Stocksignals
ASML supported on the 1D MA50. Bullish unless it breaks.ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and after it broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) more recently on November 01 2023, it went on a more aggressive (dotted) Channel Up.
The 1D MA50 is the key to its price action as not only did it hold on the previous Higher Low (January 17 2024) but also two days ago, which is technically the latest Higher Low. Technically, as long as it holds, the trend remains bullish and we will be targeting the top of the blue Channel Up at 1200.
If the stock however closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and open a sell instead, targeting 900.00 (-15.57% decline as the March 12 2023 Low).
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Google's Dive: Next Stop Wave 2?
Google is currently experiencing a significant drop, just as expected, with a decline of more than 3%. We should soon be at a point to conclude Wave A of this correction, then move upwards into Wave B, and finally downwards into Wave C. The exact development remains uncertain. Google moves very similarly to Apple, yet they are not in an identical cycle. We don't foresee a possibility of a much deeper fall, perhaps only a retest of the $83.34 level. However, we shouldn't fall much below that. We're anticipating that we are in a Wave (2), which should reach between 50 and 78.6%. This places Google's level between $119 and $99 in this scenario. We will keep you updated on the type of correction—zigzag or flat—we are dealing with. For now, we strongly believe that we will soon see this Wave (2) materialize.
TESLA Is this a W-shaped recovery?Tesla (TSLA) held Support 1 (160.50) last Friday, in fact it touched it and rebounded immediately making a technical Double Bottom formation. Yesterday it broke and closed above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 04, providing s serious bullish continuation signal.
The most important development however, is that this Double Bottom has strong probabilities of giving a W-shaped recovery pattern. A break above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) will technically confirm that, as it will be the first time above it in 3 months (since January 09).
We can already see the 4H RSI on Higher Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence, which favors these probabilities. Our short-term Target is 205.00 (marginally below Resistance 2).
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DCM Shriram can make a recovery and give a Breakout. DCM Shriram Ltd. is a diversified company with business in agri, chemicals, plastics, cement, textiles and energy services. They are having two broad operational thrusts namely, the energy intensive businesses that include chloro-vinyl chain and cement and the agri-businesses that cover urea, sugar, hybrid seeds and agri-merchandised inputs. The business portfolio of the Company comprises of Chloro-Vinyl, sugar, Shriram Farm Solutions, bio seed, fertilizers, etc.
DCM Shriram Ltd. CMP is 954.4. The Negative aspects of the company are Moderately high valuation (P.E. = 28.7), declining annual net profit, MFs are decreasing stake. The company's Positive aspects are No debt, increasing cash from operations annual, Zero promoter pledge, FIIs are increasing stake,
Entry can be taken after closing above 955. Final Entry closing above 990. Targets in the stock will be 1029, 1055 and 1079. The long-term target in the stock will be 1109, 1145 and 1178. Stop loss in the stock can be 900 or 870 depending upon your risk taking ability.
The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Oracle: Is a Crash Inevitable?
Oracle is another stock we're adding to our analysis. Firstly we're particularly looking at the monthly chart to grasp the big picture. We believe that since the start of the entire cycle around the $3 mark at the turn of the millennium, there has been a rise to a maximum level of $127.5, marking the end of our Wave I or the 5-wave cycle. Now, we anticipate being in Wave II, which should retrace between 50% and a maximum of 78.6%, with our target entry at the 50% level, coinciding with the support zone of Wave (4). However, we firmly believe that we won't exceed $127 again unless we encounter an Expanded Flat scenario, where reaching 138% is still possible, but we should not surpass it. Therefore, Oracle presents a very bearish scenario over a long period. We will also look for possible short-term entries to potentially initiate positions.
LVMH Best time to buy is now.Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMH) recently broke below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and this is the most optimal buy opportunity for the long-term as following the 1D Golden Cross, a Channel Up is emerging.
This appears to be so far similar to the Channel Up of October 2022 - April 2023, which led the stock to its All Time High (ATH) at the time. Both sequences seem identical as they both started after a -30% decline with a 1D Death Cross, then found bottom and started the Accumulation process for a Double Bottom buy opportunity, which led to the eventual Channel Up.
That past Channel Up peaked just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we see a huge buy opportunity towards the end of the summer with our Target being $1150 (just below the 1.5 Fib ext).
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NOVO NORDISK on the 1D MA50 starts looking a buy again.Novo Nordisk (NVO) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again for the first time since December 18 2023 and after a long time it gives buy signals again. The correction came after the March 07 rejected at the top of the (dotted) Channel Up, following overbought 1D RSI levels before that for 2 weeks.
That is a pattern consistent with all previous Higher High formation of the Channel UP and then all rebounded after the 1D RSI hit its 1 year Support Zone. The final level to buy, if the price drops that low, would be the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
Our Targets are first $139.00 (Resistance 1) and finally $158.00 (top of the (dotted) Channel Up).
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Noble Corporation | NEEnergy stocks score biggest rise in a month as OPEC+ cuts begin
Energy stocks closed an otherwise mediocre week in strong fashion, as oil traders who have grappled with concerns over the global demand outlook may finally see signs of tightening in the oil market.
Saudi Arabia and Russia started the week announcing fresh production cuts that will bring total reductions by OPEC+ to 5M bbl/day, or ~5% of global oil demand.
