Stocktrading
ELI LILLY: The time to buy and target 1,300 is now.Eli Lilly is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.409, MACD = -5.160, ADX = 28.927) and this is technically the most efficient level to buy for the long term towards the end of the year, as the price is sitting around its 1W MA50. The macro pattern is a Channel Up starting back in March 2019 and every time this broke under the 1W MA50 (but remained supported above the 1W MA100) and consolidated, it was the most efficient long term buy signal. In 6 years this has only happened 4 times and all those times the 1W RSI hit the 38.750 S1 level. The immediate target of all bullish waves that started after such bottoms, has been the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Go long, TP = 1,300.
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Alibaba (BABA) Share Price Declines from 40-Month HighAlibaba (BABA) Share Price Declines from 40-Month High
As shown in the Alibaba (BABA) share chart, the price reached a 40-month high this week, surpassing $145 per share.
Bullish sentiment is being fuelled by news related to AI prospects in China. According to media reports:
→ China’s AI spending is increasing through investments from state-owned enterprises, private companies, and local authorities, aiming to keep pace with the US $500 billion Star Gate project.
→ Alibaba plans to invest $52 billion over three years in artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
Technical Analysis of Alibaba (BABA) Shares
Despite a positive fundamental backdrop, the chart signals potential concerns:
→ The price is near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which could act as resistance.
→ Bulls attempted to break the $145 level (which has acted as resistance since late February) on 17 March but failed, as the price could not hold above this mark.
→ Using your preferred oscillator, you are likely to observe a bearish divergence between peaks A and B.
This suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening, and investors could consider taking profits after Alibaba’s exceptionally strong price rally—up approximately 70% since early 2025. If so, a break below the orange trendline could lead to a correction towards the median of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
BHARAT FORGE: INVERSE H&SThe Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern is a bullish reversal chart pattern that signals a potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. It consists of three key components:
Structure of the Pattern:
Left Shoulder: A price decline followed by a temporary rally.
Head: A deeper decline forming the lowest point, followed by another rally.
Right Shoulder: A decline similar in size to the left shoulder but not as deep as the head, followed by a move higher.
Neckline: A resistance level that connects the highs of the two rallies after the left shoulder and head.
The Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in Bharat Forge, with a neckline at ₹1100, indicates a potential bullish reversal. The stock has formed a well-defined left shoulder, head, and right shoulder, suggesting that selling pressure is weakening. A breakout above ₹1100, supported by strong volume, could confirm the pattern and trigger an upward move. The target price for this breakout is ₹1200, calculated by measuring the distance from the head’s low to the neckline and projecting it upwards. If the stock sustains above the neckline, it could gain further momentum. However, traders should consider placing a stop-loss below the right shoulder to manage risk in case of a failed breakout.
NETFLIX: Strong buy opportunity with this 1D MA100 bounce.Netflix is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.399, MACD = -10.400, ADX = 30.636) and is rebounding on the 1D MA100. This is another HL on the 20 month Channel Up, which should be enough to give the stock a push to a new HH. The Channel Up is on its 3rd main bullish wave and both prior saw a +121.52% price increase. We expect the 3rd one to be completed by July. The trade is long, TP = 1,200.
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PayPal - Multiple Signals Pointing to a Potential Bottom!I’ve just entered a position in PayPal, and the reason is that several overlapping factors are lining up in a way that suggests a potential bottom may be in.
First, it looks very likely that Wave (2) is complete. The stock tapped the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with precision and has held that level over the past few days – all while the RSI has been climbing, which is a strong bullish divergence signal in my book.
Second, PayPal just touched last year’s VWAP level perfectly, which I view as another strong technical indicator for a potential reversal.
How far this move could go is still unclear, but the open gap above is definitely something I’m watching closely. For that to be in play, $71 needs to be reclaimed. And from here on, $66 should not be touched again.
That’s my plan – and that’s how I’m trading it. Let’s see if the market plays along.
TG Therapeutics (TGTX) – Biotech Innovation & Global ExpansionCompany Overview:
TG Therapeutics NASDAQ:TGTX is a biotech leader focused on novel cancer and autoimmune treatments, gaining momentum as an IBD Leaderboard and IBD 50 Top 10 Growth Stock.
Key Catalysts:
Regulatory Approvals & Expansion 🌍
BRIUMVI secured approvals in Europe & the UK, unlocking new revenue streams in key markets.
Strong Profitability & Growth 💰
88.3% gross margin ensures sustainable reinvestment into R&D and future pipeline advancements.
High-Growth Stock Recognition 📊
Technical strength is validated by its inclusion in top-performing stock lists, signaling strong investor confidence.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on TGTX above $34.00-$35.00, driven by global expansion, financial strength, and biotech leadership.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $55.00-$56.00, supported by continued innovation and market penetration.
🔥 TG Therapeutics – Pioneering the Future of Cancer Treatment. #TGTX #Biotech #GrowthStocks
My take on XRP for Vecino Peache.XRP is currently testing the 50 EMA on the daily time frame, a strong resistance level. Throughout February, it made multiple attempts to break above but failed. This suggests a possible correction. A confirmed break below the 200 EMA on the daily chart would further validate this bearish outlook.
My take; I have an OTZ (Optimal Trade Zone) on the 4-hour time frame, which acts as a strong support level. If price breaks below this zone, it signals a potential shift in market direction. As long as XRP respects this support, I will trade it conservatively.
Let me know what are your thoughts on my take.
BROADCOM: Is this a legit recovery on the 1D MA200?AVGO is almost neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.867, MACD = -8.280, ADX = 49.944) as it has stabilized following a direct contact with the 1D MA200. That was the first time the price hit that level since the September 9th 2024 low. This is also a technical HL at the bottom of the 9 month Channel Up, while also the 1D RSI is rebounding on its S1 Zone. The Sep 9th 2024 rebound hit its upper R1 level, so our worst case target is 250 (TP1), while the November 27th 2024 low rose by +59.97%, which gives a best case target of 285 (TP2).
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Bitcoin, S&P, Gold: Market Decline & DivergenceThe intricate dance of financial assets often reveals hidden correlations and predictive patterns. Recently, the synchronized decline of Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has raised concerns, while gold's historic rally has left Bitcoin trailing. However, a deeper dive into the data suggests a potential turnaround, hinting at a shift in market dynamics.
For much of the past few years, Bitcoin has exhibited a strong correlation with the S&P 500, behaving as a risk-on asset.1 When the stock market surged, Bitcoin often followed suit, and conversely, market downturns typically coincided with Bitcoin's price depreciation. This correlation stems from shared macroeconomic drivers, such as interest rate expectations, inflation concerns, and overall investor sentiment. The recent parallel decline reflects anxieties surrounding persistent inflation, potential interest rate hikes, and geopolitical uncertainties.
However, this synchronized movement doesn't tell the whole story. While Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have been grappling with downward pressure, gold has embarked on a remarkable rally, reaching unprecedented heights. This surge is fueled by several factors, including substantial inflows into gold ETFs, escalating geopolitical tensions, and heightened market volatility. Gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset has been reaffirmed, as investors seek refuge from the turbulence in equity and cryptocurrency markets.
The divergence between Bitcoin and gold is particularly striking. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a metric that reflects the relative value of Bitcoin compared to gold, has broken a 12-year support level. This breach signals a significant shift in investor preference, with gold emerging as the dominant asset. The recent climb of gold to a hypothetical $3,000 mark (or equivalent in other currencies) further underscores this trend, demonstrating its resilience in the face of economic uncertainty.
The observed pattern of Bitcoin breaking its multiyear uptrend against gold bears a striking resemblance to the market behavior witnessed between March 2021 and March 2022. During that period, Bitcoin experienced a similar decline relative to gold, ultimately leading to a substantial drop in its dollar value. This fractal pattern suggests that Bitcoin may be poised for further depreciation, potentially falling below the $65,000 mark.
However, it's crucial to acknowledge that historical patterns are not infallible predictors of future performance. Market dynamics are constantly evolving, and unforeseen events can significantly alter the trajectory of asset prices. While the current data points towards a potential decline for Bitcoin, there are countervailing factors that could trigger a reversal.
One such factor is the increasing institutional adoption of Bitcoin. As more institutional investors allocate a portion of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies, the market may become less susceptible to short-term fluctuations driven by retail sentiment. Moreover, the long-term potential of Bitcoin as a decentralized store of value remains a compelling narrative for many investors.
Additionally, the regulatory landscape surrounding cryptocurrencies is gradually becoming clearer. As governments and regulatory bodies establish frameworks for the operation of digital asset markets, investor confidence may improve, leading to renewed interest in Bitcoin. The upcoming Bitcoin halving is also anticipated to reduce the supply of new Bitcoin entering the market, which could potentially drive up its price.
While the current correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 may persist in the short term, the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin suggest a potential decoupling in the long run. As the cryptocurrency market matures and gains wider acceptance, its correlation with traditional asset classes may weaken.
The recent divergence between Bitcoin and gold highlights the importance of diversifying investment portfolios. While gold has proven its resilience in times of uncertainty, Bitcoin offers the potential for substantial returns in the long term. Investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and investment objectives when allocating capital to these assets.
