begun Minor wave 4 up. Based on the current data, Minor wave 4 should last 7 to 10 to 13 hours. The 7th hour is near the close on Friday and the other targets would be Monday. After Minor wave 4 up is completed, Minor wave 5 should take the market down some more to newer lows next week. Minor wave 3 so far has extended 192% beyond Minor wave 1 which is very close to the original targets. In fact I was only off by an hour in placing the end time for Minor wave 3 (if it is actually finished of course). The retracement levels in the middle relate to Minor wave 4 potential endpoints. The pink levels are the most specific datasets, light blue are slightly less specific and then yellow goes more broad. Best forecast right now is a top between 4410-4420 by midday Monday
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Early High on Friday Followed By New Weekly Low Tomorrow?If we are in Intermediate wave 1 down, we are likely near the end of Minor wave 4 up. Here is confirmation of wave 3 of 3 with the pink bars aligning in the bottom indicator at Minute wave 3 (green) inside of Minor wave 3 (yellow): There is a chance Minor wave 4 up has finished and was only 2 hours long. While the other likely option and one pursued in this chart is that Minute wave B has likely finished or could finish near the open. If Minute wave B ended with the low from August 3rd, then wave C will likely conclude within the first 3 hours of trading on August 4th. Strongest model agreement has wave 4 lasting 6 hours which would mean the top occurs within the first hour of trading. Secondary and tertiary models point to a likely maximum length of 8 hours (the third hour of trading on August 4th). The possible reversal levels are based on the following datasets in order from most specific to current wave location to more broad datasets. Light Blue levels are possible locations of market top tomorrow Yellow is slightly less specific than light blue White is most broad dataset The muted pink color represents specific data for Minute wave 4s in Minor wave 1s in Intermediate wave 1s. Basically the high tomorrow will occur within the first or second hour of trading and not go above 4550. Most conservative zone for the top is between 4524-4536. If the high from August 3rd is not surpassed on August 4th, the market will likely head down (and is already) into the final wave 5 of Intermediate wave 1. Initial loose projection is for this near-term market bottom to occur next week. Once confirmation of Minor wave 4's endpoint is recorded, Minor wave 5 will be projected.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
6
If the top is in, we find the bottomStill awaiting additional price confirmation we are in Cycle wave C downward, but here is the current forecast if the current market top holds. My hourly program generated the usual waypoints based on historical data. Interestingly enough, Cycle wave A (the downward period between January – October 2022 was 1365 trading hours. Not to be outdone, Cycle wave B upward (October 2022 to July 2023) was 1366 trading hours. A common ABC relationship at times is the length of A plus the length of B equaling the length of wave C. I have outlined the most common lengths the program agreed on regarding the length of cycle wave C and placed them vertically on the chart. Of course 2731 hours is one of those values which could place the possible bottom as late as February 2025. The market bottoms based on most specific dataset to the current wave structure are the light blue levels, next slightly broader dataset produced the yellow levels, and the broadest dataset of waves ending in 2C are the white levels. Based on these potential lengths and overall movements, I determined where Primary wave 1 should bottom based on historical data and each yellow outlined boxed represents these factors. I generally do not trade too much during the first wave, but instead allow the first wave to finish and then begin buying and selling based on the finalized data and historical relationships for expected movement. If Cycle wave C is 910 trading hours long, then the smallest box would likely contain the location of Primary wave 1’s bottom. The left side of this rectangle is the minimum length of time based on historical Primary wave 1 data and therefore the timeframe that wave 1 would likely reach at a minimum. The right side of this rectangle represents the third quartile of historical movement and therefore a possible maximum timeframe for wave 1’s bottom to occur. The additional boxes do the same regarding left and right bounds and all boxes correlate with the next duration in order (i.e. if the overall length is 1366 hours, the bottom should occur between the left and right bounds of the next largest rectangle). Rectangles were created for 910, 1366, 1821, 2047, 2731, and 3415 trading hours. The top and bottoms of the box relate to the potential market bottoms for the bear market. The top of the smallest box relates to the minimum historical movement if the market bottom is at 3328.09. The bottom of this same box relates to the third quartile of historical data for 3328.09. If the bottom ends between the top and bottom of this box, the market bottom could be around 3328.09. The tops and bottoms of the next box are related to an overall market bottom around 3271.95. Rectangles were created for market bottoms of 3328.09, 3271.95, 3183.44, 2972.71, 2878.89, and 2733.44. What does all this mean? Once Primary wave 1 ends, the bottom should fall in one of these boxes. We could use the endpoint to potentially rule out what the duration and bottoms WILL NOT be for this bear market. If the bottom of Primary wave 1 falls in the small rectangle which overlaps all rectangles, nothing can be ruled out yet. Additionally, the bottom of Primary wave 1 should get below 4300 at the very least, considering the market is above 4500 today, we are looking for at least a 200 point drop over the next few weeks. My initial projection for the market bottom from last July was around 2400 by March 2025. Based on all the completed data to this point, I am looking for a bottom sooner and likely in the middle of the fall of 2024. The bottom should not be as deep as originally forecasted either, and my initial call is likely no lower than 2700, but likely below 2900. So far it looks like the country’s credit rating was the first of many dominos to fall over the next year as the market moves lower. I still think a China v. Taiwan situation could do the most damage, but we shall see what happens. Oil prices have been creeping up as well over the past month and the inflated costs of goods have not begun to take form yet. Companies will be refinancing their debts at higher and higher levels moving forward and nowhere near enough companies have failed yet. Big ones will fall, and best guess as at least 4 big names go down before the market is done moving down.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Homing in on market topIf we are in the final Intermediate wave 5 up in Cycle wave B, it is possible we are in the final Minor wave up (wave 5) as well. This would mean Minor waves 1 and 2 lasted a single day, wave 3 was 2 days and wave 4 was 3 days. The original projections for Intermediate wave 5 are the vertical white lines marking the end of day 10 and day 12 as well as the movement extension levels to the outside right side of the chart above. The inner extension levels relate to Minor wave 5’s movement in relation to Minor wave 3 as described below. Based on waves ending in BC55, the length of Minor wave 5 has strongest model agreement at 1 trading day long, with secondary at 6 days long. All models point to a possible extension of Minor wave 1’s movement to place the top around 4519. Based on models ending in C55, strongest model agreement remains at 1 day long, secondary is 2 days, third is 3 days, fourth is 5 or 6 days. The quartile extension levels are 114.82%, 139.60%, and 148.58% which are represented by the yellow lines. Finally is the data for waves ending in 55, wherein the models strongly point to 1 day, then 2 days with third agreement at 3 days. The remaining models are not close and pick up at 5 days. These leads me to believe that Minor wave 5 will likely not surpass 3 trading days in length which places the top on or before the close on Tuesday July 11. Comparing the levels for Minor 5 and matching the levels from Intermediate 5, the top will not likely occur above 4520. Best guess is the market closes the final gap created yesterday and likely tops out around 4484 and possibly no higher than 4500. CPI number comes out Wednesday before the open. There is strong belief the Fed raises rates again soon based on the jobs report from yesterday. A CPI reading with an equal or higher number would all but cement this fact meaning a new top would not occur on Wednesday and would occur Tuesday at the latest. The market will likely close the gap today or it already has which could make this Minute wave 3 up. The day could close stronger, a slight pullback could occur Monday and the final top would be Tuesday. The Fed does not meet until later this month which would mean CPI would likely need to increase in order to spook the markets enough to cause the top now. Many companies have loads of debt that can no longer be refinanced at next to 0% interest levels which will further cause a sell-off and degrade their already inflated evaluations.
SP:SPX
by StockSignaler
What Does The Market Future Look Like? Look HereSo far Southern Company has moved with the market. Historics say we may move down a little more before moving up by November. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 24, 2021 with a closing price of 63.16. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 63.81 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.1% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.235% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.544% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 13 trading bars; half occur within 23 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:SOLong
by StockSignaler
Union Pacific Signaling Buy Train AheadBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 201.93. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 203.49 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.45% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.132% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.312% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 22 trading bars; half occur within 32 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:UNPLong
by StockSignaler
Another Big Pharma Finding The BottomBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 38.93. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 39.62 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.748% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 6.534% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.869% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% rise must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 20 trading bars; half occur within 30 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:GSKLong
by StockSignaler