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10 EMA strategy ^BEST TREND-FOLLOWING STRATEGY^Welcome! Today, I'm excited to share with you one of the most effective trend-following strategies that is adaptable to any timeframe and asset class ( OANDA:XAUUSD , NSE:NIFTY , FX:USDCHF ), boasting a remarkable risk/reward ratio of up to 1:10. Let's dive right in. As mentioned, this strategy revolves around the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), specifically the 10-period EMA. For those unfamiliar, the EMA places greater emphasis on recent price data compared to a Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing a dynamic view of market trends. When the price on your chart is above the 10 EMA, it signifies a bullish trend; conversely, when the 10 EMA is above the price, it indicates a bearish trend. Let's illustrate with an example: Imagine a bullish trend with four consecutive green candles followed by a red candle. Our entry point occurs when this red candle, the trigger candle, fails to touch the 10 EMA. Subsequently, when a green candle crosses above the high of the trigger candle, we enter the trade. Setting our stop loss (SL) just below the EMA line beneath the trigger candle, we establish our take profit (TP) based on a risk/reward ratio, starting at 1:2 and potentially reaching an impressive 1:10. Trailing the 10 EMA line allows us to stay in the trade longer, albeit experiencing initial stop-loss hits. However, perseverance reveals the strategy's efficacy over time. Now, for short positions, such as during a downtrend characterized by three red candles followed by a green candle, our entry occurs when the low of the green candle is breached by the subsequent red candle. Setting the SL just above the EMA line above the trigger candle and TP based on the risk/reward ratio, we execute the trade. For those interested in trailing stops, there are two options: firstly, trailing along the 10 EMA line; secondly, utilizing the Average True Range (ATR) for algorithmic trading enthusiasts. With this strategy's flexibility and potential for significant returns, it offers traders a robust approach to navigating diverse market conditions. ***Here are 2 examples of Long & Short: Long position in BINANCE:SOLUSDT www.tradingview.com Short in FOREXCOM:EURCAD It's crucial not only to grasp the concept of this strategy but also to put it into practice. 💼 Start by implementing it with small capital or utilize paper trading, which platforms like TradingView offer. 📝 Additionally, don't hesitate to experiment. For instance, try using an 11-period EMA and assess its effectiveness. You might find that it better suits your trading style and objectives. 🧪💡 Remember, trading is a journey of discovery! 🚀 Don't be afraid to explore new strategies and techniques along the way. 🌟 Like (boost), follow, comment, and share this strategy to spread the knowledge and empower fellow traders! 📈🚀👍 For the optimal TradingView experience, upgrade now to unlock the platform's full potential: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by smarttrader012
How to Use Stop Loss Orders in Trading?Stop loss order is the order that automatically closes your trade once it reaches a specified price target. Learn all about it here. Table of Contents: 🔹What Is a Stop Loss Order? 🔹Why Stop Loss Orders Matter? 🔹Setting Stop Loss Levels 🔹Types of Stop Loss Orders 🔹Adjusting Your Stop Loss Orders 🔹Summary In trading, reducing risks is oftentimes all that matters to achieving success. One of the essential tools to protect your investments from steep or unexpected losses is the stop loss order. Understanding how to use stop loss orders can unlock your path to profitability by allowing you to balance your risk and reward ratio. In other words, with the right stop loss setup, you can shoot for asymmetrical risk returns by keeping your drawdown small and letting your profits run. Let’s dive into the exciting world of trading and see how stop loss orders can be your greatest ally in trading. 📍 What Is a Stop Loss Order? A stop loss order is an essential risk management tool used by traders to limit potential losses on a trade. By using a stop loss order, you instruct your broker to automatically sell the asset you’re holding when it reaches a predetermined price level that is below your purchase price, or entry. A stop loss order allows you to control your losses and protect your investments so you don’t have to sit glued to the screen all the time. 📍 Why Stop Loss Orders Matter Stop loss orders play a big role in risk management. These easy-to-set trading tools help traders stick to predefined risk tolerance levels by limiting the amount of money they are willing to lose on any given trade. Without a stop loss order in place, traders may give in to emotional decision-making during periods of market volatility, leading to potential losses. If you have a hard time cutting your losses If you have a hard time cutting your losses when —ok, we get it, you're a bigshot— IF positions go against you, setting a stop loss when you enter the market will do the hard work for you. ➡️ Risk Management: One of the primary reasons stop loss orders are essential is because they help traders manage risk effectively. This is crucial in volatile markets where prices can fluctuate rapidly, as it prevents significant losses that could otherwise occur if trades were left unattended. ➡️ Emotional Control: Trading can evoke strong emotions such as fear and greed, which can lead to irrational decision-making. Without a stop loss order in place, traders may be tempted to hold onto losing positions in the hope that the market will reverse in their favor. ➡️ Peace of Mind: Knowing that there is a safety net in place can provide traders with peace of mind. Stop loss orders allow you to do your thing in the market without obsessively watching charts and tickers. Set your stop loss orders and focus on other aspects of your market study like catching up on the latest market-moving news and analysis . ➡️ Preventing Catastrophic Losses: In extreme market conditions, prices can experience sudden and significant declines. Without stop loss orders, traders risk experiencing catastrophic losses that could wipe out a significant portion of their capital. ➡️ Enforcing Discipline: Successful trading requires discipline and adherence to a well-defined trading plan. Stop loss orders help enforce discipline by striving to ensure that traders stick to their predetermined risk management rules. If trading is about discipline and consistency, then stop loss orders are the stepping stone to success. 📍 Setting Stop Loss Levels Choosing the appropriate stop loss level is a critical aspect of using stop loss orders effectively. Traders should consider various factors, including their risk tolerance, investment objectives, market conditions, and the volatility of the asset being traded. A common approach is to set the stop loss below a significant support level or a recent low in an uptrend (if you have a long position) and above a significant resistance level or a recent high in a downtrend (if you have a short position). Example: Suppose you purchase shares of a company called X (not Elon Musk’s privately held X Corp., which he created by rebranding Twitter) at $50 per share. You estimate that a 5% decline in the stock price would indicate a potential trend reversal. Therefore, you set your stop loss order at $47.50 per share to limit your potential loss to 5% of your investment. 📍 Types of Stop Loss Orders There are several types of stop loss orders that traders can utilize, each with its own special characteristics. The most common types include: ➡️ Market Stop Loss: a type of stop loss order that triggers a market order to sell the instrument at the prevailing market price once the stop loss level is reached. ➡️ Stop Limit: with a stop limit order, you have to deal with two types of prices. The first one is the price that will trigger a sell and the limit price. But instead of converting your order into a sell based on current market prices, you set a limit price. ➡️ Trailing Stop Loss: A trailing stop loss order is dynamically adjusted based on the movement of the instrument’s price. It allows traders to lock in profits while giving the trade room to move in their favor. Example: You purchase shares of a big tech company at $100 per share, and the stock price then rises to $120 per share. You set a trailing stop loss order with a 10% trail. If the stock price declines by 10% from its peak, the trailing stop loss order will trigger, selling the shares at prevailing market prices. 📍 Adjusting Stop Loss Orders While setting stop loss orders is essential, monitoring and adjusting them as market conditions evolve is equally important. Traders should regularly reassess their stop loss levels to account for changes in volatility, price action, and overall market sentiment. Additionally, as profits accumulate, trailing stop loss orders should be adjusted to protect gains and minimize potential losses. 📍 Summary In conclusion, stop loss orders are one of the most essential and effective tools for traders seeking to manage risk and preserve and grow capital in the challenging world of trading. By understanding how to use stop loss orders effectively, you can rein in emotional decision-making, protect your investments, and increase your chances of long-term success. Whether you're a novice or an experienced trader, integrating stop loss orders into your trading strategy is a smart approach to navigate the twists and turns of the financial markets. Remember, trading involves inherent risks, but with proper risk management techniques like stop loss orders, you can tilt the odds of success in your favor. ❓Do you use stop loss orders when trading? Which type ? Let us know in the comments ⬇️
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
12
EUR/USD | Heading Towards 1.10 Without Fed Rate CutsThe beginning of the week saw the US dollar strengthen, pushing the EUR/USD below the key support level of 1.0900. A break of the March peak at 1.0981 is expected to lead the pair to challenge resistance at 1.0998 and the psychological barrier at 1.1000. However, a potential drop below the 200-day moving average at 1.0838 could push the pair to the 2024 low of 1.0694. In the macroeconomic context, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are considering starting their easing cycles, leading to a strengthening of the dollar in the medium term. Consequently, the EUR/USD may correct downwards towards 1.0700 and possibly towards 1.0500 in the long term. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a price decline towards the 1.0800 zone before bouncing off the trendline and resuming upward movement, with a target at 1.1000. Further updates will follow. Regards and happy trading to all from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
GOLD: Road to $2300Gold trading experienced a pronounced negative trend below the $2,170 level during Friday's session, primarily influenced by the persistent strength of the US dollar. Nevertheless, the pair appears poised to record modest weekly gains after pulling back from the record high above $2,220 touched on Wednesday. From a technical standpoint, there seems to be a continuation of selling pressure below the overnight swing low, situated around the $2,166 area, or the 100-hour moving average. This could expose support at $2,146 or the weekly low. On the flip side, the psychological level of $2,200 currently seems to act as an immediate hurdle. Above this level, there might be an opportunity for bulls to target the record high, around the $2,223 zone touched on Thursday. Additionally, a generally positive risk tone and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza further contributed to the bearish pressure on gold, considered a safe haven. The Federal Reserve (Fed) projected a less restrictive policy and three interest rate cuts for 2024, increasing speculation for a potential move at the June meeting. This scenario is supported by further declines in US Treasury yields, which could temper bullish sentiment on the US dollar and provide some support to the gold price, despite its lack of yield.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDCAD| FED vs BOC, who will win?The USD/CAD is currently hovering around 1.3540 during the Asian hours on Friday, indicating potential signs of a halt to its four-day consecutive negative trend. This stabilization could be attributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the US dollar, fueled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on maintaining higher interest rates. Specifically, the US annualized GDP recorded a growth of 3.4% in the fourth quarter, surpassing market expectations. Governor Christopher Waller's cautious remarks about delaying rate cuts have helped temper expectations of rate reductions in 2024. On the other hand, the Canadian dollar has seen an uptick due to prospects of foreign currency inflows, supported by the rise in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. This growth is linked to expectations that OPEC+ will continue production cuts. These developments have bolstered confidence in Canada's economic outlook, reducing expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Bank of Canada (BoC). Therefore, I anticipate a decline towards 1.34 before a recovery towards 1.36. On a weekly basis, the market is consolidating, with too much uncertainty surrounding the future policies of central banks at the moment. It's important to remain cautious and prudent. Best wishes to all for successful trading.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
HOW-TO: Accumulation Strategy 2024What if instead of buying a stock, crypto, currency only once and holding until we are in profit, we split our strategy capital and buy several times, until the total is in profit ? Yes, that is DCA you’d say. Ok, but what if instead of buying at predetermined intervals, we bought at oversold RSI, or on a double bottom, for example ? That’s the idea behind the Accumulation Strategy, which I’m going to explain in detail in this article. █  Simple Example The strategy comes with several features, and the easiest way to explain them is through examples. The Max Active Deals input allows to limit how many times the strategy can trigger a buy in a trade, just like the pyramiding setting. It can go up to 100. In this example, the strategy has 10 max active deals. and is using the RSI feature to buy when RSI crosses below a configurable threshold, here 25. Note: to get stronger signals, the RSI time frame has been set to 1 hour, since the chart is in a 30 min time frame. In this trade, the strategy bought 8 times (yellow arrows) before selling at take profit, but it could have bought twice more. █  Take Profit Feature Customisable in the input tab, this feature allows you to set one or multiple take profit(s). You can set the value in either %, pips, or Auto mode. To create multiple targets, increase the Number of take profit and set the Step between each TP. In our previous example, instead of just one, I set 3 TPs with 1% value and a step of 1. The strategy will sell progressively at a quantity split even at each take profit, until the last TP is hit. Note: Using multiple take profit is often used to improve risk management in trading. █  Built-in Entry Options The strategy comes with several built-in indicators, such as the RSI that we’ve seen, but here’s the list: MTF RSI cross, RSI divergences MTF Stochastic cross MTF Bollinger Bands cross Top & Bottoms Double Top & bottoms Higher/Lower Lows/Highs Custom External Entries If you want to use ANY external indicator from the TradingView library and use it as an entry signal, you can! For example, let’s use the Squeeze Momentum Indicator by Lazybear. After adding it to the chart, we select the first plot which is the histogram. Then we select the condition “crossover” and “0”. It will create a buy when the histogram turns green. █  Trend Filters In trading, we try to avoid going against the global trend. The strategy comes with several built-in trendlines, MTF, or you can use ANY external trendline from the TV library. The strategy offers other built-in filters such as volume, overbought in range/trending market, or flat market entry filters. █  Stop Loss The stop loss can be turned on/off. You can set the value in either %, pips, ATR or Auto mode. Note: When to use a Stop Loss? Using a stop kind of defeats the purpose of the strategy, but it can be useful if you plan to trade highly volatile and risky coins (remember LUNA ?) That is why the option is there. █  How to use the strategy The indicator access is unlocked by subscribing on my website. See the links below this article. █  Setting up a strategy You can set up a strategy on your own chart in just one click using the preconfigured charts I will share below, or you can simply add the indicator yourself and play with the settings. Backtesting Backtesting is automatically done in the Strategy Tester Tab. Creating Alerts Once you have your strategy setup on the chart: 1 - Set the alert message in the indicator inputs (scroll to the bottom, you will find an “alert’ section) 2 - Save your chart and do not touch it anymore unless you want to update your alert (optional but recommended) 3 - Create an alert on Cyatophilum Accumulation Strategy, using the option “alert() function calls only” (this is really important!) Only one alert is needed to handle all the strategy events! (entry, take profit, stop loss, etc.) Even a free TradingView user can create a strategy! Automation The subscription that I offer also comes with Automation bots using the Binance spot trading API . Important: if you wish to automate your strategies, make sure your TradingView account has access to alert webhook notifications . That’s it for this tutorial! Pretty easy right? No, I know it can get complicated at first. 😣 That is why I make preconfigured charts. Once you have access, click on the chart link, then click “copy”, then “save” your “layout” to get your own chart that you can use and edit. Enjoy! █  Preconfigured charts BTC/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com ETH/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com BNB/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com MATIC/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com EGLD/USDT Chart: www.tradingview.com
Education
by cyatophilum
