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Oracle’s Cloud Conquest|Climbing Mount Hyperscaler with AI BootsWill Oracle Cloud Infrastructure aka OCI Emerge as the 4th Hyperscaler? Although OCI hasn’t yet reached the scale of the top three cloud giants (AWS, Azure, GCP), it’s rapidly advancing, much like d’Artagnan joining the musketeers. Riding the AI wave, Oracle’s Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) segment surged by 52% to $2.4 billion in Q2. Over the past year, OCI has overtaken Salesforce and IBM, surpassing even Snowflake. Its next target, Alibaba Cloud, grew just 7% YoY to $4.2 billion in Q3. However, this impressive growth comes at a price—Oracle’s capital expenditure is expected to double in FY25 to meet AI demand. Oracle Q2 FY25 Highlights Key Metrics -Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO): A measure of future revenue from existing contracts. RPO grew 50% YoY, with Cloud RPO jumping nearly 80%, reflecting strong momentum. Sequentially, total RPO declined slightly from $99 billion in Q1 to $97 billion in Q2. 39% of this is expected to convert into revenue over the next year. -Cloud Services Revenue: Up 24% YoY to $5.9 billion: -IaaS: Grew 52% YoY to $2.4 billion, up from 45% in Q1, driven by OCI adoption for high-performance workloads and multi-cloud deployments. -SaaS: Increased 10% YoY to $3.5 billion, with stable demand for cloud-based ERP, HCM, and CRM solutions. - Fusion Cloud ERP: Gained 18% YoY to $0.9 billion. -NetSuite Cloud ERP: Rose 19% YoY to $0.9 billion. - Total Revenue: Increased 9% YoY to $14.1 billion, missing estimates by $20 million. -Cloud Services & License Support: Up 12% YoY to $10.8 billion, with cloud services alone growing 24% YoY to $5.9 billion. -Cloud License & On-Premise: Up 1% YoY to $1.2 billion. -Hardware: Declined 4% YoY to $0.7 billion. -Services: Dropped 3% YoY to $1.3 billion. -Margins: Gross margin held steady at 71%, while operating margin improved 2 percentage points to 30%. -Non-GAAP EPS:$1.47, missing estimates by $0.01 Cash Flow & Balance Sheet -Operating Cash Flow (TTM):** $20.3 billion (+19% YoY). - Cash & Cash Equivalents:** $11.3 billion. -Debt: $88.6 billion. Q3 FY25 Guidance - Revenue growth of 7%-9% YoY (10% expected). - Cloud revenue projected to grow 25%-27% YoY, accelerating further. Analysis and Insights 1.Momentum in Cloud Infrastructure Oracle’s focus on AI workloads is paying off, with major clients like Meta, Uber, and TikTok driving GPU consumption up by 336%. The company also unveiled the largest AI supercomputer, featuring 65,000 NVIDIA H200 GPUs. However, a potential TikTok ban in the U.S. could pose a $2 billion revenue risk. 2.Growth Despite Missed Targets While revenue and adjusted earnings missed estimates due to slower SaaS growth, cloud revenue of $5.9 billion was just shy of the $6 billion forecast. Shares dipped post-earnings but remain up nearly 70% year-to-date, exceeding most investors' expectations 3.Capex Surge for AI Capital expenditures reached $4 billion this quarter, a sharp increase from under $7 billion in FY24. Management expects FY25 Capex to double, driven by AI demand, resulting in negative free cash flow ($2.7 billion used) for the quarter. These investments align with industry trends but may stretch the balance sheet. 4.Expanding Multi Cloud Partnerships Oracle’s partnerships with Meta, AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud enhance its relevance in multi-cloud environments. These alliances enable seamless workload interoperability and help Oracle compete effectively while broadening its customer base. 5.Balance Sheet Challenges Oracle’s net debt of $80 billion, despite robust $20 billion annual operating cash flow, restricts its ability to pursue aggressive growth strategies or acquisitions. Rising Capex could further limit flexibility. 6.Bullish Long-Term Outlook Management projects total cloud revenue to exceed $25 billion in FY25, fueled by AI demand and OCI’s competitive positioning. Analysts remain optimistic about Oracle’s prospects, particularly in multi-cloud ecosystems and generative AI workloads. This explains why Larry Ellison envisions Oracle’s data centers expanding tenfold
NYSE:ORCL
by moonypto
Green Panel Soars Past ₹397! Bigger Targets Ahead!Green Panel on the 4-hour timeframe has entered a long trade setup, with TP1 successfully achieved at ₹397.35. The trade setup is based on the Risological Swing Trading Indicator , providing precise entry and target levels for a confident trade. Green Panel Key Levels: TP1: ₹397.35 ✅ TP2: ₹441.75 TP3: ₹486.15 TP4: ₹513.60 Technical Analysis: The entry price at ₹369.90 has shown a strong breakout, quickly hitting the first profit target. The stop-loss is set at ₹347.70, ensuring disciplined risk management. The price is moving above the Risological trend line, signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. As the setup remains intact, traders can aim for higher targets with a favorable risk-reward ratio. Namaste!
NSE:GREENPANELLong
by ProfitsNinja
Rolex Rings Ready for Takeoff: Long Trade Targets ₹2741!Rolex Rings on the 4-hour timeframe is presenting a fresh long trade opportunity, with the price currently hovering around the entry level. This setup, identified using the Risological Swing Trading Indicator, is primed for a strong upward move targeting 2741.60 at TP4. Rolex Rings Key Levels: TP1: 2267.90 TP2: 2448.85 TP3: 2629.80 TP4: 2741.60 Technical Analysis: The entry price is set at 2156.05, with a stop-loss at 2065.55, ensuring effective risk management. The price recently broke through a significant resistance zone, signaling bullish momentum. With the Risological trend line confirming the upward bias, this trade setup offers a high-reward opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on the next potential rally. Namaste!
NSE:ROLEXRINGSLong
by ProfitsNinja
AMBER: Wave 5 Setup in Progress AMBER Enterprises (AMBER): Wave 5 Setup in Progress Wave Analysis: The stock is currently in the Wave 4 corrective zone between 5,762 - 5,667 INR, a key support area. A potential liquidity sweep below 5,667 INR could attract strong buying interest. Target zones for Wave 5 completion are 6,976 - 7,127 INR. Key Observations: Wave Structure: Completion of Waves 1, 2, and 3; Wave 4 is nearing a reversal zone. Liquidity Sweep Potential: A dip below 5,667 INR might collect stop-loss liquidity before reversing. Trading Plan: Entry: Look for entry near 5,762 - 5,667 INR upon confirmation of reversal (e.g., bullish candle with volume). Monitor behavior if prices dip below 5,667 INR and recover sharply. Stop-Loss: Place stop-loss below 5,060 INR (invalidates Wave 4). Target Levels: First target: 6,500 INR (partial profit booking). Final target: 7,000+ INR (completion of Wave 5). Indicators to Monitor: RSI for oversold conditions at entry zones. Volume confirmation during reversal. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. Please do your own research or consult a financial advisor before trading.
NSE:AMBERLong
by LiveTradingBox
DELHIVERY INTRADAY TARGETS DONE!Delhivery on the 15-minute timeframe delivered a stellar intraday performance, achieving all predefined targets with precision. This long trade was executed using the Risological Swing Trading Indicator , ensuring a well-timed entry and a disciplined approach. Delhivery Key Levels: TP1: 340.80 ✅ TP2: 346.20 ✅ TP3: 351.60 ✅ TP4: 354.90 ✅ Delhivery Technical Analysis: The trade was initiated at an entry price of 337.45, with a stop-loss positioned at 334.75 to limit downside risk. Delhivery exhibited strong bullish momentum, crossing the Risological trend line early in the session. The stock maintained upward movement, achieving all take-profit levels in this intraday trade. This setup highlights the power of the Risological indicator in capturing quick and profitable opportunities in volatile markets. All the best and do follow me for more success stories, insights, tips and profitable stock calls. Namaste!
NSE:DELHIVERYLong
by ProfitsNinja
ITI Hits TP1! Target ₹450—Daily Chart Breakout!Indian Telephone Industries (ITI) on the daily timeframe has achieved TP1 and shows strong bullish momentum, making it highly probable to achieve TP2, TP3, and TP4. This trade was identified using the Risological Swing Trading Indicator , providing clear entry, stop-loss, and target levels. Key Levels: TP1: 301.40 ✅ TP2: 357.90 (Pending) TP3: 414.40 (Pending) TP4: 449.30 (Pending) Technical Analysis: The trade entry at 266.50 was confirmed with a breakout above key resistance levels, supported by bullish price action. The stop-loss is tightly placed at 238.25, ensuring risk is well managed. The current upward trajectory aligns with the Risological trend, signaling strong continuation toward the upper targets. Traders should monitor the price action near TP2 and TP3 for any signs of consolidation or resistance, with the expectation of further upside potential.
NSE:ITILong
by ProfitsNinja
Welspun Corp Eyes ₹950! TP1 Hit, More Gains Ahead!Welspun Corp (WELCORP), on the 1-hour timeframe, has achieved TP1 and is showing a strong bullish trend, indicating potential movement toward TP2, TP3, and TP4. The Risological Swing Trading Indicator clearly identifies the trade setup with defined levels for an emotion-free strategy. Welspun Corp Key Levels: TP1: 764.60 ✅ TP2: 835.35 (Pending) TP3: 906.10 (Pending) TP4: 949.85 (Pending) Welspun Corp Technical Analysis: The entry point was at 720.90, and the trade setup was confirmed as the price crossed above the Risological Trend Line, signifying a bullish continuation. A safe stop-loss was placed at 685.55, ensuring effective risk management. The current consolidation near TP1 suggests a likely breakout to higher levels, with TP2 and TP3 being immediate targets. As momentum builds, traders should watch for signs of trend continuation or reversals near TP levels for maximizing gains.
NSE:WELCORPLong
by ProfitsNinja
Sonata Software Races to ₹675! TP4 Within Reach!Sonata Software, on the 1-hour timeframe, demonstrates a strong bullish momentum with TP1, TP2, and TP3 successfully achieved. TP4 is within close range and is likely to hit as the trend continues on the Risological Swing Trading Indicator. Sonata Software Key Levels: TP1: 587.45 ✅ TP2: 621.10 ✅ TP3: 654.75 ✅ TP4: 675.55 (Pending) Sonata Software Technical Analysis: The trade was initiated at 566.65, following a clear breakout above the Risological Trend Line. The consistent upward momentum indicates a strong trend, with well-marked take-profit levels and a tight stop-loss at 549.85 to manage risk effectively. With TP4 nearly achieved, the bullish momentum suggests further upside potential. Traders should closely monitor the price action near TP4 for possible profit-taking or further extension. Namaste!
NSE:SONATSOFTWLong
by ProfitsNinja
GPPL Targets 212! Hourly Swing Gains Surge!Gujarat Pipavav Port Ltd (GPPL), on the 1-hour timeframe, showcased a strong long trade setup using the Risological swing trading indicator . Targets 1 and 2 have been successfully achieved, and the trade is poised to hit the remaining targets as momentum builds. Key Levels: TP1: 184.51 ✅ TP2: 195.21 ✅ TP3: 205.91 (Pending) TP4: 212.53 (Pending) Technical Analysis: The entry was precisely placed at 177.90, supported by bullish signals from the Risological swing trader. The stop-loss was positioned at 172.55, ensuring a controlled risk approach. The Risological trend line validated the upward trend, allowing for a seamless move through the first two targets. The trade continues to show strength, with price action staying above key support levels. The setup suggests a high probability of reaching the next targets, backed by steady buying pressure.
