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Stocktoflow

BTC's next cycle high: $200k-250kThis is based off of stock 2 flow and statistical bands. In prior cycles, the cycle high tends to head towards the low range of the top s2f bands. The next s2f band bottom is 200-250k. This would be a blow-off top. The fair value could be more around 80k. I think the blow-off top will be more conservative than prior cycles because of mature money entering. Bigger funds and names will take profit earlier or not demand the buys as high as in prior cycles. This puts between $150-200k+ upper bound.
BNC:BLXLong
by block_muncher
Using Stock to Flow model 4 future BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTIONTo predict Bitcoin’s fair future value using the stock-to-flow model I charted stock to flow median price on a halvening dates and used parallel price channel as a boundary. The middle price is the "fair" price for that halvening period Upper price is 200% increase that correspons to overshoot above "fair" price during the bubble phase. The lower price corresponds to a 50% decrease from the "fair" price during the bear market after overshoot period ends. By this model next "fair price" to be expected in a year (because of the price lag) is 120 000 USD, 60k is price for a bear market while 360k is FOMO phase, and while this price might look too large for a asset class that just started to be seen as an investment asset class, central banks monetary policy works in Bitcoins favour. This (median) price would put Bitcoins marketcap above 2 Trillion Dollars. A huge sum by most standards, but since Corona virus crash more than 4 Trillion dollars found its way just into American economy, without ECB plan to flood the markets with even more free money (and the money printing machine still goes brrrrrrr). This fact means that price of 120K could in fact be way larger because of the inflation. Although all of this might look "moonboyish" Bitcoin doesn't stop to amaze us for more than decade. Now It is not the matter of IF bitcoin makes, it already made it... but a question how far will it go.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by i67WR
2
The Halving Dump Has Started, Planning To Buy June 20It's following the idea posted in the attached chart where I looked into how BTC tends to dump out near its halving date and then recovers a few weeks later. I did a spreadsheet a while back looking at its past post-halving dump and recovery paths and the green vertical box area is where I expect it to make a good dollar cost average buying region. Previously after halvings it typically would make a Wyckoff low volume accumulation type of pattern. Basically the smart money gradually soaks up the available crypto which causes price to rise slowly with very little volume. The low volume makes it look like it's a fake rally but actually it's very bullish since all the crypto is getting absorbed by the strong hands. I think the 2 point will be possibly the last best area to buy BTC since its timing is correct and it will form a bullish reversal diamond chart pattern. I am looking for it to follow an elliot path on the Fisher momentum chart that maps out a path inside the shown fork. I plan to hold whatever I buy this summer until the end of 2021 and then sell it all. I think stock to flow will continue to be accurate on btc and there may not be any other crypto that can keep up with it, although time will tell. In the mean time while it's making its way to the 2 point I am bearish and actually have a very small short scalp position.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by mljones
Quick Look At The State Of BitcoinBitcoin has performed exceptionally well so far this year (and will continue to do so in the long run). You can see Bitcoin is up almost 40.5% for the year. From here we have two more key levels to break before we test the S2F model's price prediction. (Stock to flow) Paul Tudor Jones announced he was bullish on Bitcoin. The halving date is May 12, 2020. I expect a pull back due to increased selling pressure as unprofitable miners sell their reserves (either to stay afloat, meet their contractual obligations, or to invest in capital expenditures to reach profitablility again, i.e purchase next generation mining eqiupment, ect.). After the miner capitulation, I believe we will test the two key resistance levels before finally breaking above around Q4 2020 or Q1 2021. Keep your hands strong!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by AnotherAnalyst
⚠️ Bitcoin Halving Dumpin my estimation, the most likely outcome for bitcoin short term is a crash leading up to OR after the halving (too much built up hype--reflected by bearish technicals), but the price should revert to the stock-to-flow pricing model afterwards within +-2 SD (i.e. 95% confidence) mid to long term, bitcoin is looking extremely bullish. there's simply no reason to be bearish, the current economic situation is the perfect storm and the expected returns for bitcoin are unmatched by any other asset class. i'd recommend not trying to time the market and continuing to regularly buy to get an average cost-basis (DCA). for more information on the stock-to-flow model for bitcoin, read this article: medium.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by delusional
3
Bitcoin Stock To Flow : Rainbow IndicatorHello everyone, I hope you are fine you and your family during this hard period. I just finished to program ( and adjusted ) the Stock To Flow Indicator, rainbow version, created by PlanB / 100trillionUSD. You can find it by searching " Bitcoin Stock To Flow Rainbow " in the indicators list. What the hell is Stock to flow ? I will use the words of the authors : " SF = stock / flow Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves. Flow is the yearly production . Instead of SF, people also use supply growth rate (flow/stock). Note that SF = 1 / supply growth rate. " With Bitcoin, we can know both of them : Stock = How many Bitcoins are currently in circulation Flow = How many Bitcoins are created each year Halving history and those to come : 28/11/2012 : 25 Bitcoins each block - 150 / hour - 3600 / day - 1314000 / year 09/07/2016 : 12.5 Bitcoins each block - 75 / hour - 1800 / day - 657000 / year 11/05/2020 : 6.25 Bitcoins each block - 32.5 / hour - 900 / day - 328500 / year ( ** estimation ) 10/03/2024 : 3.125 Bitcoins each block - 16.25 / hour - 450 / day - 164250 / year ( ** estimation ) 09/01/2028 : 1.5625 Bitcoins each block - 8.125 / hour - 225 / day - 82125 / year ( ** estimation ) Okok... but, how it works ? The mathematical formula used is: exp (-1.84) * (stock-to-flow^3.36) ( the rainbow line ) And the formula that I used for the top price line is : 1.2 * (stock-to-flow^3) ( the red line ) Then ? Firstly, the rainbow line IS the prediction model. Let's come to the color: each color indicates the time before the next halving. This allows, at a glance, to know where we are on a time scale What we can see : First of all, the price follows, I would even say is attracted, by the rainbow line. Then, when the price is found above the model, and even more when it approaches the red line, we can see that it's followed by a fall below the price model. Finally, it is therefore interesting to see that, for the moment: It's not good to buy when the price is above the rainbow line The ATH is reached, 2 times out of 3, between 900 & 1000 days before the next halving The Bottom is reached, between 400 & 600 days before the next halving After each halving, the price keep growing to the rainbow line, small by small. In conclusion, I think it can be said that the production of Bitcoin and the price of Bitcoin are intrinsically linked, in the long term.
BNC:BLX
by GoldenNaim
8
Stock To Flow Says BTC Should Be At $7100 But Could Go To $3800Stock to flow has a mid line near $7.1k which price tends to orbit around. I strongly expect price to return there especially with the halving coming up and miners nearly at capitulation even without the halving. Stock to flow also has a noise band around it and BTC price does sometimes explore to the edge of it. If it were to continue on in that direction you would expect stock to flow to put the floor at $3.8k. I don't really want to see BTC do that but I have to cover all the bases. I am interpreting this as: 1.) Don't touch long term accounts until the end of 2021. 2.) Short bias intraday until squeeze accumulation shows where the floor is. 3.) Be ready to switch to a long bias when miners are in capitulation or the halving is near.
BITTREX:BTCUSD
by mljones
#Bitcoin Stock to Flow "Out of this World" A leading IndicatorThis is incredible what is going on with the stock to flow ratio. A massive indication for the bulls. Lets look and how we can analysis this by looking back. Ive roughly circled in red around July 2016 that the STF had spiked it's largest in history in that time around the bottoming of the bitcoin price. Then in August 2017 Larger again but this time 4 weeks before we had that parabolic move to $19500. Come November 2018 another historical high (STF) 2 weeks before we bottomed and went on that run to $13600 in july 2019. But the current Stock to Flow is enormous. The chart price where the STF PEAKED!! December 2012 STF $229 - Bitcoin price $1100 1 year later August 2017 STF $10597 - Bitcoin price $19500 4 months later November 2018 STF $12100 -Bitcoin price $13600 7 months later Current STF $328000 - Bitcoin Price ?????
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by GlobalTrader_
6
When will BTC peak in the next parabolic rally?This is another iteration of a previously published chart, but simplified to drive the point home. Motivation Predicting the peak of BTC's next parabolic rally is critical for the profit-taking strategies of speculators and hodlers alike. For speculators, it's about knowing when to get out. For hodlers it's about how to grow your bags. Really, knowing the timing of the peak is more important than knowing the potential price levels. BTC is a deflationary asset. As market cap continually builds, flow is being squeezed on a pre-set schedule and real value continues to grow. So, we know price will rise. Whatever levels we may reach ($50K? $150K? $250K? 1 million?), taking profits requires knowing WHEN those peaks may be attained. Two Perspectives There seems to be two primary camps in the timing debate. In the first camp, there are analysts who note that the time between each previous peak has grown. For these analysts, the first all-time high of around $30 in 2011 is key. The subsequent ATH in 2013 of nearly $1,200 came only 2 years 5 months later (884 days). In contrast, the next ATH took 4 years and 1 month to arrive (1491 days). This 40% expansion in time between peaks logically leads some to believe we will see a similarly expanded time frame as we wait for the next peak, with many predicting peaks delayed until 2023 or even 2024. Such predictions, however, seem to discount or devalue the underlying architecture of BTC growth, the built-in halving cycle in which the flow of new BTC into the system drops every 4 years when the reward to miners is cut by 50%. The 2017 peak arrived 4 years and 1 month after the 2013 peak (1491 days). Was this a signal that the parabolic price cycle had become calibrated with the 4 year halving cycle? If so, the cycles seem to be offset by approximately 18 months, which would make the target for the next peak in or around December 2021, or some 18 months (1460 days) after the 3rd halving in May of 2020. The Upshot Obviously there are so many attenuating factors that can influence the market, and when and where we'll find peak price discovery is anyone's guess, but smart profit seekers would do well to monitor the market closely as we approach December 2021. Even if the peak is delayed, this should be a key profit-taking window for speculators. For hodlers, it will be an opportunity to strategically pull capital from overvalued BTC before the inevitable 75-85% retracement in which we can grow our bags with an eye to 2025 and beyond.
BNC:BLX
by DragonFish1969
Litecoin is halving in 2 months. I'm buying hype & selling news.Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Sawcruhteez Strategies: Comprehensive Trading Strategy - Consensio | Comprehensive Trading Process | How to BUY THE DIP | Advanced Dollar Cost Averaging Methods Consensio: Bullish Patterns: Daily ih&s Horizontals: R: 0.015 | S: 0.0145 Trendline: Parabolic SAR: D: 0.0133 LTCBTCSHORTS: Shorts are at support but longs aren't overbought TD’ Sequential: Today closed daily G3 > G2 | Weekly G2 > G1 Ichimoku Cloud: Daily is getting very close to a kumo breakout and a bullish kumo twist Relative Strength Index: Getting overbought but still room to go on Daily Average Directional Index: 4h needs to cool off. D still hasn't started a trend. Bollinger Bands: Testing top of daily band | Back above weekly band Stochastic Oscillator: Weekly buy signal Summary: I am buying spot Litecoin and I'm also opening leveraged longs on LTC:BTC. The game plan is to hold onto both until the ratio reaches 0.022. At that point I intend to cover the LTC:BTC long and trade the spot Litecoin for BTC. I am primarily interested in this trade because of the Litecoin halving, which is scheduled to occur 10 months before the Bitcoin halving. I believe that this presents a unique opportunity and will be using the previous cycle as the primary tool for my analysis. During the last cycle the LTC:BTC pair peaked a mere 3 days after the halving day. In this instance buying the hype and selling the news worked like a charm. I am inclined to think that the same thing will happen again. We can draw a trendline using the low of May 24th and June 3rd which provides strong confirmation of the price and time target. If the price respects that trendline over the next 2 months then it would take the price to the top of the bull channel at 0.026 very shortly after the LTC halving occurs. This is what is illustrated in the original chart with the first dotted maroon arrow that goes from May 24th to slightly after August 5th. At that point I would be expecting a sharp reversal which takes the exchange rate back to the bottom of the channel which waits at 0.011. In 2015 Litecoin halved 1 year before BTC. The LTC:BTC pair started selling off immediately after the LTC halving. The selloff continued for 9 months after BTC halved. To me it makes sense that very similar action will happen again. Overall that would actually be very bullish for Litecoin. It would create a third higher high and higher low since 2017, which would illustrate LTC appreciating long term versus BTC. From a fundamental perspective I cannot understand why Litecoin would appreciate versus Bitcoin...LTC's main value proposition is faster / cheaper payments. If faster / cheaper payments was the utility of cryptocurrency then it would be doomed for failure. Services like Paypal and Venmo will always be faster and cheaper than blockchain oriented protocols. That is because decentralization is costly and is only needed for one very important purpose: deflationary supply. The cost of decentralization is not economical for cheap / fast payments but it is entirely vital for sound money and / or a reserve currency. Bitcoin is just that and therefore has the ability to challenge the US Dollar and Gold as the preferred reserve currency. Litecoin promises cheaper and faster payments which means that it competes with Paypal and Venmo. 'Competes' is quite generous because the latter services are far superior at delivering that value prop. In the long run (10 years +) I expect Bitcoin to out-return Litecoin by a very large margin due to the fundamentals outlined above. Nevertheless the technicals are screaming at me that Litecoin will outperform Bitcoin in short term (weeks - months). For short and medium term price movements I trust in the technicals above everything else. Therefore I am comfortable trading BTC for LTC and / or longing LTC:BTC over the next ~8 weeks. As soon as the LTC halving occurs I will be covering LTC:BTC longs and trading spot LTC for BTC. With all that being said right now doesn't look like the best opportunity to long LTC:BTC. It is wicking of the top of the bull channel while the 4h ADX is overbought. This tells me that a minor correction is coming. A pullback to 0.014 would be a tremendous buying opportunity imo. There would be a confluence of support from the bottom of the bull channel, horizontal support and from Moving Averages. I have already started to enter due to the Daily chart (confirmed ih&s + green 2 above green 1). However I am also expecting a small pullback to 0.014 and will be prepared to add if that happens.
Long
by Sawcruhteez
16