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This is not the bullflag that you've been looking for!!!Heya All, traders, hustler, busters, money movers, ass shakers and my FOMO crowd! We gad very interesting development taking place during the last 2 days. As it was predicted in my previous post we had nice stop hunting action taking place as well as small 200$ dump, which as predicted pulled back quite nicely and now it is giving away some of it's bullish momentum. What we see now is a formation which is resembling the bull flag, but it really is not and I don't expect it to act like one. If anything, I am still looking for a further downside move. Here are important stuff that we have to keep our eye on: 1. we have broken out from the accending price channel and it looks like the price action tries to either move to the descending channel or form completely new trajectory. (Will chart the new price channel in upcoming posts). 2. All high and low timeframe momentum oscillators are pointing to the downside, which means that we most likely will see at least another 200$ move to the downside before oscillators become bullish again. 3. Mainly, high and low timeframe volume oscillators have again crossed the zero line and are accompanied with money frow in red .... you know what that means? It means that we are going to continue stop hunt and have another sizable dump. Conclusion: - Be vewy vewy caweful with your trades - Anticipate the dump anytime within the next 8 hours - Keep your Short stoploss above 10450 and - Go long from the area bellow 10150 but make sure that you let the short move cool off before entering the long trade. Cheers, and stay safe! If you like my insightful analysis please subscribe and like this post. Archie
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by akublashvili
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURUSD 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the price went on a 90 pips price expansion. I anticipated a 65-75 pips yesterday (Read it here : ) and this was not good for me personally. Yes, I was Bearish bias for EURUSD but I would only short the pair if the price taps into the liquidity pool that I have pre-determined. Well, new day, let's move on. As I already mentioned above, yesterday the price expanded more than the 20-Day ADR projection hence I am anticipating a wee bit amount of price correction or accumulation today. What that means is, which I also hope for, price to tap into the liquidity pool that I have identified based on yesterday's price action. By the way, the price area that I marked with a yellow box, is a trading concept that I haven't introduced but I am sure every price action trader know what that is. Liquidity pool can also be identified via areas where you see a decent amount of price accumulation/small correction. The 20-day ADR for today is 60 pips. Since yesterday had a price expansion day, I would not be surprised if the daily range today is between 35-45 pips, few pips short of 20-day ADR, which means I potentially have to wait until Wednesday to get any possibility the price would tap into the liquidity pools that I have identified. If price gets into one of these pools, that is a bearish activation for me and I will wait for a bearish trigger signal to short the EURUSD. No Risk Events today for the U.S and the Euro
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the right side of the chart : EURCAD 17 Sept 2019Yesterday the daily range was 156 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 110 pips. There was a price expansion yesterday so I am anticipating either a small correction (towards the liquidity pool at the upside) or a continuation downwards but in a small range. I am bearish bias for EURCAD hence I am looking to short this pair. I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.46000-1.46300 and 1.46600-1.46800. If price enters in these zones, that is a bearish activation and I will wait for a bearish trigger to short EURCAD. If the price goes lower, without touching these zones, I will wait and see if the market gives me a fresh market structure that I could work on There are no risk events for the Euro and Canada today
Short
by sufiansaid
1
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : EURUSD 16 Sep 2019On Friday the daily range was 53 pips whilst the 20-day ADR was 57 pips. I would consider it as a hit and pretty surprising considering the range on Thursday was 159 pips but I appreciate that it probably be skewed by the fact that it was ECB Rate Decision day, hunting day for the institutional traders looking for liquidity. The 20-day average daily range (20-day ADR) for today is 57 pips. I am anticipating a 65-75 pips run between today until Tuesday's London open at 3 pm (Singapore/Malaysia time). I am looking at the liquidity pool around 1.11100 - 1.11200 prices level(equal-ish high with Friday's high and 27th and 28th August 2019's high) and a quick stop hunt at those levels which coincided with Weekly High. If price closes inside or above it, I will be looking to short EURUSD. No Risk Events Today.