USDJPY is ready to go down after September rates cutResumption of the rate up to 151.00 and rebound of the US Dollar: The US Dollar has shown a recovery, bringing the USD/JPY rate back up to 151.00. This suggests an increase in demand for US Dollars compared to the Japanese Yen, which could be influenced by a range of economic and geopolitical factors. Upward revision of US economic outlook: The upward revision of the US economic outlook has further supported the US Dollar. This can be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the strength of the US economy, which may attract investors towards the Dollar. Expectations of Japanese intervention and accommodative stance of the BoJ: Despite growing expectations of intervention by Japan to limit the strength of the Yen, the accommodative stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) appears to limit the effectiveness of such measures. This could indicate a challenge for Japan in managing the exchange rate of its currency. Region-specific demand in global markets: There is region-specific demand in global markets, with risk-sensitive assets in Europe under pressure and a surprising reduction in interest rates by the Swiss National Bank. These events may impact the movement of the USD/JPY rate as they reflect capital flows and global economic dynamics. Federal Reserve (Fed) projections and monetary policy: Federal Reserve projections indicate an upward revision of the US growth rate, which could influence monetary policy decisions and movements of the US Dollar. Speculation about imminent interest rate cuts may also weigh on the US Dollar. Speculation about Japanese intervention and statements from the Japanese Finance Minister: Speculation about Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market and statements from the Japanese Finance Minister reflect attention on the USD/JPY exchange rate and may influence investor confidence in the Japanese Yen.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Backtesting Settings For the Logical Trading Indicator V.1Since creating the Logical Trading Indicator, my trading game has changed in a big and positive way. But I have been curious as to how I can make an automated strategy with it and how much it makes. The Logical Trading Indicator has many different signals and alerts that you can use to create your own trading strategies that work best for your trading plan. Over the weekend, I have been tinkering around with the base strategy of buy when I get a buy signal and sell when i get a sell signal. I have played around with both a long and short strategy mainly focusing on the BTCUSD pairing. I am really doing this to help me find the best settings possible for each time frame and letting the strategy do the backtesting for me. This really helps me to figure out how it does over the past year or so. So far, at least for BTC, a LONG only strategy has yielded the best results. Mainly because I couldn't get it to fire shorts the way I wanted it to. This is where machines still need some human guidance, as well as your trades, haha. Dialing It In What I am doing is going into different timeframes and finding the best settings for the ATR multiple and length in combination with basis length and the long period moving average. I have been recording the results primarily on the 5 minute as well as the 1 HR and 4 HR time frames because those are the main time frames I focus on. I have played around with different variations of functions, but TradingView can't seem to get things to fire on the strategy the same way I can get the main indicator to fire. But based on this, I set the strategy to a simple LONG only strategy where it buys when you get a BUY signal and then closes when you get a SELL signal, with the addition of a stop loss function that let's me set a stop loss percentage to provide some additional risk management to help with the drawdown percentage. In this backtest, the strategy was not taking the 'Take Profit' signals into account, or when I tried to include them in the logic, they weren't firing properly, so I kept it simple with just the BUY and SELL signals with a stop loss. If you used the built in take profit signals, you can do even better than these results. On the 5 minute time frame, the most profitable settings ended up being: ATR Multiple: 3 ATR Length: 1 Basis Length: 15 EMA Long Period Moving Average: 50 SMA These settings yielded over 100% profit for the backtesting period, which is about a year. For the 1 HR time frame, the winning settings were: ATR Multiple: 3 ATR Length: 6 Basis Length: 20 EMA Long Period Moving Average: 100 SMA These settings yielded over 200% profit for the backtesting period with almost 60% win rate! Again, you could maximize this even more by utilizing the take profit signals and using short trades when the trend is right and if you are trading on a futures exchange. I have been doing more spot trading on DEXs lately, so I have been trading long only lately. The Importance of Backtesting I cannot stress this enough, you have to back test your strategies to make sure they are going to be profitable. This can be done manually by going back in time on the charts and finding all of your signals and seeing if it was profitable, or you can create your own strategy like this using TradingView's Pinescript and let the program do the backtesting for you. However you do your backtesting, just make sure it gets done! You don't want to just think an indicator or a strategy works, you want to KNOW it works! If not, you could be throwing your money down the drain. This is Only A Test- But Great For Info Gathering I am only using this strategy for my own backtesting purposes, not publishing it. I simply used one part of the strategy that is built into the Logical Trading Indicator, and it honestly doesn't properly utilize multiple options for exits as far as the automated strategy goes. I know that if I use these settings, but also use my built in take profit signals, I can do much better than these results are showing. What is great about this is you can see the performance and find trades that you wouldn't have taken in the first place, or entries and exits that could have been done better by trading manually. For example, after looking at the list of trades, I saw several trades I would have either gotten out of for better profit using the take profit signals, or trades I wouldn't have taken in the first place due to consolidation or accounting for the larger trend. When trying to program some of the other functions from the main indicator, TradingView would freak out on me a bit and not want to provide any results, or results that just didn't make any sense. But that is all a part of the process. It helps you figure out that the machines don't always have it right, and that having just a bit of 'human' in your trades can make your performance even better than the strategy suggests! Living That Trader Life This is the life of a good trader, at least in my opinion. Based on my trading plan, I do not trade on the weekends, even though the crypto markets are open, it isn't always the best time to trade. I like to take this time to go over my trading journal to see where I can improve, perfect my strategies, and hone in on the things I need to work on to get better. What this development work does for me is show me that automated trading is great, but with the combination of a great indicator that can produce trading alerts, and my own trader's intuition, I can give the markets a serious beating and come out with some amazing gains, as long as I stick to the plan, as well as trade manually with the signals! This helps me keep the emotions out of the game and let's me use the data with the correct settings to make the best decisions possible in my trades for the biggest gains! So get out there and do some backtesting on your favorite strategies to see if you really are trading logically!
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by thelogicaldude
HOW-TO use the Fundamental Strength Indicator? (full guide)Below is the complete instruction on how to use the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Part 1: The Fundamental Strength of the Company To understand what it is for, let's imagine that you manage a long-distance running team, and you need to recruit a team of excellent athletes. However, you don’t even know the names of these athletes or their contract amounts. You only have information about their health and athletic performance: hemoglobin and iron content in the blood, maximal oxygen consumption, steps-per-minute rate, speed, age, etc. Each player has their own large table with different parameters. And you have, let’s say, a thousand tables like that. If you spend 3 minutes studying one table, it will take you 50 hours to analyze all the tables, which is just over 2 days of continuous work. And how long would it take to compare each athlete with the rest? Approximately 2 years of continuous work. This is obviously no good, that is why you take a computer, enter all the data from the tables and start thinking about how you can reduce the time to compare one athlete with another. As a result of your brainstorming, you come to the following conclusions: — Each parameter has its range of values, which can give you an idea of whether an athlete is suitable or not suitable for a marathon. — The parameter may have its dynamics: it may increase from month to month, stay the same, or decrease. — Each parameter can be assigned a score. For example, the step-per-minute rate can be: — 175 and above (+1 point) — 165–174 (0 points) — 164 and below (-1 point) And you do that with each parameter. What are these points for? To convert indicators that use different units into one measurement system. Thanks to this method, you can now compare apples to oranges. Then, you sum up all the points per month and get one single number — let's call it athletic strength. You like your thought process, and you apply this algorithm to every athlete’s table. Now, instead of dozens of parameters per month, you have one number (athletic strength) for each athlete. It looks like your task has been dramatically simplified. Next, to study the dynamics of athletic strength from month to month, you “ask” your computer to create a plot for each of the athletes. This chart shows that Athlete #1's athletic strength has fluctuated chaotically in the first three quarters of 2022, possibly due to the lack of regular training. But then you observe a positive trend, where athletic strength has grown from month to month. It seems like the athlete has taken up training. Then, to compare one athlete with another, you “ask” your computer to add the average value of athletic strength over the past six months (average pre-competition training period) to the existing plot. Now, you can use the most average recent value as a weighted score of athletic strength and compare athletes with each other based on this value. Thanks to this solution, you accelerate the analysis process by a magnitude: one athlete – one number. It appears that you can then simply sort the table by the highest athletic strength weighted score and consider the best athletes. However, not wanting to sort the table every time the data is updated or when you get new athletes, you make a better decision. The logic behind the points system implies that there is a maximum and a minimum possible number of points that one athlete can get. This allows you to create ranges of scores for athletes with excellent, mediocre, and poor training. For example, let’s say the maximum is 15 and the minimum is -15. Athletes with a score of 8 to 15 will be considered as strong, 1 to 7 – mediocre, and 0 to -15 – weak. That’s it! Now, thanks to this gradation, you can simply check which range the weighted athletic strength falls within, and decide whether each athlete will be admitted to the team. I believe that now your primary selection will take no more than one working day (including a lunch break). Now let's mentally replace athletes with public companies. Instead of data on health and athletic performance, we will have data from the companies’ financial statements and financial ratios. Applying a similar algorithm, we will get the fundamental strength of the company instead of athletic strength. I think it's time to show the Fundamental Strength Indicator . Let's launch! What do we see? — First, it is a Histogram with bars of three colors: green, orange, and red. The width of the histogram depends on the depth of data from the company statements. The more historical data, the wider the histogram over time. The green color of the bars means that the company has been showing excellent financial results by the sum of the factors in that period. According to my terminology, the company has a “strong