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Stophunt

EURCHF on its way to ATL1. Be aware that the SNB (Swiss National Bank) had set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 CHF per EUR for some years to keep Switzerlands economy in place, because we rely on exports. 2. This synthetically set level can be seen in the period from 2012-2013 where the price basically did nothing for weeks and was just kept alive at that rate 3. On 15.01.2015 this synthetic minimum price was abolished and the price dumped instantly to under the equilibrium, even to 0.96 EUR per CHF. Historical moment! 4. Notice the bearish retest in 2018, what a beautiful rejection there at the last support from 2015. 5. Around start of the pandemic in march 2020 we had a bullish retest of support at bullish weekly OB indicated by the "tick" in green. 6. At the moment we broke this support and I am expecting another break and retest of this 3-month support @ 1.0418. 7. Last but not least, there is a big liquidity pool resting around the sell stops at 1.0234 , above and below. Probably will act as a magnet for price action and a big stop hunt happening there. CONCLUSION: --> EUR is at the brink of doom here, holding at the last support in its entire history to the Swiss Franc. --> the narrative behind the weakness of EUR is the non-stop-printing of new money during the pandemic caused by the ECB --> add the relatively stable condition of the swiss economy regarding the rest of europe into the mix, and you have enough reasons to sell your EUR to CHF As a swiss-based trader, wanted to have a look at my personal exchange rate for buying things abroad or taking bigger investments like land and real estate in cheaper european countries. Applying some fundamental knowledge here, but mostly the chart explains itself with its price action. Hope this chart gives some clarification and insight!
Short
by coinnection
5
Understanding News ManipulationIt is crucial to understand the price action prior to a high impact news event. Analysing the range to the left beforehand can help you determine what move is likely to come next. In this example, we saw the price was driven down by the bears to stop out buyers, only to reverse immediately to the upside moments after the news had been released. By studying and acquiring knowledge like this, you can predict market moves that are likely to come with fundamentals. Find the liquidity and trade it, or be the liquidity.
Education
by AlkalineFX
10
XRPUSD - HUNT LIKE A BOSS!After the micro bullish breakout seen on XRP, we believe that the current buying exhaustion combined with lured shorting activity after the first push will cause a two-step stop hunt. This would be the best scenario to place shorts on XRP considering that its legal issues have not been resolved yet. We highly encourage you to manage your risk by scaling your entries chasing the price near our entry levels, instead of placing one order. Let me know your thoughts! Good luck!
Short
by CryptoAlkaline
2
Viewing Break of Market Structures as Broken ExpectationsBreak of expectations is a perspective from which I look at market moves a lot of the time. Broken expectations manifest in the form of broken structures. It's the same thing, but just another way of looking at such moves which makes the liquidity story a bit clearer thereby inducing more confidence in taking trades off these zones. Obvious trend continuation zones, when broken, catch many a trader offside. These make for high probability trade locations (for trades in the opposite direction).
Education
by the_MarketWhisperer
1
Understanding Equal High LiquidityThe concept around equal high liquidity comes from the understanding that stop losses hold above these points. In this example, price broke out of bullish structure and began to form bearish market conditions. This would of course attract sellers, especially at the double top point marked. The idea is simple, tackle the impulsive sellers before the trend continues. You can see that price began to lure sellers in from the double top but then came back to take them out before continuing with the true move. This type of move falls under all concepts of money distribution within liquidity and is definitely worth adding to your strategy.
Education
by AlkalineFX
USDCAD Analysis: Week 7/12/21 - 7/16/21OANDA:USDCAD This is a situation where I see a possible fake breakout. Price broke out of the long term blue trendline and is forming a head & shoulders . In my opinion the fundamental bias for this pair tilts to the downside. I think if we see price breaking back below the trendline there could be some violent moves down as possible buyer stop losses get triggered. This analysis is going against the current trend, so it's a little more dangerous. Risk management is key! News I'm watching out for. (all pairs) Comments about the timeline of interest rate hikes. Comments about quantitative easing (tapering or not). Keep an eye on the opec+ spat. Watch for tapering of production cuts. Watch for oil demand projections returning to pre-pandemic levels earlier than expected. Any news about vaccines being ineffective against new variants of the virus. News about lockdowns due to virus variants. GL Traders! "The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance." - Ed Seykota
Short
by natron
The Liquidity GrabI'm going to do my best here at explaining the basics around a liquidity grab (some times called a stop hunt), why it happens and how it works (ignore the chart I'm using, I'm not saying this is a manipulated move just showing you an example of how it works) I often refer to this in my playbook as an STL "Sweep The Legs" coupled with a picture of Johnny Lawrence from the karate kid lol First you need to understand that Big money plays a different game to retail. When you want to place a buy order at a specific price point, lets say your buying a thousands dollars worth of BTC @ $30,000, you can put an order in and boom it gets hit your filled and your ready to go to the moon. Now imagine some bigger traders who play with a lot more money than you, lets say there order is more like a billion dollars. Well in order for them to fill there position, there needs to be a large amount of selling at that level other wise they may only get a small piece filled...... theeeeeen of course the price moves away and your priced out of the market (imagine putting your $1000 order in, only getting $10 of it filled and then having the price moon....yeah it would suck) They do not want to chase candles or buy up the order book, thats just not good business, and if you have to do that in order to get your orders filled thats a good indication that there is already liquidity issues within this market and you may have a similar problem trying to cover of your position later on. So these players some times need to hunt down and find or even artificially create liquidity pools for them to take a big bite at like pigs at the trough. One of the easiest ways to do that is to look for the most obvious levels of support with in a trend of sideways channel and look at the buying thats happening on that level. If we dont get an instant recovery or bounce at that level it can normally indicate price being trapped or held down in order to encourage more retail to "buy the dip" or buy on support as these are some of the most basic tools and strategies taught to retail traders. Now one thing to remember when all of these traders/investors are in there positions from this level, there will be a large number of these traders protecting capital with stop losses, normally under the level they where buying at. This now created a liquidity pool...... You see every stop loss on a BUY order, becomes a SELL order, and with so many BUY orders created and entered at a specific level that means the stop loss orders are stacking more and more on top. Think about it like this, if we hit 30k and someone buys $1m worth, that means there is possibly a SELL order (via a stop loss) of roughly 1m under that level.... now we hit that 30k level again, and someone buys some more, maybe another $1m worth... well now there is roughly $2m worth of SELL orders in that stop loss zone. Hit that 30k super sweet safe support level 5 or 6 times and all the sudden you could have 8-10m worth of SELL orders at a single price point below support. Now if I wanted to enter this market long and I had 10m order to fill, it would make sense for me to run the price down to clip these stop losses creating a large amount of selling straight into my pig of a buy order. Once my orders filled I can stop holding the price down and let the price begin to organically rise again, this often creates fomo for all the retailers who just got knocked out of there trades from "tight stop losses" to chase the market back in only adding to the momentum and mark up of my position. The same thing can happen in vice versa when they are covering or exiting a position as well, and its often followed by a square up to reduce or remove the risk taken on to manipulate the price during there accumulation or distribution of there order, more specially into a short position as they take on more exposure to the underlying asset to manipulate the price, in a long there exposure is fiat and there isnt any need to cover. (ill explain square up in detail next time) This is often what is referred to as a liquidity grab and its how big players enter the market, they do not chuck a limit order in on Binance and hope for the best... I hope that made sense and added some value, but if you have any questions please chuck them below
Education
by DeNomics
6
I backtested FXCM's Ideas 100 TimesI backtested @FXCM 's ideas 100 times with several strategies. This research contains: (1) If it is worthy to buy cheaper than @FXCM 's signal. (2) If it is worthy to hunt @FXCM 's stop loss. (3) If @FXCM 's signals take profit too quickly. (4) If the price approaches @FXCM 's target, will it go back to buy entry? There are 5 strategies in this test case. (1) Original : follow @FXCM 's entry, stop loss and profit target. If there are 2 profit targets in an idea, I treat it as 2 trades. If there are no profit targets in an idea, I use 1:1 risk ratio. (2) cheapo_q : shift down entry, stop loss and profit target by ( entry - stop loss ) * 0.25 . (3) cheapo_h : shift down entry, stop loss and profit target by ( entry - stop loss ) * 0.5 . (4) hunter : shift down entry, stop loss and profit target by ( entry - stop loss ) . This strategy is for hunting @FXCM 's stop loss. (5) reversal : entry of reversal = @FXCM 's target , target of reversal = @FXCM 's entry. Stop loss of reversal : use 1:1 risk ratio. Quantity per trade: 50 shares for xau 100000 shares for eur,gbp,aud,nzd,usd,cad,chf result Strategy Win-Lose Profit-Loss Original 45-50 31366.57 - 19460.67 = 11905.9 cheapo_q 29-44 20080.97 - 16040.95 = 4040.02 cheapo_h 26-36 19006.84 - 12609.71 = 6397.13 hunter 16-27 8809.81 - 8759.51 = 50.3 reversal 25-20 15816.03 - 14381.96 = 1434.07 Observation * Some signals were generated when breakout, so waiting for pullback may miss some opportunities. * Advice : also consider basics and sentiments to avoid non-profitable trades. * Hunting @FXCM 's stop loss is not profitable enough. * @FXCM 's followers can consider higher profit target but need to protect difficult-to-get profit.
by clocks156t174