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CPS likely to continue downtrendBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 3, 2022 with a closing price of 5.72. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 5.675 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.502% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.91% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 9.026% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9.5 trading bars; half occur within 20.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34.0 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:CPSShort
by StockSignaler
OLED looks overbought again, time for snapback?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 3, 2022 with a closing price of 124.42. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 123.68 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.843% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.8475% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.939499999999999% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 5.0 trading bars; half occur within 16.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31.5 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:OLEDShort
by StockSignaler
June swoon about to hit Starbucks stock?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 1, 2022 with a closing price of 76.28. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 75.47 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.684% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.604% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 13.653% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 14 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by StockSignaler
NBHC about to correct with the rest of market?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 40.89. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 40.73 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.425% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.254% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.606% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 24 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 37 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:NBHCShort
by StockSignaler
Will Laredo Petroleum correct its rally soon?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 83.65. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 83.11 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.226% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.355% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 15.97% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 18 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 34 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
LShort
by StockSignaler
Pending drop may not create a lower low for APAMBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 26, 2022 with a closing price of 37.49. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 37.28 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.643% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.675% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.234% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 11 trading bars; half occur within 21 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 33 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:APAMShort
by StockSignaler
Marvell Technology appears to have set a bull trapBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 59.8. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 59.55 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.956% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.897% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.432% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 43 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:MRVLShort
by StockSignaler
Cleveland-Cliffs has overbought signal on my RSIBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 24.56. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 24.42 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.961% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.296% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 9.712% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 8 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 46 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:CLFShort
by StockSignaler
3
Blackstone Inc joins the overbought clubBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 26, 2022 with a closing price of 118.28. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 117.58 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.609% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.353% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 9.08% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 29 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:BXShort
by StockSignaler
Steel Dynamics is overbought according to thisBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 85.6795. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 84.85 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.103% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.89% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 8.016% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 36 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:STLDShort
by StockSignaler
Finally time to buy the dip...in 2 weeksI warned of this bull trap and we should now be in the final leg down. Today’s close kissed the top of the trend channel as it remained in the projected zone discussed in my recent analysis. The market could open up tomorrow, but most likely should not. Today’s highs should not get tested for at least a few more weeks. Next stop is the basement of this bear market. To recap, all five purple boxes were general estimates of where each wave should end IF Primary C were to last 37-46 days while it drops 863.93-1117.41. So far, the end of waves can be identified in each box. If the prior analysis is accurate we should bottom no later than June 3rd. The larger green box was the estimated market bottom based on relationships between Cycle waves 1 and this wave 2 as well as Primary waves A and B in relation to this wave C. The better news is that the intermediate wave data not only fit in the larger box, it narrowed the target zone. I have a final few data points that could further narrow the target bottoms. I calculate the wave extensions which determines the percent that wave 5 moves in relation to wave 3 while using the same starting point which was the end of wave 2 (beginning of wave 3). Considering all intermediate wave 5 data, the first quartile of data states that 75% of all intermediate wave 5s move at least 110.98% of wave 3’s movement. The 50% of all intermediate wave 5s move 127.12%, while 25% of all data extends 147.53%. Additionally, the average move is 136%. All of these levels are identified on the chart with the light blue lines. I further studied intermediate wave 5s inside of Primary C waves. These levels utilize the green lines on the chart. This data has 75% of the intermediate wave 5s moving 110.98%, 50% moving 120.85%, 25% moving 133.13%. The average move is 123.53%. Nearly all of these data points land in the large green and small purple target boxes previously mentioned. All told my target bottoms appear valid. Time will tell, but we are looking at another rough drop (around 10%) in about 2 weeks. I still think an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the only thing to reverse markets quickly. That war will likely only come to an end if something happens to Putin.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Bottom in sight; bull trap aheadThus far, Primary wave C is difficult to determine where the internal waves are located. We have either seen the end of Intermediate waves 1 and/or 3 or something else. The projection is for Primary wave C to last 37-46 days while it drops 863.93-1117.41 points. If this range is valid, where should each intermediate wave end? This analysis will determine potential identifiers for tracking the downward movement. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 1 typically contributes 11-30% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 53%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 14 days and up to 24 days at the most. Waves ending in C1 (Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 1) typically make up 11-34% with a maximum of 41%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 16 days and no more than 21. Waves ending in 2C1 typically make up 11-33% with a maximum of 39.77%. This means wave 1 could last 4 to 15 days and no more than 18 days. Cumulatively, wave 1 could last 4 to 15 days and no more than 18. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 1 tends to contribute 33-59% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 104%. This means wave 1 could drop 292.48 to 669.10 with a maximum drop of 1162.11. Waves ending in C1 typically move 26-66% of the larger wave with a maximum at 91%. This means wave 1 could drop 227.64 to 735.48 with a maximum of 1016.84. Lastly, waves ending in 2C1 move 31-77% with a continued maximum of 91%. This means wave 1 could drop 272.65 to 867.64. Using these ranges, Intermediate wave 1 could bottom between 3769.66-4409.66 with middle ground between 3968.2-4409.66. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 2 typically contributes 5-12% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 35%. This means wave 2 could last 1 to 6 days and up to 16 days at the most. Waves ending in C2 typically make up 6-12% with a maximum of 25%. This means wave 1 could last 2 to 5 days and no more than 11. Waves ending in 2C2 typically make up 8-15% with the same maximum of 25%. This means wave 2 could last 2 to 7 days. Cumulatively, wave 2 could last 2 to 7 days and no more than 11. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 2 tends to contribute 16-30% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 93%. This means wave 2 could gain 139.74 to 339.64 with a maximum gain of 1047.57. Waves ending in C2 typically move 18-32% of the larger wave with a maximum at 73%. This means wave 2 could gain 156 to 358.80 with a maximum of 819.96. Lastly, waves ending in 2C2 move 19-56% with a continued maximum of 73%. This means wave 2 could move 166.05 to 628.57. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 1 will likely bottom between 3968.2 – 4409.66, Intermediate wave 2 could top between 4134.25 – 4602. Stronger consideration and likelihood places the top between 4200 – 4602. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 3 typically contributes 27-43% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 66%. This means wave 3 could last 10 to 19 days and up to 30 days at the most. Waves ending in C3 typically make up 29-44% with a maximum of 59%. This means wave 3 could last 10 to 13 days and no more than 27. Waves ending in 2C3 typically make up 26-42% with a maximum of 45%. This means wave 3 could last 9 to 19 days and no more than 20 days. Cumulatively, wave 3 could last 10 to 18 days and no more than 20. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 3 tends to contribute 45-70% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 107%. This means wave 3 could drop 396.50 to 780.57 with a maximum drop of 1203.33. Waves ending in C3 typically move 60-87% of the larger wave with a maximum at 99%. This means wave 3 could drop 517.32 to 973.60 with a maximum of 1106.91. Lastly, waves ending in 2C3 move 60-82% with a maximum of 88%. This means wave 3 could drop 519.76 to 921.67. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 2 will likely top between 4200 and 4602, Intermediate wave 3 could bottom between 3278.33 – 4082.24 with stronger consideration between 3680.33-4082.24. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 4 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 4 typically contributes 5-14% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 34%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 6 days and up to 16 days at the most. Waves ending in C4 typically make up 5-16% with a maximum of 26%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 7 days and no more than 11. Waves ending in 2C4 typically make up 6-20% with the same maximum of 25%. This means wave 4 could last 2 to 9 days. Cumulatively, wave 4 could last 2 to 8 days and no more than 11. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 4 tends to contribute 19-34% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 85%. This means wave 4 could gain 164.45 to 379.14 with a maximum gain of 958.18. Waves ending in C4 typically move 22-37% of the larger wave with a maximum at 46%. This means wave 4 could gain 191.45 to 416.90 with a maximum of 512.44. Lastly, waves ending in 2C4 move 22-36% with a continued maximum of 46%. This means wave 4 could move 191.71 to 405.76. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 3 will likely bottom between 3680.33 – 4082.24, Intermediate wave 4 could top between 3872.04 – 4487.24. Stronger consideration and likelihood places the top between 3900 – 4300. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 5 LENGTH In general, Intermediate wave 5 typically contributes 12-29% of the larger wave’s length it resides in with a maximum contribution of 51%. This means wave 5 could last 4 to 13 days and up to 23 days at the most. Waves ending in C5 typically make up 10-21% with a maximum of 37%. This means wave 5 could last 4 to 9 days and no more than 17. Waves ending in 2C5 typically make up 9-21% with a continued maximum of 37%. This means wave 5 could last 3 to 10 days. Cumulatively, wave 5 could last 4 to 9 days and no more than 17. MOVEMENT Through similar considerations, wave 5 tends to contribute 33-56% of the larger wave’s overall movement with a maximum of 90%. This means wave 5 could drop 288.55 to 631.56 with a maximum drop of 1003.99. Waves ending in C5 typically move 40-47% of the larger wave with a maximum at 60%. This means wave 5 could drop 349.11 to 533.56 with a maximum of 668.66. Lastly, waves ending in 2C5 move 40-47% with a maximum of 55%. This means wave 5 could drop 351.73 to 529.15 and no more than 618.49. Using these ranges and considering Intermediate wave 4 will likely top between 3900 and 4300, Intermediate wave 5 along with Primary wave C and Cycle wave 2 could bottom between 3370.85 – 3950 with stronger consideration between 3550-3771. OVERALL PICTURE The potential tops and bottoms have been plotted on the chart above for reference. We can see these targets based on the purple boxes. I laid these independent of the movement thus far. When considered with the movement we have observed I have roughly plotted where waves 1 and 2 have now likely ended. Wave 3 may have ended today with the low, however, I dislike calling the day of analysis as an actual wave end point. If 3 did not end, we may drop within the next 2 days to a very short-term bottom. Wave 4 will not be long, but there could be very large moves as another bull trap is set. This analysis does push wave 5 a little further beyond my original May 20 starting point, but it does help narrow the final market bottom. My original target is the green box, while the wave 5 box from this analysis can be found inside of it. This pending bull trap could see the market drop 400+ points inside of less than 2 weeks. A quick drop could cue additional margin calls and be the capitulation stage of this bear market correction. Hang in there! If you have been following my analysis during this entire correction, you know the end actually is near despite the talks of long term recession. The only thing capable of giving hope and slowing inflation is if the war in Ukraine ends. My money is on something happening to Putin and Russia backing down. This immediate jubilation would provide hope that war-related supply chains for food and energy will be reversible (It won’t be quick but the market does not care). This will begin to correct some inflation which also means the Fed will not have to raise as fast or as many times as originally projected hence keeping borrowing costs lower than they would otherwise rise to by year’s end. But this is just my guess at what bottoms the market. I could be way off.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Following the S&P500 waves to the bottomThe big moves this prior week call into question where we could possibly be. Are the recession fears valid and will the market tank for the remainder of the year or is the bottom truly near? Let us study what Primary C could possibly look like. DATE TARGET Primary wave A’s length tends to contribute 30-40% of the movement of the larger Cycle wave in which it resides. Primary wave A was 35 days long. This means Cycle wave 2 could last between 87.5 and 116.6 days long. Primary wave C tends to contribute 35-40% of the length of the larger wave. If Cycle wave 2 is 87 days long, wave C would contribute 30 to 34 days of it. If Cycle wave 2 is 116 days long, wave C would contribute 40 to 46 days of it. Primary wave C began on March 29, 2022. Potential end days based on this paragraph of analysis would be: 30 days is May 11 34 days is May 17 40 days is May 25 46 days is June 3 This means the bottom should occur no later than June 3. The length of Primary wave C tends to be 107% to 171% of Primary wave A’s length. With Primary A being 35 days long, C could be 37 to 60 days long. 37 days long would be May 20. Through the incorporation of the prior paragraph, wave C could possibly end between May 20 and June 3. PRICE TARGET Primary wave A’s movement tend to contribute 40-70% of the movement of the larger Cycle wave in which it resides. Primary wave A dropped 703.97 points. This means Cycle wave 2 could drop between 1005.67 and 1759.93 points putting the bottom between 3058.69 and 3812.95. Primary wave C tends to contribute 60-68% of the movement of the larger wave. If Cycle wave 2 drops 1005.67 points, wave C would drop 603.40 to 683.85 of it. This would place the bottom between 3953.45 and 4033.90. If Cycle wave 2 drops 1759.93 points, wave C would drop 1055.96 to 1196.75 of it. This would place the bottom between 3440.55 and 3581.34. So far, our probable bottom could lie between 3440.55 and 4033.90. Primary wave C’s movement also moves 126-196% beyond that of wave A. This means wave C could drop 887.00 points from where wave A began (4818.62 was starting point) to 1379.78. This would put the bottom between 3438.84 and 3931.62. Our bottom has now narrowed to between 3440.55 and 3931.62. Another statistic is the ratio between Primary wave A’s movement and Primary C. Wave A’s movement tends to be 0.63 to 1.35 times greater than wave C. This means wave C could drop between 521.456 and 1117.41. This would place the bottom between 3519.89 and 4115.84. Our bottom has now narrowed to between 3519.89 and 3931.62. Lastly, the ratio at which Primary wave B and wave C move in relation to wave A can also be considered. This ratio is normally 0.32 to 0.50. In the current scenario, wave B moved 74.24% of wave A’s movement. This means wave C could move 148.48% to 232.00% of wave A. This is calculated in relation to the level at which wave A started (4818.62). Wave C could drop 1045.25 to 1633.21 from 4818.62. This would put the bottom between 3185.41 and 3773.37. Based on all of the analysis found here, the bottom should occur between 3519.89 and 3773.37 during a timeframe between May 20 and June 3. I will provide at least one more analysis once I determine where Intermediate wave 3 occurred. If it occurred at the point identified, then intermediate wave 5 can last no longer than 7 days because that would be the length of the wave 3 which is the shortest wave. This would put the bottom no later than May 13, which heavily contradicts this entire analysis. This contradiction does not make sense which leads me to believe we will still experience a significant market drop this coming week.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
INSG Bullish SetupThe asset has now arrived at a great load-zone. throughout its history, INSG used to gain bullish momentum from the midline of the historic blue channel. labeled as our Entry on the chart. The slowdown of the bearish momentum and the increasing volume on the load-zone is also another bullish indicator that can hint a violation of R1 is inevitable in the upcoming days. In case R1 violated with great volume this can be a great swing to the following targets. The recent recovery of NSDQ is a good indication of the low risk this setup may have. the target formation has been labeled in accordance with the past price action and profit-taking areas mostly done by retail traders. Our priority on the market in long term is bearish and profit trailing can be our second-best strategy with INSG. Cheers
NASDAQ:INSGLong
by Zivul33
2
Buckle up as SPX history's ride is not overUpon research, waves ending in C33 (our current situation) perform wave extensions greater than 150.98% for the S&P 500 index. A cluster of wave extension maneuvers occur around 200% for this same dataset. Inside of Intermediate wave 3, where we should be now, we are also inside of Minor wave 3. Minor wave 1’s name structured ends in C31. It began shortly after the open on April 21 at 4512.94. It then dropped 312.12 points and ended before noon eastern time on April 25. Mathematically speaking 312.12 x 150.98% = 471.239. We would then take this value and subtract it from the level Minor wave 1 began from to determine a possible bottom for Minor wave 3. 150.98% could place the bottom around 4041.70. However, 150% is the minimum drop according to historical study of the index. The maximum drop is 401.66% of Minor wave 1 which would bound our possible drop here to 3259.28. I think we are safe from the latter, however, the most common drop zone is between 192.65% and 202.84%. I like strong pockets of data as long as they are realistic which is the case here. This means the index is not done with quick large drops. We could get below 3911.64 while remaining above 3879.84 within days. This is a minimum drop of 263.57 more points based on today’s close (3879.84 bottom = drop of 295.37).
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
4
Restart Easter Rally For Great ReasonOne day makes a difference! I now have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave C (began March 29, 2022), Intermediate wave 2 (began April 12, 2022), and Minor wave A. The shorthand for this wave is 1532C2A which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. Minor wave 1 was 18 hourly bars long. Minor wave 3 was 17 hourly bars long. Minor wave 5 could not be longer than 17 hourly bars, and it was 17 exactly. This bottom must hold for the current wave count to be accurate. The bottom yesterday appears to have been the end of Minute wave 3 instead of the end of Minor wave 5 which still keeps us on track. My Elliott Wave indicator (created by @LazyBear) was the lowest (-57.75 on an hourly chart) as was my RSI indicator at Minute wave 3 in Minor wave 3 which confirms Minor wave 3 was marked correctly. Based on the hourly chart, I would assume Intermediate wave 2 will end right around the time the bars touch or cross above the 50 or 100 hour moving averages. It is possible these two moving averages cross each other near the reversal. Instead of this being a Bearish indicator, I think it we be the resistance level. The 15 minute chart provides a better idea of what happened today and leading up to it. Once again, Minuette wave 3 of Minute wave 3 in Minor wave 3 was the lowest low on the EW indicator. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 But if you are reading this you really care about Intermediate wave 2. My models still have the most agreement on 4 days in length. We only have 2 left this weekend so that would push the top into next week. This could be explained by high expectations based on the initial earnings reports. The inflation pressures on companies will likely look different when future earnings are determined for non-banks. The banks stand to have positive future outlooks even with higher interest rates and inflation. Larger companies will not be as fortunate. The market will likely dip after enough companies begin to account for rates and inflation impacting their bottom lines which would make sense after 2-3 days of earnings calls. This trend will likely cascade. Because we have dipped lower than I initially called, I would expect a rally of 3.40% now instead of the 2.50%. History has not changed how wave 2’s ending in 32C2 retrace their wave 1. The likely levels of 58-70% (4530.10-4562.23) for retracement of wave 1’s movement have increased. Now that movement appears to move through the weekend, 3.5% gains are much more realistic over 4 trading days. I am still looking for a conservative target at the bottom of the historical moves (4530). The models also have more precise pockets of target highs. One tight pocket is 4460-4490 (14 targets) and the other is wider at 4505-4595 (30 targets). Target tops tend to fall off after 4588, so I almost certainly would not forecast the highs above this level. The list of potential retracement levels have not changed percentage-wise from yesterday, however, the associated prices have changed slightly. These levels are now: 4474.56 which is 36.42% retracement of Intermediate Wave 1 as ended on April 11 4480.37 ----------- 38.69% 4506.20 ----------- 48.78% 4512.32 ----------- 51.17% 4530.10 ----------- 58.12% 4541.32 ----------- 62.50% 4562.23 ----------- 70.67% 4578.99 ----------- 77.22% 4597.24 ----------- 84.35% 4611.55 ----------- 89.94% INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 is where we are forecasting the most significant downward movement still. Just like the wave 3 in the wave 3 in the wave 3 above, I would expect this area to contain the most significant drop in this continued bear market. My reasoning from yesterday is restated, “This could be Russia related, but it will also occur during the bulk of earnings season. Our guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but we continue to anticipate the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer.” THE REMAINDER OF PRIMARY WAVE C Primary wave C is officially moving slower than originally forecast. This is not a problem but some adapting muse be considered. This chart has had 5 dates identified for at least a month now. These timeframes are based on how long Cycle wave 1 lasted. Cycle wave 1 ended January 4, 2022. These timelines indicate the days in length for Cycle wave 2 could last based off historical movements of similar scenarios. I was originally looking at the bottom by mid-May, but Primary wave B lasted a week longer than expected, and we are barely into Intermediate wave 2 in Primary wave C. I will leave these date lines up, but I will have a better idea of the final market bottom at the conclusion of our current Intermediate wave 2. Feel free to follow us for more historical statistics and projections!
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
3
Now its Easter Inflation Rally ModeINTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 It is likely we have ended this wave although technically the index could still go lower for one more day. This analysis is based on the assumption we have ended wave 1 on April 11 as originally forecasted. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 With wave 1 lasting only 9 days, I am expecting wave 2 to last 3-4. Most of the models agree at 4 days. Day 4 would be the Monday after Easter. My gut is leaning toward 3 days as there is a market holiday on Friday. It is most likely there will be lighter trading or jubilation at the start of earnings season that is dashed quickly (next week) by a rockier short-term inflation drag on future outlooks. Plus 3 days away from the markets can lead to longer uncertainty (Russia, Middle Eastern conflicts, oil, etc.). We do not have many price targets, but should see a decent rally for this holiday shortened week. It is likely the inflation numbers are swallowed better than expected starting tomorrow. We are looking at a 2.5% rally with potential tops above 4500. Historically wave 2’s ending in 32C2 retrace 58-70% (4522.84-4570.16) of wave 1’s movement. History says this is possible, but my more conservative target is 38-50% (4495-4522). This movement will also contain an ABC upward pattern, where wave B is downward. All price targets are: 4491.75 which is 36.42% retracement of Intermediate Wave 1 as ended on April 11 4496.95 ----------- 38.69% 4520.05 ----------- 48.78% 4525.52 ----------- 51.17% 4541.43 ----------- 58.12% 4551.46 ----------- 62.50% 4570.16 ----------- 70.67% 4585.15 ----------- 77.22% 4601.47 ----------- 84.35% 4614.27 ----------- 89.94% INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 is where we am forecasting the most significant downward movement still. This could be Russia related, but it will also occur during the bulk of earnings season. Our guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but we continue to anticipate the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer and as early as mid-May. We will have Intermediate wave 3 forecasts once we appear to finish wave 2 (with the first projections this weekend). Feel free to follow us for more historical statistics and projections!
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Will market land hard over next 2 days?INTERMEDIATE WAVE 1 We are potentially wrapping up Intermediate wave 1 and Minor wave 5 at the beginning of Primary wave C. We appear to have completed Minor wave 1 with a low by 12:30 on April 1. Minor wave 2 finished in the first hour of trading on April 5. Minor wave 3 bottom before 13:30 on April 6. Minor wave 4 may have ended today, during the final 30 minutes of the session. There is a chance Minor wave 4 ends tomorrow. This would require a new high above 4521.16. Right now, wave 4 has moved 49.59% that which Minor wave 3 moved. Although 50% is not an official Fibonacci percent, it is a historical reversal price. The biggest forecast metric for Elliott Wave Theory is the length of wave 3. In the current setup, if my wave count is accurate, has Minor wave 3 shorter than Minor wave 1. This means Minor wave 5 cannot be longer than Minor wave 3. Minor wave 3 concluded in 11 hourly trading bars. This means whenever wave 5 begins, it cannot be longer than 11 hours in length. If wave 4 has ended, 11 hours begin tomorrow. There are 7 hourly trading bars (in the 6.5 hour trading session). Minor wave 5 could end no later than 12:30 on April 11. It is also possible Minor wave 5 ends tomorrow. For this to occur, the index will most likely drop below the low (and endpoint) from Minor wave 3 which was 4450.04. At the very least, this requires a drop of 1.57%. This is certainly possible in one day, but something significant geopolitically or economically would likely have to occur. My initial targets are between 4378.34 and 4435.70, although my models have strong agreement at 4442. INTERMEDIATE WAVE 2 When Minor wave 5 ends, so does Intermediate wave 1. Intermediate wave 2 will be comprised of a three wave (ABC) which moves upward. This will most likely occur next week being a holiday shortened week. Economic calendar is light and earnings season does not kick off until the final trading day next week with the banks. This wave could last 1-2 weeks, until the full earnings picture is realized (forecast not good). INTERMEDIATE WAVE 3 Intermediate wave 3 is where I am forecasting the most significant downward movement. This could be due to Russia-Ukraine, but it will also occur during earnings season. My guess is the economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, transportation costs, along with the Fed’s pace and rate of rate increases will take center stage during earning calls. This outlook may look bleak in the near-term, but I expect the market to find its bottom before the end of the summer and as early as mid-May.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
4
SP500 either topped, will top, or flying high for yearsMy patience is being tested right now. I am running out of possible days of length and price targets. I have the market in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877), Grand SuperCycle wave 5 (began March 6, 2009), SuperCycle wave 3 (began March 23, 2020), Cycle wave 2 (began January 4, 2022), Primary wave B (began February 24, 2022), Intermediate wave C (began March 8, 2022). The shorthand for this wave is 1532BC which is based on wave letters and numbers combined. Right now, Intermediate wave C (if we are still in it, we cannot be for much longer) is: 1) 1) 15 days long 2) 2) Gain of 479.43 3) 3) 300% the length of wave A 4) 4) 172.99% the move of wave A 5) 5) Accounts for 65.22% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) length 6) 6) Makes up 91.73% of the larger wave’s (Primary B) move This also makes the stats on Primary wave B look like: 7) 7) 23 days long 8) 8) Gain of 522.65 9) 9) 65.71% retracement of Primary wave A’s length (35 bars) 10) 10) 74.24% retracement of Primary wave A’s movement (dropped 703.97 points) 1-My models only forecast 15, 17 and 27 days in length for wave C. Most of the model agreement was below 10 days. 2-The move is not necessarily a factor by itself but the additional data will use this. The price forecasts below the current high is 4633.725. The next set of price points tops below 4700 are: 4637.45, 4652.15, 4653.96, 4657.99, 4664.74, 4665.448, 4673.78, 4674.76, 4675.68, 4676.19, 4681.05, 4689.68, 4697.24. These prices begin to have more gaps than the prices below this point. There is a 4 point grouping in the 4670s. 3-Intermediate C waves rarely exceed the 300% length of wave A which is where the index is based on today’s high. Intermediate C has moved 276.92% (wave ended C2C, we are 2BC), 281.25% (2BC), 466.67% (C2C), 517.39 (54C). 4-Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median move which is 127.13% of Intermediate wave A and an average of 123.72%. Intermediate C waves ending in 2BC have a median move of 152.47% and an average of 142.60%. The maximum is 242.75% of intermediate wave A’s movement. We are above the normal in the current case. 5-In the three wave structure of Primary wave B, Intermediate C waves ending in BC have a median contribution of 31.25% for Primary wave B’s length and an average of 33.46%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median contribution of 49.45% and average of 44.22%. The highest contribution so far is 64.29% for 2BC and BC waves. 6-Likewise regarding the contribution to the overall wave, BC waves make up 68.74% as a median and 70.32% on average. There are four occasions above 90.49%. Waves ending in 2BC have a median make up of 90.49% and with a maximum at 95.12%. The current contribution is still acceptable, and quite common for 2BC waves. 7-The forecast days from my models at and above the current length are 26, 28, 32, 40, 51, 52, 59, 63, and 70 days in length. Strong agreement at 26 and 28 days. 8-The price forecasts for the end of Primary wave B have a few tight price target pockets which are: 4637.365, 4637.588, 4645.7, 4645.874, 4654.17, 4654.2, 4654.525, 4658.71, 4658.962, 4659.03, 4659.04, 4659.691, 4675.203, 4677.57, 4677.81, 4687.6, 4687.61, 4688.36, 4688.39. 9-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B match 25% to 400% the length of Primary wave A. Waves ending in 32B usually retrace around 55-70% with an outlier at 400%. We are in the smaller window now, but only for a day or two more at most. 10-Typical Primary waves ending in 2B move 41 to 88% of wave A’s movement. Waves ending in 32B move 54-77% which we are also nearing the high end of this window. To conclude, 1) the market has either topped today and we finally began Primary wave C downward with the final 15 minutes of trading today; 2) the market can rise for 2 more days at most before a reversal; or 3) We are not in Primary waves B or C and instead we ended all of the downward movement on February 24. If the latter is the case we are in the early stages of Cycle 3 which will see massive upward momentum for possibly 2-3 years. If option 1 remains valid, the chart below shows early signs of where movement will take us. Regardless of option 1 or 2, we will find a bottom and then begin Cycle 3 with the same aforementioned results. I am bullish long-term, but remain bearish in the short-term until we either break above 4818 or move below 3900.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
NFG to cool off on NATO news?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 25, 2022 with a closing price of 68.04. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 67.47 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.05% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.298% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 4.552% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 15 trading bars; half occur within 26 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 44 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:NFGShort
by StockSignaler
Will AKAM retest February lows?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 116.2. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 115.23 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.488% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.983% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.105% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 9 trading bars; half occur within 17 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 26 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:AKAMShort
by StockSignaler
2
Opendoor to test March 8 lowsBased on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 17, 2022 with a closing price of 8.27. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 8.14 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.193% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 23.192% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 24.512% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 16 trading bars; half occur within 28 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:OPENShort
by StockSignaler
2
Avis CAR heading down soon?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on March 18, 2022 with a closing price of 278.865. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 276.66 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.741% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 5.867% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 11.846% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 6 trading bars; half occur within 18 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 32 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:CARShort
by StockSignaler