foundation” during this period. Green corresponds to values between 8 and 15 (where 15 is the maximum possible positive value on the sum of the factors). The orange color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors during this period the company demonstrated mediocre financial results, i.e., it has a “mediocre foundation” . Orange color corresponds to values from 1 to 7. The red color of the bars means that according to the sum of factors in this period of time, the company demonstrated weak financial results, i.e., it has a “weak foundation” . The red color corresponds to values from -15 to 0 (where -15 is the maximum possible negative value on the sum of factors). — Second, this is the Blue Line , which is the moving average of the Histogram bars over the last year (*). Averaging over the year is necessary to obtain a weighted estimate that is not subject to medium-term fluctuations. It is by the last value of the blue line that the actual Fundamental Strength of the company is determined. (*) The last year means the last 252 trading days, including the current trading day. — Third, these are operating, investing, and financing Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These flows look like thick green, orange, and red lines, respectively. — Fourth, this is the Table on the left, which shows the latest actual value of the Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows. Indicator settings: In the indicator settings, I can disable the visibility of the Histogram, Blue Line, Cash Flows (each separately), and Table. It helps to study each of the parameters separately. It is also possible to change the color, transparency, and thickness of lines. The movie Moneyball was released in 2011, where Brad Pitt plays the role of Billy Bean, the sports manager of the Oakland Athletics baseball team. With a small budget, he managed to assemble a high-scoring team based on the analysis of player performance. As a result, this approach was applied by other teams in the league, and Billy Bean received massive recognition from the professional community. Part 2: Benchmark Business Model One day, when I had already grasped the concept of the Fundamental Strength of a company, I was returning home from vacation. I was in a taxi and the driver was listening to an audiobook. As the drive took longer than an hour, I had nothing to do but listen to the story. I liked the content. It was a fictional novel with a plot centered around the main character named Alex Rogo. He is a manager of one of the three enterprises of the UniCo corporation. Even though Alex spends all his time and energy on work, things are not going very well for the company: over the past six months, the company has only had losses. This leaves Alex's executives no choice but to give him an ultimatum: if he can’t radically improve the situation in three months, the enterprise will be shut down, and he will be left without a job. At the same time, Alex's wife is tired of her husband’s absence in her personal life, so she decides to leave him. Anyway, the story's beginning turned out to be very dramatic, and I wondered how Alex would cope with all this. Luckily, in this stressful time, he meets his former physics teacher Jonah, who now consults companies regarding efficient production. Alex tells his old acquaintance about what’s going on and how he managed to increase labor productivity at the enterprise after purchasing new robots. However, the losses continue to hang over his head like the sword of Damocles. After listening to Alex's story, Jonah wisely suggests that the problem with his enterprise lies in the management is concerned about anything but the main goal of their business, which is creating money or profit. Jonah explains to Alex that all management ideas related to expanding the sales market, using new technologies, or improving product quality can lead the company to a disaster if fundamental things are not considered. In his opinion, management should only focus on three indicators: — Throughput , which is the rate at which a company makes money through sales. — Inventory , which is all the money invested by the company in assets: premises, equipment, patents, raw materials, etc.: that is, in something that can then be sold. — Operational expenses , which are all the money a company spends turning investments into cash, or something that can’t be sold, such as the salary of employees, the cost of rent, payment for delivery services, etc. Thus, the management’s job is to make improvements that will ultimately lead to an increase in Throughput and a decrease in Inventory and Operational expenses. For example, Alex’s purchase of robots to increase the number of products produced has led to an increase in production. However, suppose you look at it through the prism proposed by Jonah. In that case, we actually have the following picture: Inventory has increased, Operational expenses have not decreased (no one has been fired), and the robots can’t contribute to sales growth in any way (the Throughput is not increasing). As a result, this was not an improvement, but a deterioration. The accumulation of such bad decisions eventually leads to the unprofitability of the company. Conversely, continuous improvements that will increase the Throughput and reduce Inventory and Operational expenses will inevitably lead to achieving the main goal – making money. After I got home, I tried to find this book on the Internet. It turned out that it was written by physicist and philosopher Eliyahu M. Goldratt back in 1984. The novel is called The Goal . That’s when I realized that if the company's management adheres to the approach described by Goldratt, then after a while, we will most likely see a fundamentally strong company. And the Fundamental Strength Indicator clearly shows how much the management has succeeded along this path. For example, according to Goldratt, an increase in Throughput should lead to an increase in Earnings per share (EPS) and Total revenue . The reduction in Inventory may be linked with a decrease in Inventory to revenue ratio . Optimization of Operational expenses will definitely reduce the Operating expense ratio . All these parameters are considered when calculating the Fundamental Strength of the company. So, let's move on to the methodology for calculating the Fundamental Strength Indicator. The main idea that inspired me to create this indicator is: "Even if you buy just 1 share of a company, treat it like buying the whole business" . Guided by this approach, you can imagine what kind of business an investor is interested in owning and simultaneously determine the input parameters for calculating the indicator. For me, a benchmark business is: — A business that operates efficiently without diminishing the return on shareholders' investment. To assess the efficiency and profitability of a business, I use the following financial ratios(*): Diluted EPS and Return on Equity (ROE). The first two parameters for calculating the indicator are there. — A business that scales sales and optimizes its costs. From this perspective, the following financial ratios are suitable: Gross margin, Operating expense ratio, and Total revenue. Plus three other metrics. — A business that turns goods/services into cash quickly and does not fall behind on payments to suppliers. The following financial ratios will fit here: Days payable, Days sales outstanding, and Inventory to revenue ratio. These are three more metrics. — A business that does not resort to significant accounts payable and shows financial strength. Here I use the following financial ratios: Current ratio, Interest coverage, and Debt to revenue ratio. These are the last three parameters. (*) If you are keen to learn more about these financial ratios, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Financial ratios: digesting them together What can financial ratios tell us? Next, each of the parameters is assigned a certain number of points based on its last value or the position of that value relative to the annual maximum and minimum. For example, if the Current ratio: — greater than or equal to 2 (+1 point); — less than or equal to 1 (-1 point); — more than 1 but less than 2 (0 points). Or for example, if Diluted EPS: — near or above the annual high (+2 points); — near the annual minimum and below (-2 points); — between the annual maximum and minimum (0 points). And so on with each of the parameters. As a result, the maximum number of points a company can score is 15 points. The minimum number of points a company can score is -15 points. These levels are marked with horizontal dotted lines: the green line is for the maximum value, and the red line is for the minimum. I track the number of points for each day of a company's life on a three-color Histogram. The resulting average value for the last year is on the Blue Line. For me, it is the last value of the Blue Line that determines: this is the actual Fundamental Strength of the company. As an additional filter, for example, when comparing two companies where all other conditions are equal: I use the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income. These are the thick green, orange, and red lines over the Histogram. Examples: Below, I will evaluate various companies using the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Tesla, Inc. The indicator shows that since 2020, Tesla Inc. has been steadily increasing its Fundamental Strength (from 3.27 in Q1 2020 to 12.79 in Q1 2023). This is noticeable both by the color change of the Histogram from orange to green and by the rising Blue Line. If you look in detail at what has been happening with the financials during this time, it's clear what meaningful work the company has done. Revenues have almost quadrupled. Earnings per share have increased 134 times. At the same time, Total debt to revenue fell almost 10 times. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. The company, formed in 2018 by the merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group, has failed to deliver outstanding financial results, causing its Fundamental Strength to fall from 4.63 in Q1 2018 to -0.53 in Q1 2023. During this period, the decline in diluted earnings per share was accompanied by higher debt and deteriorating liquidity. Costco Wholesale Corporation Wholesaler Costco has been surprisingly stable in its financial performance and with steady growth in both earnings and revenue. This is the reason the Histogram bars are exceptionally green throughout the calculation of the indicator. The Fundamental Strength has not changed in three years and is high at 11 points. Part 3: Company Cash Flow Dynamics The other day I came across an interesting article about the work of the Swiss company Glencore International AG in the 1990s. This company specializes in trading raw materials, and at that time it was actively trading with the countries that had left the USSR. None of those countries had foreign currency, and trust in local currencies had not yet appeared, so it was necessary to exchange commodities for commodities like in the Middle Ages. For example, to sell copper in Kazakhstan, a Swiss company bought raw sugar in Brazil, then took it to Ukraine for refining, then the refined sugar was exchanged for Siberian oil in Russia, then the oil was exchanged for copper ore in Mongolia, which was then sent to a plant in Kazakhstan to create copper suitable for sale on the world market. As we can see, money was used here only at the moment of purchase of raw sugar and sale of copper, the rest of the chain of transactions was an exchange of goods for goods. It turns out the following scheme: Money - Raw sugar - Refined sugar - Oil - Copper ore - Copper - Money' Of course, all of this made sense when Money' (with a stroke) equaled big money. Otherwise, the cost of preparing and executing such a complex transaction simply wouldn't have paid off. This example once again convinced me how significant a role money plays in any company's operations. Can you imagine the chaos that a business can become without money and having to make up similar supply chains? Money simplifies and accelerates all processes in a company, so competent management of these flows is the basis of an effective business. If you compare a company to a living organism, Cash Flow(*) is its circulatory system. It is thanks to this system that the company is supplied with everything it needs to produce goods or services. (*) If you are keen to learn more about Cash