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10/20 NFLX Earnings StrangleActionable strangle for NFLX earnings. A break of recent resistance or support in either direction is profitable on intrinsic value alone. Although premium is higher than ideal given upcoming earnings, there is still a good opportunity here. Will return to work and Cuties controversy lead to a substantial subscriber decrease? Or will earnings confirm the bull thesis? Additionally, will movement towards a cash flow positive business be perceived as a sustainable move, or signal the end of an era of growth and transition toward a share price more in line with a traditional business model. Let's find out.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Elmer13
USO StrangleUsing $USO options to trade a 04 Sep 30P, 31C Strangle for about 1.50 a piece. Will exit otm position as well as 25% of itm position once this wedge breaks meaningfully. I do have a bearish bias as it is a rising wedge, but this market never seizes to amaze me, so I do want to remain somewhat neutral and let the price action determine my actions. Might be looking to sell 50% of call position if we retest the upper trend line based on setup of the $DXY as well as $SPX. Let me know what you think.
TVC:USOIL
by cduxtrades
"FED-PIG" PLAY - Metal Strangle - Long Palladium, Silver HedgePalladium is one of the most interesting niche long ideas that I've been following for some time. This rare metal has appreciated 3-4x in a very short period of time. That is pretty wild, given that it is a commodity that has always existed on Earth. While there are certainly gov't related supply controls, demand is skyrocketing due to its extremely limited availability and its rare chemical properties used to manufacture vehicles in the aerospace/automobile industries. In fact, there seems to be some slight correlation between Tesla's share price and palladium's p/oz. Might just be a coincidence though. In any case, the FED is likely to drop rates in order to keep in line with their efforts to push the market higher. Any sort of dovishness will be bad for everyone, unless you are somehow still holding a short position from 3 months ago. Otherwise, I think these FED minutes will serve as another catalyst and that it actually has not been fully priced in to the equities markets. However, one way to play this is to strangle commodities to account for an ambiguous reaction to interest rate guidance. All else equal, silver is the obvious pick to short and gold, long. However, I think palladium can benefit more than gold from decreased rates because it is overlooked. Gold may have already priced the best case scenario in already, which is a fair assumption given recent institutional interest. Thus, one creative play before 2 pm is to long Palladium forward contracts for next month and buy offsetting puts on silver miner ETFs. Will be a fully fed pig by end of day, that I am sure of. TVC:PALLADIUM TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
2
Sector Rotation Strangle - Long Bio, Short Specialty RetailThis is a complex play that involves a lot of risk and the use of options on both ETFs and Stocks. Goal: Capture the apparent sector rotation activity between Biotechnology and Specialty Retail. I have been waiting quite some time for these two sectors to start playing out the way they ought to, based on earnings across the board and common sense. I see LULU's miss as the final act before the fringe players in the retail space get hammered down. I have also been waiting for biotech to turn, as it has been stagnant for quite some time. I think getting into VRTX is wise, as it is one of the top players in the space and just got a nice price upgrade. Meanwhile, while longing VRTX and XBI (bio ETF), I plan on buying a put position in URBN (worst specialty retailer) and XRT (specialty retail ETF. Again, very risky play given the current market environment, but the tape tells me this will work. Let's see. AMEX:XBI AMEX:XRT NASDAQ:VRTX NASDAQ:URBN
AMEX:XBI
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
2
001 Piggish_Play - Bearish Strangle on Urban Outfitters (URBN)NASDAQ:URBN TRADE OVERVIEW: Entry Date: Monday - Tuesday, May 25th - 27th, 2020 Ticker: {URBN} Sector: Retail - Apparel STRATEGY AND POSITION DETAILS: Strategy: Aggressive Bearish Strangle Main Position: 80 PUTS $17.50 Strike Expiration (5/29) N/A Offset Position: 10 CALLS $20.00 Strike Expiration (6/19) N/A FUNDAMENTAL REASONING: Aside from the entire sector missing street estimates by an average of triple digits (both top and bottom line), URBN is the clear choice for worst Q1 performance, missing consensus estimates by over 500%. The only award they won was providing the bleakest Q2 guidance in the sector. This company is either going bankrupt or will be struggling to survive for the next three quarters. I do not see a bullish fundamental argument. Finally, very recent analyst estimates have been slowly teasing down throughout the weekend. Once I see an actual “Sell” rating, it’s all over, in my opinion. TECHNICAL REASONING: Triple-top formed and confirmed on Friday with heavy headline resistance . Volume speaks volumes - red days simply have several times more volume than green days. The gap from 17.50 to prior peaks is simply insurmountably high, given the recent lack of fundamental confidence. To that point, I believe that the sideways trend is now long enough to align with pre-COVID highs where the 3rd Cycle Wave down can begin. Also, I believe that both URBN and the major indices are experiencing heavy buying exhaustion, which leads me to believe that a corrective week is coming. The tailwind from the broader market pullback will likely be the final push down for this stock. POSSIBLE PITFALLS: The stock is broadly oversold and tends to bounce violently at lows. Look back at the 5-year chart for evidence of the power behind these bounces. My logic is that if it does get a sustained and powerful bounce, it will continue to 20 and beyond. The call options have more time value, and thus, act as a perfect hedge in case the broader market surges over the next coming weeks. BOTTOM LINE: Polar Bear Candidate of the Year - I cannot find any reason to be bullish from a fundamental perspective. Buy short-term PUTS & offsetting calls for an aggressive strangle this week that can yield 5-6X given the clear 12 dollar target.
NASDAQ:URBNShort
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
3
Selling 160/170 Strangle VisaThere is a solid long-term support at 156 on Visa. This is buttressed by the .236 Fib retracement near 155 as well. The 155/156 area is strong support in case of a bearish move. Also, the recent up-days have had lower volume than the recent down-days, indicating stronger bearish sentiment. The stock is also trading near its ATH (all time high). Today's candlestick's upper wick penetrated the bollinger bands, indicating Visa is due for mean reversion. We are selling the July 160/170 srangle for credit and are thus slightly delta negative.
NYSE:VShort
by LaurenTrading
3