AMAZON Under the 1D MA50 after 6 months. Is the bleeding over?Amazon (AMZN) has broken and closed below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 6 months (since October 27 2023). Last time this happened, the stock had already begun the 2nd Bearish Leg (-18.83% decline) of the 2-year Channel Up.
As a result, there's a real possibility for the stock to reach as low as the 0.382 Fiboancci retracement level and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form a new Higher Low near the bottom of the Channel Up and then rebound.
As long as the Channel Down of the Bearish Leg is intact and Amazon doesn't close a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, we will wait for a more comfortable buy at $160.00 and we will target $200.00 (+31.87% symmetrical rise as Dec 20 2023).
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Stocksignals
$TRNO #TERRENO AnalysisNYSE:TRNO #TERRENO for the 4th time is testing a 7 years old broken wedge , marks an oversold zone and an accumulation level.
Mizuho Securities Adjusts Price Target on Terreno Realty to $62 From $52, Maintains Neutral Rating.
40$ marks a significant key level demand for any upcoming fall.
#AHMEDMESBAH
APPLE Bouncing off extremely strong Support Cluster.Apple (AAPL) completed yesterday 3 straight green 1D candles, the longest such bullish streak in 3 months (since January 25). The rebound has been initiated inside the Lower Highs Zone that started after Apple's former All Time High (ATH) on January 04 2022.
The are a lot of recurring patterns involved as well, with one being that the current Channel Down that started on the December 14 2023 High, was rejected on the Resistance Zone that the previous Channel Down also did on the July 19 2023 High. That one made a Double Bottom on the Former ATH Lower Highs Zone after a rejection marginally above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before rebounding.
With the 1D RSI within a Channel Down as well since that High and having rebounded from its lowest level since February 2018, we have a very strong case for buying Apple, at least on the medium-term, targeting again the Resistance Zone's bottom at $198.00.
If it follows the pattern of the 2023 rally, we can even see it hitting the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at $211.00 or even higher by the end of the year since the pattern that on the January 03 2023 market bottom, is a Channel Up.
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HOME DEPOT Buy opportunity on the 1D MA200.Home Depot (HD) gave us last time (October 09 2023, see chart below) an excellent buy opportunity that quickly hit our 326.50 Target:
The Bullish momentum was so strong that it broke above the Triangle pattern and gave way to the emergence of a Channel Up. The recent 30 day correction since the March 21 High, can be technically seen as the new Bearish Leg of the Channel Up.
With the 1D MACD about to make a Bullish Cross, which has historically been an early buy signal for HD, we have the best buy opportunity at hand since October 27 2023, even though the downside can easily extend as low as 322.00 (-18.80% from the top).
This is good enough for us to buy and target initially the 1.236 Fibonacci extension at $415.00.
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TSLA → Daily analysishello guys...
based on my previous analysis of #tesla:
the main trend in the daily time frame is bearish so far!
I believe the trendline of the pattern will be breakout after retesting the S&D!
meanwhile, the price made a head and shoulders pattern and broke it out! so in a shorter time frame the price will fill the gap to touch the target of the pattern, then we can expect another downward movement!
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always do your research.
If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below, and I will answer them.
And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comment
Kokuyo Camlin looks like breaking a trendline resistance. Kokuyo Camiln were a single product company when started. Today company have achieved have over 2000 innovative products. Which is why Camel and Camlin are the most recognized stationery and art brand in India. Kokuyo Camlin Ltd. engages in the manufacture and market of stationery and education related products. Its stationery product portfolio includes art materials, artist colours, and marker pens. Kokuyo Camiln Ltd CMP is 140.35.
The Negative aspects of the company are High Valuation (P.E. = 33.40) and FIIs are decreasing stake. The positive aspects of the company are No debt, zero promoter pledge, improving annual net profit and improving cash from operations annual.
Entry after closing above 144. Targets in the stock will be 155, 160 and 165. Long term targets in the stock will be 172 and 179. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at closing below 127.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Gufic can make moves terrificGufic Biosciences Ltd. company was founded on July 23, 1984 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India is engaged in the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemicals and botanical products. It operates through the following geographical segments: India, Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, Australia and South America.
The Negative aspects of the company are High Valuation (P.E. = 38.20), Declining annual net profit, declining cash from operations annual and FIIs are decreasing stake. The positive aspects of the company are Low debt, Zero promoter pledge, MFs are increasing stake and Promoter holding increasing.
Entry after closing above 325. Targets in the stock will be 336 and 344. Long term targets in the stock will be 357 and 365. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at closing below 292.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
ESM2024 (S&P500) neutral atm, no further shorts allowed for nowWe are neutral on S&P futures after the recent drop. It is too early in the week to determine a high probability bias. We have taken out fridays high today (5058), and we might see further retracment to the upside. We are not considering a short bias on the daily chart, unless ESM2024 daily candle body closes below 4984. Until we get more insight troughout the week, we will stick to intraday scalping only.
There is potential buyside liquidity remaining at 5095 and sellside liquidity at 5006.
We will see if tomorrow gives us a setup to engage either one. As of now, I think 5006 sellside is the more likely one.
This is no financial advise! Do not risk real money on any idea published by us.
$TSLA #TESLA On an important wedge.NASDAQ:TSLA #TESLA
Is currently testing a significant 4 years old wedge for the 3rd time.
The stock has lost more than 60% in the last 10 months.
Inflation and Tesla's layoffs are the obvious drivers for the recent fall.
Below current level, is a free fall to a hard to anticipate zones.
Keep it simple.
#AHMEDMESBAH
[Weekly] $AMBA #Ambarella is attractive.NASDAQ:AMBA #Ambarella
is currently testing a significant level. The lower wedge of a 10 years old extended channel . This is the 6th time the band is being tested. Even though testing a wedge several times weakens it. However, below it is almost a technical free fall zone to the 11: 12$ mark.
Keep it simple.
#AHMEDMESBAH
Buy Low, Sell High: Meta and Nvidia's Opportunity NowBuying NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:NVDA : Balancing Risk and Reward
Despite the recent market downturn, the long uptrend and strength of Meta and Nvidia remain intact. While short-term market fluctuations may present challenges, the long-term growth potential of Meta and Nvidia outweighs the current market volatility.
Risk-Reward Profile:
While investing in any stock carries inherent risks, the risk-reward profile for Meta and Nvidia appears favorable at current levels. Despite short-term losses, utilizing volatility to compute a close stop-loss level can effectively manage risk in this negative environment while leaving ample room for potential gains. This strategy, frequently employed by seasoned traders, maximizes opportunities in turbulent markets.
Stop level: 480
Weekend Factor:
However, it is important to keep in mind the negative exposure to war-related news associated with any long trade carried before the weekend. There's no guarantee that Monday's open will align with or exceed the stop level, potentially resulting in larger losses than anticipated. Therefore, investors should carefully assess their risk tolerance and adjust their positions accordingly.
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The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in stocks carries risks, and individuals should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions
COINBASE around the 1D MA50 but the MA100 more likely to supportCoinbase Global (COIN) rose as high as our last target (March 05, see chart below) and has been pulling back since:
The best way to view this short-term correction is on the diverging Channel Up (blue) which started on the October 27 2023 bottom. As with the longer term Channel Up, it consolidates considerably below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), with the last (February 05 2024) Low finding support just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
As a result we expect a Higher Low for the diverging Channel Up close to 185.00, before start seeing the new Bullish Leg. In addition, we need to see the 1D RSI touching its 2-year Support Zone, which usually tends to touch it twice during an Accumulation Phase. The price also tends to Double Bottom. This means that there will be time most likely (always account for how strongly the Bitcoin Halving might do to the market) to identify the new bottom and most optimal buy entry based on the conditions above.
We are willing to buy there for the Bullish Leg that will follow and target $370.00, which is the top of the long-term Fibonacci Channel. Note that in case of a break-out, the price can even go as high as the 2.0 (blue) Fibonacci extension ($440.00), which is around the Fib level that the last two Higher Highs where priced.
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RIVIAN Last bounce before the bottom. Be ready to buy.Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the September 15 2022 High. The price action has been below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than 3 months (January 11) and with such aggressive selling, the price is approaching the bottom of the pattern.
With the 1D RSI on Higher Lows (Bullish Divergence) we expect a dead-cat-bounce towards the 1D MA50 on the 0.236 Fibonacci Channel level and then structure bottom around 7.80. That will be the time to go heavy on buys and target $17.00 (Fibonacci 0.618, which is where the last Lower High was priced at).
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JOHNSON & JOHNSON Time to start buying.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) quickly hit the $147.00 Target that we set on our very recent sell call (April 03, see chart below) and is now approaching the bottom of the massive 2-year Channel Down:
Even though based on the very reliable and consistent Sine Waves, the bottom might be a process that can take up to 2-months, the stock is low enough for medium-term investors to start considering adding buys.
On top of that, the 1D RSI is highly oversold below 20.00, the lowest it has been in more than 4 years (since February 28 2020)! As a result and since the Bearish Legs of this Channel Down have ranged within -14.78% and -17.58%, we are turning bullish on this stock, targeting $157.50 (minimum +13.00% rise as with January 22 2024 High).
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CAPE Fear: Is the Stock Market Headed for a Cliff Dive?
A dark cloud hangs over the seemingly sunny skies of the stock market. The culprit? A valuation metric known as the CAPE ratio, which is currently hovering near its third-highest level in history. This has some investors spooked, whispering fears of a potential market plunge. But is this cause for panic, or simply a cautionary sign?
The CAPE ratio, or cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, takes a company's average earnings over the past 10 years into account, rather than just the most recent year. This provides a smoother picture of a company's value and avoids distortions caused by short-term fluctuations. When applied to the entire S&P 500 index, it offers a snapshot of the overall market valuation.
Historically, a high CAPE ratio has often preceded significant market downturns. For instance, the dot-com bubble burst of the early 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis were both preceded by elevated CAPE ratios. This correlation has led some to believe that the current high CAPE ratio is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode.
However, the story isn't quite so black and white. Here are some factors to consider:
• Earnings Growth: A key caveat is that high CAPE ratios can be justified by strong corporate earnings growth. If companies are consistently generating more profits, a higher valuation might be warranted. While future earnings are never guaranteed, a healthy corporate sector with robust profit margins can support a higher CAPE ratio.
• Interest Rates: Interest rates play a crucial role in stock valuations. When interest rates are low, as they have been for the past decade, stocks become more attractive compared to bonds and other fixed-income investments. This can drive up valuations, even if underlying fundamentals haven't necessarily strengthened.
• Investor Psychology: Investor sentiment can also influence the market. If investors are feeling optimistic and bullish, they may be willing to pay a premium for stocks, pushing valuations higher. Conversely, fear and uncertainty can lead to a sell-off, causing a rapid decline in the CAPE ratio.
So, what does this mean for the future of the stock market?
• Caution is warranted: A high CAPE ratio is a signal that the market may be overvalued. Investors should be cautious and avoid blindly chasing momentum stocks. Diversification and a focus on long-term fundamentals remain crucial investment strategies.
• Not a guaranteed crash: A high CAPE ratio doesn't necessarily predict an imminent market crash. It simply suggests that future returns might be lower than those experienced in recent years.
• Focus on quality: Instead of chasing high-flying stocks with inflated valuations, investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals, a history of consistent earnings growth, and sustainable business models.
The current market situation calls for a balanced approach. While a high CAPE ratio is a reason for caution, it shouldn't trigger panic selling. Investors should be mindful of valuation metrics, but also consider factors like earnings growth, interest rates, and overall economic health. By adopting a prudent investment strategy and focusing on quality companies, investors can navigate this period of uncertainty and potentially weather any potential storms.
Ador Welding looking good for a bounce back. Ador Welding Ltd. is a holding company, which engages in the manufacture and sale of welding equipment. It operates through the following segments: Consumables, Equipment and Automation, and Flares and Process Equipment Division. The Consumables segment comprises of electrodes, wires, agency items related to consumables from Silvassa, Raipur, and Chennai plant. The Equipment and Automation segment includes equipment, spares, cutting products and agency items from Chinchwad plant.
Ador Welding Ltd. CMP is 1462.35. The Negative aspects of the company are High Valuation (P.E. = 23.1) and declining cash flow. The positive aspects of the company are increasing annual net profit, no debt, zero promoter pledge, MFs are increasing stake.
Entry can be taken after closing above 1479. Targets in the stock will be 1539 and 1590. The long-term target in the stock will be 1660. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 1337.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
GOOGLE Short-term correction is another longterm buy opportunityLast time we looked at Alphabet Inc (Google/ GOOG) almost two months ago (February 27, see chart below) we caught an excellent buy entry and even tough the price dipped some more after, it is approaching our 168.00 Target:
Yesterday's strong bearish 1D candle serves as an early signal that the stock can pull-back to its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again on the short-term before resuming the long-term bullish trend. After all this is not unfamiliar to Google's 15-month Channel Up pattern, which had a similar 1D MA50 pull-back on numerous occasions, the shortest of which has been -10.45%.
Due to the fair symmetrical attributes of the Higher Highs as well, we revise our Target and place it even higher at 175.00 (+22.18% projection from the expected Low).
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TESLA lays off more than 10% staff. Is this its 'META moment'?It was reported this morning that Tesla (TSLA) "will lay off more than 10% of its global workforce, an internal memo seen by Reuters on Monday shows, as it grapples with falling sales and an intensifying price war for electric vehicles".
The market has so far reacted with strong selling of more than -3% in early trading. But is this really bad news?
Not so long ago (November 09 2022), another high tech giant that was heavily decimated at the time, Meta Platforms (META), announced lay offs of around 13% of the company (more than 11000 employees). This was just 5 days after the November 04 2022 market bottom. The result (chart on the right) was an aggressive recovery above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which turned into a Support for 240 days straight.
Of course the fundamental difference is that the 2022 Low for Meta was the Bear Cycle bottom of the Inflation Crisis while Tesla's Channel Down has been the picture of its underperformance for almost a year relative to the rest of the market (and the Magnificent 7 in particular).
However it shouldn't be overlooked that such cost driven news are fundamentals capable of turning the profitability of a company around and Meta's case is such a representative example. Meta was massively oversold in November 2022 (-75% from ATH) and similarly Tesla is massively oversold now (-60% from ATH). Meta managed to completely recover and smash through to new All Time Highs (+38% from previous ATH). In November 2022 it was all doom and gloom for the social media giant and it is worth searching for news headlines at the time to see the similarities with Tesla's situation today.
Time will tell of course, but we wanted to bring this comparison to you and help you draw your own conclusions.
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