Structure-trade
SPX500 (4H) is coiling into a wedge patternSPX500 (4H) is coiling into a wedge pattern the centre of the consolidation is around the 216x zone. Both the 20 and the 50 SMA have flattened. The price action seems rather balanced. It should however be noted that the last dominant move was a swing low. There is immediate resistance at the 217x zone and immediate support at the 214x zone.
SPX500 (Daily) trading sideways and below the 50 SMASPX500 (Daily) has been trading sideways and below the 50 SMA. Price halted it advance without tagging 2200, then fell sharply to the 38.2% retracement of the previous up swing. The uptrend that started February 11 2016 is still in tact since price has not broken any significant swing low. Currently most of the price action is contained within the bearish candle created September 9 2011.
USOIL (4H) trading above $50. Will it hold?USOIL (4H) Oil is trading slightly above $50. Will more buyers step in and push prices higher or is it time for the bulls to take profits? There is significant separation between the current price and the 50 SMA. Are the bulls willing to keep buying at these prices or will they prefer a retracement to the moving average before taking prices higher? "The trend is your friend until it bends" It is always tempting to short prices as it test resistance zones. However if I am a bear, I would prefer to wait for confirmation and have prices holding pullbacks (at last) below the 20 SMA before considering short opportunities.
USOIL (Daily) Oil trading into resistance.USOIL (Daily) still in an uptrend starting from the lows created on February 11 2016. Price is however at resistance at $50 as well as the 61.8% retracement of the previous down swing. This zone is also a previous swing high. The last two times the market approached this zone it turned lower. Will the market turn lower again? or will price trades to the top of the bull channel? Will the bulls take profit here? A strong break of this level could indicate a continuation of the upward momentum. However watch out for false breaks. Both bulls and bears should carefully watch the price action and wait for conformation.
GBPUSD (4H) price bounces off the 161.8% extensionOn the GBPUSD (4H) chart, price is trading close to the low of the bear channel after bouncing off the 161.8% (at 1.2690x) extension of a prior swing low. Since we are currently trading below the range lows, I would expect this area to act as resistance. The market is over extended and there is significant separation between price and the 50 SMA as well as the 20 SMA. Expect some ratracement back to those moving averages was well as the top of the bear channel.
GBPUSD (Daily) price broke the low of the trading rangeOn the GBPUSD (Daily) chart, price has broken through the low of a trading range. It is also at the low of a down channel. Until there is a clear breakout from the range, I am looking for range rotation. Hence I am expecting price to return to the top of the range. Note that since the sharp move down (resulting from the Brexit vote) the 38.2% retracement has not been tested. This is close to the top of the range.
EURUSD (4H) Trade from the edges and avoid the middleThis is such a CHOP. Trade from the edges of the support and resistance zones and avoid the middle. There is resistance above the consolidation zone (1.125xx - 1.128xx). The top (down channel) line will also act as resistance.
Support is at the down channel low as well as between (1.112xx - 1.114xx) where the market has bounced several times.
However expect these support/resistance zones to be probed and broken as the market is simply chopping sideways with no clear short term direction.
EURUSD (Daily) continues to chop sidewaysOn the Daily chart the EURUSD continues to chop sideways. This has been the case from the beginning of September 2016. Currently price appears to be supported by the 50 SMA and chops between the 1.11 to the 1.13 zone with 1.12 acting as support and resistance at times. Overall we are still in a bearish trend since we have not broken the down channel line.
If I am a bull; If I am a bear;If I am a bull;
Look for buying opportunities at the 1.3 support zone or the low of the bull channel with targets being the top of the bull channel or the 161.8% extension, 78.6% retracement confluence. Remember the bear channel high (4H chart) which will act as falling resistance.
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If I am a bear;
Wait for strong break and weak retest of the 1.3 zone and also a break of the bull channel lows before looking for short opportunities.
GBPUSD 1.3000 round number acting as supportOn the 4H chart the GBPUSD is in a string down trend. Price is currently at the top of the bear channel. However the 1.3 round number has acted as support. Expect further down move if price breaks the 1.3 zone, at least to support at 1.293x zone. If price breaks (upward) the down channel expect the previous high (1.3120) to be tested which is close to the 61.8% retracement of the swing low that started on September 9.
If I am a bull? If I am a bear?If I am a bull?
Price is bouncing off the 1.2 support zone as well as the lows of the bull channel. Look for buying opportunities with targets at 1) previous structure highs 1.127x 2) 127.2% extension at 1.129x. Buy retracements if price trades towards the channel highs.
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If I am a bear?
Price seems to be supported at the 1.2 round number which is also previous resistance that turned into support. We are also at the bull channel low. I would wait for a strong break down and a weak retest of this zone before considering short opportunities.
If I am a bull? If I am a bear?If I am a bull?
Price is bouncing off the 20 SMA. There is however overhead resistance (previous high at $47.72), bull channel high and wedge high to work through. Instead of buying into resistance, wait for a deeper retracement before buying or wait for a strong breakout of resistance with a weak retest before buying.
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If I am a bear?
After such a strong move yesterday (based on OPEC announcement to cut oil production) bears should be patient before taking short opportunities. Price is currently at the high of the bull channel and close to the wedge high (4H chart). This however does not means that price will automatically reverse. Strong moves are usually followed by another leg up. Wait for price action to turn bearish at these resistance zones before considering short trades. Look for strong breakdown pullbacks. Target could be the low of the bull channel. There is also resistance at $46 zone.
Oil is now at the top of a wedge pattern on the 4H chartOil is now at the top of a wedge pattern on the 4H chart. Look to see how price reacts at this falling resistance. It is also close to the 127.2% extension ($47.53) of the previous swing high. The previous high of $47.72 created on September 8 could also act as resistance. Look to buy retracements but be aware of overhead resistance zones. Look for reversal patterns at these resistance levels.
Oil surges higher as OPEC agreed to reduce its oil outputOil surges higher as OPEC agreed on Wednesday to reduce its oil output to 32.5 million bpd from the current production levels of around 33.24 million bpd.
Price approaching higher selling zone at 47.5x - 47.7x. Look for bearish price action.
Look for pullback into support for buying opportunities.
Price approaching selling zone. Look for bearish price action.USOIL (1h) Price approaching selling zone. Look for bearish price action.
USOIL - IF I AM A BULL? IF I AM A BEAR?IF I AM A BULL: Buy pullbacks as price rotates to the top of the bear channel. Targets are at the top of the bear channel or the 46.20 - 46.50 zone.
IF I AM A BEAR: Sell failures at the top of the bear channel. Price is currently at the 61.8% retracement. If price action confirms it as also possible to short at this level with targets at the low of the bear channel. You can also buy a strong break and pullback of the low of the bear channel or the 44.20 level.
As always wait for price action to confirm.
XAUUSD: A Return to Previous StructureTypically a rally is what i would expect from this type of falling wedge formation, however because it's in the middle of nowhere the bullish move isn't on my radar. What would be on my radar is a move back up into previous structure support which could potentially act as support now looking for a continuation to the downside.
IF I AM A BULL? IF I AM A BEAR?IF I AM A BULL: Wait to buy the bull channel low or previous swing lows. Or wait to buy a pullback into the 1.3000 region after a strong move higher.
IF I AM A BEAR: Wait to sell the 38.2%, 61.8% retracement which might coincide with the bear channel high and previous swing high. My two sell zones are show on the chart.
GBPUSD Price structure analysis (4H)GBPUSD (4H) The downward momentum is slowing down. Price has traded sideways for a couple of days below the 1.3000 level which as acted as resistance. It also at the 78.6% retracement.I am still bearish because we have a down channel and trading below the 50 SMA. Price is now at the 20 SMA which is flattening out due to the sideways price action.
