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Stocks Retrace GainsThe S&P 500 has found support at 3584 after the CPI dip tested the base of the 3500 handle. We have since solidly recovered the 3500's, with a strong burst of momentum breaking through to 3714, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. We then fell back to support at 3584, and are currently seeing an attempt at a pivot. We identified 3617 and 3624 as two levels where we would see resistance and that is exactly what we are seeing. A red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance at these levels. If we are able to break past them, expect further resistance at 3714. If we retrace, then 3584 should hold, otherwise the base of the 3500 handle should hold as a floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Stocks React to CPI and Retail SalesStocks took a sharp dive after yet another hotter than expected CPI print. We tested 3500, then dip-buyers came in and we subsequently pivoted back to recover the 3600's. More momentum followed and we are currently testing our target highs at 3714. Stocks still look strong despite another flaccid data point in retail sales, which came in relatively weak. If we are able to break through highs, then 3810 is the next target. Otherwise, we can expect support at 3624.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Await CPI DataStocks remain subdued, with the S&P 500 maintaining a narrow range all week and hugging lows. The APAC session suggests that the markets are bracing for another extremely hot CPI figure, which some are saying could still be in the 8% range. A hot figure would confirm the Fed's hawkish stance and stymie hopes of a pivot to more dovish rhetoric. The Kovach OBV is completely flat as the markets await this print. We have a vacuum zone down to 3547, if current levels do not hold. On the other hand, we must break through 3617 and 3624, which have formed a hard uppr bound for now, if we hope to establish higher levels.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Weakness Prevalent in the S&P 500Stocks appear to have bottomed out at 3584, with support confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. As predicted, we made an attempt for higher levels, but two levels at 3617 and 3624 are providing tough resistance. This is exactly what we predicted yesterday. If we are able to break through the next area of resistance is likely 3676. Risk sentiment is still slighted to the risk-off side, so we don't anticipate any significant rally in stocks any time soon. If we fall further, then 3547 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Correct the RallyThe S&P 500 has completely retraced the small rally we saw at the beginning of October as sobering reality smacks down hopeful exhuberance. The markets are pricing in more hawkish rhetoric, and bracing for CPI on Friday. We made a valiant attempt to hit 3800, but quickly rejected the move all the way back to lows at 3584. We are seeing some support from green triangles on the KRI, but the price action is looking weak and if we break through, 3547 is the next level down. A relief rally will hit resistance at 3617 or 3624.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Volkswagen going wild soon Germany's largest carmaker and DAX40 group Volkswagen did not perform well on the stock market in recent months and the share price went south. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, the price lost slightly over 50% or 126€. On the overarching chart picture, however, this sell-off is only part of an overarching correction according to my assessment. The market is catching its breath to be able to survive the upcoming wave 3 well. Due to the current market situation on the indices, especially the strong sell-off in the German economy, the price will probably come down to the 0.887 retracement at the 99€, before the trend direction of the market turns. From there, a price increase of at least 300% is possible on a multi-year level. The 1.618 extension is at 396€ per share.
XETR:VOW3Long
by DavidJankowski
Two Factors Weighing on StocksStocks have wavered as the markets digest higher weekly unemployment rates and new statements from the Fed. The Fed remains unconvinced at how effective the 'Inflation Reduction Act' will be and Kashkari has stated that the Fed has 'more work to do' to bring down inflation. The S&P 500 has topped out at 3810 with multiple red triangles confirming resistance. We are seeing support in the 3750's, suggesting that we may be forming a bull wedge or other consolidation pattern. If things turn south, 3714 should provide support. A breakout could test 3825.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
US OIL not finish yet US OIL still has a correction of at least 30% ahead of it. According to the Elliott Wave calculations, we have seen the end of the correction of the superior 2 in April 2020. Since then, US OIL has risen almost 20000% to the top. Those who were invested then have been able to take good profits. Unfortunately, these times are over. We saw the top at the beginning of the Ukraine war, in March 2022. Since then we are in a correction. The wave (2) mostly builds up to the 0.618 Fibonacci, which is at $59.72 per barrel. Values to $40 and below are also possible due to the pronounced and steep wave 1. Once the correction is extended, OIL will extend a wave (3) and surpass the current top at 125$ per barrel.
TVC:USOILShort
by DavidJankowski
Stocks Rally Expecting A Fed PivotThe S&P 500 rallied off of increased confidence that the Fed will pivot their pervasively hawkish stance. This is likely to be transient and the market was due for a relief rally, anyway. We are currently testing a dense patch of levels in the 3740's, and will face significant resistance here. If we can break through, then 3792 is the next target. If we reject current levels, the most likely scenario, we should have support from 3714 or so, at the base of the 3700 handle.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
More Gloom For Stocks?The S&P 500 has edged lower yet again, showing little buying interest even at these levels. The fourth quarter has just begun and all indications point to more gloom for stocks. We have broken our level at 3584, finding support just above the next level down at 3547. Multiple green triangles on the KRI are suggesting good support here at these levels, but the lack of a buyback suggests we are not out of the woods yet. We are looking incredibly oversold and due for a pullback. If so, we must break through 3610 and 3617, which seem to be providing significant resistance. If we edge down yet again, then 3547 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Will Support Hold for Stocks?The S&P 500 is still in bear-mode, though it appears to have found some support at 3645 as we reported yesterday. We do appear to be seeing some meager consolidation with a narrow range forming between this lower bound and 3714. A red triangle on this level confirms strong resistance. The Kovach OBV does appear to be trekking upward, which may indicate that a relief rally is due. If so, it is not likely we will be able to break past 3749. If we sell off further, 3624 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P 500 Slammed AgainThe S&P 500 has been slammed by recession fears, a hawkish Fed, pervasive risk-off themes in the news, and a potentially disastrous hurricane barreling toward the gulf of Mexico (oil refinery hub) and Florida. We have completely given up the 3700's, and are deep into the 3600's with 3645 providing support at the moment. The Kovach OBV is hugging lows and appears to be very oversold. A relief rally could attempt 3700 again, but otherwise the sentiment is extraordinarily bearish. Our next target is 3624.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
AMZNAMZN formed a double top starting in July of 21 and confirming in November of 21 with a break in January of 2022. Since then we have confirmed on the weekly chart a down trend under key 30 and 40 period averages on the weekly. Typical of bear market rallies there was a 44% rally in price from the lows of June 2022 to August of 2022 when prices hit the moving average and prior support now resistance and rejected sharply to the downside wiping out pretty much all of these "gainz". Personally I would not want exposure to the market at all. I have been opting for the shortest possible maturity treasuries (i.e. cash) and keep rolling that till opportunities look better. I have had this positioning since November of 21. Only recently have I made any moves and the exposure I have been taking has been on the short side via put contacts taken during rallies, my opinion is prices will continue to decline.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by EconRuminations
SPX SUMMER RALLY BREAKING DOWN? With the SPX rallying over 18% from trough to peak over the last few weeks it looks like the recent upward trend could be under threat. As we can see on the chart above price is threatening to breach the lower third standard deviation (-3SD) off the linear mean at 4058.16. Given the high central tendency of signal to revert toward the linear mean(Pearson’s R^2 = 0.92), a deviation this far to the edge of the regression channel is not insignificant. We can also see that our 1 day RSI has gone below its midline into bearish trend territory and our MACD has rolled over with signal exhibiting wide downside divergence at the mouth. These are not bullish signals. If SPX price action fails to bounce back into the channel next week and falls firmly below the 4K line for a couple days or touches down to the 3850 price region, either of those would be enough to shatter the recent rally from a structural perspective. (Not financial advice.)
SP:SPX
by The_Firewalker
1
Stocks Make New Lows After the FOMCStocks got slammed yesterday, breaking through lows in the 3800's. We anticipated support at the base of the 3800 handle, but the S&P 500 broke down even lower, currently feeling out the highs of the 3700 handle. At this time, 3758 has provided support and we appear to be attempting a push back to the 3800's. The FOMC meeting came out more hawkish than expected. Although we did get the projected 75 bps hike, the rhetoric of Powell's press conference that followed was quite somber and the markets did not get the dovishness they expected. They've reacted accordingly with this selloff. If we are able to break through current levels then 3825 is the next target. If not, 3758 should hold as a floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy