AMD Strongest buy signal in more than a yearAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) is approaching the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), extending a 10-month correction of Lower Highs and Lower Lows since the March 04 2024 High. The last time the price came close to the 1W MA200 was more than a year ago on the October 23 2023 1W candle, which was the previous Higher Low of the Bull Cycle that started on the October 10 2022 market bottom.
The 1W MA200 has been basically holding as the stock's long-term Support since the January 23 2023 bullish break-out and has been successfully tested 3 times already. The 1W RSI shows that the corrective wave since October 2024 is very similar to those that led to the previous 2 bottoms. In fact the whole correction since the March 2024 High has been almost -48%, approximately the same as the late 2022 correction.
Notice also that so far each Bullish Leg (green Channel Up) rose by +141.87%. If the 1W MA200 holds yet again and kick-starts the new Bullish Leg, we expect another +141.87% rally until the next market Top, so we set a Target at $280.00.
As a side-note, see how accurately the Sine Waves display the previous two bottoms, indicating that there is a high degree of symmetry on this Bull Cycle.
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Stocksignals
TSM: Growth and Charts Align for 15%+ Target?Hey Realistic Traders, Will NYSE:TSM Create a New All-Time High? Let’s Dive In....
TSMC is the world’s largest contract chipmaker. Recent Earning Call reported whooping third quarter revenue of $759.69 billion, marking a YoY increase of 36.5%. The performance is beating the market forecast. Double Digit Revenue Growth is driven by demand for AI Chips especially with major client like NVIDIA & Apple and 3-nanometer &5 nanometer technology in Smartphones. TSMC Chief Financial Officer Huang Renzhao shared optimistic project for the company. TSMC expect Q4 quarterly revenue growth of approximately 13%, sligtly above the market the market expectation.
Strong AI-Related demand predicted to persist for year, inlined with the company’s perfomance and expectation. The positive sentiment support our bullish call on NVIDIA.
Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, TSM has remained above the EMA200 line for over a year, maintaining its bullish trend. On August 5, 2024, TSM rebounded impulsively from the EMA200 line after completing an ABC correction pattern, signaling the start of a new bullish wave.
The second and fourth corrective waves have retraced to the Fibonacci 0.382 and 0.618 golden ratios, respectively, aligning with Elliott Wave rules that typically indicate further upward movement.
In addition to the Elliott Wave analysis, a breakout from a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern has been identified. Such breakouts often signal the continuation of the prevailing market trend.
Therefore based on these technical analysis, I foresee a potential upward movement toward the first target at $217.85 or second target at 234.46
This outlook remains valid as long as the price holds above the stop-loss level at 177.95
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Taiwan Semiconductor."
Roblox | Where Kids Thrive, Stocks Pump and Gamers High FiveRoblox Economics: Teaching 13 Year Olds How to Out Monetize Wall Street
RBLX surges 50% since our first signal so let’s explore its potential upside
From PlayStation to Paychecks: How Roblox Gamified the Economy
From hosting virtual concerts with millions of participants to offering user generated games rivaling major studios, Roblox has evolved into a cultural phenomenon nearly 20 years after its PC debut. It is reshaping the social gaming and entertainment landscape.
CEO Baszucki Says Roblox Saves Lives; Haters Say It Destroys Wallets!
Founder CEO David Baszucki shared:
“Our mission is to connect 1 billion people with optimism and civility. This resonates deeply with me, as several parents have told me their children’s lives were saved through connections made on Roblox”
Roblox was already a standout in last year’s Future 50 ranking for its unique value. Currently, over 3 million creators develop games and experiences using Roblox Studio, its proprietary development tool. The platform’s economy thrives on its in-game currency, Robux, rewarding creators based on user spending. For instance, Uplift Games, a Roblox-exclusive studio, supports a 60 person team.
Two core growth drivers
-Content loop:High quality content attracts users, who then inspire the creation of even more content.
