Complete Macro AnalysisHello everybody! This is a follow up on my 6-part traditional and crypto market analysis, yet everyone that reads this one will benefit greatly, regardless of whether they've read any of the previous analyses or not. Over the last week I provided some updates on each part, however it currently makes more sense for me to make a brand-new holistic analysis, rather than provide small updates on each part. This one will be focused entirely on traditional markets, while the next one will be focused entirely on crypto.
In order for anyone to have a better idea of where markets might be headed next, it is best to start with the bond market. Bond yields have been rising across the world and across the entire curve, with the big distinction that lower duration bond yields have been rising significantly faster than long term ones. The main reason that this is happening is that bond markets are expecting Central banks to raise rates a few times in the next 1-2 years, but don't believe they can do anything more than that. Essentially the market sees inflation being transitory, that the global economy is in a bad shape and that Central banks are in such a terrible spot, that by the time they raise rates a few times, they will be forced to start cutting them again.
Based on the charts below, it is clear that bond yields are still in a massive downtrend. The 10y yields have started hitting resistance, while yesterday we got the first rejection at resistance due to the Russia/Ukraine news. It is pretty normal for people to seek safety at times like this, by buying bonds (bond yields and bonds are inversely correlated). So, as you can see on the third chart, the minute bonds got to support and the news started coming out, the bond market bounced. Although I wish that war between Russia and Ukraine doesn't happen, and actually believe it won't happen, in case that it does happens, the Fed gets some room to not raise rates. For many reasons that I mentioned in the previous analysis, it is clear that inflation will come down significantly in 2022 and there is very little the Fed could do about it anyways. Therefore, any excuse they might be able to use to not raise, they will probably use it. Having said all that, bonds are still in a short to medium term bear market, and could fall another 5-10% before they put in a final bottom (yields going up by 0.5-1% from here).
Now the situation between Russia and Ukraine doesn't affect markets just because it affects the psychology of people or because governments print money to cover expenses of war. There are several severe implications around trade and resources, as a lot of trade especially between Europe and Russia could stop, while Russia is a major exporter of commodities, primarily of Oil and Natural Gas. Europe and the entire world were already facing serious problems around energy, and this could make things even worse. Again, for many reasons mentioned in the previous analysis, there isn't enough oil above ground or oil production to cover the needs of the world at reasonable prices. OPEC isn't even able to meet its production increase goals, let alone be able to handle Russia not giving oil to the rest of the world. Oil is already pretty expensive relative to where it should be given the current state of the global economy, and based on the charts it could go significantly higher. So far, the market has behaved as I had expected, with a rise up to 92-93$, a pullback and now another push higher. It's not yet clear if the current situation will boost oil prices above 100$, but it is certainly possible. In the short term it is easy to see a mini 'speculative shock', that could send crude up to 115-120$, only for it to then come all the way down to 75$ and find support there.
What is interesting to note is how Gold has been able to hold its ground for so long, despite bond yields going higher. Not only that, but it currently sits above all major moving averages and pivots, while it has also broken above its key diagonal resistance. The truth is that the breakout isn't as decisive as one might have expected based on the news that came out on Friday, hence it might be a trap. It’s clear that the breakout was heavily affected by the the Russia/Ukraine news and that could be the catalyst for a gold bull market, but it’s still prudent to be cautious. What is even more interesting is that Gold has gone up, while most Central banks are raising or plan to raise rates, and while the USD has been going up since early 2021. In my previous analysis, I mentioned how I thought gold going up or down is more like a coin toss, as there is a strong case to be made in either direction. Some people took that as me being bearish on Gold, while what I had said was that above 1930-1940 gold might be tremendous for going long. Personally I prefer to buy strength and simply sacrifice some gains, in order to avoid being stuck in a trade that doesn't do well.
A few weeks ago, the ECB hadn't even talked about raising rates, but now they have. Right after the Fed meeting the EURUSD pair had a major reversal that accelerated when the ECB started turning hawkish. My initial thought was to watch Gold closely, as now 3 of the 5 major Central banks are raising or talking about raising rates, yet gold remains strong. At the moment EURUSD has been rejected at resistance with an SFP, yet it still has some room to the upside. It's above the 50 DMA and the diagonal, so if everything goes well and tensions get resolved peacefully, the pair could easily get to 1.15-1.17 by the next Fed meeting. The USD seems to already been losing steam as the yield curve is flattening and there are already 7 rate hikes being priced in. Hence the ‘real’ news isn’t that the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% in an emergency meeting or that it will raise rates by 0.5%, but that the ECB might raise rates after an entire decade, as well as that all Central banks will be forced to cut rates relatively soon.
Therefore, this gold strength could also be an indication that many investors are betting on a policy error by Central banks, which might be forced to reverse course faster than people expect. What people need to know, is that gold doesn't behave like most people think it does. Gold in our age, is more like an error/catastrophe hedge, that tends to follow real rates. For example, today Gold could benefit from two things: 1. A war is definitely a big boost for gold, as people might want to own it because it is of limited supply and has no counterparty risk, and it can easily be owned anywhere. Countries that go to war tend to devalue their currency or even seize assets, or that country itself could be excluded from the global financial system, like being kicked out of the SWIFT system. In such a situation gold tends to offer tremendous certainty, while nothing else really does, not even US treasuries. 2. When Central banks are cornered or have no real control over a certain situation. Currently it is obvious that Central banks are trapped, and that there is another major 'catastrophe' lying ahead. The world is stuck in an environment of low growth and too much debt, with markets being significantly overleveraged. None of the problems over the last 20-30 years have been solved, only papered over, hoping that the system magically heals, with the last 13 years alone being full of examples of them always acting late. Finally, the key reasons why gold hasn't done well during a situation of deeply negative interest rates, is that 1. Gold had rallied significantly since 2018, 2. There were lots of different, more compelling opportunities out there, 3. Everyone was already prepared (nobody else to buy + people had to sell gold as inflation increased to covered other costs, essentially using their insurance), 4. Most of the inflation wasn't caused by the Fed / Central bank actions.
