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EURUSD | Best Trading Approach for the London SessionThe EUR/USD exchange rate remains around 1.0900, benefiting from demand in Thursday's Asian trading and the decline of the US dollar. The ECB, with a hawkish stance, opposes expectations of a rate cut, providing additional support. The pair may face downward challenges, with the key level of 1.0844 as the initial support, followed by 1.0723 and other previous lows. Conversely, surpassing the weekly high of 1.0998 could lead to a retest of the December 2023 peak at 1.1139. The technical outlook currently indicates potential short-term losses, with indicators such as a negative MACD and RSI rebounding from the oversold zone. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD recorded new multi-week lows before bouncing to 1.0870, influenced by robust US retail sales data, fueling expectations of a Fed rate cut. Monetary policy tensions also arise in the ECB, with Knot highlighting the discrepancy between market expectations and official forecasts, while Lagarde suggests a potential rate cut in the summer. The increase in bond yields, especially German bunds and US treasuries, has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar. Despite the absence of significant news in the euro area, disappointing results in Chinese fundamentals have added to an atmosphere of uncertainty about the global economic recovery.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
The best trading setup with Entry!In this model, we observe a market that begins to consolidate before a sharp decline, during which liquidity is created with an imbalance. Immediately after, there is an upward movement with rising highs and lows, forming a bullish liquidity trendline. When the price reaches a point where it starts to consolidate, dual liquidity is generated on the buy side in the upper part of the consolidation. Subsequently, a false upward movement occurs, during which the price gains liquidity from the previous order block created by the initial sharp decline. This creates an excellent opportunity to enter a short position, with the aim of reaching the minimum of the main decline. Updates will be provided with an example applied in a real case study. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD TO 2000$ 🤔 ?Gold price has faced a sharp sell-off after failing to recapture the weekly high of $2,062. The precious metal has dropped to near $2,030 and is expected to remain on tenterhooks before getting fresh cues about the timing of rate cuts from the Fed. The yellow metal has surrendered entire gains generated on Monday and has corrected below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $2,039. More downside could appear in the Gold price if it fails to defend the January 3 low of $2,030, which will expose it towards the psychological support of $2,000.
TVC:GOLDShort
by ZumixFX
USOIL is ready for the new high to 75.35$ - 79.80$The WTI oil price has surpassed $73 as investors exercise caution amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Concerns about potential new attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels on commercial shipments in the Red Sea, including U.S. vessels, are contributing to a perception of tightness in the oil supply. However, softer economic data from China in the third quarter may dampen the upward momentum of oil prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has exceeded 103 due to a reduction in bets favoring a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March. WTI is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on a four-hour scale, indicating a contraction in volatility. The key resistance is around $73.60, represented by the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates between 40.00 and 60.00, suggesting that investors are awaiting a potential signal. A bullish breakout above $75.28 could trigger a recovery towards December highs, while a decline below $71.00 may lead the price toward psychological support at $70.00 and the December low of $69.00.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDCAD | Waiting for a pullback to 1.3365 before the bullrun!Currently, the US dollar is gaining ground, benefiting from a weaker market sentiment. Oil prices are trading lower, exerting negative pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD). Later today, we hope that Canada's business outlook and manufacturing sales can provide some support to the Canadian dollar. On this Monday, the Canadian dollar is showing a mixed performance against major currencies but has lost weight against the US dollar, given the reduced trading volume due to the US holiday. Personally, I am interested in the data on Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, with expectations of a slight annual increase. Mainly, I anticipate a decline around 1.3365 with a possible reversal at M15 and a strengthening of the US dollar, leading to an increase up to 1.3540. Best regards and happy trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Choch Entry & Liquidity Model | Trading StrategyIntroduction: The trading strategy "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" has emerged as an innovative model in the financial domain, focusing on market entry and liquidity. This approach is built upon key principles aimed at maximizing returns and effectively managing risk. Fundamental Principles: The strategy relies on an entry approach known as "Choch Entry," which is presumed to provide precise trading signals based on specific indicators. This method aims to capture significant price movements through a detailed analysis of market data. Liquidity Management: Another distinctive element of this strategy is its focus on liquidity. The "Liquidity Model" seeks to optimize order execution, ensuring that the strategy can enter and exit the market efficiently, minimizing slippage and price impact. Practical Implementation: The practical implementation of this strategy requires a thorough understanding of financial instruments and indicators used in the model. Traders must be able to adapt the strategy to changing market conditions and constantly monitor key variables to make informed decisions. Risks and Challenges: As with any trading strategy, it is crucial to understand the potential risks and challenges associated with the "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" strategy. Market volatility, sudden changes in economic conditions, and other factors can influence outcomes. Conclusions: The "Choch Entry & Liquidity Model" trading strategy represents an intriguing approach that combines targeted entry with careful liquidity management. Its effectiveness depends on the trader's proficiency in consistently and flexibly applying key principles, adapting them to the changing dynamics of the market.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
XAUUSD Waiting the level 2065 to go short!Gold prices continue to rise for the third consecutive day on Monday, reaching around $2,055 per troy ounce. The upward movement is attributed to the risk aversion stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Immediate resistance is observed at the January 5 high of $2,060, with static resistance at $2,080 to be tested if surpassed. Sustained upbeat momentum may lead to a retest of the $2,100 barrier. However, if Gold encounters sellers at higher levels, triggering a pullback, the initial contention point becomes the 21-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,046. A daily closing below this level is crucial to negate the renewed uptrend. Gold is capitalizing on persistent uncertainty in the market, with investors digesting recent fundamental developments at the start of the week on Monday. The US Dollar is fluctuating in a light market due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. On Friday, the US Dollar slipped after an unexpected decrease in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US in December, increasing bets on a Fed rate cut in March and dragging down US Treasury bond yields. Market pricing now indicates a 78% probability that the US central bank will start cutting rates in March, up from 68% the previous week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. The main focus this week remains on Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s speech, US Retail Sales data, and Chinese quarterly GDP numbers. Best regards and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
BTC/USD pullback expected, now heading towards 200K!Analyzing the BTC/USD scenario reveals an expansion of the bearish phase with a test of support at 40,980. The initial resistance is at 45,465, but expectations suggest the possibility of an extension of the negative trend towards new lows at 39,485. From a daily volatility perspective, the cryptocurrency shows a value of 2.79%, with a weekly performance registering at -3.16%. The reasons behind Bitcoin's decline after the historic spot ETF approval are as follows: There was strong speculation leading up to the ETF approval; now that it's approved, there is less for people to speculate on. Many expected a surge to $55,000 after approval, and since that didn't happen, people are either taking profits or selling in disappointment. Bitcoin surged from $15,400 to $49,000 with FOMO elements related to the ETF, so a correction was naturally due. This could be a sell-the-news event for many who bought Bitcoin before it reached $20,000. Money is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum. People are selling BTC and buying ETH because they anticipate an ETH spot ETF is coming, and since ETH hasn't surged much, they are moving to an undervalued asset. Positive aspects that many people overlook: The Bitcoin ETF generated a total volume of $4.3 billion, a historic result for any ETF in history. Now that Bitcoin is available to all Wall Street traders, trillions will flow into the market over time. The Bitcoin ETF instills trust in cryptocurrencies. Personal opinion: The Bitcoin ETF will become increasingly popular on Wall Street, and we will see companies allocating billions to Bitcoin over time, easily propelling BTC to $100,000 - $200,000+. Following the SEC approval of the first Bitcoin ETFs, we observed a temporary dip in BTC's value, dropping to around $48,000 before recovering a significant portion of the weekly movement and slipping below the previous week's highs. Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market reflects a negative trend, with Ethereum standing out positively compared to other cryptocurrencies. Thanks to ETH's strength and BTC's weakness, the ETHBTC pair exhibits a +17% performance this week, approaching the technical price level of 0.06. BTC (49 weeks on the rise) TRX (7 weeks in decline) ETH (49 weeks in decline) DOGE (49 weeks in decline)
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
GBPUSD | Big pullback before the significant rally in 2024The analysis of GBP/USD reveals a dynamic interplay of factors influencing the currency pair. The British Pound (GBP) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD), recovering from a decline to 1.2700 and surpassing 1.2750. This recovery is linked to challenges the USD faces in generating demand during the American session, partly influenced by softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for December. Technically, GBP/USD maintains a bullish stance, staying above the lower limit of an ascending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, indicating positive momentum. Key resistance levels are at 1.2780, 1.2830, and 1.2860, while supports lie at 1.2750, 1.2710-1.2700, and 1.2670. The positive shift in market sentiment, along with UK GDP growth in November, supports GBP/USD. US inflation data, with a 3.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, initially boosted the USD, but skepticism remains about the Fed refraining from a rate cut in March. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut. The broader economic context, including inflation trends, central bank expectations, and global market sentiment, will continue to shape the GBP/USD exchange rate. This was a brief overview of the GBP/USD landscape; I'll now turn to the chart for my personal expectations and explanation. Greetings and a good weekend to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
US100 - LONG OPPORTUNITY / BREAKOUT 🚀💰CAPITALCOM:US100 - LONG OPPORTUNITY / BREAKOUT Fundamental: Nasdaq is currently up leading into earnings. Expecting continued growth and a lower PPI data result which will benefit the continued growth of the Nasdaq. Technical Analysis: Market is currently ranging/consolidating on the shorter timeframe until PPI data drops. This is expected on big new releases. Trend: Market is currently on a continued up-trend looking to make higher highs. Only long trades are valid. Strategy: Waiting for PPI data to drop before entering for breakout trade on the 3/5 minute timeframe to the long side. Stop loss just below previous low within the range. Risking 1% of the account size. Let me know if you agree and what your expectations are for the day. 🚀💰
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ryan-L
EURUSD | Level 1.1. strategy approach!Analysis of the EUR/USD Situation: Current Situation and Support/Resistance Levels: EUR/USD remains in a positive position, below the 1.1000 threshold. Key support and resistance levels to consider are: Support: If EUR/USD falls below the 2024 low of 1.0876, it could approach the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0846. Breaking this level might lead to the December 2023 lows at 1.0723, followed by the October 2023 weekly and yearly lows at 1.0495 and 1.0448, and finally the psychological level of 1.0400. Resistance: A breakout from the short-term consolidation could reach the recent high area at 1.0998 and, if surpassed, might indicate a move towards 1.1139. Technical Indicators: The MACD is showing signs of recovery, indicating a potential short-term rebound. The RSI has risen above 53, suggesting some bullish momentum. Influence of the US Dollar and Fed Policy: Higher-than-expected US CPI in December 2023 strengthened the dollar, leading investors to revise expectations of Fed rate cuts in Q2. Comments from Fed's L. Mester highlight that rate cuts are not being considered yet and further evidence of economic progress is needed. She emphasized the importance of a consistent decrease in inflation before considering possible rate cuts. Relevant Economic Data: No data releases in the domestic calendar and a rise in US headline CPI by 3.4% year-to-year to December, and 3.9% from the previous year for Core CPI. Initial weekly claims increased to 202K in the week ending January 6. Outlook: The optimistic outlook for the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain unchanged as long as it stays above the 200-day SMA. However, economic data and Fed policy will continue to significantly influence the pair, especially considering market caution and anticipation of further data and ECB and Fed speeches. In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair is in a delicate phase, with clear support and resistance levels to monitor. Fed policy and economic data will play a crucial role in determining the direction of the exchange rate. Personally, I predict a price rebound in the support zone with an NFP spike, a neutral week in conclusion, and a price outlook in the 1.111 area for next week. Greetings from Nicola and best wishes for successful trading to everyone.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL long: Market dynamics and Future outlookThe analysis of the US oil market (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) presents an intriguing scenario. Currently, the WTI price is recovering from recent losses, trading around $72.33 per barrel. This rise in oil prices is driven by concerns about potential supply disruptions following recent events, where Yemen's Houthis have questioned the UN resolution on Red Sea navigation. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD pair has fallen close to 1.3360, failing to stay above the crucial resistance of 1.3400. The Canadian dollar continues to struggle as the demand for safe-haven assets decreases due to an improved risk appetite among market participants. In the oil sector, prices are showing a moderate recovery as tensions in the Middle East deepen. Attacks on commercial oil tankers passing through the Red Sea are causing shipment delays and supply shortages. It is noteworthy that Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the United States, and higher oil prices support the Canadian dollar. My forecast, also backed by the rally of the USD/CAD pair, is for a long entry at the December low. Following the five-year seasonal trend, the pair should start rising from January until March. I will continue to provide updates on this position. Greetings from Nicola.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDCAD| Bearish sentiment awaiting the CPI!The USD/CAD pair is facing selling pressure for the second consecutive day, moving away from a near four-week high around the 1.3415 region, reached on Tuesday. Currently, spot prices are hovering around the 1.3365-1.3360 area, down just over 0.10% for the day. Traders are now awaiting the latest US consumer inflation figures for further momentum. The upcoming US CPI report is set to influence the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy decisions, subsequently impacting the demand for US dollars (USD) and providing a new direction for the USD/CAD pair. Amidst the anticipation of key US data, the dollar continues its consolidative price movement, confined within a one-week trading range due to uncertainty about when the US central bank will start reducing interest rates. Meanwhile, an increase in Crude Oil prices is supporting the commodity-linked Loonie, adding to the selling pressure on the USD/CAD pair. However, any significant rise in oil prices seems elusive due to the bearish fundamental backdrop. The EIA report on Wednesday revealed an unexpected weekly build in US inventories, heightening concerns that global oil consumption will slow in 2024. Additionally, diminishing prospects for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which supports high US Treasury bond yields, favor USD bulls and help limit losses for the USD/CAD pair. Therefore, I expect a drop to the 1.3232 area with a long rebound around 1.35. Wishing everyone good trading, greetings from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GOLD| Time to evaluate a short entry!Analyzing XAU/USD, we can outline a detailed picture of the current situation and future prospects: Current Situation: Gold is struggling to make a decisive move in any specific direction mid-week. After rising above $2,030, gold lost momentum and retreated towards $2,020. The markets are awaiting the outcome of the 10-year US Treasury note auction. Macro Factors and Upcoming Events: A sparse macroeconomic calendar and upcoming top-tier events are keeping investors in cautious mode. Wall Street opened positively, attempting to reverse some of its recent losses, but trading remains uneventful. Influence of US Inflation Data: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, set to be released on Thursday, could significantly impact gold prices. An annual CPI increase of 3.2% is expected, slightly higher than the previous 3.1%, but the core CPI increase is expected to decline. Market Expectations Regarding the Fed: Market participants are betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start cutting rates as early as March. This expectation is due to decreasing inflationary pressures, despite recent data showing a tight labor market. Recent Price Dynamics: Gold price (XAU/USD) saw a pause in its recovery on Wednesday, with investors focusing on US inflation data. The gold price recovery is expected to be short-lived due to investor confidence that the Fed will begin rate cuts starting in March. Technical Analysis: Gold price is aiming for stability above $2,030. It found intermediate support after correcting more than 3% from the high of December 28, 2023, around $2,090. Short-term demand for gold is no longer bullish, with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,038 acting as a strong barrier. The broader trend remains bullish, with the 50- and 200-day EMAs sloping upwards. Further downside may occur if gold falls below the three-week low around $2,016. External Factors and Future Indications: The 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped to near 4.04% in anticipation of inflation data. The options market is showing signs of hedging against a negative outcome. Remarks by the President of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, could further influence gold prices. Conclusion: Currently, gold prices are influenced by a combination of expectations about the Fed's interest rates, US inflation data, and market sentiment. The future direction of the price will likely be determined by upcoming inflation data and Fed policies. My personal expectation is the 62% Fibonacci level at 1966.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD Expected to Decline in JanuaryEconomic and Political Context: Market Sentiment: The GBP/USD exhibits a positive trend above 1.2700 during Wednesday's European session, bolstered by an improvement in market sentiment and renewed weakness in the US Dollar. Influence of Bank of England (BoE) Policy: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to defend the decision to tighten policy to combat inflation. If he leaves the door open for further rate hikes, this could strengthen the pound, pushing GBP/USD upwards. Geopolitical Situation: Concerns over a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices and inflation could drive flows towards safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar. Technical Factors: Daily Chart Technical Analysis: The GBP/USD price shows a potential supply zone around the 1.2880 level. This could be a key point for a possible change in direction, where a short position might be considered. Price Target: A potential target for a short position might be around the 1.2550 level, aligning with a bounce from the bullish trend line. Recent Trend: The pair broke a four-day winning streak on Tuesday, suggesting caution among investors. Other Relevant Factors: 10-Year US Treasury Note Auction: The auction results could affect the yield of US Treasury notes and, consequently, the value of the US Dollar. A high yield could strengthen the dollar, while a lower-than-expected yield could weaken it. Conclusion and Trading Strategy: The combination of these factors suggests a cautious yet attentive approach to trading opportunities. Bailey's testimony and the US Treasury note auction are key events to monitor, as they could significantly influence the direction of GBP/USD. My prediction involves entering a short position near the 1.2880 level with a target around 1.2550, and tomorrow's American CPI data will be of vital importance and impact.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
EURUSD| Will the level 1.11 be the next high?Current Trading Range: The EUR/USD pair has been traded within a narrow range, roughly between 1.0930 and 1.0925. This suggests a consolidation phase following recent movements. Impact of Upcoming CPI Data: The market is anticipating the forthcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Scheduled for release on Thursday, these figures might significantly influence the pair, potentially breaking the current trading range. Recent Price Movements: Initially, the pair exhibited a slight upward trend earlier this week but retreated to around the 1.0900 level. This level seems to be providing support, partly due to what has been termed 'Turnaround Tuesday'. USD Strength and Safe Haven Appeal: The USD Index (DXY) has reached new two-day highs near 102.70, propelled by investors turning to safe-haven assets. This shift is partially attributed to caution ahead of the U.S. inflation data and consumer sentiment reports. Influence of Bond Yields: The unclear direction in U.S. yields across different timelines, along with the rise in German 10-year bund yields to around 2.20%, are also affecting EUR/USD dynamics. Central Bank Policies: The differing approaches of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) regarding interest rate adjustments are crucial. The Fed has been more proactive, whereas the ECB maintains a more subdued approach, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year. Macro-Economic Factors: Disappointing industrial production figures from Germany have fostered a bearish sentiment for the Euro. However, an improvement in the unemployment rate across the broader Eurozone has provided some relief. Technical Analysis: The EUR/USD pair is consolidating near 1.0930. Resistance is anticipated at 1.0950, followed by the psychological barrier at 1.1000. A break above 1.1000 could lead the pair to retest the previous week’s high at 1.1038. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling below 50 indicates bearish momentum. In summary, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a consolidation stage, influenced by the expectations of key economic data releases, central bank policies, and macroeconomic factors. Technical indicators point to a bearish momentum, but upcoming data could potentially lead to significant movements. I have highlighted a possible bullish scenario with a target of 1.11. Currently, the price is above the support zone and is consolidating. Without significant macro data, the price showed little movement in Tuesday's session. I will share further updates if I develop additional thoughts on EUR/USD. Best wishes and happy trading to everyone, from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy