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Coffee Pullback or Opportunity?The COT report dated May 20, 2025, reveals a gradual cooling of speculative sentiment in the coffee market. Non-commercials (speculative funds and money managers), who had largely fueled the strong rally towards the 420 USX/lb highs, are now closing long positions (–2,599 contracts), though they still maintain a significantly positive net exposure (+43,300 net contracts). At the same time, commercials (industry operators such as roasters, exporters, and processors) have reduced both their long and short positions. However, the drop in short hedges (–4,103 contracts) is an important signal—it may suggest less need for downside protection at current prices, often an early sign of a potential market bottom. Total open interest has decreased by 4,406 contracts, signaling a phase of liquidation and consolidation, where traders are reducing exposure rather than initiating new positions. 📌 Fundamental conclusion: The market is undergoing a healthy reset following the Q1 2025 boom, with speculators stepping back and commercials cautiously optimistic. 📈 Seasonal Analysis Seasonal tendencies align well with the current technical outlook. May is historically a weak month, with negative average returns across most time frames (10y, 15y, 20y). However, from June—especially July onward, data shows a strong seasonal rebound, with July–August being statistically the best-performing period of the year for coffee. This is partly due to climate-related risks (Brazilian winter, frost risk) and harvest/logistics cycles in key producing regions. 📌 Seasonal conclusion: June may offer a strategic accumulation window ahead of the traditional summer coffee rally. 🧭 Technical Analysis (Daily) The KC1! daily chart clearly reflects a distribution and correction phase following the early March peak at 420 USX/lb. Price has broken below the 355–360 demand zone and is currently testing a key support area between 340 and 325, previously established as a demand base during January–February 2025. The medium-term trend remains bullish, but the market is now in a downward corrective channel, with lower highs and lower lows. The weekly RSI sits in a low-neutral range—not yet fully oversold, suggesting there may still be room for further downside, though the bulk of the correction may already be priced in. 📌 Technical conclusion: The market is undergoing a deep pullback within a broader uptrend and is approaching potential reversal zones. 🔎 Strategic Outlook The coffee market is in the midst of a cyclical and technical correction following its sharp Q1 2025 rally. The COT report reflects a rebalancing of speculative positioning, while commercials appear less aggressive on the short side. Seasonality favors a rebound starting June, and the technicals point to a potential long-entry zone around 340–325, attractive for medium-term positioning. ✅ Recommended Trading Setup Base scenario (medium-term long): Entry: Between 340 and 325 USX/lb (gradual accumulation) Stop Loss: Weekly close below 320 (bearish confirmation) Target 1: 390 (intermediate supply zone) Target 2: 410–420 (return to highs) Confluence: RSI support, COT shift, seasonal upside, technical demand zone Alternative scenario (bearish breakdown): Only if weekly closes below 320 This would open room toward 300–285 USX/lb 📌 Final Conclusion While short-term caution is warranted, current conditions offer attractive long re-entry opportunities for those who await confirmation around the 325–340 support area. The ideal setup would include: Weekly stabilization with higher lows Renewed speculative long positioning in COT Seasonal momentum kicking in from mid-June
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBP/USD Ready to Explode or Collapse? All Eyes on 1.3600British Pound (CFTC - CME) Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management. Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP. Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning. Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead. USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision. Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114). Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely. 2. Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long. Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long. Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run. 3. Historical Seasonality May shows a historically bearish tendency: 10-Year Avg: -2.22% 5-Year Avg: -1.60% 2-Year Avg: -0.65% Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals. 4. Technical Analysis Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support. A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided. The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward. Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well. Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction. 5. Market Depth There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive. This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution. Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction. 🎯 Operational Outlook Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600 Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176 Likely Scenarios: Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection. A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750. A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
Strategy Set To Drop —Selling Bitcoin?If you knew a stock was going to crash but this stock is related to Bitcoin and always moves with Bitcoin but now is about to detach, would you tell others? Bitcoin is already trading at a new All-Time High and six weeks green. Ok, let's forget about Bitcoin because this is about MicroStrategy (now Strategy). The MSTR stock is bearish now. Very bearish. The top happened in November 2024. 9-May 2025 we have a long-term lower high. Days at resistance and this lower high is confirmed. A scandal is about to be uncovered? A change of "strategy"? Hah, nice play on words. Is strategy going to have a change of strategy? This change of strategy obviously will end up screwing everybody who holds this stock? I don't know... I mean, who knows. Here is what I know. The chart signals are pointing down. Bearish confirmed so, down we go. Namaste.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by MasterAnanda
9
Why I Use Covered Calls: Monthly Income, StrategyDescription: In this video, I break down why I use covered calls as part of my long-term investing strategy—especially inside tax-advantaged accounts like Roth IRAs. Whether you're looking to generate steady monthly income, reduce downside risk, or are open to selling your stocks at a premium, covered calls can be a powerful tool. 🧠 What You'll Learn: Why covered calls are ideal for long-term holders who want extra income The basic requirements (100 shares, option approval, etc.) Why volatile stocks yield better premiums than dividend stocks My personal method: targeting 0.20 delta strike prices on a monthly timeframe Risks like being assigned and limiting your upside 💡 Key Takeaway: If you’re not using a tax-advantaged account, your capital gains are taxable—so consider strategies like this inside an IRA. 📌 Coming Soon: In a future video, I’ll dive into the Wheel Strategy and selling puts to generate income from cash reserves.
NASDAQ:IBIT
by controllinghand
ZS Zscaler Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ZS: Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZS Zscaler prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2026-1-16, for a premium of approximately $29.30. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:ZSShort
by TopgOptions
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension. The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel. 📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20 USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar. EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long. → Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet. 📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal. Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade. 🧭4. SEASONALITY Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June. ✅ TRADING OUTLOOK 📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals. 📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested. 📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence) 📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580 📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
05-25-25 Risk Containment & Trading Strategy ExamplesSkilled Traders have learned to manage risk levels using techniques that allow them to preserve capital and move their assets towards future successful traders. Some beginner traders get stuck trying to swing for the fences. In this video, I try to share a common Fibonacci price/strategy technique where traders can attempt to limit risks while learning to identify efficient successful trade triggers. Remember, taking a trade is the easy part. Protecting and growing your capital is much more difficult. Please use the techniques in this video to learn how to protect and manage your capital. Get some. Happy Memorial Day. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
10
USD/JPY Breakdown Incoming? 4 Powerful Signals Say 'Short Now'! The current landscape for USD/JPY signals a potential bearish reversal, supported by a convergence of technical, sentiment, and fundamental factors. Following a strong bullish leg from the 140 zone, price has reached the 146–147 resistance area, where it is currently being rejected. Price action has broken below the ascending channel that began in early April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum and a possible transition into a deeper corrective phase. From the COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective, the picture aligns with this bias. Non-commercials on the USD Index (DXY) are aggressively reducing exposure on both long and short sides, resulting in a net position of -615 contracts. This reflects growing uncertainty or waning confidence in dollar strength as U.S. monetary policy