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Journal analysis: Looking at my past gamblesOnly 1 way to get anywhere... Time to look at some trades I posted, going to focus mostly on the exit. Most important part, that's when you make (or lose) money. There are a couple of ideas marked "short/long" on 3D & W charts, these are not trades I took or intended on taking, it's a general bias idea. Maybe I should not tag "long" and "short" so they are more easy to filter... 05 September: CHFJPY Original idea: Outcome: A loser, and didn't miss much. Lots of buying pressure. The reversal area was correctly identified thought. Not much to trail here... 10 September: EURJPY Original idea: Outcome: Kinda repeated what I did on CHFJPY... 12 September: Gold Original idea: Had 11 losers in a row, was aiming for 12. Get ready to get big losing streaks if you go for RR of 5, 10+. Outcome: I am keeping it in the back of my head, but I don't think there is much to learn from that specific trade. More generally there is something to learn, that when the recession is looking close, and there is an uptrend and great news catalysts, and on the weekly/monthly chart we broke out of accumulation and are going up; then buys are a good idea. 12 September: USDCHF Original idea: "Watch me end my losing spree live" Normally I won't post a trade way after I entered and it went my way, but this was ending my lose spree I wanted to... Outcome: Conclusion: Well don't try running winners in choppy markets (if you even can trade them). Nothing much else... 16 September: NatGas Original idea: Outcome: Not sure how to explain that one without swearing. I'll use a little monkey emoji instead. Need to look at Oil: Of course in this case, EMAs cannot be used to trail... It makes no sense... It did not go much higher and went way down. I can't see H4 & H1. Probably would end up a 5R to 10R. There is alot of fear and uncertainty in these events, possible price just has some wild sudden moves in 1 direction. So ye, no opportunity for a very large winner, but still a great 5R in 5 days with what I think are high odds. 18 September: USDMXN Original idea: Outcome: I got kicked out early, as price was retracing alot several times before the rising wedge broke bullish. Only got 1R out... If I waited for 3 or 4 R before trailing my stop I'd catch the move. Was hard to stay in this one I find, but maybe I should risk it, and wait for at least 3-4 R before trailing my stop. Usually I do... 18 September: Dow Jones & Dax Original idea: Uh, another winner, I did not take the shot thought. Hmmm ok great. Had a winner that would have almost entirely paid for my entire losing spree by itself (if I managed it perfectly and also went into the right indice which would not have happened). Bummer. Had alot of winners at around the same time during that period I remember, then back to lose spree ^^. ---- Checking my log I had 15 trades that were trades I lost, missed, broke even, small winners. But mostly losses ;) Going to fast forward or this post will never end. - 1 exception I want to look at thought, from this idea: Lost on GBPCHF, went the other way, then in an update Imentionned I went short GBPJPY Stopped at the top then it went my way, very much. Pretty fun. Also going to skip those recent yen pairs. USDJPY going down of course ahah. CHFJPY and EURJPY, same as on the 5 september. I shorted vertical candles. No waves, just a straight candle. And lost. Again. I want to look at a complicated BitconnectCoin trade a while ago... Shorting Bitcoin is not rewarding. Bears should be buyers too. I don't recommend shorting it honestly, expect when it breaks down vertically, very short term trades. I keep repeating this lol. For 1 year now. No one ever listens so I'll keep repeating it. It moves exponentially... So obvious. Bulls think they have discovered something... So obvious it hurts. What to learn here is (apart from that pennants work wonders), just set a buy order on a predetermined price, and it will get filled by a vertical candle... Have to short on Bitmex as a hedge or (*0) to be flat... Really sucks. Have to be around the PC. (Because bitmex is all in btc not stable currencies). OR use Kraken/etc buuut if you use leverage and your stop gets ignored, go enjoy. Great, by analysing Bitcoin, I have convinced myself once again that it sucked and I didn't like it. Not on my timeframes. 09 October: EURGBP & GBPNZD Original idea: Outcome: No central bank meeting/release all week. Is giving back 1-2 R on most winners to get 20R once in a while worth it? YES! Well has to happen at least 10% of the time... Those 20R are just insane. Arrr I feel like a pirate. Because I found a treasure. Staying in a winner, nothing feels better. You just need 1 big winner and you are so done. On higher timeframes think about the people that bought Bitcoin here and stayed in until perfect exit: Say they're a long term trader. Let's try finding something that makes some sense. Another example: Well in general I have a whole lot of small losers, really tons of those, a few small winners (they are pointless, I need to keep trying to have as little of those as possible they really are pointless), a few ~5R, and the 10-20 or even more R is super rare but the rare time it happens my account takes a huge leap. Worth giving up some on 5Rs to get these huge winners once in a while. 5Rs almost feel as "meh" "they're just small winners that cancel themselves out with the losers".
by MrRenev
Trailing Stop or Trailing Take ProfitCase scenario: Short Position based on a moving average crossing Stop Loss 0.50% Take Profit 0.50% Trailing Stop 0.41% Trailing Take Profit 0.41% Using a Trailing Take Profit of 0.41% that gets activated at the Take Profit level of 0.50% results in locking in the profit with minimal risk of closing the position too soon. A Trailing Stop used with the same 0.41% trailing distance results in a high risk of closing a potentially profitable position too soon. In this example, the position was almost closed at a loss by the 0.41% Trailing Stop . Both TS and TTP are good tools to close a position. Using a Trailing Stop with a higher trailing distance, as well as a Trailing Take Profit , should improve our odds of getting that profit.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by KryptoNight
Bitcoin Analysis on the WeeklyGood evening traders! Bitcoin is bouncing off of $7,700 support on the weekly, holding strong so far. Interestingly, starting in August, Bitcoin is following an odd green, red, red, red pattern weekly. So far, we appear to be in a green candle. Not that I can say I have firm reason to believe this will continue, but I would be skeptical of any red candle closes below $7,700. If I were in Bitcoin, my stops would be set up to protect the huge gap between $5,253.74 and $7,700. $10,148.51 is the next High Volume Node going in the opposite direction. It is noteworthy that as we zoom out on this chart, there is a more historic high volume node at the $6,400, which may provide support. These figures may seem far fetched, but we've seen some huge price moves in August and September, only time will tell if Bitcoin continues to bounce. Keep an eye out for my daily and 4h charts for some short term fun! I'll link in the comments. Disclaimer: This is NOT trading advice! These are merely my opinions that I have posted for educational reasons only. I hope you all kill it, but I am not responsible for any financial losses. Thanks for reading!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoRichCrypto
NIKE 1D BULLISH RANGE BREAKOUTRanges are repeatable trading chart pattern. Ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction. Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern. What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart). Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place. Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement. When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern. Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close. 1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line). a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size. b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+) 2 - Enter two trades. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price. *8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade *9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open. a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size. b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open. c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade. d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
NYSE:NKELong
by Tradingstrategyguides
BTC Bear break from pattern we've been watching for weeks!Same pattern we have had on the charts for weeks now. Bulls finally lost the battle and bears took price down much lower. Those using the triangle were using stops anywhere from $9400-9500 area and as of this posting, we are down under $8700 a couple hours later. RSI on 4 hour and daily is oversold so lets see if bulls try and offer a solid bounce opportunity. Keep in mind, what was once support (bottom of triangle - purple line), when it fails and breaks down often later becomes resistance. As traders, oversold bounce opportunity here or watch and see if bulls can get above bottom of triangle on any move back up. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
Risk Events - U.S Jobs Numbers Happy Hours for Stop Hunters Friday was an inside day www.investopedia.com , pretty funny for most new traders who were taught that NFP day is pretty volatile and results in high range day. If there is no liquidity = price won't move. When the U.S Job numbers came out, I projected the zone of manipulation would be around 1.10500-1.10600 price zones(@itsReal307 would confirm this as I mentioned it in our whatsapp group ibb.co ) / ibb.co and claimed that the bullish move was nothing more than a stop hunt.
by sufiansaid
Stop hunts - The retail traders worst enemy.STOP LOSING TO THE SHARKS Why do 95% of traders fail? Because you learn from the masses, then you lose with the masses. You are being fooled by the banks & institutions. The very core of technical trading revolves around support & resistance. You are taught to sell if price breaks support and buy if price breaks resistance, but you aren't taught to win - you are taught to lose. The big cats in the market want you to follow these procedures so that they can manipulate the market to their benefit. When price breaks support, all the retail traders start closing out their buys - (stop losses hit) - and entering sells to follow the 'newly formed trend.' But after a 10-50 pip drop beneath support, price sharply reverses and shifts back to the upside with strong momentum, once again wiping out retail traders - and providing market makers with the best possible prices for optimal trades. So stop trading like a retail trader, start thinking like a shark. Until then, you WILL lose.
Education
by jeafxtrading
2
GBP/AUD BUY BIAS (RETEST OF 1.81300)My BIAS for GBP/AUD in the upcoming week will be a BUY. My reasons behind this are that we had 1.A previous ascending channel which has been broken and rested with a strong Bullish Engulfing Candle following the retest. 2.We are currently travelling above a recent Supply Zone and also a strong daily resistance which we've also seen act as support at 1.81300. I will be looking to enter this trade upon a retest of our Daily Resistance with targets of 1.82500 (120 Pips) Stops will be around 1.80900 (40 PIPS)
Long
by RhysFX
I will hold my shorts until TPs/SLs hit, or confirmations..Well, there are many indicators that show that we are going to bounce.. - sma200 ema200 on 4h - fear index extreemly low - some other indicators show that we are at the lowest point such as rsi.. - also we didnt have pull back yet (to prepare for next drop if there is going to be any?) - we sliced the cloud downwards on hourly, but now need to test it out again (pull back) *** and more... but all these indicators aren't a must, especially if we are going to see long red weekly dildos, sure small consolidation/pullBack is nice to have, but dont forget that there are also a lot of indicators showing that we can continue going down.. This is why for those who shorted with me, I told to take some profits (15% at-list), and to move SLs to a profit area.. but Im not done shorting, Im still in both positions, and I still believe we are going to meet at-list 2 of my TPs: 10300, 9450, 8450- (from my perspective these are much more probable then going back to 11k+ atm.... but as I said that everything is just probabilities, we cant always catch the edges, and we cant always catch the right direction, thus all who did short so far I would recomand to keep at profit levels and hold positions until either TPs/SL hit or until we have confirmation for drastic market change, those who aren't in position should wait for a better position (I think a closing candle today or weekly should tell direction) - never rush a trade because this is how you lose money.. those who want to try to long this falling knife are welcome but dont risk too much, keep it safe trading.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Hedgehog_king
How to connect your indicator with the Trade ManagerHi everyone On Today's tutorial, I wanted to highlight how you can upgrade your own indicator to work with the Trade Manager Let's take the dummy example of the double MM cross Step 1 - Update your indicator Somewhere in the code you'll have a LONG and a SHORT condition. If not, please go back to study trading for noobs (I'm kidding !!!) So it should look to something similar macrossover = crossover(MA1, MA2) macrossunder = crossunder(MA1, MA2) What you will need to add at the very end of your script is a Signal plot that will be captured by the Trade Manager. This will give us : // Signal plot to be used as external // if crossover, sends 1, otherwise sends -1 Signal = macrossover ? 1 : macrossunder ? -1 : na plot(Signal, title="Signal") The Trade Manager engines expects to receive 1 for a bullishg signal and -1 for bearish . Step 2 - Add the Trade Manager to your chart and select the right Data Source I feel the questions coming so I prefer to anticipate :) When you add the Trade Manager to your chart, nothing will be displayed. THIS IS NORMAL because you'll have to select the Data Source to be "Signal" Remember our Signal variable from the Two MM Cross from before, now we'll capture it and.....drumb rolll...... that's from that moment that your life became even more AWESOME The Engine will capture the last signal from the MM cross or any indicator actually and will update the Stop Loss, Take Profit levels based on the parameters you set on the Trade Manager I worked the whole weekend on it because I wanted to challenge myself and give you something that I will certainly use in my own trading Please send me some feedback or questions if any Enjoy Dave
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Daveatt
19
EOS/BTC - EOS might be making an impulsive wave 1.Hi! As Bitcoin is consolidating it may be an opportunity to the alts to peform after been correcting since Bitcoin's dominance were sucking alts powers. This is a correlated idea about Bitcoin's dominance that you could check it out: Neo were one of them that been showing so much strenght. As you can see in the chart we can test the trend channel, I've bought a small position at 0.0003949, if prices stays above 0.0005000 and I don't get stopped I will make another buy on that zone until first target at 0.0006900. This is a swing trade and so you got to deal with every correction between the target, to so is really important to keep protected use stops to meansure your gains and avoid loss. STOP LOSS: 0.0003335 (-15%) (I've started small, if I loss -15% it won't be a problem at all. Never go all in) STOP GAIN: 0.0006920 (+80%) Keep it simple. **** Manage your stop according to your risk management. This is not financial advice.
Long
by LuanCeli
3
LINK/BTC - Bigger correction aheadHi! Looking broadly, more precisely on the weekly chart, we can count 5 impulse waves. Now we can correct it on ABC. If my count is correct, Link is probably moving to support at 0.00015524. There is a possibility before correcting for lower levels, we can find opportunity for a target trade at 0.00031270 (15%). This can be very risky, you might ALWAYS use stop loss. STOP: 0.0002553 Target: 0.00031270 Manage your stop according to your risk management. This is not financial advice.
Long
by LuanCeli
7