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85% of Traders Are Wrong on GBPCAD - I'm Going Short!📊 COT Analysis GBP: Non-Commercials remain net long with 106,282 longs vs 63,425 shorts. However, long positions are decreasing (-4,794) while shorts are slightly increasing (+3,983), suggesting profit-taking or a potential shift in sentiment. Commercials are strongly net short (35,707 longs vs 87,770 shorts), with a significant reduction in both longs (-24,958) and shorts (-33,457) — a clear reduction in overall exposure. → Non-Commercial positioning is still bullish, but momentum is fading. CAD: Non-Commercials remain heavily net short (28,154 longs vs 94,487 shorts), but notable changes are taking place: sharp increase in longs (+8,503) and a significant cut in shorts (-18,307), pointing to a possible reversal in sentiment. Commercials are net long with a rise in both longs (+1,834) and shorts (+31,186), indicating potential hedging as expectations shift. → CAD strength is emerging in the COT data, supporting a potential bearish move on GBPCAD. 📈 Seasonality – June/July GBP tends to perform poorly in June across all historical averages (-0.004 / -0.006). July shows slight positivity but is statistically insignificant. CAD has a mildly negative June, but July is historically its strongest month (+0.006 / +0.007 on 20Y and 15Y averages). → Seasonal bias favors CAD strength in the June–July transition. 🧠 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are 85% long on GBPCAD, a strong contrarian signal. → Such imbalance increases the odds of a correction or reversal to the downside. → Confirms short bias. 📉 Price Action & RSI Price surged into strong resistance at 1.8779 (triple top area). Current daily rejection + RSI in overbought territory suggest a potential swing high forming. Natural downside target: 1.8400–1.8450 (prior structure and base of the move). → Ideal short setup from resistance with confirmation via bearish price action.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
AUDCHF at Make-or-Break Zone: Smart Money Reversal or Breakdown?1. Price Action Price is currently trading within a descending channel, with 0.5244 hovering near a key demand zone (0.5150–0.5200), where a first bullish reaction has already occurred. The structure suggests a potential fake breakdown, with room for a rebound toward static resistances at 0.5330, and possibly 0.5450. RSI is rising from oversold, showing signs of a potential bullish divergence. 📌 Technical bias: Waiting for confirmation of a reversal at key support. Upside targets: 0.5330 > 0.5450. Ideal stop-loss below 0.5160. 2. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 0.5551, now facing a 300+ pip drawdown. This increases short-term contrarian bearish pressure, but also signals liquidity above the highs, which could be targeted before a true bullish reversal. 3. Commitment of Traders (as of June 17, 2025) AUD – Bearish Massive drop in both commercial longs (-60k) and shorts (-60k) suggests broad disengagement. Non-commercials remain net short (-69k), with overall open interest declining. CHF – Neutral to Bullish CHF also sees declines in positioning, but commercial traders remain firmly net long (+51.7k). Non-commercials are net short (-25.5k). 📌 COT Conclusion: AUD remains structurally weaker than CHF, but both currencies are showing signs of positioning uncertainty. This compression phase may precede a technical rebound on AUDCHF. 4. Seasonality AUD June historically shows modest strength on 10Y and 5Y averages. However, 2Y data points to weakness → any rally may be short-lived or fragile. CHF CHF tends to be strong in June, especially on 20Y and 10Y views. Yet, short-term (2Y) data shows end-of-month weakness, suggesting possible profit-taking ahead. ✅ Operational Outlook Short-term bias: Long AUDCHF (corrective rebound) Medium/long-term bias: Bearish (still in a downtrend)
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
Sharing the advanced Bollinger Bands strategyHere are the Bollinger Band trading tips: * 📌 If you break above the upper band and then drop back down through it, confirm a short signal! 📌 If you drop below the lower band and then move back up through it, confirm a long signal! 📌 If you continue to drop below the middle band, add to your short position; if you break above the middle band, add to your long position! Pretty straightforward, right? This means you won’t be waiting for the middle band to signal before acting; you’ll be ahead of the game, capturing market turning points！ Let’s break it down with some examples: 1. When Bitcoin breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, it looks strong, but quickly drops back below: ➡️ That’s a “bull trap”—time to go short! 2. If Bitcoin crashes below the lower band and then pops back up: ➡️ Bears are running out of steam—time to go long and grab that rebound! 3. If the price keeps moving above the middle band: ➡️ Add to your long or short positions to ride the trend without being greedy or hesitant. Why is this method powerful? It combines “edge recognition + trend confirmation” for double protection: 1. Edge Recognition—spot the turning point and act early. 2. Trend Confirmation—wait for the middle band breakout and then confidently add positions! You won’t be reacting after the fact; you’ll be ahead of the curve, increasing your positions in the trend’s middle and locking in profits at the end. This is the rhythm of professional traders and the core logic of systematic profits! Who is this method for? - You want precise entry and exit points. - You’re tired of “chasing highs and cutting losses.” - You want a clear, executable trading system. - You want to go from “I see the chart but don’t act” to “I see the signal and take action.” Follow for more. Make sure to like this if you found it useful.
Education
by SolanaMemeCoins
MKC McCormick & Company Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MKC McCormick & Company prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2026-1-16, for a premium of approximately $1.40. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:MKCLong
by TopgOptions
Retail is 86% Long on GBPCHF… But Smart Money Is Setting a Trap📊 1. RETAIL SENTIMENT Long Positions: 86% – Average Entry: 1.1196 Short Positions: 14% – Average Entry: 1.0999 Current Price: 1.1010 Analysis: Retail positioning is heavily skewed towards longs, with the average long entry significantly above the current market price. This creates vulnerability to downside pressure through stop-loss hunting or a bearish squeeze. Such extreme retail bias often acts as a contrarian signal: smart money may continue pushing the price lower to flush out retail traders before any meaningful reversal occurs. 🧾 2. COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS – COT REPORT (June 10, 2025) 🔹 British Pound (GBP) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Net Long increasing by +7.4K → now at +51.6K Commercials (Hedgers): Net Short decreasing by -13.9K → now at -60.5K Total Open Interest: Decreased by -19K Interpretation: Speculators are maintaining strong long exposure on GBP, while commercials are covering some shorts—potentially signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum. However, the drop in overall open interest suggests possible consolidation or short-term uncertainty. 🔹 Swiss Franc (CHF) Non-Commercials: Net Shorts reduced by -2.7K Commercials: Net Longs increased by +2.5K Total Open Interest: Increased by +5.6K Interpretation: The CHF is gaining strength. Commercial participants are increasing their long exposure while speculators reduce their shorts—this positive divergence supports a bullish outlook on CHF, especially against retail-heavy long pairs like GBP. 📈 3. CHF SEASONALITY – JUNE Average CHF Performance in June: 20-Year Avg: +0.0099 15-Year Avg: +0.0138 10-Year Avg: +0.0099 5-Year Avg: +0.0039 Analysis: Historically, June is a seasonally strong month for the Swiss Franc. This seasonal bias aligns with current macro conditions, reinforcing the bullish case for CHF. 📊 4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Daily Chart) Pattern: Descending channel with a recent false breakdown and re-entry Key Support Zone: 1.0980–1.1000 → tested and defended with a bullish wick Target Resistance: 1.1170–1.1200 → prior retail cluster, supply zone, and average long entry Scenario: A confirmed breakout of the channel could trigger a short squeeze toward 1.1170–1.1200 📌 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK The current GBP/CHF setup is technically and sentimentally delicate. The price sits on a major daily demand zone, while sentiment and macro flows suggest downside pressure remains in play—but also allow room for a potential contrarian rally (short squeeze). 👉 Action Plan: Wait for intraday/daily confirmation: Go long above 1.1045 (breakout confirmation) → target 1.1170 Go short below 1.0980 (bearish continuation) → target 1.0860
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
