Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x.
Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory.
Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services.
Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion.
The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools.
The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced.
While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20.
Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years.
The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum
Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company.
Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
Stocktrading
TEVA Pharmaceutical is a BUY?As the excitement around AI continues to wane, concerns about a potential US recession grow, and the risks of a major conflict in the Middle East linger, Teva Pharmaceutical's stock is entering an accumulation phase above $18, signaling strong bullish sentiment.
Why Wall Street's bullish in this drug company ?
First, on July 31, Teva announced its financial results for the second quarter of 2024, demonstrating that the company remains resilient despite years of investor disappointment following the Allergan Generics acquisition and the loss of Copaxone exclusivity.
However, over the past 18 months, under Richard Francis' leadership, the company has shown significant growth, with increasing revenue and profits in its European and US segments, the successful launch of biosimilars and Uzedy, and record sales of Austedo, its blockbuster treatment for certain neurological disorders.
Alongside rising sales of generics, Teva has also accelerated the development of innovative medications, which could set new standards in treating schizophrenia and some chronic inflammatory diseases.
For instance, on July 25, the company delighted investors by announcing that it had completed patient enrollment ahead of schedule in a Phase 2b clinical trial assessing the efficacy and safety of duvakitug for treating ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, driven by strong interest from healthcare professionals and patients.
Teva Pharmaceutical's financial performance and 2024 outlook
After years of challenges, the Teva revenue exceeded $4 billion once again, reaching $4.14 billion in the second quarter of 2024, a 7.4% year-on-year increase that surpassed consensus estimates by $114 million.
Meanwhile, another critical financial metric, earnings per share aka EPS, exceeded my expectations despite rising costs associated with conducting expensive clinical trials for assessing the efficacy of Teva's biosimilars and experimental drugs targeting neurodegenerative and autoimmune disorders. The Israeli company's EPS reached $0.61 for the three months ending June 30, 2024, marking a 27.1% increase from the previous quarter and surpassing analysts' forecasts by six cents.
What factors contribute to Teva Pharmaceutical's success?
To answer this objectively, it's essential to examine not only the impact of sales from individual medications but also to delve deeper into how effectively the company's management is handling the development of each of Teva's business segments.
We'll begin with the United States segment, which significantly influences Teva's financial standing. For the three months ending June 30, 2024, revenue in this segment reached $2.12 billion, reflecting an 11.5% year on year increase and a 22.3% rise from the previous quarter.
First, Teva's revenue and profit growth were largely fueled by significant advancements in its generics business, despite facing stiff competition from companies like Viatris (VTRS), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (RDY), Perrigo (PRGO), and others in the market.
In the second quarter, total sales of generic products reached approximately $1.03 billion, marking a 26.6% increase from the previous quarter.
What factors led to the recovery of Teva's generics business?
The resurgence of Teva's generics business in the U.S. was primarily driven by the launch of an interchangeable biosimilar to AbbVie's Humira (ABBV), rising demand for generic versions of Bristol-Myers Squibb's Revlimid (BMY), a major blockbuster for treating multiple myeloma, the generic version of Novo Nordisk's Victoza (NVO) for type 2 diabetes, and the expansion of its drug portfolio.
The soaring sales of Copaxone and the strong performance of Austedo, which I analyzed in detail in a previous article, were also notable. Despite increasing competition in the U.S. tardive dyskinesia therapeutics market from Neurocrine Biosciences' (NBIX) Ingrezza, Austedo's demand continued to grow.
Sales of the Austedo franchise reached $407 million in the second quarter of 2024, a 32.1% YOY increase, driven by expanded patient access and the FDA's late May approval of Austedo XR in four new tablet strengths, giving doctors more options for optimizing treatment regimens for adults with tardive dyskinesia and Huntington's disease-associated chorea.
I also want to highlight Uzedy, a long-acting formulation of risperidone, as another key contributor to Teva's revenue growth. Although the company launched Uzedy in May 2023 and has not yet disclosed its sales figures, it has been approved for the treatment of schizophrenia.
However, as evident from the chart below, the total number of prescriptions has been steadily increasing month over month. Teva Pharmaceutical estimates that its revenue from Uzedy will be around $80 million in 2024, exceeding my expectations by approximately $25 million.