The breakdown of the Bitcoin to gold ratio is a concerning indicator, however, the cryptocurrency world moves quickly. The market is driven by new innovation, and adoption. The market has been known to have large pullbacks, followed by even larger rallies. The current market may be pricing in a large amount of fear, and a simple change in the news cycle could cause a large change in the price of bitcoin.
In conclusion, the current market dynamics present a complex picture. The synchronized decline of Bitcoin and the S&P 500, coupled with gold's historic rally, suggests a potential downturn for Bitcoin. However, the long-term potential of Bitcoin, coupled with increasing institutional adoption and a maturing regulatory landscape, could trigger a reversal. Investors should remain vigilant, monitor market trends, and make informed decisions based on a comprehensive understanding of the underlying fundamentals. The data suggests a potential turn around, but only time will tell if the market will comply.
Amd - Please Look At The Structure!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is about to retest massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For about 5 years Amd has been trading in a decent rising channel formation. That's exactly the reason for why we saw the harsh drop starting in the beginning of 2024. But as we are speaking, Amd is about to retest a massive confluence of support which could lead to a beautiful reversal.
Levels to watch: $100
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
A Huge Technical Re-Test of This Important TL Has Just Occurred!Trading Family,
Tariff FUD is recking traders rn. After breaking important support which started in Nov. '24, I knew the SPY was in trouble. My first target down was 563. We hit that and broke it. My second target down was 550. We are there right now! Will it hold? I don't know. TBH, I don't think any analyst that is honest knows. Investors have never seen Tariffs levied like they have been recently by the Trump admin. Noone really knows how this is going to impact the current economy, which is now global (big diff from the last U.S. tariff econ in the late 1800's).
But I can say that this is a big support which is the neckline of our large long-term Cup and Handle pattern started all the way back in Jan. of 2022! We did have one retest already. Usually, this is all that is needed. But apparently, the market wants another. Though the support is strong, remember, every time it is tagged, it weakens. Thus, if it can't hold this current downturn, I suspect it will drop hard from here should it break, possibly dropping all the way to 460. Be prepared for this and watch your trendline closely!
On the other hand, if it holds, I see a huge bounce incoming! We'll probably then go all the way back up to test the underside of that support (red with two with lines) that we broke. Hold on to your hats! We are living in unprecedented times with unprecedented market volatility.
The last item to note is that, once again, this all seems to be occurring at the same time that U.S. congress and senate are voting on a continuing resolution. Correlation does not necessarily equal causation however, in this case, I would suggest that should a U.S. gov't shutdown occur, our support will break and down we'll go. Should a CR pass, big bounce incoming. Stay tuned and watch the news closely for this. It seems to be a news driven event.
✌️ Stew
AMD: Bottomed and can rally by as much as +140%.AMD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.266, MACD = -4.630, ADX = 52.178) but technically appears to be forming a new multi-month bottom after exactly 1 year of downside. The 1D RSI hit the S1 level, which priced the October 10th 2022 bottom. The outcome of that bottom was a +142.42% rally, same as the October 23rd 2023 Low, whose +142.42% rally formed the March 2024 ATH. This time this week's low has come very close to the S1 level, which is the strongest support level on the long term. A new potential +142.42% rally from the current levels would make a marginal ATH (TP = 230) and that's our current target for the end of the year.
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TESLA: Oversold but correction my not be over yet.Tesla is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 25.606, MACD = -36.970, ADX = 56.250) but the correction may not be over. The brutal bearish wave since the December 18th 2024 ATH may technicall bottom on the HL trendline, despite having breached the 0.618 Fibonacci yesterday. That is because the April 22nd 2024 bottom was also priced below the 0.618 Fib, even under the S1 Zone. In order to buy confidently again for the long term, we need to see the 1D RSI forming HL again. We expect to see TESLA within the 200 - 190 range before a rebound takes place and then our long term target would be near the HH trendline, TP = 650.
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NVIDIA: Megaphone bottomed. Rally to $195 starting.NVIDIA is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 34.183, MACD = -6.220, ADX = 39.717) as it reach the bottom (LL) trendline of the Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since November 21st 2024. This is not the first time we see NVDA inside such Megaphone pattern. As a matter of fact, it was during July-October 2023 when it last did so. The 3rd LL was the buy signal and it coincided with a Triple Bottom on the 1D RSI. This is the exact position we are at right now. The stock has completed three lows below the 1D MA50 and looks ready to rebound with force. The smallest recent rally has been +86.41%. The trade is long, TP = 195.00.
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TSLA’s Failed Breakout: Reversal or Deeper Drop Ahead?Tesla (TSLA) Market Outlook & Long-Term Investment Report
Tesla (TSLA) has positioned itself as more than just an electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer. With its advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous driving, and energy solutions, Tesla is becoming a major player in multiple high-growth industries. While recent price action has shown volatility, long-term investors see buying opportunities at key support levels.
Technical Analysis & Key Levels
1. High-Timeframe Context (HTF)
- HTF Resistance: $415.71 – Tesla attempted to break above this level but faced rejection, leading to a sharp pullback.
- Major Support & Resistance Zone – A critical level where Tesla has previously consolidated and reacted strongly.
- Liquidity Zones (LQZs):
- Daily LQZ (~$238.18) – A key demand area where buyers could step in.
- Weekly LQZ (~$182.44 - $108.01) – A deeper liquidity zone, potentially offering even better long-term buying opportunities if the downtrend continues.
2. Market Structure & Trend Analysis
- **Failed Breakout:** Price action showed a breakout above resistance, but the failure to hold led to a sharp reversal, indicating a potential liquidity grab.
- **Retest of Support:** The price is currently testing a significant support level, which will determine the next move.
- **Momentum Shift:** The aggressive rejection at HTF resistance suggests sellers are in control in the short term, but this creates long-term entry opportunities.
Long-Term Investment Thesis
Tesla's expansion into AI, robotics, and autonomous technology presents significant long-term growth potential beyond its traditional automotive business. Here are the key areas driving Tesla's future:
1. Robotics & Artificial Intelligence
- **Tesla Optimus Robot:** Tesla’s humanoid robot project is expected to revolutionize industrial automation. It could become a major revenue source as industries move toward AI-driven labor solutions.
- **Neural Networks & AI Advancements:** Tesla’s AI systems, used for Full Self-Driving (FSD), are also being adapted for robotics, increasing its competitive edge.
2. Energy & Infrastructure Expansion
- **Solar & Energy Storage:** Tesla’s **Megapack** and **Powerwall** businesses are growing as renewable energy adoption accelerates.
- **Grid-Scale Energy Solutions:** Tesla’s energy division could play a crucial role in stabilizing power grids worldwide, providing another strong revenue stream.
3. Autonomous Vehicles & FSD
- Tesla’s **Full Self-Driving (FSD)** software could create a high-margin subscription-based revenue model.
- The potential for a **Tesla Robotaxi network** could disrupt the ride-sharing industry and unlock new business models.
4. Synergies with SpaceX & AI Computing
- Tesla benefits indirectly from advancements in **SpaceX** technologies, such as materials science and AI computing.
- The **Dojo supercomputer** is being developed to enhance AI training, which could accelerate Tesla’s robotics and self-driving ambitions.
Investment Strategy & Accumulation Plan
For long-term investors, Tesla's volatility provides attractive buying opportunities. A strategic approach would involve:
1. Key Accumulation Levels
- **Daily LQZ (~$238)** – A strong support zone where Tesla could see renewed buying interest.
- **Weekly LQZ (~$182-$108)** – A deeper level that may offer excellent long-term value if the price declines further.
2. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy
- Instead of trying to time the absolute bottom, investors can **ladder buy-ins** at different liquidity zones to optimize their cost basis.
- This reduces risk and takes advantage of market dips without excessive exposure.
3. Risk Management & Long-Term Horizon
- Tesla is known for its volatility; maintaining **a long-term vision (5+ years)** is crucial for maximizing gains.
- Investors should be prepared for short-term fluctuations while focusing on Tesla’s multi-industry expansion.
Conclusion
Tesla’s failed breakout and recent pullback present a strategic buying opportunity for long-term investors. With its advancements in robotics, AI, energy, and autonomous technology, Tesla is well-positioned to be a key player in multiple trillion-dollar industries over the next decade. The current price action suggests that accumulation at liquidity zones could provide strong long-term returns.
As the robotics industry grows, Tesla’s potential as a leading producer for industrial automation is increasingly clear. Investors with a bullish long-term outlook may find current and upcoming dips as prime entry points.
Final Thought
**Is Tesla’s current dip a gift for long-term believers?** With its expanding technological footprint, this may be an opportunity to accumulate before the next major growth cycle. 🚀
AMAZON: Oversold on 1D. Massive buy opportunity.Amazon is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.320, MACD = -7.090, ADX = 63.698) and this is best displayed on the 1W timeframe where the price hit this week its 1W MA50 for the first time in 7 months. The decline since the January top is technically the bearish wave of Amazon's 2 year Channel Up. The previous HL was priced on the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the one before on the 0.382. We are now just over the 0.5 Fib again, while the 1W RSI is about to hit its LL trendline. All those form massive support levels for the stock, which translate into the best buy opportunity since the early August 2024 bottom. We are expecting a similar +59.62 bullish wave to begin. The trade is long, TP = 300.
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