NSE:GPPLLong
by ProfitsNinja
HINDCOPPER : Riding the Liquidity Zone for a Strong Upswing1. Hindustan Copper Ltd. (HINDCOPPER) Current Price: ₹283.45 Chart Observations: The chart showcases a corrective wave labeled as A-B-C, where Wave (C) has approached a liquidity zone (₹252–₹268). This zone is supported by a deep retracement from the last swing low, aligning with Fibonacci 113%–127% levels, making it a potential demand zone. A Break of Structure (BoS) at the earlier swing low indicates seller dominance; however, the liquidity zone offers a counter-trend opportunity. A sharp upward projection anticipates price moving toward the target zone between ₹364 and ₹378. Buying Levels: First buying opportunity: ₹268–₹283 (inside the liquidity zone). Secondary aggressive entry: On confirmation of a bullish breakout above ₹292. Stop Loss: Place the stop loss at ₹252 . Use a dynamic trailing stop-loss strategy by adjusting it above the next immediate swing low as the stock advances. Target: First Target: ₹364 Second Target: ₹378 Pro Tip to Avoid SL Hunting: Monitor for rejections (e.g., long wicks, higher lows) at ₹268 levels before entering. Wait for confirmation of demand in this zone on shorter time frames like 1-hour or 4-hour charts. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only . Investments in stocks and financial markets involve risks, including the loss of principal. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult with a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:HINDCOPPERLong
by LiveTradingBox
SAP’s Cloud & AI MomentumSAP’s Cloud and AI Momentum: Why This Tech Giant Remains a Top Buy in 2024 SAP is a Germany based company specializing in enterprise application software It operates through three key segments: 1.Applications, Technology & Services: This segment focuses on selling software licenses, subscriptions to SAP’s cloud applications, and related services. It encompasses support services, various professional services, implementation services for SAP’s software products, and educational services to help customers effectively use SAP solutions 2.SAP Business Network:This segment includes SAP’s cloud-based collaborative business networks and related services. It covers cloud applications and professional and educational services related to the SAP Business Network. This segment also encompasses cloud offerings developed by SAP Ariba, SAP Fieldglass, and Concur, which facilitate supplier collaboration, workforce management, and expense management. 3.Customer Experience:This segment offers both on-premise and cloud-based products designed to manage front-office functions, focusing on customer experience management. It provides solutions that help businesses enhance and streamline interactions with customers. These segments enable SAP to offer a wide range of solutions, addressing enterprise needs from back-office functions to collaborative networks and customer-facing operations. SAP remains a top pick, with clear growth momentum that could accelerate further and potential for margin improvements. My buy rating remains unchanged. SAP reported its Q3 2024 earnings, showing a 10% year-over-year revenue increase in constant currency (CC) to €8.5 billion, maintaining the same growth momentum as Q2 2024. The highlight is the cloud segment’s revenue growth, reaching €4.35 billion, with a y/y CC growth rate accelerating from 25% in Q2 2024 to 27% in Q3 2024. This aligns well with my expectations, as the current cloud backlog (CCB) grew by 29% y/y CC, improving 100 basis points from Q2 2024. By product category, the Cloud ERP Suite showed 36% y/y CC growth, a 300bps sequential improvement. License revenue, though still declining, saw a slower drop from -27% in Q2 to -14% in Q3, and maintenance revenue declines also eased from -3% to -2%. This solid revenue performance contributed to a strong profit outcome, with adjusted EBIT beating estimates by approximately 9% at €2.24 billion, and a major free cash flow (FCF) beat of €1.25 billion, far surpassing the consensus of -€676 million. Given this strong performance, it wasn’t surprising that management raised guidance, which is certainly encouraging. They now forecast adjusted EBIT in the range of €7.8 to €8 billion, a €150 million increase at the midpoint, implying y/y growth of 20% to 23% CC, up from the previous 17% to 21%. Cloud and software revenue guidance also increased by €400 million at the midpoint, with a new range of €29.5 to €29.8 billion, reflecting 10% to 11% y/y CC growth versus the previous 8% to 10%. Additionally, adjusted FCF is now projected between €3.5 to €4 billion, compared to the prior €3.5 billion. I am confident that SAP can meet these targets for several reasons. First, the S/4HANA migration remains strong, as indicated by 29% y/y CC CCB growth and 36% y/y CC growth in the Cloud ERP Suite, which accounts for approximately 84% of total cloud revenue. Second, nearly one-third of deals signed in the quarter involved AI, highlighting increased demand for embedded AI solutions. This reinforces my previous view that AI adoption is driving SAP’s cloud migration efforts, as customers must utilize the cloud to fully leverage these AI capabilities. Notably, SAP is moving to the “expand” phase of its strategy by adding generative AI (GenAI) capabilities. With SAP introducing more AI features, the company is well-positioned to continue capitalizing on this growth driver. For example, its AI-based assistant, Joule, now offers collaborative agent capabilities, allowing it to manage multiple AI agents for complex tasks—resulting in significant productivity gains. Additionally, the Knowledge Graph, a part of SAP’s GenAI suite, connects language and data to help users navigate SAP systems more efficiently. SAP has over 100 GenAI use cases and has added more than 500 skills to Joule so far, suggesting substantial growth potential. AI adoption remains robust, as evidenced by AI’s central role in SAP’s sales strategy. Around 20% of deals now include premium AI features, and all ERP and LoB deals involve discussions around AI, signaling that AI is a key growth driver for SAP, especially considering that AI integration was minimal a few years ago. I reaffirm my model assumptions and see continued attractive upside potential, even after SAP’s strong year-to-date share price rally. SAP is increasingly likely to achieve 10% growth for FY24, with further acceleration expected in FY25/26, driven by strong cloud migration and rising AI demand. Management’s upward revision of FY24 adjusted EBIT indicates that earnings margins will improve. Year-to-date, the adjusted earnings margin stands at around 21.1%, making my full-year target of 21.5% feasible. As growth accelerates and SAP completes its restructuring (which impacts 9,000 to 10,000 positions as announced in January 2024), margins should rise to the mid-20% range. I’ve added 300 basis points based on trends from FY22 to FY24. Additionally, with no visible slowdown in growth momentum, I expect the market to continue valuing SAP at a premium, at 36x forward PE compared to the three-year average of 23x. The macroeconomic environment poses risks, especially if supply chain challenges persist or interest rates rise. Political uncertainties, such as the upcoming U.S. election, could lead to reduced business investment, impacting corporate IT budgets and SAP’s sales. Additionally, if SAP’s S/4HANA and cloud products underperform, or if there are delays in product development or launches, investor expectations may be disappointed, particularly regarding S/4HANA. To conclude, I maintain my buy rating on SAP. The company’s strong Q3 2024 performance and revised guidance have reinforced my positive view. The accelerating growth in cloud revenue, driven by solid S/4 HANA migration and increased AI adoption, is highly encouraging. While macro risks remain, SAP’s robust fundamentals and favorable growth outlook support a buy rating.
NYSE:SAPLong
by moonypto
JAIBALAJI : uplift is coming?1. Jai Balaji Industries Ltd Analysis: Wave Structure: Identifies an Elliott Wave correction (ABC structure). Wave C is nearing completion in the 860-841 INR zone. Buying Range: Highlighted between 860-841 INR. Target Zone: Marked at 1218-1261 INR, suggesting strong upside potential. Stop Loss: Defined at 817 INR, just below the buying zone. Trading Plan: Action: Place buy orders in the range of 860-841 INR using a staggered accumulation strategy. Stop Loss: Set at 817 INR to account for potential false breakdowns. Targets: First Target: 1218 INR. Final Target: 1261 INR. Reasoning: Wave C completion near the buying range suggests a potential reversal. Targets align with historical resistance levels, making them logical profit zones.
NSE:JAIBALAJILong
by LiveTradingBox
Meta I Potential correction and more growthWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** Meta Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
NASDAQ:METALong
by BKTradingAcademy
1
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad. Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔 We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines. Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade. To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being. This helps define the trade risk very well. If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out. To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down ! From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too. That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750). So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation? The following is a way to have: An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more) Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk Entry Points and Stops 9000 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8600 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9200 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8800 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9400 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Initial Risk: £1000. Profit Targets First Position (9000): Gain: 1000 points. Profit: £2500. Second Position (9200): Gain: 800 points. Profit: £2000. Third Position (9400): Trailing Stop Profit Example: 10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500. 11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more. Summary Total Risk: £3000. Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500. Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
LSE:IHGEducation
by jasperlawler
5
ADANIENT // What to do?www.tradingview.com ADANIENT: Everyone should have a partner like ADANI...the GQG Partners :). Whenever Adani stocks are in trouble, they come as savior. Jokes apart, here are the findings. The lower gaps are filled now. The upper gaps are still open so there are chances it may go to fill them. The Resistances are 2420 / 2544 / 2667 / 2755 The Support are 2020 / 1763 / 1500 I would prefer to enter for a buy position once it breaks and sustains above 2420 atleast and target will be 2750 for short term. The most safe or stable buy can be above 2900.