MicroStrategy another pull back before all time high?NASDAQ:MSTR analysis update.. 📉 𝙇𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 The weekly R5 pivot target is bold at $1500 but definitely possible as a max greed scenario when the triple tailwind of Bitcoin, SPY and Bitcoin treasury companies trends return. 📉 𝙎𝙝𝙤𝙧𝙩 𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙢 retracement is expected to end around the S1 pivot at $341 and a secondary target of $321. Irans conflict has investors shaken and not willing to hold assets over the weekend on the fear of worse. However, if the conflict is resolved soon investors could have a great buying opportunity. 𝙏𝙚𝙘𝙝𝙣𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝘼𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙮𝙨𝙞𝙨 Price appears to have completed wave (B) of an ABC correction in wave 4. Wave C is underway with an expected thrust down (such is the nature of wave C) towards the daily S1 pivot $341. This is also the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, a high probability area for wave 4 to end. A deeper correction will bring up a triple shield of the High Volume Node, ascending daily 200EMA and 0.5 fibonacci retracement at £321. Daily DEMA has death crossed. Safe trading
NASDAQ:MSTR
by Maddox_Metrics
DG Trading Setup: Capitalizing on RangeDollar General has experienced a stabilization phase following its Q1 2025 results, with same-store sales increasing 2.4% and revenue growing 5.3% to $10.4 billion. The company has regained traction in the discount retail space, mitigating previous challenges related to shrink and operational inefficiencies. Institutional Flow & Market Positioning Recent institutional flow highlights large orders in DG’s 115 call and 110 put, signaling either: - A range-bound setup, where smart money expects the stock to stay between $110-$115 in the near term. - Potential volatility, with institutions hedging both directions ahead of an unexpected move. Considering the ATR (18) and standard deviation (7.353), this aligns with a low-breakout probability, making range-based strategies the optimal play. The absence of earnings between now and July further supports sideways movement expectations. Options Trade Setup: Iron Condor To capitalize on premium decay and IV contraction, I’m structuring an iron condor: - Sell 115 Call / Buy 120 Call - Sell 110 Put / Buy 105 Put This strategy ensures limited risk while collecting premium in a high-probability range trade.
NYSE:DG
by Wiiso
Could Microstrategy be a 1 Trillion dollar mcap company?!Microstrategy and Michael Saylor evoke a spectrum of opinions, with analysts offering a diverse range of potential future valuations. High risk, high reward! The destiny of Microstrategy’s market capitalization is clearly linked to Bitcoin’s performance. The company has been utilizing debt to acquire the cryptocurrency, aiming to create significant spreads. This leverage is the reason why the stock has significantly outperformed Bitcoin throughout 2024. I am confident that Bitcoin can indeed reach $200k, with a potential upper price target of $250K for this cycle, indicating a potentially explosive Q3 and Q4. The lingering question is how much additional FOMO and premium Saylor can cultivate for his leveraged vehicle in such an environment? That's why charting is such a key component to any personal investing strategy IMHO, as we navigate these markets.
NASDAQ:MSTR
by BallaJi
2
EUR/USD Bulls in Control... But the Trap Is Set at 1.1600? 🇺🇸 EUR/USD – Technical & Macro Outlook EUR/USD has posted an impressive rally over the past few weeks, driven by a combination of technical and macro factors. It is currently trading around 1.1586, right at the edge of a major supply zone where previous sharp rejections and reversals have taken place. 🔍 Technical Analysis Price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in mid-April, fueling the bullish move from the 1.07 lows. The current daily candle is showing signs of exhaustion within the 1.1550–1.1600 resistance zone, with upper wicks and declining volume. RSI is in a high-neutral zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for more upside — but also increasing the probability of a technical pullback. 🔁 Key Levels: Primary resistance: 1.1600 (multi-touch supply area) Support 1: 1.1460–1.1430 (previous resistance, now potential support) Support 2: 1.1300–1.1270 (demand zone + channel base) 📉 COT Report – June 3, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators) remain net-long with over 200,000 contracts, though both long (-1,540) and short (-4,830) positions saw reductions. This suggests a bullish structure with early signs of profit-taking. Commercials are heavily net-short, with 575,000 short contracts versus 437,000 long — a structurally bearish stance from physical market participants. Open interest increased significantly by +20,813, pointing to renewed speculative participation and potential volatility. 🧭 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily short (80%) with an average entry around 1.1253. This contrarian behavior is typically supportive of continued upside pressure — especially if price holds above key supports. 📅 Seasonality – June Historical averages over 10, 15, and 20 years show a slightly bullish tendency in June. The 2- and 5-year patterns suggest more neutral to mildly bearish behavior. This supports a consolidation or corrective pullback, without ruling out higher moves during the summer rally. 🎯 Trading Conclusion Current bias: Moderately bullish, with rising pullback risks near 1.1600 Possible setup: Tactical short between 1.1580–1.1610 if confirmed by bearish price action Target: 1.1430–1.1300 Bullish scenario remains valid unless we break below 1.1270 📌 Summary The bullish trend is strong but technically extended. Speculative positions remain net-long but are starting to unwind. The retail crowd is still betting against the move, which favors bulls. However, structural resistance calls for caution — a pullback could be imminent.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Bitcoin’s Decentralization Is a Fairy TaleBitcoin was born as a revolutionary, decentralized currency, promising financial freedom and independence from traditional banking systems. Yet, as we analyze its real-world distribution, it becomes clear that Bitcoin’s decentralization is more myth than reality. 🔍 The Illusion of Decentralization Bitcoin operates on a decentralized blockchain, meaning no single entity controls the network. However, when we examine who actually owns Bitcoin, we see a highly concentrated wealth structure that mirrors traditional financial inequality. 📊 Bitcoin’s Wealth Concentration The top 0.01% of Bitcoin wallets control over 37% of total supply. The top 1% of Bitcoin holders control over 40% of Bitcoin. The top 2% of Bitcoin wallets control over 95% of total supply. The bottom 98% of wallets hold less than 5% of Bitcoin. The bottom 50% of wallets hold less than 0.03% of Bitcoin. 10,000 Bitcoin investors own 5 million BTC, worth $230 billion. Institutional investors and early adopters dominate Bitcoin ownership. This means that a tiny fraction of wallets dominate the entire market, while millions of small holders own completely insignificant amounts. 💰 Bitcoin vs Traditional Wealth Inequality Bitcoin was supposed to be more equitable than traditional finance, but its wealth distribution is even more extreme than global financial inequality. Bitcoin’s wealth gap is far worse than traditional financial inequality, proving that decentralization does not mean fair distribution. 📉 How Did Bitcoin Become So Centralized? 1. Early Adopters Accumulated Massive Holdings Bitcoin’s first miners and tech-savvy investors acquired BTC when it was nearly worthless. Many of these wallets still hold huge amounts, making redistribution difficult. 2. Institutional Investors Took Over Hedge funds, exchanges, and corporations now control a massive portion of BTC. Bitcoin ETFs and custodial wallets concentrate ownership even further. 3. Lost & Dormant Bitcoin Shrinks Circulating Supply An estimated 29% of Bitcoin is lost or inactive, meaning fewer coins are available. This makes the remaining BTC even more concentrated among active holders. 🚨 The Harsh Reality: Bitcoin Is Not Financial Freedom Bitcoin was supposed to empower individuals, but in practice, it has become a playground for the wealthy. Decentralization in theory ≠ decentralization in reality. Institutional investors and exchanges hold a massive portion of BTC. Bitcoin’s fixed supply (21 million BTC) makes redistribution nearly impossible. Bitcoin is not the democratized financial system it was promised to be—it’s just another asset class where the rich get richer. NASDAQ:MSTR NYSE:CRCL NASDAQ:COIN TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NASDAQ:MARA
SWISSQUOTE:BTCUSDShort
by CassianDrake