After having gone through all of the above, it is definitely time to talk about stocks. Once again I’ll focus on the top 3 US indices, SPX, NDX and RUT, as they can give us a pretty good idea of where stocks are headed globally. In my previous analysis I mentioned how I expected a bounce, a dip and then another bounce, which all pretty much played out based on my technical analysis, with one exception. The last move up was shorter than initially expected, however even based on my tools I was probably 'too optimistic'.
Starting with the S&P 500, we can see how the bullish channel was broken and significant downside followed. Then the market had a strong bounce off the 300 DMA + horizontal support. After the bounce it got rejected on the 100 DMA + diagonal resistance + horizontal resistance, and fell down to the 200 DMA where it bounced. What is odd to me is that the bounce ended with a double top, rather than getting up to the 50 DMA and test the diagonal, while forming an SFP. A double top there is somewhat bullish in the short term, as it is an area that the market will probably break before making new lows. At the moment the market is sitting right at the Yearly Pivot but has broken below the 200 DMA, a situation that is neither very bullish or bearish. As a whole the momentum is indeed pointing lower and this isn't a great picture.
In turn the Nasdaq 100 is actually looking much worse than the S&P 500, as a lot of the big tech behemoths have been taking several big hits recently. Slow growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates, are definitely not beneficial for these companies. For example, we saw a massive gap down for Facebook after a disappointing earnings report, a gap similar to what happened in June 2018, with the NDX going down 19% from that point in the next 6 months. Tech stocks have massively outperformed everything else since 2009, and pretty much everything compared to where they were in Feb 2020, so it is normal to get some extra weakness in this index. At the same time several parts of the stock market started peaking throughout 2021, with mid Feb 2021 being a major inflection point. At that time many unprofitable tech related companies had reached bubble territory and started reversing, but the effects of their valuation getting crushed started having an impact on NDX three months ago.
The third index and final index is the Russell 2000, which looks like it was in distribution for about 10 months, while a few days ago it had a throw back into resistance. The RUT had a really strong breakout in Nov 2020 and by March 2021 it was up 35%. Then in September it formed a clear bull trap that led to the major leg down. Once the 2100 support that was tested multiple times for about a year was broken, it became clear that more downside would soon follow. At the time of my previous analysis, I mentioned that we'd probably see the Russell retest that support and flip it into resistance, which happened as expected. Now the index is below all major moving averages and Pivots, and is still looking bearish, even though in the short term it has shown a decent amount of strength. Until it reclaims 2250, it remains in bearish territory and it is probably best to avoid going long,
Based on all the above, things overall aren't looking great. At least not in the short to medium term, for the economy and the stock market. Central banks are trapped and most investors are aware of that, and now there is an extra variable, that of the conflict. So the question then becomes, if everyone is aware of all of this, couldn't the market simply go up from here? Aren't lots of these things priced in? Aren't wars said to be good for the stock market? Well, like I mentioned above all of these are correct. It is true that due to the conflict we might see bond yields roll over and we get more stimulus from central banks and governments, both of which could push stocks higher. However, in the short term there is a lot of uncertainty due to the way many things will get disrupted in the world. Because of that gold and oil could go ballistic, hence they are the best bets at the moment. It is probably best to stay away from stocks for now, as their potential downside is substantial, while their potential upside is limited as they need some time to recover. Nothing in the charts really suggest that they are ready to go up hard any time soon. Let's also not forget that stocks would have eventually deflated to an extend, regardless of what the Fed or what happens in the world, as the 2020-2021 frenzy couldn't last forever. Of course this doesn't mean that I believe a major bear market is in play right now, just that the SPX could eventually get to 3900-4000 in the next year, that the NDX will test its major log diagonal and that the RUT will its 2018 highs. Although I don't know how or when we get there, to me the most likely scenario is that within the next 2 years bond yields will collapse and the government will be forced to spend a lot, while the Fed is forced to cut rates and do QE. Even if the yields don't collapse and inflation goes rampant, the US government will still be forced to print and spend a lot, something that would make the problems worse.
In conclusion, despite the fact that I was mostly bullish on stocks and oil through 2020-2021 and neutral-bearish on gold, my stance now remains bullish on oil (buying dips anywhere from 55-75$), neutral-bullish on gold and neutral-bearish on stocks. For me to turn bullish on stocks again, I'd either need to see certain levels get to the downside or reclaim certain levels to the upside, or some extreme action by central banks or governments. In terms of US bonds and the US Dollar, the picture is not as clear. In early 2021 I was bearish on bonds, but after that I was bullish as I didn't really expect the Fed to raise rates and thought bonds were significantly oversold. Even if I wasn't expecting the Fed to raise rates, the USD was also extremely oversold and none of the issues of the financial system had been solved. The world was still short on dollars, what the Fed and the government did was too little and at the same time everyone printed. In the current environment, on the one hand bonds are in major downtrend and the USD is in a major uptrend, and on the other hand both might have reversed after hitting major inflection points. Hence it is probably better to either go with the trend or simply wait a bit until the market gives us a clearer picture as to where it wants to go next.
Thanks a lot for reading and good luck with your trading! :)