- Social loop:Increased participation enhances the platform's appeal to new users.
Exploring Roblox’s Expanding Universe
-User Generated Content (UGC):Like YouTube, Roblox empowers creators of all skill levels to share their visions.
- A Growing Metaverse:Beyond gaming, it hosts virtual events and educational activities, positioning itself as a hub for social interaction.
-Broadening Demographics: Once dominated by young users, Roblox now attracts older audiences. In Q3 2024, users aged 13+ made up 60% of its user base, up from 57% the previous year.
Roblox by the Numbers
-Daily Active Users (DAUs):89 million, up 27% YoY, with strong growth in APAC (+37%) and a 59% rise in Japan.
-User Engagement:20.7 billion hours logged, growing 29% YoY.
-Q3 Bookings:$1.1 billion (+34% YoY), reflecting robust user spending.
-Regional Bookings:North America (62%) and Europe (19%) dominate.
The October 2023 PlayStation launch doubled Roblox’s console presence, boosting both users and bookings. To attract console studios, Roblox announced a 70% revenue share for items priced $49.99 or higher, aiming to encourage premium content.
Challenges and Opportunities
-Short Seller Allegations: In October, Hindenburg Research accused Roblox of inflating metrics and neglecting child safety, highlighting its ongoing unprofitability. Despite initial concerns, the claims lacked substantial evidence.
-Profitability Issues: Operating margins remain negative (-30%), with high infrastructure, safety, and AI costs. Expense management is critical for turning a profit.
- Advertising Growth: Partnerships with DoubleVerify and Shopify pave the way for in-platform ads and merchandise. With users averaging over two hours daily, this represents untapped potential.
-Virtual Economy Improvements: Enhanced discovery features increased payers by 30% to 19 million, with a 6% rise in bookings per DAU.
- Cash Flow Strength: Free cash flow hit a record $218 million (+266% YoY), driven by efficient cost management.
- Stock-Based Compensation (SBC): SBC equals 29% of revenue, diluting shares (~3% annually). While common in tech, this high level raises concerns for long-term investors.
Future Outlook
Roblox raised its FY bookings guidance to $4.36 billion (+24% YoY). Achieving sustainable growth while tackling profitability challenges, content moderation, and investor dilution will determine its long-term success. The company’s ability to navigate these issues will shape its legacy in gaming and beyond.
Gallantt Ispat looking to gallop ahead. Gallant Ispat Ltd. engages in the manufacture of steel and steel products. It operates through the following segments: Agro, Iron and Steel, Power, and Real Estate.
Gallantt Ispat Ltd. CMP is 352.55. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Growth in Quarterly Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin (YoY). The Negative aspects of the company are High Valuation (P.E. = 26.7), High promoter stock pledges and Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income.
Entry can be taken after closing above 356 Targets in the stock will be 366 and 377. The long-term target in the stock will be 390 and 400. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 334 or 297 depending upon your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Can DXYZ Reach $199? Here’s How!Good morning, trading family!
DXYZ is at an important point, and here’s what could happen:
-If the price breaks above $62.74: We’re looking at a first target of $127, with the potential to climb to $199 or higher.
-If the price falls below $56.12: We could see a drop to levels between $43-$46.
This is a setup worth watching. Let’s stay sharp and trade smart!
Wellness Tips of the Day:
Eat brain-boosting snacks: Reach for a handful of nuts, some fresh fruit, or a piece of dark chocolate to keep your energy and focus steady throughout the day.
Comment, like, follow, or send me a message if you want more details on this analysis!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Quantum Corp (QMCO): Eyes on $70—Can We Go Higher?Good morning, trading family!
Wellness Tip Of The Day
Dehydration can impair focus and decision-making. Keep water or herbal tea at your desk and sip consistently throughout the day. Aim for at least 2 liters daily, adjusting for your activity level.
