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EURUSD 12 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - CPI, Powell & TariffThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment In my Weekly Analysis, tariffs continue to dominate the narrative, yet market reactions have become the primary focus. The critical question is whether investors have grown accustomed to tariff-related news—leading to muted responses—or if the persistent tariff war rhetoric will trigger renewed market anxiety. Notably, Powell’s testimony yesterday failed to offer any fresh insights; however, there is hope that today’s session might shed some light on future policy directions. Additionally, the USD’s weakness observed at the close of trading yesterday appears to have been driven more by reports of a territorial swap in Ukraine’s peace deal—and possibly an initial leak of the CPI data—rather than by Powell’s remarks. Today’s CPI report is expected to be a significant driver of market volatility. Investors are eagerly anticipating softer CPI numbers, which could encourage the Fed to consider not only an earlier rate cut but potentially two cuts this year, contrasting with the current market consensus of just one. While tariffs are clearly contributing to upward inflationary pressures and prompting a cautious stance from the Fed, the immediate volatility is likely to stem from the CPI data. The market will be closely watching whether the tariffs are being employed as a negotiating tactic—or if they signal an intentional escalation towards a trade war. Markets face a tug-of-war between CPI-driven rate hopes and tariff-induced risks. While CPI may spark a tactical rally if soft, tariffs remain the swing factor – any escalation (e.g., new retaliatory measures) would overshadow short-term data. Position for choppy trading until Trump’s tariff strategy crystallizes. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs turning Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹At Swing Premium 2️⃣ 🔹With yesterday PA, price failed to continue Bearish and created a Bullish i-BOS. 🔹Price reached the 4H supply as anticipated and mitigated the 15m Supply within the 4H to maybe initiate the Bullish INT Structure pullback phase and if the swing is going to continue Bearish there is a high probability to target the Strong INT Low. 🔹The current Bullish i-BOS aligns with the 4H Swing where we have also a high probability that we can target the 15m Strong Swing High. 🔹With the inconsistency of Time frames alignments, a clear direction is difficult to identify which requires a sit back and watch till we have a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹From an intraday perspective, expectations are set to Bearish to facilitate the Bullish INT Structure pullback. 🔹Today’s CPI, Powell and Tariffs talks will have high volatility that could direct me tomorrow or next week for a clearer direction move.
by Amr-Sadek
2
XAU/USD: Riding the Momentum 4H is doing exactly what it should—straight bullish, no hesitation. Momentum is clear, and I’m not here to fight it. Dropped to the 30M to catch the continuation. IDM has already been taken out, so now it’s a waiting game. Just need price to dip into the 30M order block for that clean mitigation before I step in. Nothing forced, just precision. Most traders chase gold. I position myself before the move. Let’s see if price respects the blueprint. #XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #Liquidity #PriceAction Bless Trading!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Juicemannn
EUR/GBP: The Setup is Unfolding 30M already did its job—mitigated the order block just like I expected. Now? It’s all about catching the continuation move. I’m locked in on the 5M, waiting for a CHoCH to confirm bullish structure. But that’s not enough—I need liquidity to build up, get swept, and give me that clean mitigation before I step in. Precision over impulse. Most traders force trades. I let the market show its hand first. Let’s see if price wants to run these highs next. #EURGBP #SMC #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #LiquiditySweep #PriceAction Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EUR/USD: Precision Over Emotion30M just gave the CHoCH—exactly what I was waiting for. Buyers are showing their hand, and now it’s all about execution. 5M is the playground. Liquidity has been swept, and now I’m watching for price to mitigate the order block before making its next move. No guessing. No hesitation. Just Smart Money at work. Most traders react—I anticipate. Let’s see if price respects the blueprint. #EURUSD #SMC #SmartMoney #OrderBlocks #Liquidity #PriceAction Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD 11 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Powell & Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 11 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key. Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War narrative? Today Powell will be the market mover as investors are waiting for a clue for direction. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Strong Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Bearish INT structure Continuation. 🔹Since yesterday market open, price is ranging within the Bearish INT structure. 🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down. 🔹After reaching the Bearish INT structure extreme price is moving down in a corrective PA and currently in the extreme discount of the INT Structure. 🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). No Long setups/confirmations are clear for me. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EUR/USD - Bearish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe: • Still in a bearish structure → Major sell confirmations. • Took out buy-side liquidity (BSL) and inducement (IDM) before mitigating a supply zone → Bearish intent remains. 🔹 30M Timeframe: • Bearish structure confirmed, but price is forming a range inside the bearish structure. • This range has built a bullish structure, likely a manipulation move to strike supply before continuing down. • Took out SSL & IDM within the bullish structure → Tapped a bullish order block inside the range. 🔹 5M Timeframe: • Waiting for a flip entry → CHoCH break of major LH + liquidity sweep before entry. • Plan: If 5M confirms CHoCH + sweep + order block retest, I’ll enter for a continuation downward. 🎯 Target: Next major low inside the 4H bearish structure. 🛑 Invalidation: If price flips structure fully bullish and holds above supply zones. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EURUSD 10 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - Tariffs!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 10 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment My Weekly Analysis HERE still the same as Tariffs is the main theme but market reaction is the key. Is the market got used to the Tariffs news so reactions will be soft and fade or we are going to see more fear in the market with Tariff War ? 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹INT Structure continuing Bearish following the 4H Continuation. 🔹With today open, market created a new Bearish iBOS due to Tariffs announcements. 🔹Current INT High is the 4H CHoCH which could be taken out as liquidity for continuation down. 🔹Price currently reached the Supply zone that caused the Bearish iBOS and we could see continuation down targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹For me, I’d prefer to short from the 4H Supply after sweeping the 15m INT High (4H CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 - Weekly Analysis - US CPI/PPI/PowellThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 10-14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment Mixed Labor Market Signals The February 7 NFP report showed 143K new jobs (below expectations of 170K), signaling potential cooling in the labor market. However, strong wage growth (0.5% MoM, 4.1% YoY) and a 4% unemployment rate (down from 4.1%) suggest lingering inflationary pressures. Markets may interpret this as a "Goldilocks" scenario: cooling job growth could delay Fed rate hikes, but elevated wage inflation keeps stagflation risks alive. Tariff Volatility and Trade Uncertainty Trump’s tariffs (10% on China, delayed 25% on Canada/Mexico) dominate market psychology. While tariffs are a negotiation tool, their sudden implementation and reversal create uncertainty. For example: Automotive and energy sectors face direct risks due to integrated North American supply chains. Consumer goods (e.g., electronics, produce) may see price hikes, amplifying inflation fears. Retaliatory measures from China add to global trade tensions. Week major news events Fed’s Powell testifies ECB Lagarde Speech US CPI, PPI and Retail Sales EU GDP Given the forecasts and the recent NFP report showing slower job growth, market sentiment could be cautious. If the CPI and PPI readings come in higher than expected, it could reinforce concerns about inflation and lead to USD Strength. Investors might seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, if the CPI and PPI readings are in line with or lower than expectations, it could provide some relief to the markets and support a more positive sentiment which will lead to Weaker USD. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicated that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price pulled back after the Bullish CHoCH to the Weekly Demand formed and showed reaction after a volatile week. 🔹Price still looking bearish to target the Weak INT low to target the Weekly unmitigated demand. Ultimately targeting the Swing Weak Low. 🔹Noticing that the Bearish INT Low didn’t pullback to at least the INT Structure EQ (50%) so there is a chance that price could hold the current Weekly Demand to fulfil the i-BOS pullback phase which will require MTF to confirm this scenario. 🔹Expectation is set to Bearish continuation targeting the Weak INT Low and the unmitigated Weekly Demand. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Price failed for the 2nd time to close below the Weak INT Low after mitigating the Daily Demand formed from the failure to close below the Weak INT Low which triggered aggressive Bullish reaction and mitigating the Daily Supply Zone formed from the recent Bearish CHoCH. 🔹After Supply mitigation, price continued Bearish following the Bearish INT Structure continuation phase. 🔹Expectations is price to continue Bearish to target the Weak INT Low and hopefully we get a confirmed close which is fulfilling the Weekly target of continuing Bearish. 🔹Notice that if the Daily formed a Bullish CHoCH (Currently above the recent mitigated Supply) this will shift my outlook to the Weekly Scenario of a deep pullback of the Weekly INT Structure to at least the Structure EQ (50%). MTF required to shift Bullish to confirm. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs are staying Bearish. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 7 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - NFP Day!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautiously optimistic, balancing solid underlying economic data with persistent concerns over geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions. Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants expect the Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Future monetary policy decisions will likely be data-dependent, especially as the central bank closely monitors inflation trends influenced by tariff-induced cost pressures. Global Impact: International markets are bracing for mixed outcomes. Trade tensions and the ripple effects from tariffs on major partners are expected to create uneven performance across regions, with Europe and Asia particularly in focus as they adjust to shifting supply chain dynamics. Below is an assessment of the potential impact of today's USA Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, given the prevailing market sentiment: Strong NFP Data: A robust jobs report is likely to bolster the U.S. dollar, as improved employment figures can reinforce expectations for a tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This outcome could increase investor confidence in the domestic economy; however, given existing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, the upside for risk assets might be tempered by renewed concerns about inflationary pressures. Weak NFP Data: A disappointing jobs report may weaken the U.S. dollar, as softer employment data could lead to expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy in the near term. This scenario might trigger heightened market volatility, with investors shifting toward safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold, reflecting an amplified risk-off sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH. 🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios: Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and we would expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal) Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal) 🔹With Today NFP, news volatility will determine for me for next week a clear direction. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Price reached the Weak Swing High (4H CHoCH) sweeping the liquidity and turning INT structure to bearish with iBOS. 🔹Technically on the 15m I’d expect price to continue bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT structures which aligns with the 4H Bearish INT Structure continuation to target the Weak INT Low. 🔹My concern is that the 4H Swing is Bullish, we mitigated the extreme discount and currently in the continuation to target the 4H Weak Swing High. 🔹I prefer to follow the 15m current bearish Structure till we align the 15m Swing with the 4H Swing. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue Bearish targeting the 15m Weak Swing Low
by Amr-Sadek
2
EURUSD 5 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - EU PPI - US ADP/PMIThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 5 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Investors remain cautious but are gradually finding footing after recent bouts of volatility linked to aggressive trade measures and policy uncertainty. The sentiment can best be described as a mix of risk aversion amid global trade tensions and a tentative willingness to engage as economic data remains broadly resilient. The U.S. dollar has experienced modest strength but remains under pressure due to the broader uncertainty in trade dynamics and the potential for escalating tariffs, particularly from ongoing actions against major trade partners even with pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The target is Europe. Federal Reserve Outlook: While the recent policy stance has been one of a pause, the Fed is expected to continue monitoring inflationary trends closely. Any future adjustments to monetary policy are likely to be data-dependent, with the current sentiment suggesting that policymakers will remain cautious amid trade-induced uncertainties. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹With the Bearish iBOS, price confirmed the Swing pullback phase. 🔹We reached the Swing extreme demand which triggered a V-shape reaction indicating the bullish continuation. 🔹Price is currently targeting the liquidity (CHoCH) at 1.04342 (15m Swing High). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish for the Bullish 4H Swing Continuation after reaching the Swing Extreme Demand. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, price pulled back with series of Bullish INT structures reaching the 4H Supply and the 15m Swing extreme. 🔹While the 4H Swing Structure is Bullish, 15m Swing still Bearish. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish to sweep the 4H liquidity (Forming a Bullish
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 3 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - Taste of Trade WAR!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment " Strike the bound, and the free will take heed " Market Volatility and Geopolitical Strategy: Assessing the Implications of a Trump Presidency Recent market movements underscore a critical narrative: A second Trump administration carries significant potential to reignite the trade policy volatility that defined his first term. Historical precedent offers a clear lens—within weeks of taking office in 2017, President Trump implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, upending decades of trade consensus. Investors initially dismissed these measures as negotiation tactics, but markets are now pricing in a more structural shift. As of this week’s open, risk-on sentiment reflects renewed acceptance of Trump’s uncompromising stance, particularly following his social media assertion that “the pain from tariffs will be worth the price.” A Businessman’s Approach to Geopolitics Trump’s career as a dealmaker suggests a presidency anchored in transactional realism. His administration’s “America First” doctrine—evident in the rapid escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—demonstrates a willingness to weaponize economic policy to recalibrate global alliances. This strategy aligns with a proverb often cited in Egyptian diplomacy: “Strike the bound, and the free will take heed.” By aggressively targeting key partners (the “bound”), the U.S. signals resolve to broader adversaries (the “free”), including Europe and emerging economies. Strategic Outlook for Investors With 205 weeks remaining in a hypothetical term, market participants should prepare for sustained turbulence. The 2018-2019 trade war eroded nearly $1.7 trillion in global equity value; a second iteration could prove more disruptive given today’s fragmented supply chains and inflationary pressures. In conclusion, while Trump’s policies may inject short-term uncertainty, they also recalibrate the playbook for global engagement. Investors who disentangle rhetoric from actionable strategy will be best positioned to navigate this paradigm. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹At Swing Extreme 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹With Risk-On sentiment, market opened with a gap down reaching the extreme Swing Low. 🔹The expected move is done with the market open. More development is required on LTFs. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is to continue bearish as long the Risk-On sentiment is still active and no soft tone from Trump in regards to Tariffs. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, but currently the Risk-On sentiment is the main theme (Technical will follow sentiment) so not currently expecting a valuable pullback phase for the bearish BOS. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set for price to continue bearish and fulfill the Daily Bearish continuation.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 - Weekly Analysis - Tariffs Impact & NFP This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment Weekly Chart Analysis Daily Chart Analysis 4H Chart Analysis Economic Events for the Week Market Sentiment On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, effective immediately. The tariffs include a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures are intended to address issues such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and trade imbalances. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation to assess the potential economic impact of the new tariffs. The primary concerns include: Inflation: The tariffs are expected to raise the cost of imported goods, which could contribute to higher inflation rates. This development may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to adjustments in interest rates to manage inflationary pressures. Economic Growth: The increased costs for businesses and consumers may dampen economic growth. The Fed will need to balance the risks of slowing growth with the potential for rising inflation when considering future policy actions. In summary, the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has introduced significant uncertainty into the markets. Investors are concerned about the potential for increased costs and supply chain disruptions, while the Federal Reserve is evaluating the implications for inflation and overall economic growth. Weekly Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Internal Bearish 🔹In Swing Discount 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS) 3️⃣ 🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase. 🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS. 🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium). 🔹Price had tapped into the Weekly Demand formed from the Bullish CHoCH last week. Is this demand enough to initiate the INT Pullback or with the current market sentiment and USD expectation to strength in the short-term we will continue Bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT Structures to target the Weak INT Low and Weak Swing Low? 🔹Expectations for price react from the current Weekly demand and then target the Weak INT Low to target the Weak Swing Low. Daily Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal) 2️⃣ 🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone. 3️⃣ 🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone. 🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low. 🔹Currently price tapping into a Daily/Weekly Demand Zones which could provide some bounce / or reversal for price to continue up (Depends on market Sentiment and if tariffs will trigger Risk-Off and USD Strength or it’s already priced in from last week strength in USD). 🔹Expectation is set to Bearish and more LTF development required to have a clear view. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Reached Swing EQ 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Price managed to create a Bearish iBOS indicating that the Swing Pullback started. 🔹After the iBOS, we expect a Pullback. 3️⃣ 🔹Price currently tapping into the Daily/Weekly demand which could provide a short-term pullback (waiting for at least a Bullish CHoCH to confirm). 🔹Expectation is set to have a reaction from the Daily / 4H Demand zone to facilitate the pullback (Aligns with the Daily/Weekly expectations) then we will continue bearish to facilitate the Daily / Weekly expectations of bearish move. Economic Events for the Week
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 31 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB CPI - US Core PCEThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment The combination of the Fed's steady rate policy and the administration's aggressive trade measures has led to a cautious market outlook. Investors are balancing optimism about domestic economic resilience with concerns over potential disruptions from international trade tensions. Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate. Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration. Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments. Economic Reports today: ECB CPI Expectations and US Core PCE. Overall, while the U.S. economy continues to exhibit strength, uncertainties stemming from trade policies and geopolitical factors are contributing to a mixed market sentiment. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price managed yesterday to create a Bullish CHoCH but again demand failed today which again adds the confluence that the Daily and 4H bearish move is in control and there is a HP that we are going to break the 4H INT Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹At Swing Extreme Discount 2️⃣ 🔹Price managed yesterday with US News and Lagarde Press Conference to create a Bullish BOS. 🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, where price pulled back to the Bullish Swing Extreme. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish based on the Daily Bearish Continuation, 4H Swing Pullback and the current market sentiment.
by Amr-Sadek
EURUSD 30 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday Analysis - ECB Rate / LagardeThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 30 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Federal Reserve's Decision: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate. Fed's Outlook: Chair Powell emphasized a cautious approach, indicating no immediate plans to adjust rates and highlighting the need to assess the economic impacts of forthcoming policies from the Trump administration. Presidential Response: President Donald Trump criticized the Fed's decision, attributing ongoing inflation issues to the central bank's policies and pledging to address inflation through measures such as enhancing energy production, deregulation, and trade adjustments. Heavy Economic Reports today: Starting with EUR Unemployment, GDP, ECB Interest Rate / Lagarde Press Conference to US GDP and Core PCE. Overall, the market sentiment reflects a blend of caution and anticipation as investors monitor the interplay between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the administration's fiscal initiatives. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish 🔹INT Bullish 🔹Swing Continuation after BOS 2️⃣ 🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start. 🔹With price failing to close above Weak INT High, there is a HP that we are going to target the INT Low which will facilitate the Bullish Swing Pullback. 🔹Price is currently mitigating the large 4H Demand zone but failing till now to do something significant (At least a Bullish CHoCH). 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is set for price to continue Bearish to target the Strong INT Low to facilitate the 4H Bullish Swing Pullback and the Daily Bearish Continuation. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹Swing Continuation 2️⃣ 🔹Swing is continuing bearish with a new bearish BOS. 🔹After a BOS we expected a pullback which already reached the Swing Premium and mitigated the 15m / 4H supply zones. 🔹No clear INT structure within the Swing but the Fractal is currently bearish indicating the bearish swing pullback could be over and we are currently forming the Swing continuation phase to target the weak Swing Low. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectation is for price to continue bearish (4H INT low to be broken) but to be cautious that we still within the 4H demand that is not fully mitigated.
by Amr-Sadek