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Torrid Holdings big rounding bottom and falling wadge formationCURV is forming a huge rounding bottom (spot on for a plus-size clothing company) with a big gap at around 14 $ on a higher time frame. In a shorter time frame, there is a clear falling wedge that could soon be broken on the upside, this theory could be invalidated as there is a gap to be filled in the lower 2.5 $ area and the 200 ema could be a big resistance. IF the price would go past the Ema with ease I expect a big pump. In the last earning the company beat expectations by more than 40% and could return to be profitable in the next quarter.
NYSE:CURVLong
by frapelloso
SPX500 - Just finishing its WXY... slowly. The waves are just beautiful even in this correction. Impulses and corrections are clear. I have relatively high confidence we'll be heading into the last portion of this double ZigZag after a slight upwards correction to kiss the Trendline and/or the golden pocket of the last structure. We're seeing considerable volume in this Y Wave . I'm hoping that will lead to a wick down to end it and a quick and heavy bounce of the support I'm seeing around 32xx . No signals printed on the FSS Screener is probably normal at this point. But I'd expect to see a few printing as we bounce off that trend line.
FX:SPX500
by FlokiCrypto
Did stocks just bottom? Are they going higher or lower?It looks like stocks bottomed today, but what is my evidence, and why would I say that? 1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening. 2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY. 3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and that doesn't just mean the BoJ and PBoC. Since the Sep-Nov issues that bond markets faced globally, even the Fed and Treasury have increased market liquidity. 4. Current debts can't be repaid. That's why bonds are going down (yields up). There is no way governments can't pay these dividends through taxation and can only repay them with printed money. Now you can hold both a depreciating asset that pays dividends and riskier assets. Chasing a fool's yield isn't ideal, but it's a strategy. Higher yields = more money supply will be created. High inflation isn't necessarily bad for stock markets, contrary to what the majority wrongly believes. 5. During this correction, sentiment has become increasingly bearish, with most investors being bearish. At the CryptoBullSociety, in private channels, as well as on my Twitter account, I have been talking about the market piercing the 200 DMA and bottoming. Yesterday I shared bullish ideas on Tradingview for metals and Chinese stocks, which also permeates to US stocks after such a substantial rise since Oct 2022; the market needed to test bulls and, as usual, pull into the golden cross before going higher. On their way up, stocks swept some highs and filled some gaps, but some gaps were left unfilled higher, along with some newly formed double tops. Even if markets are about to go lower, I believe SPX will first test 4350-4400 and then go lower. By lower, I mean more of a sideways market than a continuation of the bear market or an outright crash. So far, we have seen the major US indices pull into their crosses, test support, sweep lows, and today form a reversal candle. Below are many US-related charts showing all the potential targets (double tops, double bottoms, etc.). The reason why I call them targets is that the market tends to break these structures. As we've been trending higher, it's more likely we will first take out the double tops and then the double bottoms. Currently, nothing indicates a crash, while there are indications of a bottom being in. To be clear, I am not saying we are ready to fly to the moon tomorrow, although we could. Given the system's structure, with most governments being broke, more money will be created. Below you can see some charts of other stock markets, like the GER40 (DAX), UK100 (FTSE), and CN50 (CHINA). I also added the S&P500 value index, IVE. UK100 is at new ATHs, GER40 near highs seem to be in tight consolidation before expansion, CN50 appears to be back in a bullish trend after capitulation (something I talked about in yesterday's idea, which you can find below), and IVE almost made new ATHs a few weeks ago. My overall point is that sentiment is bearish, while I believe liquidity will keep increasing, causing a short squeeze that could last at least until SPX gets to 4350. As I've mentioned in my previous ideas, it's unlikely that we would get a 2000 or 2008 crash so quickly after the Fed started tightening, and if we get one, it will probably be in Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. The path I've drawn in the chart is what I see as the most likely one, followed by another significant correction. Of course, I could be wrong, so my stop loss is at 3840
FX:SPX500Long
by BitcoinMacro
1
meta about to break down on this trendforkthis describes the bearish trend angle meta has had recently due to the fundamentals and outstanding availability. if we dont regain an immediate footing on this bear trend and break it were headed for the lower horizontals. even if we return to the middle regression staying over an anchored vwap band price should struggle to stay away from middle regression modularly. looking at frama the contraction shows that a topping out proccess is engaging.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by cerealpatterns
Long everything?We have been making lower lows on the daily RSI since the start of the year and even though price has reached a new low the daily RSI has printed a higher low. Bullish divergence is forming and with price sitting on this amazing support which has shown time and time again it can pivot momentum quickly to the upside I think we there is a high chance there will be a reversal from here. Its hard to ignore how insane this confluence point is weekly bullish divergence on the NAS100 cannot be ignored either. Also the USDT dominance hit exactly the same level as in June 2022 , still waiting for a break and weekly close under this white support line to confirm strong relief rally. I still think we go up from here .
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
1
The 200 Daily SMA was struck again... Full short using QQQSAssuming with a high degree of certainty, that positive traditional market sentiment is waning. As we enter the first acknowledged year of this Great Inflationary Central Bank Recession, caused by a combination of negative interest rates and a supply chain bullwhip effect even the Russian military's logistic department might have been able to spot. We are going to lose the last bit of positive buying sentiment, likely leading to the S&P 500's next strong rejection lower. From a macro point of view, Central banks are all engaging on further tightening measures. While Inflation is running rampant and significantly raising prices for all goods, particularly in terms of rental properties, food and living expenses. Aspects that are not proportionally represented in official government reports. Combined with this is wave of lowering company earnings and a swathe of high paying lay offs in the financial, tech and manufacturing sectors. These factors have not been factored into price yet and the likelihood of the Central bankers holding higher rates for these next two years, has not be accounted for. The final aspect of this analysis is the slow selling that has occurred. With each rally against the downtrend, each sideways accumulation is being held up by a "Buy the Dip" mentality. Retail is buying the dip the same way as in every bear cycle, accompanied by all the bull market funds that are buying the dip, when a likely larger 15% sell off is coming down the river to Niagara Falls. This is just one Investor's opinion, best of luck out there.
SP:SPXShort
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
5
SPY bull flag break out.SPY along with the Dow Jones are in a very similar broadening trading wedge. They both have also recently broken out of a bull flag, also they have both entered above the 20 level in Stochastic RSI, (the Dow first). The Dow Jones also printed a bullish engulfing monthly candle back in Oct of last year just before breaking out of it's respective bull flag. History shows us that the monthly Stochastics are very powerful when entering this level and is usually followed by price action for months to come or the next few years. The broadening wedge indicates the moves up are getting more powerful and the pull backs more harsh. This will continue on until the trend breaks. But, when will it break??? I'm not sure of the timeframe, but I might have a clue. Let me explain... AS we can see, we have two breaks in the trend, highlighted by the two circles. The first one was at the very begging of the trend and the second could be at the middle (we don't know and it doesn't" matter) what is important are the breaks of the trend and the quick reversal back into it. As we can see on both occasions a breakdown happened but within 2 to 3 candles the price recovered. The theory is that this trends blow off top could puncture the top of the broadening trend line and then quickly break back down into it, which could then break the trend completely. So, just like the bottom breaks recovering quickly the upper break could lead to the complete breakdown fairly quickly. This also applies for the Dow Jones. The bull flag points to 720 pips for the SPY when measured from the pole. So, could this be the top in the Feb to March time of 2025? Only time will tell. Remember, non of this Financial or trading advice, please do your own diligence. Kind Regards WeAreSatoshi Stay blessed in 23!
AMEX:SPYLong
by WeAreSat0shi
5
Yearly open price actionStocks closed pretty strong for the year, and the yearly open filled a gap very quickly. At the moment, I see very little evidence that the year will start with a massive dump, especially after 2022 was so brutal for stocks, bonds, and crypto. It looks more likely that things will first go up and then potentially go down. The market resuming its bounce makes more sense before it goes down again. In my opinion, Q1 has the potential to be a bullish quarter, with SPX getting even up to 4400. It might be a massive bull trap, but it's possible. I think the Q1-Q3 period has the potential to be very choppy and much choppier than people imagine. Instead of having a clear trend, we might see a ton of chop that frustrates both bulls and bears, and then eventually a resumption either to the upside or downside, depending on what global liquidity is like and how markets force Central banks to act. Even though I see a recession coming, I've been talking about how it wouldn't come in 2022 and that all we saw in 2022 was a slowdown and inflation, giving its place to disinflation. I doubt the recession will start in Q1 2023 and that markets might not crash until Q4 2023. At the same time, it's clear that the USD is in a challenging position and that the Fed is cornered while other central banks are increasing liquidity while raising rates. Maybe the market finally accepts that interest rates won't be higher than inflation over the next few years, and they price that in. Finally, we need to remember that the Fed started hiking in March 2022 and that the impact of their hikes could take anywhere from 12 to 24 months until they genuinely impact the economy. So let's focus on what the current price action is telling us on SPX, NDX, and RUT. On my main chart, I have S&P 500 and the potential scenarios I see. I see the Monthly Pivot and the critical breakdown zone being tested. We currently have a double top at 3880 which will most likely be broken. A lot will then depend on whether the market will close above the Monthly Pivot. If it does, it may go significantly higher toward 4350-4400. Until I see a close below 3750, I don't think it makes sense to be very bearish, as the market is trading in a range, so it could first take out the highs, then the lows, and then move higher. It's, therefore, better to take it step by step. For NDX below, we can see that the market has found decent support and could bounce. In my opinion, we will see new lows on Nasdaq much faster than all other indices, and I am pretty sure we will get new lows in 2023, even if we don't see other indices make new lows. For RUT, we are in a mini range, which is part of a more extensive range. And I think we first take the highs and then the lows. In my opinion, the market will trade both at 1630 and 1910, so it's all a matter of how we get to each point. Either way, both look very attractive for going long or short.
FX:SPX500
by BitcoinMacro
TSLA, Turn?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better! Cheers! Not a bad area for a turn here. Hitting some resistance, some Elliott Wave Fibs and some geometry. BUT the bounce up appears to be a 3 wave move and a swift move down, which may suggest it is just a correction and more down is coming. Some kind of truncation could have occurred but would need to see some swift upwards to confirm. Watching this retracement. If it comes up to at least the .50 in a corrective move, that could be an indication the down is come. IF it heads down, there is some nice previous resistance that could be as support.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by CryptoKnee
US 10y2y yield curve and the S&P500. What's next?I see many people expecting a massive crash because the yield curve has inverted, but they forget that stocks fell as the yield curve was inverting, something that didn't happen in the previous times. Before the earlier crashes, stocks rose before the inversion and kept growing for a bit after the inversion. In 1989 stocks didn't even fall after the 10y2y curve fell below 0. That inversion happened two years after the 1987 crash, and we have a similar situation this time. We had an inversion before the Covid crash, and now, two years after the Covid crash, we are having another. However, this time, we've already had a 25% correction on the S&P500. Although I believe we will have a recession and used to think it would be gruesome, I am starting to feel things won't be as bad as many think. It would be very odd to have a second crash after the March 2020 crash, as many investors still expect a similar correction, making it less likely. Everyone also knows the Fed will eventually be forced to cut rates and return to QE, creating a market crash less likely. The market is like a junky that wants more QE and low rates, even if that would come at the cost of short-term pain, as the market is forward-looking and is already anticipating that Central banks will support demands. They will have to, as governments won't be able to fund themselves in any other way. At the same time, we must not forget many structural forces other than the Fed, like stock buybacks, indexation, passive investing, cheap & easy access, bank money/credit creation, and foreign investment inflows in the US. Of course, we definitely shouldn't forget how strong the US economy is, having some of the best companies worldwide. It feels like 2000-2013 was like getting out of the 1968-1982 period: massive consolidation and considerable changes in the structure of markets. From 1982 until 2000, the market rallied by 1275%, with very few significant corrections. None was more prominent than 40%, and the largest was similar to the Covid crash. We are nine years into this expansion and have rallied only 200% from the previous highs. Therefore I don't see why we should expect another massive correction soon, right after we've had a 20%, a 35%, and a 25% correction over the last 3.5 years. I think the only reason for a crash would be the Fed raising rates above 3.5%, which I see as nearly impossible. Of course, I am not saying another dip is impossible. If the SPX tops around 4350-4400, I can see us making another low, only to scare longs and trap shorts and send it much higher. This idea is more about not getting stuck in some doom porn and seeing that markets can go up even when things are not expected to go well or aren't going well.
SP:SPX
by BitcoinMacro