Get started

Strategy

The Case for the Dow Jones Breaking the 30,000 levelThe latest US GDP growth was 2.7% for Q4 2022. Unemployment rate is 3.4% in January 2023. Annual inflation rate is 6.4% in January. Fed Fund Rates is 4.50%-4.75% and climbing. Manufacturing and Industrials are struggling, but not bad. Yearly retail sales minted at 6.4% in January. The Fed Rate Monitor is showing an increase for a 0.25% at a 74.50% probability and for a 0.50% at 25.5% probability. Next month, the US NFP will be released March 10th, along with the unemployment rate; March 14th is the Inflation Rate YoY; March 15th PPI MoM; and finally the FED Interest Rate Decision. This all looks good for the FED to keep raising rates and the question is, "how long can the DJ keep holding on above the 30,000. Yes the inflation data could potentially come out lower, but I am thinking that the FED thinks they have more room to raise rates and if it is true, that they are planning on raising rates a couple more times after the March Rate Decision, might be what is needed to start hammering the Dow Jones. I am thinking the inflation data before the meeting will push the thought of a 0.50% rate hike higher or lower, depending on what the printing looks like. I give it to the DJ, it is highly resistant and is managing to stay above the 30,000. But it is only a matter of time until it breaks lower.
FOREXCOM:US30Long
by DollarSaenz
Price / Earnings: Interpretation #1In one of my first posts , I talked about the main idea of ​​my investment strategy: buy great “things” during the sales season . This rule can be applied to any object of the material world: real estate, cars, clothes, food and, of course, shares of public companies. However, a seemingly simple idea requires the ability to understand both the quality of “things” and their value. Suppose we have solved the issue with quality (*). (*) A very bold assumption, I realize that. However, the following posts will cover this topic in more detail. Be a little patient. So, we know the signs of a high-quality thing and are able to define it skilfully enough. But what about its cost? "Easy-peasy!" you will say, "For example, I know that the Mercedes-Benz plant produces high-quality cars, so I should just find out the prices for a certain model in different car dealerships and choose the cheapest one." "Great plan!" I will say. But what about shares of public companies? Even if you find a fundamentally strong company, how do you know if it is expensive or cheap? Let's imagine that the company is also a machine. A machine that makes profit. It needs to be fed with resources, things are happening in there, some cogs are turning, and as a result we get earnings. This is its main goal and purpose. Each machine has its own name, such as Apple or McDonald's. It has its own resources and mechanisms, but it produces one product – earnings. Now let’s suppose that the capitalization of the company is the value of such a machine. Let's see how much Apple and McDonald's cost today: Apple - $2.538 trillion McDonald's - $202.552 billion We see that Apple is more than 10 times more expensive than McDonald's. But is it really so from an investor's point of view? The paradox is that we can't say for sure that Apple is 10 times more expensive than McDonald's until we divide each company's value by its earnings. Why exactly? Let's count and it will become clear: Apple's diluted net income - $99.803 billion a year McDonald's diluted net income - $6.177 billion a year Now read this phrase slowly, and if necessary, several times: “The value is what we pay now. Earnings are what we get all the time” . To understand how many dollars we need to pay now for the production of 1 dollar of profit a year, we need to divide the value of the company (its capitalization) by its annual profit. We get: Apple - $25.43 McDonald’s - $32.79 It turns out that in order to get $ 1 earnings a year, for Apple we need to pay $25.43, and for McDonald's - $32.79. Wow! Currently, I believe that Apple appears cheaper than McDonald's. To remember this information better, imagine two machines that produce one-dollar bills at the same rate (once a year). In the case of an Apple machine, you pay $25.43 to issue this bill, and in the case of a McDonald’s machine, you pay $32.70. Which one will you choose? So, if we remove the $ symbol from these numbers, we get the world's most famous financial ratio Price/Earnings or P/E . It shows how much we, as investors, need to pay for the production of 1 unit of annual profit. And pay only once. There are two formulas for calculating this financial ratio: 1. P/E = Price of 1 share / Diluted EPS 2. P/E = Capitalization / Diluted Net Income Whatever formula you use, the result will be the same. By the way, I mainly use the Diluted Net Income instead of the regular one in my calculations. So do not be confused if you see a formula with a Net Income – you can calculate it this way as well. So, in the current publication, I have analyzed one of the interpretations of this financial ratio. But, in fact, there is another interpretation that I really like. It will help you realize which P/E level to choose for yourself. But more on that in the next post. See you!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Be_Capy
