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Pinpointing the Cycle BottomPinpointing the cycle bottom is pretty much impossible but we will give it a go anyways. This Gann Fan you see on the chart has had amazing reactions in the past : 1. Covid crash bottom hit 8/1 Gann perfectly 2. Covid weekly candles closing on 3/1 Gann 3. Price hovering over 2/1 Gann before starting the bullrun. Amazing reactions last couple of years so hopefully we can still use it as a template for things to come. So I have narrowed down a possible timeframe and price where Bitcoin could bottom , somewhere inside this red circle price could find a cycle bottom, between 14k -16.5k. Could we wick lower than the 3/1 Gann yes but to close under it I highly doubt it. Also there is a Fib Date coming up week of 18th July 2022 , last two times we had moves to the upside infact the last one was amazing and pinpointing that massive pivot up last july.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
Stocks Dump on Recession FearsStocks have taken a dive, off renewed recession fears. We anticipated resistance at highs, and if you recall from yesterday, we surmised that if momentum was insufficient to break the relative highs at the time, a dump was likely. That is exactly what happened. We were barely able to peak above 3758, but failed to test the next level at 3792. Subsequently, we slid back to 3694, where we are currently seeing some support. We could see a further selloff to lows, however, it is likely that stocks will range between 3645 and 3792.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can Stocks Breakout??The S&P 500 has gradually trended up, suffering from low liquidity and thin trading from the holiday yesterday. We are encroaching upon the lows of the value area from last week. The small uptrend appears weak, and if we don't see momentum come through at the open, then we will surely dump to lower levels, with 3676, 3658 or 3645 likely targets. If we are able to break out then 3825 is the next target. The Kovach OBV is trending bullishly, but make sure momentum is confirmed at open before entering a long position.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Gearing Up for a Rally??Stocks appear to have bottomed for now, forming a bull wedge consolidation pattern at lows. The level 3624 appears to be a hard lower bound for now. We are due for a relief rally, as stocks are broadly oversold. If so, 3825 is a likely ceiling, as it is a relative high from last week. However, the value area between 3714 and 3792 seems a reasonable target if we are able to break out. If things turn south, then 3624 should provide support, but if not, we are clear to test the lows of the 3600 handle.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
When Will Stocks Bottom?The S&P 500 dipped further, breaking through to the high 3600's, before a brief retracement attempted to reestablish the 3700's. At the time of this writing, we are currently wavering at 3700 exactly. The Kovach OBV is flattening out suggesting that we will not see much more action until momentum comes through. It is likely we will range at some point to establish value in this new price territory. We expect stocks to hold their ground between 3644 and 3737. As we mentioned yesterday, 3823 is a likely ceiling and 3624 the floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
The FOMC Didn't Help StocksThe FOMC event did little to appease the stock market yesterday. To combat inflation at 40 year highs, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the largest hike since 1994 . This was largely priced in and we saw a brief relief rally in equities, which was quickly faded, and we have since broken support to establish new relative lows. The level 3714 was our last technical level in the 3700 handle, and we have now broken into the 3600's, finding support at 3694. We are currently seeing a smaall pivot off of this level, and support is confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 3700's, but if we can sustain momentum, then 3823 is a likely ceiling. If we sell off further, 3624 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Mayer Multiple Extremely Rare signal!The Mayer Multiple has officially turned black! Let's go over how rare this signal truly is! October 2011 / 85days - Price 2.13 Dollars January 2015 / 9days - Price 178 Dollars December 2018 / 11days - Price 3300 Dollars Average of 35days with 2011 included without 2011 we talking about 10days average , this is by far the rarest Bitcoin oversold signal you're going to get. Now the lowest Mayer Multiple Band is 18.2k which is in line with the last CME GAP! Last time we hit the lowest band was March 2020 covid crash which tapped it perfectly! This could be the key at pinpointing the bottom. The question is when , well it could very well happen this week since bitcoin has never closed under a 200 weekly moving average. If Bitcoin did hit 18.4k close to the CME GAP then close the week above 22.3k which would be the 200 weekly. something like this playing out CME TA - Mayer TA- Mayer's ratio is at 0.55 ,very interesting times!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
1
One more Gap left?Not posted a TA about gaps in years , not traded a gap in years , once we blasted off in December 2020 and hit 50k range I thought no chance we fill the two gaps (yellow circles) , gaps are a thing of the past no longer get filled..... 536 days later we fill the 25k to 27k gap and no we have one more gap to fill at 18.3k , this could be the bottom filling this dam CME gap , after this gap we have no lower gaps to fill only the new one created recently (blue circle). CME is currently at 20k just 2k off the last lower gap to be filled if filling this gap is not the bottom and worst case max pain price would most likely be 14k. Its also important to note that Bitcoin has never closed a weekly candle under the 200 weekly moving average and right now we are 10% under the 200 weekly .
CME:BTC1!
by Sporia
2
Bitcoin as I see itNow, I am not dubbed the Nostradamus of Bitcoin or Crypto. I have had some pretty farfetched ideas for short and long term ideas. However, I see a few different (Most likely wrong) possibilities for Bitcoin in the short - medium term: I have 2 different "Bullish" and 2 different "Bearish" scenarios to get wrong! Bullcase 1 (blue opaque line): This could be a very nice dead cat bounce like the 2020 March Crash, leading to a new ATH Bullcase 2 (green drawn line): This is similar to the first scenario, however this one i see taking a little more time. Macroeconomics play more into this play ie interest rate hikes not being as high as previously thought or crypto adoption. Bearcase 1 (black opaque line): a short term bearish continued drop to the lower orange line around $21k-$22k and few month hiatus of battling the $27k range. Fighting resistances along the way, but will take longer to reach a decent $50k zone Bearcase 2: (Red drawn line): A repeat of the "Crypto Winter" that happened in 2018 into 2019. Much like Bearcase 1, a drop to the $21k-$22k level and a slow upwards movement. This one I think could be more likely given the current Macroeconomics (I use this word only because I feel as though it makes me look smart). This will take longer, but gives a lot more buying opportunities for our long term goals! If you read through all of this, I appreciate it so much! I hope my rambling makes sense, and maybe one day this "crazy cat person" might get something right :)
by blewis08
Bitcoin Roadmap V3Today we shall give a go at timing the Bitcoin cycle once more. This year I have been correct in my perspective going as far back as January 2022. I had been eyeing the Bitcoin cycle bottom in May , check it out below. Even executing the best trade of my career yet, riding that short down straight into capitulation. It's been a good year so far so the question is what happens next. So right now Bitcoin is sitting on this diagonal trendline that started off the bullrun late 2020 , if this holds we could see upside movement the next 10 months. Personally I don't like diagonal trend lines most of the time they fail so I don't trade them. If it does hold , what could play out is a move up to the top of the 8/1 Gann Fann sometime June 2023 which also aligns with 0.618 fib. "hint" , sell in June 2023" If prices come up to 50k june 2023 and get rejected off the 8/1 we will then start the shift back down to 25k sometime July 2024 ,why 25k? well if 25k is the cycle bottom Bitcoin always comes down and retests the cycle bottom and creates a double bottom before the bullrun starts. This has happened every cycle even in 2011 , take a look We always come back down to retest. Last cycle the relief rally after the cycle bottom was rejected at the 0.618. This is why I have marked June 2023 as a potential date of a macro shift downwards because the 0.618 and top of the 8/1 Gann Fann line up closely . If Bitcoin did create a double bottom then we could say 25k hit on the 3/1 Gann sometime July 2024 and then the cycle double bottom is complete, after that sometime sept 2025 to break the 8/1 Gann and start the next Bullrun which would peak sometime Oct 2026. The question everyone has been debating for weeks now is , if the bottom is in ! My opinion is that it is in fact in , the herd are waiting for lower prices , there is mass fear in the world , CPI is 8.6% highest since 1981 , everyone is scared to buy , everyone is eyeing the 200 weekly and when everyone starts eyeing the same thing what tends to happen , the opposite . I'm going to go against the herd on this one and say the Bitcoin cycle bottom is most likely in , did that capitulation wick feel like a bottom? no it didn't but guess what didn't feel like a top either , Bitcoin at 65k in April 2021. The bottom never feels like a bottom and the top never feels like a top if it did timing the market would be easy. Why do most traders expect price to hit the 200 weekly like past cycles when it didn't hit the top of any band this cycle as a top , we didn't even get a blow off top. I go over this TA on the mayer multiple and how we are at a historically low ratio for Bitcoin price.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
3
Stocks Finally Break DownStocks have finally broken out of the range they have been holding since the end of May. The S&P 500 has remained confined between 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern, and 4214. The neckline of the inverse H&S is a strong technical level and the fact that we have broken down past it is not a good sign for stocks. We found support below after crossing the vacuum zone to 4009. This is the last technical level of the 4K's. After that, we have 3978. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but it is likely that we will range for now, establishing value at current levels. If we are able to rally, 4068 should provide strong resistance, and should be considered a price target for tnose looking to trade the range.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Will Stocks Breakout Soon??Volatility in stocks has continued to consolidate, and we are broadly forming a pennant pattern. We are seeing consistently lower higs, starting from 4214, which is the level we must break before attempting higher levels. The neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern at 4068, seems to be providing good support, and lows have recently tended just above this level. The Kovach OBV is still fairly flat, so we will need a lot more momentum to properly break out. We must break through 4214 before we can consider higher levels and hit our next target of 4306. If 4068 fails to provide support then 4009 is our next level of support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
This is the 6th correction on S&P500 since 2009. In today's post, we will compare the current correction in S&P500 with all the similar corrections that happened since the beginning of the bull market in 2009 (the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis). Why are we doing this? Because in the market, no situation is completely new, and by understanding similar situations in the past, and the following resolutions, we can get a good idea of how to react to the present. I will be using the following parameters. Every decline of 15% or more will be considered a major correction. Under those parameters, we have 6 situations to analyze. 2010 / 2011 / 2015 / 2018 / 2020 (I bet you remember that) / 2022 (now). The information that you will see in the following pictures is: a) % Decline b) Duration from the beginning of the correction until the bottom of it. c) The most external trendline of the corrections. 2010 2011 2015 2018 2020 2022 Alright. So how can I use this? You can use this in several ways. The most basic way is looking for patterns in specific areas you are interested in. For example, one of the main tools I use to look for setups is waiting for the breakout of the most external trendlines of corrections and then looking for corrective movements that I can use to set entry and stop levels. But that's my style. So you can use yours, like taking each of these scenarios and using moving averages, indicators, or whatever you prefer. The key aspect here is that I have classified similar situations in terms of decline and Duration. Now it's up to you to develop setups around this, and you can test how your parameters would have worked on 5 scenarios in the past. If you see a clear edge, then you have a great opportunity to plan your next setup. Thanks for reading! If you have ideas in mind, I would love to see what parameters you can come up with in the comments. Like "I have tested X, W, Z," and this was my result.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
S&P 500 Consolidates the Range SlightlyThe S&P 500 has continued the range between 4068 and 4214 or so. The upper bound of this range seems to be waning, with lower highs possibly suggesting we may be forming a bear wedge or flag. Either way, volatility does seem to be consolidating slightly, which in the long run portends a breakout. The Kovach OBV is drifting up, which may signify a bull divergence, potentially giving bulls some hope. Keep in mind there is a vacuum zone below 4068, which is the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed early May. If we break this, we are clear to test the lows of the 4000 handle again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Test Relative HighsStocks caught a strong pivot off of our relative low. The relative low of 4068 is significant because it coincides with the neckline of the failed inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from last week. We saw strong support from this level as confirmed by a double bottom with two green triangles on the KRI. We are not quite ready to call a bottom for stocks and a subsequent bull rally, but the fact that 4068 is holding is encouraging. We noted yesterday that our target for stocks was 4219, which we anticipated to hold as a ceiling for now. Sure enough, stocks are testing highs, falling just shy of our target at 4188. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but not enough to suggest there is much more in the tank. But if we are able to break 4219, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support?Stocks have retraced, hitting our exact target of 4068 and finding support. Recall that this was the head of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed mid May. Failed inverse H&S patterns are usually bearish omens and stocks were in the doldrums for basically the rest of May. However toward the end of the month, we were able to break out, but 4068 remains a strong level. We were able to make a run for 4200, but met resistance and retraced. Currently we are ranging in the vacuum zone between 4068 and 4122. The S&P 500 may attempt to establish here. If we retrace further watch the vacuum zone below to 4009. The high just below 4214 should serve as a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Janet, Jerome and Joe all got together yesterday and it's fair to say they all agree they want more pain before more gain ("do anything it takes to bring down inflation"), and they want it mainly to be done through monetary policy (Fed). Fed also started rolling off TS and MBS today.* Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. Price is currently trending down at $4100 after being rejected by $4175 resistance on the first test. Volume remains moderate and is on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3869, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 50.24 after getting rejected on a retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 91. MACD is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 after breaking out above -76.22 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 23 as Price is attempting to continue rallying, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $4175 resistance before attempting to test the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4400. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel at $4000 before potentially falling lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Momentum Fades for StocksStocks appear to have topped out for now just under our level at 4214. We've since retraced, finding support at 4122, just above the vacuum zone to 4068. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI which confirm the support. It seems that stocks are ranging and establishing value between 4122 and 4178. Optimistically, we might be forming a bull flag pattern, however the Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through to break out of it. If so, we must break through 4214 before we can hit our next target of 4306. If support does not hold, watch the vacuum zone below to 4068.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy