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Intel in Trouble or Ready for Redemption?There is growing potential for QUALCOMM Incorporated to acquire Intel. I now believe that this development has advanced enough to warrant a fresh look at the stock Qualcomm recently approached Intel about a takeover. According to WSJ , Qualcomm has expressed interest in acquiring Intel, which, if realized, would mark one of the most significant deals in recent history Initially, this seemed like a long shot, with limited details emerging from the report. However, QCOM has continued to pursue the idea. Also QCOM has been in contact with Chinese antitrust regulators over the past month about this potential deal and is waiting until after the US presidential election to decide on making a formal offer. Since the election is just less than a month away, I believe this acquisition is becoming more of a possibility that investors should factor into their assessment of INTC. If a deal goes through, it’s likely that the acquisition will come at a premium to the current stock price, creating an opportunity for significant short term gains for investors There is always a chance that no deal will occur. In that case, potential investors should evaluate whether the stock is worth holding as a long-term investment. My outlook here is not optimistic, and I’ll delve into INTC's competitive position, as indicated by its latest inventory data, in the next section Given these two potential scenarios, I am upgrading my rating from "Sell" to "Hold." In summary, the possibility of QCOM acquiring INTC introduces a major upside catalyst that I hadn’t accounted for in my previous analysis. This potential acquisition helps offset some of the concerns about INTC as a standalone company. Unlike many financial metrics that can be interpreted in different ways, inventory levels are more straightforward. He also explained that inventory trends can provide early indicators of business cycles. For cyclical industries, rising inventories can signal overproduction as demand wanes, while shrinking inventories can indicate strong demand As shown in INTC’s most recent balance sheet, its inventory levels have generally been on the rise. For instance, in December 2014, inventory was valued at $ 4.273 billion, while the most recent figures show an increase to $ 11.244 billion. In some cases, rising inventory can signal business growth with increasing demand and production capacity, which was true for Intel in the early part of the last decade. When inventory growth exceeds the pace of business growth, it becomes a red flag. In this scenario, rising inventory suggests weakened competitiveness and declining market position—an issue that Intel currently faces, in my opinion. The following chart helps illustrate this point, showing a comparison of days of inventory outstanding (DIO) for Intel and NVIDIA over the last five years, from 2020 to 2024. DIO is a measure of how many days it takes a company to sell its inventory Given Intel's inventory buildup and declining competitive edge, I find its current valuation multiples hard to justify. Specifically, the chart highlights a comparison of price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios between Intel, NVIDIA, and AMD. Focusing on non-GAAP earnings estimates for fiscal years FY1 through FY3, Intel is currently trading with the highest P/E ratio for FY1 at 87.7 almost twice the multiple of NVIDIA and AMD, which are at 46.29 and 46.25, respectively That said, the outlook changes somewhat when considering the years further ahead. For instance, in FY2, NVIDIA’s expected P/E ratio rises to the highest at 32.77, compared to Intel's 20.02 and AMD's 29.02. However, I want to emphasize the substantial uncertainty in Intel's earnings forecasts. As shown in the next chart, the consensus estimates for Intel's earnings per share (EPS) in FY 2024 range from a low of $0.15 to a high of $0.31 (a more than twofold variation) and from a low of $0.65 to a high of $2.1 (an almost fourfold variation). Given such uncertainty, I believe investors should be cautious about relying too heavily on forward P/E ratios too far into the future. Both Intel and NVIDIA have experienced significant fluctuations in DIO over the years. Notably, both companies saw a spike in 2023 due to the COVID pandemic, which disrupted global supply chains. As the disruption faded, both firms saw a recovery (ie, a reduction in DIO). the difference in recovery is striking. Intel's DIO peaked at over 150 days in 2023 and has since decreased to 125 days a modest reduction but still above its historical average of 114 days. In contrast, NVIDIA's DIO surged to over 200 days but has rapidly dropped to 76 days, which is not only below its four-year average of 97.9 days but also near its lowest level in four years. I expect Intel to face increasing competitive pressure as rivals like NVIDIA and AMD roll out their next-generation chips, particularly NVIDIA’s Blackwell chips. I recommend potential investors keep a close eye on inventory data, as it can signal changes in competitive dynamics for the reasons discussed here. In addition to inventory issues and valuation risks, Intel faces a few other specific challenges. A significant portion of Intel’s current product lineup is concentrated in certain segments, such as PCs, which I believe are nearing market saturation plus a large share of Intel’s revenue comes from China. Given the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, this heavy reliance on China poses a considerable geopolitical risk. These factors may limit Intel’s ability to adapt to technological advancements and shifting geopolitical conditions The potential for a QUALCOMM acquisition has emerged as a new major upside catalyst. While my outlook on Intel’s business remains pessimistic based on the latest inventory data, the acquisition possibility partially offsets these negatives, leading me to upgrade my rating from Sell to Hold or if you are risk taker like Me, load the dip
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by moonypto
AMAZON | AMZN , Jeff is back? While Jeff Bezos, fiancée Lauren Sánchez have star studded engagement party on his $500M yacht Amazon has just reported its Q2 2023 earnings result, EPS of 65 cents is not comparable on YoY basis nor to consensus due to the company booking some gains related to its Rivian Automotive, Inc (RIVN) investment. Revenue of $134.3 billion beat consensus by about 2% while showing a YoY jump by nearly 11%. As an immediate reaction, the stock is up nearly 8% after-hours, although this can turn on a dime.I wrote in my preview that Amazon still remains a revenue story and to pay attention to Q2's actual revenue and Q3's revenue guidance. Amazon hit it out of the park on both counts, with Q2 revenue showing an 11% jump and Q3 guidance of $138 billion to $143 billion, easily upping the consensus of $138.29 billion. As a direct effect of the company reining in on its expenses, Amazon's Free Cash Flow ("FCF") in Q2 2023 improved to almost $8 billon compared to -$23.5 billion in Q2 2022. Headcount is now down 4% YoY.Advertising, which I've highlighted as the next growth driver in many of my past articles, was up 22% YoY. But, more importantly, resumed its upward trajectory on a quarterly basis. Advertising services revenue showed continuous QoQ improvement until the first blip in Q1 2023. Whether Q2's upsurge is a new trend remains to be seen, but it is encouraging that Q2 did not follow Q1 down. I am also glad that my prediction that advertising will cross $10 billion in sales came true.It appears like retail has finally stopped bleeding profusely to avoid wasting all the gains from AWS and Advertising. In my view, retail is just their medium to sell their ecosystem, and this is acceptable to me. Heading into earnings, Amazon stock was almost into the oversold territory with a Relative Strength Index ("RSI") of 37. Revenue beat and guidance should help the stock garner more analyst support in the upcoming days, and I fully expect the stock's almost-oversold conditions to be in the stock's favor as it has plenty of room upwards technically. The after-hours move has also helped the stock clear all of the commonly used moving averages.AWS's revenue and operating income appeared to be on a perennial, mid-double-digit growth trajectory until recently. However, Q2 saw AWS' sales increase by "just" 12% while operating income fell by more than 5%. It is in this context that advertising services becomes even more important. While $22 billion is strong, it fell well short of the $25 billion I predicted, as the company aims to cross $100 billion in 2023 AWS revenue. The stock was already up 50% YTD heading into earnings and the run appears set to continue. I am not complaining as a long, but it shouldn't surprise anyone to see the stock pullback from the highs given the market's shaky behavior the last few days. Overall, Q2 results are much better than Q1, and that shows in the stock's performance, at least as shown in the after-hours price movement. However, Amazon has never been a single quarter or single year story for me. Amazon's ecosystem is enough reason for me to continue believing in the company long-term. The ability to leverage multiple products and services across the entire organization is not something any company can build overnight. In fact, even Amazon has taken nearly 30 years to be the company that it is today
NASDAQ:AMZN
by moonypto
5
COINBASE | COIN & SECCoinbase shares are up 35% since the SEC sued the crypto exchange for allegedly selling unregistered securities But Coinbase stock has bounced back, rising some 35% after dropping to a low of about $50 on the day that the SEC sued the U.S.’s largest crypto exchange. As of Wednesday morning, shares were trading near $70, and the publicly traded company’s market capitalization has risen to about $16.5 billion. The resurgence of Coinbase mirrors the broader boomerang of the crypto market in June, riding a Wall Streetfueled fever for Bitcoin that has lifted other cryptocurrencies and injected optimism into an industry that was reeling from a battery of enforcement from the federal government. The Coinbase stock has been rallying, the price of Bitcoin has been rallying, and then these two things usually play off of each other. Specifically, Bitcoin’s resurgence is tied to BlackRock’s recent filing of an application for Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, a surprising vote of confidence from the US.’s largest asset manager in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Shortly after BlackRock’s application became public, the price of Bitcoin soared, notching its highest price in more than a year as a slew of other asset managers filed applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs, potentially opening up the cryptocurrency to trillions in dollars from brokerage accounts and pension funds. And where Bitcoin goes, so goes the broader market, as the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies jumped from just about $1 trillion to now about $1.17 trillion. BlackRock’s ETF filing was not only a vote of confidence in Bitcoin but also Coinbase. Its application listed the publicly traded crypto exchange as the custodian for holding the trust’s underlying Bitcoin. For them to continue and list Coinbase as a custodian for their ETF was a strong signal that these SEC allegations are not that big of a deal I think the market is telling us…the worst is behind us, as far as U.S. regulatory crackdown is concerned
NASDAQ:COIN
by moonypto
6
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
AMD’s Earnings Stumble | A Golden Opportunity for Investors?Post Earnings Dip, Is AMD ready for a 2025 Comeback? Shares of Advanced Micro Devices dropped over 10% after releasing its third quarter FY2024 earnings report, which fell short of investors’ expectations. Although the results were not poor, the market had high hopes given AMD's premium stock valuation. The company did surpass revenue projections, but its non GAAP EPS matched market expectations plus the midpoint of its fourth-quarter revenue forecast slightly missed estimates. In my prior analysis, I upgraded AMD from a sell to a buy after a 20% dip, which realigned market expectations. Since that upgrade, the stock has climbed 15%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 9%. The recent earnings-driven decline has brought AMD's stock price close to my previously mentioned level. While the gaming segment saw a sharper decline in revenue in 3Q, the Data Center GPU division continued to exhibit strong growth, boosting overall revenue growth and improving margins. I believe AMD is still in a strong position to further accelerate revenue growth and margin expansion in the fourth quarter and beyond. As a result, I see the post-earnings dip as a buying opportunity and maintain my buy rating on the stock, supported by its anticipated growth phase justifying its premium valuation. For 4Q FY2024, AMD projects 21.6% YoY revenue growth at the midpoint of its guidance, with a $300 million potential variance. This growth is expected to be driven by continued expansion in Data Center GPUs. Although the midpoint guidance is slightly below market consensus, I believe AMD could exceed this number, given its track record. My estimate suggests a 24% YoY revenue increase, or $150 million above the midpoint. 3Q EPS Analysis Shows Margin Pressure AMD has shown consistent margin improvement since 4Q FY2023, though the pace in 3Q didn't meet expectations. EPS aligned with estimates despite revenue exceeding forecasts, indicating margin challenges. Non-GAAP gross margin rose by 50 bps sequentially, while non-GAAP EBIT margin showed strong improvement, rising by 350 bps QoQ. AMD forecasts a 4Q non-GAAP gross margin of 54% and operating expenses of $2.05 billion, driven by a favorable mix from its Data Center segment, which now represents 52% of total revenue. Management noted that gross margins in the Data Center segment are below the company average, focusing on customer needs and market growth for future gains. This contrasts with NVIDIA (NVDA), which reportedly has higher Data Center margins, though specific figures are not disclosed. With a 4Q revenue consensus at $7.65 billion, AMD projects a non-GAAP EBIT margin of 27.2%, suggesting an additional 200 bps sequential increase. The company appears well-positioned for both revenue growth and margin improvement, despite its valuation declining after the recent stock pullback. 4Q EPS Outlook Signals Continued Growth Although 3Q non-GAAP EPS met expectations, AMD’s growth accelerated from 18.1% YoY in 2Q to 32% in 3Q. However, the selloff post-earnings implies that investors anticipated even higher growth. Based on 4Q guidance, I estimate AMD’s non-GAAP EPS at $1.10, marking a 44% YoY increase. AMD's FCF profile also improved, generating $496 million in 3Q, a 13% QoQ increase despite a one-time acquisition-related expense of $123 million. Higher capital expenditures are expected in FY2025 to support MI300 growth and maintain momentum. Market Expectations and Valuation Impacts Before the 10% post 3Q selloff, AMD’s EV/EBITDA TTM was higher than NVIDIA’s, but they are now on par, despite AMD’s margins and growth trailing NVIDIA's. AMD’s non-GAAP EV/EBITDA forward multiple is 46.3x, compared to NVIDIA’s 42.6x, and its forward P/E ratio is 50.4x, 17% above its 5-year average and higher than NVIDIA’s 49.7x. While AMD's premium valuation can be justified given its growth acceleration, NVIDIA’s triple-digit EPS growth is not expected to continue. Moreover, NVIDIA’s gross margin recently declined, reinforcing the case for AMD’s valuation as it expands its growth in FY2025. AMD’s stock has retraced to a 0% YTD return due to margin concerns and underperformance in Gaming and Embedded segments, though the latter is gradually recovering. However, the company’s strong Data Center gains and continued margin expansion indicate a solid growth phase. The recent selloff has recalibrated market expectations, and with ongoing AI-driven demand, AMD’s growth is likely to extend into FY2025, making the pullback an attractive buying opportunity. What you think, Are you Moonish on AMD?
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
3
Tharimmune (THAR) Soars with Positive EMA Feedback!Analysis: Tharimmune (THAR) is showing strong upward momentum on the 15-minute timeframe, setting up for a promising long trade. Recent entry at 5.23, with clear targets ahead: Target 1: 7.31 Target 2: 10.69 Target 3: 14.07 Target 4: 16.16 Key Driver: Positive regulatory feedback from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on Tharimmune’s TH104 clinical program for treating chronic pruritus in primary biliary cholangitis has fueled significant investor interest, pushing the stock upward. Technical Overview: The chart illustrates a breakout pattern with well-defined support and resistance levels. If momentum continues, the stock is positioned to hit all targets as shown using the Risological Swing Trader as investor confidence builds.
NASDAQ:THARLong
by ProfitsNinja
TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) Skyrockets After NYC Rally! Next Big Move?TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) Analysis: Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) experienced a sharp rise in price, gaining over 10% in Tuesday’s pre-market trading following a high-profile rally by Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden. This rally, which attracted a wave of attention, likely fueled the surge in buying interest. The stock closed 21.59% higher the previous day, marking a significant increase. Trade Setup: Entry Point: $30.15 Stop Loss: $20.95 Target Levels: TP 1: $41.53 TP 2: $59.93 TP 3: $78.33 TP 4: $89.70 Technical Indicators: The Risological dotted trend line indicates bullish momentum, suggesting that buyers are stepping in forcefully. With TP 1 already reached, the stock has shown strong momentum, making the higher targets achievable if this rally sustains. Market Sentiment: Post-event enthusiasm and Trump’s push on key issues seem to resonate with certain investor groups, potentially sparking further interest. Given the volume spike to 110.35M, far above its 30-day average, momentum remains high. Outlook: With further upside potential, the stock could reach its higher target levels if the rally and media attention continue to bolster confidence. Keep a close watch on volume and price action to capture potential profit-taking points or to ride the bullish wave to higher targets.
NASDAQ:DJTLong
by ProfitsNinja
MPHASIS Surges! TP 2 Hit, Targets in Sight!Technical Analysis: Mphasis has been on a bullish move, as seen on the 15-minute timeframe. After a solid long entry at 3021.90, the price action has been steadily climbing, supported by the Risological Dotted Trendline, which signals continued upward momentum. Key Levels: Entry: 3021.90 Stop Loss (SL): 2993.70 Target 1 (TP1): 3056.75 ✅ (Hit!) Target 2 (TP2): 3113.10 ✅ (Hit!) Target 3 (TP3): 3169.50 Target 4 (TP4): 3204.35 Observations: The price has already reached TP2, confirming the strong bullish momentum. Momentum supported by the Risological Dotted Trendline shows the possibility of further targets being achieved. With TP2 hit and momentum intact, Mphasis is showing strong signs of hitting higher targets. Keep an eye on the next resistance levels at TP3 and TP4 for continued gains!
NSE:MPHASISLong
by ProfitsNinja
ZensarTec Ready to Rally! Waiting for Targets to Fire!Technical Analysis: ZensarTec on the 15-minute timeframe is poised for a long trade after a solid entry signal. The price is currently moving upward, following the support from the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming the strength in momentum. Key Levels: Entry: 680.00 Stop Loss (SL): 658.20 Target 1 (TP1): 706.90 (Next target) Target 2 (TP2): 750.50 Target 3 (TP3): 794.05 Target 4 (TP4): 821.00 Observations: The price has recently shown signs of strength, bouncing off the Risological Dotted Trendline and gaining bullish momentum. With volume support, the price is likely to hit the initial target of TP1 soon, potentially leading to a cascade of target completions. ZensarTec is gearing up for an upward breakout as it tests its first target. Watch for TP1 to confirm and the possibility of higher targets being hit as bullish momentum builds. Stay tuned for a strong price movement ahead!