enters a potential pivot zone. Meanwhile, JPY futures still show a strong net long position by speculators (194,226 long vs. 21,958 short), even after a significant long liquidation of over 9,700 contracts. Commercial traders, typically positioned opposite to trend, remain heavily net short—hinting at possible strength ahead for the yen. Seasonality adds further weight: May is historically a bearish month for USD/JPY. The 5, 10, and 15-year averages all show negative returns, with a structural downside tendency, especially in the final two weeks of the month. Retail sentiment further supports this case. Data shows that 68% of retail traders are currently long USD/JPY. Interpreting this through a contrarian lens, it implies growing downside potential, as over-positioned retail traders often precede a move in the opposite direction. Lastly, technical analysis (daily timeframe) reinforces the bearish scenario. The break below the bullish channel invalidates the recent structure, and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to move down before hitting oversold levels. Immediate support zones lie between 143 and 141. A potential retest of 145.80–146.30 would offer a favorable entry for fresh shorts in line with a developing bearish swing structure. 🎯 Conclusion All elements—technical structure, COT data, seasonal weakness, and retail sentiment—are converging toward a bearish USD/JPY outlook. Institutional traders are cutting dollar longs, seasonal forces are negative, and retail positioning is overly long. With price structure now broken, the bearish bias is well supported, targeting 143 first and 141 as a deeper move, pending price action confirmation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
EURAUD Ready to Launch? Institutions Positioning for a Big Move!🔍 1. COT REPORT (Commitment of Traders) EUR: Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): +75,253 → Bullish, but slightly reduced this week (-3,587 longs, +6,814 shorts). Commercials: Heavily short (550,286 vs 423,456 longs) → Hedging against potential EUR strength. Open interest change: +8,343 contracts → Higher market participation, active environment. AUD: Net Positioning (Non-Commercial): -59,077 → Strong bearish sentiment on AUD. Commercials: Net long (121,279 vs 61,743 shorts) → Fundamental support for AUD at potential value areas. Open interest down (-2,607) → Possible position unwinding or rollover. 📊 COT Conclusion: Speculators favor EUR long / AUD short, but commercials are positioned inversely, suggesting a potential reversal point. 📈 2. SEASONALITY EUR in May: Generally negative, with average monthly performance over 10y, 15y, and 20y ranging between -0.01% and -0.02%. Only the 2y curve shows strength (≈+0.0194). AUD in May: Mixed performance: 10y and 5y negative, but 2y slightly positive (+0.0083) → sign of recent improvement. 📊 Seasonality Conclusion: Slight edge for AUD thanks to near-term seasonal resilience. 💡 3. SENTIMENT Retail traders: 84% short on EURAUD. Average short entry: 1.7002, current price ≈ 1.7491 → many are in drawdown. High short congestion above 1.74 → Potential short squeeze setup. 📊 Sentiment Conclusion: Environment favors a bullish push to trigger stops and unwind retail shorts. 🧠 4. PRICE ACTION Price reacted to a major demand zone at 1.7200–1.7350. Last two weekly candles show compression and accumulation following strong bearish momentum. Clear liquidity pocket above 1.76–1.77, targeting the 1.79–1.80 zone. RSI showing recovery from oversold conditions. 📊 Technical Conclusion: Structure suggests rebound or reversal, aligned with sentiment and positioning dynamics. 🔚 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK Primary Bias: LONG EURAUD (multi-day / swing setup) 🎯 Target: 1.7700 – 1.7920 🛡️ Stop: Below 1.7310 (weekly close under demand zone) ⚠️ Alternative (Scenario B): A clear weekly close below 1.7300 may reactivate the bearish trend toward 1.7200.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
EUR/USD is Loading a Breakout?!EUR/USD has posted an interesting bullish reaction following a controlled descent within a descending channel. After a brief break below a long-term ascending trendline, price established support within a clear demand zone between 1.1130 and 1.1170, closing the daily candle back above the key area. This structure suggests a possible phase of accumulation, especially given the presence of a strong lower wick and the defense of the highlighted yellow zone. Still, the pair remains within the descending channel, and the squeeze between the trendline and resistance at 1.1280 could become a decision zone. A daily close above 1.1280 would support bullish continuation and open the way to 1.1450. 🧠 Institutional Positioning (COT): Large speculators continue to favor the long side on the euro, with a noticeable increase in net long exposure. This confirms the accumulation narrative visible on the chart. Meanwhile, the USD shows a consistent decline in bullish positioning, adding weight to the case for a softer dollar — supportive of a potential EUR breakout. 📊 Retail Sentiment: Retail traders are slightly skewed to the short side (52% short), which is not extreme but does act as a contrarian input favoring bullish continuation — especially if the price breaks above dynamic resistance. 📅 Seasonality (May): Historically, May tends to be a weak-to-neutral month for EUR/USD over the 10–20Y horizon. However, recent years (last 2Y) show a bullish deviation from that trend, supporting the idea that any dips could offer opportunity rather than signal trend reversals. 🧭 Summary 📈 Directional Bias: Moderately Bullish ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.1130 🎯 Target Levels: • Key Resistance: 1.1280 • Extension Zone: 1.1450 🧠 Key Takeaway: EUR/USD is showing early signs of bullish reversal within a still-constrained technical structure. Demand rejection, institutional long bias, and retail short pressure all align for a potential continuation higher. However, a confirmed breakout above 1.1280 is crucial to validate the scenario.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
BTC 4H Chart Analysis - Bitcoin is currently moving within a range, and two potential demand zones are highlighted on the chart with green boxes. There's a possibility that BTC may pull back into one of these zones to collect buy-side liquidity before continuing higher. These areas can be considered for long setups on the 15-minute timeframe — but only with a valid entry trigger. --- 📌 Key Levels 🟢 Supports: - 100,000 – 100,500 - 97,400 – 98,700 - 95,900 🔴 Resistances: - 104,800 – 105,200 - 105,900
by ProfitaminFX
What Happens If I Am Late? (Trading Strategy For Beginners)It can happen that for whatever reason you couldn't buy when the market was trading at bottom prices. What then? Am I too late? It is unwise to buy at any random price and even less with 10X cross leverage. I've seen people doing just that and buying at the top of the range. While it is never too late in relation to the overall market cycle, it can be late for a certain pair. The time to buy is near support. If bottom prices are not possible, the best option is to wait. Say you miss Bitcoin at $78,800 and prices start to advance. When prices are moving up at $84,000 and rising you can just wait. But if prices peak at $88,000 and then retrace to $84,000, consolidate as a higher low this becomes a second entry. The same when Bitcoin retraced from $95,000 and moved to the $91,000 - $93,000 range. This range becomes a second entry. Rather than rushing and buying when prices trade, say at $106,000, at the top of the move, we wait for a retrace. If this isn't possible we simply look for another pair. It is never too late because it depends on what strategy we are using, our Cryptocurrency Trading Plan, and trading style. If you are doing leverage it will depend on the chart setup and the amount of leverage you are using. If you are doing spot, it depends on your goals more than anything because buying can be done at any given time based on the long-term. It is unwise to rush into Ethereum at $2,500 because you missed $1,600. And you say, "I didn't have any money and I didn't want to miss out." With 10X? What if you lose everything on a flash crash, are you missing out now? The thing is, that all the pairs are the same when it comes to profits potential. We are looking for a win. So if a pair has a low probability of producing a successful trade, it is no good regardless of the name. Patience is key. You can use the comments section to ask questions. It is not about "breaking the trading rules," it is about your money. Have you considered what would happen if the market flash crashes just to liquidate you and those in a similar position to yours and then moves up? You didn't want to miss out, but this not missing out can result in a major loss. It is better to plan and take action based on a strategy rather than rushing, the market is not going away. Opportunities are endless, and every single day I will be sharing new charts. Some pairs are trading near support and at bottom prices, those are always the best because of the lower risk. Low risk vs a high potential for reward. Plan ahead. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by MasterAnanda
6
EUR/AUD: Rebound or Continuation of the Drop?EUR/AUD is in a critical situation after a strong bearish trend that pushed the price into a key support area. Analyzing the daily chart, we can observe that the price is testing a strong demand zone, highlighted in blue, from which a potential rebound towards the upper supply zone (in red) could emerge. The retail sentiment confirms strong short pressure, with 82% of traders positioned on the downside. This excess pessimism suggests, from a contrarian perspective, a possible rebound. Additionally, the oscillator indicates an oversold condition, reinforcing the hypothesis of a correction. From an institutional point of view, the COT data shows a slight reduction in long positions for both EUR and AUD, but with one detail: speculators remain predominantly long on EUR and short on AUD. Meanwhile, hedgers continue to protect themselves against a possible decline in the euro, demonstrating caution. In terms of seasonality, May has historically been a weak month for both currencies, but in the last two years, EUR has shown a slight recovery, while AUD has demonstrated signs of stability. Trading Strategy: Monitor the reaction to the support zone carefully. A bullish signal in this area could pave the way for a rebound towards the upper resistance. However, a bearish breakout would confirm the ongoing downward trend.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
[𝟬𝟱/𝟭𝟮] 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸🔍 IF/THEN QUICK GAMMA PLAYBOOK IF > 5825 THEN path to 5900 → stall/profit-taking likely IF > 5900 THEN path to first 5950, then 6000 → gamma squeeze extension zone IF < 5825 THEN path to 5700 → test of transition zone support Chop Zone: — re-entry = short-term balance/testing zone IF < 5700 THEN path to 5500 → gamma flush / dealer unwind risk 🧭 𝗘𝗫𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗭𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗣/b] ✅ Gamma Flip Level 5700 → This is the confirmed Gamma Flip level = High Volatility Zone = HVL. We are comfortably above it, confirming positive gamma environment. 🧱 Major Call Walls / Resistance to upside from here 5900 → Significant call resistance zone (highlighted across GEX, profile, and /matrix command). 5825–5900 = Current rally zone → expected stall at 5900 (Profit-taking zone)5950 → Next mid-large positive gamma wall to the upside, mid-station between mounts. Dealers short gamma, adding fuel to breakout.6000 → Positive Gamma squeeze continuation target. Gamma squeeze intensifies → likely extends to 6000.🟦 Transition / Chop Zone 5700–5825 → Previous chop range. Retrace could test this before renewed upside.Currently outside and breaking up from this zone, indicating trend initiation. Balance zone from prior structure. Expect fade setups if price dips back in. Needs catalyst or strong sell flow to re-enter meaningfully. 🛡️ Major Put Supports to the downside 5700 → = HVL, also aligned with pTrans and Put support.Dealer unwind risk, downside opens.5500 → Key level if the 5700 zone fails — “total denial zone” of current FOMO. ----------------------------- This week’s SPX setup remains decisively bullish from a gamma perspective. The GEX profile shows strong positive gamma, with institutional and dealer hedging flows firmly positioned to support continued upside—especially into Friday’s OPEX. The environment is ideal for a controlled melt-up: volatility is softening, implied volatility is trending lower, and there’s no sign of panic in the options market. Put pricing skew is also declining, which suggests reduced fear and a shift toward more aggressive call buying—another sign of bullish sentiment. Dealer positioning implies that any upward momentum is likely to be chased and hedged into, reinforcing the trend. However, traders should stay alert: if SPX slips back below 5825, we may see a pause or retracement back into the 5700–5825 transition zone. Only a decisive break below 5700 would flip the gamma regime back to negative and open the door to real downside volatility.
SPREADEX:SPX
by TanukiTrade
1
EUR/USD Breakdown in May: Seasonality + Smart MoneyEUR/USD Weekly Outlook – May 15, 2025 EUR/USD is showing clear signs of weakness after a sharp rejection from the key supply zone between 1.1450 and 1.1600. Last week’s candle closed decisively below the 1.1250–1.1300 structure, confirming the failure to sustain bullish momentum. The RSI has also dropped below the 40 level, signaling strong downside pressure. From an institutional positioning standpoint, non-commercial traders are rebalancing: both longs and shorts on the euro have decreased, while spread positions have increased—suggesting hesitation and a lack of clear conviction. On the other hand, commercials remain heavily long on the euro, but this appears to be more of a hedging move than a directional bias. The US dollar is regaining strength, with new long positions added by speculative traders, aligning with the recent EUR/USD decline. Retail sentiment shows that a majority of traders are short, but not in extreme proportions. There’s a heavy cluster of long orders between 1.1100 and 1.1050, likely serving as liquidity targets for further downside movement. From a seasonal perspective, May is historically bearish for EUR/USD. All major seasonal timeframes (5y, 10y, 15y, 20y) point to consistent average negative performance in this month. The current 2025 trend aligns perfectly with this historical pattern, providing a statistical tailwind to the bearish thesis. Macro-wise, today’s key US data releases—PPI and Retail Sales—could significantly impact the USD. A positive surprise would further strengthen the dollar, adding downward pressure on the pair. Market attention is also focused on Fed Chair Powell's speech later today, which could add fuel to the current move. Conclusion: The macro, technical, sentiment, and seasonal frameworks all converge on a bearish continuation for EUR/USD. A weekly close below 1.1175 would confirm the downside extension, targeting the 1.0850–1.0700 demand zone. A break above 1.1330 would temporarily invalidate the bearish setup.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
