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The FOMC Didn't Help StocksThe FOMC event did little to appease the stock market yesterday. To combat inflation at 40 year highs, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the largest hike since 1994 . This was largely priced in and we saw a brief relief rally in equities, which was quickly faded, and we have since broken support to establish new relative lows. The level 3714 was our last technical level in the 3700 handle, and we have now broken into the 3600's, finding support at 3694. We are currently seeing a smaall pivot off of this level, and support is confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 3700's, but if we can sustain momentum, then 3823 is a likely ceiling. If we sell off further, 3624 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Mayer Multiple Extremely Rare signal!The Mayer Multiple has officially turned black! Let's go over how rare this signal truly is! October 2011 / 85days - Price 2.13 Dollars January 2015 / 9days - Price 178 Dollars December 2018 / 11days - Price 3300 Dollars Average of 35days with 2011 included without 2011 we talking about 10days average , this is by far the rarest Bitcoin oversold signal you're going to get. Now the lowest Mayer Multiple Band is 18.2k which is in line with the last CME GAP! Last time we hit the lowest band was March 2020 covid crash which tapped it perfectly! This could be the key at pinpointing the bottom. The question is when , well it could very well happen this week since bitcoin has never closed under a 200 weekly moving average. If Bitcoin did hit 18.4k close to the CME GAP then close the week above 22.3k which would be the 200 weekly. something like this playing out CME TA - Mayer TA- Mayer's ratio is at 0.55 ,very interesting times!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
1
One more Gap left?Not posted a TA about gaps in years , not traded a gap in years , once we blasted off in December 2020 and hit 50k range I thought no chance we fill the two gaps (yellow circles) , gaps are a thing of the past no longer get filled..... 536 days later we fill the 25k to 27k gap and no we have one more gap to fill at 18.3k , this could be the bottom filling this dam CME gap , after this gap we have no lower gaps to fill only the new one created recently (blue circle). CME is currently at 20k just 2k off the last lower gap to be filled if filling this gap is not the bottom and worst case max pain price would most likely be 14k. Its also important to note that Bitcoin has never closed a weekly candle under the 200 weekly moving average and right now we are 10% under the 200 weekly .
CME:BTC1!
by Sporia
2
Bitcoin as I see itNow, I am not dubbed the Nostradamus of Bitcoin or Crypto. I have had some pretty farfetched ideas for short and long term ideas. However, I see a few different (Most likely wrong) possibilities for Bitcoin in the short - medium term: I have 2 different "Bullish" and 2 different "Bearish" scenarios to get wrong! Bullcase 1 (blue opaque line): This could be a very nice dead cat bounce like the 2020 March Crash, leading to a new ATH Bullcase 2 (green drawn line): This is similar to the first scenario, however this one i see taking a little more time. Macroeconomics play more into this play ie interest rate hikes not being as high as previously thought or crypto adoption. Bearcase 1 (black opaque line): a short term bearish continued drop to the lower orange line around $21k-$22k and few month hiatus of battling the $27k range. Fighting resistances along the way, but will take longer to reach a decent $50k zone Bearcase 2: (Red drawn line): A repeat of the "Crypto Winter" that happened in 2018 into 2019. Much like Bearcase 1, a drop to the $21k-$22k level and a slow upwards movement. This one I think could be more likely given the current Macroeconomics (I use this word only because I feel as though it makes me look smart). This will take longer, but gives a lot more buying opportunities for our long term goals! If you read through all of this, I appreciate it so much! I hope my rambling makes sense, and maybe one day this "crazy cat person" might get something right :)
by blewis08
Bitcoin Roadmap V3Today we shall give a go at timing the Bitcoin cycle once more. This year I have been correct in my perspective going as far back as January 2022. I had been eyeing the Bitcoin cycle bottom in May , check it out below. Even executing the best trade of my career yet, riding that short down straight into capitulation. It's been a good year so far so the question is what happens next. So right now Bitcoin is sitting on this diagonal trendline that started off the bullrun late 2020 , if this holds we could see upside movement the next 10 months. Personally I don't like diagonal trend lines most of the time they fail so I don't trade them. If it does hold , what could play out is a move up to the top of the 8/1 Gann Fann sometime June 2023 which also aligns with 0.618 fib. "hint" , sell in June 2023" If prices come up to 50k june 2023 and get rejected off the 8/1 we will then start the shift back down to 25k sometime July 2024 ,why 25k? well if 25k is the cycle bottom Bitcoin always comes down and retests the cycle bottom and creates a double bottom before the bullrun starts. This has happened every cycle even in 2011 , take a look We always come back down to retest. Last cycle the relief rally after the cycle bottom was rejected at the 0.618. This is why I have marked June 2023 as a potential date of a macro shift downwards because the 0.618 and top of the 8/1 Gann Fann line up closely . If Bitcoin did create a double bottom then we could say 25k hit on the 3/1 Gann sometime July 2024 and then the cycle double bottom is complete, after that sometime sept 2025 to break the 8/1 Gann and start the next Bullrun which would peak sometime Oct 2026. The question everyone has been debating for weeks now is , if the bottom is in ! My opinion is that it is in fact in , the herd are waiting for lower prices , there is mass fear in the world , CPI is 8.6% highest since 1981 , everyone is scared to buy , everyone is eyeing the 200 weekly and when everyone starts eyeing the same thing what tends to happen , the opposite . I'm going to go against the herd on this one and say the Bitcoin cycle bottom is most likely in , did that capitulation wick feel like a bottom? no it didn't but guess what didn't feel like a top either , Bitcoin at 65k in April 2021. The bottom never feels like a bottom and the top never feels like a top if it did timing the market would be easy. Why do most traders expect price to hit the 200 weekly like past cycles when it didn't hit the top of any band this cycle as a top , we didn't even get a blow off top. I go over this TA on the mayer multiple and how we are at a historically low ratio for Bitcoin price.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
3
Stocks Finally Break DownStocks have finally broken out of the range they have been holding since the end of May. The S&P 500 has remained confined between 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern, and 4214. The neckline of the inverse H&S is a strong technical level and the fact that we have broken down past it is not a good sign for stocks. We found support below after crossing the vacuum zone to 4009. This is the last technical level of the 4K's. After that, we have 3978. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but it is likely that we will range for now, establishing value at current levels. If we are able to rally, 4068 should provide strong resistance, and should be considered a price target for tnose looking to trade the range.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Will Stocks Breakout Soon??Volatility in stocks has continued to consolidate, and we are broadly forming a pennant pattern. We are seeing consistently lower higs, starting from 4214, which is the level we must break before attempting higher levels. The neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern at 4068, seems to be providing good support, and lows have recently tended just above this level. The Kovach OBV is still fairly flat, so we will need a lot more momentum to properly break out. We must break through 4214 before we can consider higher levels and hit our next target of 4306. If 4068 fails to provide support then 4009 is our next level of support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
This is the 6th correction on S&P500 since 2009. In today's post, we will compare the current correction in S&P500 with all the similar corrections that happened since the beginning of the bull market in 2009 (the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis). Why are we doing this? Because in the market, no situation is completely new, and by understanding similar situations in the past, and the following resolutions, we can get a good idea of how to react to the present. I will be using the following parameters. Every decline of 15% or more will be considered a major correction. Under those parameters, we have 6 situations to analyze. 2010 / 2011 / 2015 / 2018 / 2020 (I bet you remember that) / 2022 (now). The information that you will see in the following pictures is: a) % Decline b) Duration from the beginning of the correction until the bottom of it. c) The most external trendline of the corrections. 2010 2011 2015 2018 2020 2022 Alright. So how can I use this? You can use this in several ways. The most basic way is looking for patterns in specific areas you are interested in. For example, one of the main tools I use to look for setups is waiting for the breakout of the most external trendlines of corrections and then looking for corrective movements that I can use to set entry and stop levels. But that's my style. So you can use yours, like taking each of these scenarios and using moving averages, indicators, or whatever you prefer. The key aspect here is that I have classified similar situations in terms of decline and Duration. Now it's up to you to develop setups around this, and you can test how your parameters would have worked on 5 scenarios in the past. If you see a clear edge, then you have a great opportunity to plan your next setup. Thanks for reading! If you have ideas in mind, I would love to see what parameters you can come up with in the comments. Like "I have tested X, W, Z," and this was my result.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
7
S&P 500 Consolidates the Range SlightlyThe S&P 500 has continued the range between 4068 and 4214 or so. The upper bound of this range seems to be waning, with lower highs possibly suggesting we may be forming a bear wedge or flag. Either way, volatility does seem to be consolidating slightly, which in the long run portends a breakout. The Kovach OBV is drifting up, which may signify a bull divergence, potentially giving bulls some hope. Keep in mind there is a vacuum zone below 4068, which is the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed early May. If we break this, we are clear to test the lows of the 4000 handle again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Test Relative HighsStocks caught a strong pivot off of our relative low. The relative low of 4068 is significant because it coincides with the neckline of the failed inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from last week. We saw strong support from this level as confirmed by a double bottom with two green triangles on the KRI. We are not quite ready to call a bottom for stocks and a subsequent bull rally, but the fact that 4068 is holding is encouraging. We noted yesterday that our target for stocks was 4219, which we anticipated to hold as a ceiling for now. Sure enough, stocks are testing highs, falling just shy of our target at 4188. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but not enough to suggest there is much more in the tank. But if we are able to break 4219, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Finding Support?Stocks have retraced, hitting our exact target of 4068 and finding support. Recall that this was the head of the inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed mid May. Failed inverse H&S patterns are usually bearish omens and stocks were in the doldrums for basically the rest of May. However toward the end of the month, we were able to break out, but 4068 remains a strong level. We were able to make a run for 4200, but met resistance and retraced. Currently we are ranging in the vacuum zone between 4068 and 4122. The S&P 500 may attempt to establish here. If we retrace further watch the vacuum zone below to 4009. The high just below 4214 should serve as a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
SPX/USD Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX/USD Daily neutral with a bearish bias. *Janet, Jerome and Joe all got together yesterday and it's fair to say they all agree they want more pain before more gain ("do anything it takes to bring down inflation"), and they want it mainly to be done through monetary policy (Fed). Fed also started rolling off TS and MBS today.* Recommended ratio: 40% SPX, 60% Cash. Price is currently trending down at $4100 after being rejected by $4175 resistance on the first test. Volume remains moderate and is on track to favor sellers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3869, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 50.24 after getting rejected on a retest of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 91. MACD is currently testing the uptrend line from March 2020 at -44 after breaking out above -76.22 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 23 as Price is attempting to continue rallying, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest $4175 resistance before attempting to test the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4400. However, if Price continues to break down here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel at $4000 before potentially falling lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Momentum Fades for StocksStocks appear to have topped out for now just under our level at 4214. We've since retraced, finding support at 4122, just above the vacuum zone to 4068. We are seeing several green triangles on the KRI which confirm the support. It seems that stocks are ranging and establishing value between 4122 and 4178. Optimistically, we might be forming a bull flag pattern, however the Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through to break out of it. If so, we must break through 4214 before we can hit our next target of 4306. If support does not hold, watch the vacuum zone below to 4068.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Surge as China ReopensThe S&P 500 has broken out of the malaise it has held all of last week. China seems to be reopening which has investors breathing a sigh of relief. After the inverse head and shoulders breakdown, we saw tremendous resistance and stocks were in the doldrums, hovering in the 3800-3900 range with 4K a hard upper bound. The neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern provided strong resistance as we had predicted all of last week. Finally, we were able to break out from this level, smashing through our previous targets at 4122 and 4144, and reaching a new relative high just above 4200. We are starting to face resistance from a congestion zone from the end of April, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just below 4214. We are finding support at 4144, and should see continued support from 4122, but if not, we are set to cross the vacuum zone to 4068, the neckline of our failed inverse H&S pattern. The next target is 4306, a relative high from the very beginning of May.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Explaining the moves on the S&P500So far this correction on the S&P has been extremely orderly and makes a lot of sense. A lot of things are very similar to the 2018 correction, especially when it comes to how the market has moved. The key differences in the current environment are that the Fed hasn't raised rates as much, inflation is a lot higher, debt is a lower higher, the economy is in a worse shape, energy is a lot more expensive and markets are still a lot higher than they were back then. Yet volatility hasn't gotten out of control and the market is moving in an orderly fashion. Now the key reasons as to why stocks have fallen so much are: 1) Future earnings have been revised downwards due to bad economic conditions and deglobalization, 2) Inflation is hurting a lot of companies as their expenses keep going up, 3) Inflation has caused markets and the Fed to raise rates, something that has put a lot of pressure on everyone that wants to borrow or has borrowed money ( funds, governments, corporates, retail), 4) Markets were significantly elevated and the valuations of many companies were unreasonable. At the moment the market is bouncing as many investors got extremely bearish. The sentiment everywhere was so bearish, and although I personally don't think the bottom is in, I believed a relief rally was going to come. Why? Well, let's start with some fundamental and technical analysis and see how we got here... Since Mar 2021 inflation started getting hot, while certain sectors of the market started getting hit. In November inflation became too hot and the Fed made clear that it would fight inflation by raising rates and stopping QE. In December and January the market had an ordinary dip down to the May-June 2021 highs, swept some key lows and bounced. In February as inflation wasn't going down and Russia was positioning to invade Ukraine, markets started becoming fearful and fell enough to fill a double gap on SPY, and bottomed soon after Russia invaded Ukraine. Fear had reached a peak at that time, but the bounce wasn't all that strong as the Fed was still planning to do its first rate hike. Soon the market rolled over again without making a new low. Once the market swept a low on SPX but not on SPY it bounced hard just a few days before the Fed meeting. After the Fed meeting it rallied hard and went up to the Jan-Feb triple top, swept the highs, hit resistance and partially filled an open gap. The same way the market went for the highs and the gap in its reach for liquidity (hunting stops), then went for the lows and the gaps lower, as there were several of them. The drop begun before the next Fed meeting, and on the second Fed meeting they raised rates by 0.5%. They also made clear that they didn't plan any hikes larger than 0.5%, something that initially caused the market to spike higher, as it interpreted the news as bullish, while also expecting the second meeting to play out like the first one. However that wasn't the case and the market crumbled lower soon after. Investors had the wrong expectations and the market was still heavy. Once the market fell by 20%, it paused, but as it had formed a cheeky triple bottom, it made a final push lower before bouncing higher. It also hit the Monthly S3 which is a great place to bottom, consolidated a bit and then bounced hard. It has now reclaimed key support levels and could go up to 430-440 (4300-4400) in order to take out the triple top and retest the key breakdown zone, along with the Yearly Pivot. What could come after this is unclear. In my opinion inflation has peaked and although it will probably be positive YoY, as bonds yields have started coming down and the terminal rate seems to be around 2-3%, the Fed might slow down a bit. They might start being more dovish in their next meetings as they don't want to push things too much. Inflation is already coming down in the US due to a strong dollar, equities collapsing, a much lower growth in the money supply and with QT starting in June. At the same time however, the energy and food shortages could become so extreme, something that the bond market probably already knows that and that's why it looks shaky. Things are so bad for ordinary people, that if the Fed & government don't start to support everyone in need, things could get very ugly. Therefore bond yields coming down along with inflation could simply be a short term pause and nothing more than that. Maybe in a few months they could resume higher, putting additional pressure on stocks. In my opinion stocks could rally by another 5-6% before rolling over again, although I am not sure whether the bottom is in or not. I tend to believe it isn't, and that stocks would need to fall 5-15% from their recent low, but wouldn't be surprised if they go up 5%, drop 7% and then go higher again.
AMEX:SPY
by BitcoinMacro
1
Stocks Meet Resistance EXACTLY at Our Level!!The S&P 500 has broken out from the upper 3000's and made a run for higher levels. We faced pretty steep resistance from 3978, about the midpoint of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that failed inverse H&S patterns are usually a bearish sign, and we have been in the doldrums all week. We also noted several times that the neckline of the failed pattern would provide significant and prohibitive resistance. This is exactly what we are seeing. Though the S&P 500 has broken out, it is currently facing resistance exactly at the neckline at 4068, confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has trended up, but tapered and flattened with the resistance. We will need more momentum to break through. If so, the next targets are 4122 and 4144. If we retrace, then 3978 should provide support again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stock local bottom in for a while?All 3 major US indices hit major key levels and bounced nicely. The S&P500 swept several lows and formed a nice bottom. It also hit the S3 Monthly pivot and has now reclaimed the S1 Yearly pivot, and is looking fairly strong. The Nasdaq 100 swept the November low, right before the huge rally begun, and partially filled a large gap on NDX/QQQ. The Russell 2000 hit the 2018-2020 highs, and like the Nasdaq, it essentially retraced the entire election/vaccine trade. Based on all the above, the bottom could be in, especially as the SPX corrected by 21% and the other two by more than 30%. However there are many key resistances levels above, and it doesn't feel like we've seen capitulation yet. Not only that, but not all key areas have been hit. I could see the SPX getting to the Sep-Nov 2021 highs, while the NDX and RUT would fully fill the gap from the vaccine/election trade. Essentially I'd like to see the SPX get properly oversold as so far it is simply as oversold as it was in Dec 2018, yet valuations are way more extreme and charts look a lot worse, as well as seeing the NDX & RUT hit their S3 Yearly Pivots and sweep a few more lows. For example the RUT has formed a double bottom right above the gap, and that's why I think we have at least one more push. Doesn't mean the market is going to melt down and that we'll get a huge bear market, but as the typical bear market for the S&P is about 30%, I'd like to see it at least get down there. Until then though, I do believe the SPX could get up to 4300-4400. I believe a local bottom could be in and a 10% bear market rally is possible here. My target is the key breakdown zone at 4360 that was never retested, along with the triple top at 4300. Getting up the Yearly pivot before getting smacked down again is more likely in my opinion than going straight down from here. In my opinion people got extremely bearish, while the market got extremely oversold, hit major targets and at the same time inflation seems to have peaked.
FX:SPX500
by BitcoinMacro