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AAPL Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: > 237.23 Volume: > 62.63M Target: 269.15 area (this is an area, no guarantee it reaches this price, you should be selling on the way up) Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; Based on an entry of 237.24, 221.14 gets you 2/1 Reward to Risk Ratio. This LONG swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not enter a trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by tradepatiently
5
SQ Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: when price clears 67.62 Volume: with daily volume greater than 9.27M Target: 73.5 area Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 65.66 gets you 3/1 Risk/Reward. This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
NYSE:SQLong
by tradepatiently
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * JOBS REPORT WATCH . The Employment Situation is released tomorrow (08/05) at 830am (EST) and markets seem to be rallying as if unemployment is going to stay flat or go up insignificantly. If this scenario plays out, it will be interesting considering labor force participation continues to trend down from March , weekly jobless claims went up , there's been a notable increase in layoffs over the past few months and many corporations announced they are going to slow hiring through the end of the year. Equities continue their rally with the S&P posting its biggest bounce of the year (13%) since its June 16th low, reflecting that consumer sentiment regarding inflation, supply chains, FFR and Russia/China is very optimistic heading into 2023. Yesterday, OPEC+ agreed to raise output by 100,000bpd starting in September, compared to the ~600,000bpd increases in July and August this sent the price of Oil back up heading into September; which is likely to result in more inflationary pains for consumers. Taiwanese news agencies have reported that China has been conducting the closest military drills yet and have launched a record number of cyberattacks at Taiwan since Pelosi's visit . Blackrock will be offering crypto to their ~200 institutional investors through Coinbase Prime and Coinbase partnered with Meta to allow for NFTs to be shared on Instagram from Coinbase Wallet ; both of these reports sent COIN up 45% in today's session and probably made Cathie Wood shite her pant$ after selling 1.133m shares at ~$55 last week (Price is currently ~$88). The Atlanta Fed released their third Q3 GDP estimate and it came in higher than the last going from 1.3% to 1.4%. Apparently today the White House joined the WHO in labeling Monkeypox a public health emergency . Key dates: July Jobs Report at 830am (EST) 08/05; July CPI at 830am (EST) 08/10; 4th Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP Estimate 08/10; July PPI at 830am (EST) 08/11.* Price is currently testing $4175 resistance as it awaits the Jobs Report tomorrow morning. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers in two of the past three sessions, indicating that $4175 resistance is seeing quite a bit of selling pressure. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at ~$4k (-3% from current Price), this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is trending down slightly at 65 after forming a peak at 66, this is currently exhibiting mild Bearish Divergence from Price; a potential Double Top formation is also forming just below 68 resistance which is something to watch for. Stochastic remains bearish but is currently attempting to cross over bullish at 93; the next support is at 76. MACD remains bullish for the 41st consecutive session and is currently trending up at 65 with no signs of peak formation; it is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up at 22 as price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break above $4175 resistance then it will likely retest the 200 MA + the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest $4100 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at $4k psychological support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 88% SPX, 12% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . The BEA reported June PCE numbers this morning and both came in higher than last month: Core PCE (sans Food and Energy) came in at 4.8% vs 4.7% last month (also had a 4.7% consensus estimate) and PCE Index came in at 6.8% (20 year high) vs 6.3% in the previous two months. Although the move in Core PCE wasn't too significant, it's the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation which leaves the possibility of a 75bps hike in September on the table. BLS reported Q2 ECI numbers and compensation stayed relatively flat while wages/salaries increased and benefits decreased compared to Q1, this is perhaps indicative of businesses cutting perks and profit sharing in exchange for higher wages to lure in talent during an inflation induced consumer slowdown. Compensation, Wages/Salary and Benefits all went down for State and Local Government employees. The U of M Sentiment Survey came in at 51.5, a 3% gain from last month's (50); if next month's is higher, this would imply that consumers are becoming more optimistic about the worst being behind us in 2022. The Atlanta Fed posted their first GDPNow Q3 estimate and to the surprise of many they anticipate a quarter of +2.1% GDP growth. Earnings this quarter are so far proving to be resilient as well and provide additional confidence for investors going into Q3. Equities, Cryptos, Gold and Oil are up while VIX, DXY, and Treasuries are down as more investors begin to transition to risk-on with hopes that the worst is behind us. Though I still think it's premature to assume money markets have bottomed until after September, there is a lot of upside potential here compared to downside.* Price is continuing the FOMC rally and is currently trending up at $4130 as it approaches a test of $4175 resistance (which is a critical resistance). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3862, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up and beginning to form a soft peak at 66 as it approaches 68.42 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently breaking above 33 resistance and trending up at 42.65 with no sign of peak formation, the next resistance is at 55. ADX is currently trending up at 18 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely test $4175 major resistance before potentially testing the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely test $4k psychological support before potentially retesting $3938 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $4k.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . Sentiment has switched to bearish in light of the incoming economic data this week (FFR rate hike announcement, first Q2 GDP estimate, PCE inflation index) as well as a big week of 'recession-fear inducing' earnings: Walmart missed by 12% on earnings and saying earnings should fall by 11%-13% this year due to less consumer demand; Alphabet missed on both EPS and Revenue but beat on Ad Revenue (unlike SNAP, TWTR and MSFT) which has it rallying after-hours; Microsoft also missed on both EPS and Revenue, but more importantly it missed on Personal Computing and Intelligent Cloud (Azure) revenue estimates which has Microsoft currently down 3% after hours. One of the few variables that are keeping the NBER from declaring the economy to be in a recession is a strong consumer (referring to retail sales, real PCE, personal income and credit quality). Though retail sales increased in June, if real PCE comes in lower on 07/29 then retail sales are due to fall as people shift to savings-and-necessities mode to mitigate inflation and recession effects. Real PCE appears to have formed a peak in April at $13950b, the May reading (current) was $13895b and the June reading is scheduled for release on 07/29; judging by earnings and what people historically do in recessions (consume less), it's sensible to infer that real PCE will likely come in lower on 07/29. Real personal income excluding transfers continues to trend higher as of May with a new ATH of $14501b; considering that the 11 year bull market in stock markets and 11 year decline in unemployment was largely due to historically low interest rates and QE, it would be reasonable to expect a downward correction in personal income (and hiring) that now that all the 'excess' capital available to businesses is significantly less. Although Consumer Credit increased by 5.9% in May compared to 9.7% in April, credit outstanding continues to go up with inflation; this is showing signs of increasing financial burdens being experienced by the consumer. Walmart, Alphabet and Microsoft all missed on their earnings but Alphabet benefited from being the only one of SNAP, TWTR and MSFT to beat on Advertising Revenue estimates. Key dates this week: FOMC Statement 2pm (EST) 07/27, META earnings after-hours 07/27, First Q2 GDP estimate 830am (EST) 07/28, AMZN & AAPL earnings after-hours 07/28, PCE index inflation and Real PCE excluding transfers at 830am (EST) 07/29.* Price is currently testing a critical support juncture where the 50 MA + lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 + $3938 minor support all converge; due to the importance of this support level it's prudent to not be too bearish until support is officially lost. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is fairly balanced between buyers and sellers in the last few sessions, indicative of a critical juncture. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3796, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 52 with no signs of trough formation as it tests 52.68 support. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently testing 76 support with no signs of trough formation. MACD remains bullish and is currently forming a soft peak at 10.73 minor resistance, this is happening as the Signal line turns -11.45 to support. ADX continues to trend down and is currently at 15 with no signs of trough formation as Price continues its attempt to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at this trifecta of support (50 MA + lower trendline of descending channel from August 2021 + $3938 minor support) then it will likely retest $4175 resistance . However, if Price breaks down below here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 at ~$3880 before potentially heading lower to retest $3707 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * June Housing Starts came in lower than May (1.591M) at 1.559M and under the consensus estimate of 1.58M, implying that the housing market is starting to cool off as new home buyers appear to be increasingly fearful of a "technical" recession this year. June Building Permits came in fractionally lower than in May (1.695M) at 1.685M and over the consensus estimate of 1.65M, though not as significant of a reduction from the prior month this too is indicative of a housing market cool down in the second half of 2022. Both numbers can still be revised up or down but as it stands now, the demand cool down in the housing market is mildly bullish because it shows that the Fed's hawkish monetary policy is having its intended effect on markets. More clarity will be provided regarding whether or not this points to a recession when the July Jobs report (Employment Situation) is released at 830am (EST) on 08/05/22. Q2 earnings season has gotten off to a bullish start with banks (BOA, Citi) and certain pharmaceutical (J&J) and consumer retail (Hasbro) companies beating estimates but forecasts for the second half of the year remain cloudy. The Senate is scheduled to vote on the CHIPS for America Act today and, with some potential modifications, is expected to pass it by this week or next (if you used the Pelosi indicator congratulations on this one). Russia has apparently been seen restarting gas flows from Russia to Germany (after "scheduled maintenance") via the Nord Stream pipeline but at a reduced capacity; Russia claims that delays in repairs of a turbine sent to Canada are reasons for a 40% cut in capacity but German officials are saying that the turbine is just a replacement part that was supposed to be installed in September. Cryptos, Equities, Oil, Treasuries and the Euro are up today while DXY, VIX and Agriculture are down and Gold is relatively flat. In other news, on Bloomberg TV today, SEC Chair Gary Gensler once again floated the idea of banning payment for order flow and made mention of rampant noncompliance in the crypto industry that will be of chief importance to the SEC in the coming months.* Price is currently testing the 50 MA + lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 as resistance at $3938 minor resistance; additionally, Price closed above the uptrend line from 06/16 (~$3900) which currently gives PA a bullish tilt. Volume remains Moderate and after today's green close has favored buyers in seven of the last ten sessions; this is bullish. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3721, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 55 as it technically tests 53 resistance; the next resistance is at 68. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 76 resistance with no signs of peak formation, the next resistance after that is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -21 as it approaches a retest of -11 resistance (last time it retest -11 was 06/08); additionally, MACD is on the verge of reestablishing support at the uptrend line from March 2020 (~-35). ADX is currently trending down at 17 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX is able to bounce here as Price continues higher, this would be bullish. If Price is able to break above $3938 resistance and turn it to support (it's already breaking above the 50 MA), the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance . However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially heading lower to $3500 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3906.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Aston Martin inverse H&S, time to buy????Seeing a pattern of head and shoulders forming. If we do not make new lows, then we can start buying. RSI divergence present. Buy on smaller time frame inside trading hours with samll risk. Allows better risk-reward and to get in on the long earlier. Then of course the break of the 200SMA and neckline. Target 800. Stop will be below the recent swing. Aston Martin had quite a disastrous IPO, from 1916 high down to 370 low. Investors were waiting for the price to be low enough to start buying. Good Luck!
LSE:AML
by Antonio_trader
4