NSE:ZENSARTECHLong
by ProfitsNinja
MAZDOCK Short Trade Smashes TP1—More Targets Await!MAZDOCK (15m time frame), Short Trade Entry: ₹4,451.90 Current Price: ₹4,205.85 TP1 Hit, Waiting for Lower Targets Key Levels: Entry: ₹4,451.90 – Positioned after confirmation of bearish trend on the 15m time frame, supported by price moving below the Risological Dotted Trendline. Stop-Loss (SL): ₹4,650.95 – Placed above recent resistance levels to manage risk in case of reversal. Take Profit 1 (TP1): ₹4,205.85 – Already hit, confirming downward momentum. Take Profit 2 (TP2): ₹3,807.75 – Next target, indicating further potential bearish continuation. Take Profit 3 (TP3): ₹3,409.65 – Further downside target as selling pressure builds. Take Profit 4 (TP4): ₹3,163.60 – Final target for extended bearish trend. Trend Analysis: The price has decisively broken below support and maintained its position under the Risological Dotted Trendline, confirming strong selling pressure. After TP1 was hit, the trade shows continuation of bearish momentum, with further targets likely to be reached as the trend develops.
NSE:MAZDOCKShort
by ProfitsNinja
BlueStarCo Soars from 747.95 to 1926: All Targets Reached!BlueStarCo has shown a remarkable bullish run since entering at 747.95 on 6th September 2023. The price has not only reached all take profit targets but also surged far beyond expectations, currently trading at 1926. Key Levels: Entry: 747.95 – This marked the point where the bullish momentum took hold. Stop-Loss (SL): 724.85 – Positioned below the entry to minimize downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 776.55 – Reached early in the trade, confirming a strong start. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 822.80 – Hit as the upward momentum continued. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 869.10 – Met, indicating strong sustained buying pressure. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 897.65 – Final target hit, followed by a significant price surge beyond all targets. Trend Analysis: The price action has been well-supported by the Risological dotted trendline, confirming a consistent uptrend. The continuous rise from the entry point shows no signs of reversal, with the current price sitting at 1926, nearly doubling the initial entry value. Traders who held on to this trade have seen tremendous returns, and further gains are still possible as the momentum remains strong.
NSE:BLUESTARCOLong
by ProfitsNinja
penny 1. **Rounding Bottoms** 🔵 The stock shows a series of **rounding bottoms** (marked on the chart), indicating a slow but steady shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. This pattern is like a **U-shape** 🏺, where the price slowly bottoms out and starts to rise again. The concept of **higher highs (HH)** ⬆️ rounding bottoms shows that each new bottom forms at a higher level than the previous one, reflecting growing strength in the stock. 2. **Volume Contraction** 📉 **Whenever stock forms a rounding bottom, volume contracts** 🛑. This is visible in the early stages of these rounded formations, where the volume bars shrink. Contraction often hints that **weak hands** are exiting the stock and strong hands are accumulating quietly. 3. **Volume Expansion on Breakout** 📈 As soon as the stock moves up**, you can see the **volume build** as well. This signals a breakout from the rounding bottom pattern as **new buyers** rush in with increasing enthusiasm 🔥. 4. **Multiple Rounding Patterns** 🔄 The stock exhibits multiple rounding patterns, and each is followed by a **rise** ⬆️ in price. This shows the stock moves in cycles, consolidating for some time before **breaking out** again. 5. **Recent Move and Strong Push** 💥 The most recent move in October 2024 is dramatic. The stock surged from around ₹180 to ₹207, a significant gain of about **16.64%** 📊, suggesting bullish momentum is accelerating 🚀. Look at the **volume spike** 🔊 accompanying the price surge—this confirms strong institutional or retail interest in the stock during this period. 6. **Key Takeaway: Patience Pays** ⌛ **Higher highs in rounding bottoms** indicate that the stock is slowly but consistently gaining strength. Though these formations take time to develop, they are often followed by strong upward movements 🏁. Extra tip: When you spot **volume contraction** during a rounded bottom, it could signal a potential **entry point** before a breakout. The expansion in volume later confirms a **strong uptrend**.
NSE:PENINDLong
by investigationofchart
Advanced Micro Devices | AMD Team RED is READY As with any competitor, a quarterly earnings report from a peer can provide great insight into the market. For Advanced Micro Devices, the Q2'23 earnings report from Intel provides great views on the surging demand for AI chips and a rebound in PC demand crucial for AMD The most immediate signal from Intel beating Q2'23 estimates and guiding up for Q3 is the rebound in PC demand. Most importantly, the inventory correction appears over with OEMs no longer digesting chip inventory.Back in Q3'22, AMD shocked the market by cutting PC revenue estimates by $1 billion. The company quickly went from $2 billion in quarterly CPU sales for PCs to less than $1 billion. Intel still reported Q2 Client Computing revenue was down 12% YoY to $6.8 billion, but the number was up $1.0 billion sequentially. The chip giant guided up Q3 revenue to $13.4 billion, up $0.5 billion sequentially.In Q1'23, AMD reported that client revenues had fallen further to only $739 million. AMD CPU revenues are now far over $1 billion per quarter below the peak levels providing substantial upside potential when the PC market normalizes. Intel discussed a mixed picture for their business in the near term due to AI. The chip giant is seeing a wallet share shift from the sever CPU spend towards AI chips.The move is both good and bad for AMD. The company has the MI300 AI GPU chip hitting the market in Q4 providing a strong competitor to the booming demand for the H100 from Nvidia, but the chip isn't out on the market yet. In the near term, AMD may see some suppressed data center demand while heading into 2024. Ultimately, the company should see upside from AI demand for the MI300 along with the Alveo AI accelerator.On the Q2'23 earnings call, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger suggested the AI pipeline for 2024 had surged to $1 billion: In my formal remarks, we said we now have over $1 billion of pipeline, 6x in the last quarter. Going back a few months, Morgan Stanley had estimated the AI potential for AMD was only $400 million with upside potential to $1.2 billion. The Intel forecasts would suggest the AI potential for AMD is far higher next year when the MI300 is in full-scale production. Nvidia guided up current quarter sales estimates by 50% to over $11 billion. The company suggested data center sales would reach $7+ billion in the quarter. AMD has only seen data center sales reach $1.3 billion in quarterly sales leaving a huge gap from Nvidia. Even Intel still hit $4.0 billion in data center sales during Q2'23, though the amount is down nearly 20% form 2022 levels due in part to losing market share to AMD. The big issue for AMD is whether data center sales growth stalls causing a miss to 2H sales targets while booming AI demand ultimately boosts sales starting in Q1'24, or maybe Q4. The chip company peaked at quarterly sales of $6.6 billion back Q2'22 and the current quarterly analyst estimates aren't very aggressive. A rebound in PC demand to more normalized levels places AMD back at the Q4'23 revenue target of $6.5 billion alone. A PC rebound to normal digestion ($2 billion quarterly run rate) along with higher data center or AI demand leads to vastly higher revenues in 2024. The current analysts aren't even factoring in much growth in the Q2'24 revenue estimate of $6.76 billion. The amount is just 4% upside from Q2'22 despite potentially surging demand from AMD entering the AI GPU space. AMD is set to report earrings after the close on August 1. Investors should focus less on the Q2 numbers or even Q3 guidance and focus more on a return to more normalized revenue levels plus the upside from AI.Our view has long held that AMD has the earnings potential of $5 to $6 and the AI opportunity is all upside to this view. The key investor takeaway is that AMD is still $50 below all time highs while Nvidia has soared over $100 above the late 2021 highs. Investors should use the current weakness in AMD to load up on the stock while leaving some capital to buy any weakness following Q2 earnings due to the potential for near term disappointment leading to long term opportunities.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
12
Walt Disney Co | DISThe Walt Disney Company is reportedly exploring options to sell or find a joint venture partner for its India digital and TV business, reflecting the company's ongoing strategic evaluation of its operations in the region. The talks are still in the early stages, with no specific buyer or partner identified yet. The outcome and direction of the process remain uncertain. Internally, discussions have commenced within Disney's headquarters in the United States as executives deliberate on the most viable course of action. These deliberations signify the company's willingness to adapt and optimize its business operations to align with changing market dynamics. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 11 that Disney had engaged with at least one bank to explore potential avenues for assisting the growth of its India business while sharing the associated costs. This approach suggests a proactive stance by the company to explore partnerships or arrangements that can drive growth while minimizing financial burdens. While it is too early to ascertain the exact direction this exploration will take, the developments in Disney's India business warrant attention, as they may shape the future landscape of the company's presence in this all-important region. The ongoing shift from traditional TV to streaming has placed Disney and its competitors in a costly and transformative phase. As part of this transition, Disney is actively cutting costs amid macroeconomic challenges that have impacted its advertising revenue and subscriber growth. CEO Bob Iger has been at the forefront of these changes, and his contract was recently extended through 2026 to allow him sufficient time to make transformative changes while strengthening the bench with future leaders of the company. One of the key considerations for Disney is evaluating its portfolio of TV networks, including ABC and ESPN. Bob Iger has expressed a willingness to be expansive in assessing the traditional TV business, leaving open the possibility of selling certain networks while retaining others acknowledging that networks like ABC may not be core to Disney's new business model. ESPN, as a cable TV channel, is being approached differently. Disney is open to exploring strategic partnerships, such as joint ventures or offloading ownership stakes, to navigate the challenges faced by the sports network. CEO Iger, who had previously expressed pessimism about the future of traditional TV, has found the situation to be worse than anticipated since his return to Disney. Although the linear networks segment, which accounts for Disney's TV properties such as ABC, National Geographic, FX, and FreeForm, has struggled to grow in the recent past, this segment is still an important part of the company's business, which is evident from the positive operating income reported by this segment in fiscal 2022. As below data reveals, the DTC business and content licensing made operating losses in FY 2022 which were offset by the operating income reported by linear networks. For this reason, investors will have to closely monitor a potential sale of TV assets to evaluate the impact of such a decision on Disney's profitability. The broadcasting landscape is experiencing a significant shift, with uncertainties surrounding its future and the changing nature of consumer preferences. While linear television channels are not expected to disappear immediately, their consumption continues to decline as viewers increasingly favor OTT platforms. This transition represents a fundamental trend shaping the industry. In terms of business models, subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services will continue to grow with targeted advertising. As the ascent of streaming video continues, cable, satellite, and internet TV providers in the United States faced their most significant subscriber losses to date in the first quarter of 2023. Analyst estimates indicate a collective shedding of 2.3 million customers during this period. Consequently, the total penetration of pay-TV services in occupied U.S. households, including internet-based services like YouTube TV and Hulu, dropped to its lowest point since 1992, standing at 58.5%, according to Moffett's calculations. In Q1, pay-TV services in the U.S. witnessed a nearly 7% decline in customers compared to the previous year, with cable TV operators experiencing a 9.9% decline, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network registered subscriber losses of 13.4%. Virtual MVPDs, which are multichannel video programming distributors, also suffered significant losses, shedding 264,000 customers during the quarter. Comcast, the largest pay-TV provider in the country, lost 614,000 video customers in Q1, and Google's YouTube TV was the only tracked provider to experience subscriber growth, adding an estimated 300,000 subscribers during the period. These trends illustrate the challenges faced by the pay-TV industry, with factors like increasing sports-broadcast fees driving retail prices higher, leading to cord-cutting and subsequent price adjustments by distributors. By 2026, e-Marketer predicts that the number of non-pay TV households will surpass pay TV households by over 25 million. In efforts to achieve profitability in the streaming business, Disney has implemented significant cost-cutting measures, including saving $5.5 billion through cost reductions and layoffs, and a focus on making Disney+ and Hulu more profitable. Disney aims to enhance Hulu integration, seeing it as a vital component of the company's transition from TV to a streaming-only model. Discussions are also underway for Disney to acquire Comcast Corporation's (CMCSA) stake in Hulu, as Disney currently holds 66% ownership. The company believes that the integration of Hulu and Disney+ will bolster the streaming business and contribute to its profitability. While the negotiations with Comcast over Hulu's valuation are ongoing, the combined offering of Disney+ and Hulu is expected to be available to consumers by the end of the calendar year. Although Disney's plans for ESPN+ and the fate of its other cable channels, such as the Disney Channel, remain uncertain, Bob Iger expects ESPN to eventually move to a streaming-only model, acknowledging the disruptive nature of the traditional TV business model. The discussions surrounding Walt Disney's TV and streaming business in India come at a critical juncture for the company, as it grapples with intensified competition and significant challenges in the market. The emergence of Reliance Industries' JioCinema streaming platform has posed a considerable threat to Disney's dominance, especially after Reliance secured digital rights for the highly popular Indian Premier League cricket tournament. This strategic move by Reliance, which offered free access to the tournament earlier this year, caused a substantial decline in Disney+ Hotstar's subscribers, a popular streaming service under Disney's India business. Additionally, Viacom18, which is backed by Reliance and Paramount Global (PARA), made a significant impact on Disney's market position in India. Through its partnership with Warner Bros, Viacom18 secured content rights to popular shows on HBO including Succession, previously aired on Disney's platform. This collaboration forms a formidable alliance challenging Disney's dominance in the Indian market. Reliance's freemium model poses the most significant threat to Disney's current position. By offering content for free on its streaming platform, JioCinema attracted a substantial number of subscribers through the broadcast of IPL. With its ample cash reserves, Reliance has the advantage of focusing on subscriber growth without immediately focusing on monetization strategies. The loss of streaming rights for the IPL, combined with a subsequent decline in paid subscribers, had a profound impact on Disney's reputation in India in the first quarter of this year, which could very well be the most challenging Q1 Disney has had in India for a long time. A report on video consumption trends in India by Media Partners Asia sheds light on the dynamic landscape of the online video sector in India. For the 15 months that ended in March 2023, total consumption across the online video sector reached a staggering 6.1 trillion minutes. During this period, Disney+ Hotstar emerged as the dominant player in premium VOD, capturing 38% of viewing time. The report attributes Hotstar's success to its strong sports offerings and the depth of its Hindi and regional entertainment content. During the survey period, Zee and Sony together held a 13% share of the Indian premium video sector viewing time. While the two companies are expected to merge pending regulatory approval, they are projected to operate independently for another year, benefiting from strong engagement across sports as well as regional, local, and international content. Prime Video and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) collectively accounted for a 10% share of viewership in the premium VOD category. Prime Video also garnered a significant portion of viewership from regional Indian titles. The report emphasizes that local content dominates premium VOD viewership, particularly outside the sports category, while international content leads paid tiers. Catch-up TV is prevalent in the free tier across freemium streaming platforms. Although Disney was the clear winner in 2022, this report highlights a significant shake-up in the market brought about by the transformation of JioCinema. JioCinema, which previously held a mere 2% share of the premium video market, experienced a major upswing in growth since April. This surge can be attributed to JioCinema's decision to offer free live streaming of the popular IPL cricket tournament, a property that was previously exclusive to Disney-owned media in India. Despite technical glitches impacting user experience, JioCinema witnessed a more than 20-fold increase in consumption in April 2023, enabling it to dominate the premium VOD category. The report raises questions about JioCinema's ability to sustain this growth and scale in the absence of IPL action after June 2023. That being said, this could be an early indication of growth challenges Disney-owned brands may face in India. Star India, now known as Disney Star following the rebranding last year, is expected to experience a revenue drop of around 20% to less than $2 billion for the fiscal year ending September 2023. Additionally, EBITDA is projected to decline by approximately 50% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Hotstar is estimated to lose 8 to 10 million subscribers in its fiscal third quarter as well. Given the current scenario, finding an outright buyer for Disney's India business is expected to be challenging. When Disney acquired the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox in 2019, the enterprise value of the Indian business was estimated at around $15-16 billion. This high valuation, coupled with the intense competition and declining subscriber base, presents a complex landscape for potential buyers or partners. I believe Disney stock is attractively valued today given that the company's streaming business has a long runway for growth internationally while its brand assets will continue to drive revenue higher. As an investor, I am both concerned and curious about what the future holds for Disney's linear networks segment. Going by the recent remarks of CEO Iger, major changes are on their way. A strategic decision to divest non-core assets, in my opinion, will trigger a positive response from the market. That being said, a major divestment of TV assets could materially impact the company's profitability in the next 3-5 years until its streaming business scales enough to replace lost revenue from the linear networks segment. Investors will have to closely monitor new developments to identify a potential inflection point in Disney's story.
NYSE:DIS
by moonypto
4
WIPRO LONG Trade Hits First Target! Bullish Momentum BuildsWipro has shown a strong bullish movement, reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 550.85 on 14th October at 12:45 PM. Key Levels Entry : 540.80 – Wipro started its upward movement from this key support level, leading to a breakout. Stop-Loss (SL) : 532.65 – This level is positioned below the entry to protect against any potential downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1) : 550.85 – Already achieved, confirming the strength of the uptrend. Take Profit 2 (TP2) : 567.10 – The next target to watch as bullish momentum continues. Take Profit 3 (TP3) : 583.35 – If buying pressure persists, this level could be tested next. Take Profit 4 (TP4) : 593.40 – The ultimate target signaling the potential for a strong bullish rally. Trend Analysis The price is clearly above the support of the Risological dotted trendline, indicating a strong uptrend. The sharp upward movement followed by a small consolidation suggests the possibility of further gains. With TP1 reached, the next targets are in focus, and a move above 550.85 will likely lead to TP2 being hit. Wipro has reached its first profit target at 550.85, confirming bullish momentum. The next targets at 567.10 and beyond could be reached if the uptrend holds, with solid support from the Risological trendline and strong buying interest.
NSE:WIPROLong
by ProfitsNinja
Muthoot Finance Long Trade on 15m Time Frame: Trade in ProgressA long entry was initiated at 1927.05 on the 9th of October at 10:15 am. The price is nearing Target 1 (1963.50) and remains on track for further movement towards the upper targets. We have now set a trailing stop at 1928.50 to lock in gains and manage risk. Target Points: TP 1: 1963.50 (close to being hit) TP 2: 2022.50 TP 3: 2081.50 TP 4: 2117.95 Trailing Stop: 1928.50 Stop Loss (SL): 1897.55 We'll keep a close eye on this position as it progresses towards the remaining targets.
NSE:MUTHOOTFINLong
by ProfitsNinja