GBP/USD Bulls Are Back? Institutions Are Loading Up1. Price Action & Zone Mapping GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3300 after a strong bullish reaction near the demand zone between 1.3040 and 1.3150 — an area that has already rejected price twice in recent months. While the market structure still shows lower highs, the weekly candlestick formation signals a clear loss of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 1.3500–1.3600 zone remains the key supply area to break for a structural reversal to be confirmed. 2. COT Report – Institutional Positioning (as of May 6, 2025) Non-Commercials (speculators) added +3,320 long positions and reduced -1,956 shorts, bringing the net long to +7,683 contracts — a strong bullish signal. Commercials remain net short, but not with increasing aggression. 👉 The net positioning supports continued bullish bias, aligned with the recent technical rebound. 3. USD Index – Opposite Positioning Non-Commercials increased both longs and shorts slightly on the US Dollar Index, but net positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt. This suggests a phase of indecision or mild retracement in the dollar, which indirectly supports GBP/USD upside. 4. GBP/USD Seasonality – Historical Behavior in May According to MarketBulls data, May tends to be neutral-to-weak for the pair: 15-year avg: +0.0023 5-year avg: -0.016 2-year avg: +0.0069 Overall, this supports a ranging or corrective phase — not a high-conviction trending month. A breakout may need more confirmation. 5. Retail Sentiment Currently, 60% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2959, while only 40% are long from 1.3337. 👉 This imbalance favors a contrarian bullish narrative, especially if the market decides to run stops below 1.3300. ✅ Operational Outlook GBP/USD is showing bullish consolidation signs, backed by: Increasing institutional long interest Contrarian retail sentiment (potential fuel for rallies) Solid demand near 1.3040–1.3150 However, neutral seasonality and lack of structural breakout advise caution. A pullback towards 1.3200–1.3150 might come before any further upside move toward 1.3500. 🔍 Preferred Play: Wait for a retest of 1.3150 with price action confirmation before entering long. A strong breakout above 1.3350 would be early confirmation of renewed bullish pressure.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
How to use Dynamic Market Structure to track market moves🔍 Idea Overview This chart demonstrates the effectiveness of the Dynamic Market Structure Indicator in live conditions, capturing key Break of Structure (BoS) and Change of Character (ChoCH) points. Each zone dynamically adapts based on price behavior and helps identify crucial turning points. 📌 Highlights from the Chart • ✅ Early BoS detection led to accurate identification of the bullish breakout before the major rally starting May 7. • ✅ Multiple successful ChoCH zones indicated potential reversal areas and pause zones during sideways consolidation. • ✅ The green (BoS) and red (ChoCH) horizontal zones aligned perfectly with price reaction levels, acting as reliable support/resistance. • ✅ During the pullback post-high, the indicator caught clear bearish ChoCH before price dropped nearly $2,000, showing high responsiveness. 📊 Summary of Performance • Rally captured from ~95,000 to ~104,000 with early BoS signals. • Sideways zones around 103,000–104,000 marked with structural shifts that predicted stalling. • Post-drop behavior accurately highlighted re-test of ChoCH zones before reversal attempts. ⚙️ Indicator Logic (Brief) • BoS (Green): Confirms trend continuation when structure breaks in the direction of the trend. • ChoCH (Red): Signals a potential trend reversal with key level break. No repainting. Zones are locked once confirmed. In volatile markets like BTC, accurate detection of structural shifts can define risk and opportunity. This indicator consistently tracked evolving zones and highlighted major inflection points — without lag or overfitting.
by TradeTechanalysis
MSTR (Strategy) coming up to $395, the smaller resistance levelNASDAQ:MSTR has rebounded from the bottom fairly fast compared to other stocks and indexes. It's even performed better than Bitcoin itself. However it should be hitting heavy resistance now near 395-400 and above is only heavier resistance. It's time for a pullback and a breather for MSTR. Target is the Point of Control near $350, before going higher. However we could turn bullish again before reaching $350 I personally know someone who played with fire by buying MSTR options calls while it was dropping before, meaning he was trying to catch a falling knife and got burnt finally. He lost nearly $500,000 because of it. So I don't mess with options personally, however I will margin trade with stocks and trade futures, forex and leverage trade cryptocurrencies.
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by SakisBack
1