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USOIL| Level 74$ will be decisive!Analyzing the oil market, we see that WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is priced around $72.55 per barrel, while Brent is at $77.71 per barrel. Several key factors are influencing the current oil market scenario. Saudi Price Reduction: Saudi Arabia's decision to lower the prices of its oil exports to Asia has contributed to a bounce back in prices from the Monday low of $70. This move might increase the competitiveness of Saudi oil in the Asian market, thus impacting the global market. Decline in Inflation and Oil Demand: The fall in oil prices is welcomed by analysts and fund managers as it could lead to a further decrease in inflation. Stock Market Dynamics and DXY Index: The steady state of the US Dollar Index (DXY) around 102.00, despite some selling pressures, and the strengthening of US and Japanese stock markets, indicate investor confidence, which could positively affect the oil market. Geopolitical Tensions: Despite geopolitical tensions, such as the recent elections in Taiwan and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, markets seem to be overlooking these risks, which could keep the oil market stable in the short term. Russian Compliance with OPEC+ Cuts: Russia is adhering to the production cuts agreed upon in the last OPEC+ meeting, helping to balance the market supply. Speculations and Realpolitik: Rumors that shipping companies paid fees to Houthi rebels for safe passage in the Red Sea, though denied, demonstrate the market's sensitivity to such news. US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Israel could have implications for the security of maritime passages and, consequently, the oil market. US CPI Expectations: With the upcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), a further decrease in oil prices could be expected, potentially stimulating demand. Technical Analysis: The $74 level is pivotal for WTI; we might see a bullish breakout towards $80 or a pullback towards $71. Happy trading to everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
Master Candlesticks: The key trading success!Here's an analysis of various candlestick patterns commonly used in technical analysis of financial markets: Dragonfly Doji: This candlestick has a small body with a long lower shadow and no upper shadow, indicating significant price exploration lower but closing near the opening price. It is often interpreted as a signal of a potential bullish reversal. Morning Star: A bullish reversal pattern that forms in a downtrend. It consists of three candles: a long bearish candle, followed by a shorter candle signifying uncertainty, and a third long bullish candle. Doji: The Doji is a candle with a very small body, indicating that the opening and closing prices are nearly equal. This pattern reflects market indecision. Three Bullish Candles: This pattern consists of three consecutive bullish candles, often interpreted as a strong bullish signal, especially if it occurs after a downtrend. Three Bearish Candles: Opposite to the Three Bullish Candles, this pattern shows three consecutive bearish candles and can indicate a strong bearish signal. Bullish Engulfing: A two-candle pattern where a bullish candle follows and completely "engulfs" the body of the preceding bearish candle. It indicates a potential trend reversal to the upside. Hammer: This candle has a small body and a long lower shadow, indicating that the market has rejected lower prices. It's considered a bullish reversal signal. Gravestone Doji: Similar to the Dragonfly but with a long upper shadow and no lower shadow, suggesting that prices rose but were then rejected, often interpreted as a bearish reversal signal. Hanging Man: This candle resembles a Hammer but occurs at the top of an uptrend, suggesting that bearish pressure is starting to emerge. Morning Doji Star: A variation of the Morning Star, where the middle candle is a Doji. This pattern further strengthens the indication of a potential bullish reversal. Each of these candle formations provides valuable insights into market sentiments and potential trend reversals. However, it's important to use them in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis for greater reliability. Have a nice trading day.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
Gold price recovers further from multi-week low, upside potentiaTechnical Analysis: Gold price might struggle to capitalize on the modest intraday positive move From a technical perspective, any subsequent move up is likely to confront some resistance near the $2,040 horizontal zone, above which the Gold price could aim to retest Friday's swing high, around the $2,063-2,064 region. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $2,077 area, which if cleared decisively will negate any near-term negative outlook and allow bulls to reclaim the $2,100 round figure. On the flip side, the overnight swing low, around the $2,017-2016 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near the $2,012-2,011 area. This is followed by the $2,000 psychological mark, below which the Gold price could accelerate the slide towards the $1,988-1,986 intermediate support en route to the December low, around the $1,973 area and the $1,962 confluence, comprising the 100- and the 200-day SMAs •Gold price attracts some buyers on Tuesday and draws support from a weaker US Dollar. •A fall in consumer inflation expectations boosts Fed rate-cut bets and undermines the buck. •Elevated US bond yields and a positive risk tone cap gains ahead of the US CPI on Thursday. Gold price (XAU/USD) gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves away from a near three-week low, around the $2,017-2,016 region touched the previous day. A fall in US Consumer Inflation Expectations boosts market bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates as early as March. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive for the second successive day and turns out to be a key factor benefitting the non-yielding yellow metal. Investors, however, have been scaling back their expectations for a more aggressive Fed policy easing in the wake of hopes for a soft landing for the US economy, bolstered by a still-resilient labor market. Adding to this, the recent hawkish remarks by several Fed officials have raised uncertainty about the possibility of early interest rate cuts, which remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This should help limit losses for the USD and cap any further gains for the Gold price. Apart from this, a positive trading sentiment around the Asian equity markets might further contribute to keeping a lid on the safe-haven XAU/USD. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures on Thursday for cues about the Fed's future policy decision. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the Gold price. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from Fed easing bets, modest USD weakness •The New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Monday that US consumers' projection of inflation over the short run fell to the lowest level in nearly three years in December, which undermines the US Dollar and benefits the Gold price. •Inflation one year from now is expected to be at 3%, marking the lowest reading since January 2021, while inflation three years from now is seen at 2.6% and price pressures five years ahead were at 2.5% versus 2.7% in November. •The data reaffirms expectations for an imminent shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance, though investors continue scaling back their expectations for more aggressive policy easing in the wake of a still-resilient US economy. •Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that inflation has declined more than expected and that the US central bank still needs to give tight policy time to work on cooling off inflation. Bostic sees two 25 bps cuts by year-end 2024. •Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that the current policy stance appears sufficiently restrictive and that inflation could fall further with the policy rate held steady for some time, though the upside inflation risks remain. •This raises uncertainty over the possibility of early interest rate cuts by the Fed, which assist the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady above the 4.0% threshold and might cap the non-yielding yellow metal. •The market focus, meanwhile, remains glued to the US consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which should help determine the next leg of a directional move for the XAU/USD.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by sniper_2022
USDJPY| Breakout of a bullish channel with a target at 141.80Analyzing the USD/JPY pair, I observe that it is consolidating losses below the 144.00 level. The Japanese Yen (JPY) has gained traction following softer-than-expected Tokyo inflation data, strengthening expectations of a more hawkish approach by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and widening the monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). U.S. economic data indicates a still-resilient economy, dampening hopes for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. This supports high U.S. Treasury bond yields, benefiting the dollar. However, USD bulls seem hesitant to place aggressive bets, preferring to wait for Thursday's consumer inflation data. The Yen continues to attract buying for the second consecutive day after inflation in Tokyo remained above BoJ's 2% target. This could lead the BoJ to scale back its massive stimulus later this year, strengthening the JPY. On the other hand, the USD is weakened by expectations of a Fed rate cut in March, bolstered by a drop in U.S. consumer inflation expectations. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair has dropped below the mid-143.00s during the Asian session. Post-earthquake government stimulus measures in Japan might have delayed BoJ's shift from its ultra-accommodative stance. This, along with a positive tone around Asian equity markets, could limit any significant appreciation of the JPY as a safe haven. Investors have also scaled back expectations for more aggressive Fed policy easing, given the resilience of the U.S. economy. Recent hawkish remarks by Fed officials support high U.S. bond yields, favoring the dollar and limiting the downside for the USD/JPY pair. The upcoming U.S. CPI report might provide clarity on the timing of the Fed's potential policy easing, influencing the dollar's dynamics and determining the short-term trajectory of the USD/JPY pair. I expect a rise in the next few hours, with a rebound at the intersection of a new forming downtrend at H4 and the broken bullish channel during the Asian session, possibly leading to a short entry around 144.50 with a final target at 141.80. Let's see if the market confirms this personal view. Happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
BTC Trend Weekly w/ 9.86PF & 64%WR Backtest and some infoHello everyone, The strategy currently indicates a bullish trend on a 6-hour timeframe. Regarding the Backtest (1/1/2016 - Present, spanning 8 years): Profitability and Drawdown: The strategy exhibits a 64% success rate with a profit factor of 9.86, demonstrating robustness, as the profitable trades are, on average, nearly ten times larger than the losing ones. The maximum drawdown is recorded at 11.88% of the account, which is considered manageable within the realm of trading. *Each bet employs a consistent amount of capital. * Should there be an opportunity to enhance the strategy, I reserve the right to do so and will provide updates on the portfolio accordingly. Liquidation Status: Integrating this backtest data with the recent clearance of bearish positions, alongside significant bullish bets at the levels of 46,470 (150 million), 44,518 (230 million), and 41,865 (810 million), we can deduce a robust bullish sentiment within the market. The liquidation of bearish positions suggests that short-term negative wagers against Bitcoin have been ousted, potentially due to unforeseen bullish momentum or favorable news. The specified levels at which substantial bullish investments have been made are likely to serve as key support zones. The substantial trade volume at these price points is indicative of strong market confidence. Nonetheless, the advisory to "sell the news" implies that the current uptrend may be subject to correction should the recent developments fail to sustain the rally's momentum. As a trader or investor, one should: Monitor the Support Levels: The mentioned price points of 46,470; 44,518; and 41,865 should be closely watched for any signs of price stabilization or reversal patterns. Set Clear Targets and Stops for your big position: To manage risk effectively, set a clear profit target and stop-loss level before entering a trade.
by PresentTrading
USDCAD| Bullish channel with target at 1.3480 USDCAD Analysis Canadian Dollar Weakness: The CAD is facing downward pressure against major currencies, primarily due to the decline in the crude oil market. This is a significant factor, as the Canadian economy is closely linked to oil prices. Impact of Economic Data: Upcoming Canadian data releases, such as the International Merchandise Trade Balance and Building Permits, are expected to show declining figures. A decrease in the Trade Balance and a slight drop in Building Permits are anticipated. These data could further influence the strength of the CAD. Oil Market Dynamics: With Saudi Arabia reducing prices for Asian partners and the continuous production cuts by OPEC being offset by reduced demand, particularly from China, there is a direct impact on the Canadian economy. Additionally, high US Crude Oil production challenges the expected global undersupply. US Economic Indicators: The recent US Nonfarm Payrolls report and the expectations for the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) are also influencing the pair. Strong US employment data and the slightly anticipated increase in CPI could support the USD, suggesting a less likely scenario of immediate Fed rate cuts. USD/CAD Pair Movement: Despite these factors, the USD/CAD pair has shown limited movement, staying within the previous trading range and displaying a slight upward trend in the Asian session. It remains above the mid-1.3300s, indicating a potential continuation of its recent recovery from a low.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
XAUUSD: Bearish channel with target at 2010!Gold (XAU/USD) has been subject to a blend of economic indicators and policy projections. After dipping to a several-week low at $2,017, gold regained momentum, surpassing $2,030. This rebound was bolstered by a drop in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds below 4%. As a result, XAU/USD successfully mitigated a substantial part of its daily losses. Various factors contributed to this volatility: US Dollar and Economic Data: The US Dollar experienced slight pressure due to mixed US data and the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Despite indications of potential rate cuts in 2024, the precise timing is still unclear. Labor Market Indicators: The ADP survey revealed stronger-than-expected private job growth, aligning with pre-pandemic hiring patterns and suggesting stability. The significant December US jobs report also pointed to a resilient labor market, adding 216K new jobs compared to the anticipated 170K, while maintaining an unemployment rate of 3.7%. Factory Orders and Service Sector: US Factory Orders in November unexpectedly rose, reflecting economic strength. However, the service sector, a substantial part of the US economy, slumped, with the ISM's Non-Manufacturing Index falling to its lowest point since May. Federal Reserve's Stance: Federal Reserve officials have stressed the need to maintain stringent financial conditions to prevent inflation resurgence. The market is predicting a possible rate cut at the March meeting and a total of five 25 basis points rate cuts for 2024. Global Tensions and Economic Concerns: Issues like China's economic struggles and Middle East tensions might drive investors towards the safety of gold. Nonetheless, high US bond yields, bolstering the US Dollar, continue to suppress the gold price. Technical Outlook: Technically, gold prices are nearing recent lows. Critical support is identified near $2,030, with potential further decline towards the $2,000 mark. In contrast, resistance is situated around $2,050, extending towards the $2,077 zone. Forecast: My expectation for the start of this week is bearish, and I anticipate a rebound to the 2035-2040 level (a bounce that might have already occurred with the H4 candle), after which I will consider a short position with a target of 2010. Should conditions change, I will reassess accordingly and provide new updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
USDJPY: Next step short towards 143!As a trader monitoring the recent movements of the USD/JPY currency pair, I've observed several key factors affecting its dynamics: Japanese Yen Weakness: The Yen has shown a consistent decline against the US Dollar, reaching a three-week low. This trend reflects reduced expectations for a hawkish policy shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in January. The absence of aggressive policy changes from the BoJ has contributed to the Yen's weakness. US Dollar Strength: The US Dollar has gained strength, partly due to diminished expectations of aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve. This shift has propelled the USD/JPY pair beyond the 145.00 threshold. Technical Analysis: From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair shows potential for further gains. It has surpassed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its recent downturn. With daily chart oscillators gaining positive momentum, a move beyond the 145.00 level could lead to further gains, potentially towards the 145.50 or even the 146.00 mark. Support and Resistance Levels: On the downside, the pair seems to have decent support before the 144.00 mark. However, a break below this level could lead to technical selling, exposing the 200-day Simple Moving Average around 143.25-143.20, which is a critical pivot point for future movements. Impact of External Events: An earthquake in Japan on New Year’s Day has made it more challenging for the BoJ to abolish negative interest rates. This event has indirectly affected the Yen. Additionally, the performance of US Treasury yields, influenced by Federal Reserve policies, is playing a role in supporting the USD. Future BoJ Policies: Although there's speculation that the BoJ might shift from ultra-loose monetary policies later in 2024, possibly after annual wage negotiations in March, this remains uncertain. Such a shift could positively impact the Yen. Influence of Equity Markets and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Report: The tone of the equity markets and the upcoming US monthly jobs data (NFP) could provide further direction. The NFP report is particularly significant as it might offer clues on the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's interest rates, which will affect the dynamics of the USD. Forecast: The price is currently at the 144.62 level, and I expect a descent to the 143.20 and 142.80 areas, where the price might rotate before further rises. On the chart, I have highlighted my expectation with some technical elucidation. Wishing everyone a good evening and a great start to the week, regards from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
Polygon|The possibility of a BEARISH trendHello guys, I hope my analysis was useful for you. This is my overview of Matic, check it out if you like. Last week we expected more growth from the support zone, which invalidated our target areas with a strong bearish lag. Now the upward trend that came in the form of a channel is placed on a support area. I expect that with the breaking of this downward channel and the stabilization of the price below the support area, Metic will enter a downward trend, which will first experience the support area of 0.62 and then continue its decline until the price of 0.52. .
MShort
by Golden_Star1994
XAUUSD Last rally of the year before the crash!The analysis gold price (XAU/USD) highlights several key factors influencing its market behavior. I will examine each element and assess its impact: Gold Price Movement: The gold price has increased, reaching a daily high above $2,060. This rise indicates strong investor interest, often triggered by economic uncertainty or the search for safe-haven assets. 10-year US Treasury Yield: There has been a significant decrease in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, falling below 4%. Bond yields move inversely to prices; a decrease in yield indicates an increase in demand for safe bonds, which often translates into a rise in the gold price. Mixed Macroeconomic Data from the US: The varied economic data from the US have fueled the gold rally. Uncertain or weak data tend to push investors towards the safety of gold. Situation of the US Dollar and the Federal Reserve (Fed): The US dollar has been under mild pressure, influenced by mixed data and the minutes from the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). The Fed has considered rate cuts but has not provided precise timing indications. This uncertainty can fuel volatility and the desire for safe assets like gold. ADP Report and Labor Market: The ADP report indicated a higher-than-expected private job creation, suggesting a robust labor market "aligned with pre-pandemic hiring." A strong labor market can indicate a healthy economy but also potential inflationary pressures, influencing the Fed's interest rate decisions and, indirectly, the gold price. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Report: The NFP report is awaited, which is expected to reveal the addition of 170K new jobs in September. These data are crucial to understand the health of the economy and future monetary policies, consequently influencing the gold price. Forecast: Currently, gold stands at 2045, a critical support/resistance level. I have identified two possible scenarios: the first anticipates a breakout of the bearish trendline with a retest on the breakout point followed by a rise to about 2085, while the second scenario suggests a decline towards the 1990 area. At the moment, I am leaning towards a further rise before a significant drop, so I will assess at the beginning of the week if there are conditions to go long on the market. Greetings and a good weekend to everyone from Nicola.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
RELIANCE : What all possibilities from here?www.tradingview.com RELIANCE: As per technical evaluation, it is near its 52W high price. However, if we could see historically, it was in a range of 2000 - 2600 for a long time now. We can see, it has made triple top as well as rising wedge, but do not forget, there is a cup being formed inside and we should not forget. A good time to enter in investment will be above the boundary of 2650 level. The target will be 2884 and 3294. If it reverts from here, it can come to 2300 range first and then 2100 range.
NSE:RELIANCE
by Stox_Ware
USOIL: Route map 71.50-79 awaiting the FED!Observing the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), I notice an upward trend, with the price having retested the bullish trendline after breaking through the $74 level. Now, I expect a slight pullback towards $71.50 before a significant rebound towards $79 per barrel. However, from a macroeconomic perspective, I've also detected growing concerns about the stability of demand due to an increase in U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories, leading to a decrease in prices. I am particularly mindful of the impact of Middle East tensions on energy markets. These conflicts directly influence logistics and shipping, so much so that I've observed companies diverting their ships from the Suez Canal route to avoid waters infested with Houthi rebels, significantly changing commercial routes between Europe and Asia. The arrival of an Iranian warship further complicates the situation. Additionally, I am monitoring the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, aware of the risk that it might involve neighboring countries. I've noticed that Iran has suspended crude shipments to China to secure higher prices. This move is particularly interesting as it follows China's advance purchase of a significant portion of its annual oil demand, enjoying a discount on imports from sanction-hit Iran. In conclusion, my personal analysis describes a complex WTI oil market influenced by a variety of geopolitical and technical factors. I am closely monitoring how Middle East tensions, Iran's strategies, and technical indicators affect the direction of WTI prices. Best regards and have a great weekend, from Nicola.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
EURUSD: A decision turning point post NFP!Analyzing the EUR/USD situation, we can observe a series of dynamic factors that have recently influenced its behavior. The EUR/USD's bullish move, having crossed 1.0950, was triggered by disappointing ISM Services PMI data after gathering liquidity below 1.09 following the NFP data. Currently, the pair maintains a defensive stance, trading in negative territory below 1.0950 as market attention shifts to the December jobs report from the U.S. Initially, the positive risk mood made it difficult for the USD to find demand on Thursday morning. However, after the ADP Employment Change data for December exceeded expectations, rising to 164,000 versus the forecast of 115,000, the yield on the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond surpassed 4%, thereby supporting the USD in limiting its losses. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that markets are pricing in a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in March, down from the 85% seen earlier in the week. In conclusion, EUR/USD is at a really interesting point, at the 1.0950 level and is about to close the daily candle with a neutral doji. I expect a rise from the Euro on Monday in the face of an approaching American recession, aiming for a rebound of the Euro towards the 1.1150 area as identified on the chart. Best wishes and have a great weekend from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBP/USD Route map 1.26-1.28 post NFPAnalyzing the GBP/USD pair, I observe that the British Pound is under pressure, trading around 1.2670 against the US Dollar during Friday's European session. This movement is primarily driven by investors' growing focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls data. While the UK manufacturing sector continues to face pressures, it's noteworthy that the services sector exceeded expectations in December, according to PMI data. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is recovering swiftly, bolstered by positive data from the US. This rebound further pressures the Pound, which is already struggling to find solid ground. Investors are concerned as the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers face tough decisions, balancing the risks of a deep recession in the UK economy and high underlying inflation. The likelihood of a technical recession in the UK is high, with the economy contracting in the third quarter and anticipated to show stagnant performance in the final quarter. Moreover, recent PMI data indicates that the manufacturing sector continues to suffer due to high-interest rates. The future of the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the US Nonfarm Payrolls data for December. Should this data indicate further cooling of the US job market, the outlook for the pair might improve. The expectation for job additions in December is moderate, with forecasted slower growth in average hourly earnings, which could signal a deceleration in US inflation. Investors are also increasing bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March if labor market conditions soften more than expected. However, a premature rate cut decision by the BoE to avoid a recession could fuel further inflationary pressures in the UK. On the chart, I've highlighted a possible price direction post-NFP; the price could take liquidity below 1.26 before moving towards 1.28. Best wishes and good trading to all.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
DXY (US DOLLAR INDEX)Hello traders! The dollar index (DXY) in the 15m timeframe is in the (RISING WEDGE) pattern. Wait for the line break to confirm the scheme. The price retests the level of 101,750 and then the complete completion of the scheme begins. Rising to the level of 102.470. Be patient and wait for the breakout to enter the trade. Be careful! Don`t forget to look at the economic calendar! MAKE MONEY AND ENJOY LIFE 💰 THANK YOU! GOOD LUCK! 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by THP-Forex-Academy