Now Lets Get into it:
Quantum Corp ( NASDAQ:QMCO ) has broken through a key resistance level at $29.91, which has now turned into solid support. With that level holding strong, the next big target is $70. If the momentum continues and we don’t see a pullback, there’s potential for a push to $88 as well.
This is shaping up to be an exciting move. Let’s stay sharp and see how the price reacts as we approach these key levels!
Comment, like, follow, or send me a DM if you’d like a deeper dive into this analysis!
Kris/Mindbloome Trading
Trade What You See
Micron Technology (MU): Is a Big Move Just Around the Corner?Good morning, trading family!
Micron’s price has been moving between $92.90 resistance and $84.26 support, and it looks like a big move could be coming soon. Will we see a breakout to higher levels, or a pullback to retest support?
This is one of those setups where being patient and watching how the price reacts at these levels can really pay off. Stay ready, and let’s tackle this opportunity together!
Comment, like, follow, or send me a DM if you want a deeper analysis or more insights!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Atlassian | Transitioning from Server to Cloud & Now to AI Atlassian’s Secret to Success: Free Stuff, Fancy Upgrades, and Lots of AI
In 2020, Atlassian, the Australian software leader known for tools like Jira and Confluence, initiated its transition to a cloud-first model, phasing out its legacy Server business. This strategic pivot has reshaped its revenue model and driven significant growth.
Cloud Momentum
Atlassian’s Cloud revenue surged 31% year-over-year in Q1 FY25 to $792 million, surpassing investor expectations. The transition highlights the company’s agility and sustained expansion in a competitive market.
SaaS Growth Strategy
Atlassian employs a "land-and-expand" SaaS model, attracting customers with low-cost or free products and encouraging upgrades to premium features and additional solutions.
Key Highlights
-💻 300,000+ customers, including 84% of Fortune 500 companies, spanning software development, IT, and business teams.
- 🏢 524 enterprise customers generating $MIL:1M+ ARR, reflecting deeper engagement with large organizations.
-🤖 AI adoption: A 10x increase in Atlassian Intelligence usage this year has driven premium upgrades and enhanced productivity.
Innovation and Expansion
Atlassian continues to focus on product-led growth with recent launches like Atlassian Focus for enterprise strategy and Advanced Editions , offering premium features for existing tools.
Financial Perspective
-Profitability challenges: Q1 FY25 saw a $32 million operating loss (3% loss margin), a slight decline from last year. This is due to sustained R&D investments (51% of revenue, +2pp YoY), reflecting a long-term growth strategy over immediate profitability.
-Server phase-out: Ending the Server business has boosted cloud and data center revenue.
-Data Center growth: Revenue grew 38% YoY to $336 million, serving as a transitional solution for customers not yet ready for full cloud migration. Atlassian is positioning Data Center as a stepping stone rather than a permanent option.
Future Outlook
Atlassian is well placed to leverage rising demand for cloud based tools and AI advancements. However, challenges persist, including macroeconomic uncertainties, competition, and profitability pressures.
While generative AI offers new opportunities, it also presents risks such as increased competition and the potential slowing of paid seat growth, a critical revenue stream. Atlassian’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine its long-term success in this transformative phase.
Devyani International can give a tasty breakout. Devyani International Ltd. engages in the development and operation of quick service restaurant. It operates through Within India and Outside India segments. The company manages brands like Costa Coffee, KFC, Pizza Hut, Vangoo and The Good Street.
Devyani International Ltd. CMP is 172.37. The Positive aspects of the company is Company with Zero Promoter Pledge and increasing revenues for last 4 Quarters. Book value of the share is also increasing for the last 2 years. The Negative aspects of the company are extremely high Valuation (P.E. = 644.2), Companies Increasing Debt as per Annual Report, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash.
Entry can be taken after closing above 174 Targets in the stock will be 181, 188 and 198. The long-term target in the stock will be 205, 218 and 223. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 167 or 158 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Cyient DLM looking like it will deliver. Cyient DLM Ltd. engages in providing total electronic manufacturing solutions. It operates through the following segments: Aerospace and Defense, Medical, Industrial, and Transportation and Telecom. It offers design-led manufacturing (DLM) solutions.
Cyient DLM Ltd. CMP is 677.85. The Positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge. The Negative aspects of the company are extremely high Valuation (P.E. = 79.8) and Inefficient use of shareholder funds.
Entry can be taken after closing above 686 Targets in the stock will be 722, 747 and 775. The long-term target in the stock will be 802, 841 and 869. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 649 or 599 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Micron ($MU) is Poised for Action – Here’s What’s ComingMicron is sitting at a major decision point, and the next move could be big. Here’s the game plan:
If we drop below $84: Things could get bumpy, with possible corrections to $74, $70, or even $63–$64.
If we break above $93: The sky’s the limit, with targets at $100, $110, and maybe even $138 on the horizon.
This is one to watch closely. Big moves are coming, so stay sharp and ready to ride the wave!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Will NVDIA rise at the expense of APPLE?We have seen in the past few days the NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) to be holding its ground better than other tech giants that got more inflated during the recent run like Tesla.
What we've discovered by running some regression tests among top 30 cap stocks, is a very interesting relationship between NVDIA and Apple Inc (AAPL). Though most people might think that the two have completely parallel paths on their growth, we found out that at times, their correlation has been negative.
Our sample data starts 2 years ago from the October - November 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. As you can see, this is where the first divergence between the two stocks started, with NVDIA rising to spearhead the recovery to a new Bull Cycle, while Apple was lagging behind and falling.
What followed was a period where naturally both stocks rose, which led to the first 'Bear' stage, what we call Phase 2 where both stocks showed a synchronized weakness (with Apple correcting more however).
Then after a recovery for both to their highs, NVDIA formed a Bull Flag, which led to Phase 3 (similar to the late 2022 price action): Apple topped and started falling aggressively, while NVDIA started an impressive rally.
Again a period of price increase for both stocks followed, which has led to a new Phase 2 (July -October 2024). In line with their 2-year pattern, Apple has been rising since the November U.S. elections, while NVDIA has formed a new Bull Flag.
If the price action continues to replicate this model, then we may see a new Phase 3, where Apple starts to correct while NVDIA's Bull Flag leads to a strong rally.
So do you think potential Apple capital outflows will turn into inflows for NVDIA?
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HEG Skyrockets! All Targets Nailed with RisologicalHEG on the 1-Hour timeframe successfully executed a long trade with all targets from TP1 to TP4 hit with remarkable precision.
Trade Highlights:
Entry: ₹428.35
Targets Hit:
TP1: ₹448.85
TP2: ₹482.00
TP3: ₹515.20
TP4: ₹535.70
Stop Loss: ₹411.75
Technical Insights:
This trade showcased the accuracy and reliability of the Risological Trading Indicator in identifying optimal entry points and scaling through multiple target levels. The upward trend was well-sustained, demonstrating confidence in the tool's ability to manage trades effectively.
MASTERCARD Huge sell signal emerged, hit 1D MA50 after 4 months.Mastercard (MA) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up that has given us very accurate trades. Our previous signal (April 02, see chart below), was a sell right on the pattern's top that easily hit our $440 Target:
Once more we see a long-term Top on this stock as the price almost priced a Higher High and on yesterday's Fed fueled pull-back, it hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 4 months (since August 06).
Apart from that, the 1D RSI has been on a Bearish Divergence of Lower Highs (against the Higher Highs of the Bullish Leg/ dotted Channel Up) since October 18. All such previous Bearish Divergences within this 2-year Channel Up, have started the Bearish Legs (red ellipses) of the pattern, which hit at least their 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels.
As a result, we have a high probability short signal at our hands, targeting $495.00 (Fib 0.382).
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TESLA Every pull-back is a buy opportunity. Is $1000 possible?It was almost 6 months ago (June 26, see chart below) when we made a seemingly unrealistic bullish call on Tesla (TSLA) for the time being, setting $400 as our first Target:
In fact, it was 8 months ago (April 15, see chart below) when we called Tesla's exact bottom, expecting its own 'Meta recovery moment' following lay offs of more than 10% of staff:
Obviously, you can say that you couldn't see that coming. Tesla not only broke above $400 but is about to hit the next psychological level of $500. In order to make better sense of this logarithmic rise and display it in a more effective way to you, we have borrowed some of our Bitcoin analysis tools: the Pi Cycle and the Mayer Multiple Bands.
What you see on this chart, are the Pi Cycle trend-lines 1 (orange) and 2 (green), which have been key Resistance and Support levels respectively during the majority of Tesla's historic run, combined with the MMB SD3 above (red trend-line) and MMB SD3 below (black trend-line), which have historically been the extreme Resistance and Support levels respectively. In the middle of all these is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which during the Parabolic Rally phases (like the one we are currently on), is Tesla's major Support.
All the above are applied on Tesla's key historic pattern: a Channel Up, defined by its middle Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618, 0.5, 0.382) and its extremes, the -0.382 Fib (caught the June 2019 market bottom) and the 1.382 Fib (caught the February 2014, February 2021 and November 2021 market tops).
At the moment the price just broke above Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) and hit the 0.618 Fib. While this is a strong short-term Resistance cluster and may force some investors to take profits, every such pull-back should technically be a buy opportunity from now on, as the market as already started its Parabolic Rally phase.
As you can see both previous Parabolic Rally phases hit the 1.382 Fib extension extreme, trading on the way up considerably above the 1W MA50 and with the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) as its loose Support.
Even though another test of that extreme would take the stock to incredibly high capitalization levels and cannot be justified without an applicable expansion of their product lines (from electric vehicles to A.I. and robotics), a $700 - $1000 target range by the end of 2025, doesn't seem so unrealistic if those products hit the market with real world applications.
In any case, every break above the Pi Cycle trend-line 1 (orange) has historically started Tesla's largest rallies (exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash, which was quickly recovered), so plan your strategy accordingly.
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BROADCOM made a Top on the 2year Channel. Potential danger aheadExactly 1 month ago (November 18, see chart below) we gave the buy signal on Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), which turned out to be a big success as shortly after the stock catapulted past our $223 Target:
This time however we share with you an analysis that is calling for profit taking on this amazing rally as technically it is coming to an end. The price hit yesterday the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Up, which has approached another 3 times during that time.
As you can see, the pattern's structured Legs and Phases are cyclical and repeat themselves. The current Top seems to be similar to the previous Highs (orange circles) that initiated the re-accumulation phases before resuming the uptrend for the final top (red circles) of the Bullish Leg.
Both of those pre-Top Highs (orange circles) and their re-accumulation phases that followed, touched the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) before the final rally of the Bullish Leg. As a result, we won't turn bullish again on AVGO until it tests the 1D MA200 again, which given the aggression of the recent pump, the pull-back could be equally strong.
After the re-accumulation Phase is completed, we will resume our long-term bullish Target of $285.00. That represents a +121.85% rise from the August 05 2024 Low, which is the % rise that both previous Bullish Legs had.
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Eicher Motors might motor along. Eicher Motors Ltd. engages in the development, design, manufacture, assembly and sale of two-wheelers, as well as related parts and accessories. It operates through Domestic and Overseas geographical segments. The Domestic segment includes sales and services to customers located in India. The Overseas segment includes sales and services rendered to customers located outside India.
Eicher Motors Ltd. CMP is 4838.50. The Positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company able to generate Net Cash - Improving Net Cash Flow, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge. The Negative aspects of the company are high Valuation (P.E. = 31.1), Promoter decreasing their shareholding, Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects, De-growth in Revenue, Profits and Operating Profit Margin and Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income.
Entry can be taken after closing above 4843 Targets in the stock will be 4931 and 4991. The long-term target in the stock will be 5059 and 5119. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 4603 or 4481 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
JSW Energy looking Energetic JSW Energy Ltd. engages in the business of power generation. It operates through the following business segments: Power Generation, Power Transmission, and Power Trading.
JSW Energy Ltd. CMP is 688.95. The Positive aspects of the company are Company with decreasing Promoter pledge, High Volume, High Gain, Top Gainers and High Momentum Scores. The Negative aspects of the company are extremely high Valuation (P.E. = 61.5), Companies with Increasing Debt, Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income, High promoter stock pledges.
Entry can be taken after closing above 701 Targets in the stock will be 719, 738 and 756. The long-term target in the stock will be 773, 792 and 809. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 642 or 582 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Tesla’s Next Move: Breakout or Pullback?Tesla’s sitting at a make-or-break level around $441. If we break through, we could be heading straight for $458. But if $441 doesn’t budge, we’re likely dipping back to the $415–$420 range for a breather.
Keep it simple: Watch $441. If it holds, look for the breakout. If not, stay ready for a pullback. Trading’s all about playing the levels—no need to overthink it!
KRIS/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
NVDIA Why buying in December is an excellent strategy.NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) has entered the 2nd half of December below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). On any other occasion that would've been alarming, for NVDIA however this presents the best long-term buy opportunity in a while.
The reason is simple and has to do with the amazing symmetry that the 2-year Channel Up (which NVDIA has been trading in) displays. Despite breaking below the 1D MA50, the price is still contained within the Channel Up, in fact it is very close to making direct contact with its Higher Lows trend-line. That would be a technical bottom, with the last Support marginally lower on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
On this pattern, we can see that the stock's price action is highly systemic and can be classified into the: a) Accumulation Phase (Rectangle) where the market engages into long-term long positioning again after the Channel Up tops (forms a Higher Highs) and b) the Bull Phase (green Channel Up) where the price enters the aggressive rally of the long-term Channel's Bullish Leg.
As you can see, the previous two Bullish Legs have risen by roughly +257.68%, one from the bottom of the Accumulation Phase (Leg 2) and the other from its December bottom (Leg 1). It is also quite evident on this chart that the month of December plays a critical significance for NDVIA. On December 2022 and December 2023 the true rally sequences of the Bullish Legs started.
As a result, we can expect this sideways, neutral price action that the company has been having lately to bottom by the end of December (2024) and initiate the hyper aggressive part of the new Bullish Leg (green Channel Up). Also, even if it repeats the less aggressive pattern of Leg 2 and rises by +257.68% from the Accumulation Phase's bottom, we can expect to see it rise by as high as $320 by this Summer.
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Oracle’s Cloud Conquest|Climbing Mount Hyperscaler with AI BootsWill Oracle Cloud Infrastructure aka OCI Emerge as the 4th Hyperscaler?
Although OCI hasn’t yet reached the scale of the top three cloud giants (AWS, Azure, GCP), it’s rapidly advancing, much like d’Artagnan joining the musketeers. Riding the AI wave, Oracle’s Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment surged by 52% to $2.4 billion in Q2. Over the past year, OCI has overtaken Salesforce and IBM, surpassing even Snowflake. Its next target, Alibaba Cloud, grew just 7% YoY to $4.2 billion in Q3. However, this impressive growth comes at a price—Oracle’s capital expenditure is expected to double in FY25 to meet AI demand.
Oracle Q2 FY25 Highlights
Key Metrics
-Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): A measure of future revenue from existing contracts. RPO grew 50% YoY, with Cloud RPO jumping nearly 80%, reflecting strong momentum. Sequentially, total RPO declined slightly from $99 billion in Q1 to $97 billion in Q2. 39% of this is expected to convert into revenue over the next year.
-Cloud Services Revenue: Up 24% YoY to $5.9 billion:
-IaaS: Grew 52% YoY to $2.4 billion, up from 45% in Q1, driven by OCI adoption for high-performance workloads and multi-cloud deployments.
