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$BTCUSD Retraction Point Approaching The BITSTAMP:BTCUSD pair is nearing a crucial resistance level at $46,177, signaling potential price retraction. Our indicator ( w.aritas.io ) suggest a gradual exhaustion of bullish momentum, with increased short positions. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the overbought (OB) zone, indicating a potential reversal. Caution is advised, and a retracement to around $39,375 is anticipated. Traders should closely monitor these levels for potential trend changes.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by wikitrades
10 Rules for Successful Trading1. Study. Learn how financial markets work. Years ago I took Khan Academy's free courses on the financial markets. It really helped reinforce what I already knew, taught me new stuff and solidified my confidence in understanding how the financial markets work. Here's the link: www.khanacademy.org Learn the basics of Technical Analysis. For this part I read "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John Murphy. I read the whole book not once, but twice, and I constantly refer to it to refresh my memory. You can also get the supplemental workbook to do exercises and test your proficiency. Link: www.amazon.com Learn the basics of Macroeconomics and Microeconomics. Khan Academy also provides excellent free courses in this subject area with quizzes and tests to confirm your proficiency. This part is important for understanding the big picture. Link: www.khanacademy.org 2. Develop a trading plan. Write out your trading plan step-by-step and follow it every time. If you don't do this, you won't be consistently profitable in the long term. Never trade on a whim, even if you fear missing out on a big move. I would rather miss out on a big move up because I took the time to develop a plan than jump in without a plan and experience a big move down. Here's a good resource for how to develop a trading plan: www.ig.com 3. Find a trading mentor. Find someone who is more experienced than you and learn from them. I was able to connect with a very experienced trader here on Trading View with whom I share watchlists and get trade ideas from. We chat regularly and confirm or critique each other's ideas. Having a trading mentor has been invaluable to my trading. It's important to find someone who is trustworthy and competent, and willing to critique your trading ideas. Often we as traders only see what we want to see in the chart and miss or ignore obvious clues that go against our theory. For example, what one person sees as a triple bottom (bullish) another person may see as a bear flag (bearish). Another way to learn from other traders is to subscribe to traders who post high-quality content on Youtube. I subscribe to a few great trading Youtubers who give me all kinds of insights. My trading has definitely improved because of learning from other traders. With this said, don't go overboard. Find just a couple of good people to follow. You don't want to follow dozens and dozens of traders as you will suffer from information overload. 4. Manage risk. Preserving your capital is necessary to stay in the game, so you need to manage risk. No matter how good your charting may be, some of your trades will go against you and will need to get out. That's why I always use stop losses and get out of a trade at a certain predetermined level. Stop losses always limit loss, but do not necessary limit profit. This in turn allows you to only be right half of the time (or in some cases even less) and still be profitable. The topic of stop losses actually warrants it own discussion. In the future, I will be writing a post on how to place your stop losses. Other risk management strategies include: limiting the amount of margin you use, only risking a certain percentage of your portfolio on any given trade, and diversifying your portfolio. A key difference between trading and investing is that investing does not (typically) employ stop losses. Long-term investors typically manage risk by using diversification. 5. Be humble. Check your ego at the door. It does not matter if you're right. The only thing that matters is your money. Never stay in a trade because you don't want to admit that you were wrong. I've seen plenty of charts that looked amazing and then a black swan event happens. Perhaps one of the best ways to think about it is to consider this paraphrased statement from the legendary trader Larry Williams: "Regardless of past performance, never forget that every new trade you make only has a 50% chance of success." I have seen some Trading View users who are completely consumed by pride and post their win rates and super high-profit percentages. I steer clear of these traders because they fail one major rule of good trading: staying humble. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. 6. Keep a journal. This one is very important. Whenever I learn something new about trading, I write it down in a trading notebook. Whenever I make a mistake, I write down what went wrong and what I learned from the mistake. My trading notebook contains my strategies both for bear markets and bull markets, contains the steps for my daily routine, contains my screener criteria, and contains a listing of all the important things I've picked up over the years of trading. 7. Track your assets. Employ some kind of a method for tracking your performance. Even though it's time-consuming, I use a spreadsheet. 8. Avoid speculation. Never trade based on speculation or emotion. Never buy or sell an asset because of fear (whether fear of a market crash or fear of missing out on a huge rally). Never enter into a position simply because you like the company, and similarly do not avoid selling your position because you love the company too much. The most successful traders are rigorously unemotional and unattached. In my opinion, I define anything that does not involve an analysis of data as speculation. I have also come to learn that by the time everyone is talking about something, it is usually at peak mania and will not go up further. For example, when your co-worker or close friend is talking about how much they made from Bitcoin, it's probably time to sell. Similarly, if you see everyone on social media posting photos of how much it costs to fill up their car with gas, it probably means we're at the peak of gas prices. 