Despite ongoing growth in demand for this anti-CGRP migraine medication, its sales amounted to $42 million in the second quarter of 2024, a decrease of 6.7% compared to the previous quarter and 19.2% year-on-year. This decline was primarily due to an increase in sales allowances linked to a one-time event.
Now, let's turn our attention to the company's Europe segment, which generates most of its revenue through sales of generics and biosimilars.
For the three months ending June 30, 2024, sales in this segment reached approximately $1.21 billion, reflecting a 4.3% year-on-year increase, driven by new product launches and growing demand for Ajovy.
However, sales of respiratory medications continue to face challenges due to a decline in cold and flu cases. As anticipated, demand for Copaxone is weakening, not only because of competition from generic versions but also due to the availability of more effective treatments for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis, such as Bristol-Myers Squibb's Zeposia, Roche Holding's Ocrevus and TG Therapeutics' Briumvi (TGTX).
Lastly, let's discuss the International Markets segment, which focuses on commercializing Teva's drugs across 35 countries, including Canada and Japan. In the second quarter, revenue for this segment was $593 million, representing a 2.6% YOY increase.
However, the segment's profit dropped significantly to $73 million quarter over quarter, due to declining demand for Copaxone, increased R&D expenses, and higher sales and marketing costs related to the distribution of Austedo in China.
The question arises: "Are there any positives?" The short answer is yes.
Teva's revenue from generic drugs has been on an upward trend in recent years, with the exception of the fourth quarter of 2023. For the three months ending June 30, 2024, it reached $488 million, marking a 2% increase from the previous quarter.
What is driving this sales growth?
Despite challenges such as the weakening of foreign currencies like the Japanese yen, ruble, and Chinese yuan against the US dollar, increased competition in Japan, and ongoing inflationary pressures on the pharmaceutical industry, Teva’s management has successfully navigated these obstacles by expanding its medication portfolio and raising prices.
Now lets talk about Risks
Several risks could negatively impact Teva Pharmaceutical’s investment appeal in the medium to long term. At the end of July, Teva reported financial results for the second quarter of 2024, which not only exceeded analysts' expectations but also reinforced confidence in the effectiveness of the business strategies implemented by CEO Richard Francis.
In addition to accelerating the recovery of the company's generics business, boosting sales of Austedo and Uzedy, and launching the Humira biosimilar in May, Teva also raised its full-year 2024 guidance.
With a P/E ratio of 6.35x, which suggests the stock is trading at a discount compared to the broader healthcare sector, other positives include the reduction of Teva’s net debt by about $2 billion over the past 12 months, as well as year-over-year growth in gross and operating profits.
To understand who truly holds control over Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, it's crucial to examine the company's ownership structure. The largest share of ownership, approximately 69%, is held by institutional investors. This means that this group stands to experience the greatest potential for gains or losses, depending on the company's performance.
The company has also accelerated the development of its product candidates under its "Pivot to Growth" program, which aims to strengthen its balance sheet and enhance its investment appeal by expanding its biosimilar portfolio and bringing potential best-in-class drugs for cancer, neurological, and autoimmune disorders to market.
So TEVA Pharmaceutical is a BUY? YUP
Trading While Tired: How Lack of Sleep Messed Me UpThere was a time in my trading journey when I thought staying up late would make me a better trader. I’d sit at my desk until the early hours, staring at charts and telling myself, “The more I watch, the more I’ll win.” At first, it seemed like it was working. I caught a few decent trades late at night and felt like I was ahead of the game.
But then, it all started to go wrong.
The Day It Hit Me
One morning, after getting just four hours of sleep, I sat down to trade like I always did. But something felt off. I couldn’t focus on the charts—I kept missing obvious patterns. On one trade, I completely forgot to set a stop-loss, and it ended up costing me more than it should have.
By the end of the day, I had made so many mistakes that I didn’t even recognize myself as a trader. I was losing money, and I felt like a mess.
What Lack of Sleep Does
Looking back, I can see how skipping sleep was hurting me. Here’s what I went through:
- I Couldn’t Think Clearly: I felt foggy and couldn’t concentrate on my trading plan.
- I Made Bad Choices: I rushed into trades without thinking them through.
- I Was Moody: Losing trades hit me harder than they should have, and little things made me angry.
- I Drank Too Much Coffee: I thought caffeine would fix my tiredness, but it just made me jittery.
