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Stoxx50

Old Tricks, 4th October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Wallstreet pulled out the oldest trick in the trading book to start off a new month: a fake breakout. A breakout occurs when price confidently breaks through a support or resistance level and closes beyond that level. This is what occurred on 30th Sept to set a new yearly low for the S&P500. Once the price breaks out, it tends to keep moving in that direction except when it doesn't. That's why Trading is so difficult. ➤ Luckily for me, the breakout faded and I recouped a lot of the recent losses. I took off most of my positions too. The price is back in the chop zone between supports. I don't particularly fancy choppy conditions. ➤ The Bulls will be keen to point out this price action is laying the foundation for a double-bottom formation. It's too early to tell. Certainly, there is pent up buying. This type of formation is usually symmetrical i.e. the left and the right bottoms look similar. This would mean it will need to spend some time around the support zones to build the right bottom. ➤ My current exposure is +20% in NASDAQ. I'll give it a day or so more to catch up to other indices as it lagged on this surge. I don't want to be involved holding European indices at the moment as they are trading below the resistance level. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: New month, new beginnings...it certainly is so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
S&P 500 to outperform Eurostoxx 50 as recession hits Europe?The S&P 500 index may perform noticeably better than the European stock market ( STOXX 50 ) in the event that the European Union experiences a sharp economic downturn. The S&P 500 to EURO STOXX 50 ratio, which gauges the relative strength of the US stock market in comparison to the EU stock market, has been largely flat so far in 2022. In the past, when the Euro Area economy contracted faster than that of the United States, the S&P 500 index significantly outperformed its European counterpart. The S&P 500 gained 50% more than the EURO STOXX 50 between August 2001 and December 2003, at a time when the Euro Area's GDP growth was materially lower to that of the United States. The S&P 500 outperformed the EURO STOXX 50 by 82% between May 2007 and October 2012, as the EU economy lagged far behind the US. More recently, from October 2017 to July 2020, the US stock market recorded another period of outperformance relative to the European stock market, with the S&P 500 rising 56% relative to the EURO STOXX 50 amid a global economic downturn and the pandemic outbrake. What is coming up next? The EURO STOXX 50 could enter another period of relative underperformance relative to the S&P 500 if another significant economic slowdown occurs in Europe due to the impact of the energy crisis and inflation on consumption and investments. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
SP:SPX
by Capitalcom
Breakdown, 3rd October 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I was looking for market participants to do some window dressing on Friday to make a horrible September end on a positive note. Instead, we saw window selling. Ending with an exclamation mark to show how bad the month was for long only investors. It was a bad end for myself as well. I gave back pretty much all the profits from earlier in the month. ➤ The silver lining was that the VIX hardly budged. This was enough for me to add long SPX500 and DJ30 positions. The obvious risk is increasing exposure when the SPX500 has broken the yearly low. I am keenly aware. However, a systematic trading process only works if we stick to the rules over the long-run. Making subjective decisions based on emotions will only introduce inconsistency. ➤ There are heightened levels of risk. UK pension system is in crisis due to bond yield upheaval. There is a rumour that a large financial entity is having liquidity issues. All this brings back memories of the Lehman collapse and the onset of the Global Financial Crisis. ➤ My current exposure is +100% composed of all 5 indices I trade, SPX500, DJ30, Nasdaq, STOXX50 and DAX. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: New month, new beginnings...
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
2
Trapped II 30th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ The sequels just keep coming...prices are still stuck in the narrowish support and resistance levels for the S&P500. This time ending right at the support level in contrast to the previous day. If you get the feeling some one is trying to shake you out, that's exactly what it looks like. That being said, a break to the downside would negate this theory. ➤ For the bullish case, I need to see the VIX contract and contract quickly, ideally back below 30. If it's sticky above 30 like the current state of inflation, we probably will see further downside. ➤ My current exposure is +60% composed of Nasdaq, STOXX50 and DAX. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: End of month window dressing please!
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Trapped! 29th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another hugely volatile day. Pre-market conditions were looking disastrous as US indices were south of 1% and European indices were down over 2%. A complete turnaround occurred as bond yields reversed lower. Bond yields have become unhinged and forced central banks to step in to try and control the situation. We should expect such volatility at market extremes but it doesn't make it any easier to sit through. ➤ The bounce off the support level meant prices moved up to the previous support level now acting as resistance. Price is currently trapped between these levels. This may be temporary as prices seem to want to bounce more to least close the last major price gap. ➤ I added a long NASDAQ position. It is acting stronger than most indices having not broken the yearly low. I still hold positions in DAX and EUSTX50 . My exposure is +60%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking for further bounce to relieve extreme oversold conditions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
The Last Defence III, 28th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ No prize for those of you who guessed the title of today's update. It's growing a bit tiresome. As in previous days, prices opened higher and ended lower. As suspected, with VIX moving higher, S&P500 set a new yearly low in the process but was able to close above the support level. ➤ This tiresome behaviour may bring about some Bullish respite. As prices have continually tried to break the support without any convincing level of success. ➤ Further clues for a bullish bounce comes from my long/short equity trading. I trade the components of the Dow30 (DJIA). Some of these stocks are intensely oversold and I entered a long position in one stock. ➤ I also entered small long positions in DAX and EUSTX50. My exposure is +40%. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I have dipped my toes in to test the waters. May Last Defence III reign long.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
The Last Defence II, 27th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Bulls are being tested for the second day. This time, prices were not supported at higher levels and finished the trading day near the lows. VIX leapt higher again. Things are looking pretty ominous. ➤ I don't know if it's good news or bad news but the daily trading volume is moderate. Although elevated it hasn't really spiked. A spike could signal big players absorbing the selling especially if prices didn't move much on the day. On the other hand, no spike could signal the sellers are not done selling. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I can see potential buying opportunities but I am waiting to for some sort of VIX contraction.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
The Last Defence, 26th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Crucial week ahead for the Bulls to defend the yearly lows. First defensive effort was mounted by the Bulls to finish Friday trade away from the daily low. Price gapped down below the 2nd last level of support. The close of the candle points to continued bearish behaviour in the very short-term. ➤ VIX spiked over 30 again. There is certainly panic selling. The question is if the panic is just starting or will it recede? Further panic will most certainly break the yearly lows. That may snowball. ➤ European markets like the DAX have already succumbed to new yearly lows. ➤ Since I theorised for the Bullish case in my last post, let's talk about the why there is no bottom in sight: ● Employment numbers are still relatively strong. ● Property prices are hovering at all time highs ● Lack of bankruptcies ● Strong US Dollar is creating havoc, Asian and EM currencies have collapsed below multi-decade lows. Currency intervention by Japan and Korea most recently. ● Interest rates moving upwards fast in an unconstrained manner ➤ Some of these factors are starting to jolt a panic response. Others are yet to even show their hand. There are plenty of things that haven't even broken. Somethings need to break for a true bottom to form. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Double Bottom? 23rd Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ There's very little insight I can provide with the current price action. VIX is stuck at elevated levels and not moving anywhere. Price is moving lower to the support levels. If you weren't already in a short trade, it isn't the best place to start. If you are looking to buy, prices could continue to move lower. 🤷‍♀️ Risk to reward for new trades are probably in no one's favour. ➤ So, let's instead theorise about a Bullish case at this moment in time. ● War in Ukraine is further entrenched with more troops deployed by Russia. The West will counter. ● Interest rates are going to rise further to 4% or more ● Demand destruction is everywhere. Jobs being lost, company profits falling, consumers tightening. We are looking at a hard landing. ● China is dealing with Covid lockdown fatigue and real estate woes ➤ With all these ugly headlines, S&P500 is still holding above the 17th June low. Has the market sufficiently priced in these outcomes? ➤ On the technicals: You could argue that the leg down from15th Aug is a much less aggressive move than the April down leg. It's a gentler slide in prices. VIX is reflective of this by being stuck at a comparatively lower level. ➤ Given these conditions continue to hold, price could form a classic double-bottom and a major bullish move is not far off in the distant future. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Still waiting on the sidelines. Eager to get back in the action but only the right time! 💯
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
1
It Broke Down, 22nd Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities decided break down but that's not what I'm concerned about. It's the VIX...has it literally broken down❓ 🛠 Apart from spiking to the panic level to 30 (as I define it), it did very little on a big down day. ➤ Perhaps VIX does make sense within the context of the price action. As prices have moved consistently lower, VIX has been elevating in a steady manner and just touched panic levels post FOMC announcement. If we look at the 3 big bearish candles since the 16th August peak, today's candle was the smallest. This contraction in the size of the candle is probably the only good news for the Bulls and is preventing a huge panic move (so far). ➤ We should also note that the recent price gap was essentially closed due to a price spike...I'll stop with the Gap jokes too. ➤ I stayed on the sidelines and look to do so a bit longer given VIX's unconvincing behaviour. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Price is heading toward support. Will the buyer step in?
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
3
No Persons Land, 21st Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Prices held above the immediate lows but overall still drifting lower. It is stuck in between support and resistance zones. This is fitting behaviour given the USD Fed Interest Rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. ➤ VIX is not giving much away. Still trading below the recent peak but at elevated levels. ➤ Market makers and intra-day traders must be enjoying the erratic market movements. Prices haven't really gone anywhere these couple of days but volatility is high. I'm happy to stay on the sidelines and avoid being whipsawed. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Fed decision will not only decide on the level of interest rates but also the next level prices will move: to support or resistance.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Feeling the Gap, 20th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 📉 GAPs are unfashionable and it tends to get closed. Well, that gap has almost closed and I'm not FEELING great! ➤ Big reversal in markets as equities bounced after once again gapping lower at open. Price is heading back to the support level (that should be re-labeled as resistance). ➤ I had strong convictions that the gap will be filled. Despite that, I quit my long positions at a loss. This was to protect capital as I saw the possibility of a binary outcome: either VIX would explode higher or collapse lower. I don't like binary outcomes despite being only 40% wrong most of the time! ➤ As a result, I'll be watching from the sidelines until after the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. I'll get over the loss by then. ➤ My exposure is currently 0% with no positions. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Looking forward to the next profitable trade opportunity and learning from another loss.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Mind the Gap! 17th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 📉 GAPs are unfashionable and it tends to get closed. I’m not talking about the retail clothing store. ➤ A large price gap is caused when there is a substantial difference between the closing price on the previous trading day and the opening price on the following day. This occurs in markets that don't trade around the clock like stocks. A lot of things happen in between! ➤ Let's look at $SPY, S&P500 equity index ETF (it went ex-dividend). We experienced such a big gap on Friday open. The gap is partially closed but early Monday trade has widened it again. ➤ Most gaps will get filled in time, or at least with a good attempt. There are a few gaps in recent times highlighted in yellow. The latter two not filled. With the VIX initially spiking and coming back down Friday, I suspect the gap shall be closed. We will need to see if by closing this gap prices can get back above the support level and beyond. ➤ The overall price structure is in a downtrend. Price has formed a lower high and now a lower low. I don't rely on these classical patterns for trading but many do, so it is good to keep an eye on it. ➤ I mentioned that SPY went ex-dividend on Friday. This meant people who held the ETF as at end of trading day will receive the dividend payment at a later date. This didn't help the price. Typically, the price shall drop by the amount of the dividend (all else being equal). An interesting side-note is that the 17th Jun bottom occured on the previous ex-dividend date too. I hope we get a repeat! ➤ I took profits on my European short positions. The overall exposure increased to +120%. A moderate level of conviction at a portfolio level but maximum conviction on a single index level (at 40% exposure). The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm still looking for a bounce and a closure of the gap in the short-term. A failure to get above the previous support would give Bears more ammunition.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Bounce? 16th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Price again held in the support zone with VIX also contracting from the short-term peak. I'm looking at this as a reply of mid-May. The difference is that VIX was in the panic zone back in May and the move down prior to the bounce was much longer in duration. Maybe I should call it a "mini-mid-May" - MMM. If I am correct I hope the resulting bounce is not mini-sized. ➤ Given the above view, I took profits on the remainder of my short US index positions and switched to a max. conviction long in S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ. I still hold small shorts in DAX and EUSTX50 given their different price structure. ➤ My overall exposure shifted to +100%. A moderate level of conviction at a portfolio level. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I'm looking for a bounce. Prices may hesitate prior to a bounce and may at times look like falling further. I will not hesitate to pull the pin on my position if prices do break down.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Back to Square One, 15th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Same working title as yesterday. Prices are still at square one. There was hardly any bounce but prices managed to hold support. The market is not giving much away about its next move... ➤ I have closed the long positions in DAX and EUSTX50 (STOXX50) and have reversed to a small short position (-10% exposure each). This small exposure reflects a lower conviction trade. A high conviction position is a maximum +/- 40% exposure in a single index. ➤ As mentioned previously, based on my analysis, the European & US indices are at different places in the price structure. During these phases, we may experience an inherently hedged portfolio like yesterday where overall exposure was neutral and we have opposing positions. This will resolve itself as the indices play catch up and re-sync given their high correlations. ➤ My overall exposure shifted to -60%. Low conviction at a portfolio level. I still hold shorts in S&P500 and DJIA. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I think Thursday's price action may provide a telltale sign. If price bounce or hold support again, I would be leaning towards a return to a bullish stance.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
Back to Square One, 14th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ A momentous day in markets, momentous to do downside that is. All the up momentum was snuffed out today. Prices in S&P500 have dropped back to the support level. As I previously mentioned, there were subtle hints of a drop. The big surprise is the degree of the drop we just experienced. ➤ The only good news is that prices have hit support levels. This could lead to a rebound of some kind. Also mentioned a few updates ago, this support level has never been a firm one. Prices have sliced through easily at times. IMO, this level may just hold. ➤ I reduced my short positions in SPX500 and DJIA to take some profit. I still hold DAX and EUSTX50 long positions. This meant I ended the day with my exposure at 0% (or neutral). I am hedged to a large degree. Profits or losses will stem from the degree that US markets out/under perform European markets. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Downward bias worked in my favour. Both my portfolio and equity price levels are back to square one. I'm eager to see what happens next.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Deceleration, 13th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equity markets leapt higher towards the 4200 resistance zone. The upward acceleration is decelerating as seen by the size of the candle/bars since the progression from the higher low. This is either because of less buyers or more incoming sellers. The VIX also increased by a small amount. ➤ These are subtle hints of change in behaviour that we should take note. Whether this has to do with profit taking or imminent important economic data, we will know after the fact. ➤ I added short positions in SPX500 and DJ30 whilst still holding DAX and EUSTX50 long positions. As a result, my exposure has switched to net-short of -40%. This is an overall low but conflicted conviction level. The shorts are high conviction, the longs low. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: I am hedged but with a downward bias. Hedged positions are rare. It points to different equity market structures in different regions. This normally resolves itself and re-sync overtime due to their high correlations.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mrstockyetoro
1
Higher Low? 9th Sep 2022🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ I like my lamb chops, pork chops...but I'm not so sure I liked the wild equity chop we experienced today. The volatile gyrations followed the news flow, it was some rollercoaster ride. The DAX probably best exemplified this with its manic 2% price swings. ➤ Despite all the yo-yo action, the S&P500 is holding above the support level and is looking to make a higher-low, keeping alive the uptrend from the June bottom. ➤ I continue to hold long DAX and EUSTX50 positions. My overall exposure remain at +80%. This is a moderate conviction level. The maximum exposure is +/- 200%, the level of highest conviction. ➤ Conclusion: Wild intra-day moves hasn't altered the daily picture. Still short-term bullish. As expected, equities displaying choppy behaviour.
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
1
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on EU50Trade Idea: Selling EU50 Reasoning: Head and shoulders top with a gap fill Entry Level: 3765 Take Profit Level: 3700 Stop Loss: 3785 Risk/Reward: 3.58:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:EU50Short
by Signal_Centre
Joe Gun2Head Trade - False breakout on EU50?Trade Idea: Selling EU50 Reasoning: False breakout on EU50? Bears to return ahead of ECB meeting? Entry Level: 3955 Take Profit Level: 3533 Stop Loss: 3621 Risk/Reward: 2.31:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
FOREXCOM:EU50Short
by Signal_Centre
SX5E: getting ready for a rebounceThe STOXX has arguably a complete 5 waves structure, rebounce of 200-300 points from here is likely if intraday low holds. Target >4200 Stop <3890. -- EW interpretation: Off the top of Feb, what I regarded as azure wave (iv) of one degree higher, we can observe 5 waves structure. The last wave v in purple is quite extended, but given that wave iii reached 1.236 extension of wave i, the proportion overall is justified. Note that the technicals of this v of (v) made a higher low compared to the bottom of (iii). Bigger picture (chart: ) Off the top of Nov '21 we have a clear 3 waves down structure, with orange circle c reaching 1.236 extension of circle a, nicely within the target range projected in my previous idea. Looking closer to the subwaves structure of circle c, the (iii) and (v) is also quite extended, similar to the pattern of one degree lower. The technicals here again made a higher low compared to the bottom of circle a. These actions above suggest a corrective move with a typical abc pattern is being or already completed, a 61.8% retracement of this circle abc move is a reasonable target, if not higher. For a shorter term trade, the 38.2% retracement ~4090 is a saver bet, but the R:R ratio is not that attractive to my taste. Stop can be placed under intraday low ~3890, although the ideal target range of circle c can reach as far as 1.382 extension of circle a ~3870. Be greedy when others are fearful.
TVC:SX5ELong
by EuroStockOption
SX5E: eyeing a rebounce from 3.9k, downward pressure remainsGame plan: after the STOXX 50 drops into the target box around 3.93k, try to (not aggressively) long a short term rebounce. Overview: After a strong bull run off the covid low, the SX5E struct a major top in Nov '21. Since then we are in corrective territory, which makes me default to the ABC count of Elliott Wave. Most commonly, C wave projects to the 1.0 to 1.382 extension of A wave. So if my count is correct, I'm expecting a local bottom to be struct just under 4k, from where I will try to play a short term rebounce. The red arrows at the lower left corner come from two major lows struct in Jul and Oct '21. They might also have some indicative value. As I previously, jokingly, noticed that the market seems to find a local bottom around the opening day of the Winter Olympics, Feb 4th might just be the day to watch ;) Further I'm also expecting one more leg down after the rebounce, but that will depend on where this rebounce ends. EW interpretation: The initial drop in Dec '21 can be regarded as wave circle a, while circle b ran back to almost the top again, almost 100% retracement of circle a. These are marked in yellow and their fib levels help me put the yellow target box roughly between 3.87k and 4.01k. Note that circle b itself has an outspoken 3 waves structure, marked in blue. Subwave (b) retraced to almost 100% of (a) while subwave (c) reached between 1.236 and 1.382 extension of subwave (a). Symmetry might be in play here. By my count we are currently in progress of circle c, which should have a structure with 5 subwaves, marked in azure. The sharp decline in the last few sessions fits the impulsive character of wave (iii) of c, it's usually a reliable signal that a (stage of the) correction is near completion and a reversal is due. Invalidation: If SX5E recovers the top of subwave (ii) without dropping into the target box first, my count is likely wrong and no entry will be attempted. On the other hand, if SX5E drops below the yellow bow, then I will have to reassess the entry and stop level. The ideal entry signal will be when SX5E break out of the blue box to the upside, after fallen into it. Stop can be place just under the yellow box.
TVC:SX5E
by EuroStockOption
1