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NATRIUM | Investing | Why BILL GATES is Betting on NATRIUMBill Gates is betting big on Natrium - should you be, too? Natrium is this next-generation nuclear reactor design that's attracting a lot of attention from people like Bill Gates and other major investors. What's particularly interesting about it is that it combines a fast reactor with a built-in molten salt "battery." Essentially, it can generate a steady output of power and then provide an extra boost during peak demand by drawing on its stored heat. This design aims for greater flexibility in meeting fluctuating electricity needs. The technology is a joint development by TerraPower, the company co-founded by Bill Gates, and GE Hitachi. They're presenting it as a zero-carbon power source capable of reliably backing up intermittent renewables like wind and solar, ensuring a consistent supply of clean energy. The excitement from investors like Bill Gates appears to be driven by the need to address climate change and secure reliable energy supplies. They view Natrium as a way to deliver large-scale, carbon-free power while potentially overcoming some of the limitations of older nuclear reactor designs. Gates has emphasized the enhanced safety features and potential for lower operating costs. Furthermore, Natrium's specific design to complement the intermittency of solar and wind, through its energy storage, is a significant draw for investors looking at future energy solutions. The substantial public and private investment, including government funding and bipartisan legislative support, also signals strong confidence in this technology. The description of TerraPower as a "Bill Gates-backed" firm developing this multi-billion dollar demonstration plant highlights the high-profile nature of the project. The fact that corporate partners, such as the data center company exploring Natrium for their power needs, are also getting involved indicates a broader recognition of its potential beyond just government initiatives. Compared to traditional nuclear reactors, Natrium offers some potential advantages. Its sodium coolant operates at near-atmospheric pressure, simplifying safety compared to the high-pressure water systems in older designs. This allows for natural heat dissipation in case of issues, reducing the risk of large steam explosions. Another key aspect is Natrium's potential for more efficient fuel utilization and reduced long-lived waste generation. The design aims for better fuel efficiency and a smaller volume of long-term radioactive waste compared to current light-water reactors. Natrium's primary advantage over wind and solar is its dispatchability. Unlike the intermittent nature of renewables, Natrium can provide power consistently, 24/7. The integrated energy storage allows it to complement renewables by absorbing excess energy or releasing power during periods of low renewable output. This firm grid support is a significant benefit for utilities concerned about grid stability and the variability of renewable sources. For utilities transitioning away from coal, Natrium offers a carbon-free, relatively direct replacement in terms of power output. It also has a smaller land footprint compared to large-scale wind or solar installations. There are inherent challenges with a first-of-a-kind system like Natrium. The prototype is still under construction, lacking a proven operational track record. Construction and licensing processes could face delays and cost overruns. Critics also raise valid points about the actual safety and cost-effectiveness compared to projections. The use of sodium coolant, while offering safety advantages, also presents risks due to its reactivity with air and water, requiring robust containment systems. Regulatory scrutiny will undoubtedly be extensive. And fuel supply is a critical uncertainty. Natrium requires high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is not currently widely available. Disruptions in the supply chain and limited existing production capacity pose a significant risk to the timely and cost-effective operation of Natrium plants. Looking ahead, Natrium is being considered for deployment in regions needing reliable power to complement renewables and to power energy-intensive industries. The long-term vision involves integrating Natrium with renewable energy sources to create a more stable and decarbonized grid. The speculative outlook for Natrium in the next 5-10 years is heavily dependent on the successful completion of the Wyoming demonstration plant. If it meets its targets, it could pave the way for wider adoption. However, the timeline is ambitious, and challenges related to fuel supply and regulatory approvals remain. A successful demonstration could trigger significant investment and adoption in the coming decades, positioning Natrium as a key player in the energy transition. If you're interested in investing in companies involved with TerraPower's Natrium reactor, several publicly traded firms are integral to its development and supply chain: 🔧 Engineering & Construction KBR Inc. | (NYSE: KBR) KBR has formed a strategic alliance with TerraPower to commercialize and deploy Natrium reactors globally. The collaboration focuses on creating a replicable contracting framework to reduce financial risk and ensure cost transparency in deploying Natrium technology. terrapower.com ⚛️ Nuclear Fuel & Components BWX Technologies Inc. | (NYSE: BWXT) BWXT has been awarded a contract by TerraPower to design the Intermediate Heat Exchanger for the Natrium demonstration project. This component is critical for transferring heat within the reactor system. Centrus Energy Corp. | (NYSE American: LEU) Centrus Energy is collaborating with TerraPower to establish domestic production capabilities for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU), which is essential for fueling the Natrium reactor. ⚙️ Manufacturing & Industrial Partners Doosan Enerbility Co., Ltd. | 034020.KQ (KOSDAQ) Doosan Enerbility is supplying critical components for the Natrium reactor, including the core barrel and internal supports. HD Hyundai | 329180.KQ HD Hyundai is manufacturing the reactor vessel for the Natrium project. 🌍 International Collaborators SK Inc. | 034730.KQ SK Inc., a South Korean conglomerate, has invested $250 million in TerraPower to support the demonstration and commercialization of the Natrium reactor. Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) | 15760.KS (KOSPI) KHNP has entered into a strategic collaboration with TerraPower to support the Natrium project, leveraging its expertise in nuclear power development. OTHERS: 1. Mirion Technologies (NYSE: MIR) Mirion is supplying the Radiation Monitoring System (RMS) and Nuclear Instrumentation System (XIS) for the Natrium Reactor Demonstration Project in Wyoming. 2. GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) Through its subsidiary, Global Nuclear Fuel–Americas (GNF-A), GE Vernova is partnering with TerraPower to establish the Natrium Fuel Facility in Wilmington, North Carolina. This facility aims to produce high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel essential for the Natrium reactor. 3. NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE: SMR) While not directly involved with the Natrium project, NuScale is a prominent developer of small modular reactors (SMRs), a category that includes Natrium. The company's advancements in SMR technology contribute to the broader nuclear energy landscape. 4. Southern Company (NYSE: SO) Southern Company is collaborating with TerraPower on the development of a molten chloride fast reactor (MCFR), a separate advanced nuclear project. Their involvement in advanced nuclear technologies aligns with the innovations seen in the Natrium project. ________________________________ Sources: Recent industry reports and news articles and TerraPower press releases provide the data above. Also put together with the help of AI. world-nuclear-news.org, ans.org, gatesnotes.com, scientificamerican.com, terrapower.com, reuters.com
NSE:TATACHEMLong
by CryptoCheck-
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
Asahi songwon Color tring to score a break out. Asahi Songwon Colors Ltd. engages in the business of manufacturing and export of color pigments and its derivatives. Asahi Songwon Colors Ltd. Closing price is 361.40. The positive aspects of the company are Companies with Zero Promoter Pledge, Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Annual Profit Growth higher than Sector Profit Growth and Companies with Upcoming Results. The Negative aspects of the company are high Valuation (P.E. = 29.8), Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income and Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash. Entry can be taken after closing above 364 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 382 and 399. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 420 and 440. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 333 or 313 depending upon your risk taking ability. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:ASAHISONGLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Tamilnad Merca Bank trying to rise with volumes.Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd. engages in the provision of banking services. It offers loan products, current accounts, business and prepaid cards, online and foreign exchange services. It operates through the following business segments: Treasury, Corporate/Wholesale Banking, and Retail Banking. Tamilnad Mercantile Bank Ltd. Closing price is 456.10. The positive aspects of the company are Very Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 6.1), Companies with Zero Promoter Pledge, Companies with Low Debt, Company able to generate Net Cash - Improving Net Cash Flow, FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding and Mutual Funds Increased Shareholding over the Past Two Months. The Negative aspects of the company are Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Declining profits every quarter for the past 2 quarters and Increase in Provisions in Recent Results. Entry can be taken after closing above 457 Historical Resistance in the stock will be 472 and 486. PEAK Historic Resistance in the stock will be 494 and 502. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 437 or 423 depending upon your risk taking ability. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:TMBLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Tesla: At a Crossroads – Accumulation or Breakdown?One of the most talked-about stocks right now — Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA . And for good reason. Between the constant media buzz around Elon Musk and the recent surge in vandalism against Tesla vehicles, it’s been getting plenty of attention. But I’m not here to talk politics or headlines — I’m here for the chart. And honestly? It’s looking better than you’d think. Despite all the noise, price has held steady in the $225 to $270 range, showing signs of a sideways accumulation phase — right at the Point of Control (POC) since 2021. That’s a pretty strong area, technically speaking. Over the next few weeks, we’re likely to get clarity: Either we break above $350, which opens up serious upside potential, Or we break down toward the Volume Area Low — specifically the 2024 VAL at $161.18. The real danger zone? Below $138. If price breaks that level, we have to assume that Wave 2 isn’t done yet — even though it was originally considered complete in 2023. Until then, the structure actually looks constructive: we’ve been putting in higher lows and higher highs since 2023, which signals a potential uptrend. How far that uptrend goes is hard to call. But if we break and hold above $325, then a pullback toward $300–$270 could offer a clean entry opportunity. On the flip side, yes — if the market collapses and Wave II is still unfolding, we could be staring at $175, $125, or even as low as $75–$50 in an extreme scenario. And that would be wild for a stock that once touched $485. But that’s why it’s crucial to zoom out. Ask yourself: What do I want from Tesla — long-term conviction or short-term plays? Then build your view. If the macro fits, dial into the lower time frames to find your edge. The setup is building — and it’s looking like Tesla is prepping for a big move. Question is: which direction are you positioned for?
NASDAQ:TSLA
by stromm
ICON — Breakout from Rectangle with H Projection Targeting $700ICON (3D) — Technical Structure Analysis ICON has broken out from a prolonged horizontal rectangle pattern ($380–$540). The move activated a measured move structure with two H-sized waves. The first H was completed. The second H projects a move to the $700 area. Key points: -Confirmed breakout from range -First H = 153 pts, completed -Second H = 162 pts, targeting $700 -Price holding above breakout zone ($515–$541) ICON has moved out of accumulation and entered trend expansion. As long as the support holds, the scenario remains valid. The technical model targets the $700 area.
TASE:ICONLong
by TotoshkaTrades
Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback. Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240. Influential News: Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA. Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today. Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth. Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects. Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9). Indicators: Weekly: RSI: ~50 (neutral). Stochastic: ~45 (neutral). MFI: ~40 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness. Daily: RSI: ~48 (neutral). Stochastic: ~50 (neutral). MFI: ~45 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback. Hourly: RSI: ~45 (neutral). Stochastic: ~55 (neutral). MFI: ~50 (neutral). SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish). Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing. Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support. Options Positioning (May 2025): Volume: Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets. Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245. Open Interest: Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest. Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0. IV Skew: Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope. Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor. Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240. Karsan’s Interpretation: Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250. Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250. GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range. DEX: +7M shares, neutral. Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key. ICT/SMT Analysis: Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence. Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245. 1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245. 10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM. Trade Idea: Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid. Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range. Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's KWEB Trading Guide 4/13/25Analysis: Post-Close Options Activity (April 11): Data: System reports 469.32K contracts traded on April 11, with puts at 10.99% (calls ~89%). High call volume at $31/$32 strikes suggests bullish bets. Interpretation: Call-heavy flow indicates retail/institutional optimism, likely targeting a sweep above $31.35 (weekly high). Potential for a liquidity sweep trapping longs, aligning with ICT/SMT reversal. RSI (14) Level and Trend: Estimate: Daily RSI ~55 (neutral-bullish), based on April 11 close ($30.52, +2.97% from $29.62). Uptrend from April 8 low ($27.95) but below March 17 peak ($38.401) avoids overbought. Interpretation: RSI supports bullish setups (above 50), with room for upside before resistance (~70). A sweep to $31.50 could push RSI higher, signaling OTE retracement. Anonymized X Post Insights (April 11–13): Summary: Posts highlight Chinese tech optimism (e.g., DeepSeek AI, consumer spending), tempered by tariff fears (Trump’s 125% threats). Some speculate on KWEB breaking $31, others note volatility risks. Interpretation: Mixed sentiment leans bullish, with chatter about AI and stimulus driving buy-side interest. Tariff uncertainty suggests potential sell-side sweeps if news escalates. Potential Reversals/Catalysts: Liquidity Sweeps: Call-heavy options and X speculation point to a buy-side sweep above $31.35 (W-High), trapping retail longs before an OTE reversal to $30.00 (HVN). Institutional Positioning: High call OI suggests dealers hedging bullish bets, but tariff risks could trigger smart money to fade retail. Catalysts: Retail Sales (April 15) or tariff relief news could spike KWEB, while escalation could drive sell-side volatility. Why: Sentiment aligns with ICT/SMT, where bullish retail chatter sets up sweeps, and smart money reverses at OTE. Neutral-bullish RSI and call volume support a setup. Action: Log sentiment as neutral-bullish, expect sweep above $31 or drop to $29 on tariff news. Highlight for video: “KWEB’s call-heavy buzz could trap retail—watch for a smart money reversal.” Tariff Impact Assessment: Severe Exposure: KWEB’s holdings (e.g., PDD, JD.com, Tencent) rely on China’s internet economy, with significant supply chain and consumer exposure to U.S.-China trade. Tariffs (e.g., 125% proposed) raise costs for e-commerce and tech exports, hurting revenues. Example: PDD (Temu) faces U.S. import duties, squeezing margins; JD.com’s logistics chain is tariff-sensitive. Current Policy (April 13): Context: Trump’s April 10 statement escalates tariffs to 125% on Chinese goods, with no relief confirmed by April 13. Web reports (Reuters, April 4) note market volatility from tariff fears, impacting KWEB’s April 8 low ($27.95). Impact: Severe, as KWEB’s ETF structure amplifies holdings’ tariff pain (e.g., Alibaba, Tencent ADRs). Sentiment sours on escalation, driving sell-side sweeps. Tariff Relief Potential: Scenario: A 90-day pause or negotiation (rumored on X, inconclusive) could lift KWEB +3–5% ($31.50–$32.00), as seen in past relief rallies (e.g., February 2025, +1.6% on pause news). Fundamentals: Relief boosts consumer spending on KWEB’s holdings, supporting bullish MSS. Without relief, bearish pressure persists. AMT Tie-In: Tariff news creates imbalances (LVN breaks), with price seeking HVNs (e.g., $30.00) post-volatility. Why: Severe tariff exposure makes KWEB sensitive to trade news, fueling sweeps (buy-side on relief, sell-side on escalation), per ICT/SMT. Action: Rate tariff impact severe, monitor April 14 for negotiation updates. Video: “Tariffs could sink KWEB, but relief might spark a sweep to $32—stay sharp.” News/Catalysts Current (April 11, 2025) Closing Price: System Data: KWEB closed at $30.52 (currentPrice), +2.97% from prevDayClose ($29.62). Verification: Matches April 11 high ($30.63), low ($29.41), open ($30.12). Drivers: Positive: Call-heavy options (89% calls) and AI buzz (DeepSeek, X posts) drove the rally. Web reports note Chinese tech resilience despite tariffs. Negative: Tariff fears capped gains, with X posts citing Trump’s 125% threat as a drag. Sector Trends: China ETFs rose (e.g., MCHI +2.1%, April 11), supporting KWEB’s move. Why: Options flow and AI speculation fueled bullish momentum, but tariffs restrained breakout above $31. Action: Highlight $30.52 close, +2.97%, driven by calls and AI. Video: “KWEB jumped 3% on AI hype, but tariffs loom large.” Upcoming (Week of April 14–18) Events: April 15, Retail Sales (8:30 AM): Measures U.S. consumer spending, impacting KWEB’s e-commerce holdings (PDD, JD.com). April 16–18, Tariff Talks: Potential U.S.-China negotiations, per X chatter (inconclusive). Ongoing, China Stimulus: Rumored fiscal measures could lift Chinese tech, no date confirmed. Predictions: Bullish (+3%, ~$31.50): Strong Retail Sales (+0.5% MoM) or stimulus news boosts e-commerce, sweeping buy-side liquidity ($31.35). Bearish (-3%, ~$29.50): Weak Retail Sales (-0.2% MoM) or tariff escalation triggers sell-side sweep ($29.41). Neutral (±1%, $30.20–$30.80): Mixed data or no tariff news keeps KWEB near $30.00 (HVN). Why: Catalysts drive displacement (sweeps to OHLC/LVNs), setting up OTE entries, per AMT/ICT. Action: Set alerts for Retail Sales (April 15), monitor X for tariff updates. Video: “Retail Sales could push KWEB to $32 or drop it to $29—big week ahead.” Technical Setup Multi-Timeframe Analysis (Adjusted to April 11 Close, $30.52) Weekly Chart HVN (High Volume Node): Level: $30.00 (POC, near W-Open $29.59, D-Close $30.52). Role: Support, price consolidated March 24–April 11 ($29–$31). Stance: Bullish (price above HVN, defending $30.00). LVN (Low Volume Node): Level: $31.50 (near W-High $31.35, April 4). Role: Fast-move zone, price dropped post-$31.35 (April 4–8). Stance: Neutral (price below LVN, potential sweep target). EMA Trend: Status: 8-week ($31.50) < 13-week ($32.00) < 48-week ($33.50), downtrend but flattening. Stance: Neutral (price below EMAs, but $30.52 tests 8-week). RSI (14): Level: ~55 (neutral-bullish, up from 45 at $27.95, April 8). Stance: Bullish (>50, room to 70). MACD: Status: Above signal, nearing zero (bullish crossover April 10). Stance: Bullish (gaining momentum). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price at midline ($30.50), bands narrowing. Stance: Neutral (breakout pending). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($29.65, W-Low to W-High). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Williams %R: Level: ~-40 (neutral, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50, rising). ADR (Average Daily Range): Status: Expanding (~3%, $0.90/day). Stance: Bullish (volatility supports moves). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.20, April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: MSS: Bearish (lower highs from $38.401, March 17, but higher low $27.95, April 8, signals potential shift). Trend: Neutral (consolidation $29–$31, testing W-High $31.35). Summary: Neutral-bullish, price at HVN ($30.00) with LVN ($31.50) as sweep target. Indicators favor upside, but MSS needs confirmation. 1-Hour Chart Support/Resistance: Support: $29.41 (D-Low, April 11), aligns with W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($30.00). Resistance: $30.63 (D-High, April 11), near LVN ($31.50), W-High ($31.35). Stance: Bullish (price above support, testing resistance). RSI (14): Level: ~60 (bullish, rising from 50 at $29.41). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above signal, positive histogram. Stance: Bullish (momentum building). Bollinger Bands: Status: Price near upper band ($30.60). Stance: Bullish (breakout potential). Donchian Channels: Status: Above midline ($30.02). Stance: Bullish (trend strength). Williams %R: Level: ~-30 (bullish, not overbought). Stance: Bullish (>-50). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.30, intraday April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers dominate). ICT/SMC: Buy-Side Liquidity: Above $30.63 (D-High), $31.35 (W-High), LVN ($31.50). Retail stops cluster here. Sell-Side Liquidity: Below $29.41 (D-Low), $27.95 (W-Low/M-Low). OB: Bullish OB at $29.80–$30.00 (April 10 consolidation, demand zone, near HVN $30.00). FVG: Bullish FVG at $30.00–$30.20 (April 11 gap, unfilled, aligns with D-Open $30.12). OTE: Fib 61.8%–78.6% from $29.41 (low) to $30.63 (high) = $30.05–$30.15 (overlaps OB/FVG/HVN). Displacement: Potential impulsive move to $31.50 (LVN) or $29.00 (below D-Low) on Retail Sales or tariff news. Summary: Bullish bias, with OTE ($30.05–$30.15) as entry zone post-sweep, supported by OB/FVG/HVN. 10-Minute Chart Closing Move (April 11): Status: Rallied to $30.52, closed near high ($30.63), strong volume. Stance: Bullish (buyers pushed close). EMA Direction: Status: 8-EMA ($30.45) > 13-EMA ($30.40) > 48-EMA ($30.30), uptrend. Stance: Bullish (EMAs rising). RSI (14): Level: ~65 (bullish, cooling from 70). Stance: Bullish (>50, not overbought). MACD: Status: Above zero, bullish crossover. Stance: Bullish (momentum intact). VWAP: Status: Above VWAP (~$30.40, late April 11). Stance: Bullish (buyers control). ICT/SMC: Liquidity Sweep: Wick to $30.63 (8:50 AM, April 11) tested buy-side, no clear rejection yet. Retracement: Potential retrace to $30.05–$30.15 (OTE) if sweep completes (e.g., April 14, 8:00 AM). Entry Signal: Pin bar or engulfing at OTE (e.g., $30.10, 10-minute candle). Summary: Bullish, awaiting sweep above $30.63 or $31.35, retrace to OTE for entry. Options Data Analysis: GEX (Gamma Exposure): Status: Positive GEX at $31 strike (high call OI), neutral at $30. Impact: Dealers buy stock to hedge calls, supporting $31 pin or slight lift to $31.50. Explanation: Positive GEX stabilizes price near high OI strikes, aligning with LVN ($31.50) sweep. Stance: Neutral-bullish (pinning likely, breakout possible). DEX (Delta Exposure): Status: High call delta (+0.3, 89% call volume). Impact: Bullish pressure, as dealers hedge calls by buying KWEB. Explanation: Call-heavy delta fuels upside momentum, supporting buy-side sweep. Stance: Bullish. IV (Implied Volatility): Status: Moderate (~25%, vs. 20–35% norm for KWEB). Impact: Steady swings ($0.50–$1.00/day), good for ATM/OTM calls. Explanation: Moderate IV balances premium cost and volatility, ideal for OTE entries. Stance: Bullish (volatility supports options). OI (Open Interest): Status: Call-heavy (65% calls at $31, 20% at $32, 15% puts at $30). Impact: Momentum toward $31–$32, potential pin at $31 (high OI). Explanation: High call OI marks targets (W-High $31.35, LVN $31.50), puts at $30 guard HVN. Stance: Bullish (calls drive upside). Cem Karsan’s Application and Weekly Trading Breakdown: Gamma: High at $31 (pinning risk), low at $32 (breakout potential). Vanna: Rising IV (25% to 30% on Retail Sales) lifts calls, dealers buy KWEB, pushing to $31.50. Charm: Near OPEX (April 18), $31 calls hold delta if ITM, spiking volatility April 17–18. Volatility Skew: Call skew (higher IV for $32 vs. $30) favors upside breakouts. Weekly OI (Exp. April 18): 65% calls at $31, 20% at $32. Pinning likely at $31 unless Retail Sales sparks breakout to $32. Options Strategy: Trade: Buy $31 calls at OTE ($30.10, April 14, 8:50 AM), premium ~$0.50. Exit: $31.50 (W-High/LVN, premium ~$0.90), profit $0.40. Stop: Below OB ($29.80, premium ~$0.20), risk $0.30. R:R: 1.33:1 (adjust to 2:1 with partial exit). ICT/SMC Tie-In: Enter post-sweep ($31.35), retrace to OTE ($30.10), target $31.50. Vanna: Status: IV rise (25% to 30%) amplifies calls, dealers buy KWEB. Impact: Bullish lift to $31–$31.50, aligns with LVN sweep. Explanation: Vanna boosts delta near high OI, supporting OTE reversal. Charm: Status: OPEX (April 18) nears, $31 calls gain delta if KWEB hits $31. Impact: Volatility spikes April 17–18, favors quick OTE trades. Explanation: Charm accelerates delta, amplifying sweep-to-OTE moves. Timeframe Analysis: Weekly (Exp. April 18): OI: 65% calls ($31), 20% ($32), 15% puts ($30). IV: Moderate (25%), rising on catalysts. Stance: Bullish (calls dominate, breakout risk). Monthly (Exp. May 2): OI: Balanced (50% calls $32, 50% puts $29). IV: Stable (~24%). Stance: Neutral (consolidation likely). 3-Month (Exp. July 7): OI: Call skew ($33–$35, 60% calls). IV: Low (~22%). Stance: Bullish (long-term upside). Directional Bias: Synthesis: Positive GEX ($31 pin), high call DEX (+0.3), moderate IV (25%), call-heavy OI (65% at $31), vanna (IV lift), charm (OPEX volatility), and ICT/SMC (buy-side sweep to $31.35, OTE at $30.10) suggest a bullish trend for April 14, with potential retracement post-sweep. Why: Options data aligns with ICT/SMT (call OI = buy-side liquidity, OTE = dealer hedging zone), per AMT (LVN sweep, HVN reversal). Action: Focus on $31 calls, highlight pinning vs. breakout. Video: “KWEB’s $31 call wall could pin or pop—perfect for an OTE play.” Sympathy Plays Correlated Assets: MCHI (iShares MSCI China ETF): Tracks broader Chinese equities, rises ~2–3% if KWEB rallies (e.g., $31.50), due to shared holdings (Alibaba, Tencent). BABA (Alibaba ADR): KWEB’s top holding, moves +3–4% on KWEB’s sweep to $31.35, driven by e-commerce/AI overlap. Opposite Mover: GLD (SPDR Gold ETF): Risk-off asset, fades ~1–2% if KWEB rallies (risk-on), as investors shift from safe havens to tech. Why: Sympathy plays confirm sector momentum (Chinese tech), while GLD hedges tariff fears, per ICT/SMT sentiment. Action: Monitor MCHI/BABA for confirmation, GLD for divergence. Video: “If KWEB pops, MCHI and BABA follow—watch gold for the flip side.” Sector Positioning with RRG Sector: Technology – Emerging Markets (China Internet). RRG Position: Improving (vs. MCHI ETF). Rationale: KWEB’s April 11 rally (+2.97%) outpaces MCHI (+2.1%), with RSI (~55) and call OI signaling strength. Tariff fears weaken absolute gains, but relative momentum grows. Tie-In: Improving quadrant supports bullish MSS, OTE entries at HVN ($30.00). Why: RRG aligns with sentiment (call-heavy) and technicals (above HVN), per AMT value area. Action: Highlight Improving RRG for video: “KWEB’s gaining steam in China tech—prime for a sweep setup.” Targets Bullish: Target: +3.5% to $31.60. Levels: W-High ($31.35), LVN ($31.50), next resistance ($32.00). Rationale: Buy-side sweep to $31.35 (W-High), breakout to LVN on Retail Sales or tariff relief, per ICT/SMC. Bearish: Target: -3.2% to $29.55. Levels: D-Low ($29.41), below W-Open ($29.59), HVN ($29.50). Rationale: Sell-side sweep below $29.41 on weak Retail Sales or tariff escalation, retracing to HVN, per AMT. Why: Targets tie to OHLC (W-High, D-Low), HVNs/LVNs, and catalysts, ensuring ICT/SMC alignment (liquidity to OTE).