Flows, I suggest reading my two articles on TradingView: Cash flow statement or Three great rivers Cash flow vibrations Considering that cash flows play a fundamental role in the activity of any company, it is reasonable to assume that their analysis will give us the necessary information to decide. For this reason, an additional parameter was added to the Fundamental Strength Indicator : the dynamics of Cash Flows expressed in Diluted net income(*). (*) Since the value of income can be negative, the Diluted net income module is taken, that is, without the "minus" sign. Why do I use income as a unit of measure of Cash Flows? Because it is a good way to make the scale of indicator values the same for companies from different countries, with different currencies. It also allows you to use a single value scale for both Cash Flows and Fundamental Strength. So, let's take a look at how the dynamics of Cash Flows look like in the Fundamental Strength Indicator. These are three lines of different colors, which are located over the Histogram. Each of the flows corresponds to a specific color: — Operating cash flow: green line; — Investing cash flow: orange line; — Financing cash flow: red line. In this way, I can track the dynamics of the company's Cash Flow over time. To interpret the dynamics of Cash Flows, I pay attention to the following patterns: — How the cash flows are positioned in relation to each other; — In which zone each of the cash flows is located: in the positive or negative; — What is the trend of each of the cash flows; — How volatile each of the cash flows is. As an example, let's look at several companies to interpret the dynamics of their Cash Flows. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. This is the most ideal situation for me: operating cash flow (green line) is above the other cash flows, investment cash flow (orange line) is near zero and practically unchanged, and financial cash flow (red line) is consistently below zero. This picture shows that the company lives off its operating cash flow, does not increase its debt, does not spend a substantial amount of money on expensive purchases, and retains (does not sell off) assets. Parker Hannifin Corporation With stable operating cash flow (green line), the company implements investment programs by raising additional funding. This is noticeable due to an increase in financial cash flow (red line) and a simultaneous decrease in investment cash flow (orange line) with a significant deepening into negative areas. Apparently, there is not enough operating cash flow to realize the planned investments. One has to wonder how sustainable a company can be if it invests in its development using borrowed funds. Schlumberger N. V. The chaotic intertwining of cash flows outside the Fundamental Strength range (-15 to 15) is indicative of the company's rich life, but to me, it is an indicator of high riskiness of its actions. And as we can see, Fundamental Strength has only begun to strengthen in the last year, when the external appearance of cash flow has normalized. Thus, when the Fundamental Strength of two companies is equally good, I use an additional filter in the form of Cash Flow dynamics. This helps me to clarify my interest in this or that company. What is the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator: — allows for a quantitative assessment of a company's financial performance in points (from -15 to 15 points); — allows you to visually track how the company's financial performance has changed (positively/negatively) over time; — allows to visually trace the movement of main cash flows over time; — accelerates the process of selecting companies for your shortlist (if you are focused on financial results when selecting companies); — allows you to protect yourself from investing in companies with weak and mediocre fundamentals. Mandatory requirements for using the indicator: — works only on a daily timeframe; — only applies to shares of public companies; — company financial statements for the last 4 quarters and more are required; — it is necessary to have the data from the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement, required for the calculation. If at least one component required for calculating the Fundamental Strength is missing, the message "no data to calculate the Fundamental Strength correctly" is displayed. In the same case, but for the operating cash flow, the message "no data to calculate the Operating Cash Flow correctly" is shown, and similarly for other flows. Risk disclaimer: When working with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the additional filter in the form of Cash Flows, you should understand that the publication of the Balance sheet, Income statement, and Cash flow statement takes place sometime after the end of the financial quarter. This means that new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statements. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the values of the Indicator after the publication of new statements. The magnitude of this change will depend both on the content of the new statements and on the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statements. Until the date of publication of the new statements, the latest relevant data will be used for calculations. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the calculation of Fundamental Strength and Cash Flows requires the availability of data for all parameters of the valuation model . It uses data that is exclusively available on TradingView (there is no reconciliation with other sources). If at least one parameter is missing, I switch to another company's analysis to continue using the indicator. Thus, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and an additional filter in the form of Cash Flows make it possible to evaluate the financial results of the company based on the available data and the methodology I created. A simple visualization in the form of a three-color Histogram, a Blue line, and three thick Cash Flow lines significantly reduces the time for selecting fundamentally strong companies that fit the criteria of the selected model. However, this Indicator and/or its description and/or examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy