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New Highs for Stocks!!Stocks have made new highs, finally reaching the target we set at 4408. We set this target before the sharp decline in stocks that followed renewed Coronavirus panic. However, the S&P made a V shaped recovery, and we have retraced this selloff and then some. We do appear to have returned confidently back to bull mode. We have established our next target at 4431. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has rounded off suggesting stocks may be coming up for air at the moment
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Two scenarios explained on Square INCToday we will analyze SQ. This company is the 4th biggest Holding of ARKK and is run by Jack Dorsey (Twitter funder) So what can we see here? 1) The main structure: We have a horizontal compressive channel that has been in formation since its peak on FEBRUARY 2021. This is useful because we can know if the price has made a clear breakout or not based on the reaction on these levels and daily candlesticks closing above or below. The main idea here is: If the price stays inside these levels, don't assume any breakout yet. 2) Possible Bearish Scenario: If the price reaches the highest level of the structure and reacts there, we can expect a bearish movement towards the other side of the range. (Interesting level for reversal traders) 3) Possible Bullish Scenario: When we want to develop swing setups based on new trends starting, we take some considerations before risking our money. First of all (Clear Breakout), we want to observe a new ATH (no doubt that the price broke the structure). After that, we want to observe a small consolidation, as you can see with the yellow lines. IF that happens, we can trade above that and set stop loss below the level. This provides a great confirmation and a setup with a perfect Risk-Reward Ratio of almost 1:3 to the first target. Expected time towards the final target (150 - 200 days if the scenario goes as expected) As you can see, we don't care at all about the direction of the market. Taking rigid views with any asset is not a good idea because it doesn't allow you to adapt to changing conditions. That's the reason we work with "Scenarios." Based on this, the only situation we are interested in is the bullish one (Swing Setup); otherwise, we will stay on the sidelines. Thanks for reading! Feel free to show your view in the comments.
NYSE:SQ
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
Stocks Shrug off CoronavirusStocks have made an incredible V-shape recovery, completely shrugging off the entire meltdown we saw from renewed Coronavirus fears. We anticipated a comeback for stocks yesterday, but our targets were much more modest. We anticipated the S&P to test at least 4306, but it is now currently testing 4350. We are seeing a red triangle on the KRI suggesting we are meeting some resistance here, but after such a move this should be anticipated. We are nearing highs so stocks will likely range at current levels before considering a breakout. The Kovach OBV dipped to reflect the selloff but has gained considerable strength with the recovery.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
2
Coronavirus Panic Smashes Stocks!! 😱📉Massive amounts of risk off sentiment poured into the markets which crushed stocks. We dipped as low as 4234, before a respite back to current levels in the upper 4200's. Currently we are sitting just below a resistance level at 4293. The Kovach OBV has turned sharply from its overwhelming bull trend to reflect the dump. We dumped almost two handles, from just below 4400 to the 4200's, so it is reasonable for stocks to come up for air and perhaps range at current levels. Another dump could take us back to lows or worse, there is a vacuum zone down to 4188 below. A recovery could take us back to 4327. It is likely after a few days at most that we will begin to make a full recovery. These bouts of panic don't last long and the Fed will likely make a statement to save the day if so
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
MARKET ALPHA'S GOLDEN CROSS - TLTNASDAQ:TLT Here is my take on a common trading strategy that uses the 50 and 200 moving averages to indicate a trend change. In my version, I use two multi time frame EMA's. One runs at an input of 26 and the other runs at 104. Typically these kind of crosses will involve a retest and sometimes may fail, but if the trend holds true in a reversal we can usually see pretty large gains. As always, don't get over confident and always know your stop loss and take profit levels.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jakelikesstocks
Bitcoin and the big macro pictureBTCUSD currently in a very bearish trend. Keeps closing lower and lower both on daily and weekly charts, while the price keeps getting rejected at previously important levels. Bitcoin is oversold and cheap compared to several models and previous cycles, but because it went up too fast it could potentially bottom anywhere between 12k to 28k. Essentially its momentum and trend are very bearish, although Bitcoin is cheap. It could just get a lot cheaper. It's tested the 28-31k zone so many times, that the whole thing will probably break down. Currently 31-31.5k is resistance and until that is properly reclaimed I remain pretty bearish. BTC could go all the way up to 35.3k and still be bearish, but once it closes above that level I think the bull is fully back. BTC.D is another thing indicating that the crypto market isn't in a good state at the moment. Bitcoin dominance growing without Bitcoin showing strength potentially means money is leaving the market. Yes there is money coming in, in the form of stablecoins, but the market still doesn't look very healthy. We have a big bubble and its only been about 2 months since it popped and we haven't seen capitulation yet. Bitcoin dominance could reach 60% before alts start going up hard again (both vs USD and BTC). https://www,tradingview.com/x/TL3Wr5PH/ Bonds had a massive breakout. There are many reasons why bonds could be going up, but I think this also hits the inflation/reflation story/narrative in the head. The Fed isn't printing money and there is no real growth, so at least for now inflation is transitory. The market is telling us banks aren't lending and that there is a lot of trouble ahead, something clearly shown by the Reverse Repo situation where banks want to give cash and get pristine collateral (US Treasuries). Clearly the Delta variant, the Fed being hawkish, so very high inflation numbers etc are also catalysts/signals that things are good and that the Fed has neither inflation or deflation under control. The USD (DXY) hasn't broken out completely yet, but it is creeping higher. Another not so great sign. The USD has a lot of resistance in the 96-97 area so even if it breaks out, it might just create a shock in the markets which might not last for very long. At the moment getting down to 91 wouldn't be abnormal and then go up to 96-97. Personally I think that breaks 89 it will head all the way down to 82, but until then it's still in this massive range and I have no idea which way is it going to break. The USD and Bonds creeping higher are not good signs for the reflation trade for sure, Oil is at key support right now and with OPEC announcing more production + the Delta variant + the reflation trade slowing down for months now + oil hitting a 6.5 year high, were enough to slam Oil back down... but personally I think the low supply + underinvestment + the insane collapse & bear market bottom in April 2020 are the major catalysts that will take oil higher. Oil is a good buy here and all the way down to 44. In the next few years it will probably hit 100$ Gold is trapped in a range. Doesn't look great, doesn't look awful... But because its below most key MAs, below most key pivots and has tested the diagonal support & the horizontal at 1680 so many times, I think it will break lower. If dollar goes up, then I expect Gold to go down. Silver seems very weak and breaking down. Another bad sign for the reflation trade and could be a bad sign for gold too. After the failed scam pump silver failed to go higher and I wouldn't touch it until it hits 19$ or breaks above 30$. Copper made a new ATH and then quickly crumbled back down. We saw something similar with gold, but at different time period and that's not bullish. At least until I see them reclaim their 2011 ATHs I am cautious. Copper unlike silver looks a lot more bullish as its long term trend is still up and the demand for copper could skyrocket due to the green revolution, but in the short term if it breaks below 4$ I think it would potentially bounce at 3.7$ and then bottom at 3.3$. Nasdaq 100 has been the best performer of the last few months as US tech giants are benefiting from a strong dollar and deflation. The Nasdaq going up alone was a sign that something was a bit off. In my opinion stocks, and especially US tech stocks will go even higher and properly parabolic over the next few years... but in the short term I am a cautious. NDX showing some strength at the moment but could dip down to 14.2k and if that doesn't hold to go all the way down to 12.4k. In my opinion there is no doubt that stock market bull isn't over, at least not for the Nasdaq. SPX hit some very important support and this could be the dip. Beautiful fill of the inefficiency and bounced a bit. The SPX Equal weight topped in May 10th along with crypto, another sign that the final rally was only because of large caps. Russell 2000 also showing a similar picture although it actually topped in Mid March. The current way the Russell looks is a proper reversal and doesn't look bullish. However it's still in this range and because it has held the lows after sweeping only one there is a chance it goes higher. If it start dropping the best area to look for buying are the old ATHs which coincides with the Vaccine/Election breakout pump. DAX Not looking great, but still very bullish long term. Nikkei has been having these pumps and then full retrace for many many years. The situation is similar to the Russell, so I'd definitely like to go long near 24.2k
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinMacro
Stocks Rounding Off!!Stocks have felt an infusion of risk off sentiment. The price action has rounded off, after peaking just a few ticks above 4389. We saw support at 4364, and 4350, exactly the levels we have identified. If needed, 4327 and 4306 will provide further support. Both the Kovach OBV and the Chande have picked up notably with the bounce we saw off 4350. But it could go either way depending on what the sentiment is this morning at open. We will face resistance from 4389. However, if the S&P can muster enough momentum to break that, our target remains 4408.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Stocks Consolidating!!Stocks are consolidating at highs around 4389. We do appear to be seeing a double top at this level. However we have strong support from current levels at 4364. This could be the consolidation of volatility preceding another breakout. If so, our next target is 4408. If we are wrong we have a few levels of support from below, separated by comparatively large vacuum zones. Watch 4350, 4327, and 4306 for support. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but has started to taper.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have inched out highs at 4389, but have retraced slightly to support at 4364. We may be witnessing a head and shoulders pattern in formation, with a neckline at 4350. However, wait for the second shoulder to fully form before considering a retracement. We still have a great amount of bull momentum, as measured by the Kovach OBV which has only slightly dipped with the pullback. Our next target is 4408, which could easily be reached today if we catch a bid at open.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Breakout on DIS after 120 days inside a Flag PatternToday we will speak about DIS; what are we observing right now? a) The price has been on a Flag Patter for almost 120 days. Yesterday we observed a major breakout of it, and now we have defined confirmation levels for the bullish movement b) Let's speak about the context first: -The price is above a dynamic support resistance zone (positive for the bullish move) -The Price is above the current ascending trendline (positive for the bullish move) -We have observed a clear Weekly flag pattern above all the two areas, and now we have the breakout of it c) Relevant levels: If the price reaches the Green horizontal line, we will consider that as a confirmation for our bullish view. If not, we will not execute the setup. Our stop level and also invalidation level (in case the price never executes our setup) is the red horizontal line (below the flag pattern) d) We have defined two targets using fibo extensions. The first one can be used as a protective area where we move our stop loss to the entry-level or also as a preliminary take-profit zone. However, our final target is the 2nd fibo extension, where we will close all the setup if the expected movement happens. e) How long can the setup take?: If the movement is successful, we think the resolution can be between 150 and 250 days. f) How much would you risk on a setup like this?: ALWAYS 1% to 2% of our capital, Never more than that. Thanks for reading!
NYSE:DIS
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Bullish Filters for NIO Today we will analyze the current scenario on NIO, and we will define what we consider can be a high-quality scenario in case we observe the following structure (confirmation idea). Please, it's important to understand that we are not saying "that will happen." Our trading approach is defining trading scenarios in advance and only trade if those happen. Let's start: a) The price has been moving around the broken ascending trendline. Can the price go above again? That would be key for the bullish perspective b) Ok, what's next? If the price manages to go above the ascending trendline again, we want to see a breakout of the descending trendline (yellow line). There the price reacted and has been falling a 20% c) So, what would be the perfect bullish scenario for us? A breakout of the yellow descending trendline followed by an ABC or ABCDE pattern above or in the edge. IF that happens, we think that a breakout above B would be a great confirmation for new highs. However, we should pay attention to the previous ATH. We hope this was useful to create zones and trading plans. Remember, Risk Management is more important than any analysis or trade.
NYSE:NIO
by ThinkingAntsOk
2
Stocks Ranging Near HighsThe S&P has squeezed out new highs at 4375, coming within a few points of our target of 4380. We are currently at 4354, just above one of our technical support levels of 4350 (once a profit target). The Kovach OBV was pretty strong but has tapered with this retracement. Thus it is likely for stocks to range a bit at current levels in a sideways correction before gearing up for a run at highs again. If not, 4380 is still our target and will provide resistance. From below, 4327 and 4306 will provide support
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Possible Long Position ASP!!ASX:ASP SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY SMP Strategy Market Direction: Long Position Chart time frame - Daily Timeframe - 30 days A – Activating Event Market will meet support in zone @ current levels - ... . In order to enter into this trade, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market will move towards the first Target 1 level @ 0.046 C - Fundamentals that may affect the pair N/A D - Trade Management Entered @ ..... Stop Loss @ ..... Trailing Stop Loss@..... Target 1 @ 0.046 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 1.6.5 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and Keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
ASX:ASPLong
by SMPTrader
Stocks Find Support!!The S&P 500 has found good support at 4293. It barely broke into the 4200 handle before catching a nice burst of momentum that sent us rallying to near highs again. We were anticipating perhaps another bear wave taking us back to more auspicious levels at 4272 or 4245. This still could be the case, but as of now, it appears that a sideways correction is more likely. That is, stocks are set to range in the neighborhood of 4293 and highs at 4364, which we have identified as a new technical level. The Kovach OBV is still quite strong, stuttering only briefly with the selloff so this should be but a brief setback for stocks.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1