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : GBPUSD 13 September 2019At the beginning of the week, price closed above previous Friday's high and that Monday high became a strong resistance level for this pair until today. I was bearish bias even until now. Why am I bearish bias even though the P1 had been activated thanks to the institutional traders failed to be very subtle with their stop hunts. I have mentioned in my other posts that they use risk events like its hunting season. Brokers widened their stops and oceans and oceans of orders from market participants (from retail to smaller fish commercials participants) Whilst it is now bullish mode from the P1 activation (price close below Tue-Wed low), my discretion would ignore this activation and will wait for a P1 activation after price close at 1.23750-1.23900 and then I will wait for the bearish trigger. I doubt it will hit the 20-week downside projection by NY close today but do take note that since Monday, this pair failed to reach it's basic 20-day average daily range. If the price keep failing to reach the minimum average daily range then it "owes" the market and indeed plenty of range needs to be paid and that usually means a very volatile pay up follows. (Please check my post regarding daily range and how it is a useful analysis :
Short
by sufiansaid
1
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : USDCHF Manipulation ZoneApabila nampak level yang terlalu jelas, maka besar kemungkinan tempat itu akan menjadi zon yang diperhatikan dan apabila zon itu menjadi tempat perhatian maka banyak "orders" akan duduk disana. When you see obvious levels, you can bet EVERYONE will see it. When everyone sees it, then there will be A LOT of interest at those zones. When there are a lot of interest, begets liquidity for the market to latch onto. Price had been trading above Monday's high and currently testing the weekly high. Another zone that big players looking at (too simplistic you might argue but think about it, retail traders and other participants look at the obvious and the ones that make sense to them. Picking a weekly high seems arbitrary I agree but it is what is. I am currently bearish bias "standby mode" at the moment but I would feel better and comfortable if the price trades higher into one of the two levels I marked on the chart. Please be wary trading this pair though as it is somewhat correlated with EURUSD and this pair (EURUSD) super duper sensitive with the major risk event tomorrow : ECB Rate Decision. Be careful out there guys.
Short
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : CHFJPY Sept 10thPrice still trading inside last week's range / Friday's range. So far, it has been an "inside day" week as the price didn't even close above Friday's high or low. I have identified several price zones that (based on my personal believe where recent turning points and/or zones that have equal highs or lows have clusters of retail orders) I believe institutional traders (banks, hedge funds, LARGE prop firms) are looking to exploit to get enough liquidity to eventually get their entire, if not some, of the positions they intended to do for the week or month. I have marked Monday's high and low to simplify my process. When/if price close above the Monday high, and preferably higher tapping in the liquidity pool above it, I will wait for a bearish trigger to get into the trade. The arrow I put int the chart is just a rough estimation where one of my several take profit levels would be. Vice versa for the bullish signal. To better understand my concept in navigating the market for intraday moves, please read the post linked below
by sufiansaid
Read the Right Side of the Chart : XAUUSD Sept 10thThis pair has certainly moved to the downside followed by the bank's price manipulation around 1555.225-1555.400 You can read the post about where the current wave originated (the setup that I missed. Yes writing this isn't easy for me : Price closed below last week's and Friday's low. Monday was pretty quiet and low volume trading day as this pair didn't reach the 20-day average daily range, which I believe it will eventually be "paid" the following days which it did during Sydney session today. Price also trading inside the liquidity pool that I have determined but there is also price zones that I have determined below it and I would love it if price reach in that zone. I would be an interested buyer at those prices, but of course, after there is a bullish trigger. Depending how volatile this pair going to be this week, if this pair goes off to the upside with momentum, price entering the liquidity pool at 1520-1535, I will be looking for a bearish signal and would seriously consider it as a continuation of the bearish wave You can read the linked posts below to understand the context of this post and also to understand my concept in navigating the market
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sufiansaid
Reading the Right Side of The Chart : Asian Session AUDNZD It's Monday, it's still in Asian Session. Just wait. I am not one to predict/choose a direction out of thin air. Having said that though, I would love it if price close above those delicious liquidity pool haven 1.0700-1.0720. If the price reaches there, I would set my intraday bias into Bearish and will short this pair once a bearish technical signal been triggered. Please read my post (linked below) about Friday/Monday relationship as a concept to navigate the market more simply and efficiently.
by sufiansaid
Reading The Right Side of The Chart : EURUSDJust imagine every turning point of a trend or a continuation of a trend, a fractal if you like, lies underneath or above it clusters of stop losses that the institutional traders look for to get liquidity. It sounds that it's evil, but whether we hate it or despise it, that is how the market works: you want to buy, you need someone willing to sell and vice versa. Putting buy stops and sell stops (in a form of stoploss or pending order) is another way of saying "I am willing to sell my position here". On Mondays, particularly before the London open, the Sydney/Asian bank traders would seek liquidity in order to get their orders filled. Since market volume generally very thin, hence stop hunting reign supreme at this time so they could get the liquidity needed to get their orders in. Actionable : Using my Friday/Monday relationship concept (I call it Phase 2, don't ask why), I would wait if the price breaks and close Friday low (the deeper the better, preferably at 1.1000 - 1.0900) and then I will look for a bullish signal. And Vice versa.
