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Streaming Wars | Who’s Winning, Losing, and Sharing Passwords ?Netflix Is Laughing, Cable Is Crying, and Amazon Is Sneaking Up Highlights for Today - Trends and Market Share - Disney: Streaming Profits on the Rise - Comcast: Cable Restructuring Underway - Warner Bros : Box Office Challenges - Paramount: Streaming Growth Amidst Challenges In the Battle for Loyalty, One Fact Stands Out: Netflix vs the Rest 1. Trends and Market Share Platforms like YouTube Premium, Amazon Prime, and Apple TV+ do not report quarterly numbers. Additionally, Disney+ Hotstar is excluded due to its planned merger with Reliance in 2025. Streaming continues to replace traditional linear TV, benefiting all players. Nielsen reports streaming comprised 41% of US TV time in September 2024, a 3.5-point increase year-over-year, primarily at Cable’s expense. Key Trends to Watch -Password-Sharing Crackdown: Following Netflix’s success, Disney introduced paid sharing in the US in late September, with effects expected to emerge in Q4. Max is also gearing up for this initiative. -Amazon Prime’s Growing Presence:CEO Andy Jassy revealed that Prime Video attracts over 200 million global viewers monthly. Combining exclusive content, live sports, and e-commerce integration, Amazon’s ecosystem presents a credible challenge to Netflix. -YouTube’s Dominance in Living Rooms: YouTube accounts for over 25% of US streaming TV time (excluding YouTube TV) and continues to grow. Alphabet disclosed that YouTube’s ads and subscriptions brought in $50 billion in revenue over the last 12 months, surpassing Netflix’s $38 billion. -Subscriber Trends: Tentpole events, like the Olympics for Peacock or hit series like House of the Dragon for Max, drove sign-ups. However, retention remains a challenge for all but Netflix. 2. Disney: Streaming Profits Rise Disney’s fiscal year ends in September, with Q3 FY24 covering the June quarter. -Streaming Profits:Disney’s direct2consumer (DTC) segment, which includes Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+, posted its second consecutive profitable quarter, generating $321 million in operating income. Core Disney+ subscribers rose by 4.4 million, reaching 123 million, driven by ad-supported tiers. -Box Office Wins: Hits like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine powered $316 million in studio profits. Disney became the first studio to surpass $4 billion in global box office revenue in 2024. - Challenges in Parks: Parks and Experiences revenue dropped 6% to $1.7 billion, impacted by hurricanes, rising costs, and competition from the Paris Olympics. Domestic attendance held steady, while international parks struggled. - Linear TV Decline: Revenue fell 6%, with profits plunging 38% to $498 million as cord-cutting and reduced ad sales weighed heavily. Disney plans to integrate streaming and linear TV rather than divest assets. - Optimistic Outlook: Disney expects earnings growth in FY25 (high single digits) and double digits in FY26 and FY27. Blockbusters like Moana2 and Mufasa:The Lion King are anticipated to maintain momentum. Takeaway: Disney’s Q4 highlighted strides in its streaming turnaround, buoyed by box office wins. However, the decline in linear TV underscores the challenges of transitioning in a shifting media landscape. Strong content and a focus on profitability position Disney for success under Bob Iger’s leadership. 3.Comcast: Cable Restructuring -Olympics Drive Growth:The Paris Olympics boosted NBCUniversal’s revenue by 37%, generating $1.2 billion in advertising and adding 3 million Peacock subscribers, which now total 36 million. -Streaming Expansion: Peacock’s revenue rose 82% year-over-year to $1.5 billion, with losses narrowing to $436 million from $565 million last year. -Cable Struggles: Cord-cutting led to a loss of 365,000 cable TV subscribers, with video segment revenue down 6.2%. Comcast is exploring a spinoff of cable networks like Bravo and CNBC to prioritize growth areas. -Theme Parks Slow: Theme park revenue dipped 5% to $2.3 billion as domestic attendance normalized post-COVID. -Broadband Trends:Despite losing 87,000 broadband customers, revenue increased 3%, with higher average revenue per user. Takeaway:Comcast’s Q3 reflected both opportunities and challenges. While the Olympics showcased its media strength, declines in cable TV and theme parks persist. Streamlining through a cable spinoff could sharpen its focus, but sustaining growth in Peacock and broadband remains critical. 4.Warner Bruh : Box Office Challenges -Streaming Growth:Max gained 7.2 million subscribers, reaching 110.5 million globally, supported by international expansion and hits like *House of the Dragon*. Streaming revenue rose 9%, marking Warner’s first profit since 2022. -Box Office Struggles:Studio revenue declined 17%, with theatrical revenue falling 40% due to a weaker film slate (*Beetlejuice Beetlejuice* and *Twisters* compared to last year’s *Barbie*). Video game revenue dropped 31%. -Mixed Network Results:Network revenue grew 3% from the Olympics and *Shark Week*, but advertising revenue fell 13%. The $9.1 billion NBA impairment from Q2 continues to loom. -Debt and Cash Flow Issues:** Free cash flow dropped 69% to $632 million, with $41 billion in debt. Warner renewed its Charter Communications deal to bolster stability. -CEO’s Confidence:David Zaslav emphasized Max’s momentum, projecting $1 billion in streaming profits by 2025 and hinting at password-sharing monetization. Takeaway:Warner’s Q3 highlighted streaming success but underscored its dependence on Max as traditional film and TV segments falter. Balancing debt, declining cash flow, and expanding streaming profitability will be key to its stability. 5.Paramount: Streaming Growth -Streaming Success:Paramount+ gained 3.5 million subscribers, reaching 72 million, thanks to sports like the NFL and UEFA and shows like *Tulsa King*. The streaming unit achieved a $49 million operating income, its second consecutive profitable quarter. -TV and Film Challenges:TV revenue fell 6% due to lower ad sales and declining cable subscribers. The film division saw revenue plummet 34%, with theatrical revenue dropping 71%. -Merger Progress:Paramount’s merger with Skydance Media is on track for early 2025, following the exploration of 12 potential bidders. -Cost-Cutting:Paramount has completed 90% of its $500 million cost reduction initiative, resulting in layoffs and asset write-downs. -Strategic Shift:Paramount is seeking a streaming joint-venture partner to better compete with Netflix and Disney while managing cable TV’s decline. Takeaway: Paramount’s streaming gains are encouraging, but traditional TV and film struggles persist. The Skydance merger offers a potential transformation, though stabilizing legacy businesses remains a significant hurdle.
NASDAQ:CMCSAEducation
by moonypto
15
WAAREE ENERGIES - Bullish Momentum in ActionTrade Overview: The bullish setup is unfolding well with TP1 already achieved at 2955.75. Price action is showing strong signs of continuation toward the remaining targets. Key Levels: Entry: 2881.85 Stop Loss (SL): 2822.05 Take Profit Targets: TP2: 3075.35 TP3: 3194.90 TP4: 3268.80 Technical Insight: The price is trending above the 15-minute moving averages, with a GREEN signal from the Risological Indicator, confirming bullish intent. The breakout beyond TP1 suggests sustained upward pressure. Traders should watch for any resistance near TP2. Strategy Tip: Trail stop loss to lock in profits as the price advances. A pullback toward the entry zone could offer an additional opportunity to strengthen long positions. Stay tuned for further target hits as Waaree Energies powers through!
NSE:WAAREEENERLong
by ProfitsNinja
POLICYBAZAAR (POLICYBZR) Trade UpdateTrade Overview: A strong bullish momentum is evident, with TP1 already achieved at 1709.20. The remaining targets are well within reach, given the current trend. Key Levels: Entry: 1677.05 Stop Loss (SL): 1651.05 Take Profit Targets: TP2: 1761.20 TP3: 1813.20 TP4: 1845.30 Technical Insight: The price is holding above the critical support levels, with the GREEN trend line from the Risological Indicator signaling continued upward movement. Traders are advised to trail the stop loss to lock in profits as the trade progresses. Keep monitoring for trend continuity!
NSE:POLICYBZRLong
by ProfitsNinja
JIOFIN: Intraday and Swing Trading Opportunities Timeframe: 15-Minute for Intraday & Multi-Day for Swing Traders. Intraday Outlook: For aggressive traders, the Risological Indicator signals a confirmed bullish move with GREEN lines. If the GREEN indicator flips to RED, it’s time to book profits and exit the trade. Swing Trade Outlook: Using the Risological Swing Trader, TP (Take Profit) targets are clearly marked: TP1: 319.85 TP2: 333.35 TP3: 346.85 TP4: 355.20 Entry: 311.50 Stop Loss (SL): 304.75 This setup highlights the versatility of the Risological Indicator for both quick intraday decisions and strategic swing trades!
NSE:JIOFINLong
by ProfitsNinja
TRENT: Short Trade ThrivesThe 4-hour chart of TRENT showcases a well-executed short trade setup using the Risological swing trader . With TP1 and TP2 targets already hit, the momentum hints at further downside movement towards TP3 and TP4. Trade Highlights: Entry Price: ₹7605.35 Stop Loss: ₹7975.20 Targets: TP1: ₹7148.25 ✅ TP2: ₹6408.65 ✅ TP3: ₹5669.00 (potential) 🔄 TP4: ₹5211.90 (final target) 🔄 Technical Breakdown: Risological trend line: A steeply falling Risological red trend line validates a persistent bearish trend. Candlestick Formation: Consistent lower highs signal sustained seller dominance. Volume Dynamics: Elevated volumes on red candles affirm selling pressure. Strategic Recommendations: Current Traders: Trail stop loss to secure profits and ride the trend toward TP3 and TP4. Potential Entries: Watch for minor pullbacks toward TP2 for fresh short positions. TRENT’s bearish momentum is far from over. Will TP3 and TP4 seal the deal? Stay tuned! 📉
NSE:TRENTShort
by ProfitsNinja
SUZLON: 27% Gains in 42 Days!SUZLON ENERGY Stock - Short Trade Trade Summary: The 4-hour chart of Suzlon Energy showcases a textbook short trade setup, with Targets 1, 2, and 3 already achieved using the Risological swing trading indicator. This trade has delivered a remarkable 27% profit in just 42 days since the entry. Target 4 is now firmly in sight, with strong bearish momentum supporting the trend. Trade Highlights: Entry Price: ₹76.90 Stop Loss: ₹81.47 (strategic risk placement) Profit Targets : TP1: ₹71.26 ✅ TP2: ₹62.12 ✅ TP3: ₹52.98 ✅ TP4: ₹47.33 (nearing completion) Analysis: Bearish Momentum: The price remains under the influence of a downsloping Risological Swing Trader indicator , confirming sustained selling pressure. Steady Decline: The stock has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows, with the red EMA line reinforcing the downtrend. Next Steps: For those already in the trade, tighten trailing stops to safeguard profits while giving the trade room to hit TP4. For new entrants, consider waiting for a retracement before entering to manage risk effectively. Patience is key—TP4 is well within reach! 🧘‍♂️📉
NSE:SUZLONShort
by ProfitsNinja
Nuvama wealth Management looking upwards Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. is a stock broking company, which engages in conducting trading and broking activities for institutional as well as retail clients. It operates through the following segments: Capital Markets, Wealth Management, and Holding Company Activities. The Capital Markets segment includes institutional broking business, merchant banking business, and advisory. The Wealth Management segment distributes financial products and investment advisory. Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. CMP is 6727.60. The Negative aspects of the company are high Valuation (P.E. = 28.8), Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash and Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, MFs increased their shareholding last quarter, Good quarterly growth in the recent results, Strong Annual EPS Growth and Increasing Revenue every Quarter for the past 8 Quarters. Entry can be taken after closing above 6742 Targets in the stock will be 6886 and 7021. The long-term target in the stock will be 7249 and 7484. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 5446. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NUVAMALong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Redington looking red hot. Redington Ltd. provision of machinery, equipment and supplies. It includes computers, computer peripheral equipment, software, electronic, and telecommunications equipment and parts. It operates through the India, and Overseas segments. Redington Ltd. CMP is 193.37. The Negative aspects of the company are MFs decreased their shareholding last quarter. The positive aspects of the company are Attractive Valuation (P.E. = 12.5), Company with Low Debt, Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, Dividend yield greater than sector dividend yield, High Volume, High Gain and Stocks Outperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter. Entry can be taken after closing above 199 Targets in the stock will be 204, 212 and 220. The long-term target in the stock will be 225 and 236. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 180 or 169. depending upon your risk taking ability. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:REDINGTONLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
The Big Exit | How One Auditor Walked Away from Super MicroThe Governance Shortfall: Inside Super Micro’s Auditor Crisis On Wednesday, shares of the high performance server and storage solutions provider faced renewed selling pressure after the unexpected resignation of its audit firm, Ernst & Young LLP(EY) In July 2024, EY alerted the Audit Committee about several concerns related to governance, transparency, internal controls, and the risk of delayed filing of the company's annual report. In response, the Board formed an independent Special Committee to investigate these matters, engaging Cooley LLP and forensic accounting firm Secretariat Advisors, LLC. Although EY and the Board received preliminary updates on the investigation, the final conclusions have not yet been shared. The ongoing review raised doubts for EY regarding the company’s adherence to the COSO Framework principles for internal controls. EY questioned the company’s commitment to integrity, the independence of the Audit Committee, and the reliability of management’s and the Audit Committee's representations. In its resignation letter, EY expressed its inability to rely on these representations or be associated with the company's financial statements, citing legal and professional obligations. Despite the developments, Super Micro has indicated no expected changes to previously issued financial statements. The company plans to provide a Q1/FY2025 business update next week. However, it’s surprising that management didn’t include preliminary Q1 results in Wednesday's announcement, which could have mitigated the negative impact on its stock. Super Micro is nearing a Nasdaq deadline to either regain compliance with listing requirements or submit a plan. With the auditor’s unexpected departure, it may be difficult for the company to present a viable plan, raising the risk of a near-term delisting. This resignation comes at a critical time for Super Micro, as its rapid growth requires substantial working capital. Based on management’s projections, FY2025 cash needs could reach up to $3 billion, likely necessitating additional capital early next year. However, raising funds without audited financials could be challenging, potentially forcing Super Micro to relinquish market share to competitors like Dell Technologies or Hewlett Packard Enterprise. In my view, EY’s departure increases the likelihood of a prolonged accounting review, which could hinder Super Micro’s ability to secure funding for anticipated growth. Therefore, it is crucial for the company to report strong preliminary Q1/FY2025 results and present a positive outlook next week. Super Micro Computer’s troubles continue, as its auditor resigned due to concerns over management’s integrity and the Audit Committee's independence. This situation makes it unlikely for the company to achieve compliance with Nasdaq requirements soon, raising the potential for a near-term delisting. With a need to re-enter the capital markets in early 2025, audited financials remain essential. A failure to secure funding could result in significant market share loss to major competitors like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Given these challenges, the increased risk of prolonged financial review, and a likely near-term delisting, I am reaffirming my "Sell" rating on Super Micro Computer's common shares.
NASDAQ:SMCIShort
by moonypto
2
Reliance near major support zone. Reliance is a large cap company with a market cap of Rs.17,15,224 Crores. CMP of the stock is Rs.1268 with and EPS of Rs.50.2. PE of the company is 25.2. Ten year PE is 21.2. PE in July was 30.9 which has corrected to 25.2 now. Reliance Industries is a fundamentally strong stock. The company covers following sectors. 1) Energy a) Oil and Gas Exploration & Production b) Refining & Marketing c) New Energy & New Materials (Production of Green energy 2) Petrochemicals a) Textiles b) Polymers c) Polyesters d) Fibre Intermediates e) Aromatics f) Elastomers g) Reliance Composites Solutions 3) Retail a) JioMart b) Smart Bazaar, c) Reliance Digital d) Just Dial 4) Jio a) Digital Services b) Telecom 5) Media and Entertainment a) Jio Cinema b) via com18 c) Network 18 d) Jio Studios Thus Reliance is a company with vivid portals of revenue generation and investing in one company called Reliance empowers you into investment in spectrum of companies with multiple revenue sources. Investing in Reliance is like investing in Mutual fund. The Weekly Chart (which we use for gaining long term perspective of a company) of Reliance indicates it is near a support zone. Immediate support being at 1254. 200 Weeks EMA of the stock or the Father line support is at 1176. This indicates that the stock might be near the bottom if it has not formed the bottom already. On the upper side when Reliance starts to move upwards the resistances will be at 1331 and 1396. 1396 being major Mother line resistance of 50 Weeks EMA. Above 1396 weekly closing Reliance will be very bullish again and can regain the levels of 1532 and 1600+ levels in 6 to 12 month. Channel top seems to be in the range of 1753 to 1980 range depending on the future results and future performances of various revenue streams. Bollinger band suggests a bounce in short to medium term in the stock. Looking at the index and weightage of Reliance in the index it will be imperative for Reliance to bounce for index to bounce in a most probable scenario. The waiting period can be 6 to 12 months as the stock is not very strong on technicals. however it is not below 200 Weeks EMA either. Overall Reliance is a large cap stock that has created immense wealth over the years and I do not see any reason currently why it can continue to perform and create wealth for years to come. Outlook for the company in the year 2025 specially 3rd Quarter onwards looks very upbeat once the Green Energy production and revenue strats to trickle in. There is also a possibility of listing of JIO Digital and Telecom as a separate company in they year 2025. Listing of Reliance Retail as a company will be next. (Post Jio telecom listing). The potential of value unlocking in the stock remains immense in our opinion. To know more about Techno-Funda investing, Mother Father and small child theory, Parallel channel you can read my book The Happy Candles way to Wealth creation available on Amazon in paperback or Kindle version. My book is now also available on Google Play books. Do read it. Have a look at the reviews which say that the book is a masterpiece and can be considered as a hand book for investing in equities. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. There is also chance of bias in our opinion. I, my family or my clients may have a long position in the stock. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:RELIANCE
by Happy_Candles_Investment
ALB & GPN's Reversal Breakout Could Spark Significant GainsAlbemarle Corporation NYSE:ALB ● On the monthly chart, the stock is bouncing back from a long-standing trendline support that has held firm over the years. ● The daily chart reveals the emergence of an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern following a significant decline. ● With a recent breakout, the stock appears poised for a potential trend reversal. ● Traders should keep a close eye on this stock for potential buying opportunities. Global Payments NYSE:GPN ● The stock has formed a Double Bottom pattern after a brief period of consolidation. ● Recently, the price broke out from this formation and has been maintaining its position above the breakout point. ● The price movement suggests a short-term buying opportunity, as the resistance level is quite distant from the current price.
NYSE:ALBLong
by NaranjCapital
1
Gravita looks Great for a long run. Gravita India Ltd. engages in the manufacture of lead metals by the process of smelting and recycling followed by refining, alloying and manufacture of lead oxide. The firm also trades lead scrap, ore, concentrates, battery scrap and allied Lead products globally. It operates through the following segments: Lead, Aluminium, Turn Key Solution, and Others. Gravita India Ltd. CMP is 2243.25. The positive aspects of the company are Company with Zero Promoter Pledge, MFs increased their shareholding last quarter, FII / FPI or Institutions increasing their shareholding, Increasing Revenue every quarter for the past 3 quarters and Growth in Net Profit with increasing Profit Margin. The Negative aspects of the company are high Valuation (P.E. = 57.7), Stocks Underperforming their Industry Price Change in the Quarter, Declining Net Cash Flow : Companies not able to generate net cash and Increasing Trend in Non-Core Income. Entry can be taken after closing above 2337 Targets in the stock will be 2413 and 2593. The long-term target in the stock will be 2688. Stop loss in the stock should be maintained at Closing below 1963 or 1770 depending on your risk taking ability. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:GRAVITALong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Meta's Q3 Financial Results | Growth and the Future of AI & AR Meta's Q3 Earnings: AI Investments Shape the Future of Engagement and Monetization Last week, Meta shared its Q3 earnings, revealing a familiar trend: while the results were strong, rising AI investments cast a shadow. With over 3.2 billion daily users across Meta’s apps, the company alongside Google and YouTube is in a prime position to bring AI into the mainstream. However, this shift could potentially disrupt the creator economy as we know it So, how will this affect the future of Meta’s apps? Did you know META is 222% up since our first analysis ? Let’s break down the quarter and explore the latest updates Today’s Highlights - Overview of Meta Q3 FY24 - Recent business highlights - Key quotes from the earnings call - The potential decline of the creator economy 1. Meta Q3 FY24 Overview Meta operates within two main segments FoA: Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp) RL: Reality Labs (virtual reality hardware and software) Daily Active People in FoA grew by 5% year over year, reaching 3.29 billion. However, user growth has slowed, with Meta adding 20 million daily users in Q3 2024 down from 50 million earlier in 2024. Meta’s reach now extends to over half of the global population aged 15 to 80, meaning future growth will hinge more on engagement and ad efficiency than adding new users. Key Insights from Zuckerberg: -Facebook: Positive engagement trends among Gen Z in the U.S. -Instagram: Sustains “strong” growth globally. -WhatsApp: Now surpasses 2 billion calls daily. -Meta AI: 500 million monthly active users. -Threads: 275 million monthly active users, up from 200 million in Q2, with notable growth in regions like the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan (currently not monetized and unlikely to drive significant revenue by 2025). Advertising Performance: - Ad impressions grew 7% year-over-year (compared to 10% in Q2). - Average ad price increased by 11% year-over-year (10% in Q2). - Average revenue per user grew by 12% year-over-year, reaching $12.29 (compared to Snap at $3.10 and Reddit at $3.58). - Despite some critics suggesting potential inflation due to bot activity, ARPU growth points to real ad value; fake users can’t generate revenue. Financials - Revenue rose 19% year-over-year to $40.6 billion. - FoA saw a 19% increase, reaching $40.3 billion. - RL grew by 29% to $0.3 billion. - Gross margin was 82% (-1pp Y/Y, +1pp Q/Q). - Operating margin stood at 43% (+2pp Y/Y, +5pp Q/Q). - FoA operating profit was $21.8 billion (54% margin, +2pp Y/Y). - RL reported an operating loss of $4.4 billion (down slightly from $4.5 billion in Q2). - EPS rose by 37% year-over-year to $6.03. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow was $24.7 billion (61% margin, +1pp Y/Y). - Free cash flow was $15.5 billion (38% margin, -2pp Y/Y). Balance Sheet - Cash and marketable securities totaled $71 billion - Long-term debt was $29 billion Guidance: - Q4 FY24 revenue is forecasted at $46.5 billion in the mid-range - FY24 expenses estimated at $96-$98 billion (previously $96-$99 billion) - FY24 Capex is expected to be $38-40 billion (previously $37-$40 billion) Summary Analysis Revenue growth was 20% in constant currency (compared to 23% in Q2), with ad revenue growth driven by increased ad prices. Strong demand for ads continued, largely due to higher ad performance, especially in online commerce, healthcare, and entertainment. Geographically, North America and Europe led growth at 21%, while Asia slowed from 28% to 15%. Reality Labs’ revenue rose 29%, mainly from hardware sales, though the division continues to post significant losses. As shown in the visuals, FoA operating profit reached an all-time high, while RL’s losses remain around $4 billion quarterly. Headcount increased by 9% year-over-year to 72,404, signaling a return to hiring, particularly in priority areas such as monetization, infrastructure, Reality Labs, and generative AI. Stock buybacks amounted to nearly $9 billion in Q3, up from $6 billion in Q2, though lower than the $15 billion in Q1. Management’s confidence in Meta’s stock remains strong, with an additional $1.3 billion paid in dividends. Capital expenditures climbed by 36% to $9.2 billion compared to $8.5 billion in Q2, with guidance staying on track. Management anticipates “significant acceleration in infrastructure expenses” for 2025, which will affect both the cost of revenue and R&D expenses. Despite heavy AI spending, Meta remains highly profitable, generating nearly $52 billion in free cash flow over the past 12 months—just shy of Alphabet’s $56 billion over the same period. Q4 FY24 revenue guidance points to deceleration, with mid-range growth forecasted at 16%. Let’s examine Meta’s investments and market position further. 2. Recent Business Highlights Meta Orion Meta's Orion AR glasses mark an ambitious step towards a future beyond smartphones, showcasing the potential of augmented reality (AR): -Prototype Status: Orion is a high-tech AR prototype, equipped with advanced features, but high production costs keep it out of reach for consumers. -Advanced AR Display: Using Micro LED projectors and silicon carbide lenses, Orion offers a broad field of view with sharper visuals than most current AR devices. -Interactive AI Integration: With Meta's generative AI, Orion enables users to interact with virtual elements, identify real-world objects, and create immediate solutions, such as recipes. -Complex Hardware: Orion relies on a neural wristband for control and a wireless compute puck, creating a multi-part system. -High Cost & Limited Production: With a price tag estimated at $10,000, Orion isn’t ready for mass production. Meta has produced around 1,000 units for demonstrations and internal testing. - Future Vision: Meta aims to release a consumer-friendly AR device within a few years, working toward a slimmer, more affordable model that could rival smartphone prices. Orion reflects Meta's goal to lead the next wave of computing, though significant technological and cost hurdles remain. Timing and Competitive Landscape**: Zuckerberg’s reveal of Orion may aim to justify Reality Labs' annual $16-20 billion operating loss to shareholders and gather feedback. Meanwhile, Apple has initiated its “Atlas” project to explore the smart glasses market, indicating potential plans to shift focus from the high-end $3,500 Vision Pro VR headset. How AI Is Already Impacting Meta Beyond future-oriented projects like Orion, Meta’s AI advancements are actively enhancing its core business in two strategic areas: engagement and monetization. -Engagement: Meta's recommendation engine uses AI to tailor feeds with highly relevant video content, keeping users engaged. AI-driven prediction systems further increase app usage by showing content that maximizes interaction. -Monetization: AI boosts ad efficiency across the entire lifecycle—from creation to performance tracking. Generative AI assists with ad copy, images, and video, while advanced models analyze user behavior to serve targeted ads, improving conversion rates incrementally. -Meta AI Studio: This platform allows developers to create, train, and deploy custom AI models within Meta’s ecosystem. By enabling personalized assistants, interactive AI, and AR applications, Meta seeks to drive new consumer apps and maximize ad potential across its platforms. Market Share Meta’s advertising revenue hit $39.9 billion in Q3, reaching 81% of Google’s search revenue, up from 76% last year. Meta’s ad revenue is expanding at the same rate as Amazon’s, despite Meta’s larger base, signaling regained market share and effective adaptation to the post-ATT environment. 3. Key Quotes from the Earnings Call CEO Mark Zuckerberg - On AI and the Family of Apps: “Improvements to our AI-driven feed and video recommendations have led to an 8% increase in time spent on Facebook and a 6% increase on Instagram this year alone. More than a million advertisers used our GenAI tools to create over 15 million ads last month, and we estimate businesses using Image Generation are seeing a 7% conversion lift.” -On Llama 4: “We're training the Llama 4 models on a cluster larger than 100,000 H100s, more extensive than anything reported elsewhere.” -On RayBan Meta Glasses: “Glasses are the ideal AI form factor as they let your AI see, hear, and communicate with you. Demand remains strong, with the new clear edition selling out quickly.” -On Meta AI: “We’re on track for Meta AI to become the world’s most used AI assistant by year-end, with popular uses including information gathering, task assistance, and content exploration.” CFO Susan Li -On Recommendations: “Inspired by scaling laws observed in large language models, we’ve developed new ranking architectures for Facebook video that enhance relevance and increase watch time” -On Capital Allocation: “We’re optimistic about our opportunities and believe that investing now in infrastructure and talent will accelerate progress and returns.” 4. The Potential Decline of the Creator Economy Facebook and Instagram have evolved from social networks to content networks, benefiting creators with wide-reaching platforms. However, this era may be coming to a close. -AI-Generated Content: Zuckerberg shared plans to introduce AI-generated and AI-summarized content on Facebook, Instagram, and potentially Threads, gradually shifting away from creator-generated content as the primary engagement driver. -Impact on Creators: As AI learns to identify and generate engaging content, creators could struggle to compete, with algorithms delivering exactly what audiences want. Over time, creators may face a landscape where AI determines the most engaging posts, relegating them to the sidelines in a world increasingly powered by self-generating content. -Why It Matters: Platforms like YouTube share 55% of ad revenue with creators, but Meta does not, meaning that an AI-driven shift isn’t primarily about cost-cutting. Instead, it allows for more integrated ad placements within algorithmic feeds, potentially boosting impressions and conversions. Although AI generated feeds may sound dystopian, current high engagement accounts already use tactics to maximize engagement, meaning the shift to AI might go largely unnoticed by audiences.
NASDAQ:META
by moonypto
2
CALT.N0000 - Weekly Chart UpdateThe Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted based on the all-time high and low values, providing insight into potential support and resistance zones. The key Fibonacci levels observed on this chart are : 0.236 Level: Around 73.2, which could act as a significant resistance if the stock starts moving up from the current levels. 0.382 Level: Around 60.8, another potential resistance. 0.5 Level: Around 50.7, often considered a pivotal level in retracement analysis. 0.618 Level (Golden Pocket): Around 40.6, which is a critical level and can act as strong support if the price approaches it from above. Current Price and 21-Week Moving Average (Green Line) : The price is currently around 43.8, slightly above the 0.618 Fibonacci level (40.6), suggesting the price is in a critical area. The 21-week moving average (green line) is also near the current price level. This moving average could act as dynamic support if the price remains above it. If it breaks below, it may signal further downside risk. Descending Trendline Resistance : The chart shows a strong descending trendline that has been respected multiple times as resistance. The stock would need to break above this trendline to confirm a reversal or more significant bullish momentum. Support and Resistance Levels : Immediate Resistance: Around 47.1 (Weekly Mid Resistance) and 53 (Weekly Resistance). Support Levels: The 0.618 Fibonacci level at 40.6 and the 0.786 level around 26.3 are key support areas. If the price falls below 40.6, the next significant support zone would be around 26.3. Relative Strength Index (RSI) : The RSI appears to be in a lower range, which could imply oversold conditions on the weekly chart. This may provide some support for the price, but a confirmed upward trend would still depend on breaking key resistance levels. Summary: The stock is in a consolidation phase near critical Fibonacci and moving average levels. A break above 47.1 and ultimately above the descending trendline could signal the beginning of a potential reversal. However, if the price falls below the 0.618 level (40.6), there may be a further downside risk, with 26.3 acting as the next major support. The 21-week MA and the 0.618 level are crucial for maintaining the current consolidation or an upward move, so keeping an eye on these levels is essential. Disclaimer : The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:CALT.N0000
by rukshan2102
Linde plc | LIN Linde, Timeless Excellence Linde is a timeless business with even better stability than other basic materials businesses. The company works in gases and has a near-unbroken EPS growth record of 8% annually Linde is a market leader, and if you invest in the company, you're investing in the world's largest company for industrial gases. The company was originally a result of a takeover of British BOC in 2006, and again the 2018 merger of Linde and Praxair, a US company. On the macro upside, there was a 1) supportive regulatory framework in the USA and in the EU on green opportunities and hydrogen, 2) the Ukraine invasion was also a key catalyst towards the energy transition, 3) the EU chip acts with €43 billion in supporting funds as well as the United States Chips and Science Act development for a value of approximately $52 billion, and 4) higher needs of specialty gas in EV car. Related to the micro upside, the company is more diversified on a GEO revenue basis and sells different product solutions starting from cylinders to bulk liquid. In addition with a follow-up note titled "Positive News Ahead", we reported Linde's lower cost structure with the Frankfort delisting. Aside from removing the dual listing expenses, we positively view this development because US companies' P/E multiple are usually higher compared to the EU one. To support our MACRO buy case recap, in the second quarter, Linde announced two new projects with Evonik and Heidelberg Materials (both companies covered by our internal team). The company signed a long-term agreement to produce green hydrogen for Evonik in a 9-megawatt alkaline electrolyzer plant in Singapore. With Heidelberg, Linde will build a large-scale carbon capture close to the Lengfurt plant in Germany. As a reminder, cement production is estimated to be responsible for around 7% of global in 2022, APD's earnings per share were at $8.38, and Linde's earnings per share were fairly similar at $8.23. For 2023, Air Products and Chemical EPS guide a midpoint at $11.40 while Linde's EPS is forecasted at $13.65. Looking at the ROCE, in Q4 2022, APD stood at 11.7% and Linde at 13.4%. In the last quarter, APD’s ROCE was flat on the two-year comparison, while Linde’s after-tax ROCE reached 24.0%. While there are some business & regional nuances between the two leading companies (for instance, APD is lacking U.S. packaged gas business), here at the Lab, we believe are more inclined toward Linde, particularly when organic growth has been fairly similar. Cross-checking APD and Linde's last quarter results, we should recall that on a comparable basis, the German player volumes were flat with an average selling price up by 8%. On the other hand, APD increased its volume by 6% with an increase in the average selling price of 8% too. APD adj EBITDA grew by 13% while Linde achieved a plus 11%. However, Linde's EU exposure is greater than APD. Therefore, this is supportive of Linde's bottom line. In numbers, excluding the Engineering divisional performance, Linde's EMEA sales reached $2,177 million and represented 29.72% of the company's total sales. Compared to Q1 2022 number, turnover grew by 10% and was driven by a 13% of cost pass-through increase.
LLong
by moonypto
6
Berkshire Hathaway | No More Apple Pie & Bank Bread!No More Apple Pie and Bank Bread | Buffett’s Recipe for Market Caution Berkshire Hathaway has recently disclosed its earnings amid fluctuating around a $1 trillion valuation. A notable update is its continued reduction of stakes in overvalued assets, including a 20% decrease in holdings of Apple and Bank of America, boosting its cash reserves to $325 billion Although Warren Buffett himself isn't favoring share buybacks at present, Berkshire Hathaway stands as a compelling investment option Why Berkshire Hathaway's $325 Billion Cash Pile Signals Market Caution The company's net earnings remain subject to significant fluctuations due to rules requiring valuation changes of investment holdings. However, there was a slight decline in operating earnings, mainly driven by lower insurance underwriting income. Despite this, that segment is historically volatile, and year over year aka YoY, the company has maintained strong performance. Yea2date aka YTD, operating earnings have risen over 10%, totaling just under $33 billion compared to just below $29 billion last year. This points to an annualized earnings estimate of approximately $44 billion, implying a price2earnings aka P/E ratio of about 22, without factoring in over $320 billion in cash and significant investment holdings. Excluding cash and investments, the adjusted P/E ratio is closer to single digits. Share buybacks have paused, reflected in a ~1% decrease in the outstanding shares YoY, signaling Berkshire's assessment of current market valuations. Segment Highlights The various business units within Berkshire Hathaway showcase its robust asset base and earning capacity. Insurance underwriting income saw a sharp YoY drop, but other business areas performed strongly. Income from insurance investments remained solid, and BNSF, its railroad subsidiary, also showed strong results despite a double digit YoY decline. Berkshire Hathaway Energy continues its growth, cementing its position in the utility sector with significant renewable energy ventures. For context, NextEra Energy (NEE), with a market capitalization of $160 billion, posted quarterly earnings around 10% higher. Berkshire's other controlled and non-controlled businesses contribute over $13 billion annually, underpinning its diversification and consistent earnings performance. This strength across segments underscores its formidable financial health. Market Context Currently, market valuations are elevated by historical standards. Excluding periods of earnings dips, market enthusiasm is exceptionally high, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio nearing 30x, approaching levels last seen in 1999. Buffett and Berkshire appear to view a 3% yield from such a P/E as unattractive, especially when bonds offer higher returns. The 2008 Playbook Berkshire's track record of effectively utilizing its cash reserves is notable. Excluding its insurance float, the company still holds $150 billion in cash. During the 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire leveraged its liquidity for strategic investments in companies like General Electric, Swiss Re, Dow Chemical, and Bank of America, as well as finalizing the full acquisition of BNSF in 2010. This proactive use of capital proved advantageous. The current strategic sale of assets suggests Berkshire is preparing for potential market downturns. Given high S&P 500 valuations, reallocating part of an S&P 500 position into Berkshire Hathaway could be wise, ensuring exposure to a cash-rich portfolio capable of seizing future opportunities. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s earnings are valued lower than the broader market, potentially minimizing major downturn risks. Investment Risks A key risk is that timing the market is inherently challenging, with the adage "time in the market beats timing the market" serving as a caution. If Berkshire's market outlook is incorrect, its $300+ billion in cash could underperform while broader markets remain strong, which would diminish its appeal as an investment. Final Thoughts Berkshire Hathaway has taken the bold step of liquidating some of its most significant and priciest holdings, opting to incur capital gains taxes to increase liquidity. This move has bolstered its cash position to $325 billion, $150 billion above its float level. Meanwhile, its strong operational businesses continue generating healthy cash flow. Drawing on its successful strategies during the 2008 crisis, Berkshire appears to be positioning itself for another downturn amid current high market valuations. We advise investors to consider shifting part of their S&P 500 exposure into Berkshire Hathaway for enhanced diversification and potential benefits in a market correction, long story short Berkshire Hathaway remains a robust investment opportunity but wont make millionaire! What do you think moonypto fam?
NYSE:BRK.A
by moonypto
Microsoft’s Big Moves This Quarter | From Activision to AI AgentMicrosoft’s Revenue Surge: The Power of AI, Gaming, and Strategic Investments Microsoft has released its Q1 FY25 earnings for the quarter ending in September The stock saw a 6% drop, indicating the results fell short of investors' high hopes. Trading at over 30 times projected earnings for next year, expectations for Microsoft were significant. CEO Satya Nadella stated “Our AI business is set to exceed an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion next quarter, making it the fastest business in our history to reach this milestone.” This means that AI will soon account for about 4% of Microsoft's total revenue in under three years a remarkable feat for a global giant. If you need a quick summary, here are three main points: 1. ☁️ Azure’s growth is slowing. As Microsoft’s key player in the AI competition, Azure grew 34%, down slightly from 35% in the prior quarter (after adjustments). This comes as Google Cloud raised the bar, with its growth accelerating from 29% to 35% during the same period. 2. 🤖 AI growth is limited by hardware supply, as capacity struggles to meet demand. Data center expansion is a long-term process, and Microsoft is investing heavily in infrastructure, aiming for a growth boost by 2025. 3. 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 Consumer-focused products like Gaming and Devices are underperforming. Although not essential to Microsoft's core business, their poor performance has impacted overall results. Here’s a breakdown of the insights from the quarter. Overview of today’s insights: - New segmentation. - Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 overview. - Key earnings call highlights. - Future areas to monitor. 1. New Segmentation Revised Business Segments In August, Microsoft announced a reorganization of its business segments, effective this quarter. The purpose? To better align financial reporting with the current business structure and strategic management. Summary of the main changes - Microsoft 365 Commercial revenue consolidation: All M365 commercial revenue, including mobility and security services, now falls under the Productivity and Business Processes segment. -Copilot Pro revenue shift: Revenue from the Copilot Pro tool was moved from Productivity and Business Processes to the More Personal Computing segment under Search and news advertising. -Nuance Enterprise reallocation: Revenue from Nuance, previously part of Intelligent Cloud, is now included in Productivity and Business Processes. -Windows and Devices reporting combination: Microsoft now reports Windows and Devices revenue together. Impact of These Changes: Core Segments Overview: In summary: - The Productivity and Business Processes segment has grown significantly. - The Intelligent Cloud segment has decreased due to the reallocation of Nuance and other revenue. Products and Services Overview: - M365 Commercial now includes Nuance, shifted from the Server products category, along with integrated mobility and security services. - Windows & Devices have been merged into a single, slower-growth category. Additional Insights: - Azure, Microsoft's cloud platform, is reported within 'Server products and cloud services.' Although its growth rate is shared by management, exact revenue figures remain undisclosed. Azure’s past growth figures have been adjusted for consistency, with the last quarter’s constant currency growth recast from 30% to 35%, setting a higher benchmark. Tracking these metrics is challenging due to limited revenue disclosure, but this recast indicates Azure's raised growth expectations. 2. Microsoft’s Q1 FY25 Performance Financial Summary: -Revenue: Up 16% year-over-year, reaching $65.6 billion (exceeding estimates by $1 billion). Post-Activision Blizzard acquisition in October 2023, the growth was 13% excluding the merger. New Product and Services Segmentation Results - Server products & cloud services: $22.2 billion (+23% Y/Y). - M365 Commercial: $20.4 billion (+13% Y/Y). - Gaming: $5.6 billion (+43% Y/Y), influenced by Activision. - Windows & Devices: $4.3 billion (flat Y/Y). - LinkedIn: $4.3 billion (+10% Y/Y). - Search & news advertising: $3.2 billion (+7% Y/Y). - Enterprise & partner services: $1.9 billion (flat Y/Y). - Dynamics: $1.8 billion (+14% Y/Y). - M365 Consumer products: $1.7 billion (+5% Y/Y). Core Business Segments Breakdown: - Productivity and Business Processes: Increased 12% Y/Y to $28.3 billion, supported by M365 Commercial, especially Copilot adoption. - Intelligent Cloud: Grew 20% Y/Y to $24.1 billion, with Azure AI driving growth. - More Personal Computing: Grew 17% Y/Y to $13.2 billion, including a 15-point boost from Activision. Devices fell, but search and ad performance improved under new segmentation. Key Observations: - Microsoft Cloud revenue climbed 22% Y/Y to $39 billion, making up 59% of total revenue (+3 percentage points Y/Y). - Azure continues to drive cloud services and server products' growth. - Xbox growth has surged due to the Activision acquisition since Q2 FY24, expected to stabilize by Q2 FY25. - Windows OEM and devices combined, showing a 2% decline in Q1 FY25. - Office rebranded to Microsoft 365; updated naming will be used starting next quarter. - Margins: Gross margin at 69% (down 2pp Y/Y, 1pp Q/Q); operating margin at 47% (down 1pp Y/Y, up 4pp Q/Q). - EPS: Increased 10% to $3.30, beating by $0.19. Cash Flow and Balance Sheet: - Operating cash flow: $34 billion (52% margin, down 2pp Y/Y). - Cash**: $78 billion; Long-term debt**: $43 billion. Q2 FY25 Outlook: - Productivity and Business Processes: Anticipated 10%-11% Y/Y growth, steady due to M365, Copilot inclusion, and expected LinkedIn growth of ~10%. Dynamics set to grow mid-to-high teens. - Intelligent Cloud: Projected 18%-20% Y/Y growth, slightly slowing, with Azure growth expected between 28%-29%. - More Personal Computing: Forecasted ~$14 billion revenue, declines in Windows, Devices, and Gaming anticipated, with some offset from Copilot Pro. Main Takeaways: - Azure's growth slowed to 34% Y/Y in constant currency, with AI services contributing 12pp, up from 11pp last quarter. This marks a dip from the recast 35% prior and included an accounting boost. - Capacity limitations in AI persist; more infrastructure investments are planned, with reacceleration expected in H2 FY25. - Commercial performance obligations grew 21% to $259 billion, up from 20% in Q4. - Margins were pressured by AI infrastructure investments; Activision reduced the operating margin by 2 points. - Capital expenditures increased by 50% to $15 billion, half dedicated to infrastructure, with further Capex growth expected. - Shareholder returns included $9.0 billion through buybacks and dividends, matching Q4 repurchases. Earnings Call Highlights: Azure AI saw a doubling of usage over six months, positioning it as a foundation for services like Cosmos DB and SQL DB. Microsoft Fabric adoption grew 14% sequentially, signaling rapid uptake. AI Expansion: GitHub Copilot enterprise use surged 55% Q/Q, with AI-powered capabilities used by nearly 600,000 organizations, a 4x increase Y/Y. M365 Copilot has achieved a 70% adoption rate among Fortune 500 companies and continues to grow rapidly. LinkedIn saw accelerated growth in markets like India and Brazil and a 6x quarterly increase in video views, aligning with broader social media trends. Search and Gaming: Bing’s revenue growth surpassed the market, while Game Pass hit a new revenue record, propelled by Black Ops 6 Capital Expenditures: CFO Amy Hood highlighted that half of cloud and AI investments are for long-term infrastructure, positioning the company for sustained growth. 4. Future Outlook Energy Needs: Microsoft, facing higher power demands, plans to revive a reactor at Three Mile Island with Constellation Energy by 2028 to power its AI data centers sustainably. Autonomous AI Agents: Coming in November, these agents will perform tasks with minimal human input, enhancing efficiency. Copilot Studio will allow businesses to customize these agents, with 10 pre-built options to start. Industry Impact: Salesforce has launched Agentforce, signaling increased competition. CEO Mark Benioff recently compared Microsoft’s Copilot to the nostalgic Clippy, stoking rivalry. For further analysis stay tuned
NASDAQ:MSFT
by moonypto
AMD’s Earnings Stumble | A Golden Opportunity for Investors?Post Earnings Dip, Is AMD ready for a 2025 Comeback? Shares of Advanced Micro Devices dropped over 10% after releasing its third quarter FY2024 earnings report, which fell short of investors’ expectations. Although the results were not poor, the market had high hopes given AMD's premium stock valuation. The company did surpass revenue projections, but its non GAAP EPS matched market expectations plus the midpoint of its fourth-quarter revenue forecast slightly missed estimates. In my prior analysis, I upgraded AMD from a sell to a buy after a 20% dip, which realigned market expectations. Since that upgrade, the stock has climbed 15%, outperforming the S&P 500 Index by 9%. The recent earnings-driven decline has brought AMD's stock price close to my previously mentioned level. While the gaming segment saw a sharper decline in revenue in 3Q, the Data Center GPU division continued to exhibit strong growth, boosting overall revenue growth and improving margins. I believe AMD is still in a strong position to further accelerate revenue growth and margin expansion in the fourth quarter and beyond. As a result, I see the post-earnings dip as a buying opportunity and maintain my buy rating on the stock, supported by its anticipated growth phase justifying its premium valuation. For 4Q FY2024, AMD projects 21.6% YoY revenue growth at the midpoint of its guidance, with a $300 million potential variance. This growth is expected to be driven by continued expansion in Data Center GPUs. Although the midpoint guidance is slightly below market consensus, I believe AMD could exceed this number, given its track record. My estimate suggests a 24% YoY revenue increase, or $150 million above the midpoint. 3Q EPS Analysis Shows Margin Pressure AMD has shown consistent margin improvement since 4Q FY2023, though the pace in 3Q didn't meet expectations. EPS aligned with estimates despite revenue exceeding forecasts, indicating margin challenges. Non-GAAP gross margin rose by 50 bps sequentially, while non-GAAP EBIT margin showed strong improvement, rising by 350 bps QoQ. AMD forecasts a 4Q non-GAAP gross margin of 54% and operating expenses of $2.05 billion, driven by a favorable mix from its Data Center segment, which now represents 52% of total revenue. Management noted that gross margins in the Data Center segment are below the company average, focusing on customer needs and market growth for future gains. This contrasts with NVIDIA (NVDA), which reportedly has higher Data Center margins, though specific figures are not disclosed. With a 4Q revenue consensus at $7.65 billion, AMD projects a non-GAAP EBIT margin of 27.2%, suggesting an additional 200 bps sequential increase. The company appears well-positioned for both revenue growth and margin improvement, despite its valuation declining after the recent stock pullback. 4Q EPS Outlook Signals Continued Growth Although 3Q non-GAAP EPS met expectations, AMD’s growth accelerated from 18.1% YoY in 2Q to 32% in 3Q. However, the selloff post-earnings implies that investors anticipated even higher growth. Based on 4Q guidance, I estimate AMD’s non-GAAP EPS at $1.10, marking a 44% YoY increase. AMD's FCF profile also improved, generating $496 million in 3Q, a 13% QoQ increase despite a one-time acquisition-related expense of $123 million. Higher capital expenditures are expected in FY2025 to support MI300 growth and maintain momentum. Market Expectations and Valuation Impacts Before the 10% post 3Q selloff, AMD’s EV/EBITDA TTM was higher than NVIDIA’s, but they are now on par, despite AMD’s margins and growth trailing NVIDIA's. AMD’s non-GAAP EV/EBITDA forward multiple is 46.3x, compared to NVIDIA’s 42.6x, and its forward P/E ratio is 50.4x, 17% above its 5-year average and higher than NVIDIA’s 49.7x. While AMD's premium valuation can be justified given its growth acceleration, NVIDIA’s triple-digit EPS growth is not expected to continue. Moreover, NVIDIA’s gross margin recently declined, reinforcing the case for AMD’s valuation as it expands its growth in FY2025. AMD’s stock has retraced to a 0% YTD return due to margin concerns and underperformance in Gaming and Embedded segments, though the latter is gradually recovering. However, the company’s strong Data Center gains and continued margin expansion indicate a solid growth phase. The recent selloff has recalibrated market expectations, and with ongoing AI-driven demand, AMD’s growth is likely to extend into FY2025, making the pullback an attractive buying opportunity. What you think, Are you Moonish on AMD?
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
3
Estee Lauder’s 26% Plunge: Revenue Miss & All Short Targets Hit!Estee Lauder (EL) Stock Analysis: Estee Lauder (EL) saw a dramatic 26% drop, marking a significant bearish turn as all short trade targets on the 15-minute timeframe were swiftly reached. The chart reflects intense selling pressure, with shares plummeting after disappointing earnings and cautious guidance. Key Trade Details: Entry Level: 88.29 Target Levels: TP1: 87.89 TP2: 87.29 TP3: 86.58 TP4: 86.17 Stop Loss: 88.62 Key Market Insights: Revenue Miss and Guidance Withdrawal: Estee Lauder missed revenue expectations, reporting a 4% YoY decline, and pulled its fiscal 2025 outlook, signaling incremental uncertainty in the Chinese market and Asia’s travel retail sector. The company now plans to provide only quarterly guidance. Challenges in China and Travel Retail: Weak consumer sentiment in China and reduced demand in Asia travel retail, including low conversion rates in Hong Kong, led to a 5% drop in organic net sales, impacting overall performance. Summary: Estee Lauder’s sharp decline capitalized on bearish momentum, achieving all short trade targets quickly. The disappointing earnings, along with withdrawn guidance, underscore the headwinds Estee Lauder faces in a slowing global economy, particularly in Asia. This setup demonstrates the high-risk, high-reward potential for short-term trades in volatile stocks.
NYSE:ELShort
by ProfitsNinja
Tharimmune (THAR) Soars with Positive EMA Feedback!Analysis: Tharimmune (THAR) is showing strong upward momentum on the 15-minute timeframe, setting up for a promising long trade. Recent entry at 5.23, with clear targets ahead: Target 1: 7.31 Target 2: 10.69 Target 3: 14.07 Target 4: 16.16 Key Driver: Positive regulatory feedback from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) on Tharimmune’s TH104 clinical program for treating chronic pruritus in primary biliary cholangitis has fueled significant investor interest, pushing the stock upward. Technical Overview: The chart illustrates a breakout pattern with well-defined support and resistance levels. If momentum continues, the stock is positioned to hit all targets as shown using the Risological Swing Trader as investor confidence builds.
NASDAQ:THARLong
by ProfitsNinja
OLA ELECTRIC Plummets as Complaints Soar – BUT, We Made Money!OLA ELECTRIC Stock Analysis: Ola Electric (OLAELEC) recently experienced a significant downturn, with all targets met in a notable short trade on the 15-minute timeframe. The ongoing downtrend can be attributed to multiple external pressures: Massive Customer Complaints: India’s Central Consumer Protection Authority (CCPA) reported over 10,000 complaints within a year related to Ola’s after-sales services, billing inaccuracies, and delays. This high volume of complaints is unprecedented, prompting government intervention. Consumer Protection Action: Ola Electric received a show-cause notice from Indian authorities, demanding an explanation for the alleged violations of consumer rights and trade practices. The repercussions could include directives for customer compensation or even financial penalties. Service Overload at Centers: Numerous reports indicate that Ola’s service centers are struggling to keep up with demand, leading to extensive backlogs and dissatisfied customers. According to analysts, many centers appear overwhelmed, further deteriorating Ola's brand image. Market Sentiment Impact: Following these revelations, Ola’s share value has sharply fallen, reversing the gains from its August IPO. The stock has lost nearly 40% in recent weeks, with negative sentiment further amplified by viral customer complaints on social media. With external pressures mounting and consumer confidence waning, Ola Electric’s stock faces a challenging recovery path. The short trade setup capitalized on this decline, achieving all preset targets amidst the company’s reputational crisis. Key Levels: Entry: 93.86 Targets Achieved: TP1 at 90.87, TP2 at 86.04, TP3 at 81.21, TP4 at 78.22 Stop Loss: 96.27 Ola Electric’s road ahead remains uncertain as regulatory scrutiny intensifies and consumer trust continues to erode.
NSE:OLAELECShort
by ProfitsNinja
4