NSE:ADANIENT
by Stox_Ware
FINPIPE - Finolex Industries: A Perfect Wave SetupFinolex Industries Ltd: Wave Structure and Fibonacci Confluence Analysis 1. Overview This chart analysis of Finolex Industries Ltd leverages Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracement zones to identify high-probability price movements. It captures the interaction of a primary wave (blue) and an intermediate wave (red), providing insight into the potential price reversal and future targets. 2. Technical Breakdown Primary Wave (Blue): Reflects the major downtrend that defines the broader bearish structure of the market. Intermediate Corrective Wave (Red): Represents the corrective structure of the ABC pattern, indicating a possible reversal zone. Wave A: Initiates the corrective sequence with bearish pressure. Wave B: Forms a minor retracement, lacking strong upward momentum. Wave C: Extended downward move, aligning with the critical retracement zone of 113%–127% Fibonacci. Critical Fibonacci Zone (113%–127%): Acts as a key reversal zone. The completion of Wave C in this area often signals a potential bullish reversal. Break of Structure (BoS): The chart highlights a BoS, which suggests a shift in price action structure. If the price sustains above the ₹241–₹249 zone, it could lead to bullish momentum. Target Zone (₹344–₹356): Price is expected to head toward the retracement of the last high swing once the Wave C correction concludes. Stop-Loss Placement: Set below ₹235.55 on a day-close basis to manage risk. A failure to hold this level could lead to a deeper correction toward ₹214.39. 3. Logical Interpretation of Price Action Elliott Wave Theory: The corrective ABC wave structure is a classic setup for identifying potential reversals. Here, Wave C extends into the 113%–127% Fibonacci zone, a typical completion point for corrective patterns. Break of Structure (BoS): A BoS above ₹249 confirms structural strength. This is critical in signaling a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Volume Analysis: The lack of significant volume during Wave B confirms limited buyer strength. A strong breakout above the BoS zone with volume would confirm bullish interest. 4. Strategy Recommendations Entry Points: Wait for bullish confirmation near the ₹241–₹249 zone (e.g., bullish candlestick pattern, volume surge). Targets: First Target: ₹344–₹356 (retracement of the last high swing). Stop-Loss: Below ₹235.55 on a day-close basis to manage downside risk. Alternative Scenario: If the price breaks below ₹241, expect a deeper correction toward the ₹214.39 support zone. 5. Educational Insights Extended Fibonacci Levels (113%–127%): These levels are critical in identifying the completion of corrective waves, particularly in Wave C structures. They often act as zones of reversal, offering high-probability trade setups. Break of Structure (BoS): A BoS above a key price level is a significant indicator of sentiment shift. Combined with volume and candlestick analysis, it helps traders build conviction. Wave ABC Patterns: Understanding corrective wave patterns allows traders to predict potential trend continuation or reversal points, aiding in better entry and exit timing. 6. Summary This analysis of Finolex Industries Ltd combines Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci retracements to outline a potential bullish scenario. The setup offers a clear risk-reward strategy for traders, emphasizing key zones like the ₹241–₹249 support area and the ₹344–₹356 target zone. Adopting disciplined risk management with stop-loss placement ensures effective trade execution in a volatile market.
NSE:FINPIPELong
by LiveTradingBox
6
Can Tencent salvage Ubisoft's sinking ship?Ubisoft’s stock pumped 35% couple of days ago following a Bloomberg report suggesting that Tencent may either acquire the company or take it private Although the French gaming company didn’t confirm or deny the speculation, it did state that it’s considering "all strategic options" for the benefit of its stakeholders and will notify the market when necessary If Tencent proceeds, it would mark another significant acquisition in a wave of major gaming deals over recent years: - Activision Blizzard acquired by Microsoft for $69 billion in 2023. - Zynga acquired by Take-Two for $12.7 billion in 2022. - ZeniMax Media acquired by Microsoft for $7.5 billion in 2021. - Savvy Games acquired by Scopely for $4.9 billion in 2023. - Bungie acquired by Sony for $3.7 billion in 2022. - Glu Mobile acquired by EA for $2.4 billion in 2021. - Keywords Studios acquired by EQT for $2.4 billion in 2024. Ubisoft’s valuation sits at just $2 billion, nearly 90% below its peak in 2021! The stock fell by more than 40% in September alone, so this recent surge is only a brief reprieve. Given its diminished value, a potential buyer offering a premium wouldn’t necessarily be a massive win. So, how should we interpret this news, and what can we anticipate for future gaming M&A activity? Let’s break it down. Key Points 1.Ubisoft’s Challenges 2.Potential Buyers 3.IP Gold Rush 4.Future of Gaming M&A 1. Ubisoft’s Challenges Ubisoft has faced setbacks including canceled games, delays, and a dip in quality in the post-pandemic era. Let’s take a look at the fiscal year 