by sufiansaid
Trade the Other Side of RetailSpotting where the buy stops and sell stops (which the institutional traders would look for and eventually consume it) is not that difficult. All you need is to think "when I was a newbie trader, where would I put my stops based on xyz method" The most common stop losses that is easy to spot are ones for reversal traders (using reversal candlestick pattern such as the bearish engulfing candle for a short signal) and retracement traders (and MA crossover traders) You can refer to the chart what I am talking about. Once you determine the potential stops, then that becomes your own discovered liquidity pool. It will come very handy for your own entry points, bias setting or simply knowing which levels to avoid to put your stops. Remember, institutional traders have BIG positions to make and with big positions you need liquidity so there will be no slippage when they make their market order (i.e Bank Trader in Canada wants to buy 500 million units AUD at 0.90600 but not enough supply/sellers at that price, so to avoid being filled at much more expensive price (slippage), then he wait and/or manipulate the price where there are enough sellers for him to buy the AUD that is at a better price than 0.90600. Liquidity Pool is the area where the Bank Trader in Canada would look to buy the AUD and where that liquidity pool would be? Where there are a lot of stops. 0.89800 resides a lot of stops that would be enough for the 500 million order to be filled without slippage (This is just an oversimplification, sometimes Banks would split their orders) Using my own personal market navigational method, I draw Friday High and Low, and see where the price would close above/below. If price breaks above Friday low, I would see if it could breaks above the blue line where the bank would take out all the stops around 0.90400-0.90800 (the higher the better) there and then perhaps push the price down after that. If price breaks below Friday low, I would see if it could break the stops around 0.89800-0.89600 (the deeper the better) and then I would be looking for a bullish trigger to long AUDCAD
by sufiansaid
Navigating The Market : Monday with Tue/Wed RelationshipThis write up is an extension to this post : The concept is when the price on Tuesday or Wednesday broken and close above the Monday high, generally that potentially could be the "anchor" /high of the week hence the intraday trend of that week will rooted from this. Vice versa. Of course, this doesn't happen 100% of the time but it happens repetitively. Usually, this block (Tuesday-Wednesday) is, very often, the "final stage"/"final push" from the institutions with their price-fixing/stop hunts/liquidity hunt. It tends to extend until Thursday or Friday but generally, those block (Thursday-Friday) tend to be a profit-taking day for the banks
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by sufiansaid
1
Risk Events - U.S Jobs Numbers Happy Hours for Stop Hunters Friday was an inside day www.investopedia.com , pretty funny for most new traders who were taught that NFP day is pretty volatile and results in high range day. If there is no liquidity = price won't move. When the U.S Job numbers came out, I projected the zone of manipulation would be around 1.10500-1.10600 price zones(@itsReal307 would confirm this as I mentioned it in our whatsapp group ibb.co ) / ibb.co and claimed that the bullish move was nothing more than a stop hunt.
by sufiansaid
Risk Events - U.S and Canadian Jobs Numbers People sometimes confuse with trading the economic numbers' reactionary price action as part of "Team Fundamental Analysis" trader. I have a better word for that: Storm Catcher. I have a dear friend who trades this way, (@itsReal307 - his handle in tradingview) unlike most people I've seen, he's done it with success. I have tried it in the past, most of my big losses came from trading this way. So, that my friend of mine, I don't know how he does it, being a storm catcher (or chaser?). I, however, am a very defensive trader, risk-averse in nature, I would avoid the storm. The price action after NFP numbers, I tend to avoid and stayed on the sidelines, especially if it is against my technical bias and/or against the bias I've determined analyzing the underlying sentiment of the currencies involved (i.e I am bullish bias for USDCAD but the jobs number for the U.S is negative). I believe risk events like NFP, are a great hunting ground for the institutional to stop hunts/manipulate the price/ensuing liquidity runs, hence if you do not know what you're doing (like my friend who does), stay away from trading this at least after 30 minutes of the number's release. In this chart, showcases how my technical bias contradicts the jobs numbers. I stayed on the sideline for 30 minutes, which in this case, no bullish trigger warranted me to go Long until the following Monday. Risk Events provides liquidity but with the spreads tend to widen and slippages tend to happen, it's best that you just stay away from this risk event.
by sufiansaid