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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14-18th: BUY THE S&P 500? YES!The S&P 500 looks to have supporting structure for higher prices. The bullish momentum is there, and Friday's close put that on display. There is some potential for a limited pullback, though. But I would view it as a better price for a possible long entry. What are your thoughts....? Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
ELI LILLY: This consolidation is a buy opportunity.Eli Lilly is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.880, MACD = 1.910, ADX = 25.797) as well as on 1W as for the past 7 weeks it has turned sideways. This consolidation is taking place half-way through the new bullish wave of the Channel Up that started in early 2023. As you see it is supported by the 1W MA50 and every bullish wave in the beginning was almost at +50% but the latest one was +35%. Consequently we expect a minimum of +46.22% from the bottom and that's what we're aiming for (TP = 1,095). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:LLYLong
by InvestingScope
Valero Energy (VLO) Analysis Company Overview: Valero Energy NYSE:VLO continues to reinforce its leadership in the energy sector, with an increasing focus on sustainable fuels and low-carbon solutions. Through initiatives like supplying sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in Florida, Valero is well-positioned to capture new revenue streams, particularly as global demand for clean energy intensifies. Additionally, its Diamond Green Diesel venture—a partnership aimed at producing renewable diesel—further enhances its capability to thrive in the evolving energy landscape. Key Catalysts: Sustainable Fuels Focus: Valero's efforts in SAF production demonstrate its commitment to addressing the growing demand for green energy, particularly in the aviation sector, which is undergoing a transformation toward low-emission fuels. Diamond Green Diesel Venture: This strategic initiative supports Valero’s transition toward low-carbon energy, with renewable diesel offering strong revenue potential in a market that increasingly favors sustainable alternatives. Strong Financials: Valero’s strong cash flow generation, combined with a massive $144.77 billion revenue in recent reports, showcases its resilience and ability to fund growth in sustainable energy projects. Regulatory Tailwinds: With more stringent emissions regulations globally, Valero’s focus on low-carbon and sustainable fuel solutions aligns with long-term policy trends aimed at reducing carbon footprints across industries. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on VLO above $119.00-$120.00, supported by Valero’s robust financials and strategic push toward sustainable energy solutions. Upside Potential: Our upside target for VLO is $181.00-$182.00, driven by increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, and other clean energy initiatives, alongside strong revenue and cash flow trends. 🚀 VLO—Powering the Future with Sustainable Fuel Solutions. #SustainableEnergy #SAF #LowCarbonSolutions
NYSE:VLOLong
by Richtv_official
TESLA – Slippery Slope to 208 or a Drop All the Way to 191?Alright, traders, here’s the lowdown on Tesla (TSLA). Things are looking a bit dicey as the price slips through key zones. If the bulls don’t step in soon, we could see TSLA sliding down to the 208-207 range (black box). But if that level doesn't hold, we’re in for a deeper pull toward the 191-188 zone (orange box). Key Levels to Watch: Current Price: 218 First Support: 208-207 (black box) – Bulls need to show up here, or it’s more downside. Deeper Target: 191-188 (orange box) – If sellers keep control, this could be the next landing zone. The sellers seem to have the upper hand for now, but a bounce from 208 could shift things in the bulls' favor. Keep an eye on lower time frames to catch any early signs of a reversal. If this analysis helped you, drop your thoughts in the comments—do we hold 208, or are we heading for 191? Follow, share, and spread the word if you found this valuable. Stay tuned for more updates. Mindbloome Trader
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Mindbloome-Trading
2
SEDG Solaredge - More losses ahead?Solaredge Chart Analysis The stock is in a clear downtrend since February with a Significant resistance level at around $32.11 The Minor support seems at around $17.12 Increased volume during price drops indicates strong selling pressure and Prices below the EMA are clues for bearish momentum Key Points for a Trade Entry: Consider waiting for a break below support or a pullback at resistance. Stop-Loss: Set slightly above recent swing high ($24) to manage risk. In case of pullback look for Stops at around $32.90 Trend continuation: Be cautious at EMA crossover or strong volume spikes, which could indicate a trend reversal. Additional Clues: Todays Put Option Volume increased 1,4 times of what was expected indicating bearish flow
NASDAQ:SEDGShort
by candlefire-trading
1
WIPRO LONG Trade Hits First Target! Bullish Momentum BuildsWipro has shown a strong bullish movement, reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 550.85 on 14th October at 12:45 PM. Key Levels Entry : 540.80 – Wipro started its upward movement from this key support level, leading to a breakout. Stop-Loss (SL) : 532.65 – This level is positioned below the entry to protect against any potential downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1) : 550.85 – Already achieved, confirming the strength of the uptrend. Take Profit 2 (TP2) : 567.10 – The next target to watch as bullish momentum continues. Take Profit 3 (TP3) : 583.35 – If buying pressure persists, this level could be tested next. Take Profit 4 (TP4) : 593.40 – The ultimate target signaling the potential for a strong bullish rally. Trend Analysis The price is clearly above the support of the Risological dotted trendline, indicating a strong uptrend. The sharp upward movement followed by a small consolidation suggests the possibility of further gains. With TP1 reached, the next targets are in focus, and a move above 550.85 will likely lead to TP2 being hit. Wipro has reached its first profit target at 550.85, confirming bullish momentum. The next targets at 567.10 and beyond could be reached if the uptrend holds, with solid support from the Risological trendline and strong buying interest.
NSE:WIPROLong
by ProfitsNinja
NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) AnalysisCompany Overview: NuScale Power Corporation NYSE:SMR is at the forefront of the nuclear energy revolution, leveraging its cutting-edge small modular reactor (SMR) technology to address the growing demand for clean, reliable energy. With the backing of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) certification, NuScale holds a strong first-mover advantage in the nuclear energy space, positioning it for significant growth as global efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources accelerate. Key Catalysts: NRC Certification: NuScale is the only SMR company with NRC certification, giving it a significant regulatory and market advantage in deploying its innovative nuclear reactors. Growing Demand for Clean Energy: As countries worldwide commit to reducing carbon emissions, demand for clean nuclear energy is rising. NuScale’s scalable, safe, and cost-effective SMR technology is well-suited to meet this need. Data Center Opportunities: In addition to energy generation, NuScale is exploring applications for its SMRs in the data center industry, offering on-site, scalable power solutions that align with the industry's increasing energy demands. Global Expansion: NuScale's technology appeals to both developed and developing nations as a reliable and safe alternative energy source, with strong international interest in SMR deployment. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on SMR above $10.50-$11.00, reflecting the company’s first-mover status in the nuclear SMR market and its potential to capture significant market share in both energy and data center applications. Upside Potential: Our target range for SMR is $23.00-$24.00, driven by growth in clean energy adoption and increasing demand for scalable power solutions in high-growth sectors like data centers. 🚀 SMR—Pioneering the Future of Clean, Reliable Nuclear Power. #NuclearEnergy #CleanEnergy #SmallModularReactors
NYSE:SMRLong
by Richtv_official
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) AnalysisCompany Overview: Vertiv Holdings NYSE:VRT is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for data center infrastructure, with a particular focus on edge computing and the expanding 5G networks. As companies across various sectors accelerate their digital transformation, Vertiv's role in providing critical infrastructure solutions, including liquid cooling technology, is crucial for the operation and efficiency of modern data centers. Key Catalysts: Edge Computing & 5G Growth: The rise of edge computing and 5G networks increases the need for efficient, reliable data center infrastructure, a core competency for Vertiv. Critical Infrastructure Expertise: Vertiv's leadership in liquid cooling and other essential data center technologies will be increasingly in demand as data centers evolve and expand. Energy Consumption in Data Centers: With U.S. data centers projected to account for a growing share of electricity consumption, Vertiv’s infrastructure solutions—designed to enhance energy efficiency and optimize operations—are expected to become even more vital. Digital Transformation: The ongoing shift toward cloud services, AI, and machine learning will fuel greater data center demand, benefitting Vertiv’s business model. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on VRT above $89.00-$91.00, driven by its market-leading solutions in data center infrastructure and strong growth potential. Upside Potential: Our target range for VRT is $140.00-$145.00, reflecting the company’s strategic position in critical growth sectors like 5G, edge computing, and data centers. 🚀 VRT—Leading Data Center Infrastructure into the Digital Future. #DataCenters #EdgeComputing #5G
NYSE:VRTLong
by Richtv_official
Energy vs Tech : Analyzing Sector Performance and Market TrendsIntroduction: The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall index. Analysis: Sector Comparison: XLK's performance is crucial in indicating market health. When XLK outperforms, it generally suggests a robust market outlook. On the other hand, if XLE starts to outperform XLK, this may indicate potential weakness in broader market conditions. Inflationary Pressures: This ratio between XLE and XLK also reflects inflationary trends. A strong performance from XLE relative to XLK may signal rising inflationary pressures, which investors should closely monitor. Charting the Pattern: The energy sector has formed an inverted saucer pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signify a positive upward trend and possibly a return to inflation. Trade Setup: Entry Point: Monitor the XLE/XLK ratio for a potential breakout confirmation. Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss below the recent support level identified on the chart. Target Price: Set a target based on the measured move from the breakout point of the inverted saucer pattern. Conclusion: The comparative performance of XLE and XLK offers essential insights into market dynamics and inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the potential breakout from the inverted saucer pattern in XLE, as it may indicate a shift in market trends. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLE/XLK ratio and the inverted saucer pattern) #Energy #Technology #MarketTrends #Inflation #XLE #XLK
AMEX:XLE
by Richtv_official
Gatos Silver (GATO) AnalysisCompany Overview: Gatos Silver NYSE:GATO is positioned for an exceptional 2024, with CEO Dale Andres expressing confidence in hitting the higher end of silver production forecasts. The company’s 70% stake in the Los Gatos Joint Venture (LGJV) significantly enhances its value proposition, while ongoing aggressive exploration efforts in the region provide opportunities for new discoveries and resource expansion. Key Catalysts: Strong Silver Production: GATO is expected to deliver silver production at the upper end of its projections for 2024, which could be a key driver for stock performance. Los Gatos Joint Venture (LGJV): The company's 70% ownership in LGJV offers a solid foundation for growth, with access to one of the highest-grade silver districts globally. Exploration & Resource Expansion: GATO's exploration efforts in the Los Gatos district continue to uncover new opportunities for resource expansion, bolstering future revenue prospects. Revenue Growth: In Q1 2024, Gatos Silver reported a 16% increase in revenue, largely due to higher sales volumes, a positive sign of operational efficiency and market demand. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on GATO above $12.80-$13.00, supported by the company’s strong silver production outlook and exploration upside. Upside Potential: Our target range for GATO is $25.00-$26.00, driven by production growth, exploration success, and increasing revenues. 🚀 GATO—Silver Shining Bright with Exploration and Production Growth. #SilverStocks #Mining #Exploration
NYSE:GATOLong
by Richtv_official
AMD: 4H Golden Cross is the best buy signal you can get.Advanced Micro Devices may be having a noticeable correction that turned the stock back to neutral both on the 4H and 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.728, MACD = 5.610, ADX = 40.223) but it just formed the strongest bullish pattern of all: a Golden Cross on the 4H chart. In the past 2 years we've been given another two 4H Golden Crosses and both turned out to be the utmost bullish validation for enormous rallies, which in both cases extended at +141% from the bottom. We expect another such run and now we have the best confirmation (TP = 290.00). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by InvestingScope
2
Heading Into Earning With a Bearish FlagNASDAQ:ASML a leading chipmaker is showing an interesting pattern! In the short term, momentum appears bullish as the price has crossed the 20 SMA and is approaching the 50 SMA, with analysts expecting positive earnings. However, on the daily and weekly charts, a bearish flag pattern is forming, which suggests a potential downtrend. If the price breaks above the 849 resistance, the bullish momentum could continue, but if it fails, the downtrend may push the price towards the 775 support level.
NASDAQ:ASML
by David_SpotTheTrend
2
SPY Multi-Timeframe Analysis: S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)1. Weekly Chart: Uptrend Intact: The weekly chart shows that SPY continues to trade within a broader uptrend, consistently making higher highs and higher lows. It has held above its key moving averages, particularly the 50-week moving average (blue) around $515. MACD Momentum: The MACD histogram shows continued positive momentum. This suggests that bullish sentiment remains strong, with no significant reversal signals yet. Key Resistance: We are testing the $577 level, which appears to be a significant resistance zone. If broken, SPY could extend toward new all-time highs. 2. Daily Chart: Testing Resistance: The daily chart provides a clearer view of the immediate resistance at $577. We’ve seen several attempts to break through this level, but so far, the price has been contained below it. Moving Average Support: The 50-day moving average (green) has acted as strong support, currently around $555.80. As long as SPY holds above this, the bulls remain in control. Momentum Indicator: The MACD on the daily chart is trending positive, showing increasing bullish momentum. This signals that a breakout above $577 is likely if this momentum continues. 3. 4-Hour Chart: Bullish Momentum Building: The 4-hour chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating the bullish momentum is building. Price has been supported by the 50-period moving average at $564.10. Immediate Resistance: The key level remains $577. A clear break above this resistance level on strong volume could signal further upside, potentially pushing SPY toward the $580-$585 range. MACD Shows Caution: While the MACD remains in the green, it’s showing early signs of slowing momentum on this timeframe. This suggests that a brief consolidation or pullback might occur before a breakout. 4. 30-Minute Chart: Tight Range Formation: On the 30-minute chart, SPY is trading within a tightening range, with support around $572.21 and resistance at $577.11. Key Trendlines: We can observe two converging trendlines (green and red), which often precede a breakout. If SPY breaks above the red trendline (around $577), it could lead to a strong upward move. Conversely, a break below the green trendline would signal a potential retracement. Bullish Outlook: SPY remains in a strong uptrend across multiple timeframes, with positive momentum indicators and key moving averages providing solid support. The next critical level to watch is $577. A sustained break above this could see SPY move toward the $580-$585 range, continuing the bullish trend. Risk of Consolidation: However, there is a risk of short-term consolidation, especially on the lower timeframes, before any major breakout occurs. A drop below $564 on the 4-hour chart or $572 on the 30-minute chart could indicate a deeper pullback.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
1
Mastercard May Rise to 519.00 - 526.00 (READ DESCRIPTION)Mastercard May Rise to 519.00 - 526.00 Pivot Point: 482 The pivot point at 482 is a crucial support level for Mastercard. As long as the stock price remains above this level, the outlook is bullish, indicating potential for upward movement. A drop below this level would signify a change in sentiment and a potential shift toward bearish pressure. Primary Strategy (Our Preference): Entry Point: Look for long positions as long as the price holds above the pivot point of 482. Target Levels: 519.00: This target indicates a significant potential gain, suggesting that bullish momentum is strong enough to push prices higher. Achieving this target would reflect positive market sentiment towards Mastercard. 526.00: The next target represents further upside potential, reinforcing the bullish outlook if the stock can sustain its momentum. Alternative Scenario: If the stock falls below the pivot point at 482, traders should consider short positions. Entry Point: Initiate short positions if the price breaks and remains below 482. Target Levels: 470.00: This level marks the first downside target, indicating potential bearish momentum if selling pressure increases. 464.00: The next target level suggests a further decline, highlighting risks if the stock continues to trend downward. Technical Outlook: RSI Indicator: The RSI is above its neutral level at 50, indicating that bullish momentum is in play, as buying pressure exceeds selling pressure. MACD Indicator: The MACD is positive but below its signal line, suggesting that while the current trend is bullish, there may be a potential retracement or consolidation in the short term. Moving Averages: Mastercard is trading above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (respectively at 493.93 and 477.84), further confirming the positive outlook and suggesting the stock is in a bullish trend. Market Dynamics: As long as Mastercard holds above the pivot point of 482, there is significant potential for upward movement toward the target levels of 519.00 and 526.00. If the price falls below the pivot, market sentiment could shift, leading to potential declines toward support levels of 470.00 and 464.00. The pivot point at 482 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook for Mastercard. Holding above this level opens the possibility for price increases toward 519.00 and 526.00. Current technical indicators support the bullish sentiment, but traders should remain cautious for any signs of retracement, especially if the price breaches the pivot support.
NYSE:MA
by CharivapaAlgo
Motorola Solutions May Rise to 475.00-480.00 (READ DESCRIPTION)Motorola Solutions May Rise to 475.00 - 480.00 Pivot Point: 446 The pivot point at 446 serves as a significant support level. Maintaining above this level indicates a bullish outlook, suggesting potential for upward movement. A breach below this level could signal a change in market sentiment, leading to bearish pressure. Primary Strategy (Our Preference): Entry Point: Seek long positions as long as the price stays above the pivot point of 446. Target Levels: 475.00: This target represents a substantial upward movement, reflecting confidence in the stock's potential to capitalize on bullish momentum. 480.00: A further target that reinforces the positive outlook, suggesting a continuation of upward price movement. Alternative Scenario: If the stock drops below the pivot point at 446, traders should consider short positions. Entry Point: Initiate short positions if the price breaks and sustains below 446. Target Levels: 437.00: The first downside target, indicating a level where buying interest might emerge, but selling pressure could continue if bearish momentum strengthens. 432.00: The next target suggests further declines, reflecting a potential bearish trend if the stock continues downward. Technical Outlook: RSI Indicator: The RSI is above 70, indicating that the stock may be in a strong uptrend but also suggesting it could be overbought. This could lead to a potential correction if bearish divergence is observed. MACD Indicator: The MACD is positive and below its signal line, indicating that while the current trend remains bullish, there may be a short-term retracement or consolidation in price. Moving Averages: The stock is trading above both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (respectively at 445.72 and 431.28), confirming the bullish trend and reinforcing the potential for upward movement. Market Dynamics: As long as Motorola Solutions holds above the pivot point of 446, the potential for price increases toward targets of 475.00 and 480.00 remains robust. However, if the price falls below the pivot, market sentiment could shift, leading to potential declines toward support levels of 437.00 and 432.00. The pivot point at 446 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook for Motorola Solutions. Holding above this level opens possibilities for upward movement toward 475.00 and 480.00. Current technical indicators support a bullish sentiment, but traders should monitor for signs of potential retracement, especially if the price breaches the pivot support.
NYSE:MSI
by CharivapaAlgo
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!Since our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on $SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming. We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if NASDAQ:SMCI comes down further. Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares. If NASDAQ:SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by freeguy_by_wmc
10
Palantir Technologies | PLTRPalantir stock is set to pop in the next year as the tech firm erects an artificial intelligence "fortress" that will help it become one of the biggest players in the AI race in the coming decade, Wedbush Securities analysts wrote on Friday. According to Wedbush's Dan Ives, Palantir is headed to $25 a share in the next 12 months. That represents a surge of 54% from Thursday's closing price of $16.15. Shares were up 5.7% at $17.07 early Friday. The data software firm, which has been funded in part by the CIA's In-Q-Tel venture capital arm, is the "Messi" of AI, Ives said, referring to Argentine soccer superstar Lionel Messi. "As we begin the 4th Industrial Revolution, Palantir is engaging in the widespread trend of various industries leveraging recent generative AI innovations to streamline operations and improve expense profiles," the Wedbush analysts wrote. Given Palantir's wide roster of partners in both the public and private spheres, Wedbush sees the next six to 12 months as a period of significant expansion for the company as it serves the growing demand for enterprise-scale large language AI models. "This is early innings on a sum-of-the-parts AI story just on the cusp on monetizing this massive green field AI opportunity," it predicted. Palantir CEO Alex Karp has been a vocal proponent of the rapid development of AI even in the face of risks associated with the technology. In an op-ed for the New York Times this week, he wrote that AI will shape political developments in this century in the same way that nuclear weapons drove geopolitics in the last century. He cautioned that there are risks, but they should not deter the continued advancement of AI. "If these technologies are to exist alongside us over the long term, it will also be essential to rapidly construct systems that allow more seamless collaboration between human operators and their algorithmic counterparts, to ensure that the machine remains subordinate to its creator," he wrote. "We must not, however, shy away from building sharp tools for fear they may be turned against us." Palantir is one of the most popular stocks, and for many, it's been a wild ride. Since the direct listing, investors have seen shares skyrocket to the high FWB:30S , crash to $5.84, and ride the AI boom back to the high teens. I invested in PLTR at the direct listing and purchased shares on the way up and as they declined in price. I was vocal about my dissatisfaction with how Alex Karp handled what has now become the infamous Q2 2022 conference call and became bullish again as PLTR turned things around. 2023 has been a strong year for PLTR as shares have increased by 182.47% YTD. Some investors have done well, while others got back to even or chipped away at the losses. Since May 5, shares have appreciated by 143.59%, appreciating from $7.41 to $18.05. Q2 2023 earnings are around the corner as PLTR is set to report post-market on August 7. Shares can continue higher into earnings and continue throughout 2023 if PLTR delivers growth across its revenue, earnings, customers, and contracts while maintaining its Q2 free cash flow (FCF) margins. In this article, I will discuss what I am looking for in the Q2 2023 earnings report and provide some insights as to what I think shares of PLTR could be worth in the future. In 2021, PLTR made 45 official announcements through its website newsroom, and in 2022, PLTR had 44 announcements. PLTR has been busy in 2023; through July 18, they have made 26 official announcements. This doesn't include any of the blog posts PLTR has written discussing the work their conducting. I continuously research these aspects as they provide insight into what will be discussed on the earnings call and in the 10-Q. In Q2 2023, PLTR posted 14 press releases and another four in July. For PLTR to continue its growth trajectory, it needs more adaptation of its products in the government space as well as the private sector. I expect PLTR to deliver strong growth numbers as there have been significant partnerships announced since April 1. On the government side, Palantir announced two deals with government entities in Ukraine, including the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. PLTR announced that Ukraine would utilize its technology to support the defense and reconstruction of the country and empower Ukraine investigators with critical data processing tools regarding 78,000 registered war crimes. US Special Operations Command entered a multi-year contract worth up to $463 million to expand its enterprise capabilities. On the commercial side, PLTR expanded its cloud partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), entered into an agreement to build an integrated management flow system on top of Foundry for CA Modas S.A, and expanded its partnership with Jacobs Solutions (J). These partnerships are critical because it will allow PLTR to expand throughout several sectors through some of the largest counterparts. I expect the Jacobs and Microsoft partnerships to be extremely beneficial in the coming years as more companies look to create value by enabling AI and moving toward data-driven decisions. PLTR guided for revenue to come in at $528-$532 million in Q2 and revenue of $2.185-$2.235 billion for the full year. In Q1, PLTR delivered $525.2 million in revenue which is 24.04% of the low-end estimates and 23.5% of the high-end estimates for 2023. For PLTR to meet its 2023 full-year revenue guidance, it would need to generate an average of $553.27 million in Q2–Q4 to meet the low-end projection and an average of $569.94 to meet the high-end estimates. I expect PLTR to deliver at least $550 million in revenue for Q2 and discuss how they will increase incremental revenue throughout the year as more contracts continue to be initiated on an ongoing basis. If we see anywhere from $550-$575 million in revenue for Q2, it would be a strong indication that the high-end estimates will be met or exceeded when they report their 2023 fiscal year numbers. If PLTR records $550 million in Q2, $575 million in Q3, and $601 million in Q4, PLTR will generate $2.25 billion in annual revenue for 2023. This would be an average QoQ revenue increase of 4.6% over the next three quarters. I think it will be a strong signal coming off the AIP conference if PLTR is on track to beat the high-end estimates, as that would mean PLTR will be moving into the $600 million quarterly revenue bracket sometime in 2023 and inching their way closer to generating over $1 billion in revenue on a quarterly basis. PLTR has now strung together two consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability and is projecting its adjusted income from operations coming in at $118-$122 million in 2023 and between $506-$556 million for their fiscal year. In Q1 2023, PLTR generated $125.11 million in adjusted income from operations, which is 24.73% of the low-end projection and 22.50% of the high-end estimate. This would mean that PLTR would need to increase its adjusted income throughout the year to meet its annualized projections. I dislike adjusted numbers and prefer free cash flow (FCF) as it's harder to distort than other profitability measures. In Q1, PLTR generated $188.9 million in adjusted FCF, which is a 36% margin. PLTR's true FCF number was $182.6 million, as they generated $187.4 million in cash from operations and allocated $4.8 million toward CapEx. This places PLTR's FCF margin at 34.77%, which is the largest margin they have operated at since becoming a publicly traded company. I have previously indicated that I believe PLTR can replicate similar growth to Salesforce (CRM). CRM currently has a market cap of $223.51 billion and, in the TTM, has generated $32.19 billion of revenue and $7.06 billion in FCF. Mr. Market is valuing CRM at a 6.94x multiple on sales, and 31.64x FCF. CRM has seen explosive growth over the last decade as its grown its revenue by 690.67% and its FCF by 1,125.54%. Including the TTM, CRM has operated at a 20.57% FCF margin over the previous five years.If PLTR finishes on the high-end of their revenue estimates for 2023 they would deliver $2.25 billion in revenue. PLTR's previous projections placed their 2025 revenue at $4 billion or more and I don't recall seeing updated estimates. If PLTR comes in on the high end of the 2023 projections and generates $2.25 billion, its YoY revenue growth would have decelerated from 41.11% in 2021 to 23.61% in 2022 and 18.12% in 2023. Hypothetically, if PLTR can grow its revenue at a 15% YoY basis over the next decade from 2024–2033, it would generate $2.98 billion in revenue for 2025 and $9.12 billion in 2033. At a 33% FCF margin in 2033, PLTR would generate $3 billion in FCF. At a 32x multiple on FCF, PLTR would be valued at $96.17 billion. If PLTR can maintain an 18% YoY revenue growth rate and maintain a 33% FCF margin, PLTR will generate $11.78 billion in revenue and $3.89 billion in FCF in 2033. At a 32x FCF multiple, PLTR would be valued at $124.42 billion. If PLTR was to grow at a quicker pace of 21% YoY on average, they would generate $15.15 billion in revenue and $5 billion in FCF in 2033. Assigning a 32x multiple on their FCF would place PLTR at a $159.93 billion valuation. Based on these assumptions, PLTR could grow between 151.49%-318.23% over the next decade, which would be an annualized return of 15.15%-31.82%. These are just assumptions regarding what could occur and why I feel PLTR could be a good long-term investment. For those who think a 32x multiple on FCF is a crazy valuation, I am going to place a table below. Based on the current market caps, big tech has multiples from 31.29x to 221.31x. Putting the outliers aside, it's not uncommon to see companies trade in the 40x range. Even companies such as the Coca-Cola Company (KO) trade at a 29.90x multiple and PepsiCo (PEP) trade at a 45.41x multiple on FCF.
PLong
by moonypto
11