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TSLA | TESLA is OvervaluedTesla, Inc.'s second quarter earnings confirm our view that the stock is one of the most overvalued stocks in the market. Tesla's stock has been rising this year amid a sudden shift in overall market sentiment, with many investors now pricing in a soft-landing scenario after a brutal past year of Federal Reserve rate hikes. But the shift in market sentiment doesn't change the fact that Tesla's stock fundamentals are completely disconnected from reality. Tesla is a terribly overvalued stock that we think is worth closer to $26 per share instead of its current price of about $290 per share. While Tesla is profitable, its profits are nowhere near the levels needed to justify its current valuation. We recognize that Tesla's business generates an impressive return on invested capital (ROIC), which is a key measure of profitability, especially for an automaker. However, that ROIC is already declining in the trailing-twelve-month (TTM) period. Using our reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model, we find that for the stock to have any upside at current levels, Tesla must improve its ROIC to levels not achieved by even the most profitable businesses in the world . Figure 1 shows Tesla's historical ROIC along with the future ROIC implied by its current stock price. We provide the assumptions behind this DCF scenario later in this report. Tesla's latest earnings continue to show that it is not immune to competitive challenges and will likely see lower profitability in the future. But, its valuation implies the opposite. Any investor with fiduciary duties should be aware of the growing disconnect between Tesla's current fundamentals and the future fundamentals implied by its stock price. Even in an optimistic future cash flow scenario, shares could trade as low as $26/share. All the details are below. Supply Constrained Argument Is Gone: Bulls have long argued that demand for Tesla vehicles has always exceeded the supply of vehicles. However, Tesla's multiple price cuts in 2023, along with its lackluster production levels through the first half of 2023, raise questions about just how much demand there is for Tesla vehicles, especially amid competition from rivals Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and virtually every other automaker. Q2 2023 marks Tesla's fifth consecutive quarter in which vehicles produced were greater than vehicles delivered. Tesla is no longer selling every vehicle it can make. Should demand for EVs slow, Tesla could find itself with higher than wanted inventory levels, which could lead to further price cuts and additional pressure on already falling margins. Continued Cash Burn: Despite Tesla's top line growth, it continues to burn massive amounts of cash. Over the past five years, Tesla has burned a cumulative $4.2 billion in free cash flow (FCF), including $3.6 billion over the trailing-twelve months (TTM) alone. Tesla has generated negative FCF in all but one year (2019) of its existence as a public company. Margin Decline: Tesla's "GAAP gross margin" was 18.2% in 2Q23, down from 19.3% in 1Q23 and 25.0% in 2Q22. 2Q23's GAAP gross margin was below expectations of 18.7% and remains at its lowest level since 4Q20. Tesla's operating margin is also moving the wrong direction as it scales up. After selling 211 thousand more vehicles in 2Q23 compared to 2Q22, Tesla's reported operating margin fell 493 basis points YoY in 2Q23. Tesla noted in its press release that reduced average selling prices were one of the items that impacted margins in the quarter. We would expect Tesla's margins to fall further as competition limits pricing power across the industry. While Tesla has rapidly ramped up vehicle production and deliveries, its market share must increase almost exponentially to justify the expectations baked into its stock price. However, as it stands, Tesla holds a meager share of the global auto industry, and its share of the EV market ranks behind incumbents across Europe and China. In Europe, based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds a 12% share of the EV market, much lower than VW Group (20%) and Stellantis (STLA) at (14%).In China, also based on sales from May 2023, Tesla holds 9% of the EV market compared to a staggering 38% share for top competitor BYD. Bulls have long argued that Tesla isn't just an automaker, but rather a technology company with multiple verticals such as insurance, solar power, housing, and, yes, robots. We've long refuted these bull dreams. Regardless of the promises of developing multiple business lines, Tesla's business remains concentrated in its auto segment. Auto revenue accounted for 86% of Tesla's TTM revenue as of 2Q23.Tesla can no longer enjoy its first mover advantage as many other major automakers are producing electric vehicles. These competitors have more experience in auto production and more resources and cash flow than Tesla to invest in the electric vehicle market. Tesla is at risk of losing market share to its competitors in the electric vehicle space and its stock price is currently not reflecting that, which is a major risk for investors. Since bottoming out at the beginning of the year, the stock has come up almost 200%, stopping just shy of $300. One could say the recent selloff is due to the earnings, but technical analysis would have suggested that a selloff was due even before the earnings. Firstly, we can see that a significant bearish divergence has been building in the RSI since June. Furthermore, we have been nearing an important area of trade as highlighted by the red rectangle. The $300 level has been a key area of trade, and you’d expect to see some resistance. So if a pullback has begun where can we expect it to end? As I see it, we have formed an initial ABC structure from the lows in wave 1 of a five-wave impulse. This means that wave ii could now take us down to the 61.8% retracement of this rally, which lands us at $198. We can see that this is also a very important area of support, as shown by the Visible Range Volume Profile. And, of course, we have the 200 day Moving Average offering support around this level, too.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by moonypto
MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES _Channel Target Reached +310% PROFITMITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, last 16 years Consolidated or Side Waves from July 2007 to May 2023. This side waves formed like a Channel Pattern. Which means, market price range between Two Parallel lines. Connect these up's and downs respectively (1,3,5) and (2,4). In 5th point market Breakout above the Channel Pattern, so hereafter market expect significantly Wild movement in Uptrend. And Channel Width is the Target Size. So if you Buy and hold in May 2023, then Sell in July 2024. We got the 243 % PROFIT within 14 months only. This is one of better opportunity Trade in Stock Market by using Patterns Technique. One more Target inside this Channel Pattern. Falling Channel Pattern formed inside this Channel. It connect (a,c,e) and (b,d). In March 2022 Breakout & Buy in point of 'e', Sell in June 2022. Got the 66 % PROFIT. So TOTALLY 310% PROFIT within 29 months in this Stock only. For example if you are invested 10 Lakhs, then you would have received 30.10 Lakhs PROFIT.
TSE:7011
by SasikumarMani
HUDCO (NSE) Bullish Trend with Potential BreakoutHUDCO is showing a strong bullish trend with consistent trendline support. The recent breakout above the resistance level indicates a potential upward movement. Fundamental View: Strong EPS and healthy profit margins HUDCO may be included under Section 54EC of the Income Tax Act, which offers capital gains tax exemptions on specific bonds, providing a tax-saving advantage for investors Trade Setup: Stop Loss (SL): 280 Take Profit (TP): 350 HUDCO's technical and fundamental strengths make it a promising buy. Follow us to get the latest updates.
NSE:HUDCOLong
by GlobalMarketGuru
Cava Group (CAVA) AnalysisRapid Expansion and Market Growth: Cava Group NYSE:CAVA Group, a Mediterranean fast food chain, is rapidly growing with 323 locations and aims to reach 1,000 by 2032. This expansion could triple its annual revenue. Cava leverages AI to improve order accuracy and service speed, boosting financial performance. Financial Performance and Profitability: In Q1 2024, Cava reported a 25.2% profit margin and $19 million in operating income. Its strong unit economics suggest it can fund growth and remain profitable. Since going public, Cava's EBITDA nearly doubled in the latest quarter, showcasing financial strength. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on CAVA above the $82.00-$83.00 range. Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $125.00-$126.00, investors should consider Cava's strategic growth plans and financial robustness as key drivers for potential stock appreciation. 📊🥙 Monitor Cava Group for promising investment opportunities! #CAVA #FastFoodGrowth 📈🔍
NYSE:CAVALong
by Richtv_official
Amazon (AMZN) AnalysisE-commerce Leadership and Cloud Dominance: Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN , a global e-commerce leader, also dominates the cloud computing market with Amazon Web Services (AWS). AWS, crucial for future AI growth, offers high margins and robust recurring revenue through its rental model after initial infrastructure investment. AWS contributed 62% of Amazon's $15.3 billion operating profit in Q1, despite only accounting for 18% of sales. Strategic Investment and Future Growth: CEO guidance suggests increased capital expenditures to expand data centers for rising AI demand, promising strong future free cash flow and improved margins. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on AMZN above the $168.00-$170.00 range. Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $220.00-$230.00, investors should consider Amazon's strategic investments and dominant market positions in both e-commerce and cloud computing as key drivers for potential stock appreciation. 📊🛒 Monitor Amazon for promising investment opportunities! #AMZN #CloudComputing 📈🔍
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Richtv_official
SWING IDEA - AEGIS LOGISTICS Aegis Logistics , with its robust market presence and expertise in logistics and supply chain solutions, presents an attractive opportunity for swing traders. Reasons are listed below : Cup and Handle Pattern : Aegis Logistics is exhibiting a classic cup and handle pattern, suggesting a potential bullish continuation. Breakout and Retest : After multiple tests, the stock broke above the crucial 400 level and has now retested it successfully, indicating strong buying interest and potential upward momentum. Bullish Marubozu Candle : A bullish Marubozu candle on the weekly timeframe, engulfing four previous weekly candles, signals strong buying pressure and potential upward momentum. Attempt to Breach All-Time High : Aegis Logistics is attempting to breach its all-time high, indicating strong upward momentum and potential for further gains. 0.5 Fibonacci Support : Finding support at the 0.5 Fibonacci level reinforces the bullish outlook, providing a strong foundation for potential upward movement. Breakout from Consolidation : The stock has broken out from a consolidation phase lasting over three years, suggesting a significant shift in market sentiment and potential for sustained movement. 50 EMA Support : The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the weekly chart acts as reliable support, reinforcing the bullish bias. Increased Volumes : Notable increase in trading volumes reflects heightened market interest and potential accumulation by investors, adding confirmation to the bullish thesis. Target - 520 // 600 Stoploss - weekly close below 380 DISCLAIMER - Decisions to buy, sell, hold or trade in securities, commodities and other investments involve risk and are best made based on the advice of qualified financial professionals. Any trading in securities or other investments involves a risk of substantial losses. The practice of "Day Trading" involves particularly high risks and can cause you to lose substantial sums of money. Before undertaking any trading program, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition and ability to bear financial risks. Under no circumstances shall we be liable for any loss or damage you or anyone else incurs as a result of any trading or investment activity that you or anyone else engages in based on any information or material you receive through TradingView or our services. @visionary.growth.insights
ALong
by Visionary_Growth_Insights
2
Federal Bank Breakout: Strong Bullish MomentumFederal Bank has been following an ascending trend line, indicating a consistent upward movement. Recently, the stock has broken out above this trend line with significant volume, confirming a bullish momentum. Breakouts from such patterns typically signal strong potential for further upward movement. Trade Setup: SL: 177 TP: 195 This setup provides a strategic entry with well-defined risk management to capitalize on the bullish trend in Federal Bank.
NSE:FEDERALBNKLong
by GlobalMarketGuru
Glenmark Pharma (NSE) Bullish Trend with Resistance BreakGlenmark Pharma has demonstrated strong bullish momentum, breaking above a significant resistance level at 1263.20. The uptrend is supported by a well-defined ascending trendline, indicating continued upward movement. The stock's volume has also shown a noticeable increase during the breakout, further confirming the bullish sentiment. Trade Setup: Stop Loss (SL): 1250 Take Profit (TP): 1400 Glenmark Pharma's technical breakout, supported by increased volume and a strong uptrend, makes it a promising buy. Follow us to get the latest updates.
NSE:GLENMARKLong
by GlobalMarketGuru
Nvidia - Massive rejection soon!NASDAQ:NVDA is clearly overextended after the +1.000% rally and ready for a correction. Trees simply do not grow to the sky. And neither do stocks, especially Nvidia. I know that a lot of people are calling price targets of $250 and beyond, but we still have to respect gravity and the nature of fear and greed. Nvidia is simply overextended a retesting a 6 year resistance trendline. I do expect a correction between -20% and -30%, but also -60% is definitely possible. Levels to watch: $120, $50 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
50