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NSE:ASTRAL Ltd's -Abki bar breakout ke liye Tayar 🌋???NSE:ASTRAL Astral Poly Technik Ltd: Pioneering the Indian Plumbing and Adhesive Industry Established in 1996, Astral Poly Technik Ltd set out with a vision to manufacture pro-India plumbing and drainage systems. Over the years, it has expanded into the adhesive business, marking its territory across multiple domains. Historical Milestones Astral has emerged as a frontrunner in the CPVC pipes and fittings sector in India. It pioneered the introduction of lead-free PVC pipes in 2004 and brought lead-free uPVC column pipes to the market in 2012. The company's strategic move into the adhesives space occurred in 2014, with the acquisitions of Seal IT Services Limited (UK) and Resinova Chemie Limited (RCL). Diverse Product Range Astral's portfolio extends beyond pipes to include water tanks, faucets, sanitary ware, and paints. It boasts approximately 37 variants in its pipe and tank segment and about 23 in adhesives. Revenue Breakdown A) Piping Division: Contributing 73% to the company’s revenues, Astral offers an array of products for various systems, including fire sprinklers and industrial applications. The acquisition of Rex Polyextrusion added specialties like corrugated pipes and telecom line protection systems to its arsenal. B) Adhesives Division: Accounting for 27% of revenues, this division offers products ranging from epoxy adhesives and sealants to construction chemicals and tapes. Inorganic Growth and International Presence Astral has spread its wings internationally, with manufacturing in 3 countries and exports to over 25. It generates around 8% of its revenue from international sales. Manufacturing Excellence The company's manufacturing footprint includes eight piping and water tank facilities in India and five adhesives plants globally. To optimize logistics costs, Astral strategically positions its facilities to serve different regions within India and has recently expanded to Bhubaneswar, Odisha. Future Expansion Astral plans to augment the capacity of its Bhubaneswar plant and is establishing new facilities in Guwahati, Hyderabad, and Kanpur. These are set to become operational between FY24 and FY25, with a planned annual capex of ₹300-350 crore funded through internal accruals. Extensive Distribution Network The company's robust distribution network features over 2,750 distributors and more than 1,93,000 dealers. With a strong foothold in West and South India, the piping business is expected to grow in the North and East with new facilities. Strategic Raw Material Sourcing The company predominantly imports CPVC resin from Sekisui Chemical and relies on domestic giants like Reliance Industries for PVC resins. New Ventures In the pursuit of diversification, Astral ventured into faucets and sanitary ware in October 2021, eyeing a market potential of ₹15,000 Cr. This division is led by Mr. Atul Sanghvi, the former CEO of CERA, who has since resigned effective from 30.10.23. In the paints category, Astral acquired a majority stake in Gem Paints Pvt Ltd, with further investments to consolidate its position. Brand Visibility Astral leverages brand endorsement through Bollywood icons and sports associations. It has partnered with celebrities like Ranveer Singh and Allu Arjun to enhance its market visibility, allocating 2-3% of its net sales for promotional endeavors. Subsidiaries and Growth The company oversees 9 subsidiaries as of FY23, with a footprint extending beyond Indian borders. As Astral Poly Technik Ltd continues to build on its strengths and explore new markets, it stands as a testament to the potential of Indian manufacturing and the importance of strategic growth. Source: Screener.in Disc: Invested for long time , adding in anticipation of breakout this time - Abki bar breakout ke liye tayar
NSE:ASTRALLong
by Peaceful-Weekend-Investing
1
BTC Cycle 1 & 2 | S2F | EMA 2W 100, 2W 30 OBV - CN10Y/ Credit Waiting for this cycle to unfold I'm starting to see 2 repeats of the same scenario not 3-4 cycles like some believe they have lived through. Cycle 1 & 2 both have this "accumulation" at the macro channel bottom hovering just under the 100 2 Week Moving Average How this plays out is the 30 2 Week Moving Average clamps down onto the 100 right before making a strong reverse. Between Cycles we see a "honey moon period" I'm not sure what else to call it, followed by a new cycle. Watching the S2F this period is looking more like the start of a new cycle with 2 "Bull markets" inside the trend, both identical 100/30 MA. Taking the credit movement CN10Y/DXY/M2 we see literally an exact match where Bitcoin has front run the expansion of credit before other assets. . This is what Bonds are supposed to do hence "bonds being the smart money". I built and posted positions I started all around the 20k mark that extends out to 2025-2026 remember with assets like this time is your friend. Options volatility is pretty much flat > bearish across the board with call options on BTC over 100k by mid 2024 all under the 80% mark. On top of this Bitcoin miners are slightly more bullish on IV % but rounded up the market is in neutral. Confirmation I'm looking for is at least $70,000 by end of year.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by FederalXBT
CSCO Cisco Systems Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold CSCO here: Or reentered here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CSCO Cisco Systems prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 53usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-8-18, for a premium of approximately $1.77. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:CSCOLong
by TopgOptions
1 MILLION DOLLARSHello Everyone, MrBanker is here. This is a stock-to-flow analysis for Bitcoin. This model incorporates the relationship between the circulationg supply and the total number of mined bitcoin on that particular year. This theory has been proved to be true during the life span of bitcoin. Accordingly, It is expected for the price to reach 1 Million $ starting from early 2024. However, the possibility for this outcome might be seen in the late 2028 as well. If you want to become a millionere without a doubt, just but 1 BTC. Trade Safe, MrBanker
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Mr_Banker
8
BTC to 40k by 2024? Algo Alert's take from a qualitative POVIntroduction: The world of cryptocurrencies has always been accompanied by speculation and predictions about their future prices. One popular model that has gained attention is the LGS2F (Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow) model, which presents a modified version of the original stock-to-flow model for predicting Bitcoin prices. In this blog, we will delve into the LGS2F model and its implications for Bitcoin price predictions. Understanding the LGS2F Model: The LGS2F model acknowledges the limitations of the original stock-to-flow model, which projected an infinite growth trajectory for Bitcoin prices. This new model takes a more conservative approach by incorporating the concept of limited growth. By doing so, it aims to provide more realistic predictions that align with the inherent characteristics of Bitcoin. Limited Growth Concept: The concept of limited growth implies that the price of Bitcoin will not skyrocket indefinitely but will experience more moderate growth over time. This idea reflects the understanding that as Bitcoin matures and gains wider adoption, its growth potential becomes constrained by various factors such as market saturation, regulatory influences, and competition from other cryptocurrencies. Predictions for Bitcoin Price: According to the LGS2F model, Bitcoin is projected to reach a price of around 40,000 USD by the end of 2024. This prediction suggests a more measured growth pattern compared to previous models, which envisioned exponential price increases. The modified model takes into account the increasing scarcity of Bitcoin as well as its growing acceptance in various industries and financial markets. Factors Influencing the Predictions: The LGS2F model considers several key factors that impact Bitcoin price predictions: Stock-to-Flow Ratio: The stock-to-flow ratio is a measure of scarcity that compares the existing supply of Bitcoin (stock) to the newly generated supply (flow) each year. It plays a crucial role in the model's calculations and reflects Bitcoin's limited supply. Market Dynamics: The model takes into account market dynamics, including investor sentiment, market cycles, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments. These factors can influence the demand for Bitcoin and consequently affect its price. Adoption and Integration: As Bitcoin gains wider adoption and integration into mainstream financial systems, its perceived value and utility increase. The LGS2F model considers the impact of adoption and integration on price predictions. Conclusion: The LGS2F model provides a modified approach to Bitcoin price predictions by incorporating the concept of limited growth. Its projection of Bitcoin reaching around 40,000 USD by the end of 2024 reflects a more conservative estimate compared to previous models. However, it's important to remember that cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and subject to numerous unpredictable factors. As with any predictive model, it's crucial to approach Bitcoin price predictions with caution and consider them alongside other fundamental and technical analysis tools. The LGS2F model offers a fresh perspective that acknowledges the evolving nature of Bitcoin and provides a more realistic framework for understanding its future price movements. read more about the Limited Growth Stock to Flow model: medium.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
Bitcoin Stock-To-FlowThe Bitcoin Stock-To-Flow Indicator has come under alot of attack recently for failing to adhere to the Bitcoin price as originally forecast and has been deemed as an unreliable indicator by many critics. However, what I'm showing you here is a new way to "see" the indicator which might change how everyone views it in the future. Note how close price is at the point where the S-T-F indicator makes a 900% jump to the next level at the yellow circles. This marks an important point in the S-T-F cycle and the price is right at or even on this point when it makes this jump. The next level jump will occur around the April 1, 2024 date which puts Bitcoin at or near the 150K target range. The likelihood that bitcoin will go higher than this price before this date seems unlikely at this point.... But you never know, the upper Red band is at the 250K level and would mark an extreme top for this cycle. The Long Term target is around Feb/March 2028 (scroll chart forward) which puts the Bitcoin price in the 1.5 Million range.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by cldx
1
Bitcoin, Triangles, a flagpole, and Stock to flowTLDR Don't overthink things. Stock to flow gives you a average price to target, and triangles are easy to spot and trade for targeting. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish. Introduction One of the most important things I have picked up on my relatively short trading career (about 5 years) is to have faith in the long term trading patterns. Long term trading patterns can help calm your mind and help you 360 degree set a trade with entries and stops and take profits that you can just fire and forget until your alerts tell you have taken profit or been stopped out. Due to the learning curve a lot of my technical analysis was better than my ability to hold a trade through without removing my stops, taking profits early, adding to my position when I should have been closing, so forth and so on. So this post will deal with the humble triangle Analysis The current patterns of interest are the purple symmetrical triangle which is occurring at the support of the orange ascending triangle. Triangles in themselves are one of the easiest patterns to recognize but some of the worst when it comes to full performance to target, throwbacks, and fakeouts. So, in general, the larger the pattern, the better, the more divergences you have to back up your bullish or bearish bias the better, and the clearer the fundamental case, the better. To back up our humble triangle we have hidden bullish divergence on the Stochastic and the RSI. Very simple and powerful indicators when used on the weekly timeframe to verify patterns. To further support our bullish bias is the stock to flow, which has acted as a leading indicator for bitcoins average price for the whole time the indicator has been in play after its creation. Targeting There are several ways to do target setting on a triangle. The main one would be to take the height of the uptrend, clone it, then move it to the point of break out. Now, with triangles being one of the worst with reaching full target that is perhaps not the best way to go about things unless you are very good with training your stops. As the chart below shows with the blue triangle, taking a high and low fib retracement and looking at the positive extensions can do a fairly good job of predicting local highs. Both the 1.414 and 1.618 were areas where price retraced. Going forward off of that draw, a pause at the 2 and 2.618 levels would be very predictable, reliable and technical. The chart below shows two different set of fibs. The bold black fibs are drawn off the ascending triangle and the dark purple fibs are based off of a fib extension treating the move as a flagpole and continuation pattern, like an Elliot wave 1 and 2. Where it appears both fibs are in agreement is an area we would suspect to see a stall with a future continuation pattern to develop. Fundamental Analysis This is a hypothesis I don't have time to fully flesh out here, but for a long time people have been hoping for rotation. A common rotation people hope to play is the roation out of equities into commodities. That was a good play in the early 2000 and many people are hoping for it to be a good play again. Now, I am hoping for a great rotation this time around out of equites and into crypto instead of commodities. And I think the charts support my notion of money rotating out of equities into crypto. Conclusion The stops are easy enough to set for even a new trader that has swung by investopedia.com or Bulkowski's thepatternsite.com and read the basic articles on triangles and flagpoles. The rotation thesis is likewise easy to understand, even if you don't agree with it, as is the concept behind the stock to flow model, which I did not dive into. Until the ascending triangle continuation pattern (on a flagpole) is negated I remain bullish.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
5
Bitcoin Stock to Flow price levels - weekly candle closeBitcoin Stock to Flow price levels - weekly candle close above $39.360 With view to significant S2F-values (white curves) I found several important price levels with impact on current BTC sideways action on weekly time frame. If $39.360 break the next support can be found at $35.440. Next higher weekly S2F-level is $44.484. What do you think? Interesting for you dear Crypto Nation? Drop me a nice comment if you'd like me to analyze any other cryptocurrency. *not financial advice do your own research before investing
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Crypto4Everybody
1
3 Drives to Complete the Cycle?With BTC finally showing a convincing local top at $69,000, I began exploring ideas for where the current retracement could end as well as what's next. Looking at the $29,300 bottom and creating a trendline with the $39,600 wick on 21 September, we can see it was respected a week later. This would make it a valid trendline in my book. A typical retracement in Crypto is the .618, but this one front ran it and only reached a 56% retracement of the move. Nothing too significant but it is important for context. Keeping the trendline and using some Fibonacci from the late September move to early November, we are entering the same territory for a completed correction of the move. What is interesting it is nearing the same territory as the trendline and the preceding retracement. So I began exploring the idea of us creating a large 3-drives pattern. The extension from $29,600 to $59,400 to $43,600, the last local high nearly hit the 1.272 extension, which is the target for each of the drives. Now applying some speculation on where price could end up. A few things line up nicely for an area for a bounce. Below at $50,000 we have quite a few areas of confluence including Fibonacci retrace + time, Trendline, Bull Market support, EW targets as well as psychological $50,000 and falling below Crypto Twitter's idea of the bottom being 52k, which would most likely make them bearish. The perfect storm to destroy retail. Now, we don't have to bottom there. But let's assume we do for the sake of this idea. Where would that take us? Well, there is a big grey area speculating this much so we can't say for certain. But placing the last extension pull at the trendline + fib time intersection. This is where it would put us. I think this is a very reasonable target for the top of the bull market going into 2022. A lot of people would be caught very caught off guard and left holding their bag until the next bull market. This market is designed to destroy as many people as possible, not to guarantee you riches. Let me know your thoughts below!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by vozah
2
Bitcoin Perspective Shifter"Everyone is wrong" as Raoul Paul urges people to understand the basic premise of markets which operate while causing the most pain. While many investors are catching on to the "sell the cycle top and buy the bear cycle bottom idea" he suggests that a confluence of global anomalies may cause the first initial sell off in December, with price dramatically rebounded soon after and sky-rocketing to yet a new ATH in 2022. He suggests that this is the path of most pain, because it MIGHT crash before reaching the targets many have planned for - causing mass hysteria panic selling, while savvy investors who had planned to accumulate throughout the bear accumulation period, may very well be left in the dust as it takes off again - completely annihilating both the bulls and the bears. I guess we shall wait and see. This is why everyone should learn to hedge their bets and learn sensible risk management. Anyways, one can usually find the patterns within the fractal charts to display a vision of various conflicting theories, so here is it. Here to activate your remote viewing powers.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by EsotericTrading
13
Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule? In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price. The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there. SF = stock / flow The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC. With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple? Price Model I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population. Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). You can see the results in the image below: Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13 The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association. Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data). ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have: ============================================ Final Equation: ■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297 Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ============================================ If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model. There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems. I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart. Estimating the range of price movements I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands. Residual STDEV = 0.82188 ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV => ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 => ■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297 In the same way: ■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297 I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands: ■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297 ■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297 These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels. Estimating of the future price movements Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future. At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025 It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be: BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07 Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation: Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$ Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion. Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice. Related indicator:
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDEducation
by BobRivera990
4
Will bitcoin create ATH in 2022?I predicted this growth from 31k and a lot of people didn't believe it at the time. But when the price reaches this price they still stand outside and wait and buy when the price surpasses the top at 64k. Last week was a bullish week and gave a very good signal according to my prediction. - For Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves. We see the similarity of 2014 and 2021, this week the price has started to break through 0.5 and I predict it will soon head towards point 1, then BTC price will be around $93k - $100k. - For the Stock-to-flow model, we can easily see that the price is still below the Stock/Flow threshold. In the past this model worked well to pull the price up and down accordingly. I have a question for you, are you scared and u only buy BTC with the condition that the price breaks above ATH in the $70k range?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BMynameX
Bitcoin Double-Top Theory (revised)This analysis breaks down traditional trend ideas to try to determine the top of the current bull market cycle. Bitcoin recently flash-crashed on April 17, 2021. There was a power outage that occurred that greatly affected hashrate. DOGE just reached a parabolic ATH. The Pi Cycle top indicator crossed over. Alt season appeared to be in full force with Litecoin reaching over $300. Here's why I believe that we could be at a temporary top, but why a second top is also in sight. Notice the 3.1 fib level created from prior cycles from top to second substantial bottom. So far it has predicted almost exactly where the bear market bottom could occur. Yes, this would knock Bitcoin off-track from the Bitcoin Log Growth Scales and also remove this cycle from many other previously believed to be true cycles. The 3.1 value has determined almost perfectly where the cycle top occurs in the next cycle. This is why I believe around $370k will be the next Bitcoin cycle top. This cycle more closely resembles 2012/2012 than 2016/2017. Each cycle ROI has lengthened in time. Thoughts appreciated.
BNC:BLXLong
by Kornholio
2