2024, which ends in March. Consider this metric reflects the total amount spent by users within a period, covering game sales, in-game purchases, subscriptions, and downloadable content (DLC). It’s an important measure of business performance, with net bookings recognized as revenue over time, depending on content delivery and user engagement Key takeaways: Digital-first: 86% of Ubisoft's net bookings come from digital sales (premium, free-to-play, and subscriptions). It was 12% in 2013, illustrating the transformative past decade. Far behind on mobile: Ubisoft has trailed its peers, with only 7% of revenue coming from mobile. In contrast, nearly half of the industry’s revenue comes from smartphones. Margins improved after cost-cutting: Digital games are a high gross margin business, particularly with the back catalog (title released in previous years) making up nearly two-thirds of net bookings. Targeted restructurings impacted FY23, making the short-term margin trend misleading. Ubisoft laid off 1,700 employees between September 2022 and March 2024, roughly 6% of its workforce. Short-lived turnaround: FY23 was a challenging year, with Net bookings collapsing by 18% with the underperformance of Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and Just Dance 2023. In FY24, Net bookings rebounded sharply, growing 34% with the successful release of Assassin’s Creed Mirage and The Crew Motorfest. FY25 Collapses in a Week: After the underperformance of Star Wars Outlaws (released at the end of August and originally expected to be a blockbuster) and the delayed launch of Assassin’s Creed Shadows from November to February, Ubisoft revised its FY25 net bookings forecast down to €1.95 billion, a 16% decline year-over-year (compared to the "solid growth" expected earlier). The company now anticipates barely breaking even on an adjusted basis. The decision to delay Assassin’s Creed Shadows just weeks before its scheduled release was influenced by the poor reception of *Star Wars Outlaws*. However, the three-month delay might not be enough to resolve concerns over game quality or criticisms from the Japanese community regarding historical and cultural inaccuracies. But that’s not all! In addition to these financial and operational difficulties, Ubisoft has faced allegations of a toxic workplace. Several former executives from the *Assassin’s Creed* studio were arrested as part of an investigation into sexual assault and harassment. This situation mirrors the downfall of Activision Blizzard in the months leading up to its acquisition by Microsoft, which leads us to potential buyers for Ubisoft. 2. Potential Buyers Ubisoft remains a family-run company, largely overseen by its founders. The latest annual report reveals the following voting rights: - The Guillemot family controls 20.5% - Tencent owns 9.2% In September, minority shareholder AJ Investments claimed it had gained backing from 10% of shareholders and called for Ubisoft to be sold or taken private, estimating a fair value of €40 to €45 per share. With shares currently trading at €13, this seems highly optimistic. So, who are the likely candidates for a Ubisoft buyout? Key Players: -Tencent: Already a significant shareholder, Tencent could increase its stake or seek majority control. As the largest gaming company globally by revenue, Tencent has a history of acquisitions, such as its purchase of Finnish publisher Supercell (*Clash of Clans*) for $8.6 billion in 2016. However, Tencent's aggressive expansion has drawn regulatory scrutiny, especially in the US and Europe, which could complicate any attempt to acquire majority control of Ubisoft. Guillemot Family: The founding family might be interested in reclaiming greater control of Ubisoft and steering it in a new direction. To finance the buyout, they could collaborate with a private equity firm or a strategic investor. However, given Ubisoft's current size and the significant cost associated with a buyout, it could be difficult for the Guillemot family to pursue this path on their own. Other Potential Investors: Private equity firms or strategic investors within the gaming sector might also join a buyout consortium. These investors could be drawn to Ubisoft’s valuable intellectual property (IP) and see potential for a turnaround under new leadership. Gaming Companies: Besides Tencent, the largest gaming revenue players in 2023 are highlighted in the visual. -Apple and Google: Although both tech giants have been expanding into gaming, acquiring Ubisoft seems unlikely given their current antitrust scrutiny. -NetEase, EA, and TakeTwo: These companies would find an Ubisoft acquisition to be a straightforward studio consolidation. NetEase, in particular, might find it appealing to broaden its console and PC presence in the West, but Tencent’s involvement could complicate this. -Sony and Microsoft: As first-party publishers, both would benefit from boosting their subscription services with exclusive content. They’ve aggressively acquired studios in recent years. Given that the Activision Blizzard deal was approved, there’s no reason a Ubisoft acquisition couldn’t pass as well. In their latest fiscal year, gaming accounted for 32% of Sony’s revenue and less than 9% of Microsoft’s. 3. IP Gold Rush In the gaming industry, intellectual property (IP) is crucial. Iconic franchises like *Call of Duty*, *Mario*, and *Grand Theft Auto* are multi-billion-dollar assets that significantly impact a company’s future. As a result, many companies are eager to acquire established IPs or gain access to the teams behind them. Why is IP so valuable? -Lower risk: Developing a new AAA game can cost hundreds of millions and take years, with no guarantee of success. Acquiring a popular IP allows companies to tap into an existing fanbase and reduces the risk of failure. -Brand power: Consumers are more inclined to purchase games with familiar characters, worlds, or studios behind them. Well-known creators like Hideo Kojima (*Metal Gear*) and Hidetaka Miyazaki (*Elden Ring*) are just as significant. -Content scalability: Famous IPs can generate revenue through sequels, spin-offs, and licensing deals. Large publishers have the infrastructure to maximize returns across multiple channels. This strategy isn’t unique to gaming. Media giants follow similar patterns: -Amazon’s acquisition of MGM: In 2021, Amazon acquired MGM for $8.5 billion, gaining access to franchises like *James Bond* to enhance its Prime Video content. -Disney’s acquisition of Lucasfilm and Marvel: These acquisitions have delivered massive returns through movies, TV series, and licensing opportunities. Why now? -Consolidation pressure: Subscription services and cross-platform gaming are driving consolidation. Big companies want to secure valuable IPs to differentiate their services and attract loyal customers. Meanwhile, smaller studios are more open to selling early to avoid competing in an increasingly crowded and capital-intensive market. -Value in ownership: Owning IPs in gaming allows companies to create expansive worlds and engage players long-term through updates, expansions, and live services. This keeps players coming back and generates recurring revenue, which is harder to achieve in video content. -Cross media expansion: Popular games can expand into movies, TV series, or theme parks. For instance, *The Last of Us* became a hit HBO show, and Sony is developing TV adaptations for Horizon Zero Dawn and God of War. This leads to more revenue, a broader audience, and long-lasting IP appeal. The Ubisoft Angle Ubisoft’s IPs, like *Assassin’s Creed*, *Far Cry*, and *Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six*, have significant potential for future growth, despite recent struggles. However, realizing that potential might require new leadership or a fresh strategy, which a new owner could provide. Even though Ubisoft faces challenges, its strong portfolio might attract various buyers. For the right acquirer, Ubisoft's problems could represent a chance to buy low and rework its creative direction. As more studios seek to hedge their risks in this changing industry, we can expect more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the future. 4. The Future of Gaming M&A The gaming industry is constantly evolving, and several trends are fueling a surge in mergers and acquisitions: -Mobile-first: Mobile gaming is the largest and fastest-growing segment, making companies with a strong mobile presence attractive. Examples include Playrix (Gardenscapes,Homescapes) and Scopely (MONOPOLY GO!,Stumble Guys) -Cross-platform: Cross-platform play is becoming the standard, and companies with expertise in this area are in high demand. Unity and Epic Games play vital roles with their popular game engines, while major studios are also building in-house solutions. - Cloud gaming: Still in its early stages, cloud gaming has the potential to revolutionize how games are played. Companies with cloud infrastructure are becoming more valuable, with leaders like Microsoft (Game Pass Ultimate), Sony (PlayStation Plus Premium), and NVIDIA (GeForce Now) pushing the trend. -Metaverse: Beyond AR/VR, virtual worlds like *Roblox* and *Fortnite* have created immersive, social spaces that keep players engaged beyond traditional gameplay. Companies developing these experiences are attractive targets for firms looking to capitalize on this trend. -Web3 & Blockchain: Web3 games enable decentralized ownership and in-game economies powered by blockchain. This trend lets players own and trade digital assets, opening new revenue streams and drawing interest from companies exploring the intersection of gaming and crypto. -AI driven studios: AI is already influencing game development, and its role will only grow. Companies with AI expertise, particularly in game design and player behavior analysis, are becoming highly sought after. As AI reduces development costs, budgets could shift towards live services and marketing. The Big Picture The gaming industry is consolidating, with major players acquiring valuable studios and IPs. While there will always be space for indie games—especially as AI lowers the barrier to entry—industry consolidation will likely strengthen the top companies and leave less room for those in the middle. If a company like Ubisoft, valued at over $12 billion in 2021, is struggling to survive on its own, the future looks bleak for many smaller studios
EURONEXT:UBI
by moonypto
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