GBPJPY - Long Trade - Up to ResistanceHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
I am looking to go long on GBPJPY
Although there are trade wars going on in the back ground and in turn short term sentiment is being impacted.
At the same time GBP is yo-yo-ing due to ongoing Brexit Hard or Soft short term sentimental views.
I am going long GBPJPY, however will be managing the trade closely due to this.
The website is now live - please head over for a lot of free content.
Thanks for looking at my trade idea
Duncan
Stop
The Top 3 Reasons Traders Lose and Give up1). Over-trading and Random trading. Most people and traders think in order to make money as a trader you have to be trading all the time. If you are simply watching the market, you are missing out, or not doing your job by not trading it. This leads to over trading, and trading randomly or outside of your edge. Any trades taken that are not apart of your trading plan and do not align with your clearly defined edge, should be considered random trading. This is common after losing, because the natural tendency to want to make back what you lost. This only compounds mistakes and adds to the losses, making it even harder to recover both emotionally and financially.
Being excited or eager to trade is normal, especially for beginners who are drawn to the profit potential. We are all in the market to make money, and if you are not in the market you are not making money. But more often than not, being out of the market is the right thing to do. It is often better to not make any money, than to lose it!
By understanding, developing, and only trading your edge you increase your likelihood of earning a consistent income. Remember, all edges have a failure rate between 40-60%. So it is important to not jump back into the market after losing, until the next time your edge sets up. If you do not know what your edge is, you should only trade SIM or not at all until you develop one.
2). Scalping or Not Allowing for Windfall Profits. There is an old saying on Wall Street "you cant go broke taking profits." But you absolutely can go broke by taking profits, primarily when your losses are bigger than your wins.
It has become common these days for people to advocate scalping. But they do not understand that the math is against them.
They think since the high frequency trading firms are scalping for ticks or a point, that they should too. But a retail trader cannot compete with these institutions. They have algorithms that can make 10 trades faster than you blink, pay minimal commissions, have direct access to the exchanges, hedge their trades, and often use wide stops and scale in to positions.
A beginner should never scalp, and even those with experience are better off swing trading as it offers a less stressful and less difficult way to trade profitably. When swing trading it only takes 1 out of 10 trades to offset all the losers and provide a profit. This is the complete opposite of scalping, where it takes 10 winners to offset one large loss. Or if you are using a smaller stop like twice your target (1 point target and 2 point stop), it still takes 2 trades to make up a single loss and a third to make a minuscule profit after commissions. What happens when you lose again? This cycle repeats over and over, and the trader dies slowly but surely from 100 bee stings.
3). Wrong Mentality. There are many examples of the wrong traders mentality which prevents success for so many. One of which is losing. Most traders do not like to lose, they see losing as a problem. They do not understand that losers lead to winners, and that losing is the natural cycle of trading and is imperative to a consistent return. You cant win if you dont lose!
Another example is emotions. Most traders see emotions as the enemy, that which stands between themselves and the market, and prevents them from succeeding. So they work to try and remove emotions. But this is not possible. As long as you are a human you will have emotions. You can never remove them. The key is to understand them, and use them to your advantage in the market. And when you are not in the right mental state, remove yourself from the market altogether.
A third example is fighting the market. This relates back to the first topic, over trading and random trading. Many traders do not realize the market does not always offer what they are seeking. A trading range is a good example of this. In a trading range, the market goes sideways there are many failures, and the market does not get very far. What happens to a trader who does not realize this? He continues fighting the market, looking for a large gain when the market is not offering one.
So it is important to understand your self and the market. Not just the market. You need to be able to realize when you should not be trading because your mind is not in the right state productive to trading. As well as knowing and understanding your edge, which also means the market context it works well in, and when it does not.
For more understanding on these topics and more, including how to develop an edge and how to better your traders mentality, see website below.
If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD STOP DRAWING THIS OBVIOUS EFFING WEDGE.Scroll down. Take a look at all of these "ideas."
I collected these off of the FIRST TWO PAGES of tradingview ideas for TRX.
Let me take a wild guess where your stop loss is...
Did I guess correctly?
Now let's say I want to fill a 20 million dollar bag of TRX, and I know where ALLLL of your stop losses are. What should I do?
I'd push the price down right to where your all of your stops are, scooping up all your liquidity! Well what do you know, I've filled my bag of TRX! Time to push price up again!
This is where you blame your losses on "volatility." I hope you weren't leveraged.
Why don't you try placing your buy order where you'd place your stop loss, eh?
Don't be a predictable trader.
BTCUSD - STOP DISPOSALWe see that there was a powerful movement from 3905 to 4282. During this movement, we see several accumulations with a continuation to long. The price made a false breakdown at 4215 and impulsely went down. Now I expect that the price will go to collect the stops of the longists, who traded from 3905 to 4282 and put stops under their savings!
Goals are 3631 to 3523, since there is the latest accumulation and unclosed level.
EURUSD TRENDLINE FALSE BEARISH BREAKOUT LONG false bearish breakout of the trendline is leading the price over the trendline again , anticipating the big move with a little retest of the trendline that will be followed by a strong bullish movement . let me know if you hopping on this trade , cheers!
6600 before going to hell? Bart patterns and such a manipulation is going on, we may bounce back a bit and then go straight forward to 6600. In previous analysis we did not hit the support levels which was 30% chance, but going above 6360 as i mentioned with 6400 breakout (My sl tooked) This may change a game for a short time only.. Or we may see another bart thing on the 6600 ? I could wait for a little bounce back to long 6380 level with even closer stop loss like 6365 with bigger laverage .
FIB-Extensions and why you might use them wrong!#Cypher-Pattern!Hey guys,
here is my last video about FIBONACCI and its extensions. :-)
No offens to those you use it in a wrong way -I did the same mistake!
I just wanna show you how you should do it and wanna help you to improve your trading. :-)
If you don`t really understand why, just check the first Video of my Fibinacco-series.
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? Need more education or signals? PM mw. :-)
XPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert GeneratorXPloRR S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator
Long-Term Trailing-Stop study detecting S&P500 Stock Market Crashes/Corrections and showing Volatility as warning signal for upcoming crashes
Detecting or avoiding stock market crashes seems to be the 'Holy Grail' of strategies/studies.
This study detects all major S&P500 stock market crashes and corrections since 1980 depending on the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter. The 5 crashes/corrections of 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2010 were successfully detected with the default parameters.
With the default parameters this study generates 5954% profit, with 6 closed trades, 100% profitable, while the Buy&Hold strategy only generates 2427% profit, so this strategy beats the Buy&Hold strategy by 2.45 times!
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
the green area shows a trading period (between buy and sell)
the close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is temporarily lower than the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green.
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as colored curves
the Volatility is show below in green and red. The alert threshold (red) is default set to 200 (see Volatility Warning Threshold parameter below)
Trailing Stop Smoothness value:
Adjust the Trailing Stop Smoothness parameter to hide/show smaller corrections/crashes:
96: 6 trades, 100% profit, 5954% profit, detected crashes: 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010
90: 8 trades, 100% profit, 5347% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011
74: 9 trades, 100% profit, 4964% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
41: 10 trades, 100% profit, 4886% profit, detected crashes: 1984, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015
How to use this alert generator?
Add to your alerts to get an automatic warning (via e-mail) of an upcoming stock market crash
Optimize parameters using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters
More trades don't necessarily generate more overall profit. It is important to detect only the major crashes and avoid closing trades on the smaller corrections. Bearing the smaller corrections generates a higher profit.
Watch out for the volatility alerts generated at the bottom (red). Threshold can by changed by the Volatility Warning Threshold parameter (default 2% ATR). In almost all crashes/corrections there is an alert ahead of the crash.
Although the signal doesn't predict the exact timing of the crash/correction, it is a clear warning signal that bearish times are ahead!
The current correction in march 2018 is not yet a major crash but there was already a red volatility warning alert. If the volatility alert repeats the next weeks/months, chances are higher that a bigger crash or correction is near.
As can be seen in the graphic, the deeper the crash is, the higher and wider the red volatility signal goes. So keep an eye on the red flag!
Information about the parameters: see below
If you are interested in buying this S&P500 Stock Market Crash Alert Generator, please drop me a message to receive the code (Price 99$).
EURUSD: Lower Stop On Any Shorts/Use DXY as Signal ConfirmationEURUSD Update
After rallying from the downside target off the 1.1721 line
EUR has made it to the near term upside target centred
around the 1.1821 line and been met with a barrage of
persistant selling from there over the last 6 hours creating a
series of rejection spikes above the line.
If you shorted from here again lower the stop to 1.1787.
It's been sold off in Europe all day - we need to see US follow
through to know that downside pressure is still strong from
here.
Without it there's an increasing chance that it will push higher
again from here before coming off again later - the next key
area on the upside lies at 1.1831-1.1838 - a break above here
needed to signal any further near term strength to 1.1915.
The overall picture is still bearish for EUR but with DXY
consolidating off 94 and with a little more unwinding there
still likely it means that this this whipsaw back higher for a
while yet before the downtrend resumes again