AMEX:KWEB
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's T (AT&T) Trading Guide 4/11/25T (AT&T Inc.) Sentiment • Sentiment is neutral with a bearish tilt. April 10 options activity shows put-heavy volume at $26 strikes, reflecting caution. RSI (14) at ~50 (estimated, flat trend at $26.40 close) suggests indecision. X posts highlight concerns over telecom debt loads and tariff risks on equipment imports, but some speculate on institutional accumulation below $26.50. A liquidity sweep below $26.33 could trigger a bullish reversal if buy-side liquidity is tapped. Catalyst: Potential sweep below $26.33 may spark short covering. Tariff Impact - Rating: Moderate. • Explanation: T relies on imported telecom equipment, facing cost pressures from tariffs on China (active as of April 11). No relief announced, so margins could tighten, capping upside. X posts suggest tariff fears weigh on sentiment, but domestic revenue focus limits fundamental damage. News/Catalysts • Driver: Flat telecom sector performance on April 10, with T holding steady amid mixed market signals. X posts cited stability but no clear catalyst. • Upcoming: CPI (April 11): High CPI could hurt T (-1.5%) due to rate hike fears; low CPI may lift it (+1%) as a yield play. • Retail Sales (April 15): Strong data supports T (+1%); weak data pressures (-1%) due to consumer spending risks. Technical Setup Weekly Chart: • HVN: $26.00 support (bullish). • LVN: $27.00 resistance (neutral). • EMA Trend: 8-week ≈ 13-week > 48-week (neutral). • RSI (14): ~50 (neutral). • MACD: Near signal line (neutral). • Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral). • Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral). • Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral). • ADR: Stable (neutral). • VWAP: At VWAP $26.40 (neutral). • ICT/SMC: No clear MSS; consolidation phase. One-Hour Chart: • Support/Resistance: Support at $26.33; resistance at $26.56. Stance: neutral. • RSI (14): ~50 (neutral). • MACD: Near zero (neutral). • Bollinger Bands: At midline (neutral). • Donchian Channels: At midline (neutral). • Williams %R: ~-50 (neutral). • VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral). • ICT/SMC: Sell-side liquidity below $26.33; OB at $26.40; FVG at $26.35–$26.45; OTE at $26.45; no displacement. 10-Minute Chart: • Closing Move: Flat into close. • EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs flat (neutral). • RSI (14): ~50 (neutral). • MACD: Near zero (neutral). • VWAP: At VWAP $26.50 (neutral). • ICT/SMC: Potential sweep below $26.33; OTE at $26.45; no clear entry signal yet. Options Data • GEX: Neutral, pinning at $26.50. Dealers hedge minimally. • DEX: Put delta bias (-0.15), bearish pressure. • IV: Low (~18%), limited swings. • OI: Put-heavy (55% puts at $26), capping upside. Cem Karsan’s Application: • Weekly Trading Breakdown: OI at $26 suggests pinning. Low gamma limits volatility; vanna neutral; charm favors puts near OPEX. • Strategy: Buy $26.50 calls at $26.45 (OTE), exit at $27, profit $0.30, risk $0.40. Ties to sweep below $26.33. • Vanna: Stable IV, no dealer-driven lift. • Charm: Puts gain delta near OPEX, pressuring $26. Timeframe Analysis: • Weekly (exp. April 18): Put OI at $26, low IV, bearish stance. • Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, neutral stance. • 3-Month (exp. July 18): Neutral outlook. • Directional Bias: Neutral, leaning bearish unless sweep triggers reversal. Sympathy Plays • Correlated Assets: VZ (+1%), CCI (+0.5%). • Opposite Mover: If T fades, risk-on SPOT rises (+1%). Sector Positioning with RRG - Sector: Communication Services – Telecom. • RRG Position: Lagging vs. XLC, reflecting weak momentum. Targets • Bullish: +2% to $27.00 (OB). • Bearish: -2% to $25.87 (FVG).
NYSE:T
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Quantum's KR Trading Guide 4/11/25 KR (Kroger Company) Sentiment • Analysis: Market sentiment for KR is neutral leaning bullish. Post-close options activity on April 10 shows balanced put/call volume, with slight call dominance at strikes near $69, suggesting cautious optimism. RSI (14) at the April 10 close (estimated ~60 based on recent uptrend to $67.96) indicates momentum without overbought conditions, supporting a potential continuation. Anonymized X chatter highlights speculation on grocery sector stability amid tariff uncertainties, with some noting KR’s domestic focus as a hedge against import risks. A potential liquidity sweep above recent highs ($68.76) could signal institutional buying, setting up a reversal to the upside. Catalyst: Watch for a sweep above $68.76 triggering bullish momentum, driven by retail investor interest on X. Tariff Impact - Rating: Minimal. • Explanation: KR’s exposure to tariffs is limited due to its primarily domestic supply chain and focus on U.S.-sourced goods. While imported specialty products could face cost pressures, these are a small fraction of revenue. No tariff relief or escalation was announced on April 10, so sentiment remains stable. Fundamentals are unaffected, but speculative X posts suggest tariff fears could cap upside unless clarity emerges. News/Catalysts • No specific company news on April 10, but sector strength in consumer staples drove modest gains, with KR benefiting from defensive positioning amid broader market volatility. X posts noted KR as a “safe play” in uncertain times. • Upcoming: CPI Data (Today, April 11): Stronger-than-expected CPI could pressure consumer staples (-1% move) as investors rotate to cyclicals; weaker CPI could boost KR (+2%) as a defensive name. • Retail Sales (April 15): Robust data may signal consumer strength, lifting KR (+1.5%); weak data could hurt (-1%) due to spending concerns. Technical Setup Weekly Chart: • HVN: $66.50 as support (bullish, price above). • LVN: $70.00 as resistance (neutral, price below). • EMA Trend: 8-week > 13-week > 48-week (bullish uptrend). • RSI (14): ~62 (bullish, above 50). • MACD: Above signal line (bullish). • Bollinger Bands: Near upper band (bullish). • Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish). • Williams %R: ~-20 (neutral, not overbought). • ADR: Expanding (bullish, volatility rising). • VWAP: Above weekly VWAP at $67.00 (bullish). • ICT/SMC: Higher highs/lows confirm bullish Market Structure Shift (MSS). One-Hour Chart: • Support/Resistance: Support at $67.50 (weekly HVN confluence); resistance at $68.76 (daily high). Stance: bullish above support. • RSI (14): ~65 (bullish). • MACD: Above signal (bullish). • Bollinger Bands: At upper band (neutral, potential pullback). • Donchian Channels: Above midline (bullish). • Williams %R: ~-15 (neutral). • VWAP: Above hourly VWAP at $68.20 (bullish). • ICT/SMC: Buy-side liquidity above $68.76; Order Block (OB) at $67.50 demand zone; FVG at $68.00–$68.10; OTE (Fib 61.8%) at $68.30; displacement seen in early April 11 rally. 10-Minute Chart: • Closing Move: Strong rally into April 10 close, holding above $67.96. • EMA Direction: 8/13/48 EMAs rising (bullish). • RSI (14): ~60 (neutral). • MACD: Above zero (bullish). • VWAP: Above VWAP at $68.30 (bullish). • ICT/SMC: Liquidity sweep above $68.40 in pre-market; retracement to OTE at $68.30; pin bar forming as entry signal. Options Data • GEX: Neutral, slight bullish pinning at $68. Dealers may buy stock to hedge, supporting price at $68–$69. Explanation: Gamma Exposure balances calls/puts, stabilizing price near strikes. • DEX: Moderate call delta bias (+0.25), indicating bullish pressure. Explanation: Net call buying drives directional momentum. • IV: Moderate (~22%, near norm), suggesting steady swings. Explanation: Implied Volatility supports consistent options pricing. • OI: Call-heavy (60% calls at $69 strike), favoring upside momentum. Explanation: Open Interest at $69 signals potential breakout target. Cem Karsan’s Application: • Weekly Trading Breakdown: High call OI at $69 (exp. April 18) suggests pinning or breakout potential. Gamma supports stability at $68; vanna indicates dealers buy on IV spikes to 23%, lifting price. Charm accelerates delta near OPEX, favoring $69 calls if in-the-money. • Strategy: Buy $69 calls at $68.30 (OTE), exit at $69.50, profit $0.50, risk $0.40. Ties to liquidity sweep above $68.76, targeting $69 OB. • Vanna: Rising IV to 23% could push dealers to buy, lifting KR to $69 (bullish). • Charm: Near OPEX, $69 calls hold delta if ITM, boosting volatility. Timeframe Analysis: • Weekly (exp. April 18): 60% call OI at $69, moderate IV, bullish stance. • Monthly (exp. May 16): Balanced OI, stable IV, neutral stance. • 3-Month (exp. July 18): Slight call skew, low IV, bullish outlook. • Directional Bias: Bullish, driven by call OI, positive GEX, and OTE setup at $68.30. Sympathy Plays • Correlated Assets: WMT (+2% if KR rallies), COST (+1.5%). • Opposite Mover: If KR rallies (defensive), risk-on names like SHOP fade (-1%). Sector Positioning with RRG • Sector: Consumer Staples – Food Retail. • RRG Position: Improving vs. XLP ETF, aligning with bullish sentiment and technicals. Targets • Bullish: +3% to $70.50 (next liquidity zone, OB at $70). • Bearish: -2% to $66.60 (FVG at $66.50).
NYSE:KR
by QuantumEdgeAnalytics
Berkshire Hathaway | No More Apple Pie & Bank Bread!No More Apple Pie and Bank Bread | Buffett’s Recipe for Market Caution Berkshire Hathaway has recently disclosed its earnings amid fluctuating around a $1 trillion valuation. A notable update is its continued reduction of stakes in overvalued assets, including a 20% decrease in holdings of Apple and Bank of America, boosting its cash reserves to $325 billion Although Warren Buffett himself isn't favoring share buybacks at present, Berkshire Hathaway stands as a compelling investment option Why Berkshire Hathaway's $325 Billion Cash Pile Signals Market Caution The company's net earnings remain subject to significant fluctuations due to rules requiring valuation changes of investment holdings. However, there was a slight decline in operating earnings, mainly driven by lower insurance underwriting income. Despite this, that segment is historically volatile, and year over year aka YoY, the company has maintained strong performance. Yea2date aka YTD, operating earnings have risen over 10%, totaling just under $33 billion compared to just below $29 billion last year. This points to an annualized earnings estimate of approximately $44 billion, implying a price2earnings aka P/E ratio of about 22, without factoring in over $320 billion in cash and significant investment holdings. Excluding cash and investments, the adjusted P/E ratio is closer to single digits. Share buybacks have paused, reflected in a ~1% decrease in the outstanding shares YoY, signaling Berkshire's assessment of current market valuations. Segment Highlights The various business units within Berkshire Hathaway showcase its robust asset base and earning capacity. Insurance underwriting income saw a sharp YoY drop, but other business areas performed strongly. Income from insurance investments remained solid, and BNSF, its railroad subsidiary, also showed strong results despite a double digit YoY decline. Berkshire Hathaway Energy continues its growth, cementing its position in the utility sector with significant renewable energy ventures. For context, NextEra Energy (NEE), with a market capitalization of $160 billion, posted quarterly earnings around 10% higher. Berkshire's other controlled and non-controlled businesses contribute over $13 billion annually, underpinning its diversification and consistent earnings performance. This strength across segments underscores its formidable