Stocksignals
NETFLIX historic pattern targets $1500 in 2025.Last time we looked at Netflix (NFLX) was on its earnings release (October 21, see chart below), when we gave a strong bullish signal that easily hit our $840.00 Target:
Since 3 week ago, the price even broke above the dominant 1-year Channel Up and is now in search of a new pattern. This pattern can be found if we zoom out considerably on the 1W time-frame, where the underlying pattern since the U.S. Housing Crisis is a 25-year Channel Up.
The symmetry within this pattern is high and in fact since the June 2022 market bottom (which was a Higher Low on the Channel Up), the stock has been on a Bull Cycle. The Bear Cycle that preceded it had a massive decline of -77%. The last correction of this magnitude was the July 2011 - August 2012 Bear Cycle, which declined by -83%.
The two Bull Cycles that followed Netflix's golden years were identical (+825% and +847%). As a result, we assume that the current Bull Cycle will also rise by at least +825% from its bottom, which gives us a $1500 Target towards the end of 2025.
Notice also how both the 2012 - 2014 and 2022 - 2024 Bull Cycles had a 1W Golden Cross.
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S&P 500 Index→Simple Analysis SP:SPX The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024:
If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025).
What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support.
As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing.
APPLE targeting $265 at the top of the Channel UpApple (AAPL) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 03 2023 bottom. At the moment the price is on the pattern's second long-term Bullish Leg, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As long as this line holds, we expect the Bullish Leg to complete a +20.82% rise (similar to December 14 2023) from the U.S. elections low and target $265.00. The fractals are quite similar as the 1W MACD is forming now a Bullish Cross, in indentical fashion as November 20 2023.
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Aether on the verge of becoming active. Aether Industries Ltd. engages in the production of intermediates and specialty chemicals. It offers products for pharmaceutical, agrochemical, material science, coating, photography, additive, and oil and gas segments of the chemical industry.
Aether Industries Ltd. CMP is 904.10. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, RSI indicating price strength, High Volume, High Gain, The Negative aspects of the company are extremely high Valuation (P.E. = 148.5), Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects, Poor cash generated from core business - Declining Cash Flow from Operations.
Entry can be taken after closing above 905 Targets in the stock will be 947 and 986. The long-term target in the stock will be 1033 and 1072. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 863 or 780 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Navneet's chart looking neat. Navneet Education Ltd. engages in the manufacture of Maharashtra and Gujarat State Board Publication books, as well as stationery products. It operates through the following segments: Publication, Stationery, and Others. The Publication segment is composed of supplementary books such as workbooks, guides, and question banks which are based on the latest prescribed syllabus by state education boards under the brand names Vikas and Gala. The Stationery segment includes paper based and non-paper-based stationery under the brand names Navneet and Youva. The Others segment represents revenue from the generation of power by windmill, pre-school, and trading items.
Navneet Education Ltd. CMP is 148.89. The positive aspects of the company are Very attractive Valuation (P.E. = 4.3),Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge. The Negative aspects of the company are Companies with growing costs YoY for long term projects, Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income and MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter.
Entry can be taken after closing above 150 Targets in the stock will be 155, 162 and 168. The long-term target in the stock will be 174 and 179. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 142 or 131 depending on your risk taking ability.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Netflix - Please Buy This All Time High!Netflix ( NASDAQ:NFLX ) will retest the resistance trendline:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Netflix is currently perfectly breaking above the previous all time high and with a +16% candle of November, bulls are totally in control of this stock. If we look at previous cycles, there is a 100% chance that Netflix will now retest the upper resistance trendline of the reverse triangle.
Levels to watch: $1.200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
IRCON can move upwards after consolidation. IRCON International Ltd. engages in the provision of engineering and construction services. It specializes in major infrastructure projects, including railways, highways, bridges, flyovers, tunnels, aircraft maintenance hangars, runways, extra high voltage sub-stations, electrical and mechanical works, commercial and residential properties, development of industrial areas, and other infrastructure activities. The company operates through the Domestic and International geographic segments.
IRCON International Ltd. 225.88. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Effectively using its capital to generate profit and High Volume, High Gain. The Negative aspects of the company are High Valuation (P.E. = 23.1), MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter, Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter and Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income.
Entry can be taken after closing above 227 Targets in the stock will be 246, 265 and 285. The long-term target in the stock will be 316 and 352. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 180.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
$INTC GGWP Bankruptcy is coming. SHORTIntel Announces Retirement of CEO Pat Gelsinger
on December 2nd 2024.
Thy have launched many faulty processors, instead of fixing their fkup they started to flee.
Short it to 0.
I sadly have bought one of these laptops with new gen intel CPU. AND IT DOES FEEL LIKE A FAULTY ONE.
If I buy/long any of it is at 8-12$ just to play a round of "Casino Roulette". High risk low reward.
Of course if they announce something positive this might change but I hardly doubt it.
DELHIVERY INTRADAY TARGETS DONE!Delhivery on the 15-minute timeframe delivered a stellar intraday performance, achieving all predefined targets with precision. This long trade was executed using the Risological Swing Trading Indicator , ensuring a well-timed entry and a disciplined approach.
Delhivery Key Levels:
TP1: 340.80 ✅
TP2: 346.20 ✅
TP3: 351.60 ✅
TP4: 354.90 ✅
Delhivery Technical Analysis:
The trade was initiated at an entry price of 337.45, with a stop-loss positioned at 334.75 to limit downside risk.
Delhivery exhibited strong bullish momentum, crossing the Risological trend line early in the session.
The stock maintained upward movement, achieving all take-profit levels in this intraday trade. This setup highlights the power of the Risological indicator in capturing quick and profitable opportunities in volatile markets.
All the best and do follow me for more success stories, insights, tips and profitable stock calls.
Namaste!
Welspun Corp Eyes ₹950! TP1 Hit, More Gains Ahead!Welspun Corp (WELCORP), on the 1-hour timeframe, has achieved TP1 and is showing a strong bullish trend, indicating potential movement toward TP2, TP3, and TP4. The Risological Swing Trading Indicator clearly identifies the trade setup with defined levels for an emotion-free strategy.
Welspun Corp Key Levels:
TP1: 764.60 ✅
TP2: 835.35 (Pending)
TP3: 906.10 (Pending)
TP4: 949.85 (Pending)
Welspun Corp Technical Analysis:
The entry point was at 720.90, and the trade setup was confirmed as the price crossed above the Risological Trend Line, signifying a bullish continuation.
A safe stop-loss was placed at 685.55, ensuring effective risk management.
The current consolidation near TP1 suggests a likely breakout to higher levels, with TP2 and TP3 being immediate targets.
As momentum builds, traders should watch for signs of trend continuation or reversals near TP levels for maximizing gains.
Sonata Software Races to ₹675! TP4 Within Reach!Sonata Software, on the 1-hour timeframe, demonstrates a strong bullish momentum with TP1, TP2, and TP3 successfully achieved. TP4 is within close range and is likely to hit as the trend continues on the Risological Swing Trading Indicator.
Sonata Software Key Levels:
TP1: 587.45 ✅
TP2: 621.10 ✅
TP3: 654.75 ✅
TP4: 675.55 (Pending)
Sonata Software Technical Analysis:
The trade was initiated at 566.65, following a clear breakout above the Risological Trend Line. The consistent upward momentum indicates a strong trend, with well-marked take-profit levels and a tight stop-loss at 549.85 to manage risk effectively.
With TP4 nearly achieved, the bullish momentum suggests further upside potential. Traders should closely monitor the price action near TP4 for possible profit-taking or further extension.
Namaste!
GPPL Targets 212! Hourly Swing Gains Surge!Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPL), on the 1-hour timeframe, showcased a strong long trade setup using the Risological swing trading indicator . Targets 1 and 2 have been successfully achieved, and the trade is poised to hit the remaining targets as momentum builds.
Key Levels:
TP1: 184.51 ✅
TP2: 195.21 ✅
TP3: 205.91 (Pending)
TP4: 212.53 (Pending)
Technical Analysis:
The entry was precisely placed at 177.90, supported by bullish signals from the Risological swing trader. The stop-loss was positioned at 172.55, ensuring a controlled risk approach. The Risological trend line validated the upward trend, allowing for a seamless move through the first two targets.
The trade continues to show strength, with price action staying above key support levels. The setup suggests a high probability of reaching the next targets, backed by steady buying pressure.
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR): A Pioneer in Autonomous Vehicles Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) is a leader in the autonomous vehicle space, focused on developing cutting-edge self-driving technology for the transportation industry.
Looking at the stock chart, we see a confirmation bar with increased volume, signaling strong investor interest. The stock is currently trading above the Fibonacci .236 support zone, which is considered a positive sign for potential upward movement.
The indicators used to analyze the chart are the Fibonacci Snap Tool and the Momentum Zones indicators, both available in the indicator search tab. These tools help identify key support and resistance levels, as well as momentum shifts in the stock’s price, providing valuable insights for making informed trading decisions.
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) offers a suite of products, including its autonomous driving software and hardware, which are designed to be integrated into a range of vehicles, from trucks to passenger cars. Aurora's mission is to revolutionize the way people and goods move by creating safer, more efficient transportation solutions through automation.
The main drivers of growth for Aurora Innovation include the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning, the increasing demand for autonomous driving solutions, and partnerships with major industry players in automotive and logistics. As the world moves toward self-driving vehicles, Aurora is well-positioned to capitalize on these changes and drive growth in the sector.
NVDIA Channel Up ready to explode in 2025 for a $350 target.NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) has started the week on a bullish 1W candle, following last week's reversal pattern. Technically that reversal is being formed exactly at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 10 2022 market bottom.
This 2-year pattern is technically very similar to the Channel Up that started on the weekly bottom of December 24 2018. The similarities between the two patterns are striking. As you can see both started after an oversold 1W RSI (<30.00) touch, which then formed Higher Lows, making the price rebound on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Then, using the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Support, the 2019 - 2021 Channel Up expanded all the way to the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, until the eventual break below the 1W MA50 and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Observe also how similar their 1W RSI sequences are. Right now it appears that we are after a technical pull-back similar to May 10 2021. The 1W MA50 is supporting and the 1W RSI (which has already made a Double Bottom rebound (green circles)) is bouncing off its MA (yellow trend-line) and looking for a break-out above the (dotted) Channel Down.
We have already set two Targets ($190 and $240) for on NVDIA on our previous analysis, but this time we move a little further, making a projection for the end of this Cycle. And the final Target is $350, exactly on the 6.0 Fibonacci extension, the level that formed the November 22 2021 Top.
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HINDCOPPER : Riding the Liquidity Zone for a Strong Upswing1. Hindustan Copper Ltd. (HINDCOPPER)
Current Price: ₹283.45
Chart Observations:
The chart showcases a corrective wave labeled as A-B-C, where Wave (C) has approached a liquidity zone (₹252–₹268). This zone is supported by a deep retracement from the last swing low, aligning with Fibonacci 113%–127% levels, making it a potential demand zone.
A Break of Structure (BoS) at the earlier swing low indicates seller dominance; however, the liquidity zone offers a counter-trend opportunity.
A sharp upward projection anticipates price moving toward the target zone between ₹364 and ₹378.
Buying Levels:
First buying opportunity: ₹268–₹283 (inside the liquidity zone).
Secondary aggressive entry: On confirmation of a bullish breakout above ₹292.
Stop Loss:
Place the stop loss at ₹252 . Use a dynamic trailing stop-loss strategy by adjusting it above the next immediate swing low as the stock advances.
Target:
First Target: ₹364
Second Target: ₹378
Pro Tip to Avoid SL Hunting: Monitor for rejections (e.g., long wicks, higher lows) at ₹268 levels before entering. Wait for confirmation of demand in this zone on shorter time frames like 1-hour or 4-hour charts.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only . Investments in stocks and financial markets involve risks, including the loss of principal. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Micron Technology ($MU): Strategic Buy with AI-Driven UpsideMicron Technology ( NASDAQ:MU ): Strategic Buy with AI-Driven Upside
Trade Setup:
- **Buy Price:** $98.66
- **Stop-Loss:** $84.68
- **Take-Profit:** $160 to $180
**Rationale:**
Micron Technology, a leader in memory and storage solutions, is poised to benefit from the growing demand in artificial intelligence (AI) applications. The company's advancements in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) position it favourably within the semiconductor industry.
**Financial Performance:**
In fiscal Q4 2024, Micron reported revenue of $7.75 billion, a significant increase from $4.01 billion in the same period last year. The GAAP net income was $887 million, or $0.79 per diluted share, marking a substantial turnaround from the previous year's loss.
**Analyst Insights:**
Analysts have set a 12-month average price target of $146.28, with estimates ranging from $90 to $250, indicating a potential upside of approximately 48% from the current price.
**Risk Management:**
The stop-loss at $84.68 helps mitigate downside risk, while the take-profit range of $160 to $180 offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, Just Ride the Wave!
*Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should conduct their own due diligence before making investment decisions.*
SAP’s Cloud & AI MomentumSAP’s Cloud and AI Momentum: Why This Tech Giant Remains a Top Buy in 2024
SAP is a Germany based company specializing in enterprise application software
It operates through three key segments:
1.Applications, Technology & Services: This segment focuses on selling software licenses, subscriptions to SAP’s cloud applications, and related services. It encompasses support services, various professional services, implementation services for SAP’s software products, and educational services to help customers effectively use SAP solutions
2.SAP Business Network:This segment includes SAP’s cloud-based collaborative business networks and related services. It covers cloud applications and professional and educational services related to the SAP Business Network. This segment also encompasses cloud offerings developed by SAP Ariba, SAP Fieldglass, and Concur, which facilitate supplier collaboration, workforce management, and expense management.
3.Customer Experience:This segment offers both on-premise and cloud-based products designed to manage front-office functions, focusing on customer experience management. It provides solutions that help businesses enhance and streamline interactions with customers.
These segments enable SAP to offer a wide range of solutions, addressing enterprise needs from back-office functions to collaborative networks and customer-facing operations.
SAP remains a top pick, with clear growth momentum that could accelerate further and potential for margin improvements. My buy rating remains unchanged.
SAP reported its Q3 2024 earnings, showing a 10% year-over-year revenue increase in constant currency (CC) to €8.5 billion, maintaining the same growth momentum as Q2 2024. The highlight is the cloud segment’s revenue growth, reaching €4.35 billion, with a y/y CC growth rate accelerating from 25% in Q2 2024 to 27% in Q3 2024. This aligns well with my expectations, as the current cloud backlog (CCB) grew by 29% y/y CC, improving 100 basis points from Q2 2024. By product category, the Cloud ERP Suite showed 36% y/y CC growth, a 300bps sequential improvement. License revenue, though still declining, saw a slower drop from -27% in Q2 to -14% in Q3, and maintenance revenue declines also eased from -3% to -2%. This solid revenue performance contributed to a strong profit outcome, with adjusted EBIT beating estimates by approximately 9% at €2.24 billion, and a major free cash flow (FCF) beat of €1.25 billion, far surpassing the consensus of -€676 million.
Given this strong performance, it wasn’t surprising that management raised guidance, which is certainly encouraging. They now forecast adjusted EBIT in the range of €7.8 to €8 billion, a €150 million increase at the midpoint, implying y/y growth of 20% to 23% CC, up from the previous 17% to 21%. Cloud and software revenue guidance also increased by €400 million at the midpoint, with a new range of €29.5 to €29.8 billion, reflecting 10% to 11% y/y CC growth versus the previous 8% to 10%. Additionally, adjusted FCF is now projected between €3.5 to €4 billion, compared to the prior €3.5 billion.
I am confident that SAP can meet these targets for several reasons. First, the S/4HANA migration remains strong, as indicated by 29% y/y CC CCB growth and 36% y/y CC growth in the Cloud ERP Suite, which accounts for approximately 84% of total cloud revenue. Second, nearly one-third of deals signed in the quarter involved AI, highlighting increased demand for embedded AI solutions. This reinforces my previous view that AI adoption is driving SAP’s cloud migration efforts, as customers must utilize the cloud to fully leverage these AI capabilities. Notably, SAP is moving to the “expand” phase of its strategy by adding generative AI (GenAI) capabilities.
With SAP introducing more AI features, the company is well-positioned to continue capitalizing on this growth driver. For example, its AI-based assistant, Joule, now offers collaborative agent capabilities, allowing it to manage multiple AI agents for complex tasks—resulting in significant productivity gains. Additionally, the Knowledge Graph, a part of SAP’s GenAI suite, connects language and data to help users navigate SAP systems more efficiently. SAP has over 100 GenAI use cases and has added more than 500 skills to Joule so far, suggesting substantial growth potential.
AI adoption remains robust, as evidenced by AI’s central role in SAP’s sales strategy. Around 20% of deals now include premium AI features, and all ERP and LoB deals involve discussions around AI, signaling that AI is a key growth driver for SAP, especially considering that AI integration was minimal a few years ago.
I reaffirm my model assumptions and see continued attractive upside potential, even after SAP’s strong year-to-date share price rally. SAP is increasingly likely to achieve 10% growth for FY24, with further acceleration expected in FY25/26, driven by strong cloud migration and rising AI demand. Management’s upward revision of FY24 adjusted EBIT indicates that earnings margins will improve. Year-to-date, the adjusted earnings margin stands at around 21.1%, making my full-year target of 21.5% feasible. As growth accelerates and SAP completes its restructuring (which impacts 9,000 to 10,000 positions as announced in January 2024), margins should rise to the mid-20% range. I’ve added 300 basis points based on trends from FY22 to FY24. Additionally, with no visible slowdown in growth momentum, I expect the market to continue valuing SAP at a premium, at 36x forward PE compared to the three-year average of 23x.
The macroeconomic environment poses risks, especially if supply chain challenges persist or interest rates rise. Political uncertainties, such as the upcoming U.S. election, could lead to reduced business investment, impacting corporate IT budgets and SAP’s sales. Additionally, if SAP’s S/4HANA and cloud products underperform, or if there are delays in product development or launches, investor expectations may be disappointed, particularly regarding S/4HANA.
To conclude, I maintain my buy rating on SAP. The company’s strong Q3 2024 performance and revised guidance have reinforced my positive view. The accelerating growth in cloud revenue, driven by solid S/4 HANA migration and increased AI adoption, is highly encouraging. While macro risks remain, SAP’s robust fundamentals and favorable growth outlook support a buy rating.
Riding Wave 5: Is $700 Just Around the Corner?Hey Realistic Traders, Will META Bullish Bias Continue ? Let’s Dive In....
In the Daily timeframe, META rebounded above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, marking the completion of wave 4. Within this wave, a Descending broadening wedge pattern was formed. Recently the price has broken out of the pattern. This breakout was further confirmed by a bullish MACD crossover, signaling increasing momentum and strengthening the case for a continued upward move.
Based on these technical signals, I foresee a potential upward movement toward the first target at $638. After reaching this level, a minor pullback is likely before the rally continues toward a new high at $700.
This outlook remains valid as long as the price holds above the stop-loss level at 550.00.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on META.
SMCI This is why investors should always keep a clear mindset.It was only a month ago (November 07, see chart below) when we gave a very strong long-term buy signal on Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI), in the midst of a price collapse following the resignation of their auditor (Ernst & Young) and compliance delays with stock index requirements:
Putting the fundamentals aside, we made this bold call by purely looking at the technicals, which in turbulent times like these (market fear on news) tend to deliver a clearer and more objective picture.
The price had just hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time in 4 years (since October 26 2020), while reaching Fibonacci level 1.0, which was the former top of the Channel Up for 4 years until it broke and the stock turned parabolic from January 2023 to March 2024. At the same time, the 1W RSI touched the oversold barrier (30.00) for the first time since March 16 2020 and second since October 01 2018, which was the start of the Fibonacci Channel.
As a result, that gave us a very strong buy signal combo, which as you saw was immediately translated into a price rebound. Less than a month after, the stock is about to close the gap of the October 28 2024 1W candle, which was the week of the Ernst & Young collapse. This amount of buying pressure indicates that there were a lot of long-term buyers waiting on the buy zone we identified and assuming SMCI continues to restore faith in their reported accounting practices, are looking for a new multi-year rally.
Our $122.50 Target remains intact for Q3 2025, which is basically the stock's All Time High (ATH). Technically there is room for a 2025 extension within the 3.5 - 4.0 Fibonacci Zone.
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