Supporting prices this week, U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected and gasoline inventories posted a large draw, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.
But gains were capped as the Federal Reserve appeared to be headed for further interest rate hikes, possibly at its policy meeting later this month.
And while Saudi Arabia limits its production, supply is gaining elsewhere; Iran, for example, is increasingly circumventing U.S. sanctions, with oil shipments of ~1.6M bbl/day on average in May and June, according to Kpler and Petro Logistics, more than double the level of about a year ago and the highest since 2018.
Separately, the Biden administration said late Friday it will purchase another 6M barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Front-month Nymex crude oil (CL1:COM) for August delivery gained more than $2.00/bbl Friday to push the U.S. benchmark +4.5% for the week to $73.86/bbl, its highest settlement since May 24, while September Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed the week +4% to $78.47/bbl, its best settlement since May 1.
U.S. natural gas futures (NG1:COM) closed -7.7% for the week, settling at $2.58/MMBtu, as volatile weather in much of the U.S. complicated the outlook for demand.
ETFs: (NYSEARCA:USO), (BNO), (UCO), (SCO), (DBO), (USL), (DRIP), (GUSH), (USOI), (NRGU), (UNG), (UGAZF), (BOIL), (KOLD), (UNL), (FCG)
The top energy sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLE) finished the week -0.5%, placing it in the middle of the pack among the S&P's 11 sectors, but closed +2.1% on Friday, its biggest single-day gain in a month.
Oilfield services companies (OIH) Schlumberger (SLB), Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BKR) ranked as three of Friday's top four gainers on the S&P 500, +8.6%, +7.8% and +4.8%, respectively.
Top 10 gainers in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (RIG) +20.4%, (WAVE) +19.2%, (OII) +18.3%, (NE) +18.1%, (DO) +17.1%, (TDW) +16.4%, (NRT) +16.3%, (NINE) +13.9%, (IPI) +13.2%, (LBRT) +12.4%.
Top 5 decliners in energy and natural resources during the past 5 days: (ORGN) -12.7%, (PPSI) -11.8%, (NPWR) -10.7%, (MARPS) -9.9%, (MTR) -9.3%.
Since June of 2020, Noble Corporation Plc has undergone a substantial transformation while drastically reducing its total liabilities and ongoing financing expenses.Since June 2020, NE has filed and exited bankruptcy, acquired its former competitor Pacific Drilling, regained NYSE listing, and completed a merger with Maersk drilling. Over the period, total liabilities and quarterly net interest expenses were reduced 65% and 74% respectively.
Over the last several quarters, some offshore drillers have reported growing revenue.Quarterly revenue is plotted from June 2020 forward for NE and its offshore drilling peers. Recently, revenues across the industry have rebounded from their early 2021 lows. NE quarterly revenue (plotted in dark blue) has increased from $220M in mid-2020 to $586M in FQ4 22 (+166%).
While quarterly revenue has more than doubled recently, NE has also become profitable. Normalized net income has increased from -19% in mid-2020 to its most recent value of 23%. FQ1 23 estimated revenues are expected to remain elevated at $540.5M while decreasing slightly from FQ4 22 revenues of $586M.
Based on the peer average EV/Sales and estimated FY 23 revenue, NE's fair value share price was estimated at $ 62
TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR has one last Low to give.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) broke last month above the long-term Channel Up and immediately pull-back. So far it has been almost 1 month of sideways trading supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been holding since November 02 2023.
The 1D RSI is on a Channel Down, i.e. a Bearish Divergence and every time it formed this within the Channel Up, the stock corrected to at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) by -18.73%. This time the 1D MA200 is considerably higher, so with this Bearish Divergence giving more probabilities to extending the pull-back, we do expect one last Low but not as strong as the previous corrections.
This time a -18.29% decline from the top would make a healthy test of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), good enough to continue the long-term bullish trend with new buyers in the market. The 1D MA50 break, would be the confirmation. As a result, we are now set a short-term target on TSM at $129.00.
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JOHNSON & JOHNSON More pain along the way. SELL.Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) got rejected on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) Resistance Zone. It has been practically trading sideways since the start of the year and based on the Sine Waves, that priced the new Top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Down pattern.
The expected completion of a Bearish Cross this week on the 1W RSI, will confirm the Sell Signal, as all 3 previous Bearish Cross sequences were forme just after a Top. Though their declines ranged from -17.58% to -14.78%, we will use the October 10 2022 Low as an example and target the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level at 147.00 as since the Bullish Leg was limited, we expect an equally less aggressive Bearish Leg towards the bottom of the Sine Waves.
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Xiaomi: Next Big Bang on the Hong Kong Stock Market?
For another interesting Chinese stock, we're looking at the mobile phone manufacturer Xiaomi, trading on the Hong Kong Exchange. Hence, we're dealing with the Hong Kong Dollar, not the US Dollar. Overarchingly, we are also in a Wave III here. Wave II concluded its correction with a double bottom at HK$8.28. This chart adheres well to the Elliott Wave structure, showcasing many patterns that align well.
Currently, we believe we are in a subordinate Wave 3, having completed the subordinate Wave ((ii)) between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Unlike other stocks, we aim to place a market entry here, as we anticipate that we should not fall below the 78.6% level. Else we could come back to the low of 8.28 HKD.