financial health. Market Context Currently, market valuations are elevated by historical standards. Excluding periods of earnings dips, market enthusiasm is exceptionally high, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio nearing 30x, approaching levels last seen in 1999. Buffett and Berkshire appear to view a 3% yield from such a P/E as unattractive, especially when bonds offer higher returns. The 2008 Playbook Berkshire's track record of effectively utilizing its cash reserves is notable. Excluding its insurance float, the company still holds $150 billion in cash. During the 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire leveraged its liquidity for strategic investments in companies like General Electric, Swiss Re, Dow Chemical, and Bank of America, as well as finalizing the full acquisition of BNSF in 2010. This proactive use of capital proved advantageous. The current strategic sale of assets suggests Berkshire is preparing for potential market downturns. Given high S&P 500 valuations, reallocating part of an S&P 500 position into Berkshire Hathaway could be wise, ensuring exposure to a cash-rich portfolio capable of seizing future opportunities. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s earnings are valued lower than the broader market, potentially minimizing major downturn risks. Investment Risks A key risk is that timing the market is inherently challenging, with the adage "time in the market beats timing the market" serving as a caution. If Berkshire's market outlook is incorrect, its $300+ billion in cash could underperform while broader markets remain strong, which would diminish its appeal as an investment. Final Thoughts Berkshire Hathaway has taken the bold step of liquidating some of its most significant and priciest holdings, opting to incur capital gains taxes to increase liquidity. This move has bolstered its cash position to $325 billion, $150 billion above its float level. Meanwhile, its strong operational businesses continue generating healthy cash flow. Drawing on its successful strategies during the 2008 crisis, Berkshire appears to be positioning itself for another downturn amid current high market valuations. We advise investors to consider shifting part of their S&P 500 exposure into Berkshire Hathaway for enhanced diversification and potential benefits in a market correction, long story short Berkshire Hathaway remains a robust investment opportunity but wont make millionaire! What do you think moonypto fam?
NYSE:BRK.A
by moonypto
Guess?, Inc. Reports Fiscal Year 2025 Fourth Quarter ResultsGuess?, Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:GES ) a company that designs, markets, distributes, and licenses lifestyle collections of apparel and accessories for men, women, and children- operating through five segments: Americas Retail, Americas Wholesale, Europe, Asia, and Licensing, reports fiscal year 2025 fourth quarter results. Reports Highlights Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results: Revenues Increased to $932 Million, Up 5% in U.S. Dollars and 9% in Constant Currency Delivered Operating Margin of 11.1%; Adjusted Operating Margin of 11.4% GAAP EPS of $1.16 and Adjusted EPS of $1.48. Full Fiscal Year 2025 Results: Revenues Increased to $3.0 Billion, Up 8% in U.S. Dollars and 10% in Constant Currency Delivered Operating Margin of 5.8%; Adjusted Operating Margin of 6.0% GAAP EPS of $0.77 and Adjusted EPS of $1.96 Full Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook: Expects Revenue Increase between 3.9% and 6.2% in U.S. Dollars Expects GAAP and Adjusted Operating Margins between 4.3% and 5.2% and 4.5% and 5.4%, Respectively Expects GAAP EPS between $1.03 and $1.37 and Adjusted EPS between $1.32 and $1.76 Plans to Execute Business and Portfolio Optimization Expected to Unlock Approximately $30 Million in Operating Profit in Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Performance In 2024, Guess?'s revenue was $3.00 billion, an increase of 7.88% compared to the previous year's $2.78 billion. Earnings were $60.42 million, a decrease of -69.15%. Analyst Forecast According to 5 analysts, the average rating for GES stock is "Strong Buy." The 12-month stock price forecast is $21.6, which is an increase of 115.14% from the latest price. As of the time of writing, NYSE:GES shares closed Thursday's session down 11.78% extending the loss to Friday's premarket trading down by 2.38%. With a weaker RSI of 38, should trades open, NYSE:GES shares might break the 1-month low pivot and dip to the $7 support point. About $2.85 trillion was wiped out from the US stock market yesterday.
NYSE:GESShort
by DEXWireNews
IAG Airlines Group what next? $261 Reached & Breached! $172?🤔 IAG Airlines Group what next? ℹ️ $261 Reached & Breached! Will the $261 be regained and start to offer some support or is $172 NEXT?❓️❔️❓️ 🌍 To be completely transparent I have no horse in this race at the moment BUT I really would like a serious flush to try and accumulate a long-term POSITION. 🟢SeekingPips🟢 is not interested at current price at all unless we start to see some SERIOUS VOLUME START TO COME IN TO PLAY
LSE:IAG
by seekingpips
Snow White's very low ratings - Bullish Disney stock ?The SnowWhite IMDB rating can't get any worse - could the same be said of Disney stock? Price is the ultimate proof but buying the shares of a well established company when sentiment is at a low point can be a fruitful endevour. The poor box office showing + very weak ratings for Snow White - maybe a contrarian buy signal ? A) The stock is attempting a long term double bottom via is 2020 + 2023 lows B) A breakout over the downtrend line (orange) could confirm a bullish trend change Bottom of the ratings ➡️ Bottom in the stock? NYSE:DIS
NYSE:DISLong
by jasperlawler