-SaaS: Increased 10% YoY to $3.5 billion, with stable demand for cloud-based ERP, HCM, and CRM solutions.
- Fusion Cloud ERP: Gained 18% YoY to $0.9 billion.
-NetSuite Cloud ERP: Rose 19% YoY to $0.9 billion.
- Total Revenue: Increased 9% YoY to $14.1 billion, missing estimates by $20 million.
-Cloud Services & License Support: Up 12% YoY to $10.8 billion, with cloud services alone growing 24% YoY to $5.9 billion.
-Cloud License & On-Premise: Up 1% YoY to $1.2 billion.
-Hardware: Declined 4% YoY to $0.7 billion.
-Services: Dropped 3% YoY to $1.3 billion.
-Margins: Gross margin held steady at 71%, while operating margin improved 2 percentage points to 30%.
-Non-GAAP EPS:$1.47, missing estimates by $0.01
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
-Operating Cash Flow (TTM):** $20.3 billion (+19% YoY).
- Cash & Cash Equivalents:** $11.3 billion.
-Debt: $88.6 billion.
Q3 FY25 Guidance
- Revenue growth of 7%-9% YoY (10% expected).
- Cloud revenue projected to grow 25%-27% YoY, accelerating further.
Analysis and Insights
1.Momentum in Cloud Infrastructure
Oracle’s focus on AI workloads is paying off, with major clients like Meta, Uber, and TikTok driving GPU consumption up by 336%. The company also unveiled the largest AI supercomputer, featuring 65,000 NVIDIA H200 GPUs. However, a potential TikTok ban in the U.S. could pose a $2 billion revenue risk.
2.Growth Despite Missed Targets
While revenue and adjusted earnings missed estimates due to slower SaaS growth, cloud revenue of $5.9 billion was just shy of the $6 billion forecast. Shares dipped post-earnings but remain up nearly 70% year-to-date, exceeding most investors' expectations
3.Capex Surge for AI
Capital expenditures reached $4 billion this quarter, a sharp increase from under $7 billion in FY24. Management expects FY25 Capex to double, driven by AI demand, resulting in negative free cash flow ($2.7 billion used) for the quarter. These investments align with industry trends but may stretch the balance sheet.
4.Expanding Multi Cloud Partnerships
Oracle’s partnerships with Meta, AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud enhance its relevance in multi-cloud environments. These alliances enable seamless workload interoperability and help Oracle compete effectively while broadening its customer base.
5.Balance Sheet Challenges
Oracle’s net debt of $80 billion, despite robust $20 billion annual operating cash flow, restricts its ability to pursue aggressive growth strategies or acquisitions. Rising Capex could further limit flexibility.
6.Bullish Long-Term Outlook
Management projects total cloud revenue to exceed $25 billion in FY25, fueled by AI demand and OCI’s competitive positioning. Analysts remain optimistic about Oracle’s prospects, particularly in multi-cloud ecosystems and generative AI workloads.
This explains why Larry Ellison envisions Oracle’s data centers expanding tenfold
Kotak Mahindra looking positive again. Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. Engages in the provision of commercial banking services. It operates through the following segments: Treasury, Balance Sheet Management Unit (BMU) and Corporate Centre; Retail Banking; Corporate or Wholesale Banking; Vehicle Financing, Other Lending Activities; Broking; Advisory and Transactional Services; Asset Management; Insurance and Other Banking Business.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. CMP 1805.65 is The positive aspects of the company are Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 16.2), Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, RSI indicating price strength, Increasing Revenue every Quarter for the past 8 Quarters and Effectively using its capital to generate profit. The Negative aspects of the company are Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Increase in Provisions in Recent Results.
Entry can be taken after closing above 1806 Targets in the stock will be 1831, 1855 and 1883. The long-term target in the stock will be 1917 and 1947. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 1749 or 1682 depending on your risk taking ability.
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