- I Broke My Rules: I was too tired to follow my trading strategy.
How I Fixed It
One day, after another sleepless night and a morning full of mistakes, I decided enough was enough. I told myself I needed to change.
The first step? Making sleep a priority. At first, it was hard to turn off the charts and go to bed. I thought I’d miss out on opportunities, but the truth was the opposite. With proper rest, I became sharper, calmer, and more confident in my trades.
What I Learned
-Sleep is as important as trading skills—you can’t think clearly without it.
-Watching the charts all night doesn’t help if you’re too tired to make good decisions.
-A good night’s sleep leads to smarter, more focused trading.
Are You Trading Tired?
If you’re staying up late and feeling exhausted while trading, it’s time to change that. Trust me, your trades will get better when your brain has the energy to work properly.
If you’re stuck or want to chat about how to balance trading with a healthy lifestyle, send me a DM. I’ve been there, and I’m here to help!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
DJT: Will It Break $33.85 or $38.55 First? DJT is at a tipping point, and it could go either way. Here’s what to watch so you’re ready for the next big move.
1) If DJT Drops Below $33.85
If this level breaks, things could get rough. Here’s what might happen:
-$28–$26: This is the first stop where the price might chill for a bit.
-$10: If the selling gets heavy, this is where we could end up.
2) If DJT Pops Above $38.55
If the bulls take charge, it could be time to ride the wave higher:
A break above $38.55 could spark a nice rally and push the price upward.
What’s the Plan?
-Keep an eye on $33.85 and $38.55—they’re the magic numbers.
-Be patient and wait for a clear move before jumping in.
If this makes sense, toss me a like or follow. Got questions about DJT or another stock you’re stuck on? Hit me up in the DMs—I’m here to help.
And hey, if you’re feeling burned out or stressed about trading, let’s talk. I’m all about helping you find your balance and keeping things sustainable. Chill, stay focused, and let’s catch the next wave together!
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Archer Aviation (ACHR) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Archer Aviation NYSE:ACHR is a trailblazer in electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, aiming to transform urban air mobility (UAM) with environmentally friendly, high-tech transportation solutions. Positioned at the intersection of aviation innovation and sustainability, Archer is set to unlock massive market potential.
Key Catalysts for Growth
Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Boom:
With the UAM market projected to grow exponentially, Archer’s eVTOL technology positions it as a frontrunner in urban transportation solutions.
Increasing urbanization and the push for decarbonized transport drive demand for advanced air mobility solutions.
Strategic Partnerships:
Stellantis Partnership: Accelerates Archer’s manufacturing scale, leveraging Stellantis’ automotive production expertise to ensure efficient mass production.
Anduril Industries Collaboration: Expansion into hybrid VTOL military aircraft opens a pathway to tap into lucrative defense budgets, creating a diversified revenue stream.
Financial Backing:
Archer’s $430 million equity infusion from blue-chip investors bolsters its balance sheet, enabling sustained investment in R&D and manufacturing expansion.
Regulatory Advancements:
Progress toward FAA certification supports Archer’s goal of launching commercial eVTOL services by 2025, further enhancing market confidence.
Defense Opportunities:
Developing military-grade hybrid aircraft provides entry into a stable and high-margin sector, aligning with national defense priorities for innovation and sustainability.
Market and Financial Outlook
Revenue Potential: As Archer scales production and initiates commercial operations, revenue growth could accelerate rapidly, supported by early-mover advantages and a growing addressable market.
Diversified Portfolio: Balancing urban air mobility and defense projects mitigates risks while enhancing long-term growth prospects.
Investment Thesis
Bullish Case:
Archer is uniquely positioned to benefit from the convergence of urban mobility innovation, sustainability goals, and defense modernization.
Entry Point: We are bullish on ACHR above $8.00-$8.20, reflecting a solid technical setup and strong fundamentals.
Upside Target: Our price target is $17.00-$18.00, underscoring confidence in Archer’s ability to execute on growth opportunities in the UAM and defense sectors.
🌟 ACHR—Pioneering the Future of Sustainable Aerial Transportation. #UrbanAirMobility #Sustainability #DefenseInnovation
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD is a global leader in high-performance computing, graphics, and AI solutions, catering to enterprise, gaming, and data center markets. The company's strategic focus on innovation, competitive pricing, and market expansion has solidified its position as a compelling alternative to larger industry players.
