Stops
WEDGE UP OR DOWN?We've seen situations where it wedges up and it PUMPS or the classic break & retrace. I'd be more bullish on a downward wedge but, it LOOKS like we're gonna retrace a bit. Anything could happen and the market will do what it does. This is just one perspective of MANY possible outcomes. My level for entry is 6430~ but, ladder your stops and be sure to choose proper risk management. It's a rather huge wedge so if 6430 doesn't hold then, we gotta hope 6200 & 6100 hold.
Trading bull flag: where to place buy stop loss?I am observing this beautiful bull flag whole night but I would already want to go to sleep :-D So I decided I to put a buy stop loss order to automate the process. The bull flag trade is usualy traded at the breaking poit at the top of the flag (see e.g. www.youtube.com) - which would be 5719 EUR for the current candle. I wanted to place stop loss at 5730 EUR, but it still feels quite tight (see the previous candle reached over the top line @ 5725). I am kinda afraid that when i leave the trade to the automat, it won't check what I would check - it's the aggresive and fast bull run with the volume - so it might actually happen that there will be just weak move up right to the stop loss and then fall back again.
So:
1) Where to place buy stop loss in this case? I want to buy only if there is another agressive rally up, I don't want to miss it, but I also don't want to catch just a simple wave that just touches it, let me buy high and then fall back again. I also don't want to put the stop loss too high, since then it reduces profit (+ the 0.3% taker fee that I have to pay on gdax - I don't really dare to put maker stop loss order - that would probably not fill).
2) Is it somehow possible to let gdax (or binance, bittrex, ....) automatically place sell stop loss AFTER the buy stop loss is executed? That would make super sense but seems no exchange offers that (at least I don't know how to do it, except for writing your own bot :-))
How Stop Hunts workQuick thoughts on recent price action.
Shows possible thought process of whales / market makers.
So for my Stop Loss settings, I ask myself:
-Where are everybody else's stops? (too much of a target)
-If I put my stop above/below, what happens to my Risk v Reward formula?
-If I can not my stop above/below, am I just asking to LOSE that stop?
BTC targeting stops below 6000usdFor now, my idea still stands. Short term short trades are in the play. My 7100-ish short trade still ON. Targeting first 6600, then looking for 6000 and below with major momentum when the stops get triggered (red square). Liquidity gap can make the price spike very low, who knows how low. At that point, I will be a buyer with a short to medium term reversal in mind up to the long-term trend line (green square). The second part of this scenario is a bit of a long-shot but anyway.
I also have my stop in place for my short trade in case we turn around sooner than expected which is also a possibility. I suspect many people are expecting similar thing so this alone might turn around the price sooner because nobody want's to be left behind.
So...let's see what happens ;)
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Grinding Higher - But Raise Stops
Bitcoin: BTCUST
Last Update 01:20gmt/20:20est
Bitcoin is continuing to grind higher, still contrained by the
parallel above it.It's double topping in the near term - has to
find buyers enough to push above the high at 11490 on
Coinbase feed but will likely still get rejected by the parallel
above it even it can push higher now - but grinding upwards
towards 11765 completion target perhaps sometime around
14:30 est tomorrow. A small speed line is forming under the
lows of this break so far and bulls will be looking for it to hold
firm to avoid the risk of Bitcoin topping out in near term and
moving into a dull energy sapping sideways to downwards
movement due to lack of follow through come far east opening.
So It's Ok for swings to stay long for now in hope of 11765
later but consider raising stops to under the little dynamic by
50 points or so to trap in 300 plus points profit for the day
even it does wrong from here.
It's been hard work all day. It would be a shame not to let it
run, but also a shame to risk it slipping away. These choices
are ultimately down to profile, as usual. Any move and hold
above 11765 (could only be due to far East volume buying)
would be extremely bullish - but unlikely in the near term.
Nevertheless if wrong and we see it happen at any point over
the next 24 hours we follow long once more.
Second Target On Course1st target reached.
Second target set (11300) and stop adjusted (10500).
Highly tentative Fibonacci proposed.
Overnight profits taken (20% of investment) and reinvested at pull back (10700)
The 56 and 61% RSI S&Rs still not broached
Overall Profit target: ~10%
Caveat : I am not a professional trader or adviser. Do your own research before making any trade. Never trade more than you can afford to loose.
The Trend: EP7 -- Stop-Limit saves ThousandsHowdy Yall!
I know its been several days! I finally was able (with some help) to get back onto the recording video train. There for awhile The Trend was shut down because I couldn't get videos to load. Once I had shot them, clicking on the publish bar would make them disappear into the great beyond. We're over that now, and we're back to work!
Today we have to throw out some bad analysis and take a look at the new stuff, and open our minds a bit. The most important thing we cover is protecting ourselves from bad ideas! Use your stop-limits, and if you're privy to it, use stop-buy's as well!
Until Next time!
Nuke
The Trend: EP2 -- Managing OurselvesWelcome back yall!
