Stocktrading
SPX: I still think it is bullish, but getting a bit weakAfter this week, SPX is operating within a 4% price range. The most bullish case right now would be to break the upper range next week. Most bearish case would be to break the bottom of the range. Max pain would be to just mess around within the range.
Indicators are neutral to slightly bullish on weekly timeframe. RSI is kicking up above 50 which is bullish, MACD is steady; DI is shifting positive, but not full bullish yet. Right now, not telling much.
EW perspective, wave 4 is still valid and price should be in the early phase of wave 5. This can take some time to play out since wave 5 is usually a sucker's rally that initially sets up bear traps. We are already seeing potential diagonal structures in the lower timeframes. So, to keep it simple for now, I would say for now it is wait and see how things play out. Bullish above 4385, bearish below 4215. My personal bias is still to the upside and sold puts on Friday. If Friday's low breaks on Monday then I will be out of that.
Why the S&P 3 month chart paints a scary view for Stocks We have been bearish on S&P since April 2022.
The bearish outlook is even more evident now with a HUGE DOUBLE TOP in the 3 months chart. This is the first time we have analyzed this pair in the 3 month chart and the divergence is obvious.
What does this mean for the S&P?
1) It is very unlikely it can move above 4600 to 4800 in the near future
2) There is a high probability that the pair is moving downwards. We are already in short from 4370.
3) The immediate target is 4275 but we looking at 4180 as the next target.
4) The long term target is 3600 and we will keep selling at any opportunity
In our mind, the stock market is in for a rough ride for the next 1 -2 years. Our prediction is that around 3000 by the end of 2024.
APPLE: Pullback and breakout buy levels.AAPL reached the top of the 1st Channel Down pattern, staying over the 1D MA50 on a green 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.956, MACD = 0.610, ADX = 38.858). This rise originated after nearly hitting the 1D MA200, its continuation may very well do so on the 1D MA50.
Our trading strategy is to buy if it closes a 1D candle over the dotted line and target the 2nd Channel Down and the dashed line (TP1 = 185.00). A new crossing there would target the R1 level (TP2 = 190.00). If it fails to close a candle over it and gets rejected, we will buy just inside the Demand Zone and pursue the same target set. A Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD gives an edge to the upside.
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Humana to find buyers at previous support?Humana Inc - 30d expiry - We look to Buy at 480.48 (stop at 468.48)
The primary trend remains bullish.
Bespoke support is located at 480.
Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
A break of the recent high at 503.52 should result in a further move higher.
We look to buy dips.
478.40 has been pivotal.
Our profit targets will be 510.48 and 518.48
Resistance: 503.52 / 510.00 / 515.00
Support: 486.60 / 479.35 / 470.00
Please be advised that the in formation presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
SPY Retest Complete. And Macro-Economic Ramblings of a Mad Man.Traders,
As expected, SPY bounced off of that 200-day SMA and performed a classic retest of the underside of our previous support, the neckline of our H&S. Now, the only question that remains is do the bulls have enough in them to break back above or do we remain on the underside of this neckline and potentially drop back down ...maybe even breaking the bottom of my channel (green) to proceed to our target down at $410? These questions remain unclear as of now, especially since the advent of yet another unsettling geopolitical situation and war in the Middle East. But I will watch this closely and keep you all up to speed. As of now, my bet remains that we continue upward somewhere within the boundaries of my channel even with another retest of the bottom. This supposition is mainly built upon what the dollar is doing now and will continue to do with the unprecedented allotment of U.S. dollars that will have to be printed and distributed to keep other country's wars continuing, fund the migrant costs (both direct and indirect), our regional banks afloat via guaranteed deposits, and the future economic collapse here in the U.S. that may start in commercial real estate or the housing market sector again. All of this (and we have not even introduced BRICS) will crush the dollar, eventually. Once this occurs it will take many more devalued dollars to buy a thing of worth, including stocks. More dollars to buy shares in a company will give the trading public an illusion of strength. An illusion is all that is needed. And on up we roar to complete Wave #5, the blowoff top.
Best,
Stew
NETFLIX: Buy opportunity on a 4 month stretch.NFLX is trying to find support on the 1D MA200, which is at the bottom of a (longer than a year) Bullish Megaphone pattern. The 1D technical outlook is red (RSI = 36.027, MACD = -9.900, ADX = 36.923) signifying considerable upside potential and the rebound on the 30.00 oversold RSI level indicates the reversing momentum. We expect an immediate rally as part of the new bullish leg that will target the 0.786 Fibonacci (TP = 585.00).
Prior idea:
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LYFT in a bearish channel.LYFT Inc - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 11.99 (stop at 12.91)
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation.
The sequence for trading is lower lows and highs.
The primary trend remains bearish.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
The trend of lower highs is located at 12.00.
Our profit targets will be 9.81 and 9.41
Resistance: 11.53 / 12.00 / 12.45
Support: 10.75 / 10.30 / 9.72
Please be advised that the in formation presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
ALIBABA: 1W Bullish Cross leading it to 220. Cycle repeating.Alibaba is neutral on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 46.095, MACD = -1.100, ADX = 22.119) but with the RSI on HL since March 2022. Having crossed already over the 1W MA50 and being on the verge of the first 1W MA50-100 Bullish Cross since April 2019 (and the third ever), this bullish divergence is exactly what has historically formed before BABA's two prior bottoms. The 1W MA50-100 Bullish Cross has been the buy entry signal.
It is evident that all bottom patterns are identical in the form of a Triangle. The target from top-to-bottom has been the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our long term target (TP = 220.00).
Prior idea:
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US CPI Data, Fed Rate Hike Decision Due This Week: Implications The US Customer Cost Record (CPI) information for September is due to be discharged on Wednesday, taken after by the US Government Reserve's intrigued rate choice on the same day. Both of these occasions have the potential to altogether affect the forex and stock markets.
The CPI information could be a degree of expansion, and a higher-than-expected perusing may lead to assist tightening of monetary arrangement by the Encouraged. This can be since the Bolstered is entrusted with keeping expansion in check, and it'll likely raise intrigued rates on the off chance that expansion is running too high.
A higher-than-expected CPI perusing might too lead to a sell-off in stock markets. This is often since higher intrigued rates can make it more expensive for companies to borrow cash and contribute, and it can moreover weigh on buyer investing.
The Fed's intrigued rate choice is additionally likely to have a major affect on the forex and stock markets. A 75 premise point rate climb by the Bolstered is broadly anticipated, but a larger-than-expected rate climb might lead to a sell-off in stock markets and a more grounded US dollar.
Forex Suggestions
A higher-than-expected CPI perusing or a larger-than-expected rate climb by the Nourished may lead to a more grounded US dollar. This is often since financial specialists tend to purchase secure safe house resources, such as the US dollar, when they are expecting higher intrigued rates or instability within the markets.
Stock Suggestions
A higher-than-expected CPI perusing or a larger-than-expected rate climb by the Fed may lead to a sell-off in stock markets. This is since higher interest rates can make it more costly for companies to borrow cash and contribute, and it can too weigh on customer investing.
Conclusion
The US CPI data and the Fed's intrigued rate choice are two of the foremost critical financial occasions of the week. Both of these occasions have the potential to significantly impact the forex and stock markets. Speculators are exhorted to screen these occasions closely and be arranged for instability.
Sources:
Bloomberg: "US CPI Data, Fed Rate Hike Decision Due This Week"
Reuters: "US CPI Expected to Ease in September, But Stay Elevated"
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PEPSICO: Are you willing to take that risk on the 1W MA200?PEPSICO took a strong fundamental blow yesterday, reaching remarkably oversold technical levels on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 19.097, MACD = -4.010, ADX = 44.557). On today's opening it hit the 1W MA200 for the first time since the March 2020 COVID crash. If it weren't for that crash, PEP would have never broken the long term Channel Up and today's candle would be exactly on its HL bottom.
Under the current circumstances it looks like a big risk but every time the stock crossed under the 1W MA200 and the 1W RSI got oversold (under 30.000), it was the buy opportunity of a Cycle. Those two bottoms instantly rebounded to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, so that sets a target for us at 187.00.
Are you willing to take that risk?
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Unveiling Alibaba's Secrets: A Technical Analysis of Its Future NYSE:BABA
Based on the weekly ElliotWaves analysis , BABA is currently in a corrective wave structure. The corrective wave structure is a complex wave pattern that can take many different forms. However, the most common corrective wave structure is a three-wave ABC pattern.
BABA appears to be in the wave B of the corrective wave structure. Wave B is a retracement of wave A.
We can expect to see BABA continue to move higher in the coming weeks . However, it is important to note that wave B retracements can be sharp and volatile, so we may have a final push on the downside, before the long-term uptrend begins.
Therefore, it is important to be cautious when trading BABA during the wave B retracement and a stronger price confirmation is needed.
BABA's RSI is currently at approx. 50, which is neutral territory. This suggests that BABA is neither overbought nor oversold. However, the RSI is trending higher, which suggests that BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks.
BABA's MACD is currently above its signal line, which is a bullish signal. This suggests that BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks.
Potential Direction of BABA on a Weekly Timeframe
Based on the ElliotWaves, RSI, MACD, and other technical tactics, BABA is likely to continue to move higher in the coming weeks. However, it is important to note that the market is unpredictable and there is always the possibility of a trend reversal. Therefore, it is important to be cautious when trading BABA and to use a stop-loss order to protect your profits.
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This analysis represents is based on the information at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
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ABL.N0000Buy Zone has been mentioned in above chart.
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EIHOTEL - INVEST & HOLD FOR 2 MONTHSEntry Level : 222
SL : 202
Targets : 242,256,273+
52wk High : 274.95
52wk Low : 150.35
Mkt Cap : 139.49 B
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SPX: I think it is bullishThe recent correction has everyone rattled. Debt crisis, Fed crisis, Rate crisis, Crises everywhere. On Monday Oct 2nd, market closed with a tail candle that retested 200 EMA and put in a higher low. This itself is a pretty bullish sign, albeit, nothing is certain at the moment. What we do not see is a close below 200 SMA, retest and failure. Bull case is a price movement above 4330 and eventually a break of the resistance trendline.
EW count-wise I believe minute degree wave 4 is complete, although, it can still be a triangle and keep chopping for the month of October as well. Either case, Minute 5 or Minor 3 target would be at an ATH 4827. This price action is following Fibonacci pinball to the T. Minor 4 could also take a couple more months to play out before putting in the intermediate degree wave A or 3 at little of 5k. But that is still far away. NDX is taking the lead on this recovery, which is a very good sign as well. I am going to put in my target trades probably tomorrow. Let's see how it goes!