Key Growth Catalysts
Data Center Momentum:
AMD’s EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs are gaining significant traction among enterprise and cloud customers.
Increasing adoption of AMD’s products by major hyperscalers reflects its strong positioning in AI workloads and high-performance computing (HPC).
AI Leadership Expansion:
Recent acquisitions of Silo AI and ZT Systems bolster AMD's expertise in AI model development and HPC systems, addressing growing demand for scalable AI infrastructure.
Partnerships with leading cloud providers like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud further strengthen its foothold in the AI and gaming-as-a-service markets.
Gaming and Graphics:
AMD’s Radeon GPUs and Ryzen CPUs remain highly competitive in the gaming sector, supported by robust demand for gaming consoles and PC components.
Collaboration with console manufacturers like Sony (PlayStation) and Microsoft (Xbox) ensures consistent revenue streams.
Innovation and Pricing:
AMD’s focus on delivering price-performance leadership positions it as a viable competitor to industry giants like NVIDIA and Intel.
Cutting-edge technologies like 3D chip stacking and advanced manufacturing nodes give AMD a technical edge.
Financial and Market Outlook
Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with Microsoft and Google provide long-term growth potential in cloud computing and AI services.
Revenue Growth: AMD’s expansion into AI accelerators and HPC ensures consistent double-digit growth in revenue and profitability.
Investment Thesis
Bullish Case:
We remain bullish on AMD above the $108.00-$110.00 range, supported by its strong product lineup, strategic acquisitions, and partnerships in key growth sectors like AI, cloud, and gaming.
Upside Potential:
Our price target is $225.00-$230.00, reflecting confidence in AMD’s ability to expand market share and sustain innovation-driven growth.
🚀 AMD—Leading the Next Wave of High-Performance Computing and AI Transformation. #AI #CloudComputing #Gaming #HPC
Tesla ShortHere is my trade for a Tesla short. We don't usually get into stocks but this one didn't want to miss.
We hope that everyone had a great Christmas and enjoys the profit from this trade.
Please feel free to message me if you need some help, my name is Sarah, and I have been a professional trader for nearly 10 years. The drama you are going through, I completely understand
GOOGLE: Patiently wait for this level to buy.Google is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.689, MACD = 5.220, ADX = 40.687) as it has been practically consolidating for the past 2 weeks, having formed a HH (Dec 17th) at the top of the Channel Up. The 1D RSI bearish divergence suggests that this is a top like Nov 7th was. The trend didn't turn into a buy again before hitting the 1D MA50 after a 0.5 Fibonacci pullback and this would be the most optimal level for buying again. Beyond that, since both bullish waves so far have been approximately +23.90%, we expect another such rise to take place. Our target is the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 225.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Can DXYZ Reach $199? Here’s How!Good morning, trading family!
DXYZ is at an important point, and here’s what could happen:
-If the price breaks above $62.74: We’re looking at a first target of $127, with the potential to climb to $199 or higher.
-If the price falls below $56.12: We could see a drop to levels between $43-$46.
This is a setup worth watching. Let’s stay sharp and trade smart!
Wellness Tips of the Day:
Eat brain-boosting snacks: Reach for a handful of nuts, some fresh fruit, or a piece of dark chocolate to keep your energy and focus steady throughout the day.
Comment, like, follow, or send me a message if you want more details on this analysis!
Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade What You See
Quantum Corp (QMCO): Eyes on $70—Can We Go Higher?Good morning, trading family!
Wellness Tip Of The Day
Dehydration can impair focus and decision-making. Keep water or herbal tea at your desk and sip consistently throughout the day. Aim for at least 2 liters daily, adjusting for your activity level.
Now Lets Get into it:
Quantum Corp ( NASDAQ:QMCO ) has broken through a key resistance level at $29.91, which has now turned into solid support. With that level holding strong, the next big target is $70. If the momentum continues and we don’t see a pullback, there’s potential for a push to $88 as well.
This is shaping up to be an exciting move. Let’s stay sharp and see how the price reacts as we approach these key levels!
Comment, like, follow, or send me a DM if you’d like a deeper dive into this analysis!
Kris/Mindbloome Trading
Trade What You See
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor (AOSL) AnalysisCompany Overview:
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor NASDAQ:AOSL is a leading innovator in power semiconductors, offering a diversified product portfolio that includes Power MOSFETs, Silicon Carbide (SiC) devices, IGBTs, and power management ICs. The company’s focus on high-performance, energy-efficient solutions positions it at the forefront of several transformative industries.
Key Catalysts for Growth
Sectoral Demand Tailwinds:
AOSL is benefiting from rising demand in key sectors such as automotive, consumer electronics, and industrial applications.
These markets are poised for long-term growth, driven by trends like electrification and automation.
Expansion into High-Growth Areas:
Electric Vehicles (EVs): AOSL’s expansion into the EV ecosystem, including advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), enhances its exposure to the rapidly growing EV market.
Sustainability Focus: Products aligned with energy-efficient power management address global sustainability priorities, solidifying AOSL's competitive positioning.
Innovative Portfolio Diversification:
AOSL’s broad product portfolio minimizes risks tied to any single category and ensures resilience amid market fluctuations.
The company’s investments in Silicon Carbide (SiC) technology bolster its competitive edge in applications requiring high power efficiency.
Profitability and Margins:
AOSL’s focus on energy-efficient designs supports higher margins while aligning with industry trends for lower power consumption and cost efficiency.
Investment Outlook
Bullish Case:
We remain bullish on AOSL above the $36.00-$37.00 range, as the company capitalizes on its technological leadership and industry tailwinds.
Upside Potential:
Our upside target for AOSL is $69.00-$71.00, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory, driven by its strategic focus on EVs, ADAS, and energy-efficient innovations.
🚀 AOSL—Powering the Future of Electronics with Sustainable Energy Solutions. #Semiconductors #EnergyEfficiency #TechLeadership
A10 Networks (ATEN) AnalysisCompany Overview:
A10 Networks NYSE:ATEN is a leading provider of high-performance application delivery and cybersecurity solutions, uniquely positioned to benefit from the growing demand for advanced security services and network optimization in a digital-first economy.
Key Catalysts:
Security-Driven Growth:
Security-focused revenue is up 10% year-to-date, underscoring robust demand for advanced cybersecurity solutions in response to escalating cyber threats globally.
With cyber risks rising, this segment is poised to be a significant growth driver for ATEN.
Enterprise Segment Momentum:
The enterprise segment has shown consistent performance, growing 5% year-to-date and 9% year-over-year, signaling healthy demand across key verticals.
Debt-Free Balance Sheet:
A10 Networks’ debt-free financial position provides a strategic advantage in the current high-interest-rate environment, enabling sustainable investment in growth initiatives and enhanced shareholder returns.
Resilient Business Model:
Focused on providing mission-critical solutions, ATEN benefits from strong customer retention and recurring revenue streams, ensuring long-term stability.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on ATEN above the $16.50-$17.00 range, supported by its growth in cybersecurity, enterprise traction, and robust financial health.
Upside Potential: Our upside target for ATEN is $28.00-$29.00, driven by expanding security revenues, enterprise adoption, and financial flexibility in pursuing strategic opportunities.
🚀 ATEN—Empowering Enterprises with Next-Gen Security and Performance. #Cybersecurity #EnterpriseSolutions #TechGrowth
Swing Trading Strategy: HDFC Bank (HDFCBANK)Stock Outlook:
I maintain a bullish outlook on HDFC Bank (HDFCBANK) with a swing trade target of ₹1913.15 by February 27, 2025. This target aligns with the current technical and market trends indicating upward momentum.
Stop Loss Strategy:
To manage downside risk, ₹1600 has been identified as a crucial support level. Any daily settlement below this level will signal a potential breakdown, and positions should be exited accordingly.
Key Notes:
Risk Management: Ensure position sizing aligns with your overall risk tolerance.
Timeframe: This strategy is based on a swing trading approach and is meant to capitalize on short- to medium-term market movements.
Disclaimer:
This trading strategy is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions are subject to change, and all trades carry risks. Please consult a financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
MICROSTRATEGY: Hit the 1D MA50 and bounced, but is it a buy now?MSTR has made a rapid turn from overbought to neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.944, MACD = 14.210, ADX = 17.986) as it reached today a -40% decline from its ATH but eventually hit the 1D MA50 and rebounded. This is the first contact with the 1D MA50 since September 19th. Even though it seems like a strong technical buy opportunity, Microstrategy has had its best buy entries in the last 2 years, under the 1D MA50. As this chart shows there have been 8 such buy signals, so even though the current rebound is tempting, we ideally want to see the price under the 1D MA50 and $300 before issuing a buy signal. Once this is filled, we can target the December 5th High minimum (TP = 400).
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D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Analysis Company Overview:
D-Wave Quantum NYSE:QBTS is a pioneer in commercial quantum computing, leveraging its annealing-based quantum technology to address complex computational challenges. Its first-mover advantage in quantum solutions positions it as a key player in this emerging industry.
Key Catalysts:
Differentiated Technology:
D-Wave’s annealing-based quantum model sets it apart from competitors focused on gate-based systems, enabling practical, near-term solutions for optimization problems across industries.
Government and Defense Partnerships:
Increasing traction with key clients like the U.S. Department of Defense and other government agencies validates D-Wave’s credibility and enhances its potential for lucrative long-term contracts.
Strong Revenue Projections:
Wall Street forecasts a nearly 70% revenue growth to $14.8 million by 2025, reflecting rising demand for D-Wave’s quantum solutions and marking progress toward scalability and profitability.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on QBTS above the $3.75-$3.80 range, supported by its competitive technology, increasing adoption, and strategic partnerships.
Upside Potential: Our upside target for QBTS is $9.00-$10.00, driven by expanding commercial applications, strong revenue growth, and continued government traction.
🚀 QBTS—Harnessing Quantum Power to Solve Tomorrow’s Challenges Today. #QuantumComputing #Innovation #TechGrowth
APPLE: Warning. Potential strong correction ahead.Apple is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 67.500, MACD = 4.850, ADX = 85.805) as it has been rising nonstop since November 4th and the U.S. elections. Yesterday's high though, hit the top of the 2 year Channel Up and the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from October's High-Low, with the 1D RSI reaching overbought levels. The last time we saw this exact combination of events was 1 year ago on the December 14th 2023 High. The result was a price correction to the October 2023 Low (S1). As long as the price doesn't make a new High, we are bearish on Apple, aiming at the S1 level (TP = 220.00).
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AES Corporation - Short term view with strong supportSo first of all both price and indicators are confirming the downtrend.
Today NYSE:AES opened with a gap succeeding yesterday's equilibrium in price with doji candles.
The price is still in the middle of the regression line and in the next few days the price don't seems to be close to upper 2 SD.
In the print above the yellow line shows the support at $11.43. The image's time horizon starts at the end of 2006.
Furthermore looking at short ratio available online the value is about 2,7 from mid October as well as more than 22M short interest
NVDIA: Eyes on the long term picture. $400 by end 2025.NVDIA is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.887, MACD = -1.990, ADX = 34.084) but still neutral on 1W (RSI = 54.240), which outlines a strong long-term buy opportunity on this temporary medium-term weakness. The current situation is best viewed on the 1W timeframe where NVDIA has been experiencing since the June High a pause to its bullish trend as the price action turned sideways. This is a situation that the stock is familiar with as it has happened on every Cycle in the last 10 years.
The two past Cycles you can see on the chart had the same mid-way sideways consolidation, while at the same time the 1W RSI formed a Channel Down. In both cases the 1W MA50 supported, as it has now. With that trendline holding, NVDIA was able to resume the bullish trend to the 3.5 Fibonacci extension from the consolidation Rectangle. That Fib is now at $400 and that is technically this Cycle's target towards the end of 2025.
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AMZN: Are We Heading to $247 or Taking a Quick Dip First? Hey Mindbloome Family, here’s my take on Amazon (AMZN) right now:
1️⃣ If we break above $233, I think we’ll see a strong move up to $246–$247.
2️⃣ If we don’t break just yet, we could see a pullback to one of these levels first:
$225
$221
$215
From there, I’m still looking for a bounce back up to $246.
3️⃣ If we break below $215, that’s when we’ll need to pause and reassess the plan.
Wellness Tip: Don’t underestimate a good night’s sleep. Trading with a clear, rested mind makes all the difference—you’ll see the charts more clearly and make better decisions.
What’s your take—do we break through to $247, or are we dipping first? Let me know! If you want to chat more or dive deeper into this setup, check out my profile or send me a DM.
KRIS/MINDBLOOME EXCHANGE
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