9. Learn how to use your charting platform. One of the best things I ever did to master my charting was to spend a few weeks doing nothing but just learning all the features on Trading View. When I first signed up for Trading View I was overwhelmed by all the tools, indicators, strategies, and ideas on here. So I knew I had to take a timeout from trading and just learn the tools first. For several weeks rather than focus on trading, I focused on learning Trading View. I favorited indicators that work best for my strategy, I created layouts and explored every nook and cranny on the platform. Trading View is incredibly powerful because it provides access to so much data. Having access to data is power. By taking the time to learn how to use all of its tools, I was able master the financial markets to a degree that I can now make predictions just good as those high-paid Wall Street analysts. Your subscription will pay for itself through the profits you make. 10. "Look first. Then leap." Always chart out your entry point, stop loss, and profit target before entering a trade. Ask yourself: How much risk am I willing to take for how much profit? Here's a great resource from Investopedia that inspired this post: www.investopedia.com This list of good trading rules is nowhere near comprehensive, so please leave a comment below to share your rules and tips for successful trading!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
132
GME GameStop Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold GME before the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GME GameStop prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 15usd strike price at the money Calls with an expiration date of 2024-1-19, for a premium of approximately $2.63. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:GMELong
by TopgOptions
HOW-TO apply an indicator that is only available upon request?Recently, I've realized that my typical day involves constant encounters with indicators. For example, when the alarm clock rings, it's an indicator that it's morning and time to get up. I am checking the phone and once again paying attention to the indicators: battery charge and network signal level. I figure out in just one second that such a complex element of the phone as the battery is 100% charged and the signal from the cell towers is good enough. Then I’m going out on a busy street, and it's only because of the traffic light indicator that I can safely cross the road to reach the parking lot. Looking at the on-board computer of my car, with its many indicators, I know that all the components of this complicated mechanism are working properly, and I can start driving. Now, imagine what would happen if none of this existed. I would have to act blindly, relying on luck: hoping that I would wake up on time, that the phone would work today, that car drivers would let me cross the road, and that my own car would not suddenly stop because it ran out of gas. We can say that indicators help to explain complex processes or phenomena in simple and understandable language. I think they will always be in demand in today's complex world, where we deal with a huge flow of information that cannot be perceived without simplifications. If we talk about the financial market, it's all about constant data, data, data. Add in the element of randomness and everything becomes totally messed up. To create indicators that simplify the analysis of financial information, the TradingView platform uses its own programming language — Pine Script . With this language, you can describe not only unique indicators, but also strategies — meaning algorithms for opening and closing positions. All these tools are grouped together under the term "script" . Just like a trade or educational idea, a script can also be published. After this, it will be available to other users. The published script can be: 1. Visible in the list of community scripts with unrestricted access. Simply find the script by its name and add it to the chart. 2. Visible in the list of community scripts, but access is by invitation only. You'll need to find the script by its name and request access from its author. 3. Not visible in the list of community scripts, but accessible via a link. To add such a script to a chart, you need to have the link. 4. Not visible in the list of community scripts; access is by invitation only. You'll need both a link to the script and permission for access obtained from its author. If you have added to your favorites a script that requires permission from the author, you'll only be able to start using the indicators after the author includes you in the script's user list. Without this, you will get an error message every time you add an indicator to the chart. In this case, contact the author to learn how to gain access. Instructions on how to contact the author are located after the script's description and highlighted within a frame. There you will also find the 'Add to favorite indicators' button. The access can be valid until a certain date or indefinitely. If the author has granted access, you will be able to add the script to the chart.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Be_Capy
EURUSD Is ready for the big bullish run towards 1.1050!On Thursday, EUR/USD faced a significant decline of almost a hundred pips, marking its worst day in months. The Euro weakened broadly, while the US Dollar showed a mixed performance due to softer inflation and a balanced labor market in the US. Daily chart indicators suggest a downside, though the overall trend remains upward, albeit with reduced momentum. A close above 1.1000 would indicate potential for more gains, while a drop below 1.0780 could shift the bias. On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD broke an uptrend line and is testing the 1.0890 support, with the next target at 1.0860. A break could focus on 1.0830, likely attracting buyers. Technical indicators lean negative, and the RSI approaches oversold levels, suggesting potential consolidation around 1.0900. To remove the short-term bearish bias, the Euro needs to rise above the 20-period SMA at 1.0960. The pair experienced its most significant decline in over a month, correcting from three-month highs above 1.1000, reaching a bottom at 1.0883, with a potential for short-term consolidation. Eurozone CPI rose 2.4% YoY in November, below October's 2.9%, marking the slowest annual increase since July 2021. Speculation arises about a potential ECB rate cut as inflation approaches the 2% target. The Euro lagged in the market for two consecutive days, especially against the Swiss Franc. Final Manufacturing PMI readings and a rebound in US Treasury yields supported the US Dollar despite mixed US data. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's target, while rising Continuing Jobless Claims indicated a softer labor market. On Friday, the release of US data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, is scheduled.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
4
BTC - Market Structure 101 📚 Keeping It SimpleHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📊 I find the BTC H1 chart interesting as it has been respecting the market structure cleanly inside the rising channel recently. 📈 As the price approaches the lower bound of the channel, the bulls are taking control for an impulse after breaking above the last high in blue and the 21 EMA. 📉 Conversely , as the price nears the upper bound of the channel, the bears take charge for a correction after breaking below the last low in green and the 21 EMA. Today, BTC rejected the upper bound and broke below the green low and 21 EMA, signaling that the bears are currently in control. 📉 The bears are expected to maintain control, and we anticipate a movement towards the lower bound of the channel. 📈 However , a shift in momentum could occur if the bulls regain control by breaking above the red channel and reaching 38,100. In such a scenario, we would anticipate a bullish continuation towards the upper bound of the rising channel. What are your thoughts? Do you believe BTC will continue to adhere to this simple market structure? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
EURUSD Ready for the big short towards 1.089The EUR/USD experienced a decline after four consecutive days of gains, stabilizing just below 1.1000, while the US Dollar seeks to recover. On Thursday, Eurozone inflation data could disappoint expectations downward, while the US will release the core PCE index and weekly jobless claims. A daily close well above 1.1010 could pave the way for further gains. A decisive break below 1.0960 would indicate further losses, with the next support at 1.0920, near an upward trendline. Key resistance is at 1.1000, while additional recent highs could lead to resistance at 1.1070. The inflation situation in Europe indicates a slowdown, with German and Spanish data falling below expectations. Overall, the positive trend of the ECB may be influenced by additional inflation data. The US economy showed stronger growth in the third quarter than previously estimated, bolstering the Dollar. On Thursday, US data on Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and weekly jobless claims could further influence the Dollar, especially if they highlight further slowing of inflation and the labor marke
Short
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
3
XAUUSD Is it time to go down? Target 2026!Gold Trend: The price of gold appears to be in an upward phase, testing $2,050 per troy ounce. This could be influenced by various factors, including expectations regarding inflation, the strength of the dollar, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Role of the Dollar: Although the US dollar is showing signs of recovery, it remains generally weak. Hopes for an end to the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve may be one of the factors contributing to this weakness. Federal Reserve Position: Statements from some regional bank presidents of the Federal Reserve indicate a divergence of opinions regarding the future path of monetary policy. While some are confident that inflation will remain under control, others are more cautious and do not rule out further interest rate hikes. Government Bond Yields: Yields on US government bonds are declining, indicating some caution or concern about the economy. The recent lows in yields may reflect a growing focus on safe-haven assets such as gold. Upcoming Key Events: Investors seem to be awaiting US inflation data, particularly the October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. A further decrease in inflationary pressure could positively impact the market and pose a threat to the demand for dollars.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
Gold Next Move ? (XAUUSD)Investors in Asia, meanwhile, took comments from erstwhile Federal Reserve hawk Christopher Waller as perhaps a signal of another era-shift, as he flagged that U.S. interest rates could be cut in the months ahead. A rally in bonds and slide in the dollar that has run for weeks in the afterglow of a benign U.S. inflation report extended in Asia in the wake of Waller's remarks. Two-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low just below 4.70%. Ten-year Treasury yields hit a two-month low of 4.28%. Interest rate futures price more than 100 basis points of cuts next year and a 40% chance they begin as soon a March. The dollar's slide led to multi-month highs for the yen, euro, sterling and Swiss franc against the greenback and sent spot gold, in dollars, to its highest since May.
TVC:GOLDShort
by ZumixFX
1
Gold approaching 2000 ahead of GDP!The price of gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on intraday gains, hovering around the $2,052 level and retracing from a peak touched last Wednesday, near seven months ago. Despite a modest rebound in the US dollar and a positive risk tone, the precious metal remains in positive territory for the fifth consecutive day. The Federal Reserve officials' recent less hawkish statements confirm the market's bets on monetary policy tightening starting from March 2024. The disappointing auction of US Treasury bonds has lowered yields, providing support for gold. Attention is now focused on the preliminary US GDP report and the core PCE price index, which will influence Fed policy expectations and guide the direction of the dollar and gold.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
84% PoP - Playing the Oil Prices with /MCL Futures $USO $CL I've decided to make a play on the oil prices and chose /MCL futures for this venture. The trade required a BP (buying power) of $600, with a maximum profit potential of 1.07cr. This sets up a favorable risk-reward ratio of 1:6. The IVR (Implied Volatility Rank) stands at 51, which is advantageous for the credit strategies I prefer. With a PoP (Probability of Profit) of 84%, the conditions seem ideal for the 34 days duration I've set for selling the 70 put leg. I opened an semi-bullish position with a put short on the January expiry /MCL futures. My expectation is that the oil prices will either not fall too rapidly or will actually rise. For future management of this position, I have two scenarios in mind: If the Oil Continues to Fall Strongly: In case the oil continues its strong downtrend, I plan to sell a call leg on top, transforming the position into a strangle from the current naked put. If the fall is steep, or I fear that the break-even point of $69 might be breached, I'll hedge my risk by purchasing a put around the 60 strike, turning it into a credit spread and wait for the 21 DTE (Days to Expiry). Stagnant or Slight Rebound in Oil Prices: If the oil price doesn't move much or rebounds slightly, I'll quickly close my position for a profit. The target? About 50% of the original credit received for writing the put, which amounts to roughly $50. This would mean a 10% return on my utilized capital, which I find quite satisfactory. In summary, this strategic move in oil futures trading is well-aligned with my risk appetite and trading preferences, providing a good balance between risk management and profit potential.
NYMEX:MCLF2024Long
by TanukiTrade
EURUSD Bullish channel with a breakout above 1.0950!During Monday's Asian session, the EUR/USD pair experienced modest declines, primarily due to renewed demand for US dollars. The rise of the EUR seems constrained due to current macroeconomic prospects. Currently, the pair is trading near 1.0935, with a 0.08% loss for the day. Economic data from Germany indicates an improvement in the German IFO business climate index in November, but this appears to have little significant impact on the euro's performance. A moderate expansion in private sector economic activity is anticipated in the United States for November, but disappointments in the data could affect the resilience of the US dollar (USD) in the American session. Additionally, the price is currently at 1.0950 after a false breakout on the daily chart. I expect a potential price retracement to two key levels, the first at 1.0850 and then at 1.0760, corresponding to the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, a breakout to the upside of the 1.0950 level on a daily chart could suggest an upward movement with the objective of reaching the June highs at 1.12. Wishing everyone a successful trading day. Greetings from Gaia.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
XAUUSD: 2014 will be the crucial level in view of the Fed!The price of gold has struggled to surpass $2,000, facing resistance around $2,010. Daily oscillators suggest potential buying opportunities around $1,989-1.988, with support levels at $1,979-1.978 and $1,965. A break below the latter could lead to levels around $1,940. On the other hand, a break above $2,000 could pave the way for $2,007 and $2,009-2,010, with positive prospects to reach $2,022 and $2,040. However, the current price fluctuates below $2,000, with investors cautious about the future direction, influenced by FOMC minutes and positive US data. Speculations about higher interest rates and US Treasury yields hinder gold. Despite expectations for the Fed to maintain stable rates, fears of a hike persist. Weak signals from stock markets support gold as a safe haven, but the situation remains uncertain. The US dollar is recovering, but traders anticipate stability or possible rate cuts in 2024. The economic context influences gold prospects, still on track for the second consecutive weekly gain, with attention turning to US PMIs for further indications. First, I expect a price increase to the 2014 level, where I've identified two possible scenarios: a breakout of the supply zone with a subsequent retest before moving towards the 2023 high. The second scenario involves a price increase to the 2014 level, followed by a pullback towards 1981, where I've identified a crucial daily chart support and resistance level. My overall view is bullish in the long term. Greetings from Gaia, and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
BTC to ValhallaQuantitatively speaking all of my systems aggregated are long. There will of course, be a lot volatility. Like any other normal crypto upwards trending market. Not providing and esoteric uber complex system on here since they are private. Now with that being said, a myriad of things are in the right direction for HTF investing and also if you had a good swing entry on the recent price action. As this continues to play out many small-cap coins have had their waves with their small glimmers of alpha, short-lived. Easy exits thought lol. In a macro sense, all TradeFi systems are long and most asset classes are max long, and yeah you can find out the quantitative backing yourself. The recent reduction in correlation between crypto and traditional markets, has seen a more strongly positive correlation in the past 21 days. Confusing the mind of the retail trader. There is still low sentiment on crypto in its entirety and moreso elicits the stage of disbelief. But, that does not matter in the slightest. Qualitative "Analysis" is boring anyway. Take your leverage off degen. GM GM GM
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BackQuant
LONG Strategy I Use With The Logical Trading Indicator V.1In this post I want to explain how I use the Logical Trading Indicator V.1 that I published as a community script here on TradingView. The following strategy is what I use on a daily basis with a number of different assets, primarily crypto and FOREX, but can work with just about any asset with a chart. This post is not specific to one particular timeframe, but I made the chart on the 1HR as that is the timeframe that the default settings were keyed in on. It is based on a LONG strategy. A SHORT trade would be just the opposite, which I will also make a post about as well. When I sit down to the charts, I set my alerts so the indicator tells me when to trade so that I can go about my day and make my moves with the alerts hit. This keeps me with a mechanical strategy that I can use to help keep my emotions out of the trade. Steps I take to prepare for a LONG trade: STEP 1: Set alert and watch for a bullish cross of the basis line. This indicates that the trend is changing and to be on the lookout for momentum change as well as the BUY signal. STEP 2: Set alert and watch for the next BUY signal. This happens when the price is above the basis line and the ATR meets the multiple set in the settings. So by default it is set to 2x multiple. So when the price jumps 2x the ATR figure, that means we are getting some serious bullish momentum and it is time to enter a long trade. STEP 3: Although this indicator works on a trailing stop loss strategy, it's always good risk management practices to set what I call an emergency stop loss. This protects your capital in-case everything just goes wrong. I set my emergency stop loss inside or just to the outside of the lower bollinger band range. This gives your trade room to move and go in the direction that it is indicating, but protects you incase the market turns quickly and you aren't paying attention. STEP 4: Set alert and watch for Take Profit signals. This happens when the price closes inside the upper bollinger band range, which also indicates an 'overbought' range similar to an RSI. The signal fires when the next candle closes below the band. This let's you know the momentum has changed and it could be a great time to take at least 50% or more of your position off the table. STEP 5: Set alert and watch for a bearish cross of the basis line. This indicates that the trend is starting to change and is when I usually close out the rest of the trade. STEP 6: You can set an alert to let you know when the SELL signal fires. This is the absolute LAST chance to get out in profit. This is the trailing stop loss signal that is built into the indicator. With my particular strategy, I am usually out of the trade at this point, but if I didn't get a chance to do anything when I got the bearish basic cross, I am definitely closing everything out when I see that SELL signal. This is also when you could be looking into flipping bearish and taking a SHORT trade, then it's just the opposite. I hope this helps answer some questions that people might have about how to use the Logical Trading Indicator V.1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by thelogicaldude
2
Option TradingOption Trading work based on a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy or sell a certain asset, at a predetermined price (strike price) within a certain time period. A very simple task, but is there a clear technical analysis method that can provide consecutive wins? This post is not trading advice, just a statistical hypothesis test. I will try in 100 candles, and stop if the win rate is below 70% If you are an options trader, or are interested in learning the system I use, please follow this post.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDEducation
by AzrulAzir
INTU Intuit Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't bought INTU ahead of the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of INTU Intuit prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 560usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-12-1, for a premium of approximately $11.50. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:INTUShort
by TopgOptions
ADSK Autodesk Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ADSK ahead of the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ADSK Autodesk prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-11-24, for a premium of approximately $4.00. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:ADSKShort
by TopgOptions
Deep dive into SmartBot strategy [Skyrex]Overview The system is designed to continuously monitor assets price movements, identifying formation of bases, and providing alert notifications when these bases and/or layers are either breached or adhered to. System settings are adjusted by machine learning model applied to historical price action data. Release Notes These major features and enhancements were introduced since the first launch of the system in November 2021 Enhanced script efficiency for faster compilation and integration; Introduced a "Layer Settings" section for customized layer configurations; Added options for setting a take profit percentage; Exchange commissions implemented into statistic calculations; Implemented a new "Take Profit" plot series, including a data point in the data window, to facilitate trade closure at the current base line; Added a plot series to display emerging bases during active trades on the current base line; Introduced an option to make custom early trade exits including after reaching breakeven; Implemented a setting for enhanced trade exit strategies; Adjusted the minimum layer value for Layer 1 to exchanges’ “minNotional” filter; Modified the start month condition to a calendar month basis for improved initial rendering of base lines; Consolidated all "Layer # Cracked" and "Layer # Respected" X-crosses into a unified "Layer # Cross" set to streamline the Data Window list; Eliminated base/layer line shifts to the Base Marker to simplify chart rendering calculations; Added option to set custom exit conditions at each Layer; System is rebuilt from PineScript programming language to Python using libraries: TA-lib, python-binance, CCXT, scikit-learn; Implementation of Machine Learning based on scikit-learn; Added Bayesian classifier and obtain the corrected indicator’s values; Implemented labeled Elliott wave data once a month for additional model training; Enhanced Signal Issuance Module based on Python 3.10, making decisions based on model predictions, and sending trading signals according to the second-level trading strategy algorithm, implemented using the TA-lib library, in the form of a JSON file to the panel via Webhook; Enhanced integration of Fractal DCA system with Machine Learning extension to ensure seamless and adjusted to market conditions signals production for SmartBot public beta test launch; System structure Identification of Bases The system is engineered to detect pivot lows within a fractal configuration, subsequently verifying their eligibility as bases in alignment with the principles of fractal strategy trading1. The validation process for a pivot low encompasses several checks: Confirmation that the rate of change in price during declines and rebounds surpasses a specified threshold; Verification that the volume at the pivot low exceeds the moving average of volume, determined by a predefined length; Assurance that the volume magnitude significantly exceeds the moving average of volume; Assessment to ensure that the newly identified base is sufficiently distanced from the previous range, employing a specific percentage difference threshold in price. Understanding Fractal Patterns A fractal pattern represents a repetitive configuration observable on price charts, which is instrumental in forecasting reversals amidst broader, more erratic price movements. These fundamental fractals typically consist of five or more bars. The criteria for fractal identification are as follows: A bearish turning point is identified by a pattern where the central bar has the highest high, flanked by two lower highs on each side. A bullish turning point is marked by a pattern where the central bar has the lowest low, surrounded by two higher lows on each side. The fractals depicted in figure below exemplify ideal patterns. It is important to note that while numerous variations of less perfect patterns may occur, the essential structure of the fractal must be preserved for its validity. A notable limitation of fractals as a system is their inherent nature as lagging indicators. Specifically, a fractal cannot be established until a minimum of three bars have completed on the price chart. In the context of the Fractal trading strategy, it is the bullish fractal pattern that is utilized for base identification. The system is equipped with a feature that permits customization of the number of bars that constitute the bullish fractal. The default configuration is set to a 6-bar fractal pattern. This pattern is instrumental in validating price declines and subsequent rebounds. In the latest update, the algorithm has been modified to accommodate a more flexible approach in analyzing the lows of each bar during these declines and rebounds. Instead of requiring a strictly ascending sequence, the revised algorithm focuses on confirming that the pivot point is indeed the lowest, and that the observed declines and rebounds surpass the pre-established ranges. Validation of Cracks and Bounces The process of validating cracks and bounces begins with the identification of a bullish fractal pattern, as per the system's fractal pattern settings. Upon recognizing such a pattern, the system counts the bars to the left and right of the lowest pivot point and then calculates the Price Rate of Change (ROC). The Price Rate of Change is a momentum indicator that quantifies the percentage difference in price between the current price and the price from a specified number of periods ago. The ROC is determined using the following formula: ROC = (Most recent closing price - Closing price n periods ago) / Closing price n periods ago x 100 As demonstrated in figure below, the system employs a 3-3 fractal pattern to calculate the ROC. In this example, the ROC for the Price Drop was computed to be 33.97%, and the ROC for the Price Bounce was 35.93%. These two values are then compared against the predefined “Minimum Price Drop (%)” and “Minimum Price Bounce (%)” settings. Should the ROC values for both Price Drop and Bounce surpass the established thresholds, the base is deemed valid and qualifies for additional validation. Settings either of these parameters to zero (0) implies that the system will bypass this validation step and accept any bullish fractal pattern as valid Volume Validation Methodology In accordance with the principles of Fractal trading, volume plays a crucial role in validating a base. It is primarily used to corroborate the market's robust response in preventing a further decline in price. This is typically evidenced by a "spike" in volume on the price chart, signaling a strong market reaction to the current price level. Moreover, the Fractal trading system acknowledges that volume analysis is particularly pertinent at lower timeframes, where block trades occur. These block trades may not be as discernible in higher timeframes (e.g., on a 1-hour chart). Consequently, while the system incorporates Volume Analysis to gauge the market's reaction at a potential base, this feature is not activated by default, given its optional nature. Volume analysis involves scrutinizing the quantity of shares or contracts traded within a specific timeframe. This analysis is a key tool for technical analysts, who integrate it with other indicators to inform their trading strategies. By examining volume trends alongside price movements, investors can ascertain the significance of price changes in a security. The system executes volume analysis through two distinct methods: Comparison of the volume at the low pivot point against the volume moving average, based on the following criterion: ( > ) = True Application of a multiplication factor to the volume, ensuring it surpasses the volume moving average by a specified margin: ( > ) = True In the following example, volume is greater than volume moving average: Ensuring adequate spacing between bases The system possesses the capability to be configured in such a manner that it spaces out the formation of new bases at a predetermined distance from the existing base. This feature is instrumental in preventing the occurrence of multiple bases being identified near one another. The left chart has 3 base lines that are very close together. No percent of change for new bases 5% percent of change for new bases Base Line Placement The system supports configurable settings for determining the positioning of the base line. This line can be set at the low point of the bar, or alternatively, at the lower value between the opening and closing prices. A comparative analysis of these two distinct options is presented, utilizing the same fractal pattern for evaluation Base Placed on Low Base Place on Open A critical consideration in this context is that if the bar defining the pivot low (termed as the Base Reference Bar) exhibits a lower value than either of the two placements, then the placement will default to utilizing the low of the Base Reference Bar. Base Placement on Low of Reference Bar Understanding Layering Functionality Elucidation of Layers and Their Respective Unit Types The system is designed to accommodate a maximum of nine (9) distinct layers, each equipped with its own set of crack and respect alerts. Layers can be set dynamically through API requests or preconfigured at a position start; unit value can be configured in two ways: as a percentage of the price, as a fixed quantity (such as BTC, USD, etc.). Assigning a value of zero (0) to a layer effectively deactivates it. A “respected” layer definition In the system's framework, a layer is classified as “cracked” when the market price descends beneath the specified layer price threshold. An alert is activated whenever this occurs. However, the criteria for a layer being acknowledged as “respected” can be determined through one of two selectable options. A layer is recognized as respected based on the following price action scenarios: 1. "Respected Base" - means that the system will consider all layers that are cracked below the base as respected when the price action returns to the base after a base crack. For example, consider this chart below: As illustrated, the initial base along with layers 1 and 2 are breached. However, when the price subsequently ascends, the entire configuration is deemed adhered to upon the base being respected. Consequently, in this scenario, a total of four alerts are activated: Base breached; Layer 1 breached; Layer 2 breached; Base respected. Moreover, it is noteworthy that no alert is generated upon the second breach of Layer 2. Therefore, under these settings, a layer is only recognized as breached once while the base breach is in effect. Once the base is respected, the system resets the states of the layers. Hence, if these layers are breached again post-reset, new alerts will be issued accordingly. 2. "Cracks Next Layer First" - means that the system will consider all layers that are cracked below the base as respected when the price action returns to the layer after the layer below it is cracked. For example, consider the chart. Again, the cracked state is restored when the price is returned to the base. While the last layer will never be considered respected since there is no “Next Layer” to be cracked. Duration of layered trading activity The duration of layered trading within the system is adjustable, allowing to define the maximum permissible number of cracks per base. Upon reaching this threshold, the system ceases to issue alerts for further price movements across the layers. Instead, it shifts its focus to identifying new bases as they emerge. A base is deemed to be cracked upon the breach of the first layer. The system offers a configurable option to set a maximum limit on the number of bars for which a layered trade can be active. Upon the breach of the 1st layer, the system initiates a count of the duration, in terms of bars, for which the trade remains active. Should this duration surpass thepredefined maximum threshold, the system will then classify the base as disregarded and start recognizing new base candidates as they emerge. This feature is particularly beneficial in preventing the system from persisting indefinitely on the same base. By default, this setting is assigned a value of 0 bars, indicating that it is initially inactive. The system additionally offers a feature to manage the initiation point for base detection. This functionality is crucial in ensuring that the detection process does not commence amidst an ongoing, long-duration cracked base. Such a scenario could potentially hinder the identification and charting of new bases, thereby impacting the effectiveness of the trading strategy. The system also provides the ability to control the starting point of the base detection so that you can ensure that you are not starting in the middle of a cracked base that is long running in duration, thus preventing new bases from being detected and place on the chart. Risk management settings The system is designed to incorporate a "Take Profit" feature, which enables to exit a trade following a base crack, thereby mitigating the risk of the base not being respected. Alongside the Take Profit functionality, the system also allows for the configuration of Break Even and Stop Loss parameters. These can be activated at predetermined layers, offering users the flexibility to tailor the timing of their application. Furthermore, the system facilitates the input of specific exchange buy and sell commission rates. This inclusion is critical for refining the Take Profit calculations, ensuring they are as accurate as possible to realize the intended profit margins. These configurations play a pivotal role in recalculating the Take Profit price line with each layer crack. It's important to note that the efficacy of this setting is contingent on the "Layer Is Respected When Price" being configured to "Respects Base." In scenarios where this is not the case, the Take Profit price line will experience an upward adjustment whenever layers are respected. Therefore, the optimal utility of this setting is realized when it is paired with the "Respects Base" configuration. The calculation of the Take Profit line value will inherently treat the Stop Loss Percentage as a negative figure. Consequently, there is no requirement to specify a negative number for this setting. Accompanying this text are screenshots that demonstrate diverse instances of these settings being applied within a chart context Take Profit with Layer Activation Settings Disabled Take Profit Activated at Layer 3 Break Even Activated at Layer 3 Stop Loss Activated at Last Layer
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