11
Successful Automated Trading : Alpha Scalping Bot (XAUSUSD)Alpha Scalping Bot ( FX:XAUUSD ) From 2019 until now Percent Profitable : 73.8% Profit Factor : 4.4 Max Drawdown : Very Low 2.5% We all know how it can be challenging, frustrating, struggling to make money especially in bear market. Save your energy, your emotions, your nerves! Alpha Scalping will allow you to sleep better and make money while you sleep! We tested hundreds of indicators, strategies, bots since 2010, today we will start to release a series of successful bots and automatic strategies for you, some of them will be free, some of them will be paid (monthly subscriptions) We will also indicate how to connect the Alpha Scalping to your Binance or FTX account so you can trade automatically. Alpha Scalping is suitable for Crypto, Forex, Commodities, indexes ... Enjoy, subscribe and stay tuned! DM me if you want to access to Alpha Scalping Bots
FX:XAUUSD
by Alpha-Capital
Why do most traders end up losing moneyThis question is quite scary, but if you are a novice and see this question, congratulations, you are on the right path of trading. The most important lesson to learn before entering the financial markets is risk expectation. You can ask yourself, how much money do you want to make from trading? Is your goal asset appreciation, or a small fortune? If a trade loses money, will it affect your own life? Is your own character able to stop losses in time, or do you have no self-control? After asking these questions, we decide whether to enter the financial market. So why do the vast majority of traders lose money? 1. Because of the particularity of the financial market. I believe that many friends have heard of the 28 rule. For example, in the distribution of wealth in our society, 20% of people control 80% of social wealth; 20% of people will persist in encountering difficulties, and 80% of people will give up when encountering difficulties. The rule of 28 is ubiquitous in life, and it also determines what kind of people will succeed and what kind of people will fail. As for the financial market, it is crueler than real life, because there are no rules in this market, only human nature, so the financial market even surpasses the rule of 28, and less than 10% of people may make profits. In the face of money, most people want to make a big fortune with a small amount, and want to turn around by trading, so those who have stable personalities, strong self-control, low income expectations, and money in their hands are silently harvesting these people who are eager for quick success. Some people may say that the world is inherently unfair, and those who hold funds can only survive because of the capital. Actually no. We Xiaosan hold small funds, and we can achieve low return expectations, or we can do it slowly, but how many people are just anxious to make money? Just want to make a big difference with a small one? Just don’t regard money as money, and think it’s a big deal to take a gamble, and if it’s gone, it’s gone? So it has nothing to do with the amount of capital, but has something to do with people. In financial markets, human nature is the rule. 2. Too many people are dominated by human nature. As I said before, there are no rules in the financial market, and human nature is the rule. Trading is a very anti-human thing. Human nature is greedy for comfort, averse to risk, afraid of losing, feeling that one's level is higher than others, hating giving and learning, impatient, etc., which will be infinitely magnified in trading. There is a saying in the trading industry that trading can be profitable, mentality accounts for 70%, and technology accounts for 30%. In actual combat, it seems that it is not difficult for traders to see the market correctly, but it is very difficult to complete this wave of market and make profits. Why? I give two examples. For example, the problem of stop loss in trading. Seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages is a characteristic of human nature, unwillingness to lose, unwilling to accept losses, this is human self-protection awareness. Stopping losses in the wrong direction means losing our real money, who can bear it? So in actual combat, many people rationally know that the direction is wrong, but they just don't stop losses, and even increase their positions against the trend, floating orders, allowing the stop loss to become bigger and bigger, and finally lead to serious losses. Another example is the profitable position in the transaction. The market trend always fluctuates upwards, or fluctuates downwards, and profit taking in positions is often encountered. Once profits are withdrawn, we will have a sense of insecurity in our hearts, worrying about the reversal of the market and losing profits. This insecurity is also due to human nature. Even if we rationally know that the profit target has not yet been reached, we should continue to hold positions, but the little emotion of longing for peace of mind has been tormenting us, and in the end we couldn't help but close the position, and made a lot of less money. We comfort ourselves that it is all right, at least there is no loss. But in fact, less earning = loss, because the amount you lose next time will be greater than the money you earn. In the long run, your overall loss will be. There are many such examples, such as betting on the market, heavy trading, unwillingness to admit defeat, stop loss leading to liquidation, etc., are all caused by the aversion to loss in human nature and the fear of failure. In fact, if we look at the trading market 100 years ago, it is basically the same as the current human nature problem. The weakness of human nature is very strong, and it is also the main reason why traders lose money. So at the beginning, I asked everyone to ask themselves those questions, just to let everyone understand their own personality, their current situation, and their human nature, so as to help you win certain opportunities in the trading market. Trading is like a free game. It seems that the threshold is low and no money is required, but in fact some hidden costs are contained in it, and the human nature is clearly played for you. Therefore, before making a transaction, you must have an existing risk expectation, and then think about making money.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by CheetahAttack
Hunting Breakouts with Bollinger Bands and OBVThanks to zAngus for the idea, here is a simple trading strategy that uses two tools: Bollinger Bands and OBV to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease. First and foremost, please note that this explanation is simplified and only covers the basics. Each individual can develop their own settings and adjustments according to their own preferences. Imagine that you are looking at a price chart of an asset. This chart shows how prices have changed over time. Sometimes prices go up and sometimes they go down. The trading strategy we are going to show you can help you find moments when prices are about to change direction. - Bollinger Bands are lines that show a zone where prices of an asset are likely to stay. These lines have two parts: a middle line that shows an average of prices and two other lines that show the zone where prices should be. The lines widen and narrow based on the volatility of prices. - OBV (On-Balance Volume) is another tool that measures whether more people are buying or selling an asset. If more people are buying an asset, OBV increases, and if more people are selling an asset, OBV decreases. Now, here is how we use these two tools to find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease: 1. First, we wait for prices to stabilize for a certain amount of time. This means that prices don't go up or down much during a given period. 2. Next, we look at the Bollinger Bands to see if prices have reached the upper or lower limit. If prices exceed the upper limit, it may mean that prices will increase. If prices fall below the lower limit, it may mean that prices will decrease. 3. To confirm what we have seen in the Bollinger Bands, we look at the OBV. If OBV increases or decreases at the same time as prices exceed the upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands, it means that more people are buying or selling the asset, and this reinforces our idea that prices will increase or decrease. 4. We enter the market by buying or selling the asset based on whether we think prices will increase or decrease. 5. We exit the market when prices reach the opposite upper or lower limit of the Bollinger Bands or an important resistance zone. This is a simple strategy, but it can help find moments when an asset's prices can increase or decrease. Remember that you must always use good risk management to avoid losing too much money if the market doesn't follow your forecast. Please note that this Bollinger Bands and OBV breakout trading strategy involves risk and is intended for educational purposes only. Any investments made using this strategy are done at your own risk, and you should always do your own research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.
Education
by Julien_Eche
Bitcoin Chart Setting Up for Big MoveThe chart has been setting up this move for some time now. We have the neckline of this inverted head and shoulders which allows for a drop to 14,700 while forming a bullish pattern structure. Additional to this neckline, we have a local bearish retest and 3-5 more bearish retests intersecting with this same price range marked in green. Stop loss in purple. DXY may allow for this move to happen and it could very well be a fast wick, since price only needs to touch the neckline to create a valid justification for a low zone of interest despite bullish sentiments for Bitcoin. Drops are well justified inside of a bullish pattern. Very sophisticated chart set up. Move would be justified in either a bearish or bullish forecast since it is both at the same time. There is a lower time frame bearish retest at this level as well as a parallel channel top that can be marked with proper trend lines. The channel bottom is 26,650 Keep an eye out or set alerts for what could be the surprise move of the year.
Short
by DickDandy
1
What can financial ratios tell us?In the previous post we learned what financial ratios are. These are ratios of various indicators from financial statements that help us draw conclusions about the fundamental strength of a company and its investment attractiveness. In the same post, I listed the financial ratios that I use in my strategy, with formulas for their calculations. Now let's take apart each of them and try to understand what they can tell us. - Diluted EPS . Some time ago I have already told about the essence of this indicator. I would like to add that this is the most influential indicator on the stock market. Financial analysts of investment companies literally compete in forecasts, what will be EPS in forthcoming reports of the company. If they agree that EPS will be positive, but what actually happens is that it is negative, the stock price may fall quite dramatically. Conversely, if EPS comes out above expectations - the stock is likely to rise strongly during the coverage period. - Price to Diluted EPS ratio . This is perhaps the best-known financial ratio for evaluating a company's investment appeal. It gives you an idea of how many years your investment in a stock will pay off if the current EPS is maintained. I have a particular take on this ratio, so I plan to devote a separate publication to it. - Gross margin, % . This is the size of the markup to the cost of the company's product (service) or, in other words, margin . It is impossible to say that small margin is bad, and large - good. Different companies may have different margins. Some sell millions of products by small margins and some sell thousands by large margins. And both of those companies may have the same gross margins. However, my preference is for those companies whose margins grow over time. This means that either the prices of the company's products (services) are going up, or the company is cutting production costs. - Operating expense ratio . This ratio is a great indicator of management's ability to manage a company's expenses. If the revenue increases and this ratio decreases, it means that the management is skillfully optimizing the operating expenses. If it is the other way around, shareholders should wonder how well management is handling current affairs. - ROE, % is a ratio reflecting the efficiency of a company's equity performance. If a company earned 5% of its equity, i.e. ROE = 5%, and the bank deposit rate = 7%, then shareholders have a reasonable question: why invest equity in business development, if it can be placed in a bank deposit and get more, without expending extra effort? In other words, ROE, % reflects the return on invested equity. If it is growing, it is definitely a positive factor for the company and the shareholders. - Days payable . This financial ratio is an excellent indicator of the solvency of the company. We can say that it is the number of days it will take the company to pay all debts to suppliers from its revenue. If the number of days is relatively small, it means that the company has no delays in paying for supplies and therefore no money problems. I consider less than 30 days to be acceptable, but over 90 days is critical. - Days sales outstanding . I already mentioned in my previous posts that when a company is having a bad sales situation, it may even sell its products on credit. Such debts accumulate in accounts receivable. Obviously, large accounts receivable are a risk for the company, because the debts may simply not be paid back. For ease of control over this indicator, they invented such a financial ratio as "Days sales outstanding". We can say that this is the number of days it will take the company to earn revenue equivalent to the accounts receivable. It's one thing if the receivables are 365 daily revenue and another if it's only 10 daily revenue. Like the previous ratio: less than 30 days is acceptable to me, but over 90 days is critical. - Inventory to revenue ratio . This is the amount of inventory in relation to revenue. Since inventory includes not only raw materials but also unsold products, this ratio can indicate sales problems. The more inventory a company has in relation to revenue, the worse it is. A ratio below 0.25 is acceptable to me; a ratio above 0.5 indicates that there are problems with sales. - Current ratio . This is the ratio of current assets to current liabilities. Remember, we said that current assets are easier and faster to sell than non-current, so they are also called quick assets. In the event of a crisis and lack of profit in the company, quick assets can be an excellent help to make payments on debts and settlements with suppliers. After all, they can be sold quickly enough to pay off these liabilities. To understand the size of this "safety cushion", the current ratio is calculated. The larger it is, the better. For me, a suitable current ratio is 2 or higher. But below 1 it does not suit me. - Interest coverage . We already know that loans play an important role in a company's operations. However, I am convinced that this role should not be the main one. If a company spends all of its profits to pay interest on loans, it is working for the bank, not for the shareholders. To find out how tangible interest on loans is for the company, the "Interest coverage" ratio was invented. According to the income statement, interest on loans is paid out of operating income. So if we divide the operating income by this interest, we get this ratio. It shows us how many times more the company earns than it spends on debt service. To me, the acceptable coverage ratio should be above 6, and below 3 is weak. - Debt to revenue ratio . This is a useful ratio that shows the overall picture of the company's debt situation. It can be interpreted the following way: it shows how much revenue should be earned in order to close all the debts. A debt to revenue ratio of less than 0.5 is positive. It means that half (or even less) of the annual revenue will be enough to close the debt. A debt to revenue ratio higher than 1 is considered a serious problem since the company does not even have enough annual revenue to pay off all of its debts. So, the financial ratios greatly simplify the process of fundamental analysis, because they allow you to quickly draw conclusions about the financial condition of the company, without looking up and down at its statements. You just look at ratios of key indicators and draw conclusions. In the next post, I will tell you about the king of all financial ratios - the Price to Diluted EPS ratio, or simply P/E. See you soon!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Be_Capy
Top Pullback Trading StrategiesTop Pullback Trading Strategies In this article, we will be discussing some of the most effective pullback trading strategies that can assist forex traders in identifying ideal entry points that align with the current trend. These strategies enable traders to take advantage of short-term price retracements, allowing them to navigate the volatile currency market with greater ease and profitability. What is pullback trading? Pullback trading refers to the practice of capitalizing on temporary price retracements or surges within an existing uptrend or downtrend in the forex market. These fluctuations in price typically occur over a brief period and do not interrupt the prevailing trend. Traders can leverage pullbacks by entering positions when the currency pair's price approaches its support or resistance level, enabling them to profit from upward or downward market movements. Discover the Top Pullback Trading Strategies for Forex Traders Moving Average Strategy The Moving Average (MA) strategy is among the most widely used techniques for identifying pullbacks in an ongoing uptrend. This technical indicator calculates the average price of a currency pair over a specified timeframe and compares it with the present price to ascertain market behaviour. In an uptrend, when the current price of the currency pair is significantly below its average price, it suggests that a short-term dip is likely to occur and provides a signal to enter long positions. Conversely, in a downtrend, if the current price of the currency pair is significantly above its average price, it implies that a short-term hike is probable, indicating the need to enter short positions to profit from a subsequent market downturn. Trendline Strategy Trendlines play a crucial role in identifying the direction of a trend in forex. Connecting three or more high or low price levels creates an uptrend or downtrend trendline, respectively. When trading pullbacks with trendlines, traders look for higher high price levels followed by higher low price levels, indicating a temporary dip in an ongoing uptrend. Alternatively, traders can enter short positions with trendlines showing lower low price levels followed by higher low price levels, signaling a temporary hike in an ongoing downtrend. Traders can enter long or short positions with trendlines at the third, fourth, or fifth high or low price level, as these levels confirm the prevailing trend and signal the optimal entry point in the forex market. Breakout Strategy The Breakout strategy enables traders to enter the market immediately after currency pair prices reach their support or resistance level and subsequently move above or below it, respectively. Breakouts represent opposing movements to the prevailing trend, providing opportunities to enter the market during temporary reversals. In an uptrend, when the currency pair price briefly touches its support level and contracts, a breakout signals a pullback in the trend, providing a signal to enter long positions and benefit from rising prices. Conversely, in a downtrend, when the currency pair price briefly touches its resistance level and expands, a breakout signals a pullback in the trend, providing a signal to enter short positions and benefit from falling prices. Fibonacci Retracement Strategy The Fibonacci Retracement strategy determines the optimal levels for entering the market during an uptrend or downtrend. Using Fibonacci levels, traders can identify the ideal support and resistance levels, based on which they can decide to long or short the market. This strategy utilizes Fibonacci retracement levels, which indicate how much currency pair prices are retracing before continuing in the prevailing trend direction. During a downtrend, lower Fibonacci levels, such as 23.6% and 38.2%, suggest that the markets have not retraced significantly, enabling traders to identify the ideal resistance level (representing a temporary pullback hike) and signal short trades due to the expected continuation of the downtrend. Conversely, during an uptrend, higher Fibonacci levels, such as 61.8% or 78.6%, indicate that the markets have retraced extensively, helping to identify the ideal support level (representing a temporary pullback dip) and signal short trades due to the anticipated continuation of the uptrend. Additionally, during an uptrend, lower Fibonacci levels like 23.6% and 38.2% suggest that prices are approaching the resistance level, which may break above this level, signaling traders to place long orders and benefit from the ongoing rising markets. On the other hand, during a downtrend, higher Fibonacci levels like 61.8% or 78.6% indicate that prices are approaching the support level, which may fall below the support level, signaling traders to place short orders and benefit from the ongoing falling markets. Trade forex pullbacks and identify ideal entry prices In forex trading, pullbacks can help traders pinpoint the optimal entry points for both long and short trades. By identifying temporary dips or hikes in currency pair prices during an existing uptrend or downtrend, traders can take advantage of short-term trading opportunities without missing out on potential profits.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
13
Usage of OBV, RSI and Volume1. Combination of PVA is very interesting and powerful tool that we can used to predict the price trajectory. 2. In the example above (LAYHONG, a poultry stocks in Malaysian Stocks Market). 3. This is my analysis on the stocks: a) Price making lower low and retesting a major trendline. b) Low volume while retesting the trendline c) A bullish divergence is shown in RSI indicator d) A bullish divergence is shown in OBV e) Clearly this is an opportunity to go long as bullish divergence plus testing support zone with low volume.
MYX:LAYHONG
by MeggsyLopez
Bullish Gold Next Month ? Will XAUUSD really touch 2100 $ ?After all things that happened in this month , people are scared of losing their money while putting them on banks , so that will push individuals to invest their money to escape the bank crise , as we know that a lot of companies invested in the gold metal at the start of 2023 , and the war between Russia and Ukraine that Is getting worse because It becomes a crime war , so for me It's the great time to invest in gold for a long term time !
TVC:GOLDLong
by ZumixFX
Financial ratios: digesting them togetherI hope that after studying the series of posts about company financial statements, you stopped being afraid of them. I suggest we build on that success and dive into the fascinating world of financial ratios. What is it? Let's look at the following example. Let's say you open up a company's balance sheet and see that the amount of debt is $100 million. Do you think this is a lot or a little? To me, it's definitely a big deal. But can we say the company has a huge debt based only on how we feel about it? I don't think so. However, if you find that a company that generates $10 billion in annual revenue has $100 million in debt (i.e. only 1% of revenue), what would you say then? That's objectively small, isn't it? It turns out that without correlating one indicator with another, we cannot draw any objective conclusion. This correlation is called the Financial Ratio . The recipe for a normal financial ratio is simple: we take one or two indicators from the financial statements, add some market data, put it all into a formula that includes a division operation - we obtain the financial ratio. In TradingView you can find a lot of financial ratios in the section Financials -> Statistics . However, I only use a few financial ratios which give me an idea about the financial situation of the company and its value: What can you notice when looking at this table? - Profit and revenue are frequent components of financial ratios because they are universal units of measurement for other reporting components. Just as length can be measured in feet and weight in pounds, a company's debts can be measured in revenues. - Some financial ratios are ratios, some are percentages, and some are days. - There are no financial ratios in the table whose data source is the Cash Flow Statement. The fact is that cash flows are rarely used in financial ratios because they can change drastically from quarter to quarter. This is especially true for financial and investment cash flow. That's why I recommend analyzing cash flows separately. In my next post, I'll break down each financial ratio from this table in detail and explain why I use them specifically. See you soon!
SP:SPXEducation
by Be_Capy
Backtesting Tip- What You May Be Doing WrongThis part of trading is very unattractive to most people or simply performed incorrectly. There is nothing flashy about back-testing and it requires time, work and patience. Most individuals interested in trading will avoid this part of the job all together at first or use an automated approach to testing, leading them to failure after failure without ever acknowledging the issue! I know the idea of so much work consisting of this much time is daunting but you will learn to appreciate the process. Even if you never like testing a strategy, you don't really have much of a choice. You will eventually develop some way of testing/monitoring your trading strategy & performance because without this, I can almost guarantee you will not succeed. I have touched on many of the back testing mistakes in the past and will discuss more in the future I am sure- but today I am going to answer a crucial question that has been asked to me several times. When Back testing a strategy, do I need to test the strategy for each individual market (ticker) I am trading? The answer to this question is YES! Let me clarify exactly what I mean so there is no confusion- As an example, lets say you have created a strategy and tested it correctly on GOLD (XAUUSD). Your test results show that this strategy DOES work when trading gold and maybe you have successfully used it in your live account as well. This DOES NOT mean that this strategy is going to work when trading Silver or EURUSD or TSLA. You must test each market (ticker symbol) separately, as results will vary wildly. A strategy that is profitable while trading one market may not be profitable in another! It is important that you gather proper data points in regards to this strategies performance as well, in order to identify any changes in results over time. It is not uncommon to have to make adjustments to a strategy over time as market conditions and behavior change- to ensure you remain profitable. In summary- each market (or ticker symbol) must be treated as its own entity, therefore your strategy needs to be tested for each individual market you plan to trade it in. After you have tested a strategy and it is producing profits, you will want to monitor this strategy, in order to determine if you are making trading mistakes or simply need to make new adjustments to accommodate recent changes in market conditions, or behavior. I know this was a short one but very important! I hope this was helpful and if you have any questions or would like to use the backtesting tool that I use- please leave a comment and I will follow up asap!
Education
by Alec40
2
📈HOW TO RECOVER FROM A TRADING LOSS📉 🔰Analyze the reasons behind the trading loss: Understanding what caused the loss is essential to avoid repeating the same mistake. Analyze the market conditions, trading strategy, and emotions behind the loss. 🔰Stick to a trading plan: A trading plan acts as a blueprint for a successful trading journey. Follow your trading plan and avoid any impulsive decisions. 🔰Cut losses short: Don't hold onto losing trades in the hope of recouping your losses. Cut the losses immediately and move on to the next opportunity. 🔰Diversify: Diversification can reduce your overall risk. Spread your investments across multiple channels and avoid investing all your money in a single asset. 🔰Learn from successful traders: Successful traders can provide valuable advice and insights into trading. Follow their strategies and learn from their experiences. 🔰Reduce the trading size: To avoid significant losses, reduce your trading size. Start with small trades and gradually increase the position size. 🔰Control emotions: Emotions play a significant role in trading. Avoid trading based on emotions and stick to the trading plan. 🔰Stay informed: Keep abreast of the latest market news and events. Follow economic indicators, news releases, and expert opinions. 🔰Take a break: Taking a break after a trading loss can help you clear your mind and recharge. Take time to assess your trading journey, re-evaluate your strategy and come back refreshed. ❗️Remember that trading losses are part of the journey, and everyone experiences them. Recovering from a loss requires discipline, patience, and a willingness to learn from mistakes. Stick to your plan, manage risk, control emotions and with time, recover from the loss. I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Do you like this post? Do you want more articles like that
Education
by ProSignalsFx
12
Which Moving Average Strategy Crushes MA Crossovers? This...If you read last week’s article, you saw results for the famous (or infamous!) moving average crossover. It bombed vs buy and hold over the last 10 years, even when using take-profit and stop-loss levels. So, how do moving average bounces perform with the same exit levels? That’s what we’re testing today… The Trading Truth Test Setup Our setup is the same as last time, except we just need one moving average. Market: the S&P 500 index (using SPY to trade it) Timeframe: Jan 1, 2013 to January 31, 2023 Bar interval: 30 minutes. Moving averages: 50 bars (simple moving averages, meaning every bar gets equal weight, unlike with exponential) Starting Equity: $25,000 Max % of Equity Per Trade: 3% Commissions, fees and taxes. To keep things super simple, we’re again assuming these are all zero. How Is “Bounce” Defined? Traders look for ricochets off moving averages in a bajillion ways. Let’s be real: most just eyeball charts without real rules. That won’t work for rigorous renegades like us, though. :-) So, for Test A, here’s how we defined a bounce when price is above the MA: A price bar’s low is above the moving average The next price bar’s low touches or pierces the MA for one bar. (A close below the MA is ok.) The bar touching or piercing the MA can’t go more than 0.5% below the MA The next bar’s low must again be above the MA. Flip these rules for a bounce when price is below the MA. I know, I know… many bounces don’t happen until 2 bars (sometimes more) hover on or below the MA. We're keeping the criteria here simple. We define Test B the same way, except with an extra filter: The 50-bar MA needs to be sloping up at least 0.5% over the last 25 bars for long trades (and -0.5% or less for short trades). Alrighty, now, let’s check out the results… The Test Results Like with the MA crossovers test before, let’s first look at how plain ol’ buy and hold did over the same period. If you parked your cash in the S&P 500, your money would be worth 2.9 times as much by the end. Pretty good. So how did Test A do? The ending equity after 10 years was $40,112.74, 1.6 times your money with 24.27% max drawdown. Test B, in which we only took trades if the MA was sloping (trending) enough, we ended with $43,149.00, for a 1.7x return with only 17.75% max drawdown. That makes the return on risk much better than Test A. Yet, while these returns beat the pants off of our MA crossover tests, boring old buy and hold still whooped them both. What Would You Change About This Bounce Strategy? Trade a different market? Longer or shorter time frame? Tweak how a bounce is defined? Comment below to share. Also, please let me know: what else do you want to see tested?
SP:SPX
by TradingTruthseeker