Today on The Trend we talk about the unknown direction of BTC. It's a challenge to call a move upward, or downward with long term trends crashing one another. What usually gives it away? VOLUME . There is no volume in sight. We have to wait untill we see some volume to have conviction in the next move. Later today - or possibly tomorrow we're going to create one of the most important pivots we've had since the 15-17k retests.
These are the times we have to manage ourselves. These are the times we have to have the discipline to set stop-limit's and protect ourselves from price-action that could empty our wallets. This is not the time to get hopped up on a new indicator, and think we know whats going to happen in a market which is running so cold, for so long, with little volume. Lets take some solace in what we DO know :
There is a giant sum of money on the sideline
There is a ton of capital in Alts which left BTC earlier this month - ripe to come back
The mining difficulty has not gone down, indicating sentiment that BTC is not dying
Talk, chatter, and new analysts are picking up BTC daily! This is not a market losing favor!
Now some last minute things. Last night I had a moderator who was nice enough to point out that I don't need to create a second idea for you to "Make it mine" on my chart! Apparently that works on the video too! So if you want to steal the chart from this video and muck it up yourself, simply click the "share" button on the bottom right of the video, and choose "Make it Mine" on the window which pulls up afterwards. If you have questions, challenges, or ideas you want to show off relating to this episode of The Trend I would like to encourage you use that feature.
I appreciate everyones support, and thank you for all the kind reviews so far!
No free lunch! How BTC pushes traders out..Do you sometimes get pushed out of a profitable position? Do you see the market coming back to your breakeven stop, only to then continue going in "your" direction?
The market is doing this constantly, so be aware of this. I will show you two areas where this has happened yesterday.
Traders often do get no "free lunch", which means a riskless profit. After the trade entry, you may have a nice profit but then see prices turn against your position.
Of course you do not want a profitable position to end up in a loss, so you move your stop to breakeven at some point.
Is there a solution to this dilemma?
Yes, you can exit a good position at a reasonable target, giving up more profit potential.
Or you can leave your stop in its original place and risk taking a (small) loss, but stay in your position which can still become very profitable (again).
Yesterday there where two examples of this "breakeven stop hunting":
1. The "breakout" longs
In the chart I marked the breakout area (red box), where traders entered long, after prices went above resistance levels at 7550 to 7930. Not a bad decision, prices went up to hit the resistance at 8400, nice profit.
Traders who hoped it would go higher still, like 9000, of course stayed in position and may have moved their stops to breakeven. But now BTC turned down and made several legs back to 7550. So now the bulls all have seen their stop hit, and what happens? Right, it goes up 1000 points!
2. The "early" shorts
Aggressive short traders may have entered below the resistance at 8400 when they saw the market showing weakness there. In the blue box you can see the short entry levels between 8400 and 8100.
After seeing a little profit the market then goes up again to 8400, hitting stop loss or breakeven stops of these shorts. Now of course it goes nearly straight down where everybody thought it was going (7800-7600).
After all this there was a nice long entry:
The long entry (blue circle) also was created by a short trap below 7800, which looked like this:
People saw the short term downtrend and break below support at 7800 (former resist).
Then a pullback from 7550 to 7800. When prices turned down below 7700 again, some traders would think bearish and short ("Hey, double top and strong downmove, we are going to 6200 again.")
Now the bear trap strikes, presenting a long entry:
The market makes a second entry long (second push up from 7600).
Stops of shorts are being hit and drive prices up, not looking back to this level (7800)!
Now how could you have anticipated something like that?
Think about a possible range, because prices are moving above and the below the EMA.
Think about the breakeven stops of the longs (see above my point 1). Longs are out and so the market is "free" to go up again. Longs might have to buy in again.
Think about another leg up (second big leg) and a new high.
As you can see, Bitcoin moved up to the upper side of the range in two equal legs and also made a new high!
Feel free to post questions or PM me! Or just follow me ;)
Trading examples: Entry, Stop, Profit in strong trendsFinding entries in a strong downtrend is surely the most important skill to have, but where to place stops?
Stop placements are important, it should be hard to reach for the market, but not too far away in order to limit your risk.
Always have a predefined stop when entering a trade! In your head or better still as a live stop order.
The stops should be above the last high or resistance. But please not just a tick (5$) above, how much exactly depends on volatility and risk management.
And should you have a target or let it run with a trailing stop?
In the chart you can see I did show two trading examples wich had targets.
I am not a fan of trailing stops, but this is only a personal preference.
Surely trade management is another important topic: Do you want to move the stop to breakeven or below when you are in a profitable short position?
This is also a personal psychological question. I prefer to move a stop to breakeven, but not at a fixed amount of profit, rather based on the chart.
What is going on right now?
Bitcoin has broken the large downtrend and made two legs up, thereby establishing a steep short-term uptrend and a broader channel.
Is this a reversal?
To early to see it as a reversal, because we might see a retest of the lows, or at least a move down to 6500 inside the upwards pointing channel.
Additionally, after a strong downtrend and break of the trendline, a range is often established (next hours /days).
Feel free to ask questions, comment or PM me...
BTGUSD: raise stops here/trail under dynamicBTGUSD
After losing the dynamic support yesterday BTG fell away to
probe structure to its left and leaving pin bars of buying
intent at 240 but never quite struck the support at 235
before bouncing away again - creating a new dynamic support
line under the day's lows, like yesterday.
Still grinding higher but meeting quite heavy selling and
now pin bars of resistance from 290 . Still a good strategy
to run a trailing stop under the dynamic and maybe stick a
limit order between 294-299, looking to buy back at 282.
Litecoin: LTCUSD Raise stops nowLitecoin Update
Well the buy point on the break of the parallel was OK but the
rally has been disappointing. Pin bars scattered around 92 and
under show interest but stops below 91 will have been hit
unless you delayed for the second buy point. Very annoying.
That pin bar showing off the high today is not good. Either
raise stops to 95 or can take profits here for 5% win at 97.5.
Would be ideal if it came back to 92 again to buy once more
with stops
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update and stops for longsLatest Update 21.30 GMT
We can by on a break of the dynamic holding back price off
the highs - stop below the line...hope for a good clean break
with enough powwer to break above the highs...if you go long
just be careful at the highs....great if we see green candles
beat it there...if it stutters and halts close down for small win
and go again if and when the line is beaten
Hope you were not put off by the messing all over the line
after it was broken...look at the pin bar of desire/greed off
the line? You could SEE this was beinning to look good here
after 20 minutes of thrashing around ABOVE the line...a really
good thorough test and it survived, no problem. You KNOW
that price is irrelevant now, but it's still there in the back of
your mind making you hesitiate. Forget everything you
thought you knew about price. This is Bitcoin. It does not
apply. Everywhere else in the investment universe price
matters. Just not here. Only patterns matter here. Follow
your chart or follow your heart. You must decide.
It stays good whilst within the parallels. so stops just
under lower line rising dynamically as the parallels rise above it.
IOTA: IOTUSD Continue to Use Dynamic Stops hereIOTA Update Dynamic Stops
Another rally attempt cut in the bud. We went long here on
break above 3311. Because we're using dynamic stops under
the little trend line that supported the rally we exited the
long at 3720 for a 12% win on a bad day again. Once again the
majority of the gain was trapped in and left you free to buy
again at the original price, bang on 33117 again...lucky,
perfect you. Now sling a support line under this run and use it
as a dynamic stop for this new long. Now you're cooking.
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Approaching highs - raise stops nowBITCOIN: BTCUSD
A fantastic day for bulls of Bitcoin has seen it rally back
towards the highs. No stops we hit on longs and after
problems gettting long here on Thursday and staying with it
before stops got hit. Friday was kinder, steadier. We are
many hundreds of points to the good here and need to protect
profits now...See those 3 fantastic continuation patterns it
hammered out during yesterday? Two strikes = 'hot' . All
three times. These are the signals we need to familiarise
ourselves with for the future..if you can
spot these you have a key to the future...For day traders the
nearest support is close at hand, at 11050 - failure here will
mean a quick fall to 10970 - and should that fail it will
comeback to 10638 where it becomes a buy again.
And if Bitcoin can hold up here at first support/11050 it will
then go on to test the high at 11390 - look to close out longs
here and only re-enter long on a break of the highs by 90
points looking to buy again on successful retest with stops
below 11200.
Swing traders who got long from much lower (9400-9500) are
showing about 1600 points of profit now in 25 hours ...use
11000 as a
stop, just under and buy back at 10640 if stopped out now.
Day tarders can use the upper paraallel of the top flag on the chart ...just UNDER 11000
Litecoin LTCUSD Testing important resistance: raise stops againLitecoin/Dollar LTCUSD
Litecoin Dollar LTCUSD
Testing important resistance at the old highs and so far standing up well.
Once again it needs buyers here to push it out of the reach of bears at current levels.
Litecoin found buyers exactly where it needed them and has
since pushed 5% or so higher. The longer term chart (left)
shows price straining against the old high , but actually it's
sitting right on top of it, trying to pin it down and use it as
support. It's doing well so far but the shorter term chart
shows price getting squeezed into a narrowing funnel where a
decision has to be made quite soon now...it either pops above
the upper dynamic and makes a run for 109 - amazing, but
possible, even though it seems unlikely. The Dow and Nasdaq
have done exactly that this year already, so it can't be
dismissed as outrageous altogether.
But, on the other side of the coin, there's also a 50/50 chance
(probably 60-40%) that price will lose the support of the lower
dynamic and then fall back to 89 at least.This wave of buying
has seen 4 smaller waves running inside the funnel, each one
getting smaller in size, which is hinting at potential
exhaustion here, a natural place to encounter profit taking.
Suggest raising the stop on longs to a little under the dynamic
support if day trading, and increasing longs if the upper
resistance line can be broken through and survive any retest.
swing traders can keep their stops at 88 for now.